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Roadmap to Space Settlement Roadmap to Space Settlement Third Edition the magazine of the National Space Society 2019 Issue 2018-5 JOIN THE TEAM FOR SPACE Get adAstra, the award winning magazine of the National Space Society. FROM XPRIZE to the International Space Station, from the Moon to Mars and beyond, the NSS is at the forefront of the new space age. New members can join now for a special introductory rate of only $20 and get a one year subscription to Ad Astra, the only magazine of its kind! MEMBERSHIP MAKES A GREAT GIFT! Bring the gift of space to someone new, and give them the special feeling that comes with knowing they are supporting the greatest adventure of our time. ENJOY ALL THE MEMBER BENEFITS NSS AWARD-WINNING QUARTERLY MAGAZINE • DOWNLINK NEWSLETTER EVERY 2 WEEKS ACCESS TO LOCAL CHAPTERS • FREE PROMOTIONAL ITEMS INVITATIONS & DISCOUNTS TO NSS SPONSORED EVENTS • INTRODUCTORY PRICE OF $20 FOR MORE INFO: space.nss.org | [email protected] | 949.727.1211 THE NATIONAL SPACE SOCIETY EXTENDS ITS THANKS TO THE FOLLOWING INDIVIDUALS WHO CONTRIBUTED TO THE CREATION OF THIS DOCUMENT: John Strickland Fred Becker David Brandt-Erichsen Al Globus Ron Kohl Claire McMurray Doug Plata Stan Rosen Pierre Saint-Fleur FOR the magazine of the National Space Society Rod Pyle Aggie Kobrin Shaun Kobrin Michele Rodriguez COVER IMAGE CREDIT: James Vaughn Roadmap to Space Settlement 2019 3 CONTENTS 5 INTRODUCTION 7 PART ONE: General Milestones 8 MILESTONE 1 Dramatically Lower Launch Costs to Orbit 23 MILESTONE 12 10 MILESTONE 2 In-Space Fabrication & Construction Continuous Human of Large Pressurized & Unpressurized Occupancy in Low-Earth Orbit Single-Piece Structures 11 MILESTONE 3 24 PART TWO: Development of a Space Utilization and Development Tourism Industry of Cislunar Space 12 MILESTONE 4 24 MILESTONE 13 Establishment of In-Space Use of Space Technology and Commerce by Private Companies Resources on & for Earth 38 PART FOUR: 13 MILESTONE 5 26 MILESTONE 14 On to Mars Crew Habitats for Use An Integrated Cislunar Space Beyond Low-Earth Orbit Transportation & Logistics 39 MILESTONE 22 System Robotic Exploration of Mars 14 MILESTONE 6 for Local (In Situ) Resources Use of Rotational Artificial 27 MILESTONE 15 Gravity for Habitats & Industry Robust Space Infrastructure 41 MILESTONE 23 for Human & Robotic Operations An Integrated Martian Space 15 MILESTONE 7 Transportation & Logistics System Legal Protection of 28 MILESTONE 16 Property & Other Rights Development of the First 45 MILESTONE 24 Equatorial Low-Earth Orbit A Continuously Occupied 16 MILESTONE 8 Multi-Purpose Mars Surface Base Land Grants or Other Economic Settlement Incentives for Space Settlement 29 MILESTONE 17 46 MILESTONE 25 A True Martian Settlement 17 MILESTONE 9 Space Solar Power System Technology for Adequate 47 PART FIVE: Self-Sufficiency 31 PART THREE: To the Moon Asteroid Mining and Orbital Space 19 MILESTONE 10 Settlements 32 MILESTONE 18 Demonstration of Multi-Generational 47 MILESTONE 26 Human Survival off Earth Robotic Confirmation of Lunar Resources Robotic Characterization of Asteroids 21 MILESTONE 11 33 MILESTONE 19 48 MILESTONE 27 An Effective Asteroid Utilization of Asteroids Protection System A Lunar Research and Development Facility 49 MILESTONE 28 35 MILESTONE 20 Development of Orbital Space A Continuously Occupied Settlements Multi-Purpose Lunar Base 51 PART SIX: 37 MILESTONE 21 Additional Expansion and Greater A Permanent Lunar Settlement Sustainability of Human Civilization 51 MILESTONE 29 Terraforming and Para-Terraforming 53 MILESTONE 30 Development of Interstellar Travel and Settlement 55 MILESTONE 31 Survival of Humanity via Space Settlement 56 CONCLUDING REMARKS 4 Roadmap to Space Settlement 2019 INTRODUCTION Kalpana 1 orbital space settlement for 3,000 people. Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com The National Space Society (NSS) is a nonprofit educational Earth. These two elements of the vision are intertwined. organization whose Vision Statement is: “People living and The development of space-based products and services for working in thriving communities beyond the Earth and the use the people of Earth will require a human presence in space, of the vast resources of space for the dramatic betterment of and this presence will enable and motivate the expansion humanity.” of our species away from our planet. This vision of space settlement embraces both space as NSS believes that space development and settlement will a future second home for humanity in the form of a free, occur most efficiently, and humanity’s prosperity will be spacefaring civilization, and the resources of space (such best ensured, if the free market drivers of competition and as the sun’s energy for space-based solar power, extra- profit are central to these efforts, and every individual is terrestrial minerals for raw materials, and low-gravity for given full freedom of thought and action. manufacturing) being used for the benefit of everyone on Roadmap to Space Settlement 2019 5 INTRODUCTION continued Interior of Kalpana 1 orbital space settlement. Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com GENERAL DRIVERS FOR SPACE SETTLEMENT While the roadmap to some extent highlights what can and should be done by the United States, which to date has been There are a multitude of forces pushing for space settlement. the leader in off-Earth space exploration and development, Some of the most important reasons, rationales, and goals are: it is equally applicable to all countries. Eventually, all • Improving the quality of life on Earth. nations may participate in achieving this vision and reaping • Providing space-based services via satellites to Earth, its fruits. such as improved communications, remote sensing, NSS has defined 31 major milestones based on our current navigation, and weather prediction. knowledge and perspective. These can be achieved with • Greatly enhancing the chances for the long-term incremental advances in current technologies. However, survival of humanity and other Earth species by ending researchers around the world are pushing the frontiers of the “all of the eggs in one basket” problem. In the words science in many fields, and new breakthroughs may enable of poet Leslie Fish, “If you would not perish then grow.” us to leapfrog currently accepted milestones at any time. • Developing and using space resources to reduce Some of these milestones must be reached prior to the humanity’s reliance on Earth-based resources and settlement of cislunar space, the Moon, Mars, asteroids, industry. and eventually, other star systems. Specific milestones then • Protecting Earth and its environment from asteroid follow for each of these destinations. These milestones are impacts and climate change. presented here, with commentary on their current status, A future that includes the expansion of humanity into space along with the changes and developments necessary to is vastly preferable to one in which we are limited to the reach them. resources of Earth. Surpassing these milestones will require a combination This roadmap describes the major milestones to be met, and of governmental and nongovernmental efforts. The goals the primary barriers to be overcome, to achieve the NSS Vision. of populating space and utilizing its resources must be In this context, a milestone is an accomplishment or event that pursued by multiple governments and a variety of private significantly promotes or advances any of the reasons, rationales, groups, and while political and economic factors will drive or goals listed above. These milestones should not be thought much of this activity, the settlement of space will ultimately of as arranged along a single route, but instead marking major be driven by the basic human need to survive and thrive. nodes along the branches of different possibilities. 6 Roadmap to Space Settlement 2019 PART ONE: Interior of Kalpana 1 orbital space settlement. Credit: Bryan Versteeg, spacehabs.com GENERAL MILESTONES GENERAL BARRIERS TO SPACE SETTLEMENT Psychological. Psychological issues include: • Claustrophobic responses to enclosed and confined Barriers will be encountered at each stage of space space habitats, triggered by the knowledge that one settlement. A barrier is defined as a substantial obstacle to cannot leave the habitat at any time (unless wearing a achieving a milestone, and it must be overcome before that pressure suit), and a constant awareness of a possible milestone can be accomplished. loss of air pressure. Technical. There are technical barriers to providing safe, • Isolation from others due to communication delays to reliable, efficient, and inexpensive transport to, from, and from Earth. and between locations in space. There are also technical • Lack of exposure to a “natural” (Earth-like) environment difficulties in creating the needed infrastructure, human (“nature-deficit disorder”). habitats, and industrial sites in space. The creation of • Challenges inherent in social interactions within a reliable reusable rocket boosters remains a technical population that is initially limited in size. barrier, though this is changing rapidly. Another significant Social. For alleged safety reasons, governments may be barrier is the lack of mitigation of debris in Earth orbit. tempted to limit the ability of private individuals to organize Biological. Physiological barriers to human space settlement and undertake space ventures or to voluntarily accept include human responses to microgravity in non-rotating the risks involved in spaceflight. If there had been such space habitats (e.g.,
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