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Perception of Aquifer Depletion and the Effects of Land Use Change Across the Madaba Plain, Jordan Mohammad Salem University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

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Perception of Aquifer Depletion and the Effects of Land Use Change Across the Madaba Plain, Jordan Mohammad Salem University of Arkansas, Fayetteville University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ScholarWorks@UARK Theses and Dissertations 12-2011 Perception of Aquifer Depletion and the Effects of Land Use Change Across the Madaba Plain, Jordan Mohammad Salem University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd Part of the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons Recommended Citation Salem, Mohammad, "Perception of Aquifer Depletion and the Effects of Land Use Change Across the Madaba Plain, Jordan" (2011). Theses and Dissertations. 152. http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/152 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. Perception of Aquifer Depletion and the Effects of Land Use Change Across the Madaba Plain, Jordan Perception of Aquifer Depletion and the Effects of Land Use Change Across the Madaba Plain, Jordan A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Dynamics By Mohammad Salem University of New Orleans Bachelor of Arts in Anthropology, 1998 University of Arkansas Master of Arts in Geography, 2002 December 2011 University of Arkansas Abstract In Jordan, demand for water for agricultural purposes has put a high strain on aquifer resources. Water mining, erosion, and desertification have all increased as global temperatures rise. This along with fragmentation of the landscape have altered the environment in a profound way. The Madaba Plain was chosen for this study due to the agricultural activities that take place there, as well as the proximity to a number of population centers. The purpose of the study is to examine how fragmentation of irrigated landscape has affected the aquifers underneath, while taking into account perceptions of risk of the local population. Data for the study was acquired through a number of sources. Demographic and Likert Scale data were obtained by distributing written surveys that participants completed and returned. Remotely-sensed data were obtained from the USGS through the glovis.gov website for the years of 1991, 1998, 2002, and 2006. Finally, groundwater data were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation in Amman. The results of the study showed some surprising and unanticipated trends. Generally, the Likert scale answers had a low mean, and showed that respondents did not have much awareness about any of the hazards put before them. The awareness levels did demonstrate a geographic trend, where awareness generally increased from north to south. While landuse between the four time periods did not change significantly, depth to water measurements showed high variability. Analysis of continuity index for the study showed no significant relationships between fragmentation and water depth. This dissertation is approved for Recommendation to the Graduate Council Dissertation Director: _______________________________________ Dr. Thomas R. Paradise Dissertation Committee: _______________________________________ Dr. Van Brahana _______________________________________ Dr. Jackson Cothren Dissertation Duplication Release I hereby authorize the University of Arkansas Libraries to duplicate this dissertation when needed for research and/or scholarship. Agreed __________________________________________ Mohammad Salem Refused __________________________________________ Mohammad Salem Acknowledgements I would like to thank God for giving me the opportunity to complete my education at the University of Arkansas. I would also like to thank the Jordan Ministry of Water and Irrigation for their assistance in providing the data needed for this study. This study could not have happened with out their cooperation. I would like to thank Abu Mohammad, Yasine, Ahmed, and others that helped me implement the surveys in Jordan. I would also like to thank the faculty and staff at the University of Arkansas who have provided guidance throughout this study. This includes my colleagues at the Center for Advanced Spatial Technologies that assisted me with my many questions. I would like to give thanks to the Middle East studies program as well as the King Fahd Center for Middle East and Islamic studies for years of support. I would especially like to thank the members of my committee, Dr. Tom Paradise, Dr. Van Brahana and Dr. Jackson Cothren for their guidance throughout this process. Finally, I would like to thank my friends and family who supported me through this journey. Dedication I would like to dedicate this work to my wife, Hanadi Salem, whose love and support helped drive me to complete this body of work. Thank you for all you have done for me. Table of Contents I. Introduction ……………………….…………………….…………………….. 1 II. Study Area ………………………………………………………………….... 6 A. Location ……………………………………………………………... 6 B. Climate ................................................................................................ 18 III. Literature Review …………………………………………………………..... 24 A. Historical Climate Change ………………………………………….. 24 B. Land Laws and Taxation …………………………………………..... 30 C. Water Law and Policy ……………………………………………..... 39 D. Perception of Risk …………………………………………………... 48 E. Summary ............................................................................................. 53 IV. Methodology………………………………………………………………..... 55 A. Likert Scale Survey Methodology ………………………………..…. 55 B. Water Depth and Land Use Methods …………………………..……. 57 V. Results ………………………………………………………………...….. 70 A. Likert Survey Results ………………………………………..……… 70 B. Aquifer and Landuse Change Results ………………………..……... 78 VI. Discussion ……………………………………………………….................. 89 A. Analysis: Correlations and Crosstabulations …………………...…… 89 B. Analysis: Land Use and Water Depths ………………………….…... 107 C. Summary of Findings …………………………………….…….…..... 124 VII. Conclusion ………………………………………………………. ………... 134 A. Recommendations …………………………………….…………….. 135 B. Summary .............................................................................................. 140 VIII. Works Cited ………………………………………………………….…… 142 IX: Appendix …………………………………………………………..…….….. 152 Appendix A-1: Demographic Data …………............……………..…... 153 Appendix A-2: Demographic Data Continuation ….………………..….. 161 Appendix A-3: Likert Data …………………………………………....... 168 Appendix B: Jenks Classification Ranges…………………………...…. 180 Appendix C: Likert questions and Location ……………..……... 182 Appendix D-1: Average Water Depths at Water Stations ………............ 185 Appendix D-2: Distribution of Well Points and Yearly Depth to Water ... 189 Appendix E: Spearman’s Rho Correlation Table …………………….. 195 Appendix F: Continuity of Irrigated area………………………………. 198 Appendix G: Summary of Likert Scale Results ……………………..... 200 Appendix H: Pictures from the Madaba Plain ……………………….... 203 Tables 1.1 Water Uses for 1997 …………………………………………….……… 1 2.1 Population Growth Rates in the Levant……………….…………………. 18 2.2 Impacts on Water Resources …………………………………….……… 19 3.1 Agricultural Production 1923 – 1953 ……………………………….…… 37 3.2 Size of Landholdings in 1950 ……………………………….………….. 38 3.3 Current Irrigation Water Tariff …………………………………….….... 44 3.4 Non-Licensed Well Costs ………………………………………….…… 44 3.5 Municipal Water Price ……………………………………………….…. 45 4.1 Distribution of Points per Monitoring Station …………………….…….. 58 4.2 Error of Interpolation Methods …………………………………….…… 61 4.3 Observed distance between points …………………................…..……. 63 4.4 Distribution of Wavelengths for Landsat TM ……………………..……. 66 4.5 Scenes Used for the Study ……………………………………….….….. 66 4.6 Ground Truthing Data …………………......…………………….….….. 67 5.1 Location vs. Gender …………………………………………….……… 74 5.2 Percent Changes of the Different Classes ………………………….…… 79 6.1 Descriptive Stats of the Zonal Data ……………………………….……. 108 6.2 Correlations of Depth to Water and Irrigated Agriculture ……….….….. 108 6.3 Seasonal Crop Change ……………………………………………..….… 118 Figures and Photographs 1.1 Comparison of Shifting Agricultural Practices………………………....... 4 2.1 Study Area Extent ………………………………………………….… 8 2.2 Relief Map Jordan ………………........................................….........… 9 2.3 Annual Rainfall in Jordan ………………………….............................… 10 2.4 Basic Geologic of Jordan ……………………………………………….. 11 2.5 Relief Map of Study Area including Wadis .............................................. 12 2.6 Average Rainfall in Madaba ..................................................................... 13 2.7 Geologic Map of Jordan ............................................................................ 14 2.8 Stratigraphy of Amman Wadi-Sir Aquifer ………………………….… 15 2.9 Aquifer Extents in the Study Area ………………………………….… 16 2.10 Soils of Amman ……………………………………………………….… 17 2.11 Schematic of Soil Erosion …………………………………………….… 21 3.1 Temperature Fluctuations of Pleistocene to Holocene Transition …….... 27 4.1 Subgovernates of Amman …………………………………………….… 56 4.2 Spatial distribution of observation wells ................................................... 60 4.2 Semivariogram of Interpolated Data ………………………………….… 63 4.3 Grid Polygon Created for Continuity Calculation …………………….… 69 5.1 Age and Marital Status Comparison ………………………………….…. 71 5.2 Results from the demographic portion of the questionnaire ………….… 73 5.3 Mean Awareness Rating ………………………………………………… 74 5.4 Results from the Likert
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