Power Struggles and Conflict Recurrence: an Examination Of
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POWERS fRUUGLES AND CONFLICT RECURRENCE: AN EXAMINATION OF POIXI !CAL COMPETITION IN MADAGASCAR By Sawyer Lee Blazek Submitted to the Faculty of the School oflnternational Service of American Umvers1ty Ill Partwl Fulfillment of the Requ~rcments Cor the Degree of rvla::,ter or Arts In InterncltJOnal Poht1c:-, Cha.r:~- Dr. Boa:z Atzilt / ~" '• - -~"'" ;.-:> <'~~·~-""' > -~ ------- --- >-y-- ;,;;..~--- ..,....-- ~:~ Dr. Kwaku Nuamah / w ~A__ ~---------- ---- Dean of the Sehoul of InternatiOnal Service -~_l __ ~ :2<J J I Date ~y 2011 American Umvers1ty Washmgton, D.C. 20016 AMERICAN UMVERSITY UBRMY I q12 \ ' UMI Number: 1504737 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI ___.Dissertation Publishing..___ UMI 1504737 Copyright 2011 by ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This edition of the work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Pro uesr ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml48106-1346 (()COPYRIGHT by Sawyer Lee Blazek 2011 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED POWER STRUGGLES AND CONFLICT RECURRENCE: AN EXAMINATION OF POLITICAL COMPETITION JN MADAGASCAR BY SAWYER LEE BLAZEK ABSTRACT This study examines the extent to which political power struggles have an effect on the recunence of conflict in a state. l create a model to examine the process of a political power struggle for the legitimate control of a state to measure the impact of particular events on an actor's political support. I then conduct an inductive examination of variables in the Malagasy political environment that may contribute to the instigation and recunence of conflict. This research reviews several theories of conflict and development and proposes a theory of internal power dynamics that examines a series of sin!:,TUlar events and identifies a fom1 of cyclical conflict. Madagascar is employed as the case study. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................... i LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................ vi Chapter 1. POWER STRUGGLES AND CONFLJCT RECURRENCE ................................ ! 1.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................... I 1.2 RESEARCH QUESTION ...................................................... 3 1.3 LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................... 3 1.3.1 Power. ................................................................. 3 1.3 .2 Political Competition ................................................ 4 1.3.3 Political Power Struggles ............................................ 6 1.3.4 Competitive Control.. ................................................ 11 1.3.5 Political Leadership .................................................. 12 1.3.6 Political Movement Management. ................................. 14 1.3. 7 Resources .............................................................. 15 1.3.8 Strategies and Tactics of Social and Political Resource Competition. I 7 1.3.9 Conflict Entrepreneurship and Conflict Cycles .................. 20 1.4 OUTLINE ........................................................................ 22 2. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY. ...................................... 23 2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................... 23 2.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE ..................................................... 23 2.3 SPECIFICATION OF THE VARIABLES ................................... 24 2.3.1 Independent Variables ............................................... 24 2.3.2 Dependent Variables ................................................. 24 2.3.3 Controlled Variables ................................................. 25 2.4 CASE SELECTION ............................................................ 26 2.5 CASE JUSTIFICATION ....................................................... 27 2.5.1 The 2009 Malagasy Political Crisis ................................ 28 2.5.2 Madagascar. ........................................................... 39 2.6 RESEARCH DESIGN .......................................................... 31 2.6.1 Phase One: Power Struggle Modeling ............................. 31 2.6.2 Phase Two: Deductive and Inductive Examination .............. 33 2.7 DATA REQUIREMENTS AND COLLECTION ........................... 35 2.7.1 Media Review ......................................................... 35 2.7.2 Structured Open-Ended Interviews ................................. 36 11 2.8 DESIGN JUSTIFICATION .................................................... 37 2.9 PRELIMINARY HYPOTHESIS .............................................. 38 3. A BRIEF HISTORY OF MALAGASY POLITICAL COMPETITION ........... 40 3.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................... 40 3.2 PHILIBERT TSlRANANA, 1960-1972 ..................................... .41 3.3 MILITARY TRANSITION 1972-1975 ...................................... .44 3.4 DIDIER RATSIRAKA, 1975-1992 .......................................... .45 3.5 ALBERT ZAFY, 1992-1996 ................................................... 48 3.6 DIDIER RATSIRAKA, 1996-2001 .......................................... .48 3.7 MARC RAVALOMANANA, 2001-2009 ................................... .49 3.8 THE 2009 MALAGASY POLITICAL CRISIS ............................. 52 3.8.1 The Causes ofConflict. .............................................. 52 3.8.2 November to December 2008 ....................................... 54 3.8.3 January, 2009 ......................................................... 56 3.8.4 February, 2009 ........................................................ 59 3.8.5 March, 2009 ........................................................... 63 3.8.6 May 2009 to March 2011 ............................................ 67 3.9 CONCLUSION .................................................................. 70 4. MODELING THE 2009 MALAGASY POLITICAL CRISIS ...................... 72 4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................... 72 4.2 HYPOTHESIS FORMULATION ............................................. 72 4.2.1 Preliminary Hypothesis .............................................. 73 4.3 MODELING THE 2009 MALAGASY POLITICAL CRISIS ............ 73 4.4 INITIAL OBSERVATIONS ................................................... 75 4.5 MEASUREMENT CONCERNS .............................................. 77 4.5.1 Margin ofError ....................................................... 77 4.5.2 Qualitative Scoring ................................................... 78 4.5.3. Initial Scoring ......................................................... 78 4.6 STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL OBSERVATJONS ....................... 79 4.6.1 Action-Reaction .................................................... 80 4.6.2 Refom1-Rigidity .................................................... 81 4.6.3Inclusion-Exclusion ................................................. 82 4. 7 ANALYSIS OF EVENT IMP ACTS .......................................... 84 4. 7.1 Critical Events ......................................................... 84 4.7.2 February 7, 2009 ...................................................... 85 4.8 ANALYSIS OF ACTORS' ACTIONS ....................................... 86 4.8.1 Marc Ravalomanana ................................................. 86 4.8.2 Andry Rajoelina ...................................................... 88 4.9 CONCLUSION .................................................................. 91 111 5. EXAMINING THE MALAGASY POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT .................. 94 5.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................ 94 5.2 POLITICAL STRUCTURES ........................................................... 95 5.2.1 ''Warlord Politics·· ............................................................. 95 5.2.2 "The Men Behind the Curtains" ............................................. 95 5.2.3 Neopatrimonialism in Madagascar. ......................................... 97 5.3 POLITICAL NORMS ................................................................... 102 5.3 .I Challenges to Institutional Development. .................................. I 02 5.3.2 Political Divisiveness ......................................................... 104 5.3.2.1 Ethnicity ............................................................. 104 5.3.2.2 Biases in International Engagement. ............................. 105 5.3.3 Opportunism ................................................................... I 07 5.3.3.1 Conflict Entrepreneurship ......................................... I 07 5.3.3.2 111icit Trade Networks and Environmental Corruption ........ I 09 5.4 INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT ................................................ 114 5.4.1 Economic Sanctions and the Problem of Leverage ....................... 115 5.4.2 "The Principled vs. Pragmatic Approach" ................................. 118 5.5 CONCLUSION ........................................................................... 122 6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................. 125 6.1 INTRODUCTION