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3 IAI Research Papers T The IAI Research Papers are brief monographs written by one or This volume is the product of a conviction regarding the HE importance of sustainability in understanding Mediterranean C HE HALLENGES more authors (IAI or external experts) on current problems of inter- HALLENGES T C N. 1 European Security and the Future national politics and international relations. The aim is to promote politics. Too often state sustainability had been erroneously of Transatlantic Relations, greater and more up to date knowledge of emerging issues and edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Erik Jones, 2011 confused with regime stability. Not only are these two concepts OF STATE SUSTAINABILITY trends and help prompt public debate. N. 2 Democracy in the EU after the Lisbon Treaty, distinct, with sustainability being broader and deeper than edited by Raaello Matarazzo, 2011 stability. Also, pursuing regime stability has often acted to the OF S IN THE EDITERRANEAN A non-prot organization, IAI was founded in 1965 by Altiero Spinelli, M N. 3 The Challenges of State Sustainability in the Mediterranean, detriment of state sustainability. The conviction underpinning this TATE its rst director. edited by Silvia Colombo and Nathalie Tocci, 2011 research has been corroborated by the events that have S The Institute aims to promote understanding of international politics overwhelmed the Arab world since December 2010. Indeed, the USTAINABILITY through research, promotion of political ideas and strategies, disse- year 2011 will go down in history as a critical turning point in the mination of knowledge and education in the eld of foreign policy. IAI main research sectors are: European institutions and policies; political evolution of the Mediterranean region. The popular Italian foreign policy; trends in the global economy and internationa- uprisings that have swept across the Arab world and have led to lisation processes in Italy; the Mediterranean and the Middle East; PAPERS the toppling of the Ben Ali and the Mubarak regimes in Tunisia IN defence economy and policy; and transatlantic relations. and Egypt, have fundamentally altered the social, economic and THE political outlook of the region and, consequently, its relations with M the European Union. EDITERRANEAN RESEARCH SILVIA COLOMBO is Researcher at the Mediterranean & Middle East Department of the Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI). IAI NATHALIE TOCCI is Deputy Director of the Istituto Aari Internazionali Silvia Colombo and Nathalie Tocci and Associate Editor of The International Spectator, the IAI English language quarterly. Edited by Silvia Colombo and Nathalie Tocci www.nuovacultura.it 19.00 EURO IAI Research Papers The Challenges of State Sustainability in the Mediterranean Edited by Silvia Colombo and Nathalie Tocci Edizioni Nuova Cultura Acknowledgements This research and publication has been generously supported by the European Commission. Series Editor Natalino Ronzitti _________________________ First published 2011 by Edizioni Nuova Cultura For Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Via Angelo Brunetti 9 - I-00186 Roma www.iai.it Copyright © 2011Edizioni Nuova Cultura - Roma ISBN: 9788861347175 Cover: by the author Graphic Composition: by the author The unauthorized reproduction of this book, even partial, carried out by any means, including photocopying, even for internal or didactic use, is prohibited by copyright. Contents List of Contributors ........................................................................................................................ 7 List of Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................... 9 Preface ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Silvia Colombo, Nathalie Tocci 1. The Southern Mediterranean. Between Changes and Challenges to its Sustainability .......................................................................................................... 15 Silvia Colombo 2. Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition ............................... 59 Maria Cristina Paciello 3. Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition ............................... 101 Maria Cristina Paciello 4. Morocco at the Crossroads: Seizing the Window of Opportunity for Sustainable Development ................................................................................. 161 Silvia Colombo 5. Israel and Palestine and State (Un)sustainability ......................................... 193 Paolo Napolitano 6. Syria and Lebanon: Diverging Paths of State Unsustainability ............... 223 Silvia Colombo 7. State (Un)Sustainability in the Southern Mediterranean: The EU’s Response .......................................................................................................................... 256 Nathalie Tocci 5 List of Contributors SILVIA COLOMBO is a researcher and an expert on the Mediterranean and the Middle East at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome. PAOLO NAPOLITANO obtained his PhD in Political Science and International Relations from the University of Turin. MARIA CRISTINA PACIELLO is a researcher at the Istituto Affari Internazio- nali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. NATHALIE TOCCI is deputy director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome. 7 List of Abbreviations API Arab Peace Initiative CIB Comprehensive Institution Building CSO Civil Society Organisation DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement EIPR Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights EMHRN Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network EMP Euro-Mediterranean Partnership ENP European Neighbourhood Policy ENPI European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument ETUF Egyptian Trade Unions Federation EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FDTL Forum Démocratique pour le Travail et les Libertés GDP Gross Domestic Product GPC Gafsa Phosphate Company GWOT Global War on Terror HDI Human Development Index IFI International Financial Institution IMF International Monetary Fund INDH Initiative Nationale du Dévéloppement Humain JDP Justice and Development Party MB Muslim Brotherhood NDP National Democratic Party NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NPF National Progressive Front OPT Occupied Palestinian Territories PAM Authenticity and Modernity Party 9 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS PDP Parti démocratique progressiste PLO Palestine Liberation Organization PNA Palestinian National Authority PUP Parti de l'Unité Populaire RCD Rassemblement constitutionnel démocratique SME Small and Medium Enterprise SSI State Security Investigation Service STL Special Tribunal for Lebanon TI Transparency International UDU Union Democratique Unioniste UfM Union for the Mediterranean UGTT Union Générale des Travailleurs Tunisiens UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNGA United Nations General Assembly WB World Bank YRC Youth of the Revolution Coalition 10 Preface Silvia Colombo, Nathalie Tocci The year 2011 will go down in history as a critical turning point in the political evolution of the Mediterranean region. The popular uprisings that have swept across the Arab world and have led to the toppling of the Ben Ali and the Mubarak regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, have funda- mentally altered the social, economic and political outlook of the region and its relations with the European Union (EU). The ‘Arab Spring’, which has caught many by surprise, has contributed to bringing the Mediter- ranean in the international limelight. At the time of writing, some coun- tries of the region are enmeshed in violent conflict between entrenched regimes and a more or less structured opposition movement. Others are in the midst of a difficult and uncertain transition, in which elements of the old power structures are struggling with forces of change and inno- vation. Others still have embarked on a top-down process of reform aimed at satisfying popular demands and preventing a radicalisation of the protest movement. In response to the momentous events unfolding along its southern shores, the EU has embarked on a revision of its poli- cies towards the Mediterranean, and in particular of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). This volume collects revised and updated versions of the working papers produced in the framework of MEDPRO, a project financed by the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme.1 In view of their relevance to a micro-level analysis of conflict, they have been re- vised and published in the framework of MICROCON, an integrated project financed by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Pro- 1 Contract number: 244578. 11 SILVIA COLOMBO, NATHALIE TOCCI gramme.2 Its aim is to provide an original framework to analyse the dramatic developments in the southern Mediterranean. In fact, the project started before the outbreak of the ‘Arab Spring’ but, as the popu- lar uprisings unfolded, the research team concentrated its efforts on ex- amining and evaluating the implications of the new political develop- ments for the individual countries and for the region as a whole. The first versions of the MEDPRO working papers were published online be- tween November 2010 and July 2011. In particular, the first working paper by Silvia Colombo – chapter 1 of this volume – was published in November 2010, that is, some weeks before December 17th, when popu- lar protests began in Tunisia in response to the tragic act
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