Crafting Political Society the Role of Electoral Rules and Islamist Party Factions in Tunisia’S Democratic Transition
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Crafting Political Society The Role of Electoral Rules and Islamist Party Factions in Tunisia’s Democratic Transition By Brittany Dutton Senior Honors Thesis Submitted to the Department of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego March 30th, 2020 Acknowledgments I wish to express my deepest gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Maureen Feeley, for her invaluable expertise, support, and guidance throughout this entire academic journey. I will be forever grateful for the opportunity to indulge my obsession with Tunisia and write a thesis under her incredible supervision. I would also like to sincerely thank Dr. Daniel Butler and Dr. Kaare Strøm for their extremely help feedback and suggestions during this process, with additional thanks to Dr. Strøm for answering my virtually endless questions about electoral rules, party behavior, and coalition governments. I also extend my gratitude to Dr. Michael Provence and Dr. Dilşa Deniz for graciously lending me their time to discuss the role of political Islam in the Middle East and North Africa; to Annelise Sklar for providing invaluable research assistance last summer when I was preparing for my thesis; and to Michael Seese and my fellow thesis writers who provided feedback during the early stages of writing. Finally, I would like to thank my husband, my family, and my dearest friend, Sydney, for listening to endless iterations of my thesis for the past six months. I would not have been able to complete this journey without their support. 2 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4 Literature Review .................................................................................................................... 8 Chapter Outline ..................................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2: Ennahda Origins (1964-2010) .............................................................................. 16 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 16 Framework ............................................................................................................................ 18 Analysis................................................................................................................................. 23 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 53 Chapter 3: Ennahda Institutionalization (2011-2016) ........................................................... 56 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 56 Framework ............................................................................................................................ 57 Analysis................................................................................................................................. 59 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 73 Chapter 4: Interim Governments and Electoral Rules .......................................................... 77 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 77 Tunisia Analysis .................................................................................................................... 85 Egypt Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 99 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 116 Chapter 5: Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 118 Findings and Discussion ...................................................................................................... 118 Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 122 Concluding Remarks ........................................................................................................... 124 Works Cited .......................................................................................................................... 126 3 Chapter 1: Introduction Introduction The regimes of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have resisted democratization for so long that when the Arab Spring swept the region in 2010 and 2011, scholars, citizens, and political parties alike were caught completely off-guard. Authoritarians in the region, like Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, had long felt secure in their positions of power, bolstered by their key roles in the international “War on Terror” against Islamic fundamentalist groups.1 Egypt in particular enjoyed a special relationship with the United States because of its shared border with Israel.2 Despite years of growing civil unrest in both countries due to corruption and deplorable economic conditions, nothing in 2010 suggested that these countries would experience massive uprisings.3 Everything changed when 26-year old university graduate Tarek al-Tayeb Mohammed Bouazizi stood outside a municipal building in Tunisia and set himself on fire after the police confiscated his only means of earning an income—a produce cart.4 Bouazizi’s act of desperation on December 17, 2010, sparked Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution and unleashed a wave of protests across the region within a matter of weeks. By the middle of January, Tunisians had successfully ousted their president from office.5 Spurred by Tunisia’s success, Egypt’s January 25th Revolution quickly toppled Mubarak’s regime and for a moment there was renewed hope for democratization in MENA.6 Unfortunately, protests throughout the region were frequently crushed by brutal security forces, and by 2012, most of the uprisings had been put down by their respective authoritarian 1 Wolf 2017, 92 2 Mietzner 2014, 441-447 3 Rosefsky Wickham 2013; Wolf 2017 4 Wolf 2017, 129; “Tunisian President Says Job Riots 'Not Acceptable'” 2010 5 Wolf 2017 6 Rosefsky Wickham 2013 4 regimes. Tunisia and Egypt stood apart from countries like Libya, Syria, and Yemen, as the only ones to initiate democratic transitions.7 Then in July 2013, Egypt’s democratically elected president and parliament were forcibly removed from office during a military coup.8 The Arab Spring was over, and Tunisia stood alone as the only democracy in MENA. For the past nine years, countless scholars have asked why Tunisia survived the transition and whether the results could be replicated in another state. Alfred Stepan and Juan Linz (2013) argue that the divergent outcomes of revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt can partially be accounted for in the behavior of their respective Islamist parties as well as the presence of political society in one country but not the other. According to their earlier work on democratization, Linz and Stepan (1988) argue that a transition requires the “core institutions of a democratic political society—political parties, elections, electoral rules, political leadership, intraparty alliances, and legislatures—through which civil society can constitute itself politically to select and monitor democratic government” if there is any hope of the transition reaching the consolidation phase.9 Minimally functioning political parties are absolutely necessary if a transition is to be carried through to the consolidation period as parties serve the vital function of linking voters to their newly formed government.10 In the MENA region, secular parties are typically weak and dysfunctional while their Islamist counterparts are often exceptionally well-organized and have a high mobilization capacity.11 Islamist parties, by virtue of their stability and popularity, are therefore the most important political actors during democratic transitions in this region, and their behavior can have significant consequences. 7 Stepan and Linz 2013 8 Stepan and Linz 2013 9 Linz and Stepan 1988, 4 10 Pridham 1990 11 Haugbølle and Cavatorta 2011, 340 5 On October 23, 2011 Tunisia held its first democratic elections since gaining independence in 1956. The country’s largest Islamist party Ennahda, returned from a twenty- year exile to win a plurality of the parliamentary seats. Their leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, immediately followed through on his pre-election pledge to not allow one party to rule Tunisia alone.12 Ennahda immediately established a “troika” caretaker government consisting of two other major secular parties, Congress for the Republic (CPR) and Ettakatol, and began the process of drafting the country’s new constitution.13 Stepan and Linz (2013) argue that this ability to forge important political alliances was one of the keys to Tunisia’s successful transition. In addition, Ennahda embraced the concept of a civil state, in which religion has a consultative, but not controlling, role in politics, and committed itself to Tunisia’s progressive Personal Status Code and the equitable treatment