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The Equilibrium Between the Colombian Government and the Guerrilla Groups

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The Equilibrium Between the Colombian Government and the Guerrilla Groups Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1996-12 State strength and guerrilla power : the equilibrium between the Colombian government and the guerrilla groups Reyes, Ruben D. Mestizo Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/32015 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS .. <!.'-')'/ "' j)' .--------------------------------.~~STATE STRENGTH AND GUERRILLA POWER: T~~ c.o EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA~~~ c.o GOVERNMENT AND THE GUERRILLA GR0'9ifs ---..1 c-, by c::T> ..........:> Ruben D. Mestizo Reyes <J..> December 1996 c-, c..n ex:> Principal Advisor: Maria Jose Moyano Associate Advisor: Thomas Bruneau Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Fonn Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of infonnation is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing insbuction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of infonnation. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1996 Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: STATE STRENGTH AND GUERRILLA POWER: THE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS EQUILIBRJUM BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT AND THE GUERRILLA GROUPS 6. AUTHOR(S) Ruben D. Mestizo Reyes 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey, CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This study addresses the question of whether there is an equilibrium between the Colombian government and the guerrilla groups. This subject is addressed for the purpose of gaining an understanding and finding answers to Colombia's violent political conflict. The study argues that there is an equilibrium between the government and the guerrilla groups. The author uses three variables, the military balance, the peasant support for the guerrillas, and the weakness of the state, to discuss the equilibrium and its effect in this conflict. In conclusion, the author maintains that the equilibrium between the actors in the conflict is not structural, but is a circumstance of the effects of both the narco-trafficking and the failure of the judicial system. If this balance is to change, action must be taken on two fronts, narco-trafficking and the judicial system. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Colombia, Colombian Guerrilla Groups, Military Balance, 15. NUMBER OF PAGES137 Peasant Support, Weakness of the State 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICA- 18. SECURITY CLASSIFI- 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICA- 20. LIMITATION OF TION OF REPORT CATION OF THIS PAGE TION OF ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 298-102 '-----~·----~--------- -----~--~- --~ 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. STATE STRENGTH AND GUERRILLA POWER: THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT AND THE GUERRILLA GROUPS Ruben D. Mestizo Reyes Major, Colombian Army B.S., Escuela Militar de Cadetes, 1980 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Author: Approved by: Frank C. Petho, Acting Chairman Department ofNational Security Affairs 111 iv ABSTRACT This study addresses the question of whether there is an equil~brium between the Colombian government and the guerrilla groups. This subject is addressed for the purpose of gaining an understanding and finding answers to Colombia's violent political conflict. The study argues that there is an equilibrium between the government and the guerrilla groups. The author uses three variables, the military balance, the peasant support for the guerrillas, and the weakness of the state, to discuss the equilibrium and its effect in this conflict. In conclusion, the author maintains that the equilibrium between the actors in the conflict is not structural, but is a circumstance of the effects of both the narco-trafficking and the failure of the judicial system. If this balance is to change, action must be taken on two fronts, narco-trafficking and the judicial system. v Vl TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 A. IMPORTANCE AND DESCRIPTION OF THE THESIS ................................... 1 B. LIMITATION OF THIS STUDY .......................................................................... 2 C. THEORETICAL APPROACH .............................................................................. 3 D. A BRIEF HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE GUERRILLA MOVEMENTS IN COLOMBIA ................................................................................ 5 1. FARC ........................................................................................................... 5 2ELN............................................................................................................... 8 3. Guerrilla Development 1978-1995 ............................................................. 9 E. SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 11 II. THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN FORCES .................................................................. 13 A. GUERRILLA MILITARY STRENGTH: ........................................................... 13 1. General Strategy ........................................................................................ 14 2. Political and Military Objectives .............................................................. 17 3. Organization and Strategic Location......................................................... 19 4. Financing a Revolution or Maintaining the Status Quo? ......................... 27 5. How Guerrillas Develop Activities ........................................................... 38 6. The External Aid ....................................................................................... 41 B. THESTATEMILITARYPOWER ..................................................................... 43 1. Informal Pressures ..................................................................................... 45 2. Organization and Distribution of Armed and Security Forces ................. 47 3. Internal Military Resources ....................................................................... 52 Vll 4. Operational Results of the Armed Forces ................................................. 54 5. External Assistance ......................................................... ;......................... 56 C. SUMMARY .............................................................................. :;........................... 57 1. The guerrillas' General Strategy and the Informal Pressures on the Armed Forces ............................................................................................................. 57 2. Organization and Strategic Location of the Guerrilla and the Government Armed Forces ................................................................................................ 58 3. The Financing of the Guerrilla Groups and the Internal and External Resources of the Armed Forces .................................................................... 59 4. Armed Forces' Operations And Guerrilla Activities ................................ 60 5. External Aid to the guerrillas and the International Influence on the Conflict .......................................................................................................... 61 III. PEASANT SUPPORT .................................................................................................... 63 A. OPEN POLITICAL SUPPORT ........................................................................... 64 B. REGIONAL LEGACIES OF THE GUERRILLA MOVEMENTS ................... 68 C. LOCAL INFLUENCE .......................................................................................... 71 D. PEASANT SUPPORT AND SELF-INTEREST ................................................ 75 1. The Narco-guerrilla Concept.. ................................................................... 75 2. Coca-guerrilla Areas .................................................................................. 79 3. Methods ofRecruitJ:nent ............................................................................ 80 E. LEVEL OF PEASANT SUPPORT ...................................................................... 81 F. SUMMARY .........................................................................................................
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