In brief: Pakistan’s multiple crises Standard Note: SN06207 Last updated: 30 January 2012 Author: Jon Lunn Section International Affairs and Defence Section Pakistan is facing multiple crises at present. Relations with the US are at an all-time low as a result of a number of incidents during 2011, including the unilateral US raid that led to the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbotabad in May and the border clash in late November in which US forces killed at least 24 Pakistani soldiers. Relations between the military and the civilian government, led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), are no better. Contempt proceedings against Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, brought by the Supreme Court, are due to resume on 1 February. If he is eventually found guilty, he would in all probability be obliged to resign. Early elections could be triggered, with cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, after years on the political margins, well placed to perform strongly. Trust between the military and the government has collapsed, with both bruised by a series of humiliating failures over the past two years, including the mishandling of the 2010 floods on the part of the civilian government and the assassination of bin Laden under the nose of the military. Their reputations amongst the Pakistani public have both been gravely damaged. In the midst of this has come the ‘memogate’ scandal. In November 2011, an anonymous secret memorandum became public. It was alleged that it was written by the then Pakistani Ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani, to the US government. The memorandum stated that the civilian government feared a military coup in the aftermath of the bin Laden killing. It appealed for American support to prevent such an outcome. Haqqani has been recalled and deprived of his post, despite denying that he was the author of the memorandum. The government has also said that it knows nothing about it. ‘Memogate’ appears to have pushed civil-military relations to breaking-point. The military and political leaders have been engaging for weeks in an angry war of words, although in recent days both sides have attempted to lower the temperature somewhat. However, the situation has been complicated yet further by the fact that the judiciary has also sprung into action after a relatively low-profile period. A Supreme Court investigation has been opened into the veracity of the memorandum and whether government officials had supported it being written. If the judicial inquiry finds that they did, the government would have little choice but to resign. The government has criticised the military for making submissions to the investigation. However, the man that brought the memorandum to public attention, Mansoor Ijaz, is currently refusing to return to the country to give evidence, claiming that his life would be under threat. 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At the same time, the Supreme Court has issued a contempt order against Prime Minister Gilani for failing to reopen corruption cases against President Asif Ali Zardari and other political figures, as required to do so under a 2009 ruling that said that a 2007 amnesty decree issued by former army head of state Pervez Musharraf, was unconstitutional. President Zardari was amongst those covered by the amnesty. Gilani attended an initial hearing on 19 January at which he asserted that the president in any case has immunity while in office. But Zardari, widely known before he took office as ‘Mr 10 per cent’, is also increasingly vulnerable. Zardari has made two recent trips to Dubai, which some believe may partly be about preparing the ground for the next phase of his life - in exile. His son, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, has been playing an increasingly prominent role in public life and would be expected to take the PPP helm if Zardari steps down. Many observers believe that the military is committed, one way or another, to bringing this government’s tenure to a speedy end. But the days of overt coup-making appear over in Pakistan. Army Chief of Staff Asfaq Parvez Kayani has no apparent political ambitions of his own and knows that a coup would be deeply unpopular. Given this, the military may be hoping that the judiciary will be the midwife for a ‘soft’ or ‘judicial coup’. The judiciary has often, in recent years, been accused by political foes of becoming too politicised, but others argue that it is simply – at last – establishing its independence from the executive. It should be remembered that the Supreme Court, under the same Chief Justice as today, Iftikhar Chaudhry, was at loggerheads with former President Musharraf during 2006-08, so its defenders would also claim that it is unfair to view it now as a tool of the military. The next elections for the presidency and National Assembly are due in February 2013, although there are Senate elections this spring. A lot of people believe that preferable to the current confrontation would be agreement amongst all the main stakeholders that there should be early elections. Which parties would fare well in such elections is difficult to predict, but the PPP’s best hope is probably a rise in public sympathy because it is perceived to have been hounded out of office. The PPP’s main rival in the past, Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) might conventionally be expected to perform significantly better than in 2008, but there is a joker in the political pack: Imran Khan’s and his party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice). His rallies have been drawing huge crowds. After years of not being taken particularly seriously, he is now considered by some to be a real contender for power. A Punjabi, Imran Khan could hurt the PML-N in what has traditionally been the heartland of its support. Some observers see the hand of the military behind his meteoric rise. His longstanding criticism of US policy in the region fits increasingly well with the views of the military. This, along with his consistent anti-corruption stance, also appears to be winning him growing public support. He has supported the recent actions of the Supreme Court. There are reports that sitting parliamentarians from other parties, sensing which way the political wind is blowing, are angling to join Khan’s party. Former military ruler Pervez Musharraf, who has been in exile in the UK, may also have been hoping that he would be a contender for power, having announced that we would return to Pakistan on 28-29 January. However, he decided at the last minute not to fly home, following government warnings that he would be arrested as soon as he landed on the basis of warrants issued in connection with the 2007 assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the 2006 killing of a separatist tribal leader in Baluchistan. For more background, see the following Library briefings: In brief: Baluchistan - Pakistan's forgotten conflict (November 2011); The 'AfPak policy' and the Pashtuns (June 2010); Pakistan's political and security challenges (September 2007) 2 .