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SAND98-0505/25 February 2003 Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia Rajesh M. Basrur Mumbai, India Hasan-Askari Rizvi Lahore, Pakistan Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/25 Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories assists political and technical experts from around the world to acquire the technology-based tools they need to assess, design, analyze, and implement nonproliferation, arms control, and other cooperative security measures. As part of its mission, the CMC sponsors research on cooperative security and the role of technology. Reports of that work are provided through the Occasional Papers series. Research is conducted by Sandia staff, international technical experts, and visiting scholars based on unclassified, publicly available information. (The CMC’s Visiting Scholars Program is administered by the Institute for Public Policy at the University of New Mexico.) For additional information on the CMC’s programs, visit the CMC home page on the World Wide Web at <http://www.cmc.sandia.gov> or write to: Cooperative Monitoring Center Sandia National Laboratories Mail Stop 1373 Albuquerque, NM 87185-1373 For specific information on this report contact: Kent Biringer at the above address. This report was prepared by Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM 87185 and Livermore, CA 94550 4 Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia Abstract Nuclear terrorism involves the actual or potential use of nuclear materials to generate fear to achieve political goals. This study focuses on the use of terror by non-state actors – mainly terrorist groups, but conceivably individual malcontents – through their attainment of some level of nuclear capability or threats to existing nuclear infrastructure. This study assesses the character and extent of the threat of nuclear terrorism. It reviews numerous forms of nuclear terrorism, ranging from the detonation of a nuclear weapon to the use of a nuclear bluff to blackmail a government. The potential political, psychological, economic, health, and social effects of a nuclear terrorist incident are described. National and international measures to combat the threat are discussed. The study then focuses on the specific situation in Pakistan and India, examining their respective political conditions, the terrorist threats faced by them, and their vulnerabilities to nuclear terrorism. It concludes with a series of recommendations on how Pakistan and India can tackle these threats individually as well as through bilateral cooperation based on mutual interests. The role of the United States in strengthening this cooperation and that of the global community in providing a framework for multilateral cooperation are also highlighted. 5 Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia Acknowledgements The authors are deeply indebted to Kent Biringer, a constant source of advice and support throughout the duration of the project. Special thanks go to George Baldwin and Amir Mohagheghi for their invaluable criticism and support. We also thank Gaurav Rajen for his very useful suggestions and comments. Fred Luetters was a constant source of warmth and encour- agement. But for the unstinting administrative support of Patricia Dickens, Stephanie Sustaita, Eric Whitmore, and Adam Pool, we would have accomplished little. Diane Ross sorted out our literary efforts with skill and good humor. The strengths of this work reflect the contributions of all; its failings those of the authors alone. 6 Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................15 2. DIMENSIONS OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM ..............................................................17 2.1. TERRORIST GOALS AND THE NUCLEAR THRESHOLD ...................................................18 2.2. HOW SERIOUS IS THE THREAT?...................................................................................24 3. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM..............................................26 3.1. POLITICAL IMPACT ......................................................................................................27 3.2. ECONOMIC IMPACT .....................................................................................................29 3.3. HEALTH IMPACT..........................................................................................................30 3.4. PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT ............................................................................................31 4. NATIONAL MEASURES TO COMBAT THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM ....................................................................................................................32 4.1. DETECTION OF RADIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AND MATERIALS .......................................33 4.2. IMMIGRATION AND BORDER CONTROLS......................................................................33 4.3. CONTROL AND PROTECTION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS..................................................34 4.4. PHYSICAL PROTECTION OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS ......................................................35 4.5. NUCLEAR INSTALLATION SECURITY ...........................................................................36 4.6. PERSONNEL RELIABILITY ............................................................................................37 4.7. MATERIAL CONTROL AND ACCOUNTING.....................................................................38 4.8. TRANSPORTATION .......................................................................................................39 4.9. RADIOACTIVE WASTE .................................................................................................39 4.10. INTELLIGENCE GATHERING .........................................................................................40 5. INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO COMBAT THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM ....................................................................................................................41 5.1. BILATERAL COOPERATION: THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA ...................................41 5.2. MULTILATERAL COOPERATION ...................................................................................43 5.3. OBSTACLES TO COOPERATION ....................................................................................45 6. PAKISTAN AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM ................................................................47 6.1. PERCEPTIONS OF INSECURITY......................................................................................47 6.2. OFFICIAL POSTURES....................................................................................................51 6.3. PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND INFRASTRUCTURE...........................................52 6.4. SECURITY MEASURES AFTER SEPTEMBER 11..............................................................55 6.5. POLITICAL DYNAMICS.................................................................................................56 6.6. HOW CREDIBLE IS THE THREAT? ................................................................................60 7. INDIA AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM .........................................................................63 7 Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia 7.1. THE ENDURING TERRORIST THREAT ...........................................................................63 7.2. NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE AND VULNERABILITIES ..................................................65 7.3. RESPONSES TO THE NUCLEAR TERRORIST THREAT .....................................................70 7.4. WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE.........................................................................................71 8. RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................73 8.1. NATIONAL MEASURES ................................................................................................73 8.2. BILATERAL MEASURES ...............................................................................................74 8.3. ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES .....................................................................................75 8.4. GLOBAL EFFORTS........................................................................................................77 ABOUT THE AUTHORS ...........................................................................................................78 8 Nuclear Terrorism and South Asia Acronyms ABNES Akhil Bharatiya Nepali Ekta Samaj ADM atomic demolition munition AEC Atomic Energy Commission AERB Atomic Energy Regulatory Board BARC Bhabha Atomic Research Centre C3 command, control, and communication CANDU Canadian Deuterium Uranium reactor CIA (US) Central Intelligence Agency CICP (UN) Center for International Crime Prevention CISF Central Industrial Security Force CMC Cooperative Monitoring Center CPPNM Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material CTC Counter-Terrorism Committee CTR Cooperative Threat Reduction DAE Department of Atomic Energy DBT Design Basis Threat DCC Development Control Committee DOE (US) Department of Energy DoD (US) Department of Defense ECC Employment Control Committee EU European Union FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation HEU highly enriched uranium HuM Harkat ul-Mujahedeen IAEA International
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