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Pakistan Project Report April 2013 Pakistan on the Edge Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 2013 Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No.1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt., New Delhi - 110 010 Tel. (91-11) 2671-7983 Fax.(91-11) 2615 4191 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.idsa.in ISBN: 978-93-82512-02-8 First Published: April 2013 Cover shows Data Ganj Baksh, popularly known as Data Durbar, a Sufi shrine in Lahore. It is the tomb of Syed Abul Hassan Bin Usman Bin Ali Al-Hajweri. The shrine was attacked by radical elements in July 2010. The photograph was taken in August 2010. Courtesy: Smruti S Pattanaik. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this Report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute or the Government of India. Published by: Magnum Books Pvt Ltd Registered Office: C-27-B, Gangotri Enclave Alaknanda, New Delhi-110 019 Tel.: +91-11-42143062, +91-9811097054 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.magnumbooks.org All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). Contents Preface 5 Abbreviations 7 Introduction 9 Chapter 1 Political Scenario: The Emerging Trends Amit Julka, Ashok K. Behuria and Sushant Sareen 13 Chapter 2 Provinces: A Strained Federation Sushant Sareen and Ashok K. Behuria 29 Chapter 3 Militant Groups in Pakistan: New Coalition, Old Politics Amit Julka and Shamshad Ahmad Khan 41 Chapter 4 Continuing Religious Radicalism and Ever Widening Sectarian Divide P. K. Upadhayay 51 Chapter 5 The Economy: Crisis Continues Sumita Kumar 59 Chapter 6 Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Sumita Kumar 67 3 Chapter 7 India-Pakistan Relations: Signs of Recovery or False Restart? Ashok K. Behuria 79 Chapter 8 Pakistan Army and Trends in Civil-Military Relations Smruti S. Pattanaik 87 Chapter 9 Counter-insurgency Operations: An Assessment Smruti S. Pattanaik, Sushant Sareen and Ashok K. Behuria 97 Chapter 10 Reflections from the English Language Press Babjee Pothuraju and Medha Bisht 109 Chapter 11 Reflections from the Urdu Press Shamshad Ahmad Khan 121 Conclusion 133 Appendices 139 Appendix I: English Language Press 141 Appendix II: Urdu Dailies 143 Appendix III: Pakistan’s Economic Outlook 145 Appendix IV: Economic Data 149 Index 157 About the Contributors 164 4 Preface The Pakistan Project of IDSA has come up with violence in Karachi and the ongoing insurgency a second report titled Pakistan on the Edge. in Balochistan. The Army remains an important This Report takes into account various political institution in influencing Pakistan’s foreign policy developments in Pakistan focusing more on the and its influence in the politics remains decisive. events of the last two years and analyses its Pakistan’s democratic experience will gradually impact on the nation’s nascent democracy. determine the institutional strength of Parliament. Till democracy attains institutional stability, the The earlier Report of Pakistan project titled Whither Army will play an important role in politics. Pakistan: Growing Instability and Implications for India was well received. This report titled Pakistan Pakistan also faces numerous foreign policy on the Edge is the second report of the Pakistan challenges. Instability in Afghanistan and project of IDSA. This report takes a broad view of an uncertain security situation in post-2014 the politics, emerging political alliances, economy, withdrawal will have several repercussions for foreign policy, India-Pakistan relations and civil- Pakistan and the region. Its relations with the military relations. Two chapters of this report focus United States (US) has come under severe on Pakistan’s English and Urdu language print strain on the issue of drone attacks, intelligence media and how it looks at the critical issues of cooperation and Pakistan’s non-cooperation in domestic and foreign policy. One can note major carrying out operations in North Waziristan where divergence in the reportage of English and Urdu the dreaded Haqqani group is believed to have print media. taken shelter. Pakistan’s economy continues to be dependant on US aid. This has constrained The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is successfully Pakistan in pursuing the policy of strategic depth going to complete its tenure in February 2013. in Afghanistan. It is the first government since the creation of Pakistan which will be completing a full five-year Pakistan will be going to election in the backdrop term. However, the challenges to democracy of a difficult domestic situation characterised by are many. The PPP government survived many allegations of corruption and misgovernance hurdles in keeping its coalition partner together and a faltering economy. The debt servicing cost when confronted with a divergence of opinion comes to around 35 per cent of this year’s budget. and approach. Challenges were thrown in The revenue collection has been low and savings by the memogate episode, the secret raid in remain a problem. Abbottabad to hunt Osama bin Laden, anger over drone attacks and the continuing internal Notwithstanding the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist challenges posed by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan attacks, India-Pakistan relations are making in the FATA region, sectarian tension, political incremental progress. The two countries are 5 negotiating to expand trade after Pakistan in provided by India does not inspire confidence principle approved to confer Most Favoured for bilateral relations. The Pakistan Army is yet Nation (MFN) status on India. The main hurdles to discard its fundamental assumption of India regarding trade relate to several tariff and non-tariff being Pakistan’s number one enemy. Nor has barriers. For trade to expand, India is insisting the Pakistan Army’s support to radical elements that Pakistan should allow more trade via Wagah. ended despite the claims that Pakistan is a India has already agreed to provide 500 MW of victim of terrorism. In the light of these positive electricity to Pakistan. Both countries are working developments, bilateral relations are yet to attain to erect transmission lines to connect their grids. irreversibility. India has also agreed to export petro-products and liquefied natural gas to Pakistan through The report has been prepared by a team of pipelines or tankers. Visa liberalisation to facilitate experts focusing on developments in Pakistan, travel of businessmen and issuance of group who have a keen interest in the subject. This is an tourist visas are some of the recent developments. endeavour towards understanding developments The major problem India confronts in its relations in Pakistan and their implications for India with Pakistan is related to non-cooperation on the and the region. I hope this report is useful for issue of terrorism. Pakistan’s delaying tactics in policymakers, academia and those who have an convicting the 26/11 accused in spite of evidence interest on the subject. Dr. Arvind Gupta Director General, IDSA 6 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank ANP Awami National Party ASWJ Ahle-Sunnat-wal-Jamaat CBM Confidence Building Measures CSF Coalition Support Funds DPC Difa-e-Pakistan Council ETIM East Turkistan Islamic Movement FATA Federally Administered Tribal Area FIF Falaah Insaniat Foundation GHQ General Head Quarters GST General Sales Tax HPC High Peace Council IDP Internally Displaced Persons IMF International Monetary Fund ISI Inter Service Intelligence ISPR Inter Services Public Relations ITPO India Trade Promotion Organisation JAH Jamiat-e-Ahle Hadith JI Jamaat-i-Islami JuD Jamaat-ud-Dawa JUI (F) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rahman) JUI (S) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (Sami-ul-Haq) JuP Jamaat-e-Ulema-e-Pakistan JWG Joint Working Group KLB Kerry Lugar Bill LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi LeT Lashkar-e-Toiba 7 MFN Most Favoured Nation MMA Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal MQM Muttahida Quami Mahaz NACTA National Counter Terrorism Authority NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NICL National Insurance Company Limited NRO National Reconciliation Ordinance OGDCL Oil and Gas Development Company Limited PCNS Parliament Committee on National Security PIPS Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies PML-F Pakistan Muslim League (Functional) PML-N Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML-Q Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam) PNS Pakistan Naval Station PPP Pakistan Peoples Party PTCL Pakistan Telecommunication Company PTI Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFTA South Asia Free Trade Agreement SCBAP Supreme Court Bar Association of Pakistan SIC Sunni Ittehad Council TDAP Trade Development Authority of Pakistan TTIP Tehrik-i-Taliban Islami Pakistan TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan WTO World Trade Organisation 8 Introduction For the first time in the political history of Pakistan, where democracy is slowly taking root. Over the an elected civilian government has completed its last two years, there has been a realignment of the term of five years in office. This has generated hope, domestic political forces; the economic condition that Pakistan’s transition to democracy this time, has worsened; the ethnic crisis in Balochistan has might be sustainable. Though the relations between further intensified, and there has been a spike in sectarian attacks. Violence in Karachi continues Pakistan’s important institutions were erratic – unabated with serious economic and political each competing and trying to encroach on the consequences. The increasing international powers and functions of the other, the government attention on the situation in Balochistan, coupled managed to complete its term. The dates for with Supreme Court’s renewed focus on the elections have already been announced and Mir missing persons’ case, has focussed the spotlight Hazar Khan Khosa, a retired judge has been on the ham-handed and brutal manner in which appointed as the caretaker Prime Minister by the the military and intelligence agencies are handling Election Commission.