VOLUME VI, ISSUE 18 u SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 IN THIS ISSUE: A Who’s Who of the InsurGENCY IN PAKISTAn’s NORTH-WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE: PART One – NORTH AND SOUTH WAZIRISTAN By Rahimullah Yusufzai...............................................................................1 ENERGY SECURITY AND THE PKK THREAT TO THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN PIPE- LINE By Nihat Ali Ozcan and Saban Kardas........................................................4 AQIM’s OFFENSIVE REVEALS SHIFT FROM INSURGENCY TO TERRORIST TaC- TICS IN ALGERIA By Thomas Renard......................................................................................7 REASSESSING THE TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM-CRIMINAL LINK IN SOUTH AMERICA’s TRI-BORDER AREA By Benedetta Berti......................................................................................10 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. A Who’s Who of the Insurgency in Pakistan’s The Terrorism Monitor is designed to be read by policy- North-West Frontier Province: Part One – North makers and other specialists yet be accessible to the general and South Waziristan public. The opinions expressed within are solely those of the By Rahimullah Yusufzai authors and do not necessarily reflect those of The Jamestown Foundation. ilitants operating in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) include both Taliban and non-Taliban forces. However, the Taliban Mmilitants are much larger in number and have a lot more influence in Unauthorized reproduction or the region. The Pakistani Taliban have close links with the Afghan Taliban and redistribution of this or any operate on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also known as the Jamestown publication is strictly prohibited by law. Durand Line after the British diplomat who demarcated the boundary in 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand. The non-Taliban militants, on the other hand, are often pro-government and enjoy cordial ties with the Pakistan authorities and security forces. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) of North and South Waziristan For comments or questions about Most of the Pakistani Taliban militants are grouped in an umbrella organization, our publications, please send an the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The movement was launched on December email to [email protected], or contact us at: 13, 2007, in a secret meeting of senior Taliban commanders hailing from the South 1111 16th St. NW, Suite #320 Waziristan, North Waziristan, Orakzai, Kurram, Khyber, Mohmand, Bajaur Washington, DC • 20036 and Darra Adamkhel tribal regions and the districts of Swat, Buner, Upper Dir, Tel: (202) 483-8888 Lower Dir, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Tank, Peshawar, Dera Ismail Khan, Mardan Fax: (202) 483-8337 and Kohat (The News International [Islamabad], December 15, 2007). Copyright ©2008 TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TERRORISM MONITOR, VISIT http://www.jamestown.org TerrorismMonitor Volume VI u Issue 18 u September 22, 2008 According to TTP deputy leader Maulana Faqir Opposition to Baitullah Mahsud Mohammad and other senior commanders, the militants formed the organization to pool the resources and Hafiz Gul Bahadur is now head of an emerging group manpower of Pakistan’s Taliban to fight in self-defense of Pakistani Taliban commanders opposed to Baitullah if the security forces of Pakistan attacked their areas and Mahsud. The yet-to-be-named group also includes also to extend help to the Afghan Taliban taking part in Maulvi Nazeer, the Taliban commander for Wana area the “jihad,” or holy war, against U.S. and International in South Waziristan, and Haji Namdar Khan, the head Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops in neighboring of the Amr Bil Maruf Wa Nahi Anil Munkar (Promotion Afghanistan (Newsline.com.pk [Karachi], July 2008; of Virtue and Prevention of Vice) group of militants The News International, July 29, 2007). Due to the operating in the Bara area of Khyber Agency. Namdar military operations undertaken by Pakistan’s armed Khan was recently killed in Bara by a young man who forces against them, the Pakistani Taliban now have a was allegedly sent by Baitullah Mahsud’s group to fight at home and are therefore unable to send many eliminate him (The Nation [Islamabad], August 14). This fighters to Afghanistan to fight alongside the Afghan was the second attempt on his life. The earlier attack Taliban. was a suicide bombing targeting him some months ago, but he survived. Several of his men along with seminary The TTP is headed by Baitullah Mahsud, based in South students were killed in the earlier attack which took Waziristan and currently the most powerful Pakistani place inside an Islamic school in Bara. Taliban commander. In his late 30s, Mahsud is referred to as the “Amir Sahib” by his followers. Like many other In the second instance of TTP indiscipline, the TTP failed Pakistanis, he began fighting as a young man during to take action against the Pakistani Taliban commander the Afghan jihad against the Soviet occupation force Omar Khalid (whose real name is Abdul Wali), in in Afghanistan and later joined the Afghan Taliban. Mohmand Agency even though Baitullah Mahsud had Presently, he is stated to be ill, suffering from kidney sent a commission to investigate charges against him. In and heart diseases due to complications arising from fact, TTP spokesman Maulvi Omar had publicly stated diabetes. He reportedly named three of his commanders that Omar Khalid would be punished for attacking a to run the TTP on his behalf, including Waliur Rahman rival group of Islamic fighters that had a training camp in who has been negotiating with the tribal jirgas, or Mohmand Agency. Omar Khalid’s men killed the group’s councils, created by the Pakistan government (The News commander Shah Khalid and his deputy Obaidullah, International, August 24). along with several other fighters and captured more than 70 (Dawn [Karachi], July 20). The detained men, The TTP is not a disciplined organization as two all belonging to the so-called Shah group affiliated with fairly recent events showed. First was the refusal the Salafi Ahle-Hadith sect, were subsequently freed of some components of the TTP to accept Hafiz Gul through the intervention of a jirga of religious scholars, Bahadur, the Pakistani Taliban commander from North including Maulana Sher Ali Shah, an Islamic teacher at Waziristan, as deputy leader of the Baitullah Mahsud-led the Darul Uloom Haqqani seminary in Akora Khattak organization. Later in the winter of 2007-2008, Hafiz near Peshawar. In the end, Baitullah Mahsud and the Gul Bahadur did not cooperate with Baitullah Mahsud TTP just kept quiet and took no action against Omar when the latter was under attack from Pakistan Army. Khalid as this would have created disharmony in the In fact, Bahadur warned Baitullah Mahsud against firing organization and possibly even caused a parting of ways rockets at Pakistani forces camps in Razmak, which is between it and its chapter in Mohmand Agency. located in North Waziristan. His plea was that he and his followers had signed a peace accord with Pakistan South Waziristan government in North Waziristan and therefore no action should be taken against the Pakistani security forces there as it would amount to violation of the agreement While discussing the leading figures of the ongoing (see Terrorism Monitor, February 7). In simple terms, insurgency in the NWFP, it would be worthwhile to start he refused to become involved in the fighting that was in South Waziristan, where the Pakistan Army began then taking place between Baitullah Mahsud’s Taliban its military operations in the Federally Administered and Pakistan Army in neighboring South Waziristan Tribal Areas (FATA) in early 2004 and suffered heavy (Newsline.com.pk, July 2008) casualties in fierce clashes in Kalosha near the regional 2 TerrorismMonitor Volume VI u Issue 18 u September 22, 2008 headquarters at Wana. The Wana region is inhabited by and Shakai. Backed by the Pakistan government and the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe, which has historically been a military with arms and money, they fought the Uzbeks foe of the neighboring Mahsud tribe to which Baitullah and their tribal supporters and finally succeeded in Mahsud belongs. Both Ahmadzai Wazirs and Mahsuds expelling them from Wana. A young Taliban commander, are Pashtun, the ethnic group to which the Afghan Maulvi Nazeer, led this campaign along with his two and Pakistani Taliban belong, but they have long been deputies Malik Abdul Hannan and Maulvi Mohammad traditional rivals in South Waziristan and competed with Iqbal. Hannan was allegedly killed in July 2008 by pro- each other for political and economic power. Baitullah Uzbek tribesmen commanded by Noor Islam, who is the Mahsud was an obscure Taliban commander in 2004 brother of Haji Omar and Haji Sharif (of the Wana 5), when Nek Mohammad from the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe while Maulvi Iqbal died fighting alongside the Afghan in Wana was occupying the media limelight. The 27- Taliban in Afghanistan’s Paktika province in June 2008. year old Pakistani Taliban commander had fought the Apart from Noor Islam, other pro-Uzbek commanders Pakistan Army to a standstill and forced it to conclude a of the Pakistani Taliban from Wana include Haji Omar, peace accord with him largely on his terms. The signing Javed Karmazkhel, Maulana Abdul Aziz and Maulana ceremony was held in one of his strongholds, Shakai, near Mohammad Abbas. They had to take refuge with Wana, where the Pakistan Army’s Corps Commander Baitullah Mahsud in the area populated by the Mahsud for Peshawar, Lieutenant-General Safdar Hussain, tribe in South Waziristan after being evicted along with publicly embraced and garlanded Nek Mohammad the Uzbek militants. In recent months, the pro-Uzbek and hailed him as a partner in peace. Subsequently in tribal fighters of this group have indulged in targeted February 2005 when the government signed a similar killings of men belonging to Maulvi Nazeer’s group peace agreement with Baitullah Mahsud in Sararogha (Newsline.com.pk, July 2008) in South Waziristan, the same army general described Baitullah as a soldier of peace (The News International, As mentioned earlier, Baitullah Mahsud is the most February 10, 2005).