North Waziristan

POLICY OPTIONS FOR POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN

Naveed Yousaf Sandhu

Supervisor

Prof. Dr. Syed Shabib-ul-Hasan

Department of Public Administration University of Karachi Karachi - 2017 POLICY OPTIONS FOR POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN

BY Naveed Yousaf Sandhu

A Dissertation submitted to Department of Public Administration, University of Karachi in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree

Doctor of Philosophy

Department of Public Administration University of Karachi Karachi - 2017

BOARD OF ADVANCED STUDIES & RESEARCH University of Karachi

DECLARATION

I, Mr. Naveed Yousaf Sandhu s/o Mr. Muhammad Yousaf Sandhu hereby declare that the thesis titled ―Policy Options for Post Conflict Rehabilitation in North Waziristan‖ submitted by me for the award of Ph.D degree in the Department of Public Administration is my own work and no part has been plagiarized from anywhere. Proper references are cited wherever necessary and appropriate credit has been given where the work from others has been quoted.

I understand that the University reserves the right to cancel the degree if any of the above declaration is proved false before or even after the award of degree.

Naveed Yousaf Sandhu Candidate for Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) Department of Public Administration University of Karachi, Pakistan 01 November, 2017

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BOARD OF ADVANCED STUDIES & RESEARCH University of Karachi

CERTIFICATE

I have gone through the thesis titled ―Policy Options for Post Conflict Rehabilitation in North Waziristan‖ submitted to the Board of Advanced Studies & Research, university of Karachi by Mr. Naveed Yousaf Sandhu for the award of degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) in Public Administration and certify that to the best of my knowledge it contains no plagiarized material.

Prof. Dr. Syed Shabib-ul-Hasan Research Supervisor Department of Public Administration University of Karachi, Pakistan ………… November, 2017

DEDICATION

―To all those who made supreme sacrifices for peace and humanity‖

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

It is indeed Allah Almighty‘s great blessing (who deserves all praises alone), which enabled me to prove equal to the research task.

The completion of the research is indebted to exclusive excellence of researcher‘s extremely enterprising and inestimably dynamic Research Supervisor Professor Dr. Syed Shabib-ul-Hasan, who matured my approach towards the research project and also kept the research in bounds.

I shall also remain grateful to Dr. Shahzad Hussain, and Dr. Noor-ul-Hadi, National Defence University Islamabad, who extended inexorable academic guidance to keep the efforts on right track for completion of the research objectives. I shall always remain obliged for indefatigable academic and research assistance rendered by Mr. Kashif Zaheer Kamboh, Chairman Youth Association of Pakistan.

To complement the Maslow‘s Hierarchy of need theory, I am thankful to my parent organization for fulfilling my basic needs, my parents for their prayers and my wife for absolute support.

I acknowledge the inspiration of my children Saad and Rafay. The task could have been much more difficult without their continuous pull and push.

I would like to thank my office Superintendent Mr. Rahim Dad Khattak and Assistant Mr. Javed Ahmed for their cooperation in typing and compilation of the research work.

Naveed Yousaf Sandhu

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgement ...... vi

Table of Contents ...... vii

List of Tables ...... xiv

List of Figures ...... xvi

List of Graphs ...... xviii

List of Annexures ...... xix

List of Acronyms ...... xx

Abstract (English) ...... xxi

Abstract (Urdu) ...... xxiii

INTRODUCTION ...... 1

 Statement of the Problem ...... 4

 Significance of Study ...... 5

 Research Questions ...... 6

 Research Objectives ...... 6

 Delimitations of Study ...... 7

 Scheme of Study ...... 7

Chapter 1: NORTH WAZIRISTAN; AN OVERVIEW ...... 10

1.1 Landmass ...... 12

1.2 Water Sources ...... 13

1.2.1 Rivers ...... 13

1.2.2 Seasonal Nullahs ...... 14

1.2.3 Springs ...... 14

1.2.4 Dams and Reservoirs ...... 14

1.3 Agriculture ...... 15

1.4 Livestock ...... 16

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1.5 Forests ...... 17

1.6 Minerals ...... 17

1.7 Communication Infrastructure ...... 19

1.8 Population ...... 19

1.8.1 Population Distribution ...... 21

1.8.2 Utmanzai Wazirs and Mehsuds ...... 22

1.8.3 Dawars ...... 23

1.8.4 Saidgai ...... 24

1.8.5 Gurbaz ...... 24

1.8.6 Kharsin ...... 25

1.9 The Leadership ...... 25

1.9.1 The Maliks ...... 25

1.9.2 Religious Leadership ...... 26

1.10 Politico-Legal System ...... 26

1.10.1 Political System ...... 26

1.10.2 Legal System ...... 27

1.11 Administrative System ...... 30

1.12 Law Enforcement System ...... 31

1.12.1 Political Force ...... 31

1.12.2 Frontier Corps ...... 32

1.12.3 Pakistan Army ...... 32

1.13 Chapter Summary ...... 32

Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 33

2.1 Parental Paradigm ...... 34

2.2 Historical Perspective ...... 34

2.3 Studied Variables ...... 40 2.3.1 Terrorism ...... 40 2.3.2 Civic Services ...... 46 viii

2.3.3 Poor Governance ...... 51 2.3.4 Social Restoration ...... 54 2.3.5 Rehabilitation and Economic Recovery ...... 56 2.4 Research Gap ...... 59 2.8 Chapter Summary ...... 59 Chapter 3: CONCEPTUAL AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...... 60

3.1 The Concepts ...... 61

3.1.1 Tribal Culture ...... 61

3.1.2 Talibanization ...... 64

3.1.3 Conflict ...... 67

3.1.4 Rehabilitation ...... 71

3.2 Theoretical Framework ...... 75

3.2.1 Social Engineering ...... 76

3.2.2 Application of Sociotechnics ...... 78

3.2.3 Systems Thinking Approach ...... 80

3.2.4 Interplay of Social Engineering and Systems Thinking Approach ...... 83

3.3 Hypothesized Relationships ...... 88

3.3.1 Causes of Conflict ...... 88

3.3.2 Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 88

3.4 Chapter Summary ...... 88

Chapter 4: METHODOLOGY ...... 90

4.1 Research Design ...... 91

4.2 Universe of Study ...... 92

4.2.1 Miranshah Sub-Division ...... 92

4.2.2 Mirali Sub-Division ...... 92

4.2.3 Razmak Sub-Division ...... 92

4.3 Research Variables ...... 92

4.4 Sampling Technique ...... 93

4.5 Sample Size ...... 94

4.6 Sample Rationale ...... 95

4.6.1 Maliks and Religious Leaders ...... 95

4.6.2 Displaced Persons ...... 95

4.6.3 Business Community ...... 95

4.6.4 Experts and Students ...... 95

4.6.5 Government Officials ...... 96

4.7 Data Collection ...... 96

4.7.1 Data Sources ...... 96

4.7.2 Collection Tools ...... 96

4.7.3 Collection Process ...... 98

4.7.4 Problems Encountered ...... 99

4.8 Data Analysis ...... 99

4.9 Chapter Summary ...... 100

Chapter 5: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ...... 101

5.1 Demographic Profiling ...... 102

5.1.1 Respondents‘ Age ...... 103

5.1.2 Respondents‘ Gender ...... 103

5.1.3 Respondents‘ Education ...... 104

5.1.4 Respondents‘ Profession ...... 105

5.1.5 Respondents‘ Residence ...... 106

5.2 Data Analysis ...... 107

5.2.1 Normality Test ...... 107

5.2.1.1. Causes of Conflict ...... 107

5.2.1.2. Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 108

5.2.2 Uni-dimensionality Test (Exploratory Factor Analysis) ...... 110

5.2.2.1. Causes of Conflict ...... 111

5.2.2.2. Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 120

5.2.3 Reliability Test ...... 130

5.3 Chapter Summary ...... 131

Chapter 6: INFERENTIAL STATISTICS ...... 133

6.1 Frequency Analysis ...... 134

6.1.1 Causes of Conflict ...... 134

6.1.1.1 Conflict (DV) ...... 135

6.1.1.2 Terrorism (IV) ...... 136

6.1.1.3 Lack of Civic Services (IV) ...... 138

6.1.1.4 Poor Governance (IV) ...... 140

6.1.2 Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 141

6.1.2.1 Rehabilitation Framework (DV) ...... 141

6.1.2.2 Social Restoration (IV) ...... 143

6.1.2.3 Economic Recovery (IV) ...... 145

6.1.2.4 Governance Reforms (IV) ...... 146

6.2 Correlation Analysis ...... 148

6.2.1 Causes of Conflict ...... 148

6.2.1.1 TM – CT Correlation ...... 149

6.2.1.2 PG – CT Correlation ...... 149

6.2.1.3 CS – CT Correlation ...... 150

6.2.2 Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 150

6.2.2.1 SR – RF Correlation ...... 151

6.2.2.2 ER – RF Correlation ...... 151

6.2.2.3 GR – RF Correlation ...... 152

6.3 Hypotheses Testing ...... 152

6.3.1 Causes of Conflict ...... 152

6.3.1.1 Alternative Hypotheses ...... 152

6.3.1.2 Null Hypotheses ...... 152

6.3.1.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion ...... 152

6.3.2 Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 154

6.3.2.1 Alternative Hypotheses ...... 154

6.3.2.2 Null Hypotheses ...... 155

6.3.2.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion ...... 155

6.3.3 Hypotheses Test Summary ...... 157

6.4 Chapter Summary ...... 157

Chapter 7: REHABILITATION FRAMEWORK FOR NORTH WAZIRISTAN .... 159

7.1 Causes of Conflict ...... 161

7.2 Contemporary Rehabilitation Models ...... 164

7.2.1 Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model ...... 166

7.2.1.1 Humanitarian Assistance Phase ...... 167

7.2.1.2 Resettlement Phase ...... 168

7.2.1.3 Early Recovery Phase ...... 168

7.2.1.4 Socioeconomic Development Phase ...... 169

7.2.2 FATA Rehabilitation Model ...... 169

7.2.2.1 Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) ...... 170

7.2.2.2 Rehabilitation Model ...... 170

7.3 Proposed Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 171

7.3.1 Rehabilitation Dimensions ...... 173

7.3.2 Rehabilitation Framework ...... 175

7.3.2.1 Rehabilitation Management ...... 175

7.3.2.2 Rehabilitation Content ...... 176

7.3.2.3 Rehabilitation Principles ...... 177

7.3.2.4 Rehabilitation Framework ...... 178

7.3.2.5 Framework Flow ...... 179

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7.3.2.6 Policy Measures ...... 181

7.4 Chapter Summary ...... 186

Chapter 8: CONCLUSION ...... 187

8.1 Conclusion ...... 188

8.2 Future Research ...... 190

8.3 Possible Limitations ...... 191

REFERENCES ...... 192 ANNEXURES ...... 206

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Land Usage ...... 15

Table 2: Veterinary Facilities ...... 16

Table 3: Mining Activity Year 2014 - 2015 ...... 18

Table 4: Communication Infrastructure ...... 19

Table 5: Population Distribution ...... 21

Table 6: Research Variables ...... 93

Table 7: Sample Distribution ...... 94

Table 8: Cronbach‘s Alpha Standards ...... 98

Table 9: Cronbach‘s Alpha Values ...... 98

Table 10: Respondents‘ Age ...... 103

Table 11: Respondents‘ Gender ...... 103

Table 12: Respondents‘ Education ...... 104

Table 13: Respondents‘ Profession ...... 105

Table 14: Respondents‘ Residence ...... 106

Table 15: Normality Test; Causes of Conflict ...... 107

Table 16: Normality Test; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 109

Table 17: KMO and Bartlett‘s Test; Causes of Conflict ...... 112

Table 18: Factor Extraction; Causes of Conflict ...... 113

Table 19: Parallel Analysis; Causes of Conflict ...... 114

Table 20: Pattern Matrix; Causes of Conflict ...... 115

Table 21: Structure Matrix; Causes of Conflict ...... 116

Table 22: Factor Labeling; Causes of Conflict ...... 118

Table 23: KMO and Bartlett‘s Test; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 121

Table 24: Factor Extraction; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 122

Table 25: Parallel Analysis; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 123

Table 26: Pattern Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 124

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Table 27: Structure Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 126

Table 28: Factor Labelling; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 127

Table 29: Cronbach‘s Alpha Coefficient ...... 130

Table 30: Frequency Analysis; Conflict ...... 135

Table 31: Frequency Analysis; Terrorism ...... 137

Table 32: Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services ...... 138

Table 33: Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance ...... 140

Table 34: Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework ...... 142

Table 35: Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration ...... 143

Table 36: Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery ...... 145

Table 37: Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms ...... 146

Table 38: Pearson‘s Correlation; Causes of Conflict ...... 148

Table 39: Pearson‘s Correlation; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 150

Table 40: Regression Model Summary; Causes of Conflict ...... 153

Table 41: ANOVA Model; Causes of Conflict ...... 153

Table 42: Regression Coefficients; Causes of Conflict ...... 153

Table 43: Regression Model Summary; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 155

Table 44: ANOVA Model; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 155

Table 45: Regression Coefficients; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 156

Table 46: Hypotheses Summary ...... 157

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Karlani Genealogy ...... 20

Figure 2: Legal Provisions ...... 28

Figure 3: Layout of Legal Setup ...... 28

Figure 4: Judicial Procedures Civil Cases ...... 29

Figure 5: Judicial Procedures Criminal Cases ...... 29

Figure 6: Layout of Administrative Setup ...... 30

Figure 7: Law Enforcement Agencies ...... 31

Figure 8: Research Model; Causes of conflict ...... 87

Figure 9: Research Model; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 87

Figure 10: Model; Causes of conflict ...... 162

Figure 11: Conflict Cycle ...... 163

Figure 12: Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model ...... 167

Figure 13: Strategic Pillars FATA Reconstruction Model ...... 170

Figure 14: FATA Secretariat Rehabilitation Model ...... 171

Figure 15: Rehabilitation Framework; Popular Dimensions ...... 173

Figure 16: Proposed Rehabilitation Framework ...... 179

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LIST OF GRAPHS

Graph 1: Extracted Factors; Causes of Conflict ...... 114

Graph 2: Extracted Factors; Rehabilitation Strategy ...... 123

Graph 3: Frequency Analysis; Conflict ...... 136

Graph 4: Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services ...... 138

Graph 5: Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance ...... 139

Graph 6: Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework ...... 141

Graph 7; Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration ...... 143

Graph 8: Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery ...... 144

Graph 9: Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms ...... 146

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LIST OF ANNEXURES

Annexure A: Agency Geographic Layout ...... 206

Annexure B: Minerals Map ...... 207

Annexure C: Important Population Centers ...... 208

Annexure D: Population Distribution ...... 209

Annexure E: Connectivity Infrastructure ...... 210

Annexure F: Genealogy of Utmanzai Wazirs ...... 212

Annexure G: Genealogy of Dawars ...... 213

Annexure H: Eminent Leaders ...... 214

Annexure I: Religious Personalities ...... 221

Annexure J: Government Agreement ...... 223

Annexure K: Constitutional Status of FATA ...... 225

Annexure L: Agency Administration ...... 227

Annexure M: Questionnaire- Policy Options for Post Conflict Rehabilitation in NWA . 228

Annexure N: Important Madrassas ...... 237

Annexure O: Educational Facilities ...... 241

Annexure P: Healthcare Facilities ...... 245

Annexure Q: FATA Secretariat Notification ...... 248

Annexure R: Citizen Loss Compensation Program (Flow Chart) ...... 249

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LIST OF ACRONYMS

FATA Federally Administrated Tribal Areas

NWA North Waziristan Agency

FATA SDP FATA Sustainable Development Plan

NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations

PCNA Post Crises Needs Assessment

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

PA Political Agent

APA Assistant Political Agent

PNTs Political Naib Tehsildars

FCR Frontier Crimes Regulations

F.R Frontier Region

LEAs Law Enforcement Agencies

KP Khyber Pakhtunkhawa

S.R.O Statutory Notification

MNA Member National Assembly

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

FDA FATA Development Authority

OGDC Oil and Gas Development Authority

NOC No Objection Certificate

BMG Bannu- Miranshah- Ghulam Khan

IMU Islamic movement of Uzbekistan

ETIM East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement

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ADP Annual Development Program

SMART Specific, Measureable, Achievable, Realistic and Timely

UNICEF United Nations Children‘s Education Fund

UNDP United Nations Development Program

USAID United States Agency for International Development

BHU Basic Health Unit

RHC Rural Health Center

FWO Frontier Works Organization

COIN Counter Insurgency

RRU Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit

RTF Return Task Force

FSRRS FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy

NFRI Non Food Relief Items

FRC FATA Reforms Committee

TDPs Temporary Displaced Persons

IDP Internally Displaced Persons

DM District Magistrate

SDM Sub-Divisional Magistrate

ABSTRACT

North Waziristan had historically been acting as a catalyst for geostrategic changes occurred in Afghanistan especially during the ‗Great Games‘. Following the period of relative calmness after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan; the fateful incident of 11th September 2001 again pushed the agency into regional geostrategic wrangling. United States led military campaign in Afghanistan during 2002, triggered an unending chain of actions leading to a fresh cultural war and process of social disintegration in the area. The terrorists‘ infiltration in hideouts across North Waziristan; established during Afghan jihad (1979-1991), further complicated the sociopolitical matrix of the agency. The succeeding years witnessed an unprecedented wave of terrorism which destroyed the sociopolitical institutions and physical infrastructures in the area. The decade long miseries of locals ended when triumphant military operation ‗Zarb-e-Azb‘ obliterated the terrorists‘ hideouts from North Waziristan and set the stage for non-kinetic initiatives to revive and restore socioeconomic and politico-administrative institutions in the agency.

Undertaking the research project in North Waziristan has never been a soft seafaring. Extremely conservative cultural values and inadequate accessibility make the task of amassing requisite data, contacting authentic stakeholders and recording of actual feelings exceedingly difficult. The research has been carried out while considering the said sociocultural ground realities and data collection limitations. The researcher‘s field experience of government service, operating knowledge and personal observations of the local environments have provided the needed expertise to accomplish this difficult task. The research used non-probability sampling design to collect relevant information needed to explore the causes of conflict and to suggest post conflict rehabilitation strategy. For this purpose, 503 respondents from various segments of Waziristan community living inside or outside the agency were approached by using close ended questionnaire through survey method. Using multiple regression analysis, the study found that there is a positive and significant relationship between the hypothesized relationships. This empirically evidence based on the conflict and rehabilitation theories verify the applicability of social engineering theory and system‘s thinking approach in the North Waziristan region.

To sum-up the study concluded that rehabilitation framework based on perceptive planning and dynamic execution mechanism can optimally assist to revolutionize the socioeconomic fortune of the conflict ridden North Waziristan for a better and peaceful

xxi region with focus on human development. The research has also offered certain important policy recommendations for social, economic, political and institutional restoration in the post conflict environments of the North Waziristan.

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INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

The distinctive geographic locality and linkage to the historical developments of the Great Game and the Cold War eons affix immense geostrategic significance to turbulent North Waziristan. Being important part of nucleus region between Oxus and Jumna, the area has always been an epicenter of decisive events in the history of mankind‖ (Toynbee, 1961). The agency because of its strategic significance is regarded as ―the most sensitive area in Pakistan and indeed in South Asia‖ (Ahmad, 1997). The Waziristan area has been described by the historians as the ―land of high and difficult hills, deep and rugged defiles, brave and hardy people, in their way as independent and patriotic, and in the presence of the common enemy, hardly less united than the famous compatriots of Tell‖ (Oliver, 1800).

The agency and its adjoining tribal areas with rich socio-cultural heritage and undeniable strategic significance, characterized by Toynbee (1961) as the ‗cross-road of civilizations‘ have largely been ignored by successive governments while executing socioeconomic development programs. The British Indian government after introducing an indirect political administrative system through Political Agents; transformed these ill- fated areas into a buffer between the Czarist Russia and India (General Staff Transcripts, 1908). Subject area remained part of geostrategic settings of ―The Great Games,‖ first between the Great Britain and the former Soviet Union during the 18th and 19th centuries, and subsequently during the Cold War era during 20th century. Later during the 20th century, the inhabitants of this area remained actively involved in ―Jihad‖ against former Soviet Union and the agency earned reputation of marshaling area to fight occupation. During Afghan Jihad, the United States ensured all types of uninterrupted assistance including supply of arms and ammunition to the Mujahedeen with North Waziristan as an important training camp.

The culture of militancy however did not cease to exist even after Soviet withdrawal following decade long unsuccessful war. The post war environments in the agency witnessed four types of well trained and fully armed splinter groups to include Muhajireen (refugees), Mujahedeen (freedom fighters), foreigners (Arabs, Tajiks and Uzbeks, etc.) and local religious supporters of Mujahedeen (Marwat, 2005). It is important to mention that majority of the foreign fighters were ‗believed to be‘ Islamic radicals with the stated ideology of doing the same to United States; what it had done to the Soviets, for

2 her support to Israel against the Palestinians (H. Rehman, personal communication, March 17, 2017). The agency during subsequent years; slowly but gradually, earned another sole distinction of a ‗safe haven‘ (Johnson and Mason, 2008) for foreign fighters of different colour and creed. These foreigners were either not welcomed by their native countries or had decided to stay after participating in the Afghan Jihad. Resultantly an assortment of Afghans, Arabs and Central Asians along with host of other nationals was developed; who over the years sustained themselves with the help of local population. These groups over the years either earned or won the local support and thereafter exploited the youth and economic weakness of the agency; turning it into an area most infected by numerous terrorist groups operating across the globe (Burki, 2010). The situation got worsened after the awful event of 9/11, when influence of Taliban and host of other terrorist groups grew rapidly and the North Waziristan put a question mark on peace and stability of the Pakistan (Yousaf, Khan, & Hussain, 2018).

The situation got further complicated after United States led ―Operation Enduring Freedom‖ when deposed Talibans and their foreign supporters retreated into the Pak- Afghan bordering areas thus making the agency vulnerable to the infiltrating militant elements (Salman, 2012). The extremely porous international border ―Durand Line‖, running along the mountain peaks, shaped the international milieu where the agency was termed as safe haven of terrorists. The terrorists not only pursued the local population for providing them the ―local youth‖ to work for terrorist groups but also demanded cash for their sustenance (Burki, 2010). The historically precarious state machinery failed to meet the challenge and lost the control of the situation and virtually the state institutions except military and frontier corps ceased to function. Consequently, the vital social institution of tribal Jirga was destroyed and pro-government Maliks were killed (N. Wazir, personal communication, October 25, 2016). The situation remained so until military operation ―Zarb-e-Azb‖ successfully flushed the terrorists out of their hide-outs.

The culture of militancy along with different factors has been largely responsible for destruction of the sociocultural values of local society, reversing the wheel of development and infringement of the sense of security. The highly porous and un- defendable border; prone to foreign infiltration acceded to those who disturbed the law and order situation and destroyed the socioeconomic conditions of the agency thus breeding the phenomenon of militancy (Yousaf, et al., 2018). Subsequent to the environments of militancy outburst, the state of Pakistan opted for military operation ―Zarb-e-Azb‖ to re-

3 establish the writ of the state and to restore social order. The local population browbeaten by the bloodshed being committed by terrorists; willingly became TDPs (Temporarily Displaced Persons) to facilitate the conduct of military operation. The conflict however caused enormous loss to the local population (TDPs) as the cultivated lands became desolate, businesses destroyed and their assets put at risk. However, successful military operation dismantled the terrorist‘s networks by killing or forcing them to flee from their decades old hideouts. In post terrorism driven conflict settings the state is obliged to embark upon a whole encompassing rehabilitation and reconstruction strategy. The strategy should provide an execution framework in line with the local tribal aspirations. The rehabilitation framework should not only focus on re-settlement of TDPs but also provide mechanism for social re-integration of those previously involved in terrorism. The framework must also suggest measures for early as well as long-term economic recovery for human development. Statement of the Problem

The successive governments except using the area for foreign policy objectives ignored the socioeconomic wellbeing and political development of the North Waziristan Agency (Yousaf, et al., 2018). The exploitation and neglect consequently resulted into the culture of militancy; a reflection of socio-economic deprivation, invalid politico- administrative structures and Frontier Crimes Regulations (Haider, 2009). Paucity of financial resources coupled with deep-rooted problems; affixed with the geographical and physical barriers, wobbly law and order situation and tribal cultural restrictions, left the agency inhabitants poorly educated and deprived of essential social amenities including drinking water, adequate healthcare and sanitation (Burki, 2010). The absence of basic amenities of life induced the sense of deprivation among local population. The phenomenon as theorized in ―Breaking the Conflict Trap‖ (Elliot, Herger, Hoeffler, Queorel, and Sambanis, 2003) created the leaders and organizations investing in skills and equipment only useful for violence. The resultant organizations transformed the fragile agency atmosphere into the conflict that worsened the socioeconomic conditions of the area. These terrorist groups continued to function with the state like freedom until the state intervened by launching military operation ―Al - Mizan‖ (Salman. 2012). Although military operation has successfully eliminated the terrorist‘s sanctuaries exited mostly around Mirali, Miranshah, Boya and in Shawal valley but the military success alone

4 cannot address the deep-rooted socioeconomic and political problems of the agency. In the post ―Zarb-e-Azb‖ environments the dilemma of re-settlement of TDPs and socioeconomic rehabilitation; when whole of the tribal social system is in disarray, has presented yet another challenge.

The absence of a comprehensive rehabilitation policy framework may allow the sleeping sympathizers of terrorism to exploit the traditional tribal apprehensions about socioeconomic developments thus consuming huge budgetary allocations without leaving any positive imprints on the socioeconomic matrix of the turbulent agency (Afshar et al., 2008; Aziz., 2008; Alam., 2012; Ahsan., 2013). It is therefore imperative to explore and examine different dimensions of rehabilitation activities in the post conflict environments. For the same reason, this research has been carried out to explore different policy options for post conflict rehabilitation initiatives in the North Waziristan while investigating the key causes of conflict (role of terrorism, lack of civic services, poor governance) and policy options for post conflict rehabilitation strategy (to include social restoration, economic recovery and governance reforms). Based on above discussion, comprehensive literature review and logical understanding, a detailed framework for post conflict rehabilitation with elaborate execution mechanism has been outlined on the principle of participatory development with locals‘ ownership. The rehabilitation framework will also optimize the socioeconomic utilization of inflow of development funds; coming from number of national and international developing partners, for development of human capital. Significance of Study

The research will suggest certain policy options for post conflict rehabilitation in North Waziristan while introducing the academic world otherwise an inaccessible, rugged and mountainous terrain of the agency including its landmass, population, and political system. The research is significant in establishing the linkage between state of terrorism driven conflict and historical events of the recent past. The research based on locals‘ feedback will forecast important policy options for a comprehensive rehabilitation strategy in the post conflict environments of the area. The study through information acquired from field research will also proffer an effective execution framework in accordance with the

5 wishes of the local population, traditions and culture that are exceedingly essential for socioeconomic growth and political restructuring.

The research findings will provide policy guidelines to the government for instituting post conflict rehabilitation measures in the subject area in particular and FATA in general (Sandhu, 2014). Academically, the study will also offer a platform for future researchers of social sciences to explore and suggest rehabilitation strategies in post conflict settings that are traditionalist and highly conservative in nature. Research Questions

The research has investigated following research questions to suggest policy options for post conflict rehabilitation while seeking confirmation of the conclusions; regarding emergence of conflict, drawn from literature review:

 Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the terrorism?

 Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the lack of civic services?

 Is there any significant relationship between conflict and poor governance?

 Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social restoration?

 Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and economic recovery?

 Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and governance reforms? Research Objectives

Research Purpose

The major objective of the research is to proffer viable policy options for socioeconomic and politico-administrative rehabilitation of the North Waziristan agency in the post conflict setting. The research also aims at identifying the rehabilitation scenarios based on the local environment. While outlining the policy options for social, economic and political developments, the research will explore the under mentioned important objectives.

Research Objectives

 To investigate the significant relationship between conflict and terrorism.

 To investigate the significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic services.

 To investigate the significant relationship between conflict and poor governance.

 To investigate the significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social restoration.

 To investigate the significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and economic recovery.

 To investigate the significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and governance reforms. Delimitations of Study

Delimitations mean the limitations deliberately imposed on design followed during the course of the research whereas the limitations refer to restrictions beyond the control of researcher (Rudestam and Newton, 2015). During the course of research delimitation was made by studying only one case of post conflict area namely the North Waziristan. This delimitation was intentionally imposed as the research task was beyond the capacity of one researcher in terms of time, scope, quantity of data and above all peculiar security situation. However during the process certain parallels were drawn with reconstruction programs adopted by Sri Lankan government to draw generalized policy guidelines. Scheme of Study

The study in hand includes Introduction and eight other chapters. The introductory part ―chapter 0‖ gives the statement of the research problem as well as the significance of the research. The research objectives defined in this chapter served as the foundation for subsequent research.

The chapter 1 ―North Waziristan; An Overview‖ describes important geographic features of the agency. The chapter briefly elaborates the hydro, agrarian, livestock and forest potentials along with an account of unexplored mineral‘s potential of the agency. The demographic structures including population distribution of the Waziristan tribes have

7 been discussed in this chapter. This chapter also gives a detailed account of eminent political and religious leadership of the local tribes. The chapter also offers a brief account of the agency political and administrative setup for better understanding of complexities existed in the research area.

Chapter 2 covers a detailed account of available literature relating to the research problem. This chapter in the backdrop of historical as well as cultural pretext provides an insight of decades old terrorism driven conflict in the area. The literature covering emergence of Talibans and the impact of recently witnessed wave of terrorism on socioeconomic and cultural aspects of the area have been explored. This chapter also reviews the available literature on governance aspects as well as reconstruction of conflict- ridden societies. In the end, this chapter gives hypothesized relationships for investigating the causes of conflict and rehabilitation framework in post conflict environments in the subject area.

Chapter 3 of the study gives major contours of the conceptual and theoretical frameworks of the research to investigate the research problem. This chapter explains the Social Engineering theory including its different levels of application. The chapter also explains the Systems Thinking approach before discussing the interplay of both the theories; social engineering and systems thinking approach in the context of terrorism driven state of conflict before identifying the popular dimensions of the corrective mechanism; rehabilitation strategy. However, before theoretical certain important socioeconomic concepts including Pashtun culture, Terrorism, Conflict and Rehabilitation have been described in the context of the study.

Chapter 4 of the dissertation gives a detailed account of research methodology adopted during the course of research. The chapter having identified the research questions studies the important methodological aspects to include universe of research as well as sampling size and rational. Moreover, this chapter discusses different techniques applied and problems encountered during the data collection and data analysis. In-addition, the limitations and de-limitations of the research have also been covered under this chapter of methodology.

Chapter 5 pertains to the empirical analysis of the data collected through questionnaires and feedback from different government agencies operating in the area under study. This chapter gives the results based on statistical analysis to ascertain

8 authenticity of the collected data. The chapter subsequently also explains how the validated data has been subjected to exploratory factor analysis to identify the relevant dimensions for further analysis.

Chapter 6 discusses the measured frequencies of identified factors covering both of the research dimensions to include causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy. The chapter also gives details of the correlation analysis; Pearson‘s correlation to confirm mutual relationship of both the research dimensions. This chapter subsequently also examines the identified research hypotheses to draw relevant research conclusions by hypothesis testing.

Chapter 7 explains popular perception about the causes of conflict generation as well as the conflict cycle. Next section of this chapter describes contemporary rehabilitation models to include Sri Lankan rehabilitation model and the FATA secretariat FATA Sustainable Return and Reconstruction Strategy to ascertain the importance of various rehabilitation aspects. The chapter also elaborates the measured popular dimensions of rehabilitation content before suggesting a rehabilitation framework for post conflict environments. Later part of the chapter offers certain important policy options to undertake the rehabilitation work in the conflict ridden North Waziristan agency.

Chapter 8; the last chapter of the research concludes the study while giving review of the research project. Before concluding the research, this chapter also suggests possible research dimensions including possible limitations that may confront the future researchers of the social sciences.

CHAPTER 1

NORTH WAZIRISTAN; AN OVERVIEW

The Waziristan for its peculiar geography; the Frontier‘s Switzerland (Oliver, 1800) bears immense strategic importance for any geopolitical transformation occurring in the Afghanistan. The Wazir and Mehsud tribes from North Waziristan; bordering the Afghan provinces of Khost, Paktika and Paktia, have been playing central role during the past dynastic struggles in Afghanistan. Nadir Khan for instance returned from France with the implicit support of British to seize the throne from then Afghan King Amanullah. Nadir Khan‘s struggle of seizure succeeded only due to the help of warring group raised from Waziristan battle hardy tribes. Adolf Hitler during the year 1938, planned to foment disturbance in the Waziristan through his links with Amin Hussaini, an ex-Mufti of Jerusalem. The Mufti assigned the task of infesting rebellion in Waziristan and restoration of King Amanullah to his Syrian relative famous as the ―Shami Pir‖ or Syrian Pir in Waziristan (Aziz K. , 2007) .

North Waziristan Agency formally was established as a separate administrative unit with Headquarter at Miranshah in 1910. The agency with an estimated area of 2310 square miles; located at 32.45 - 33.15 degrees north and 69.30 -70.40 degrees east. The Kohat and Bannu districts lay on the north and eastern boundary of the agency while Shaktu stream runs in the south entering Bannu district with its head at Shauidar. The boundary from Shauidar follows the eastern watershed of the Shawal valley to Dar-e- Nashtar Sar before turning north-east along the Durand Line to the land of Kabul and Buland khels (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908). The geographical alignment of the agency boundaries is placed at annexure A.

The agency consists of four fertile and hefty valleys including the Lower Kurram valley in the north; between Kurram agency on upper reaches of river Kurram and Bannu district; the Kaitu valley, the most fertile Tochi valley and the Khaisora valley in south. Two barren plains; Shertalla and Danday plains with each covering an area of about 30 square miles lay between the Kaitu and Tochi valleys. The Spairaga plateau; similar but smaller than Shertalla, stretches between the valleys namely Kurram and Kaitu. The barren hills with Shauidar as the loftiest peak at the western part of the Khaisora separate the four valleys. These hills are generally composed of Eocene sandstone conglomerate having surface covered with the crumbling soil that fertilizes the valleys through flood silting (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908).

The weather conditions are hot in summers and cold during winters. The winter spans from October to April with mercury falling below freezing point at places with high altitude. December, January and February are generally the coldest with mean temperature oscillating between maximum 10 and minimum minus 2 degree centigrade (Geography and Habitat, 2015). Moreover, the summer arriving in May and lasts till September with June as the warmest when mercury rises slightly over 40 degree centigrade. 1.1 Landmass

The agency landmass is mostly rugged sprinkled with steep hills with varying heights upto 3390 meters. In the agency, there extends an open valley from Mirali to Spinwam with patches of agrarian terraces. Miranshah; the agency capital is located in the famous Tochi valley. Five rivers that flow in the area from west to east include Tochi, Kaitu, Kurram, Khaisora and Shaktu rivers. In addition to five rivers, several seasonal nullahs and streams are also present to flood the area during rainy seasons. Few of the key seasonal nullahs include Charkhai Nullah, Dwa Manda Algad and Kazha Algad. On either side of these rivers and seasonal nullahs there are valleys that are dry in northern half but green towards the southern parts of the agency (Geography and Habitat, 2015). Communication means along the existing roads are generally developed but no infrastructure is available elsewhere. Apart from the main roads only few branch roads can be termed as blacktop whereas shingle tracks mostly lead to the remote khels or villages.

The agency is generally devoid of the vegetation except in areas south of the line Gurbaz - Razmak - Gharyum where there are fairly well grown trees including Cedar and sprinkled clumps of Apple and Apricot. However in remaining parts of the agency, the vegetation is largely restricted to widely spread low shrubs and seasonal grass; that grow from March to August, and the scattered trees around population centers and river banks. Step farming technique is generally applied for cultivation of maize and wheat crops however few of the crops and orchards are also cultivated in the Tochi river bed and along Boya- Miranshah road. In-addition few date palm trees in Khajuri and limited scale vegetation in the areas around Datta Khel also exist.

The extreme temperatures, wind and dryness characterize the agency climate. During spring and autumn, it generally remains pleasant. The temperature in Tochi valley; around Miranshah shoots up to 40 to 42 degree centigrade during summers while during winters it stays as low as 8 to 10 degree centigrade (Geography and Habitat, 2015).

However, the winters in Shawal and Khaisora valleys witness the temperature drop as low as minus 20 and 16 degree centigrade respectively during January. Wind speeds are much higher in the area when compared with rest of the FATA thus reflecting potential for wind energy. The mid July brings extensive monsoon rains till the end of September, however from December to March occasional showers are witnessed. The average recorded annual rainfall is generally between 200 to 225 millimeters (Geography and Habitat, 2015). Although there are no conventional floods in the area, yet the phenomenon of flash floods is common in low-lying areas along the rivers. 1.2 Water Sources

The area is blessed with plenty of water potential including rivers, seasonal nullahs and springs. The available water sources not only meet the drinking requirements but also supply water for agricultural needs. The agency in addition to rivers and seasonal nullahs has few water retaining structures and dams with huge potential for agricultural development and the energy generation. Major water resources currently contributing to the socioeconomic needs of locals are discussed in succeeding paragraphs.

1.2.1 Rivers

Five major rivers flow through various areas of the North Waziristan with three entering from Afghan province of Khost. These rivers are narrow at the point of entrance but spread out afterward. The river beds in plains are sandy but contain small rocks and boulders in mountains (Geography and Habitat, 2013). Small water channels with varying width flow in theses river beds and irrigate five valleys including two major; Tochi and Shawal, and three relatively smaller ones (Iqbal, 2016). The available water potential apart from meeting the drinking requirements also provides requisite economic resource for daily sustenance. Different rivers flowing through the agency include following (Geography and Habitat, 2015):

 Tochi River : 100 to200 meters wide with length of about 128 kilometers

 Kurram River : 200 to 300 meters wide and about 28 kilometers long

 Kaitu River : 130 to 300 meters wide and about 48 kilometers long

 Shaktu River : 150 to 350 meters wide and have sandy bed

 Khaisora Rive : 50 to 150 meters wide with 5 to 10 feet high banks

1.2.2 Seasonal Nullahs

There are numerous seasonal nullahs which apart from charging the rivers, irrigate the adjacent agricultural lands. Although seasonal nullahs generally remain dry however during monsoon season theses nullahs cause flash floods. The nullah beds; like rivers, are frequently used as smuggling routes as their sandy nature allows fair degree of movement during dry seasons (H. Rehman, personal communication, March 17, 2017).

1.2.3 Springs

The agency also houses number of natural springs that in the absence of developed water schemes provide drinking water. However due to lack of water distribution system, these springs hardly meet the drinking requirements of local population. These water sources can certainly contribute towards the quality of life if water distribution system is developed systematically.

1.2.4 Dams and Reservoirs

North Waziristan possesses enormous water potential that merits requisite exploration by developing different hydro management projects. These projects while serving the local water requirements can play an important role in power generation to meet the energy demand. The Danday Small Dam with 101 feet height and 4820 acre-feet water storage capacity has already been completed in 2011 with the cost of about Rupees 553.680 million (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016). Also at about 20 kilometers from Mirali, Kund Small Dam with the catchments area of 10.20 square miles and height of about 78 feet has been planned with an estimated cost of Rupees 178.942 million. This earth core rock filled small dam is furcated to have the gross water capacity of about 3375 acre-feet (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016).

Foundation stone of yet another smal dam project named Kurram-Tangi small dam; with an estimated budget of Rupees 59.561 billion, has already been laid (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016). The small dam project under construction on river Kurram will irrigate a command area of 84,380 acres with power generation capacity of 83.4 Mega Watt. The Kurram-Tangi small dam will also complement 278,000 acres of the existing system of Civil and Marwat Canals. Five canal systems; including Thal Canal, Shertalla Canal, Spairaga Canal, Civil Canal and Marwat Canal, have been planned from this dam (J. Iqbal, personal communication, November 18, 2016). In-

14 addition to above discussed water projects, feasibility studies of Sarrobi small dam and Walmai small dam have also been concluded. The planned water storage projects on completion may yield following benefits.

 Provide irrigation water in the Shertalla, Spairaga and Thal plains.

 Improvement of crops in the command areas of Civil and Marwat Canals.

 Purposeful and efficient management of water flowing in Kurram and Kaitu rivers.

 Generating the hydel energy to meet the growing local demands.

 Improve socioeconomic conditions of locals in adjoining areas.

 Creation of job opportunities for local population. 1.3 Agriculture

Agricultural output of the area has always been extremely low due to meager land holdings coupled with poor land management. The agency agriculture department official remarked that presently only half of the arable land is being used for agriculture and prospects of retrieving the wasteland has yet not been studied (M. Anwar, personal communication, December 19, 2017). Although the fertility of soil and cultivation friendly climate is suitable for growing of cereals, different fruits and vegetables but productivity index has traditionally been very low.

Population in the south mostly depends on forestry, domestic animals and few orchard crops and the arable land lay mainly astride rivers and perennial nullahs (Geography and Habitat, 2015). There is no marketing facility for agricultural products mainly due to absence of communication infrastructure. The most common agricultural crops include potato, apples and apricot, wheat and maize, vegetables, dates and dry fruits (M. Anwar, personal communication, December 19, 2016). Important agricultural indicators are given in table 1 below.

Table 1: Land Usage Agricultural Indicators Year 2014-15

Reported Area (Hectares) 480.2

Cultivable Area (Hectares) 21.3

Cultivated Area (Hectares) 19.7

Cultivable Waste (Hectares) 1.6

Irrigated Area (Hectares) 15.4

Forest Area (Hectares) 0.401

Source: Geography and Habitat- NWA, 2015 1.4 Livestock

Local population sustains domestic economy through livestock rearing despite insufficient veterinary facilities, mediocre genetic potential and inadequate marketing facilities. The significance of livestock in the local economy has been highlighted in FATA Sustainable Development Plan that describes the animals as a ‗source of milk and meat‘. It writes that apart from supplying milk, the animals are source of dung that serves as fuel and fertilizer. The document also describes that animal hides, skins, wool and other numerous products provide raw materials for livestock based industry (Secretariate, 2007).

Livestock rearing like other pastoral societies is a common practice among tribal inhabitants of the agency. The agency land despite being barren provides enough fodder in mountains and areas irrigated by natural water sources especially along banks of the Tochi River. The livestock industry of the agency mostly involves rearing of cows, buffalos, horses, donkeys, mules and goats. Apart from large animals, poultry keeping also complements the diet along with financial sustenance for large segment of tribal society (A. Rehman, personal communication, November 16, 2016). Veterinary facilities; mostly dysfunctional, are given below in table 2.

Table 2: Veterinary Facilities Serial Livestock Indicators Year 2014-15

1. Veterinary Hospitals 1

2. Veterinary Dispensaries 5

3. Animal Insemination Facilities 3

Source: Geography and Habitat NWA, 2015

1.5 Forests

The forests apart from contributing to a healthy atmosphere and controlling of flash floods; provide much needed fuel and fodder. These also contribute to the local rural economy through creation of jobs, felling operations, sawmills, charcoal kilns, transportation and furniture industry. Although no reliable data is available regarding forest cover in the area however according to agency administration estimates the forests cover an approximate area of 0.402 Hectares; only 0.1 percent of the agency land (I. Ullah, personal communication, December 19, 2016). The estimated statistics are certainly not true reflection of forest growing potential of the agency. The existing forests mostly consist of wide leave class trees like chalghoza, kail (Himalayan pine, Pinus wallichiana), deodar (Himalayan cedar), small patches of chir and conifers like Oak with associated species such as ber, gurgura, neem, amaltas (Indian laburnum, Cassia fistula) and walnut (Geography and Habitat, 2015). 1.6 Minerals

The agency with huge reserves of refined Manganese and Chromite is one of the minerals rich areas of the tribal belt. The United States Department of Interior Geological Survey while giving the details about copper reserves in Boya area notes that; ―At these localities (Cu-17, 18, 19, 20) and probably others not yet described, copper mineralization is associated with metamorphosed volcanic rocks and sediments. The entire area should be investigated because of the likelihood that widespread regional copper mineralization extends as far north as Parachinar in Kurram Agency (Cu-22) and reportedly, to the west in Afghanistan, centering in the Sufaid Koh Range‖ (White, 1975).

Large deposits of different minerals including metallic and non-metallic minerals, precious stones and rocks for industrial use, and energy minerals have been identified across different parts of the agency. Although large-scale exploration activities halted due to militancy but local population is still engaged in limited mining activities (Minerals Development Plan- NWA, 2013). However, absence of formal mining industry has largely kept the locals away from economic riches annexed to unexplored reserves. Different areas with recognized mineral potentials are marked on the agency minerals map placed at annexure B.

Geological Survey of Pakistan has identified copper reserves in areas around Shinkai, Mohammad Khel and Boya. The exploration activities had been continuing in these areas at limited scale untill 1996 but lately the Shinkai area; with expected potential of 35 million ton (Ore form) was chosen for thorough exploration (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). The energy minerals like oil and gas near Isha and north of Mirali have yet not been quantified. Areas near Mohammad Khel, Saidgai and Dossali have un-quantified Chromite reserves (Minerals Development Plan- NWA, 2013).

Formal exploration of Copper, Manganese and Chromite has yet not started due to poor law and order situation emanated due to terrorism. Moreover, despite grant of exploration permit to OGDCL, exploration of oil and gas has also not commenced (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). However, political administration has started granting about 200 to 250 exploration permits; on monthly basis with government fee of Rupees 15000.00 per permit, to different individuals from local community who are engaged in limited scale mining of Chromite (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). The mined Chromite is transported to Karachi before ferrying it to China. The Saidgai and Shuidar area near Datta Khel also hold Manganese reserves with estimated quantity of about 0.12 Million ton of Ore. According to above cited report by mineral department, the Tore Kadi Khel and Saidgai areas are estimated to have 0.1 Million ton Ore; with 40 to 45 percent of Manganese (Minerals Development Plan- NWA, 2013). Although exploration permits were granted to local contractors in 2005 but the mining largely remained suspended due to security situation of the agency (Khan, 2008). Agency statistics showing the mining activity during the year 2014-15 are given in table 3 below.

Table 3: Mining Activity Year 2014 -15 Mineral Explored Ton

Chromite 118638

Manganese 89542

Limestone 0

Source: Geography and Habitat NWA, 2015

1.7 Communication Infrastructure

Agency communication infrastructure is undeveloped due to neglect by successive governments. The road network is mostly shingled with exception of black top roads connecting Miranshah with other population hubs of Bannu, Razmak, Ghulam Khan and Datta Khel. The envisioned modern silk route (Starr, Kuchins, Benson, Karkowski, Linn, and Sanderson, 2010) can help in socioeconomic transformation of the locals with the expansion of existing communication infrastructure. The construction works on Central Waziristan Road D.I Khan-Wana-Razmak-Miransha-Ghulam Khan and Bannu – Miranshah – Ghulam Khan road have already been completed ((N.Sahib, personal communication, October 25, 2016). Similarly other communication means including telephone and postal services are restricted to Miranshah and other major population centers of Mirali, Razmak, Shawal and Datta Khel. Brief details of the important elements of communication infrastructure in the area are listed below in table 4.

Table 4: Communication Infrastructure Communication Infrastructure Year 2014-15

Blacktop Roads in Kilometers 235

Roads per Square Kilometer 0.17

No of Post Offices 13

No of Telephones 1245

Source: Geography and Habitat NWA, 2015 1.8 Population

The agency is populated by the battle hardy Karlanri Pathans to include Darwesh Khel Wazir and Mehsud tribes. The population also includes smaller tribes like Dawars, Saidgai, Kharsin and Gurbaz. Both Wazir and Mehsud tribes have ancestral link but maintain their separate identity for all administrative purposes. Wazirs have Rajput origin and ethnological connections probably leading to the Indians with possible mixture of Scythian or Tartar blood (Ibbeston, 1987). The book ‗From the Black Mountains to

Waziristan‘ (Wylly., 1912) compares the Mehsud to a wolf and Wazir to a panther. Colonel Wylly (1912) writes that the Wazir tribes reside in different areas of the Tochi valley, the Shawal valley and along fertile banks of the Khaisora, Kaitu and Kurram rivers. However, Mehsud tribes mainly inhabit southern parts of the North Waziristan with Kaniguram and Makin as chief population centers; surrounded by Darwesh Khel Wazir except east. Historically Mehsud tribes have remained aloof and at war with Wazirs. The Edwards writes that "Of the Wazir, It is literally true that his hand is against every man and every man's hand against him‖ (Wylly, 1912).

Third main tribe is Dawar who are Ghurghusht Pathans from Kakai Karlanri branch. They are the offsprings of Shitak and therefore have intimate association with the Bannuchis. Traditionally Dawars are not categorized as true Pathans for supposedly being descendants from a mirasi wife of Shah Husain, who was the ruler of Ghor during eighth century (Wylly, 1912). Dawars are regarded to have ancestral links to the Shawal area of the agency; the place from where they along with the Bannuchis were forcefully expelled to present location by the Wazirs during fourteenth century. Presently the Dawars are residing in open valleys; surrounded by Wazirs who separate Upper Dawar from Lower Dawar land. The family tree of Karlani Pathans is given below at figure 1 (Caroe, 1958).

Figure 1: Karlani Genealogy

Source: ―The Pathan‖ by Sir Olaf Caroe (1958)

1.8.1 Population Distribution

The agency in north and north western parts is occupied by Utmanzai Wazir and Dawar tribes along with other minor tribes namely Saidgai, Kharsins and Gurbaz. The Malakshi Mehsud tribe inhabits the Shawal valley along inter agency boundary with South Waziristan. The Mehsud and Wazir tribes are hypersensitive towards inter agency boundary in the Shawal area. The Uzbek and Arab groups along with pockets of other foreigners have also been living in the area but due to military operation ‗Zarb-e-Azb‘ either they have been killed or ex-filtrated. An estimated population of the agency is about 0.5 million, as given below in Table 5. Known composition of various agency tribes based on estimated population is; Wazir 59%, Dawar 40% and Mehsud 1% (Sandhu, 2013). Few important population hubs in the agency are given at annexure C. The distribution of tribal population along with the connectivity infrastructure is also attached at annexure D and annexure E respectively.

Table 5: Population Distribution Sub-division 1998 Census 2013 Survey

Male Female Total Male Female Total

North Waziristan 192432 168814 361246 254254 223048 477302

Datta Khel 58706 51300 110006 77566 67781 145347

Dossali 10878 9604 20482 14373 12689 27062

Gharyum 2273 1644 3917 3003 2172 5175

Ghulam Khan 7112 6139 13251 9397 8111 17508

Mirali 49052 44803 93855 64811 59197 124007

Miranshah 36409 31121 67530 48106 41119 89225

Razmak 3497 2232 5729 4620 2949 7570

Spinwam 12546 10974 23520 16577 14500 31076

Shewa 11959 10997 22956 15801 14530 30331

Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

1.8.2 Utmanzai Wazirs and Mehsuds

Both Wazir and Mehsud tribes have their origin in the Afghan bordering district of Birmal and started their eastward movement towards the later part of 14th century; initially settling north of river Tochi before spreading southwards to the Gomal (General Staff Transcripts, 1921). The Royal Indian Army General Staff Transcripts (1921) while describing the sovereign nature of theses tribes observe that their character, organization and instincts have turned them an independent and extremely democratic to an extent that even Maliks (or elders) hold little control over theses unruly spirits. These true sons of Esau, the Waziristan tribes ―carry their lives in their hands and finding that the natural resources of their country do not favor them enough, they eke out their existence by plundering their more peaceful neighbors‖ (General Staff Transcripts, 1921). Among them any one may rise to the position of a Malik through his courage and wisdom, however the path is full of life threatening hazards as many of those who attempted the assumption of such authority had been assassinated (Imperial Gazzetteer of India, 1908).

The Wazir and Mehsud tribes are Sunni Muslims with no strictness in offering of their religious obligations and are not necessarily under much influence of their Mullahs. This makes these war hardy tribes relatively less fanatical when compared with other tribes inhabiting the frontier land. The example can be found in an historical incident occurred during the Jihad of Kashmir in 1947-48 where Mir Badshah Khan have been found publically squelching Mullah Fazil Din, son of Mullah Powindah, by saying that ―Don‘t give us advice on how to conduct battles and matters that don‘t concern you. You just lead prayers and wash bodies of our dead comrades according to Islam; we have other men to lead us in battle‖ (Ahmed, 1983). The Mehsud also narrate stories of their ancestors keeping even Mullah Powindah at his place by saying; ―You are a mullah; Stick to your traditional business only‖ (Ahmed, 1983). These tribes during the British military expeditions fervently challenged the British authority on all fronts. The Indian Governor General remarked that the ―Waziristan disturbance alone to be equal in the intensity to all other agencies‖ (Ahmed, 1983). Major clans of Utmanzai Wazir tribe along with their genealogy are given at annexure F.

1.8.3 Dawars

The Dawars; Ghurghust Pashtuns of Karlanri branch having ancestral link with the Shawal area are second largest tribe of the agency. The Wazirs forced the Dawars along with Bannuchis to leave their native areas in their present settlements (Wazir, 2016). Dawars tribes mostly inhabit the banks of rives Tochi starting from village Gharlamai to the Khajuri Post (General Staff Transcripts, 1921). Historically the Dawar tribes are the most assiduous, hardworking, and enduring cultivators and despite being unwarlike by nature, have successfully resisted the attempts by Wazir and Mehsud tribes to oust them from their settlements in Tochi valley (General Staff Transcripts, 1921).

During the year 1925; the Wazirs formally purchased Dawars‘ land holdings in Tochi valley (Imperial Gazzetter of India, 1908) which is still regretted by the Dawar due to their encirclement by the Wazir tribes. However, the Tappizad clan of the Lower Dawars is still occupying the areas from Shinki defile to Taghrai Tangi. The famous ‗Tochi Pass‘ running through the Dawar settlement areas had historically been used by different ancient invaders. It is believed that the Greece armies lead by ―Alexander the great‖ have also marched through the Tochi valley on their way to attack Multan (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908) and a mound near village Idak reflects the ancient history of the Dawar valley. Other Afghan invades like Sultan Mehmood Ghaznavi and Bahadur Shah marched through this valley to invade Bannu during 1000 A.D and 1700 A.D respectively (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908). Dawar tribes had always cherished their claim that attacked and repulsed the forces of the later thereby compelling him to pay a hefty amount to Dawar tribes to secure a safe return journey. During the subsequent years, the valley fell nominally during the reign of Ahmad Shah Abdali. However, the Dawar tribes virtually remained independent until 1895; when they came under the sphere of British India due to a treaty between the Royale Indian government and the Amir of Afghanistan (Imperial Gazetteer of India, 1908).

The Dawars are deeply democratic with Maliks having little authority unless possess strong followership among blood relations. Dawars are mostly influenced by their Mullahs having sole authority to ban anyone from religious congregations. In the lower Dawar area the village Hassu Khel is known as the ―land of Mullahs‖ (Imperial Gazette of India, 1908). Also the village Ipi in lower Dawar is famous for being the birth place of late Faqir of Ipi; Haji Mirza Ali Khan, who spent his early life in Ipi village (Warren, 2000). A

Dawar will always carry his weapon even in the mosque and will put it in front during his prayer. Major clans of the Dawar tribe along with their genealogy are given at annexure G.

1.8.4 Saidgai

The Saidgai tribe resides in the Danday plains with few settlements in Zoi near Maizar area in Tehsil Datta Khel and Dewagar in Tehsil Ghulam Khan. They get their political Kharcha (money) from Darpa Khel Dawars and Bora Khel Wazirs while sharing Nekat with Mohmit Khel Wazirs (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017).

Although the tribe claims its direct relation with the family of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) but no recorded evidence exists to trace the origin. The British government failed to explore and record the history of Saidgai tribes despite their settlement in Danday Saidgai area; an important entry route from Afghanistan. It is generally believed that ancestors of Saidgai tribes left Madina and on arrival in subcontinent during early eighteenth century, they settled in the Afghan areas of Ghazni, Urgun and Birmal with few choosing the Danday area of North Waziristan (A. Nasir, personal communication, January 10, 2017).

Sadigai tribe is sub-divided into two main clans of Malka Khel and Jibo Khel. Malka Khel is further sub-divided into Shodi and Boder Khels whereas the Jibo Khel into Zakar Khel and Dirmoni. The Shodi and Boder Khel clans comprise of Zoi and Dewagar Saidgais. The main population of the Zoi is in Maizar; Datta Khel area while Dirmoni‘s reside near Miranshah in Danday area (Imperial Gazette of India, 1908).

1.8.5 Gurbaz

The Gurbaz are Ghurghust Karlani Pathans of the Wazir origin. Sulaiman had two sons, Lalai and Khizrai. Lalai due to the reason of a blood feud had to flee to settle in the Nangarhar; on the northern slopes of the western Koh-e-Sufaid. The second son of Sulaiman ‗Khizrai‘; who had three sons Musa, Mahmud and Mubarak, is believed to be the ancestral father of Gurbaz.

The Gurbaz tribes had generally accompanied the Wazirs during their movements. Once they also had occupied the hilly land lay between Mehsud and Darwesh Khel Wazir; where the possession of Gabbar peak was disputed between Gurbaz and the Bittani tribes (Geography and Habitat, 2015). The Gurbaz maintained their occupation claim of Gabbar Mountains by defeating the Bittanis until they was driven out by Bittanis (Mehsud, 2000).

The present settlements of the Gurbaz exist towards north of Miranshah and west of Khost range with few residing between Khajuri and Shinki Tangi. The Gurbaz also have small village settlements in Masha, Ghulam Khan and Danday Darpa Khel areas with few other villages including Gensure, Kaskail, Lalizha, Kondi Kali and Barri Kali (A. Nasir, personal communication, January 10, 2017).

1.8.6 Kharsin

The militant tribe ‗Kharsin‘ claims their genealogy to Hazrat Bilal; companion of the Holy Prophet (PBUH). The tribes derived their name ―Kharsin‖ from a saint known as ―Gharshin‖ having two sons Chalak and Toradak. The off-springs of Chalak reside in Wozhghi whereas those of Toradak are settled in Zangotti. Few element of the Kharsin tribes also inhabit the Gurwek valley; north of Shawal and Doga area in Tehsil Datta Khel. Some of the clans from Kharsin tribes have also settled in Sabrina valley in Khost, Afghanistan. The Kharsin tribes earn their livings mostly through land cultivation and camel or donkey rearing and share their Nekat with Madda Khel Wazirs (Geography and Habitat, 2015). 1.9 The Leadership

Traditional Maliks and the recently emerged religious leadership have enormous influence over the local tribes. The tribal elders or Maliks and the religious leadership who are the most influentials among tribal community are briefly discussed in coming section.

1.9.1 The Maliks

The British Indian government introduced the system of Maliks to function as medium between agency administration and the "Qaum". The hereditary system where the ―Maliki‖ is transferred to son and his son and so on and so forth; for which regular subsidies and benefits are authorized from time to time. The Lungi system commonly termed as the Sufaid Resh is somewhat lower form of the Maliki system. There are 1631 Maliks and Lungi holders in the agency with perks and privileges amounting to Rs. 1212000.00 (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017).

Every tribe has its traditional elder ―Malik‖ who represents his tribe and enjoys the support of community and government echelons. The Maliks are awarded hereditary government allowances known as the ―Maliki Allowance‖ for their support to the government in dealing with tribal communities. During the recent years of militancy, the

25 terrorists had been targeting the Maliki system to kill the leading Maliks. Consequently the government appointed new Maliks who due to lack of requisite support failed to exercise traditional control over tribal affairs. Names of the eminent tribal elders are given at annexure H.

1.9.2 Religious Leadership

Traditionally the religion had been playing a dominant role in the overall sociocultural outlook of the local communities. The factor of Afghan Jihad following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan during 1979 and the subsequent influx of Pakhtun refugees in already hypersensitive area under study further fueled the situation. The situation worsened further when different terrorist outfits started exploiting the local respect for religion to muster absolute authority and to seek moral validation of their odious crimes. These terrorist groups were not familiar with basic tenets of Islam and therefore they neither practiced religion themselves nor did they allow the local population. The circumstances eventually led to the stripping of traditional influence from religious leadership and thus subjecting their institutional loyalty to complex questions. Few known religious personalities of the agency are given at annexure I. 1.10 Politico-Legal System

Traditionally the politico-legal system of the agency had been steered by the Pashtun customs and Jirga decisions. However, during 1877 the British Viceroy Lord Lytton introduced a comparatively defined political setup for tribal areas where central government would exercise direct administrative authority. Resultantly the government created different political agencies for implementation of conceived political system based on FCR (Khan, 2008). Under FCR a Political Agent with full administrative and judicial powers was appointed in each agency. The administrative system of the areas is based on the code of collective tribal territorial responsibility ostensibly enshrined in the tribal customs (Shinwari, 2010).

1.10.1 Political System

The political system remained enforced until the Indian independence Act of 1947 was passed and the treaties reached between the government of British India and tribes were quashed under clause 7; paragraph C of the Indian Independence Act (Khan, 2008). After the independence on 14th August 1947, the newly born state of Pakistan and the

26 tribal areas entered into new agreements. The political secretary Mr. A. S. B. Shah on behalf of the state of Pakistan signed these agreements with different tribes from 15 to 22 November 1947. The Governor General of Pakistan, Mr. Jinnah gave a solemn pledge to the tribes not to interfere in the internal affairs of the tribes in exchange for joining Pakistan‖ (Khan, 2010). Few of the main clauses of the mutually signed agreement have been enlisted at annexure J.

The agency being part of FATA functions under the executive authority of the Federation; as required vide Article 247 of the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Under Article 247 and the Statutory Notification SRO-109 dated 25th June 1970; the President of Pakistan exercises administrative authority in FATA and appoints governor KP to exercise executive authority in FATA on his behalf and in accordance with the directives of the President. Main provisions of the Article 246 of the 1973 constitution of Pakistan elaborating constitutional status of FATA have been enclosed at annexure K. Also names of the administrative heads of the important lines departments of the agency are given at annexure L.

1.10.2 Legal System

The agency like other parts of FATA enjoys a distinctive status in country‘s legal system. The legislative powers are vested in the president of Pakistan with acts of parliament having no applicability unless issued through presidential order after consultations with the locals. The agency under the constitution is divided into Protected and Tribal territories. The local tribes are granted special perks and kassadaries to maintain writ of the government in Protected Territory; semi-autonomous areas. The Khassadars are responsible for the security of roads, the state installations and other areas declared ―Protected Territories‖ with the mutual consent of the tribes and the agency administration. However, the government can take the cognizance of the crimes only in Protected Territory (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). Other parts of the agency have been declared as the Tribal territories; autonomous areas where writ of the state is non-existent. In these territories, the tribes exercise their right of governance in accordance with tribal customs. The layout of legal provisions as applicable in the agency is given below in figure 2 (next page).

Figure 2: Legal Provisions Part of Pakistan [Article 2 (C)] Constitutional Arrangement Definition of FATA [Article 246]

Administration of FATA [Article 247] Frontier Crimes Regulations 1901

Law Agreements between Tribesmen and Government

Tribal Riwaj /Customs FCR 1901 Protected Territory Legal Implications Agreements Agreements Tribal Territory Riwaj / Customs

Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil. Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

Contrary to the country‘s legal system, the Supreme Court and High Courts have been constitutionally barred to exercise jurisdiction in FATA including North Waziristan. The cases are dealt under the provisions of FCR with Political Agent or Assistant Political Agent assuming the role of judiciary. The decisions can be challenged in the appellate courts with first appeal to Commissioner FCR and then subsequently to four members FCR Tribunal including two retired Judges of the Superior Judiciary. The Tribunal is premier appellate court with authority of a High Court for all judicial matters. The layout of agency legal setup is given below in figure 3.

Figure 3: Layout of Legal Setup FCR Tribunal (Highest Court of Appeal) Independent Body (2x Civil Servants and 2x Retired Judges of High Court)

Commissioner FCR (Appellate)

Political Agent Assistant Political Agent (District Session Judges / DM) (Additional District Session Judges/ SDM)

Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil. Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

The agency administration can take cognizance of crimes both civil and criminal committed against person or state within the Protected Territory. In case of criminal acts, the tribe in whose area crime occurred is deemed responsible and hence tribal perks and privileges including Khassadaries are stopped forthwith. A notice for production of culprits is issued to the tribe believed responsible. The presiding officer on referral of the case appoints council of elders comprising of minimum three members selected with mutual consent of parties. The council examines the evidence presented by opposing parties and endeavours to reach at mutually acceptable decision. Later the final decision is referred to the presiding officer who by issuing the court order provides legal cover before implementation through tribal elders (Khan, 2016). Figures 4 and 5 below give details of the judicial process for civil and criminal cases respectively.

Figure 4: Judicial Procedures Civil Cases

Civil Nature Cases (Referral cases by any party)

Council of Elders (Nominated by Presiding officer in Consultation with both Parties)

Decision by Council of Elders

Legal Cover by the Presiding Officer through Court Decision

Implementation by Political Administration through Elders and LEAs Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil. Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

Figure 5: Judicial Procedures Criminal Cases

Criminal Cases (Cognizance by Administration) Crimes in Protected Territory only

Stoppage of Perks and Privileges by Presiding Officer

Arrest of Culprit/Kith and Kin

Council of Elders under FCR (Nominated by Presiding officer) Decision by Council of Elders as per FCR and agreement

Legal Cover by the Presiding Officer through Court Decision

Imprisonment

Implementation by Political Administration Fines on Tribes Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

1.11 Administrative System

North Waziristan is administratively divided into three sub-divisions including Miranshah, Mirali and Razmak. These sub-divisions are further sub-divided into ten small administrative units; named Tehsils as given below in figure 6 (K. Afridi, personal communication, January 13, 2017). The layout of agency administrative setup is given in figure 6 below.

Figure 6: Layout of Administrative Setup President of Pakistan

Governor Khyber Pukhtunkhwa

Political Agent/ DM FATA Secretariat

APO Miranshah/ADM APA (Development) APA Mirali/ADM APA Razmak/ADM

Development Works

PNT PNT PNT PNT PNT PNT Mirali Spinwam Shewa Dossali Garyum Razmak

PNT PNT PNT PNT PNTs are assisted by Miranshah Ghulam Khan Shawal Datta Khel Political Moharrars

Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil. Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

The system of political administration in the area is simple but unique in character. The governor KP being executive representative of the president of Pakistan administers the agency affairs through FATA Secretariat and the Political Agent. The Political Agent; the chief administrator as well as district magistrate is assisted by Additional Political Agent to administer the agency affairs. Whereas the Assistant Political Agents; additional district magistrates manage the administration at sub-division levels. The administrative responsibility at Tehsil level is further delegated to Tehsildar who is the Tehsil head. The political administration has no substantive administrative apparatus except Maliks who

30 have tribal influence and are formally recognized by the state as ―elders‖. The tribal Maliks apart from making the council of elders; commonly known as Jirga, act as intermediaries between local communities and the political administration. 1.12 Law Enforcement System

Traditionally tribal force ―Khasadars‖ and Frontier Corps have been assisting the political administration in the law enforcement. However due to recently emerged phenomenon of terrorism, the armed forces also moved into the arena creating three fold law enforcement apparatus. The three tiered system is shown in figure 7 below.

Figure 7: Law Enforcement Agencies

Khasadars (Tribal Force to guard Protective and Political Territorial Responsibilities) Force Levy (Raised to assist the Political Administration in

Policing) Guarding the Borders with Afghanistan Frontier Corps Internal Security and anti-smuggling role Assist Political Administration in maintaining Law and Order Internal Security Pakistan Army Counter Terrorism Assist Political Administration in maintaining Law and Order

Including development activities Source: North Waziristan; Prospects for Development (M.Phil Thesis), Sandhu, 2013.

1.12.1 Political Force

There are two components of this force; namely the levy force and the Khassadars. The levy serves as the tribal police function under the direct control of political administration. After a long period of suspension, this force has been revived recently. The second component ‗Khasadars‘ is the force of tribesmen having strong allegiance towards respective tribes rather than State. Although the Khassadars are paid by the state but they

31 themselves arrange the weapons and ammunition while preventing crimes in the Protected Territory. The effectiveness of Khasadars absolutely depends upon the tribal consent and is therefore completely redundant tribal assent. The recruitment of Khassadars is carried out according to the tribal sharing, known as Nekat. Currently enrolled number of Khassadars is about 3703. The salaries and other expenditures incurred annually on levies and Khasadars is about Rupees 190 Million (Y. Akhunzada, personal communication, October 7, 2016).

1.12.2 Frontier Corps

The para military forces of Tochi Scouts and Shawal Riles functioning under the Ministry of Interior are primarily responsible to guard the western international border. The force in addition to its primary role also helps political administration to control cross border flow of contraband items and to conduct security operations if required. However the recent operational requirements; arisen due to fight against terrorism, necessitated the transfer of conventional command mechanism of Frontier Corps to regular armed forces of the country.

2.12.3 Pakistan Army

The country‘s armed forces marched into the agency after traditional administrative mechanism of the agency virtually collapsed. The terrorists supported by their foreign accomplices took the tribal elders hostage thus creating sociopolitical chaos in the area. The armed forces after unprecedented sacrifices restored the law and order situation in the agency after successful military operation Zarb-e-Azb. Having flushed the terrorists out of their hideouts from North Waziristan, the armed forces are now engaged in the post operational rehabilitation activities for socioeconomic developments. 1.13 Chapter Summary

This chapter gives an overview of the geography, climate and demographic profile of the turbulent North Waziristan. Apart from introducing the reader with the socioeconomic potentials of the area including its agriculture, water, livestock and minerals, the chapter also gives a brief account of different civic facilities available in the area. The chapter also enlightens the readers with the politico-legal as well as administrative systems of the agency for better understanding of the deep-rooted problems to comprehend the environments for proposed rehabilitation framework.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

Maximum relevant published literature on North Waziristan; corresponding with study research questions, has been discussed in this chapter. The literature has covered the agency especially geographical features, local customs and tribal traditions, its economic potentials, its system of administration and governance. The literature also covers important geostrategic environments after the commencement of United States led military operations in Afghanistan. Subsequently the FATA region especially North Waziristan emerged as the most discussed topic in the national and international electronic and print media. This added enormous literary work to the existing literature most of which discussed the war against terrorism. This literature includes innumerable articles by academicians and different reports of NGOs, journalists or government officials. The literature review includes articles from various reports, journalists, interviews, governmental reports and expert opinions. The conceptual framework of research has also emerged from the reviewed literature for broader insight of the problem statement. 2.1 Parental Paradigm

Parent theories of this research come from social engineering theory through application of system‘s thinking approach. While explaining the causes of conflict, the social engineering theory explained how states, individuals and groups in a society work to maximize their own benefits. The states, groups and individuals at the driving seat try to achieve their strategic objectives by exploiting different sociocultural dimensions of subject society. Thus, if the process of social engineering doesn‘t remain under control then different types of violence and conflicts will emerge and eventually will run out of control thus leading to movement, or even civil wars. On the other hand systems‘ thinking approach offers a detailed analysis of the conflict dimensions while providing a foundation for a post conflict rehabilitation framework thereby addressing the remaining Hypotheses. 2.2 Historical Perspective

The North Waziristan had remained isolated from external influences due to its geographical location throughout the recorded history of FATA region. Various foreign invaders; looking for the Indian riches, mostly used passes of the northern region thus exposing local tribes to certain degree of outside influences. Whereas the tribes from southern region had witnessed trade activities by different traveling groups coupled with

34 incursion and occupation by the Persian armies. However due to geographical barriers the Waziristan area; both South and North Waziristan agencies, had stayed relatively isolated from external influences (Ahmad, 1983). The North Waziristan due to its significance during different geostrategic dispensations has always been a field of immense research attraction for contemporary scholars. This special scholarly interest was primarily developed after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that witnessed Afghan jihad throughout 1980s. The geostrategic environments emerged after launching of Operation Enduring Freedom developed the special academic interests in the North Waziristan agency; that were further enhanced due to its linkages with the heinous acts of terrorism occurred across Pakistan.

The events of 19th century ‗Great Game‘ predominantly shaped the current geopolitical fortune of the region (Hopkirk, 1992). These events forced the Pashtun tribes to confront contemporary military powers due to Anglo-Afghan wars during 1839 and in 1878. Having failed to gain headway inside Afghanistan, both former Soviet Union and Britain mutually decided to accept Afghanistan as buffer zone between them. Subsequently during 1893, both British India and the Afghan governments mutually demarcated Durand Line as an international border between them. The drawing of the international border however had no impact on lives of the local tribes residing on either side of the border as they continued to maintain strong ethnic and family connections through Easement Rights. In-addition the British Indian government accorded a semi- autonomous status to FATA tribes, protected through constitution even after inception of Pakistan on August 14th, 1947 (Haq, Khan, and Nuri, 2005).

The forces of British Indian government remained continuously committed in military combat with the local tribes of the Waziristan mainly the Wazirs and Mehsuds during most of the 19th century. This protracted conflict attracted many contemporary scholars to venture for intellectual exploration of the Waziristan agency. However the Royal Indian Army General Staff Transcripts (1921) compiled during insurgencies of 19th and 20th centuries offer most authentic insight about this strategically important area. The Waziristan area during the period of Cold War rivalries between former Soviet Union and her Western opponents including the United States assumed a geostrategic significance due to its close proximity to the communist ally Afghanistan. A lot was added to the literature about North Waziristan during the period of Afghan Jihad against former Soviet Union. However, after the Soviet withdrawal that led to the end of cold war, there was no

35 substantial addition in the literature. The events which preceded the fateful incident of September 11th, 2001, especially United States led military campaign against Afghan Talibans yet again put the agency in limelight. The period has witnessed huge literary surge in the context of war on terror with no or very little mention of the present day difficulties faced by locals. However, the study of this important aspect essential to understand the factors that contributed terrorism remained mostly confined to the official documents and government functionaries due to lacked access scholarly access during the same period. The British era documents had elaborately described the geographic boundaries of North Waziristan. While explaining the local populace, the Imperial Gazetteer of India (1908) states that ―with the exception of the Dawars of the Dawar valley, the people of Northern Waziristan belong to the Darwesh Khel branch of the Wazirs, who are divided into two main sections, the Utmanzai and Ahmadzai. Both these sections are sub-divided into numerous clans‖. It also gives a brief account of various tribal raids on British Indian forces and government functionaries that eventually transformed into a full-scale military campaign during 1897. During the month of June 1897, the Political Agent Mr. Gee accompanied by a strong force went to different villages around Datta Khel to enforce the collection of fine. The villagers initially welcomed the force and offered their traditional hospitality. Meanwhile they started gathering to prepare for a bloody raid without being noticed by the relaxing British troops. The attacking villagers treacherously killed five British officers and scores of other British Indian soldiers. Resultantly the British Army embarked on a belligerent military campaign to punish the culprits and destroy their lands.

The Imperial Gazetteer of India (1908) while giving an account of the local economy explains that ―the lands of the valley are extremely rich, and grow heavy crops of maize, rice, millet, sugar-cane, wheat and barley. Mulberry, chinar, willow, and fruit trees do best. There is an extensive weaving industry for which cotton is imported. The cultivated area is 15262 acres, or about five eighths of an acre per head of population. Tenants cultivate about one-third of this area and pay heavy rents in kind, two-thirds of the gross production being the usual amount. Goats and sheep find good grazing in the neighbouring hills, despite their barren appearance‖. While describing local population, the Gazetteer (1908) notes that the Wazir tribes are the descendants of Darwesh Khel branch and are further sub divided in Utmanzai and Ahmadzai wazirs. Both of these subsections of Darwesh Khel are composed of several clans.

The ‗Operations in Waziristan; 1919-1920‘ , a compilation of the Royal Indian Army General Staff (1921) gives credible account of sociopolitical dimensions of the agency. The transcripts have discussed the geography and sociocultural aspects of the Waziristan inhabitants. It has graded the Wazirs and Mehsuds ―…among the finest fighters in the world while operating in their own territory... and the ―…best umpires in the world because they seldom allowed a tactical error to go unpunished‖ (General Staff Transcripts, 1921). An account of the British army‘s Waziristan campaigns is also given in numerous books published during the same period. The book ‗From the Black Mountains to Waziristan‘ written by Colonel Wylly (1912) has been among the widely read books on military history. Apart from describing the Waziristan tribes, the book contains details of the agency communication infrastructure as well as details about psyche and nature of the Pashtun areas and the armed struggle they offered to the external invasions. The book notes that ―No roads through Waziristan lead to Afghanistan - at least no roads that are better than mere mountain footpaths‖ (Wylly, 1912). The author while discussing nature of the agency tribes states that the ―Wazirs are an especially democratic and independent people, and even their own Maliks have little real control over them‖ (Wylly, 1912).

The book ‗Pathan Revolt in North West India‘ by Mills (1897) contains literature about the cunning nature of the Wazir tribes. However the author has given very sketchy details of the essential socioeconomic aspects of the agency. The book ‗Waziristan to Tibet‘ written by Lucas (2012) has mostly discussed the aspect of militancy and the resulting British military campaigns. He has also given a brief account of the British policy in dealing with the local tribal population. The writer states that according to Mr. Brandener; lack of resolve for development is the root cause of the conflict. The author quotes Mr. Brandener who said, ―We seem to have hoped that civilization would simply rub off by contact with us. But it hasn‘t happened‖ (Lucas, 2012). The view shared by Mr. Brandener signifies the belief that only meaningful development initiatives can check the emergence of militancy born state of conflict that have been prevailing in the agency since decades. The author further reinforces the notion of development by citing Mr. Arthur who commented that ―In the long run the only way forward is to civilize the beggars to the point where all this is a thing of past‖ (Lucas, 2012).

The book of Sir Olaf Caroe (1958) ‗The Pathan‘ is one of the most splendid literary works that described the history of Pathans of the tribal region including North Waziristan. The book reflects the writer‘s love for culture, code, language and the tribal

37 land. The Olaf Caroe‘s publication falls in the must read category for basic understanding of the latest developments in FATA in the historical context. Another book ‗Among the Wild Tribes of the Afghan Frontier‘ gives valuable account of Mr. Pennell (1909) who was in charge Bannu medical mission. The officer due to his close interaction and relationships with local tribes has comprehensively discussed their domestic, social, moral and religious affairs (Pennell, 1909). Yet another book ‗The Romance of the Indian Frontiers‘ by MacMunn (1931) gives an impressive account of the frontier regions, Afghans and Mughuls. The book provides details about the migrations in the frontier regions of the sub-continent including contemporary armies and wars. The writer has reviewed the events of Indian frontiers‘ struggles with special reference to the frontier rebellion of 1897 (MacMunn, 1931).

The book ‗The Way of the Pathans‘ by Spain (1962) reflects the authors‘ understanding of the tribal community and their cultural code of Pukhtunwali. The writer while taking into account the elements of the history and different traditional stories has offered a detailed of different frontier tribes visited by him. The book contains a complete chapter on Khushal Khan Khattak who was a tribal ‗warrior poet‘ (Spain, 1962). Spain in another publication ‗The Pathan Borderland‘ has discussed the people, the land and culture of the tribal areas in conventional ethnography. The writer has described the history and the politics of tribal areas that emerged with the start of British control and finally ended with the creation of Pakistan (Spain, 1985). The author has discussed major historical events of the region including unrest of the frontier region, the Afghan wars, Indian partition before finally ending up with the geopolitical role played by tribal areas during 1960s.

Another book ‗The Tribal Areas of Pakistan a Contemporary Profile‘ by Teepu Mahabat Khan (2008) is a detailed description of the tribal areas covering the entire spectrum of topics related to the tribal society of Pakistan, including their origins, history, social profile, administrative structure and development interventions. The author has explained the details of related issues in the context of agency geostrategic setting, historical processes, social ideology and institutional structure. The book has also attempted to develop an understanding of the cross cutting issues of socioeconomic and structural reforms in the context of historical events shaping local responses to external threats making asymmetrical regional power dynamics, the spread of externally induced

38 disruption and internal distortions related to institutional, legal political and social reform (Khan, 2008).

The book ‗Waziristan (1936-1937); The Problems of the North-West Frontier of India and Their Solutions‘ written by Bruce (1938) gives most striking account of the British era Waziristan region. The writer considers the non-involvement of local population‘s in the political process and the absence of government led development initiatives as the root causes of Waziristan conflict. The book while questioning the ethical authority of the Waziristan military operations writes, ―Have we continued to develop the country and its resources in the interests of the tribes?‖ (Bruce, 1938). The questions put forward by the author appear to be applicable even during 21st century. The present day militancy has the roots in the lack of development; which can be traced back to the colonial sociopolitical system functioning across the tribal areas. The author argues ―there is only one true remedy and that is to do away with all feeble make-shifts such as Protected Areas and by the exercise of a just and civilizing control, secure safety of life and property and development of the country. Thus only can we hope to secure the respect of the tribes on both sides of the border and bring them definitely in on our side, a source of strength instead of an ever present danger‖ (Bruce, 1938).

The book ‗Waging War in Waziristan: The British Struggle in the Land of Bin Laden, 1849-1947 (Modern War Studies)‘ by Andrew (2010) has discussed the British government policy towards Waziristan from the operational perspective. He believes that the British government made sound strategic choices regarding Waziristan areas. The author observes that the North Waziristan is one of the remote areas of Pakistan; inhibited by frontier tribes who are fiercely independent and always remain united to fend off external forces. He states that the area possesses mountainous scenery that has always served as natural sanctuary to the Talibans with as much gun powder as it had during the British era (Andrew, 2010). The author mentions that the Fakir of Ipi waged his guerrilla struggle against the British from this area. Mr. Andrew who was soldier by profession has explained that how British containment policy was pursued to control local tribes with the help of local elements by combining the enticement and force to maintain control over tribal areas (Andrew, 2010). He highlights the tribal spirit of Waziristan culture thereby providing fresh perspective on the Bin Laden‘s chose to select Waziristan as base camp for Al-Qaida. He forcefully claims that the measures adopted to appease the locals during past are equally applicable even today. The author impresses upon the use of military force

39 as a last resort and instead advocates the need of balancing both the political and military initiatives. The book carrying his British era solutions of the similar problems have momentous value for present day policymakers and the military leadership engaged in North Waziristan. 2.3 Studied Variables

2.3.1 Terrorism

The areas on either side of the Durand Line remained mostly dormant during the four decades rule of Afghan King Zahir Shah. However, the environments of instability served as catalyst for overthrow of his weak and fragmented government by the communist People‘s Democratic Party during 1978. The religious components of the Afghan society led by local and foreign mujahedeen, defied the radical reforms including changes in land ownerships, implementation of new taxes, compulsory education for women and their involvement in liberal activities that were un-acceptable in traditionally conservative Afghan society (Sikorski, 1990). The armed forces of former Soviet Union entered the Afghan land in 1979 to help her Afghan communist allies in Kabul being apprehensive of the presence of an Islamic state along her soft underbelly of Muslim majority states of Central Asia. This direct involvement of Soviet Union further aggravated the situation resulting into increased armed resistance that eventually turned into the call for Jihad. The Afghan resistance was brutally dealt by the red army destroying the already deteriorating socioeconomic conditions of an under-developed country. During the period of occupation spanning over around ten years, the red army and their communist allies in Kabul allegedly killed about 1.3 million Afghans, destroyed communication infrastructure and forced approximately 5.5 million Afghans to seek refuge in Iran and Pakistan, with bulk of them settled in the tribal belt of Pakistan ('nyi'shtab, Grau, and Gress, 2002). The Soviet Union despite making heavy investments in human and material resources never gained any unchecked access to the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan (Edwards, 1998). The Soviet Union after unsuccessful decade long military operations in Afghanistan withdrew her forces in February 1989 and left the communist ally Najibullah‘s government to fend itself.

The Taliban cadre emerged from the madrassas established in the Pashtun refugee camps established in the Pakistani tribal region (Commins, 2006). These madrassas pursued and influenced their admitted students to adopt ―an ultraconservative approach to

40 social issues and politics‖ (Marden, 1998). The local population despite having differences about religious fundamentalism espoused by Talibans fighters, rallied behind them for their promise to eliminate the menace of narcotics, warlords and establish peace (Ahmed, 1999). The phenomenon of fighting by the theological students for ostensible rights and freedom was not a new one. Winston Churchill spoke of a ―host of wandering Talib-ul- Ilums who correspond with the theological students in Turkey and live free at the expense of the people‖ (Johnson, 2008). The atmosphere and the tradition of virtuous students on the quest for peace gave the religious students affinity with the Pashtun population. Talibans fame spread rapidly giving them continuous success during their struggle for consolidation of power.

The Talibanization has the roots in the Russian invasion of Afghanistan during early 1980s when FATA; especially North Waziristan was used as training base for Mujahedeen who were sponsored by both the United States and the Pakistan. The agency turned into a hotbed of extremism with sprouting madrassas, plenty of modern weapons and influx of Afghan refugees radically impacting the socioeconomics of the area. Even after withdrawal of occupant Soviet forces and accomplishment of objectives of Afghan jihad, most of the foreign fighters belonging to Arab countries settled in areas around Miranshah and Mirali. Since they had been living with local population during the period of Afghan jihad therefore were conveniently absorbed in the local society through marriages (Gull, 2009). The emergence of Talibans from local madrassas was viewed sympathetically due to their ethnic, ideological and religious connections along with their cultural affinities. Subsequent to United States led military operation against Afghan Talibans during 2002, radicalized components of the Waziristan society marshaled their support for ousted Taliban rulers. Taliban sympathizers from the Waziristan community have also been at odds with the country‘s armed forces which corresponding to NATO military campaign commenced anti-terrorist operations across FATA. They covertly started targeting the country‘s security forces and the government functionaries. Later during the year 2007 local Taliban elements along with their sympathizers across FATA joined hands to create an umbrella organization ‗Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan‘ with Baitullah Mehsud as its first head (Roggio, 2009).

Few of the madrassas established in the North Waziristan during Afghan jihad have mixed the religious and ethnic sentiments therefore serving as ideal recruiting ground for Talibans. An expert in the field of madrassa studies; Mohammed Ali Siddiqi considers

41 the phenomenon as ‗an accident of history‘. The writer argues that after Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan the ‗leadership fell into the hands of Pashtuns because they had successfully defended against communist occupation‘ (Afshar, Sample, and Wood, 2008). Moreover due to lead role in defeating the Soviet forces, the madrassas developed a reputation of institutions for recruitment of Mujahedeen; an important social capital responsible for success or failures of Taliban based terrorism (Afshar, Sample, and Wood, 2008). The Pashtuns due to their ethnic and cultural peculiarities have always been the most vulnerable group to fall prey to ethnic social engineering.

Ahmad (2013) in his article titled ―Insurgency in Fata: Causes and A Way forward‖ observes that prior to the events of September 11th, 2001, tribal areas of Pakistan were peaceful. The author believes that the terrorism experienced by locals is not an indigenous phenomenon but has trickled into the area from western side of the international border after United States‘ failure to achieve her stated objectives. He observes that the NATO forces have been carrying out counter insurgency operations in the Pak – Afghan border areas without informing Pakistani counterparts that eventually resulted militants‘ infiltration into the tribal areas of Pakistan (Ahmad, 2013). He believes that the United States sabotaged the peace agreements reached between the state of Pakistan and local Talibans by carrying out targeted drone strikes and media propaganda. Such hostile external policies impeded the government efforts to harness local social capital thus resulting into joining of terrorist outfits by local youth (Ahmad, 2013).

Leghari (2008) believes that prior to the Soviet invasion of the Afghanistan during late seventies, the sociopolitical structure of tribal areas including North Waziristan was two dimensional. The two dimensions included ‗tribal code‘ and the ‗state institutions‘ which over the years continued functioning peacefully (Leghari, 2008). The Soviet invasion and the pulling out of the international community without installing a rehabilitation mechanism in Afghanistan introduced the third and the most destructive element of Talibanization or the terrorism (Leghari, 2008).

Hilali (2013) despite multiple politico-administrative complexities terms tribal areas as the most peaceful regions in Pakistan ever since 1947. These areas remained stable both during the period of Afghan occupation by communist forces and even during the internal fighting among different Afghan warlords (Hilali, 2013). During this period around five million Afghan refugees had been residing peacefully in the tribal areas of 42

Pakistan including area under study. The agency remained relatively calm even during the initial phases of United States led attack on Afghan soil. However subsequent surge in NATO led military operations in Afghanistan gradually developed a state of conflict in the tribal areas particularly the North Waziristan agency (Hilali, 2013).

Mohammad (2003) believes that geography plays a defining role in bringing prosperity to nations. He argues that the local tribes had always resisted any external attempt to invade their land including efforts of Great Chengiz Khan, Taimur the Lame, the Mughals, the Turks, the British Empire and the cold war rivals of former Soviet Union and the United States (Mohammad, 2003). The writer notes that on behest of international players during early 1980s, the agency was inappropriately turned into a recruitment and training center to fight the communist armies (Mohammad, 2003). Subsequently the international community left the region without instituting any rehabilitation program for social reintegration of the fighters created to defeat communism.

The communities from tribal region of Pakistan are historically familiar with range of weapons. The years of Afghan jihad however exposed them to the heavy weaponry provided by western countries. During the same period foreign funded religious madrassas that served as sources of recruitment for insurgents had also been mushrooming. However the United States led attack on Afghanistan during 2002 has changed the geostrategic environments of the area and the North Waziristan once allied operational base against communist forces has now been become a safe haven for insurgents (Rana, 2009). On the other hand, the residents have started believing that both Pakistan and United States are destroying the peace of tribal areas and are responsible for locals‘ displacement (Hussain, 2012). Hussain (2012) believes that the presence of foreign forces on the Afghan land resulting into refugees crises have fomented instability in the North Waziristan. He also claims that militancy in the agency is mostly dominated by Haqqani network as Haqqani network led by Afghan Taliban leader Siraj-ud-Din Haqqani has been using the agency as its operating base to attack NATO forces (Hussain, 2012).

Mahmood (2017) claims that due to American interest in the region FATA has become the battle zone and safe haven for militant. These militant have killed thousands of tribal elders and caused displacement of hundreds of thousands from their respective areas (Mahmood, 2017). It is evident from the history that residents of tribal areas of Pakistan have resisted all outsiders including the Pakistan army. These tribes have offered great sacrifices for the protection of Pakistan. Malik (2013) believes that the agency; like other

43 parts of FATA has been a place for recruiting and training of the militants to wage attack on Afghanistan (Malik, 2013). Malik (2013) further writes that the government should stop differentiating between good Taliban and bad Taliban. He argues that the outsiders should be informed that the tribal people are fed up with war and now they want peace in FATA, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Malik, 2013). He suggests that the Unites States and the NATO should show leniency towards the militants to let them resettle in their areas and the local community should be rehabilitated through compensation and providing opportunities for livelihood (Malik, 2013).

Hussain (2009) writes that the Waziristan; predominately inhibited by Mehsud and Wazir tribes has been the hot bed of TTP militancy and operating base of militatnt leader Baitullah Mehsud until his death. He observes that Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI-F) headed by Maulana Fazlur Rehman had been negotiating peace deals between the security forces and militant organizations (Hussain, 2009). The author believes that the peace deals facilitated by Maulana Fazlur Rehamn between the government and the South Waziristan militants during 2004 had the far reaching effects because these allowed a breathing space to local militants. They were able to institute a parallel Taliban styled policing system and the local Sharia court system, thereby encouraging the spread of terrorism born conflict in the North Waziristan (Hussain, 2009).

Khan Zeb Burki (2010) in his article ―Rise of Taliban in Waziristan‖ claims that the culture of Jihad emerged in Waziristan during the era of British imperialism in late 19th and early 20th centuries. He believes that Talibanization of tribal society lies in the country‘s Afghan policy followed during 1980s (Burki, 2010). The author argues that both internal and external elements who socially engineered the local youth to recruit fighters to defeat communist forces in Afghanistan are responsible for present day turmoil (Burki, 2010). In the absence of planned rehabilitation strategy these Taliban fighters turned into an organized force and challenged the national integration in the aftermath of Unites States intervention in Afghanistan. He notes that the Pakistan government under external obligations started military operations in both South and North Waziristan agencies to control the militants which in turn developed a concept of ‗defensive jihad’ in Pakistan (Burki, 2010). Initially the local militants organized themselves under the leadership of Naik Muhammad; a militant commander from South Waziristan. After his death in a drone attack during 2004, they selected Abdullah Mehsud as his successor to expand Talibanization to other parts of tribal region. To achieve their objective they appointed

44 local commanders for different factions including Baitullah Mehsud group, Maulvi Nazir group, Hafiz Gul Bahader group, Sadiq Noor group, Punjabi Talibans and many other small groups that developed after launch of military operations. Later during 2007, an organized structure of local Talibans was formed with the name of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud (Burki, 2010).

Another book titled ‗Dynamics of Taliban Insurgency in FATA’ by Muhammad Amir Rana, Safdar Sial, and Abdul Basit (2010) gives a detailed account of Talibansization in FATA in the aftermath of United States led military attack on Afghan land. The book has discussed various historical events especially the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan that created power vacuum enticing local warlords and their transnational sympathizers to fill this vacuum. The book has also described how Talibans militants subsequently moved into the North Waziristan after United States led attack in Afghanistan during 2002 that toppled their government in Kabul. The authors (2010) have also explained how sociopolitical vacuum in the agency helped militants to re-establish their strongholds left after Afghan jihad. They have also attempted to explore various dynamics of terrorism driven insurgency in the agency. The book also explains the host of factors that caused surge in militancy including the state neglect, poor socioeconomic conditions and ideological influence of foreign militants on local terrorists. The authors (2010) have also given different counterinsurgency perspectives with special focus on the country‘s tribal areas and their regional implications. Whereas the term Terrorism has been defined as ―Terrorism is an anxiety-inspiring method of repeated violent action, employed by (semi-) clandestine individual, group or state actors, for idiosyncratic, criminal or political reasons, whereby – in contrast to assassination – the direct targets of violence are not the main targets. The immediate human victims of violence are generally chosen randomly (targets of opportunity) or selectively (representative or symbolic targets) from a target population, and serve as message generators. Threat- and violence- based communication processes between terrorist (organization), (imperilled) victims, and main targets are used to manipulate the main target (audience(s)), turning it into a target of terror, a target of demands, or a target of attention, depending on whether intimidation, coercion, or propaganda is primarily sought‖ (UNODC, 2007). In this study the term Terrorism has been operationalized as establishment of foreign funded madrassas, Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars and successive peace agreements with the local terrorists.

2.3.2 Civic Services

The North Waziristan if studied through the lens of history amply signifies that the area has seen frequent internal tribal feuds and numerous large scale military expeditions against local population. These battles in the absence of any socioeconomic infrastructure further worsened the already fragile social structure of the agency. The recent environment of terrorism born conflict is being wrongly related to the tribal notion of independence. Colonel Bruce (1938) in his book has cited his discussion with the famous Raider ‗Khonia Khel‘ to disregard the erroneous belief that the headmen of the Waziristan tribes cannot control their tribes due to their independent nature. After his discussion with the ‗Raider - Khonia Khel‘ he concluded that the absence of requisite socioeconomic incentives in the agency had resulted into the culture of militancy faced by the British government. While talking to Colonel Bruce the local raider Khonia Khel remarked that ―Sahib, I have three wives and five strapping sons like my-self, and several sisters with large families. You have stopped me raiding in …as in the Tochi valley. Now I hear you are going to stop me raiding in the Khaisora. You will not even allow me to raid in Birmal or Khost, although these valleys are in Afghanistan. There has been no rain and so no grazing for my flocks. How, then, am I to live?‖ (Bruce, 1938).

Hoffmann (2009) in his work has deliberated upon the causes of underdevelopment of the tribal areas part of Pakistan. He observes that the geostrategic location of the agency has turned into a source of agony for local population because different terrorist groups have settled there (Hoffmann, 2009). In the absence of effective governance mechanism, these groups have assumed the control of the area. The terrorists have killed scores of tribal elders thus destroying the traditional conflict controlling mechanism and consequently established unchallenged authority. The author argues that these insurgent groups engage the unemployed and uneducated local youth for different terrorist activities on handful wages (Hoffmann, 2009). He comments that the area has turned out to be base for terrorism inside and outside Pakistan. He also suggests that the strategy to fight the war against terrorism needs to be reviewed and the existing socioeconomic conditions should be improved by eradicating poverty and providing employments and education (Hoffmann, 2009).

Noor-ul-Haq (2010) explains that the terrorism is consequent of poverty, absence of livelihood opportunities and sense of deprivation. He believes that the persistent policy of neglect pursued by the state afforded opportunity to the external hostile powers to fuel 46 the militancy especially in the North Waziristan (Haq, 2010). He also claims that popular misperception regarding ethical justification of war on terrorism created by radical elements of the society to promote their financial interests has also contributed to surge in terrorism. The writer believes that the ―militants are pursuing a foreign agenda of destabilization of Pakistan by using the name of Islam to declare it a failed State so that its nuclear assets could be captured‖ (Haq, 2010). The socioeconomic deprivations of local population especially lack of basic amenities of life including health facilities, education facilities, water and sanitation systems and the governance failures to introduce politico- administrative reforms in the area has led to the emergence of radicalism. The terrorist organizations therefore have been successful to engage the local youth along with the distressed elements of Afghan jihad (Haq, 2010).

Rakists (2008) in his article writes that Melmastia (unconditional hospitality) as an important cultural tribute of the tribal population which is granted to whoever demands. Majority of the insurgents including foreigners have taken refuge under this cultural code as a guest, a criminal, a friend or an enemy. He observes that when government of Pakistan demanded the handing over of these foreign elements, the locals refused to do so which ultimately led to the military operations in this region (Rakists, 2008).

Many scholars believe that the problems of militancy are generally created by the system of poor governance and the denial of relief to the citizens through routine political, legal, administrative and economic processes. They claim that sense of deprivation among local youth and the compromise on merit, excellence, and professionalism promote militancy as the citizens find no customary channel to redress their grievances (Alam, Muhammad, Kifayat, and Ahmad, 2014). They also observe that Talibanization had been growing amidst political instability and ethnic tensions. The authors note that suicide bomber is the most horrendous fact of this culture where raw minds of the local youth are prepared to kill innocent population besides taking their own life. They say that an unemployed local youth finds a job to earn living, an ideology to live with and a new militant family among which they feel security and sense of belongingness (Alam, Muhammad, Kifayat, and Ahmad, 2014). The writers argue that in Pakistan the outcome of journey of extremism is a prejudiced culture being forced on a society which is eager to live a productive and modern life.

Crises Group Asia Report (2009) on FATA militancy has highlighted different reasons of backwardness of tribal people in terms of their culture and traditions. It is

47 evident from the history that several regimes in Pakistan have exploited the tribal people by using religious card and motivated them for jihad for their political gains (Crises Group Report, 2009). The report claims that following the United States pressure Pakistan withdrew her support to Talibans that turned them against Pakistan being the front ally in war on terrorism. This shift in state policy has created anarchy, exploitation, uncertainty, radicalisms, religious narrow mindedness and sectional division which has ruined the peaceful and very fabric of the region (Crises Group Report, 2009). The report also claims that the non-availability of jobs, educational, skills training, and lack of entertainment facilities have also helped extremists groups in hiring of unemployed local youth.

North Waziristan can be described with high poverty and unemployment indicators with undeveloped socioeconomic infrastructure. After about eighty years of the incident cited by Colonel Bruce (1938), still there is a need to acknowledge that terrorism and socioeconomic reconstruction are two mutually dependent phases of societal development. Post Crisis Need Assessment report (2010) outlines socioeconomic development details of the area from 2003/4 to 2008/9. The report claims that during five year period between 2003/4 and 2008/9 growth was strong, poverty rates were falling towards convergence with the rest of Pakistan, unemployment was abating and public spending was rising in support of better services (PCNA, 2010). However intensification of conflict in mid-2009 reversed these advances and the deterioration in security, weak rule of law and absence of public services greatly undermined the economic development (PCNA, 2010). This poor socioeconomic state of the agency is directly linked to the terrorism driven conflict. The report reads that comparatively small shocks translate into large increases in destitution and poverty rates, as people close to the poverty line slip. Thus the large shocks associated with conflict or escalation will doubtless have caused much hardship and increased poverty rates substantially (PCNA, 2010).

Riaz Khan (2011) in his article claims that the government policies and international pressure are responsible for radicalization of the Pakistani society. The major factors responsible for the polarization are the division of the society on the basis of sectarian line and poor economics which caused radicalization of local youth (Khan, 2011). The state and non-state actors have exploited religion as an instrument to mobilize youth to serve the international interests. The author however believes that the socioeconomic factors are one of the reasons of radicalization among local youth and not the main cause (Khan, 2011).

Chugtai (2013) referred to different aspects of tribal areas where poverty ratio is very high and also considered it the most marginalized area of Pakistan and has remained neglected by successive governments. Due to poor socioeconomics and lacked social amenities activities like health, education etc the area has become a breeding ground for terrorism (Chugtai, 2013). He claims that the recent terrorism is not the function of rigid culture and highly conservative traditions but is mainly due to its geographical location between Pakistan and Afghanistan (Chugtai, 2013). The great game in the region kept the area isolated and neglected in political terms thus pushing the tribal communities at mercy of warlords. He observes that the locals are governed through old FCR which has always benefited the local leaders (blue eyed) Maliks (Chugtai, 2013).

Azam (2009) in his work has highlighted that since creation of Pakistan FATA had never been treated like other parts of the country. He believes that the FCR, poverty, illiteracy and bad governance kept the tribal people away from the fruits of modernization (Azam, 2009). The local Maliks and warlords exploited this situation. The author claims that illiteracy and ignorance of civil as well as legal rights including rights of existence, freedom, protection, self-respect, assets and liberty of thought, movement, manifestation and relationship place tribal people at the mercy of extremist groups for the recruitment as an insurgents (Azam, 2009). These environments created extremism and militancy which have destroyed tribal society. He observes that majority of the local population want change which can be brought forth by those having power to take positive steps towards the socioeconomic uplift of the area.

Tariq Khan (2013) in his article has mentioned that the issue of violence has expanded its roots in Pakistani culture due to numerous causes. The major causes of extremism in North Waziristan are the nonexistence of commercial opportunities, uneven access to opportunities for social and economic utilization, bribery, faulty education system, poverty, joblessness, illiteracy, easy access to firearms, bad governance, instable geopolitical situation, side lining of the rural areas and lack of justice (Khan, 2013).

Post Crisis Need Assessment of KP and FATA (2011) has reported that violence and militancy are due to the reasons of poverty, unemployment, bad governance, low human development, poor infrastructure, acute shortage of basic services, economic backwardness. The report claims that the terrorist outfits pay high salaries ranging from 15 to 20 thousands per month to local youth and are controlling the smuggling of drugs and arms (PCNA., 2011). The pro militants are main beneficiary of this business with

49 opponent groups as the obvious loser in this game thus increasing unemployment in the area. The report also claims that due to militancy the government is facing problem in creating employment opportunities to increase lawful livelihood environment (PCNA., 2011). The report (2011) suggests that attention must be given to local youth, women and job creation opportunities to achieving long lasting peace.

Sandhu (2013) in his thesis mentions that majority of tribal youth is illiterate, have low access to justice, no employment opportunities, and low income and therefore are prone to join ranks of the militants. He argues that the FCR based colonial system of political administration has caused marginalization in the agency that led to poor governance culminating in terrorism born conflict (Sandhu, 2013). He finds that those who challenged the writ of the state through terrorism also include socially deprived individuals with no access to fundamental facilities like health, education and employment. He claims that there were many who joined terrorist organizations due to lack of education and others for ideological deprivations. The author further argued that the poor system of governance had also contributed to the emergence of terrorism led conflict in the area under research (Sandhu, 2013).

Michael (2007) has argued that poor socioeconomic conditions have developed the sense of deprivation among local residents. This sense of dispossession thus pushed the local youth into the arm of militancy by joining different terrorist organizations to manage their livelihood (Michael, 2007). The author claims that the government has not initiated any development project to bring about positive social change in the society. The militants have been regularly targeting the existing educational facilities because they contemplate these facilities as the promoters of western culture (Michael, 2007). Lack of regular education and unchecked madrassa education supervised by radical elements of the community are responsible for not only promoting criminal activities but also suicide bombings (Michael, 2007).

Khan (2014) writes that madrassas have turned into the homes for poor and the deserted children. He notes that in the absence of requisite formal education facilities, the local madrassa have been attracting the children from poor families due to free education, boarding and lodging facilities (Khan, 2014). These madrassas out of which mostly established during the Afghan jihad have been drawing Talibs (students). The author while commenting on the role of madrassas says that since 1980s, the Taliban leadership has 50 graduated from these madrassas and therefore the world‘s perception about their role as promoters of terrorism is difficult to dismiss (Khan, 2014).

Khan (2008) in his work claims that the tribal region has remained neglected by the Federal Government resulting into poverty with high illiteracy. He says that sixty percent of the local population lives below poverty line (Khan., 2008). He claims that lack of socioeconomic development has pushed the locals to adopt smuggling of weapons and narcotics to earn their livings. However, after 9/11, he believes the locals joined different militant outfits for their livelihood (Khan, 2008).

According to Bergen and Tiedemann (2013) the armed struggles in FATA can be identified as transnational magnitudes that have introduced smuggling, terrorism, militancy and drugs culture badly affecting not only Pakhtunkhwa but across the country. The network of these extremists and terrorists in tribal region of Pakistan should be broken as it is disturbing not only FATA but other parts of the country as well (Bergen and Tiedemann, 2013). To address this sensitive issue there is need to launch wide ranging social, economic, legal and democratic changes. In this study the term civic services has been operationalized as lack of formal education, lack of employment opportunities, absence of concerted development efforts, lack of water and sanitations schemes, absence of technical skills, non-existent of advance health and banking facilities. 2.3.3 Poor Governance

Different historians have discussed the system of governance in the tribal region in the aftermath of military expeditions sent to these areas from 1897 to 1898. Even after series of military operations there was no stopping of criminal activities in the tribal region which led to adoption of closed border policy and establishment of new agencies including North Waziristan under newly proposed tribal administrative law (FCR) of 1901 (Rakists, 2008). According to the provisions of this law, the tribes were allowed a degree of freedom to live by their tribal traditions while accepting the establishment of military cantonments and check posts in their land. Political administration system in the agency is based on the colonial mindset (Rakists, 2008). He argues that the problems of terrorism and militancy has no relationship with the external interferences but is linked to the deep- rooted problem of poor governance (Rakists, 2008).

The tribal region has a unique system of governance which is not being practiced in any other part of the country. The system is a mix of formal State laws and informal

51 local codes based on tribal traditions and values commonly known as the Pashtunwali. Traditional tribal institutions of Jirga, Hujra and Lashkar etc. run through these tribal codes. Truth, hospitality, cooperation, appeals for forgiveness and revenge are the basic tenets of Pakhtunwali. These codes according to few have not been adjusted properly with the passage of time, whereas others believe that these codes have been rendered obsolete by regional non-state actors (Fayyaz, 2012). They established their own rules and regulations for which there might be numerous explanations. Firstly, these cultural codes and the institutions might have not been tuned correctly in relation to the passage of time and therefore have been replaced by the non-state actors. The incorrect adjustments, false intentions and creation of local codes and institutions can be best understood by division of Jirga into Hakumati Jirga (Political Administrations sponsored council of Maliks) and Qaumi Jarga (locally made council of elders). The tribal people are not ready to make compromises on ending their cultural codes. The elimination of these tribal codes and the institutions can be properly understood with the statistics about target killings of over 500 tribal Maliks including local Lashkar leaders. The validity of Jirga decisions is rarely questioned as tribal people uses and abides by the verdicts passed by Jirgas (Ali, 2003).

The centuries old system of governance in the tribal belt has failed to provide justice, civil and human rights and the local communities are paying the cost of international conspiracies. Terrorist groups from different parts of the globe have established their safe heavens in the area to carry out terrorist activities from this soil (Tahir, 2009). They have challenged the writ of the state and established their own parallel system of governance (Tahir, 2009).

Human Rights Commission Report of Pakistan (2005) describes the effectiveness of Frontier Crimes Regulations -1901 that lays out the system of governance and administrative structure in FATA. After independence in 1947, the Pakistan inherited FCR based system that is being practiced without any amendment till today. It is generally believed that certain clauses of FCR made it easier for militants to turn FATA into a hub for their activities. The fault lies with the clauses of FCR that do not protect fundamental human needs, dignity and social justice (HRCP, 2005). FCR is regarded as draconian law with provisions that disregard and deny even most fundamental rights to the local communities (HRCP, 2005). These constitutional rights state that citizens must be allowed access to due legal procedure and also must be protected from torturous captivity that

52 violates self-respect; and all citizens must be granted equal citizenship rights as required by the law; clauses 9, 10, 14, 24 and 25 of the FCR (HRCP, 2005). They also observe that due to difference of opinion regarding extent and nature of reforms, no step has been taken yet to establish an effective politico-administrative system in the area.

According to the Asia Report (2006), terrorism born conflict in the tribal region is challenging threat for national and the international peace alike. The report blamed General Musharraf‘s government for failing to carry out military operations against terrorists hiding in the tribal areas. The report (2006) claims that this policy stimulated unrest and lawlessness in FATA, permitting militants to form a parallel Taliban style government and spread their influence into other parts of the country. The report (2006) further advocates that the counter insurgency strategy requires sincere steps towards normalcy by introducing democratic reforms and socioeconomic developments. The report (2006) claims that the government is not interested in socioeconomic transformation and restructuring of institutions and instead always used the excuse of tribe‘s respect for independence and their cultural values to maintain status quo. There is no explanation of holding FCR where civil and political rights are not honored.

Aziz (2008) claims that the tribal belt is difficult to govern as all economic and political activities are out of the governmental control and the topography helps them. He writes that the black economy in the shape of Hawala system (illegal transaction of money), smuggling of different articles is facilitated through Afghan transit trade (Aziz, 2008). He has suggested that to foster peace and stability in the region, local population should be involved in government jobs. He also advocates that the non-local officers should be replaced with the locals because they lack awareness about tribal code and the ground realities of this area (Aziz, 2008).

Rashid (2008) writes that almost for last three decades the tribal areas and Pakistan are facing war like situations which have directly or indirectly received repercussion from these events. The area is confronting multidimensional problems like law and order situation, insurgency, poverty, unemployment, civil and legal rights. Now it is the right time to decide and bring about changes in the area ignored since 1947 (Rashid, 2008). He writes that collective wisdom is required for development of peace and stability in the area. The problem is to involve all the stake holders who are the main players to make consensus for the sake of peace in the tribal belt which will help for socioeconomic uplift

53 of the area (Rashid, 2008). He believes that if decision is not welcomed and positively implemented by locals it will have negative effects for the entire region.

Wazir (2012) in his work states that ever since the colonial era, the tribal region is being governed under FCR. He observes that under this law, the rights including human rights, political rights and legal rights are not similar as in the other areas of the Pakistan. He claims that since its implementation, FCR has remained a problem for the local communities. He argues that due to indifferent attitude of the State, the area has remained undeveloped because of the outdated systems and laws of the colonial periods.

Mathew (2005) in his work writes that the system of administration is a gift of colonial mindset. He claims that the problems in FATA are not related to the foreign interference but is related to the governance (Mathew, 2005). Socioeconomics of the residents of FATA has significantly changed due to remittances from Middle East due to war in Afghanistan (Mathew, 2005). He also claims that the presence of a political vacuum is responsible for extremists to exploit the situation (Mathew, 2005).

In this study the term poor governance has been operationalized in the context of outdated traditional politico-administrative system, continuous socio-economic neglect, absence of effective border control and poor politico-administrative system, 2.3.4 Social Restoration

The definitions of social change and restoration are extremely varied due to its application to social phenomenon which is a process with varied dimensions that unfold at varying levels of generalization. The phenomenon of social change and restoration studies the transformations in cultural, demographic, environmental or the structural character of any social system. It also studies the evolution of the social system from one to another form (Greenfield, 2009). According to Moor (1963) the social changes are the important changes in social structures to include social action patterns and interactions. Moor in his definition of the social change has integrated many forms of structure expressions including cultural phenomenon, norms and values (Moore, 1963). Gheorghe Fulga (2003) in his definition of social change argues that it refers to eternal alterations of the elements of social behavior, social structures and culture (Fulga, 2003).

According to conventional Marxist theory, the emblematic of conflict perception, the social changes transpire through conflicts that are full of socioeconomic uncertainties.

Marx with economic point of view identifies the relationship social turmoil bears with the means of production while exploring the absurdity between forces and production relations. He differentiates several stages of economic evolution: the stage of the closed family economy; the stage of urban economy; the stage of national economy (Totterdill and Judith, 2014). Socioeconomic restructuring and modernization is often associated with social changes especially gender balance in employment. The modernization of societies initiates two conflicting processes; the need for specialization of human resources and the need for cooperation to manufacture competitively. It is possible to restore cohesion by re- institutionalizing the spirit of concord through national and international institutions.

The phenomenon of socioeconomic development is directly linked to the process of social change which means making the life of masses better. During the present day social environments, the meaning of better life for majority of the human beings is to meet the basic needs like sufficient and healthy food, a secure housing place and dignified social treatment. In-addition to discussed social needs, the meaning of development varies for different societies basing on their cultural perspectives. The development objectives and the implementation strategies are linked to the popular and democratic perceptions. There are certain societies that consider the social change as a most wanted goal but still few do not agree with the notion. However those considering the social change as their intended goal for better life still broadly disagree on the modes of positive social change leading to development.

The development may assist in achieving various sociopolitical objectives including conflict with essentially democratic norm that means ‗a better life for all’. The degree of development is measured by the living standards that apart from counting the personal possessions also include the public services enjoyed. The standards of living comprise of numerous components like health, education, water and sanitations systems, the agricultural and the industrial productions , the transport and housing amenities and many more (Naqvi, Khan, and Zainab, 2012). The development is essentially a multidimensional phenomenon that is incessant in nature wherein the participation of local actors is a prelude to control violence and to carryout necessary socioeconomic change.

Thence to address the root causes of conflict which existed in the North Waziristan, there is a dire need to institute an all-inclusive rehabilitation strategy in the environments created after successful security operations. The rehabilitation strategy must cover important facets of psychosocial development including resettlement of displaced

55 communities, economic recovery and political reforms. This study research while considering peculiar tribal values will offer desired policy options for post conflict initiatives to mainstream the conflict ridden agency. 2.3.5 Rehabilitation and Economic Recovery

Healthy and educated youth plays an important and positive role in the development of a nation. Majority of the FATA residents are young who have remained isolated from fruit of development. World Bank (2008) reports that thousands of locals got displaced due to terrorism born conflict with most of them suffered human losses and injuries due to militant activities. The killing of pro-government Maliks and destruction of educational infrastructure left the students with healthy commitment and therefore they joined insurgents for to earn livelihood. These environments of conflict experienced in North Waziristan during last decade thus multiplied the existing illiteracy and poverty (Bank, 2008). Therefore it is recommended that FATA should be treated like other parts of the Pakistan. The World Bank report suggests that development projects like exploration of mineral resources, industrialization and basic infrastructure will minimize the extent of unemployment and ultimately militancy (Bank, 2008).

Armed struggles in tribal areas as transnational magnitudes have introduced smuggling, terrorism, militancy and drug culture that have badly affected not only Pakhtunkhwa but also the whole country. To address these problems there is need to initiate wide ranging social, economic, legal and democratic changes (Marie, 2011). The socioeconomic development can be achieved by mainstreaming FATA by extending democracy and introducing systems of local governments.

Although Lucas (2012) in his scholarly work ‗Waziristan to Tibet‘ has mostly focused on the aspects related to military campaigns in the tribal areas, however he had also discussed the British policy of dealing the local population. The author cites Brandeners‘ who believed that root cause of the conflict was lack of development resolve by the government of British India (Lucas, 2012). Brandener said that ―we seem to have hoped that civilization would simply rub off by contact with us. But it hasn‘t happened‖ (Lucas, 2012). The writer also shares the Brandener‘ views who believed that only concrete socioeconomic development initiatives will effectively arrest the culture of militancy (Lucas, 2012). The author also narrates Arthur who commented that ―In the long run, the only way forward is to civilize the beggars to the point where all this is a thing of

56 past‖ (Lucas, 2012). Although author did identify reasons of volatile situation in the agency but did not suggest any development strategy, thus enabling the researcher to explore different options for socioeconomic development of the agency.

The relationship between socioeconomic wellbeing and the development supports the notion that substantial development activities should be carried out for improving local socioeconomic conditions which will bring peace and social stability in the area. It is however important that during the process of development the opportunities for positive exploration of the local socioeconomic potentials should not be slipped away in the post conflict environments. The policy research paper developed under the World Bank has termed the conflict as opposite to the development thereby meaning that conflict is ‗development in reverse‘ (Chen and Renayl, 2010). The report also claims that the countries become safe after successful development, and in case development failures the countries face the bigger risks of ‗being caught in a conflict trap‘ (Chen and Renayl, 2010). This principle of ‗development in reverse‘ fully applies to the North Waziristan where conflict has further worsened the socioeconomic conditions of the locals. Huge budgetary allocations are being made without outlining comprehensive policy options and correct identification of socioeconomic development sectors. Therefore different initiatives in hand have failed to produce any tangible improvement in the socioeconomic indicators of the agency. Marx argues that the development and conflict are mutually dependent phenomenon, in other words the conflict is inherent to the process of development. Collier (2003) refers the conflict as the motor that drives development forward and resources are redistributed to different classes and people. The failure of development efforts in providing the essential retaining structure results in poverty, which can provide the essential framework for renewal of violence (Collier, 2003). Therefore to foster social stability and make the rehabilitation sustainable the rebuilding of the social capital coupled with the livelihood opportunities and the capacity for economic growth should be enhanced.

The employment of youth is most important factor for any successful rehabilitation strategy in post conflict environments. The above discussion entails drafting a comprehensive socioeconomic development and politico-administrative reformation strategy that should serve as retaining mechanism to take the agency out of recently experienced turmoil. In this regard, the government has instituted FATA Development Authority (FDA) that has been assigned the task to undertake rehabilitation measures in

57 post conflict environments with the objective to achieve socioeconomic stability and lasting peace. The desired objectives however may be oblivious without consulting local stakeholders during the planning and execution of planned initiatives (Khan, 2014). In post conflict settings, the reconstruction and rehabilitation phase which largely depends on local community and not the security or other law enforcing agencies can be launched immediately after or even during the culmination stages of the security operations.

The rehabilitation by developing stakes of local community will transform the militancy into socioeconomic competitiveness. Frederick (2007) in his study under Silk Road Program ―The Key to Success in Afghanistan; A Modern Silk Road Strategy‖ has highlighted the significance of socioeconomic incentives viz-a-viz terrorism. The study while mentioning the importance of economic activities claims that, ―Yet the continuing flow of Pakistani trucks ferrying NATO supplies from Karachi to Afghanistan through the epicenter of the Pashtun insurgency is proof that commercial activity can flourish amid instability. Any gains that militants would make from disrupting these vital supply lines, are strategically outweighed by the fact that local tribes derive significant income from the traffic. As long as such incentive structures hold, local populations have shown themselves ready to prioritize commerce over political violence‖ (Frederick, 2007). They have found that despite terrorism and the poor law and order situation the trade activities taking place through this area have not been affected which reflect socioeconomic stakes of the local community.

The socioeconomic growth will bring sociopolitical stability and will minimize the existing social space to the terrorist organizations. Though geostrategic settings largely affect any sociopolitical change in any area, yet the strategic significance alone out- weights the discussed. The socioeconomic development programs in the form of development of communication infrastructure in the agency have provided necessary stimulating pulse for subsequent development. However in order to achieve the desired objectives of socioeconomic transformation, these initiatives should focus on multiple areas. The most relevant observation made by Bruce (1938) reads that ―In Waziristan, if we stand content with roads and fail to develop the country and its resources for the benefit of the tribes, we shall be failing in our mission‖. The development activities are therefore positive conclusions of sociopolitical conflicts to generate socioeconomic activities to induce requisite social stability. In other words, the conflicts eventually lead to social stability and integration of social system (Strasser, 1981).

2.4 Research Gap

The research has been carried out to explore different policy options for post conflict rehabilitation activities in the North Waziristan. Although a voluminous literature is available on terrorism related subjects including the nature, psychology and sociology of terrorism, however very limited literature is available on rehabilitation of the conflict ridden North Waziristan agency in the post conflict environments. The primary reason for this scarcity of relevant literature is the inaccessibility and the terrorism born conflict conditions that have persisted until very recently in the agency. Highly conservative and traditionalist nature of the Waziristan society is yet another important factor that might be responsible for this absence of scholarly work related to the rehabilitation dimension. The detailed review of existing literature has concluded that FCR, socioeconomic deprivation of the tribal area, system of governance and regional geostrategic settings have always been few of the major challenges to mainstream the area under study. Through this research an endeavour has been made to sufficiently bridge the existing research gap by studying the socioeconomic conditions of the agency before suggesting a viable rehabilitation framework including different policy options for socioeconomic and political restoration in post conflict environments of the North Waziristan.

2.5 Chapter Summary

This chapter gives detailed historical perspective of the North Waziristan agency. It also offers an in-depth review of the existing literature to study causes and circumstances that led to terrorism driven state of conflict. Apart from reviewing the literature related to tribal culture and socioeconomics of the area, the chapter covers scholarly works covering the important dimension of governance. Later on this chapter reviews the literature covering social change and development followed by literature on rehabilitation and reconstruction. Towards the end this chapter has also identified the research gap to serve as foundation for the research.

CHAPTER 3

CONCEPTS AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This chapter provides conceptual and analytical frameworks under the overall ambit of theoretical research framework. The conceptual framework aims at to explain different concepts including Pakhtunwali, Terrorism, Conflict and Rehabilitation for better understanding of the general readers. The theoretical framework presents an introduction to the Theory of Social Engineering and Systems Thinking Approach leading to conceptualize the policy options for post conflict rehabilitation. 3.1 The Concepts

3.1.1 Tribal Culture

The cultural structure of the Waziri society is primarily defined by a set of customs, conventions and above all a code of honour called "Pakhtunwali". This code ―Pakhtunwali‖ serves as the bedrock for the arch of Pakhtun social structure. This social code has greatly influenced their actions throughout the recorded history and has always been held sacred by the Pakhtun generations. Pakhtunwali rules the life of a Pakhtun from his cradle to grave encompassing all sociopolitical and even to some extent religious affairs. In the Pakhtun culture the adherence to the Pakhtunwali is non-negotiable and non-observance of the code of Pakhtunwali is regarded as disgraceful. The violator himself or even along with his family members may face expulsion from the tribe. The Pakhtunwali stems from the tribal principles of eccentricity, social equality, nobility, hospitality and the grant of asylum (Taj, 2011) . The concept of Pakhtunwali is epitomized by six chief obligations out of which four help in ending the hostilities whereas last two may breed fresh hostilities.

The first element of Pakhtunwali ‗Jirgah’ or the council of elders is a key instrument to end hostilities and settle tribal disputes. Jirgah is generally comprised of elderly or greybeards of the tribal community having immense knowledge of the local sociocultural traditions. The council of elders arbitrates the tribal disputes between opposing parties to conclude an acceptable solution through lengthy deliberations. When decisions have been reached unanimously then these become bindings and are implemented firmly (Ali, 2010).

The ―Nanawatey and Panah‖ (entering the house)‖ or repentance over the past enmity or hostile behaviour and granting of asylum are key cultural trait of the Wazir society. The individuals with all the talks of honour or self-esteem do not hesitate to visit his enemy‘s Hujra or the house to seek forgiveness. When wrong has been done to someone, the offender along with the village elders visits the aggrieved family. The accused as a symbol of reparation and gratitude slaughters a lamb at the door of the aggrieved family. The apology rendered by the accused is willingly accepted; with honour and dignity. The Teega or stone planting means cease fire to end hostility in order to evade bloodshed between opposing tribes. The tribes make war but always adhere to the rules of the game as well. In this social custom a stone demarcating the boundary between two groups is planted in the ground. The groups either with mutual assent or through intervention by tribal Jirgah make truce for a particular span of time. The provisions of treaty are honoured firmly by opposing parties (Ali, 2010). The Melmastya or hospitality is one of the most sublime and noble features of the Pakhtun culture. They feel pride in providing food, extending protection and offering abode to their guests as long as the guest desires. In Melmastya which is closely linked to the Panah as well, the safety and security of the guest is also the host‘s responsibility.

The facet of Badal (revenge) in the Pakhtun culture largely contributes to the hostility. In order to be called a true Pakhtun, the aggrieved must take revenge. According to Pakhtun proverb; Badal is not delayed if taken even after 100 years. All those who in accordance with the demand of Pakhtunwali fail or are not willing to take revenge lose their respect and honour among the community. In fact, those who fail to take revenge make themselves prone to Paighor, which means taunting (Spain, 1962). However, the Nanawaty as already explained can avoid the Badal. The Nang; which according to Pakhtunwali means courage, valour and honour for a Pakhtun, is yet another important element of Pakhtun culture. The Nang while leading to agnatic enmity among first cousins also demands from a person to abide by other principles of Pakhtunwali like Jirgah, Panah, Teega, Nanawaty and Melmastya.

The declaring of the Nang (honour) and Badal (revenge) as the fundamentals of Pakhtunwali by few of the writers has greatly harmed both to the very notion of Pakhtunwali and to the overall Pakhtun image. For instance, while discussing the nature and culture of Pakhtun tribes one appears to be obsessed with the facet of Nang. The British when confronted with the Tsarist Russia pioneered the approach adopted by few

62 writers (Ahmad, 1976). In-fact the British imperialist power used this jargon in order to cover up her administrative inability to manage this difficult region. Therefore in words of Caroe (1958), the British government could do nothing but to plead to the weird and embellished bravery of local tribes.

Cultural inquiry of Waziristan tribes particularly Wazirs demonstrates that they unlike other Pakhtun tribes of the region are embedded into a distinctive culture ‗Da Waziro Narkh (Customs traditional to Wazirs)‘. Wazirs firmly observe ostracism by exile in order to secure the safety of tribe and autonomous status that stems from the sense of freedom. The tribes fervently and impatiently protect their ‗freedom and independence‘ under their cultural code of Pakhtunwali.

In the culture of Waziristan tribes, the essence of freedom and independence stems out from individual to clan further extending from clan to Wazir tribe and then subsequently to the tribes of FATA. In the Waziri culture ‗har saray khan dey‘ (every man is king) they instead of living a disrespectful life will prefer to die. In this self-regulating Waziri society everybody is welcomed, granted sanctuary and extended protection with the preconditions of showing reverence for local culture and tribal liberty. In Waziristan under the code of Pakhtunwali refuge or sanctuary is granted to all regardless of their cast, religion and social status after sociopolitical surrender to the Pakhtunwali. On the other hand if local values and tribal authority are not accepted then ‗Badal‘ or revenge comes into play to seek total acquiescence to Waziri culture. Hence the Badal as an instrument of vengeance remains the chief facet running in the blood of every tribesman and comes into play against all offenders who are aiming to seize or destroy local freedom or deceit against given asylum. Revenge is a chivalric code and if not taken immediately is passed on to next generations but never abandoned. Since Badal is sprinkled by Sharia (Islamic Belief) therefore practicing of Pakhtunwali is considered as advocating the Sharia law which does not allow them to diverge from local cultural norms (Haq and Khalid, 2011).

The firm adherence to the local culture and norms, the Pan Islamic stand, buoyancy to the external forces, the Pakhtunwali with its element of Badal and centuries old free will warped the local tribes to embrace ‗Shahadat‘ (death) and no second option to safeguard their cultural and unofficial supremacy over the Waziristan land. According to this popular belief, they have never been tamed, disarmed or administered through a steamroller by any invading empire. These tribes have never been recorded as the leading attackers in the pursuit of territorial gains or against any faith, however they have always

63 successfully protected their territorial boundary against all external aggressions or inflicting of the disrespect.

3.1.2 Talibanization

The term Talibanization refers to the political and social process following or imitating the political system, religious laws and life style of Taliban out of Pakistan. In the international media, it mainly describes the political and social development in Pakistan, especially, in the northwestern tribal areas. This process used to be called Taliban Syndrome‖ Burki (2010;3). The element of terrorism started emerging after the Napoleon's defeat at the battle of Waterloo followed by restoration of royalist regime under the new conditions basing on the Vienna Agreements in 1814-1815. During the revolutions of 19th and 20th century, new forms of terrorism surfaced during colonial regimes and civil wars. However in 21st century the terrorism has turned out as most important cause inducing real threat to overall territorial security of the states, the inhabitants, the democratic systems and the growth of human civilization. Despite availability of huge literature on the subject, comprehensive definition of terrorism has yet not been reached with consensus. There are two major reasons for this disagreement; firstly the modern media‘s efforts to communicate complex messages in briefest manner or print space thus labeling various acts of violence as ―Terrorism‖. Secondly the opposing political interests have also made the task of reaching at agreed definition terrorism quite difficult, therefore terrorist of one state may be the freedom fighter for other one (Hoffman, 2009).

The terrorism turned into a nightmare after the emergence of phenomenon of Talibans after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. First public action of Talibans was seen in Kandahar when a warlord abducted two girls to serve his men. The incident followed by chivalric action by few young Pashtuns who stormed the warlord base and rescued the abducted girls while hanging the warlord with turret of tank. The origin of Talibans rests in the Pak-Afghan border areas where millions of the Afghan pashtuns sought refuge during their decade long struggle against the occupation forces of former Soviet Union. Whole of the generation including boys had grown up in the refugee camps established mainly in the tribal region especially in Waziristan areas. The refugee camps organized by the Pakistan were covertly funded by United States and openly by Kingdom of Saudi Arabian. Owing to their origin from madrassas established along Pak-Afghan border these young fighters were labeled as Talibans. Following the Soviet defeat and 64 withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, Talibans kept on operating from the camps along Pakistan border as a ferocious civil war fumed in Afghanistan. The Talibans developed their reputation during the subsequent years which gave them right of entry to Kabul in 1999 thus declaring the country "Islamic Caliphate of Afghanistan‖. Meanwhile drawing upon the public annoyance against United States, Taliban like groups emerged in Pakistan with their support base in organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami, Hizb-ul-Mujahedeen and Lashkar-e-Jhangwi etc who pledge for the ideology of global jihad.

In the aftermath of fateful incident of 11 September 2011, the tribal areas of Pakistan again emerged into global spotlight when United States declared the War against Terrorism by launching ‗Operation Enduring Freedom‘ against then Afghan regime during 2002. The coalition forces destroyed the Taliban regime within few weeks of the start of military operation thus forcing the Afghan Taliban and foreign fighters including Arabs, Chechens, Uzbeks to withdraw in Pak-Afghan border areas (Gull, 2009). The bordering tribal areas offered an ideal natural, societal, and political settings to the infiltrating terrorists. All of the tribal agencies especially North and South Waziristan due to peculiar geography with rugged terrain made the task of guerrilla warfare easier. The receptive tribal population having history full of tribal wars with traditional honour and hospitality provided conducive environments for Talibanization of the society.

In March 2004, the soldiers of frontiers corps while during search for Tahir Yuldashiv in Kaloo Shah near Wanna found themselves under siege by hundreds of Uzbek terrorists and local Waziri tribesmen who retaliated the search operation. The incident broke an all-out fighting between the parties during which around 200 frontier corps soldiers were martyred (Gull, 2009). The incident rang alarm bells in the policy making corridors of Pakistan to get them out of the state of denial.

After the Kaloo Shah incident, the local militant Nek Muhammad, an Ahmedzai Wazir emerged as militant commander who confronted the Pakistani security forces fearlessly. Later in 2004 at Shakai an agreement was reached between the security forces and militant commander Nek Muhammad thus legitimizing his leadership (Fair, 2011). The same year Nek Muhammad was killed by United States in a drone strike thus replacing him with more composed and recognized militant commander named Baitullah Mehsud. During the year 2007, the terrorism in the Waziristan agency got renewed after military operation against the militants of Lal Masjid. Terrorists after playing havoc in the tribal agencies started targeting the urban centers including Lahore, Islamabad and more

65 specifically Peshawar which had always remained on terrorist‘s hit list. Meanwhile the terrorist groups organized themselves into a unifying force and joined hands under the banner of "Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)‖. It was Baitullah Mehsud; hailing from South Waziristan, who unified the terrorist groups from across the entire tribal region to established TTP under his leadership. The newly established organization was supported by local terrorist outfits to include Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, the Harkat-ul-Mujahedeen Al-Alami, the Jundullah and the Sipah-e-Muhammad. These groups were mostly functioning on sectarian or ethnic grounds. By the end of year 2007, the Talibans had nearly swallowed up the entire tribal region from Bajaur to South Waziristan. The new structure of TTP only enhanced the Talibans capacity to engage the country‘s security forces in more deadly manner. The militant commander Baitullah Mehsud headed the TTP from 2007 to 2009 till he was killed in a drone attack by United States.

After the death of Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud was selected as Ameer along with forty member consultative body ―Shura” in order to coordinate the terrorist activities. The newly placed arrangement also included about twenty four deputy commanders to carry out the acts of terrorism in their respective areas. The deputies included Maulvi Faqir Muhammad who monitored the terrorist acts in Bajaur with Umar Khalid (Abdul Wali) doing the same in Mohmand. Whereas Maulvi Fazlullah was assigned the responsibility of Swat chapter till he fled the Swat after successful military operation in 2009. The military operation Rah-e-Nijaat pushed the Talibans out of their strong holds from South Waziristan forcing them to flee across Afghan border and into the North Waziristan where local tribes had been maintaining peace treaty with the government.

The terrorist organization suffered a major setback in 2014 when Hakim Ullah Mehsud was killed in a drone attack in North Waziristan. The subsequent change of leadership was managed by the deputy commander from Swat; Mullah Fazal Ullah who was hiding in Afghanistan. Under his leadership, the TTP unleashed barbaric wave of terrorism across the country including massacre of innocent children at Peshawar Army Public School and lethal attacks on Karachi airport. The events virtually developed the much needed national consensus to launch full scale military operation in the North Waziristan; the strong hold of militants including foreign terrorists. The country‘s armed forces started comprehensive military operation code named Zarb-e-Azb against the

66 terrorists hiding across the North Waziristan agency. The security forces after lot of sacrifices successfully evicted the terrorists from their hideouts in the agency and established the writ of the state in 2015. During the military operations, locals were temporarily displaced to TDP camps established within or at the agency boundary. However during 2016, the security forces quickly created conducive environments for safe return of displaced families and their socioeconomic rehabilitation in the post conflict environments of the agency (Bajwa, 2013).

Imtiaz Gul (2009) in his work notes that the leadership and the ranks and files of the terrorists come from a humble economic background with little or no educational background. He argues that the phenomenon of Talibanization in the tribal areas of Pakistan is quite unique. Hence it can be concluded that the early child rearing circumstance or the cultural traits bear no direct linkage with the Talibanization (Gul, 2009). He writes that the Talibans or terrorist organizations might have been using the traditional values to promote their goals but have also been destroying the other facets of the Pakhtunwali. Therefore it might be inappropriate to term the Talibans as product of Pakhtun culture rather the correct attribute might be a counter culture force (Gul, 2009). The author argues that ―I do not believe that extremism and terrorism are part of our DNA. When I look back down the years, I believe the turning point was in the mid-1970s when the then civilian government of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto decided to recruit dissident Afghans as assets to deploy against a new government in Kabul that was leaning alarmingly towards the godless Soviet Union. It was then that Pakistan‘s semi-autonomous tribal areas bordering Afghanistan became the springboard and the training ground for the Afghan dissidents‖ (Gul, 2009).

3.1.3 Conflict

The conflict has been defined as a struggle or ontest between people with opposing needs, ideas, beliefs, values and goals (Diez & Pia, 2007). The word Conflict is derived from the Latin word which means ‗to clash or engage in a fight‘. In other words the conflict is a clash between different groups or parties who are aspiring to achieve incompatible goals. The conflict either may be manifest, recognizable through competing or incompatible behaviours or latent; the case in which conflict remains inactive for certain time period as incongruities are unarticulated or built into the system. The conflict might exist at class level, local government levels, at state or international levels. Conflicts crop up when certain or more groups do not concede to a specific situation; the groups 67 might be individuals or within the states. In international relations three general forms of conflict; including interstate, internal, and state formation conflicts have been identified by Peter Wallen Steen (2010). The first type of conflict; the interstate are the disputes among nation states or the violation of state alliances. The intensity and the increased frequency of the internal conflicts with direct contribution towards the expansion and legitimization of interventionist policies have turned the international community more concerned. The civil and ethnic wars, anti-colonial resistance, secessionist and independence movements, territorial conflicts and the fights for government control are included in the internal and the state formation conflicts. However due to existing security environments prevailing around the globe, the focus has primarily been shifted towards the global conflicts in which the non-state actors battle with the regional as well as international organizations (Steen, 2010).

There is no precise definition of the terminologies like armed or violent conflicts and ethnic or political violence. In the absence of specific definition, the use of these terms is generally indiscriminate to one‘s convenience and to support one‘s view point. However there is commonality of effect in terms of communal disruption or collapse at varying levels including social, political and economic. Mostly during all out armed conflicts, the violence observes is at varying intensity levels. A comprehensive defeat of the militant or armed groups, or the observance of formal peace agreement or the cease indicates the termination of the armed conflict. The humanitarian disasters those often follow the long and protracted armed conflicts result in indiscriminate killings, the ills like ethnic cleansing and mass displacements of the population turning them refugees or migrants.

Different scholars depending on their affiliation with the school of thought they come from; have offered varying explanations of the conflict. Marx explained the conflict in terms of social attributes of different social classes, particularly the conflicts between the ‗Haves and Have Not‘s in the capitalist societies. The scholars who followed the Marx have offered different explanations of the conflict theory. The theory has applied to give explanation of dissimilar human actions like educational practices that challenge the cultural values concerning elderly or criminal behaviour. The chief advocates of the structural conflict theory see the incompatibility of interests basing on competition for scarce resources as source of social conflicts.

Structural violence which is also called as indirect violence refers to the violence that harms masses by not allowing them to meet their basic needs. This impairment of the

68 basic human needs is avoidable and is precisely structural as the same is intrinsically institutionalized within the society (Galtung and FIscher, 2013). While discussing the behavioural or direct violence Galtung (2013) affirms interdependence of the both forms of the violence; that is structural as well as behavioural. Galtung (2013) believes that both forms of violence result from cultural violence. However the scholars from the realist school of thought trace back the conflict roots to human nature; considered as selfish and engaged in pursuit of personal interests commonly identified as power (Morgenthau, 1993). They believe that actors therefore must remain prepared to handle the consequences of conflicts since these are inevitable. This theory has generally been blamed for elevating the power and state to ideological levels thence had great impact on conflicts at global level. The innate conflict theory propagates that in all of the social interactions among mankind or the animals, the conflict is innate. It further argues that the humans are animal; albeit superior class of animals, and therefore would fight for possessions they cherish (Dollard, 1990)

The biological theorists argue that the variance in ‗expected need satisfaction‘ and the ―actual need satisfaction‖ (Davies, 1978) makes the people to confront those to whom they consider responsible to frustrate their ambitions. This argument is the central point of the theory proposed by the Ted Robert Gurr in his thesis of Relative Deprivation (Gurr, 1970). The physiologists believe in biological and hormonal origin of aggressive behaviors and conflicts among individuals, but they also discuss the circumstances under which this happens. Scott (1940) writes that physiological source of aggression is the function of numerous factors including environments and the human nature. He argues that the human beings are inherently capable to be aggressive but tend to hide violent behaviour as an instinct. He observes that whenever there is violence, there are the chances that the same is being exploited by one or the combination of factors including within or outside one‘s control. Another important type of conflict theory is ―psycho- cultural conflict theory‖ which theorizes the role of conflicts induced due to cultural dimensions. Psycho-cultural conflict theory argues that out of different forms of human identities, the one based on ethnicity and associated culture are the most vital to explain the violence. They believe that the identity is therefore the motive behind a social conflict which takes long time to settle despite the popular perception that the ethnicity is main cause of the identity driven conflicts. The scholars belonging to this school of thought

69 concur that in the presence of ethnic differences there is no reason to believe that the conflict is unavoidable.

Each point of view adds to the existing knowledge about different dimensions of the conflict. Although theses dimensions are analytically distinct as static points of departure, there is sufficient overlap among conflict orientations to blur their fine points of distinction (Kelen, 2012). The scholars dealing with the conflict can thus combine one or more than one perception while either analyzing the social conflicts or assisting the political leaders to develop right policies to deal with them.

World Bank along with the different international development agencies engaged in post conflict activities in various parts around the globe generally categorizes the conflict as one which has either very recently witnessed violence at large scale or where the state is facing an armed resistance from significant number of local population. If certain privileges of the commanding and subsidiary states, rulers and the insurgents are not addressed then the conflict can occur. John W. Burton (1997) says that the conflict can be described as relationship where opposing groups perceive the other‘s goal or values, and interests or behaviors as adversative to own. The conflict embraces firstly the linkage between groups to a clash, their sensitivity and misperceptions, their values both shared as well as separate and their objectives and inspiration, and secondly the social, economic as well as political and institutional setting in which disputes take place (Burton, 1997).

The succession of conflict is primarily divided into three phases namely the pre- conflict phase, the present phase, and the post-conflict phases (Galtung, 1969). The first phase; the pre-conflict phase is related to the classification of disputes in relationship to hostilities. During this phase of conflict, the intensity and abomination is experienced among the masses. The second phase of the conflict; present phase ascertains the radical behaviors with emergence of derived conflict under primary groups and even within the resultant groups present. This amply explains the reason why conflicts re-generate once they have been resolved in the absence of comprehensive strategy to deal with the matter at larger part. Before understanding the third phase of conflict; the post conflict phase it is imperative to know that direct violence has a connection with the conflictual behavior and hence lessening the behavior will put a full stop to the conflict. The cause of structural violence is the reason of state‘s shape or structure. The post conflict phase signifies the reduced conflictual behaviours and attitudes resulting into minimal incompatibilities and violent behaviours. Therefore if the conditions like injustice and structural contradictions

70 are changed or eliminated, then the structural violence can be arrested. Since the aggressive attitude spreads the cultural violence, therefore change of attitude can uproot the cultural violence. In other words the process of de-radicalization and social integration can contribute in arresting the conflict triggers. The third phase of Galtung conflict theory is considered to be the most appropriate phase where corrective measures and policies can be initiated to maximize the social, economic, political and institutional reformation effects (Galtung, 1969).

3.1.4 Rehabilitation

The hard work to define the abstract fundamentals of post conflict rehabilitation along with their practical connotations is primarily derivative of the analysis of transforming the international system, modifications of regulative sub-systems, as well as the analysis of conflict management or conflict resolution apparatus. The concept of post conflict rehabilitation, or the peace building or the nation building has yet not formally entered into the international law. The chief reason for the same might be that the post conflict rehabilitation activity or term has yet not been accurately defined and still has uncertain content. Different scholars from different academic disciplines have described the post conflict rehabilitation activities from their own perspective. The term rehabilitation is more expressive and whole encompassing in mapping the conflict dynamics and reflecting the landscape peculiarities of a conflict (Pantev, 2004). It not only senses but also offers all-encompassing way to determine the needs and the problems of management, the regulations and solution (Pantev, 2004). These form the fundamentals to outline a comprehensive picture of post conflict rehabilitation beliefs, logic and the details of activities already in practice and constantly studied.

The term rehabilitation is specifically defined and perceived by the present day policy makers as the all-inclusive studying the resettlement and reintegration of the population affected by the conflicts rather than considering only in terms of its conventional meaning (Pantev, 2004). The post conflict rehabilitation process is being considered as the most important peace building and the development subject at national, regional and the global levels. Lately the important aspects like social transformation, making the socioeconomic growth more conducive or establishing the institutions to settle and manage the conflicts are being discussed under rehabilitation. This wider application of the term is making the rehabilitation a mainstay for huge array of academic research and development practitioners alike. 71

Since middle of 1990s, focused efforts by the Cluster of Competence Rehabilitation on the project of war torn societies has significantly added theoretic as well as practical knowledge to the subject of rehabilitation. Within the contextual framework provided by this project, numerous research imitative have been undertaken to determine the character of modern conflicts and their prerequisites including the follow up of humanitarian interventions. Also the inquiries have been made to ascertain as to why special attention is required on the transition issues and integrating the relief programs with the conflict management and the contributions towards long term development (Pugh, 1998). The project also attracted the interests of the researchers in investigating diverse dimensions of rehabilitation. Firstly, the requirement of conditionality to support the process of recovery from wars including both civil and others is considered in the context of missing strategic uniformity in rehabilitation planning; a sign of lacked vision in handling the collapsing states or community regenerations. Secondly, the relief development concept as an evolution from overt war to a state of no hostility bears special connotation for humanitarian aspects of rehabilitation. Thirdly, in terms of societal transformation the rehabilitation concept offers special meanings for the participation and accountability framework as well as social engineering limitations.

The study carried out about Kosovo signifies that how complex is the post-conflict rehabilitation process especially in inspiring the population to start handling their own problems. The study also marks the required degree of realization about complexity of factors that emerged during the time and lead to the demand of putting into practice certain standards prior to fully mainstreaming the conflict area. Richard Stanley (2005) observes that the post conflict rehabilitation is an intimidating challenge since it too often fosters the seeds of next conflict. It is due to this reason that during post conflict scenarios; restoration of civil order and the administration is crucial to achieve total success in the conflict. The most significant aspect is to understand that a meaningful success is possible only after maintaining a long-term pledge to the rehabilitation activities (Richard, 2005).

A paradigm shift in the concept of rehabilitation occurred with the adoption of ‗Brahimi Report‘ (2004) that comprehensively defined the United Nations peace operations including conflict prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and the peace building operations. The stated principles of United Nations peace building operations are closely linked to the concept of rehabilitation as these include the social reintegration of the former combatants, strengthening rule of law, improving the conditions of human

72 rights, rendering much needed technical support for development activity and also promoting the reconciliation techniques and the conflict resolution (Brahimi, 2004). The concept of post conflict rehabilitation has enormous potential to prevent the conflicts but it requires timely application to yield tangible results. Various scholars and other sources have contributed considerably in order to clearly distinguish between the pre conflict, the conflict phase and the post conflict phase of the stabilization operations (William, 2003) to which the phenomenon of post conflict rehabilitation is logically linked. The studies of Balkans and elsewhere carried out in the project of Rehabilitation of war-torn societies offers firm ground to verify and test the lessons learnt during the post conflict experiences (Lehner and Fred, 2001).

A realistic level of peace and security is the absolute sine qua non for commencement of cultural, economic and political rehabilitation (Gennip, 2005). REDRESS Trust also offers a holistic definition of rehabilitation which reads, ―Rehabilitation encompasses all sets of processes and services and states should have in place to allow a victim of serious human rights violations to reconstruct his/her life plan or to reduce, as far as possible the harm that has been suffered…..States should be obliged to establish a rehabilitation system that incorporates at least physical and psychological services, and social, legal and financial services, which should be available to any person who might need them‘ (Trust, 2009).

The concept of relief, rehabilitation and development notion got connected in the 1980s to bring together different mindsets of the long term development organizations, relief and peace building NGOs (Anderson, 2001). Few scholars are of the view that ―relief, rehabilitation and development can all take place simultaneously within a state; emergency relief or post conflict rehabilitation in some regions and development in others. These three concepts are not generally recognized as separate but overlapping and complementary‖ (Rament, 2012). The rationale behind the conceptual and strategic linking of relief, rehabilitation and development is the belief that relief and rehabilitation programs can and should include development objectives (Rament, 2012). While taking a critical perspective of the rehabilitation concept considering and conceptualizing the rehabilitation as a program similar to one understood for the people hit by the natural disasters, they argue that in post conflict scenario the condition of the population requiring rehabilitation is totally different since protracted conflicts erode the social, political and the economic institutions (Rament, 2012). They further argue that the conflicts not only

73 involve the questions about what is required to be reconstructed but also the reconstruction mechanism to restore the structures and unsustainable institutions those initially contributed towards the conflict. Reginald Herbold Green (1999) suggests that the rehabilitation must be an interactive process encompassing economic recovery especially rebuilding livelihood, social integration by reducing perceived inequity and stress and political reconciliation as well as restoration of legitimacy and not only rehabilitating the basic amenities, personal security oriented police and courts system. They further note that conflict ridden societies of Rwanda, Uganda, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Uganda, Eretria and Somalia are undergoing the transitional rehabilitation. The conditions of these countries are still fragile because of little or no understanding of how to rebuild the conflict ridden societies. The reason for this void is due to the fact that the term rehabilitation has still being defined quite narrowly and envisaged only in terms of infrastructural improvement (Green and Ahmad, 1999).

Hopmann (1999) in his work writes that the term post conflict rehabilitation has also been used in the doctrinal context while discussing the state of people and the areas which had undergone the sufferings from the conflict. He chooses the rehabilitation as the explanatory one for activities that involve in healing the problems like economic and social distress. He believes that the assistance is made available by rehabilitation activities to relieve the circumstances responsible for conflict and make the reconciliation process difficult (Hopmann, 1999). The role of international and national agencies assumes critical importance in the post conflict settings when the afflicted community lacks capability to deal with the situation. In such circumstances the fragile peace can be even further deteriorated and in certain cases may revert back to the violence or to the state of conflict (Hopmann, 1999). The rehabilitation is vital in the sense that it entails generative changes. The phenomenon of rehabilitation is also associated with the restoration of entitlements of conflict ridden population and other households (Carbonnier, 2015). However others find rehabilitation, regeneration, recovery and reconstruction as terminologies that can be used interchangeably (Hoffmann, 2009).

The sponsored terrorism along with the inequalities, economic relative deprivation, ethnicity and religious extremism are the key contributors to the recent conflicts. In post- conflict societies, the government agencies are required to deal with the restoration, development, reintegration and security. The foreign assistance essential to achieve these objectives may not be forthcoming or may not be welcomed in the tribal societies (Corradi

74 and Patricia, 1992). The foreign interventions in rebuilding and rehabilitation may refuel the conflict as has been witnessed in Afghanistan during the recent years. Also when the ethnicity, religion, and nationalism are involved in the conflicts then local and historical factors need special attention while planning the rehabilitation and reconstruction strategies. In other words the rehabilitation measures practiced in post conflict environments in the Balkans may not be applicable to the complex tribal societies like North Waziristan. However the research will consider the various dimensions for effective practical application of the rich toolbox of the post conflict rehabilitation in real situations. 3.2 Theoretical Framework

An integrated study conducted in post conflict environment of North Waziristan bears certain major conceptual as well as methodological problems. The issues confronted are primarily two fold; firstly, the scarcity of research conducted and secondly, relative absence of solid theoretical foundation due to a complex field. Twentieth century conflicts driven by the element of terrorism are highly complex and multifaceted in nature encompassing socioeconomic exploitations, cultural aspects and politico-administrative chaos. Another important challenge is difficulty in gathering of reliable data about conflict ridden areas for comprehensive empirical analysis. Nature of destruction caused by the conflicts; despite being similar in kind to the natural calamities, demands different rehabilitation strategy.

The multidimensionality and complex character of the study has made exigent to examine different aspects of the research by applying relevant theories. In this regard the interplay of social engineering theory and the systems thinking approach will form basis of the research argument. Social engineering theory explains the state intervention to induce fabricated and deliberate social change to pursue the state objectives through Waziristan society. The systems thinking approach while employing the social engineering theory provides an in-depth insight of the problem through systematic analysis for presenting a whole encompassing strategy to address the complex socioeconomic and political issues. Based on the argument that victims of the negative social engineering need rehabilitation through positive social change; the interplay of two theoretical approaches has been applied to understand the research argument in coming sections of the dissertation.

3.2.1 Social Engineering

What are the methods by which states, groups and individual have struggled to shape societies through the ages? For reasons which range from altruism to selfish greed, states and people attempt to change, manipulate and direct the flux of social action in order to maintain the status quo or reach a new order in which they can participate more fully in the social riches. In this backdrop the study of history and methods by which segments of society have battled for mastery is seminal to the sociological endeavour. The study of sociotechnics that have been employed to influence the social change also give a clearer view of methods and stratagems used to implement these changes. During 1966, one of the Polish sociologists Adm Podgorecki set out to develop sociotechnics as an applied social science that was non-ideological but would have the capability of unmasking the communist regime‘s social engineering stratagems. Sociotechnics was distinct than earlier social engineering practices although it supported the rational choice in political and social paradigm for efficient social action (Alexander and Schmidt, 1996).

An English historian and journalist Paul Johnson (1983) had written that the twentieth century was essentially the period of social engineering. He says that the term social engineering means positioning and testing the social and environmental forces to cause the likelihood of inducing effective social action. Word engineering implies the designing and raising structures and procedures where human beings act as raw material. This social engineering technique applied during twentieth century has evoked and brought large scale social changes. These changes occurred in accordance with the predetermined ideas and outcome of social projects, visions, and social plans designed at large scale. These twentieth century social engineering plans often exacted dreadful costs. The human beings; the raw material used by the social engineers is resistant and therefore difficult to adjust to designers plans. At times the social engineering scientists have often applied violent means to sever the will of subjects required to be changed (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996). The social engineering is also defined as the acts of manipulating an individual to force an action which might not be in the best interest of the subject. This might include gathering of information, gaining access, or covertly forcing the subject to take predetermined action (Hadnagy, 2011).

The poetry of Popper referred to dissimilarity between utopian or all-embracing form of social engineering and the piecemeal social engineering. The two forms of social engineering differ in their immensity of vision, plans and the projects. What Paul Johnson 76

(1983) referred as simply the social engineering, the Popper terms it as utopian social engineering (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996). In the piecemeal form of social engineering the engineer endeavours to achieve his goal through small steps while correcting his moves incessantly. This type of social engineering often does not go well with the political tempers of large number of dedicated activists because their social engineering programs are generally utopian in nature. Proponents of utopian forms of social engineering in advance know that total social transformation of the society is essential. They claim to have the knowledge of knowing in advance that what must be done and what all is required to be removed. Contrary the advocates of piecemeal social engineering believe in deciding in advance only the range of reforms.

The rise of the nation‘s state is considered as the main reason for advent of the concept of social engineering. The states in the name of national interests, social order and strategy started the process of major societal interventions through specialized state agencies and institutions. These state interventions covered a vast spectrum of activities related to different social aspects including examining the social tendencies to define the behavioural standards. It is however important to mention that the concept of social engineering is not restricted to state interventions only but also takes place at micro levels. The social engineering is a bottom-up and not necessarily top down phenomenon (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996). Eighteenth century efforts undertaken by the French government to change firmly followed religious values present an ideal case of social engineering. However the Marxism during the period of nineteenth century promoted the phenomenon of revolutionary reformation across Europe offered supreme motivation for social engineering. In-fact most of the famous social engineers of the twentieth century were dictators like Hitler and Stalin. Most of the twentieth century social engineering initiatives failed because raw material; the human beings resisted and could not adjust to the process (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996).

Different research projects undertaken to study war have reflected that the sociocultural values are entrenched by the institutional arrangements and the prevailing circumstances and are not autonomous factors (Lopez and Snyder, 2011). Though sociocultural values have an important role in societies but their vulnerabilities to the exploitation through state institutions and individuals are quite significant to remain unnoticed. The blossoming of social engineering arose in intimate connection with the state‘s expansion into economic development, employment, welfare and social policy. The

77 state agencies use social engineering to pursue national interests and foreign policy strategy, and to improve social order and morality (Bristow, 1996). Social engineering helped imperial powers to control their colonies and unfortunately the same has been applied by different states to further their strategic objectives (Quah and Sales, 2000). When left unchecked the states through the phenomenon of social engineering; while hiding the real motives fabricate the realities. Mostly the state intelligence apparatus is used to divert the attention from what is essentially required in the pursuit of perceived geostrategic interests. The process of such a social change through state intervention initiated on behest of external factors cannot be controlled and may trigger a process of sociocultural degeneration. During recent past, the same phenomenon has been observed in the area under study; which subsequently has resulted into socioeconomic devastation and political chaos in North Waziristan.

3.2.2 Application of Sociotechnics

Podgorecki‘s (1996) warning about utopian sociotechnics is of great importance. He warned that utopian sociotechnics were rooted in the totalitarian experience of twentieth century Europe. History has shown the dangers of utopian designs aiming at transforming social structures to fit a scientific blueprint. Even when the goals seem legitimate and progressive, an imposed utopia represents a threat to the vital interests and integrity of the local society. To this regard Podgorecki referred to Massell study (1974), which concerned the revolutionary strategy to emancipate women in the Muslim communities of the Soviet Central Asia during 1912 – 1929. The hidden goal was to penetrate tightly knit Muslim society and undermine it from within. The intervention resulted in a worsening situation for local women. The lessons derived from the totalitarian past have to be kept in mind as a reminder of negative designs and the need for a realistic sociological understanding of the context in which the intervention is taking place (Denis and Fishman, 2009).

Four fundamental possibilities may appear while discussing the application of social engineering projects in the intended subject research area (Podgórecki, Alexander, and Shields, 1996).

 During the application of Piecemeal Independent Factor (PIF) social engineers first recognize the factors with little or partial influence to identify the effect of factors and envisage potential negative by-products. The scope of this technique is limited

with confined results hence the things generally remain controlled. The examples of this strategy include the laws relating to privatization and the public private joint ventures. As the laws are critically analyzed for their possible negative impact therefore the same can be readily reversed if fail to meet the changed requirements even before their application.  The second strategy called Global Independent Factor (GIF) is used to study a particular factor having effects across the society. The factor under study is not analyzed to calculate isolated positive or the negative effects but to test its collective impact on the society. The example of this strategy is the total imposition of a monolithic ideology.  Third strategy called Global Dependent Target (GDT) is applied across the society without selecting any target area thus exposing the entire society to the process of unmeasured social change. During the recent years this technique has become the most favourite tool of the terrorist outfits like ISIS and Al-Qaeda to further their global agenda for social transformation.  Piecemeal Dependent Target (PDT) is the fourth type of social engineering strategy which targets a particular area for wanted social change while considering its likely pliability. The process of social change that triggered in the agency under study with the country‘s forced involvement in the Afghan wars is one of the possible applications of this strategy. The targeting social strategies generally involve the identification of subject society, the character traits of the population, the socioeconomic development levels, and above all the willingness to adapt sociocultural changes. During the social engineering process in the agency under study, Piecemeal Dependent Target (PDT) strategy was applied to foster desired social change among resident of North Waziristan in order to achieve the perceived geostrategic goals. The levels of different social engineering strategies applied in the North Waziristan included following.  With the help of United States the government established numerous training facilities for Afghan Mujahedeen along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border including the agency capital Miranshah to train Afghan Mujahedeen.  Empowering of the Mullah against the centuries old tribal institution of elders or Maliks with the objective to exploit the religious sentiments of poorly educated local youth to muster necessary support for Afghan Jihad.

 Allowing the Afghan refugees and foreign; fighter mustered by allied countries, to settle in the tribal areas especially in the Waziristan agencies thus polluting the traditional cultural code of Pakhtunwali.  Establishment of Madrassa network in the tribal region; with main Madrassa Haqania at Miranshah, to feed the Afghan Jihad against former Soviet Union that ultimately breaded the culture of militancy among peace loving Wazir tribes.  Establishing schools for education of the refugee children which affected the children from local communities because they were also admitted in those schools.  Funneling the foreign money especially from United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to religious seminaries and Madrassas established to support the Afghan war. This unchecked flow of money subsequently created extortionists among the local society.

3.2.3 System’s Thinking Approach

In the post Zarb-e-Azb environments different government agencies are undertaking multiple rehabilitation activities across the North Waziristan. However a large number of TDPs has yet not returned which is enough to proclaim the rehabilitation process as a non-systematic in nature. In situation like one at the hand, the establishment of a dynamic rehabilitation strategy by adopting systems thinking approach can be a step forward. Stephen G. Haines (2000) says that the system thinking approach can work in variety of complex situations. Since it looks at how the matter under study interacts with other components of the system (Haines, 2000). System thinking has been established as a robust way of analyzing and solving issues of difficult nature including complex problems involving many actors, recurrent problems or the issues those have been made intricate by previous attempts to solve them. All of such problems are by and large associated with the post conflict rehabilitation. In such type of situations, integrated and proactive systems thinking approach assumes greater significance.

Systems thinking approach compliments the human‘s natural tendency to break down the things in manageable parts which is also known as reductionist thinking (Midgley, 2000). Basically the systems thinking approach is expansionistic in nature that initially analyzes the problem‘s perspective and then subsequently breaks it into various components. The sequence helps in better understanding of the interdependency as well as the element of change in order to handle the factors that characterize the consequences of

80 actions (Senge, 2010). One of the most applicable definitions of the system is an entity which maintains its existence through mutual interaction of its various components (Bertalanffy, 1975). This definition of systems thinking infers something beyond the cause and effect. However at the heart of systems thinking lays the central principle of mutual connectedness of the issues and the problems.

The systems thinking approach offers certain very important conclusions that merit serious consideration before initiating rehabilitation planning in the zone of conflict. One of the important arguments is that society is fairly a complex system and real life world system is composed of subsystems which are mutually overlapping and complex in nature. Moreover it is generally not possible to deal with the individual subsystems in isolation. A segment or combination of varying parts is a system provided any of the components can affect the functioning of the whole, where it is important to mention that there is no end to the system (Checkland, 1999). Systems thinking can allow the researcher to study the underlying root causes that are responsible to steer certain situation instead to draw premature conclusions. In this approach first the phenomenon is considered and then the explored for any connection to the underlying patterns. This all connects to the concept of holism which is the idea that the properties of a system cannot be explained by the sum of its components alone. Holism asserts that the whole can have properties not explainable only by analyzing the constituent parts. As Aristotle has said in the Metaphysics that, ―the whole is more than the sum of its parts‖. The concept of holism comes into play where the system as a whole works differently than its parts since the parts alone cannot perform what a system as a whole can do (Filho, Mifsud, Shiel, and Pretorius, 2017).

All schools of the system thinkers believe that the complex systems entail interrelated parts and their association is understandable in terms of different levels with the elements of one having dependency on either the inferior or the superior level. The properties of the system are emergent and thus cannot be predicted from the properties of individual elements. They affirm that the systems are characterized by feedback, recursion, boundaries, nested sub-systems and responsiveness to the environment in which the system is located (Midgley, 2000). The systems thinking approach is a discipline for seeing the wholes, recognizing patterns and interrelationships rather that static snapshots. It also involves learning how to structure these interrelationships in more effective and efficient ways. The systems theory is a ―research methodology and rigorous macro- scientific and trans-disciplinary framework with its roots in universal laws of living

81 systems and human nature on the earth‖ (Chekland, 1999 and Haines, 2000). Systems thinking approach is a body of knowledge and tools that serves to clear the full patterns of the problems, issues and situations that confront in general (Senge, 2000).

The complexity of terrorism driven armed conflicts and post conflict reconstruction; interwoven with uncertainty, rising risk, and interconnectedness of issues, have made the simple reductionist approaches and habitual modus operandi irrelevant to handle the rehabilitation complexities. When strategy for rehabilitation planning in post conflict zones is discussed, usually the thought of governments, national, local and international organizations, and agencies come into play. Their approach to strategy, planning and management of rehabilitation may vary from one organization to the other and from one case to the other. No afflicted society is same after the conflict and similarly nor are the approaches to post conflict rehabilitation (Eden and Ackermann, 1998). Within an overall dynamic and strategic framework the issues could be dealt with in a better fashion. The process of systems thinking strategy involves creating and molding the future while making sense of the past, constructing rather than predicting and responding to some predetermined future reality. In this approach the key elements are the growth of abilities for conventional thinking and long term plans (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel, 1998).

Different countries and societies have successfully emerged from armed conflicts under conflicting and radically unique conditions. Sri Lanka, Nepal and Afghanistan are distinctive cases with specific context and inherited sociopolitical structures and therefore the priority, appropriateness, and implementation strategies would be different than the area under research. Plans for post conflict rehabilitation should be developed like of a highly complex system comprising social, political, economic, institutional, human and administrative systems and subsystems (Makara, Tukahebwa, and Byarugaba, 1996). The creation of sustainable rehabilitation framework through application of systems thinking approach involves the actors to reach at the starting point and integral frame for considering what needs to be done and which fundamental issues need to be addressed. In the context of systems approach four distinct pillars of rehabilitation to include humanitarian dimension, socioeconomic wellbeing and governance through participation, have been identified (Hamrre and Sllivan, 2002). These pillars are the integral part of post conflict rehabilitation framework to deal with the multitude rebuilding tasks encountered in post conflict societies.

3.2.4 Interplay of Social Engineering and Systems Thinking Approach

Owing to the application of social engineering strategies at various levels during early eighties, the sociocultural outlook of the Waziristan tribes has hugely been transformed. The present day image of local tribes has mostly been formed by the recorded and unrecorded historical literature reinforced by the bigoted colonial policies under the British India. These colonial policies were aimed at justifying the military occupation and their cold blooded treatment of local population. The concept has been explained by Galtung (1969) who believes that when the subject is not only dehumanized and deprived of manhood, then ―the stage is set for any type of direct violence, which is then blamed on the victim‖. Banerjee while describing the colonial era dealings with the population of Pak-Afghan tribal areas observed that ―not only were they an undervalued mass peasantry who were deemed incapable of constructive political action by their own (or at least the Indian) bourgeoisie; they were also as Pathans, the victims of particularly extreme oriental representations which portrayed them as far more hotheaded and unpredictable than even the average Indian peasant‖ (Banerjee, 2010). The British policies in the area particularly Waziristan had been characterized through blockades, the subsidies to certain tribes, engineering of the system by manipulating the tribal culture and even armed expeditions to implement the desired changes. These social exploitations of the local population continued until the colonial power; the British decided to grant independence to both Pakistan and India during August 1947.

The successive governments of Pakistan largely pursued the policies of local exploitations through social engineering strategies. These manipulations got furthered geared-up after Red Armies of former Soviet Union marched into Afghanistan. The Afghan occupation prompted Pakistan to readily align her state policies to the Western agenda. Practical manifestations of state sponsored social interventions in the tribal areas especially the Waziristan eventually started haunting the local populations during late 1990s. The phenomenon of Talibanization; direct by-product of the persistent state neglect and social engineering strategies in Waziristan, is generally attributed to the cultural traits of the Waziristan population. Harbouring Al-Qaeda fugitives to the destruction of educational institutions especially girls‘ schools and inhuman acts of cutting throats appear accustomed with sociocultural values of the locals. Even the tainted fundamental principles of Talibans‘ Islam are being associated with the centuries old Pakhtun traditions of Pakhtunwali (Taj, 2011).

The recent process of social engineering including religious indoctrination and inducement of militant culture mainly commenced after Pakistan decided to join her Western allies to fight the communist Soviet regime due to her intervention in the Afghanistan. The Afghan communist revolution in 1978 followed by the Soviet presence in country‘s neighborhood, created a geostrategic nightmare for Pakistan and therefore she readily accepted to convert the country‘s tribal areas into marshaling areas for Afghan Jihad. However the formal advent of social engineering process can be ascribed to the flood of Afghan refugees who were settled in the refugee camps established across FATA including the surrounding areas of Peshawar. The Afghan refugees were then subsequently funded, trained and equipped with the modern weaponry provided by the United States and her Western Allies to fight the infidels in Afghanistan. To provide much needed replenishments during the Afghan war, literature preaching Jihad was circulated to galvanize the local tribes to join the fight morally and logistically. Moreover the militant elements from across the globe were motivated to settle in the tribal region especially Waziristan to participate in Afghan Jihad. Marwat (2005) writes that the whole process of social engineering was supplemented by religious seminaries and around one thousand Madrassas established in the tribal areas including Waziristan without any regulatory mechanism for oversight. These Madrassas while enrolling the local youth also hosted a huge number of foreign Muslim students who later turned into a potent hard core militant force to be reckoned with. For the purpose of indoctrination of refugee and local children a network of schools was established under the watch of agencies like UNHCR, different NGOs and political parties. Textbooks taught in these schools were published in theUnited States with contents aimed at ideological propaganda (Gul, 2009). For instance the book of mathematics included mathematical problems like ―If out of 10 infidels 5 were killed by 1 Muslim, 5 would be left‖ and ―15 bullets – 10 bullets = 5 bullets‖ etc. (Marwat, 2005).

Since the Waziristan tribes were intended to play a critical role during the Afghan Jihad therefore the local population was given maximum exposure to social indoctrination. The social engineering was not limited to the tribal areas only rather the state also introduced certain constitutional reforms including the renaming of parliament as Majlis- e-Shoora. The Madrassa certificates were granted equivalence to university degree bringing parties with religious slogans into the mainstream politics at national level (Marwat, 2005). These constitutional changes combined the politics and religion motives thereby giving undue leverage to self-proclaimed Islamic parties. Also different scholars

84 unknowingly contributed to achieve the intended covert objectives of social engineering introduced to further geopolitical interests. While commenting on the post Afghan invasion scenario General Hameed Gul (Retd) said that ―Jihad is oven in the Pakhtuns‘ culture‖. He was of the opinion that Pakhtuns are compelled by their culture to fight the imperial power (the United States) and its supporters so long as it maintains presence in this region (Shakoor, 2012). Although these myths have no real linkage with the Pakhtun culture but this bears no meaning when people have successfully been made to believe it as reality. The ground work was done through perception building process and the stage was set for desired social change that eventually cultivated the seeds of militancy without any controlling mechanism in place. Thus the emergence of Taliban led terrorism that turned into a conflict should not be a surprise if one analyzes the situation in retrospect.

Bergen and Tiedemann (2013) observed that the causes of terrorism in the region included geostrategic, ideological, economic and political. They assert that the due to prevailing unrest, the natural riches of the area like gas, oil, manganese, soap stone, chromate, fluorite, coal, gypsum, iron ore, lead, quartz, marble and lime stone could not be explored for the socioeconomic wellbeing of the tribesmen. They argue that the present administrative system needs replacement as the same would help to initiate the processes of development in the agency (Bergen and Tiedemann, 2013). They believe that solution to the problem of development lies in systematic approach to complex issues of post conflict reconstruction including empowering the tribal elders and restoring the balance to a socio-cultural system, engineered in turmoil since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 (Bergen and Tiedemann, 2013).

Post Crisis Need Assessment of KP and FATA (2011) reported that violence and the militancy are due to the reasons of poverty, unemployment, bad governance, low human development, poor infrastructure, acute shortage of basic services, and economic backwardness of the residents of the agency. These factors have been adding fuels to militancy and insurgency. The Government has been facing the problem of in creating the job opportunities in these circumstances to increases lawful livelihood environment. In the post conflict rehabilitation framework special attention need to be given to the youth, women and job creation opportunities to for achieve lasting peace. Chairman Youth Association of Pakistan, Mr. Kamboh said that youth has always desired socioeconomic change for prosperity, development and peace that will block radicalization of the society. He also observes that youth is the backbone of any nation and healthy and educated youths

85 plays an important role in the development of a nation. He remarked that during past majority of the local youth underwent social engineering organized by successive governments to pursue their foreign policies at the cost of isolating them for development (K. Kamboh, personal communication, May 16, 2017).

To sum-up the Pakistani involvement in Afghan Jihad followed by the state policy of inducing sociocultural changes among Waziristan tribes breaded the phenomenon of militancy ―a negative social change‖. The same after the Afghan invasion by the United States in 2002 turned the North Waziristan into an epicenter of terrorism. These militant groups later supported by foreign agencies and their local sympathizers unleashed a worst kind of terrorism driven conflict across the Pakistan in general and Waziristan in particular. Consequently the local population due to evolved conflict started suffering for the problems which were hardly of their own making. The state of conflict not only destroyed the political and tribal institutions of the agency but also ruined the existing socioeconomic infrastructure in the area. Before the final extinction of the conflict through successful completion of operation Zarb-e-Azb, the terrorists while destroying the economic and politic-administrative structure of the agency had already stained the most cherished local sociocultural attributes. For successful restoration of the socioeconomic and politico-administrative structures in the post conflict environments, there is need to analyze the post conflict rehabilitation needs in long term perspective and the historical context of the issues confronted. The systems thinking approach provides a framework to systematically handle numerous complex factors that contributed to the conflict. It also provides essential mechanism to plan and execute a comprehensive rehabilitation strategy including development and de-radicalization of the infected local youth from North Waziristan. The systems thinking focuses on long term initiatives for restoration of socioeconomic, cultural and political institutions of the agency to address deep rooted causes of conflict and foster necessary social conditions to establish sustainable peace (Carbonnier, 2015). The review of contemporary post conflict societies forms a basis for an integrated approach to a successful rehabilitation strategy. The strategy merits to be looked at from a holistic and systemic viewpoint where each rehabilitation dimension fits with other social aspects in the post conflict environments of the agency.

The failing structure of the North Waziristan can be attributed to the state‘s lack of response to the problem of militancy. It has almost been fifteen years since the War on Terrorism was initiated but due to lack of holism in the strategy, the state has remained

86 unable to formulate a rehabilitation program that could help to reintegrate the area and the tribes into the mainstream Pakistan. The process of sociocultural restoration and economic recovery are the most important objectives of any rehabilitation strategy. In order to achieve these goals the involvement of locals through participatory rehabilitation planning followed by shared execution can only work for sustainable peace and security (Lederach., 2000). The state therefore needs to initiate a systemized post conflict rehabilitation strategy while carefully considering the aspirations of local inhabitants. The systems thinking approach duly supplemented by positive social engineering will provide a whole encompassing framework to address the local population demands of rigorous reformation in social, economic and political fields. The research models emerged from the literature review and above discussion duly modified by the author; based on social engineering theory and systems‘ thinking approach with two important components to include causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy, have been shown in figures given below.

Figure 8: Research Model Causes of Conflict

Terrorism

Conflict Civic Services

Poor Governance

Figure 9: Research Model Rehabilitation Strategy

Social Restoration

Economic Recovery Post Conflict Rehabilitation

Governance Reforms

3.3 Hypothesized Relationships

Six Hypotheses have been developed from the study of relevant literature and the researchers‘ understanding of the problem. Hypothesized relationships given below have been established to achieve the research objectives and to answer the research questions while exploring the causes of conflict as well as desired rehabilitation strategy.

3.3.1 Causes of Conflict

 H1; There is a significant relationship between conflict and the terrorism.

 H2; There is a significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic services.

 H3; There is a significant relationship between conflict and poor governance.

3.3.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

 H4; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social restoration.

 H5; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and economic recovery.

 H6; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and governance reforms. 3.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter while giving brief details of various concepts covers the theoretical framework used to investigate different research questions. The first section of this chapter gives a brief account of different concepts including Tribal Culture, Talibanization, Conflict and Rehabilitation. The second section of the chapter explains social engineering theory with its application levels and how these have been applied over the years in the agency under study. After having acquired the knowledge about the causes of conflict, this section elaborately advocates the application of system‘s thinking approach in planning an effective rehabilitation strategy in the post conflict environments of the North Waziristan. The chapter after discussing the interplay of both social engineering theory and system‘s

88 thinking approach gives the hypothesized relationships developed from the literature review and the researchers‘ understanding of the problem.

CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY

The methodology is a fundamental structural design mostly based on research tools and techniques to carry out empirical investigations. This study in principal has adopted the exploratory survey method which assists investigating and identifying the patterns to name a social phenomenon (Nathanson, Higgins, Giglio, and Munshi, 2003). 4.1 Research Design

The study has applied pragmatic mode which is mix of qualitative and quantitative methods of research to collect primary data. The pragmatic approach provides multiple dimensions and triangulation in research design, theoretical framework and research strategies. The adoption of pragmatic approach is at aimed to seek a detailed understanding of responses through quantitative method using qualitative questionnaire for random probing of the respondents. According to Gilbert (2010) the random probes ―provide a check on the validity of the questions‖. He also believes that random probes ―provide illustrative material about what underlies respondents view‖ (Gilbert, 2010).

Both quantitative and qualitative research approaches are well known in among academic scholars. Krishna and Shrader (1999) argue that in social sciences the qualitative research approach as compared to quantitative approach has been more focused due to its wide range of strengths. They further comment that qualitative approach refers to use of purposive sampling and semi-structured, open-ended interviews for data collection and analysis techniques. They however believe that for detailed analysis of sociopolitical and economic processes both techniques allow to produce and analyze the textual datum (Krishna and Shrader, 1999). On the contrary Bamberger (2000) theorizes that neither of the research approach is superior with each having own merits and demerits. Although combining of both the approaches is often highly productive but the important question however is how to choose a suitable combination once research questions or the problems have been correctly defined (Bamberger, 2000).

A combination of both quantitative and qualitative approaches has been applied to compensate the weaknesses of one with the strengths of the other. Moreover, each of the strategies has distinctive characteristics that make the possibility of combining them more attractive (Bryman, 1988). The idea of employing multiple methodological strategies by the researcher to avoid looking at social phenomenon through a particular lens is also

91 supported by different scholars as this methodological plurality encourages the diversity of views and exploration of truths (Philips, 1998). 4.2 Universe of Study

The study has been undertaken in all parts of the North Waziristan to grasp issues that had been confronted by local population during recent past especially after United States led military occupation of Afghanistan. The inhabitants from all three Sub-divisions of the agency were contacted to seek their feedback for in-depth analysis of the research questions. The efforts were made to select the respondents from each Tehsil while taking into account the impact of terrorism on these parts of the agency.

4.2.1 Miranshah Sub-Division

Miranshah sub-division had the highest concentration of terrorists including foreign and their local accomplices. During the period of militancy, Miranshah served as the nerve center from where terrorists not only controlled and coordinated their activities in the agency but also throughout the country. Maximum respondents were approached in this sub-division to get their feedback about research questions.

4.2.2 Mirali Sub-Division

After Miranshah, Mirali sub-division was most terrorist infested area in the agency under study. Local population from this area also suffered the most at the hands of militants during the period of terrorism led conflict. The second largest number of respondents was selected from this area for reliable results from the collected data.

4.2.3 Razmak Sub-Division

Sub-division Razmak had maximum number of Mehsud terrorists and the least of the foreign militants when compared with the other parts of the agency. Therefore number of respondents from Razmak area was selected on comparative basis to add reliability to the process of data analysis.

4.3 Research Variables The instruments used for the mentioned variables has been adapted from well- known definitions. The eight steps procedure proposed by the Churchill (1979) for developing measuring instrument has been followed. Following research variables have

92 been identified to study the causes of conflict followed by rehabilitation strategy in the post conflict environment.

Table 6: Research Variables

Serial Description Construct No of items

1. Dependent Conflict 6

a. Independent Terrorism 5

b. Independent Poor Governance 5

c. Independent Lack of Civic Services 5

2. Dependent Rehabilitation Framework 7

a. Independent Social Restoration 6

b. Independent Economic Recovery 6

c. Independent Governance Reforms 5

Source: Author‘s Compilation 4.4 Sampling Technique

Sampling is an essential tool to conduct a research because real outcomes greatly depend upon the accuracy of sample size and sampling procedure. Accurate sample size also known as precession is helpful in predictability of any phenomenon (Frankfort- Nachmias and Nachmias, 1992). The decision to take appropriate sample is guided by the need for equally representative and unbiased responses. The research has used non- probability sampling design to collect relevant information needed to explore the causes of conflict and to suggest post conflict rehabilitation strategy. For this reason various segments of Waziristan community living inside or outside the agency were approached for data collection. The respondents included tribal Maliks, religious leaders, government and private servants, business community, Temporary Displaced Persons, subject experts, students and un-employed individuals.

4.5 Sample Size

According to 1998 census report, total counted population of FATA is 31,76,331 out of which 3,61,246 are from the Waziristan Agency (Pakistan, 1998). However during 2013, local political administration had estimated surge in the agency population bringing the population equal to 4,78,000 (Y. Akhunzada, personal communication, October 7, 2016). Bearing in mind the multiplicity of variables, the sample size has been drawn as guided by following sampling size formula.

2 ss = Z * (p) * (1-p)

2 c

Where ―Z‖ represents the Z value (e.g. 1.96 for 95% confidence level), ―p‖ reflects the picking a choice expressed as decimal (0.5 used for sample size needed), and ―c‖ is the confidence interval expressed as decimal (e.g., .04 = ±4).

According to standard survey rules, the sample size calculated with 95% confidence level and confidence interval ranging between 3 to 5 is the most appropriate to obtain responses for reliable data analysis. While anticipating the possibility of low response rate due to peculiar sociocultural environments of the agency, 725 respondents were approached by distributing questionnaires to register their response. However, only 535 questionnaires were received back including 32 unfilled thereby leaving 503 carrying usable data for subsequent analysis. The measured values of confidence interval range equal to 4.37 and confidence level 95% are within the given limits suggesting a sample size of 503 respondents. Sample distribution for three sub-divisions is given in table 7.

Table 7: Sample Distribution Sub-Division Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Miranshah 267 53.1 53.1

Mirali 164 32.6 85.7

Razmak 72 14.3 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Sources: Author‘s Compilation

4.6 Sample Rationale

4.6.1 Maliks and Religious Leaders

Maliks and religious leaders had been playing an important role in the government‘s fight against terrorism. Both tribal maliks and religious leaders greatly contributed in determining the study directions by providing needed information. They also have an important role in reference to FCR, counter insurgency and other affairs related to post conflict rehabilitation process.

4.6.2 Displaced Persons

Displaced persons were those permanent residents of North Waziristan who had unblemished understanding of the issue. The information collected from them helped the researcher to precisely understand the nature, intensity and direction of the research. They unequivocally explained all the events that damaged the sociocultural matrix of the society resulting into diminished writ of the state despite explicit and implicit state interventions.

4.6.3 Business Community

The business community is one of the key stakeholders in terms of goods and services available in the area under study. The information provided by business community helped in exploring the relevant socioeconomic parameter as flow of money suffered due to foreign currency circulation into the local market especially for purpose of paying salaries to terrorists. This phenomenon not only ruined the businesses but also promoted the terrorism weakening the writ of the state in the agency (Alam., Ahmed, and Muhammad, 2014).

4.6.4 Experts and the Students

The perception of academicians and local students studying at post graduate level in different universities and institutions in Islamabad was recorded to investigate the research problem. It is important to mention that the educated individuals including students had first-hand knowledge of various factors responsible to ruin socioeconomics as well as political system of the agency.

4.6.5 Government Officials

The government functionaries of the agency including political administration and security forces have been playing key role to fight the conflicts breeding terrorism. Since all decisions relating to administration and countering insurgency fall under the domain of government officials; therefore their input have hugely helped the researcher to meet the study objectives. 4.7 Data Collection

Antonius (2003) succinctly writes that the ―word data points to information that is collected in a systematic way and organized and recorded to enable the reader to interpret the information correctly‖. He further states that the process of data collection is not a haphazard one, but it is done in response to research queries being investigated by the researcher (Antonius, 2003). The essence of data collection is open to reconfiguration and therefore is an alternative way of seeing and finding answers to the queries being investigated (Schostak, 2006).

4.7.1 Data Sources

The research is primarily based on the primary data gathered through feedback given by respondents from all three sub-divisions of the subject area. The respondents included tribal maliks, religious leaders, government and private servants, business community, Temporary Displaced Persons, subject experts, students and un-employed individuals. The primary data has been supplemented by the information gathered from archives of the political administration, FATA secretariat development plans and non- participatory personal observations. The secondary data has also been collected made from different development project reports and concerned locals reports from national and international organizations for detailed desk review.

4.7.2 Collection Tools

The data collection tools have been selected according to the nature of field research, culture of local communities, geography, and other ground realities. The research questions necessitated exercising of extreme caution during the process of data collection in a highly traditionalist tribal society. Therefore instead of adopting the available scales, a self-administered questionnaire was adopted while keeping in view the sociocultural sensitivities of the area. The self-administered questionnaire used the 5- point Likert scale

96 which is a ―technique for measurement of attitudes, describing the concepts and principles, and an instrument to quantify constructs describing psychological and social phenomena‖ (Likert, 1932). Nachmias (1992) also believes that Likert scale used as data collection tool during the survey is the most reliable technique for attitude measurements. The scale statements were framed on the basis of literature review, field observations by researcher and discussions with the relevant experts. The individual responses were classified according to 5- point Likert scale as ―strongly agree‖, ―agree‖, ―neutral‖ ―disagree‖ and ―strongly disagree‖. The scale statements were given personal scores and pretested in order to remove any error or ambiguity or to add something more important to investigate the problem before actual data collection process could be started.

For data collection different sections of the questionnaire were framed to index the locals‘ perceptions about the causes of conflict and popular dimensions of the development before suggesting a rehabilitation framework covering sociocultural, economic and politico-administrative dimensions. The self-administered questionnaire included following three core sections with forty five (45) questions / items to extract relevant information needed to answer the research questions while testing the statements of research hypotheses.

 Section A: Demographic profile of the respondents  Section B: Causes of conflict  Section C: Rehabilitation strategy

The process of scale development commenced with the pilot testing a set of 70 questions / items by seeking feedback from 25 respondents. Based on the respondents input, the questionnaire was modified and a new questionnaire consisting 45 questions / items was finalized. Copy of the self-administered questionnaire has also been placed at annexure M. The questionnaire was again pilot tested by seeking response form 120 respondents to establish the scale reliability. Following Chronbach‘s alpha formula (Chronbach, 1984) was used during the pilot testing to ascertain questionnaire reliability by measuring internal consistency of the scale.

Where ―N‖ represents the number of items, ―c ‖ indicates the average covariance between items, and ―v ‖ gives the average variance.

The reliability of questionnaire depends on purpose and type of adopted scale; a 5- point likert scale in this case. Ideally the Cronbach alpha coefficient of a scale should be above 0.7 (DeVellis, 2003). A thumb rule for Cronbach alpha interpretation of dichotomous questions with possibly two answers or for the Likert scale questions are reflected in Table 8 given below.

Table 8: Cronbach Alpha Standards

Cronbach Alpha Internal Consistency Excellent Good Acceptable Questionable Poor Unacceptable

Source: Cronbach Alpha (1984)

The Cronbach alpha coefficient value 0.909 measured during the pilot testing through feedback from 120 respondents confirms the reliability of self-administered scale as the value is greater than 0.70 (Nunally, 1978). Cronbach alpha values measured for two research dimensions during the pilot testing are given below in table 9.

Table 9: Cronbach Alpha Values

Scale Cronbach Alpha No of questions

Causes of Conflict .914 21

Rehabilitation strategy .915 24

Total Items - 45

Source: Author‘s Compilation

4.7.3 Collection Process

The data collection has been carried out during the period from July 2016 to Jun 2017, by carrying survey, visiting concerned offices, areas of relevant communities and

98 other stake holders bearing in mind the availability of respondents and requisite security measures. For the purpose of data collection; a total of 800 sets of questionnaire were distributed among the potential respondents from the North Waziristan. However only 535 questionnaire including 32 unfilled were received back from the respondents thus leaving 503 questionnaire with usable data. The response rate during the process of data collection therefore remained 62.90 percent which according to Sekaran (2010) is acceptable.

4.7.4 Problems Encountered

Major problem encountered during the process of data collection was the security concerns due to sensitivity of the area under study. Moreover, few respondents were hesitant to share their views regarding sociopolitical environments of the agency. However there also existed a fairly large number of respondents who were anxious and looking forward to talk about their social, political and economic problems. Most of the data collection process was under taken with the assistance of local political administration which facilitated in holding meetings with different segments of the local community to seek their views to investigate identified research questions. 4.8 Data Analysis

The study has used combination of multiple data analysis tools and techniques for detailed evaluation of the available data. The collected data has been analyzed systematically and interpreted by applying Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software program. In addition to the descriptive statistics, Factor Analysis, Cronbach Alpha Coefficient, Pearson‘s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PMCC) and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis have also been used during the data analysis.

The collected data was narrowed down and summarized through tabulations and diagrammatic representations by using content analysis methodology; ―a systematic, replicable technique for compressing many words of text into fewer content categories based on explicit rules of coding‖ (Weber, 1990) and through hermeneutics which is an attempt to make clear, to make sense of an object of study (Taylor, 1976). Subsequently the process of data analysis commenced with confirmation of data reliability by applying the Normality test using skewness and kurtosis analysis which bear no effect on the analysis results for sufficiently large sample like 200 plus (Tabachnick and Fidell, 2007). The test described a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve, with high frequency scores in the middle and smaller frequencies at both extremes (Gravetter and Wallnau, 2016).

After having established the reliability of collected data, the scale validity for both complete scale and the individual variables was checked through Cronbach alpha coefficient. The descriptive analysis was then carried out to get the detailed information about different observed variables including socio-demographic profile of the respondents. The results from analysis were presented in the form of percentage and frequency. Following the descriptive analysis, the association between dependent and independent variables was observed by using Pearson‘s correlation method of bivariate analysis. The analysis revealed that the direction of responses favoring or disfavoring one or more aspect of variables under investigation. Subsequently the research variables were validated by subjecting the collected data to Factor analysis. Thereafter the validated data was subjected to multiple Regression analysis to explore the research variables to conclude necessary policy options for comprehensive rehabilitation strategy in the post conflict environments. 4.9 Chapter Summary

This chapter gives detailed account of the research methodology followed during the research process. The chapter after defining the research design discusses about the universe of study. After deliberating the research variables, the chapter describes sampling technique and rational followed by data collection including sources, data collection tools, data collection process and problems encountered. Subsequent section of this chapter explain the data analysis process mentioning different methods used during the data analysis to investigate the research questions. Final section of this chapter also gives delimitations of the research in hand.

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CHAPTER 5

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

101

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

This chapter presents results of the analysis along with systematic interpretation of collected data through application of quantitative research tools. The data analysis has been carried out by using SPSS software and the results have been presented in the form of tables and graphs. The documentation and analysis is aimed at to present the data in a logical and interpretable form. .

The data has been gathered through a self-administered questionnaire completed by 503 respondents (n=503) with response rate of about 63 percent. Hussey and Hussey (1997) categorizes two types of non-response; firstly the ―questionnaires are not returned at all‖ and secondly ―some of the questions in the questionnaire have not been answered‖. The Division of Instructional Innovation and Assessment (2010) from the University of Texas observes that for studies designed to measure effects or to make generalizations to larger population, the response rate is more significant. The DIIA also claims that the response rate is comparatively less significant in case of studies conducted only to gain an insight of certain phenomenon (Texas, 2010). The DIIA further observes that for electronically completed questionnaires, the average value of response rate varies between 30 to 40 percent (Texas, 2010). The value and the validity of the technique as well as results are questionable if the response rate is less than 30 percent (Gillham, 2010). The response rate value of 63 percent is significant for the study in hand and therefore the value and validity of the results can be used to generalize the findings of the study.

. In this chapter data collected through self administered questionnaire has been statistically analyzed. The analysis commences with the discussion about demographic profile of the respondents followed by the exploratory factor analysis. The following sections of this chapter dilate upon the normality test for subsequent regression analysis. 5.1 Demographic Profiling

This part of the self-administered questionnaire comprises the respondent‘s demographic and personal details including age, gender, education, profession, house status and the sub-division of residence. Though this section is not central to the research problem, however personal details and demographic profile of the respondents assisted in contextualizing the research findings to formulate a comprehensive post conflict rehabilitation strategy.

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5.1.1 Respondents’ Age

The respondents from the subject area were asked to give the information regarding their age group. Table 10 below gives the age groups of the respondents.

Table 10: Respondent’s Age Age Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

18 to 25 Years 193 38.4 38.4

26 to 35 Years 178 35.4 73.8

35 to 50 Years 103 20.5 94.2

51 and above 29 5.8 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Source: Author‘s Compilation

Table 10 reflects that maximum respondents numbering to 193 belong to age group between 18 to 25 years followed by 178 respondents with the ages ranging from 26 to 35 years. The data indicates that bulk of the respondents measuring about 74 percent belonged to age bracket from 18 to 35 years. The remaining 26 percent respondents come from two different age groups with 21 percent falling between 35 to 50 years and 6 percent belonging to ages more than 51 years. The data signifies that the youth with ages ranging between 18 to 35 years is more concerned to form part of the correction process. The data also reflects the respondents‘ willingness to share their views about turmoil faced during recent years and rehabilitation strategy for post conflict environments.

5.1.2 Respondents’ Gender

The respondents‘ feedback has also been measured on gender basis. Table 11 below reflects the gender distribution of respondents from the sampled community.

Table 11: Respondent’s Gender Gender Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Male 436 86.7 86.7

103

Female 67 13.3 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Source: Author‘s Compilation

Table 11 above shows that about 87 percent respondents; numbering 436 belonged to male gender group while around 7 percent of the respondents counting 67 came from the female gender group. The data indicates that the perceptions are mostly male dominated with very small representation of female folks. The data is true reflection of a male dominated tribal society where males decide the future socioeconomic and politico- administrative fortunes. However the feedback from female gender in a traditionalist society of North Waziristan; though very small in percentage is of immense importance in suggesting post conflict rehabilitation strategy encompassing views from both the genders.

5.1.3 Respondents’ Education

The respondents were also asked to furnish information regarding their educational background. In order to facilitate them four different categories based on the levels of education in terms of number of years were suggested. Table 12 below gives different categories of respondent‘s educational background.

Table 12: Respondent’s Education

Education Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Below Primary 59 11.7 11.7

Primary to Middle 121 24.1 35.8

Matric to Bachelor 196 39.0 74.8

Masters and above 127 25.2 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Source: Author‘s Compilation

Table 12 above indicates that respondents who shared their perceptions have come from different educational levels. About 39 percent of the respondents numbering 196 have the educational level between Matric to Bachelors followed by 25 percent

104 respondents counting 127 with the educational background of Masters or above. There are about 24 percent numbering 121 who have the education levels between primary to middle. However 59 respondents measuring around 11 percent of the total recorded responses came from comparatively uneducated class having education below primary level. Collected data signifies that recorded responses almost cover the entire educational spectrum of North Waziristan society comprising about 64 percent educated class with educational background of Matric or above.

5.1.4 Respondents’ Profession

The feedback regarding respondents‘ profession was also sought to ascertain their economic conditions. The given response is based on six different options suggested to the respondents. Table 13 below shows the professional details of the sampled community.

Table 13: Respondent’s Profession

Profession Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Government Job 61 12.1 12.1

Private Job 30 6.0 18.1

Own Business 78 15.5 33.6

Jobless 62 12.3 45.9

Student 197 39.2 85.1

Others 75 14.9 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The data in table 13 above shows that the responses came from respondents belonging to different professions ranging from jobless, and students to the members of business community. The bulk of respondents 197; about 39 percent are the students including those who are currently engaged in their educational pursuits at different colleges and the universities in Islamabad. The other two categories with next higher number of respondents comprised of the members from business community and those engaged in different economic activities including religious leadership. The responses received from these two classes are about 15 percent each with 78 and 75 respondents

105 respectively. About 18 percent respondents including 6 percent pursuing their profession with private businesses also offered their feedback. Also the data includes 62 jobless respondents measuring about 12 percent of the total number. The above statistics indicate that the registered responses include perception from different professionals and therefore the rehabilitation policy framework developed based on these responses will have the wider acceptability for successful reconstruction strategy in post conflict environments.

5.1.5 Respondents’ Residence

The respondents were asked to provide information about the area of residence in order to ascertain the impact of conflict on their socioeconomic conditions. Due to socio- security concerns, they were only asked to share their sub-division of residence. The recorded details of respondents‘ residence are shown in Table 14 given below.

Table 14: Respondent’s Residence

Tehsil Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Miranshah 267 53.1 53.1

Mirali 164 32.6 85.7

Razmak 72 14.3 100.0

Total 503 100.0

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The data in table 14 above shows that the respondents belonged to all three sub- divisions of North Waziristan. The most of the respondents 267; about 53 percent of the total came from Miranshah sub-division due to obvious reasons of being the largest and thickly populated area of the agency. Moreover the Miranshah sub-division suffered the most at the hands of terrorists and their accomplices. From Mirali sub-division 164 respondents; making about 37 percent of the total, contributed to the data collection process. The Mirali used to be the second most terrorists‘ infested sub-division and therefore the residents suffered hugly during the period of terrorism driven conflict. The lowest number of respondents about 14 percent numbering 72 of the total sampled population came from Razmak sub-division; a reasonably acceptable figure when considered in terms of the area accessibility, population and sufferings at the hands of

106 terrorists before successful military operation Zarb-e-Azb. The collected data gives an insight of the overall perception of the local community from the agency under study. Therefore the recorded responses can be generalized across the North Waziristan to arrive at a comprehensive rehabilitation framework in the post conflict settings. 5.2 Data Analysis

The results of statistical analysis are the descriptions, the relationships, the comparisons and the predictions (Fink, 1995). The statistical analysis technique is one of the most commonly adopted methods while carrying out different surveys. The technique that has been followed during this chapter have been presented with the help of tables and graphs, and traced back by the relevant discussions. Coming sections of the study has discussed different analytical tests used for data validation.

5.2.1 Normality Test

Normality Test for all dependent and independent variables was carried out by measuring the skewness and kurtosis.

5.2.1.1 Causes of Conflict

Table 15 below gives the Normality Test values for twenty one questions / items surveyed to explore the causes of conflict.

Table 15: Normality Test; Causes of Conflict

Question N Mean Skewness Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Std. Error

Q-1 503 1.9920 1.185 .109 .756 .217

Q-2 503 2.1292 .883 .109 .243 .217

Q-3 503 2.1113 1.120 .109 .638 .217

Q-4 503 2.1312 .956 .109 .342 .217

Q-5 503 2.0656 1.094 .109 .638 .217

Q-6 503 1.8330 1.428 .109 1.259 .217

Q-7 503 2.2485 .745 .109 -.162 .217

107

Q-8 503 2.3757 .771 .109 -.208 .217

Q-9 503 2.0477 1.139 .109 .528 .217

Q-10 503 2.3539 .622 .109 -.399 .217

Q-11 503 2.3181 .670 .109 -.335 .217

Q-12 503 2.4732 .665 .109 -.502 .217

Q-13 503 2.3201 .658 .109 -.543 .217

Q-14 503 2.2883 .680 .109 -.585 .217

Q-15 503 2.3439 .712 .109 -.624 .217

Q-16 503 2.1133 .880 .109 -.363 .217

Q-17 503 1.8588 1.156 .109 1.004 .217

Q-18 503 2.0099 1.139 .109 .927 .217

Q-19 503 1.8807 1.272 .109 .861 .217

Q-20 503 1.8887 1.192 .109 .390 .217

Q-21 503 2.0716 1.194 .109 1.182 .217

Valid N 503

Source: Author‘s Compilation

Table 15 above gives the measured values of both skewness and kurtosis for all twenty one question items surveyed to examine the causes of conflict. The results reflect that measure of skewness for all the items ranges from 0.622 to 1.428, whereas kurtosis for all twenty one items remains between -0.624 to 1.259. The above results conclude that values are within the acceptable limits of normality as the skewness and kurtosis values have been found in confirmatory to the rule of thumb where the measured values should be less than two and seven respectively (West, Finch, and Curan, 1995).

5.2.1.2. Rehabilitation Strategy

Table 16 below gives the Normality Test values for twenty four questions / items surveyed to explore options for post conflict rehabilitation strategy.

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Table 16: Normality Test: Rehabilitation Strategy

Question N Mean Skewness Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Std. Error

Q-22 503 2.2266 .818 .109 -.235 .217

Q-23 503 2.0358 1.175 .109 .616 .217

Q-22 503 2.2604 .842 .109 -.179 .217

Q-25 503 2.2167 1.131 .109 .626 .217

Q-26 503 2.1968 1.208 .109 .757 .217

Q-27 503 2.1650 1.055 .109 .638 .217

Q-28 503 1.9304 1.202 .109 .495 .217

Q-29 503 1.8966 1.435 .109 1.956 .217

Q-30 503 1.9364 1.290 .109 1.439 .217

Q-31 503 1.9284 1.301 .109 .999 .217

Q-32 503 1.9205 1.218 .109 .944 .217

Q-33 503 1.9245 1.332 .109 1.820 .217

Q-34 503 1.8211 1.356 .109 1.053 .217

Q-35 503 1.8191 1.378 .109 1.900 .217

Q-36 503 1.9264 1.486 .109 1.856 .217

Q-37 503 2.0557 1.095 .109 .709 .217

Q-38 503 1.7137 1.523 .109 1.993 .217

Q-39 503 1.9881 1.240 .109 1.221 .217

Q-40 503 2.0179 1.131 .109 .609 .217

Q-41 503 1.8887 1.131 .109 .763 .217

Q-42 503 1.8748 1.278 .109 1.066 .217

Q-43 503 2.0795 1.022 .109 .296 .217

109

Q-44 503 2.0020 .920 .109 .260 .217

Q-45 503 1.7793 1.313 .109 .902 .217

Valid N 503

Source: Author‘s Compilation

Table 16 above gives the measured values of both skewness and kurtosis for all twenty four items surveyed to explore options for rehabilitation strategy. The results indicate that skewness values for all items range from 0.818 to 1.523, whereas measured kurtosis values for all twenty four items remain between -0.235 to 1.993. The above results conclude that values are within the acceptable limits of normality as the skewness and kurtosis values have been found in confirmatory to the rule of thumb where the measured values should be less than two and seven respectively (West, Finch, & Curan, 1995).

5.2.2 Uni-dimensionality Test (Exploratory Factor Analysis)

The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is a statistical procedure that helps in reducing the large number of observed variables to a small number of factors. It also helps to identify the correlation among a group of observed variables and also transforms them into a small number of related factors. During the process consistency of observed variables is also identified through ―factor extraction‖ and ―factor rotation‖. The most commonly used method of factor extraction is the ‗eigenvalue rule‘ or the Kaiser‘s criteria. According to eigenvalue rule, the items having eigenvalue greater than 1 or those explaining 70-80% of total variance should be retained. Scree test can also be used for factor extraction by using Scree plot technique according to which all factors above elbow must be retained (Catell, 1966). Also the Horn‘s parallel analysis can also be applied for factor extraction where the comparison is drawn between the measured eigenvalues and those obtained from Monte Carlo PCA for parallel analysis (Essays, 2003). In this technique the factors whose actual eigenvalues calculated through principal component analysis (PCA) are greater than the values measured from the Monte Carlo PCA are retained for further analysis.

In oblique rotation method ‗correlation between the extracted factors‘ is measured through pattern matrix, structure matrix and component correlation matrix. The pattern matrix shows the pattern loading of regression coefficient of items on each factor while

110 convergent validity is measured by observing high factor loading of converged items. The structure matrix indicates the structure of loadings with discriminant validity assessed by cross loadings. The component correlation matrix suggests the relationship strength between extracted factors and is therefore important for making choice between orthogonal and oblique rotation. In social sciences there always exists certain degree of correlation between different factors therefore reliance on orthogonal rotation analysis may lead to loss of important information if correlation exists between the factors (Costello and Osborne, 2005). The oblique rotation generally produces an idealistic and correct pattern of loadings therefore the researchers should use oblique rotation only (Schmitt, 2011). Therefore it can be concluded exploratory factor analysis will be a useful data analysis tool to confirm the causes of conflict as well as to explore the relationship among observed variables to outline a comprehensive rehabilitation framework in post conflict environments.

5.2.2.1 Causes of Conflict

The respondents were approached to share their feelings about the emergence of terrorism which ultimately lead to the state of conflict. Their perception of different problems of the agency including sociocultural, economic and governance chaos was recorded to develop a thorough understanding of the impasse faced by them during the conflict period. The background knowledge of recorded dimensions in socially engineered Waziristan society is a prerequisite for application of systems thinking approach to suggest appropriate rehabilitation framework (Senge, 2010). The nature of corrective strategy to deal with diverse and complex issues of post conflict rehabilitation of the North Waziristan society can therefore only be outlined once feelings of the local community have been registered. This section gives an insight to the views of the sampled population regarding emergence of terrorism led state of conflict experienced by local community during the recent past. The respondents‘ views about the socioeconomic and politico- administrative conditions of the agency have also been sought to understand their relationship with the emergence of terrorism in the agency. In this regard following research questions have been explored during the course of research.

 Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the terrorism?

 Is there any significant relationship between conflict and the lack of civic services?

 Is there any significant relationship between conflict and poor governance?

111

Twenty one items while exploring the causes of conflict has been subjected to the principal component analysis (PCA) using SPSS. Prior to the execution of principal component analysis (PCA), the data has been analyzed by using following methods to access its suitability for further analysis.

5.2.2.1.1 KMO and Bartlett's Test

According to KMO test explanation given by Kaiser (1974) and Field (2000), the sample is regarded as satisfactory if the measured value of KMO test is more than 0.5 (Kaiser, 1970). The Kaiser Meyer-Olkin value measured for research component of causes of conflict is 0.905 which is well above the minimum recommended value of 0.5 (Kaiser., 1974). Moreover, Bartlett‘s Test of Sphericity which is the measure of multivariate normality reached the statistical significance thereby supporting the factorability of correlation matrix (Bartlett, 1954). The significant value of 0.05 and below reflects that data does not produce an identity matrix and is approximately multivariate normal for further analysis (Pallant, 2013). Table 17 below gives the values of KMO and Bartlett's Tests for causes of conflict.

Table 17: KMO and Bartlett's Test; Causes of Conflict

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .905

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 4951.383

df 210

sig .000

Source: Author‘s Compilation

5.2.2.1.2 Factor Extraction

The most commonly used approach for factor extraction is principal component analysis by using either of the methods namely Kaiser‘s criterion (eigenvalue rule), Scree test or Parallel analysis. The approach involves balancing of two requirements; firstly the need to resolve research problem with as less number of factors as possible and secondly, the requirement to explain as much of variance in original data as possible. It is recommended that a researcher must adopt an exploratory approach while experimenting with number of factors until a satisfactory solution is reached (Field, 2000). Table 18

112 below gives the eigenvalues to analyze the causes of conflict while suggesting an appropriate rehabilitation framework.

Table 18: Factor Extraction; Causes of Conflict

Comp Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Rotation Sums -onent Loadings of Squared Loadings a Total Varian- Cumul- Total Varian- Cumul- Total ce % ative % ce % ative % 1 7.189 34.232 34.232 7.189 34.232 34.232 5.412

2 2.408 11.469 45.700 2.408 11.469 45.700 4.608

3 1.911 9.101 54.801 1.911 9.101 54.801 4.632

4 1.705 8.117 62.919 1.705 8.117 62.919 3.987

5 .824 3.926 66.845

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

a. When components are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to obtain total variance.

Source: Author‘s Compilation

In this research principal component analysis (PCA) has revealed the presence of four different components with eigenvalues exceeding ‗1‘ while explaining the total variance of 62.919 percent. The first eigenvalue explaining 34.232 percent of the variance in original data is measured to 7.189. The second factor eigenvalue is measured to 2.408 and it explains 11.469 percent of variance. Similarly the eigenvalue of third factor is measured to 1.911 counting for 9.101 percent of total variance. The last factor is explained by eigenvalue 1.705 that explains 8.117 percent of total variance. The results obtained have also been tested with the help of Catell‘s (1966) scree test to verify factor‘s extraction. The study of scree plot given as graph 1 below has also revealed a clear break after 4th component thus confirming the results obtained from the eigenvalue rule.

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Graph 1: Extracted Factors; Causes of Conflict

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The number of extracted factors has further been confirmed by the results of parallel analysis which also identified four components with eigenvalues exceeding the corresponding criterion values for a randomly generated data matrix of the same size (21 items × 503 respondents). Table 19 given below indicates the results obtained from parallel analysis.

Table 19: Parallel Analysis; Causes of Conflict

Component # Actual eigenvalue Criterion value from Decision from PCA parallel analysis

1 7.189 1.3775 Accept

2 2.408 1.3103 Accept

3 1.911 1.2629 Accept

4 1.705 1.2228 Accept

5 .824 1.1828 Reject

Source: Author‘s Compilation

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The four-component solution has explained 62.919 percent of total variance with component one contributing 34.232 percent, component two contributing 11.469 percent, component three explaining 9.101 percent and component four contributing 8.117 percent. To complement the explanation of four components, Oblimin rotation from oblique rotation principal (Kim and Mueller, 1994) has also been performed. The rotated solution revealed the presence of simple structure (Thurstone, 1947) with all four components showing strong loadings with conflict on component one, terrorism on component two, lack of civic services on component three and poor governance on component four.

The descriptive analysis has two specific forms of construct validity; convergent validity and discriminant validity. The analysis has concluded that items used in the research have adequate convergent and discriminant validities. The results given in the tables below also reflect that observed pattern of correlation of six items of conflict, five items of terrorism, five items of lack of civic services and five items of poor governance are related to their same constructs. Tables 20 and 21 below respectively give pattern and structure matrix for twenty one items related to the causes of conflict.

Table 20: Pattern Matrix; Causes of Conflict

Question / Component

Item 1 2 3 4

Q-3 .819

Q-5 .807

Q-4 .790

Q-6 .779

Q-2 .773

Q-1 .753

Q-9 .845

Q-8 .840

Q-7 .815

Q-10 .799

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Q-11 .726 .109

Q-20 .796

Q-19 .791

Q-18 .785

Q-21 .769

Q-17 .768

Q-15 -.136 .848

Q-13 .817

Q-16 .139 .678

Q-14 .645

Q-12 .222 .605

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Oblimin with Kaiser Normalization.

Source: Author‘s Compilation

Table 21: Structure Matrix; Causes of Conflict

Question / Component Item 1 2 3 4

Q-4 .823 .300 .345 .395

Q-3 .820 .314 .333 .309

Q-5 .805 .274 .334 .318

Q-1 .788 .322 .340 .351

Q-2 .782 .338 .235 .346

Q-6 .766 .267 .290 .289

Q-9 .307 .839 .321 .156

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Q-10 .312 .826 .390 .205

Q-8 .285 .822 .281 .212

Q-7 .297 .799 .257 .231

Q-11 .310 .768 .390 .201

Q-19 .336 .384 .823 .254

Q-20 .306 .325 .795 .188

Q-18 .310 .308 .793 .262

Q-21 .337 .290 .786 .287

Q-17 .277 .307 .774 .271

Q-15 .227 .154 .276 .810

Q-13 .255 .145 .164 .776

Q-16 .455 .293 .329 .764

Q-12 .469 .267 .236 .694

Q-14 .319 .199 .251 .675

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Oblimin with Kaiser Normalization.

Source: Author‘s Compilation

5.2.2.1.3 Factor Labeling

As suggested by Morgan (2003) the construct dimensions of the factors emerged during factor analysis have been labeled in the same order with conflict as 1st factor followed by civic services, governance and terrorism (Morgan, Zou, Vorhies, and Katsikeas, 2003). The items in table 22 below have also been factored in familiar components with conflict (CT) having items from CT1, to CT6 in 1st group as these move together consistently. Similarly terrorism (TM) with items from TM1, to TM6 is in second cluster followed by lack of civic services (CS) with items CS1, to CS6 in third cluster. The 4th factor of poor governance (PG) comprising five items PG1, to PG5 is in fourth group.

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The items have been numbered and labeled according to respective factor loadings in the same group as given in Table 22 below.

Table 22: Factor Labeling; Causes of Conflict

Factors Factor loading Conflict (CT) CT1 Post Afghan war (1979-1991) settlement of foreign fighters implanted .819 the seeds of conflict CT2 The settler‘s exploitation of local cultural values of Hospitality and .807 Panah infused the elements of conflict CT3 Pakistan‘s policy to support NATO forces during the present Afghan .790 crises triggered the wave of recent conflict CT4 Socioeconomic conditions of the agency have been damaged by the .779 recently experienced conflict CT5 Traditional institution of conflict controlling mechanism ‗Jirga’ has .773 been targeted and rendered ineffective during the conflict CT6 Counter conflict military operations also contributed to the economic .753 setbacks suffered by local inhabitants Terrorism (TM) TM1 Establishment of foreign funded madrassas during the Afghan war .845 (1979-1991) breaded the seeds of terrorism that lead to conflict TM2 Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars subsequently instituted the .840 terrorism born state of conflict TM3 Successive peace agreements made with the terrorists exacerbated the .815 state of ongoing conflict TM4 Lack of formal education served the cause of terrorism consequently .799 breading the conflict TM5 Lacked employment opportunities for local youth contributed to the .726 terrorism induced conflict

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Civic Services (CS)

CS1 Lack of sufficient water and sanitation schemes caused deprivation .796 multiplying the intensity of conflict

CS2 Lack of advanced education facilities indirectly contributed to the .791 phenomenon of conflict

CS3 Absence of technical or skill development centers added to the youth .785 unemployment that consequently promoted conflict

CS4 Non-existent advanced health facilities contributed to the feelings of .769 neglect adding to the conflict

CS5 Insufficient banking facilities coupled with absence of development .768 loans required to engage unemployed youth added to the conflict

Poor Governance (PG) GV1 Outdated traditional politico-administrative system of the agency failed .848 to control the terrorism born conflict GV2 Continuous socioeconomic neglect by successive governments .817 multiplied the terrorism instituted conflict GV3 Absence of concerted development efforts facilitated the inducement of .678 terrorism born conflict

GV4 Absence of effective border control mechanism exacerbated the terrorist .645 activities resulting into conflict

GV5 Politico-administrative system of the agency has been destroyed by the .605 recently experienced conflict

Source: Author‘s Compilation

5.2.2.1.4 Factor Description

 Factor 1- Conflict (CT): This factor has been ranked first in the order and contributes 34.232 percent towards the rated variance. The items that have been loaded under factor - 1 indicate the broad contours of the conflict that emerged in the agency during recent years. The attributes that loaded under this factor include settlement of foreigners, support to NATO forces, the neglect by successive governments, collapse of local values and economic setbacks caused by militancy.

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The factor labeled as conflict is therefore key variable for in-depth understanding of the conflict environments essential for successful rehabilitation strategy.  Factor 2- Terrorism (TM): This second ranked factor measures 11.469 percent of the total variance. The items which contributed towards terrorism in the agency include Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars, establishment of madrassas during Afghan jihad (list of madrassas attached at annexure N), lack of development and absence of requisite formal education facilities. Few other variables loaded under this factor have not been considered under this factor due to values below the acceptable limits.  Factor 3- Lack of Civic Services (CS): This third ranked factor measures 9.101 percent of the total variance. The items have been numbered according to their loadings in the cluster and inquire about the sufficiency of water and sanitation schemes, basic and advance education and health facilities, the presence of technical training facilities and the availability of adequate banking facilities. The analysis of collected data will help in outlining a suitable rehabilitation policy for successful rehabilitation process. The details of existing education and health facilities with very few in functional condition are given at annexure ‗O‘ and annexure ‗P‘ respectively.  Factor 4- Poor Governance (PG): This factor is ranked fourth in the order of loading and accounts for 8.117 percent towards overall variance. The items that contribute to access the poor governance include lack of state efforts for development, inducement of sense of deprivation, outdated system of administration and insufficient local representation in the agency governance. Few other items loaded under this factor have been rejected due to low loading values.

5.2.2.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

Exploratory analysis of the causes of conflict including terrorism, poor governance and feedback regarding inadequacy of basic civic facilities in the area under research provides an in-depth insight to the emergence of conflict. The evidence gathered through statistical analysis of said factors affords needed visibility to identify a whole encompassing rehabilitation strategy in post conflict settings of the North Waziristan. The main dimensions of rehabilitation strategy have emerged from the analysis of data collected to investigate relevant research questions surfaced during the course of literature review and subsequently validated by exploratory analysis of the causes of conflict.

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During the course of research, following questions have been enquired to study post conflict rehabilitation in North Waziristan agency.

 Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social restoration?

 Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and economic recovery?

 Is there any significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and governance reforms?

Twenty four items covering the research dimension of post conflict rehabilitation strategy have been analyzed by using principal component analysis (PCA) method. Before performing the principal component analysis (PCA), the research data has been evaluated by using following methods to judge its adequacy for further analysis.

5.2.2.2.1 KMO and Bartlett's Test

According to KMO test explanation given by Kaiser (1974) and Field (2000), the sample is regarded as satisfactory if the measured value of KMO test is more than 0.5. The Kaiser Meyer-Olkin value measured for research component of rehabilitation strategy is 0.943 which is well above the minimum recommended value of 0.5 (Kaiser., 1974). Moreover, Bartlett‘s Test of Sphericity which is the measure of multivariate normality reached the statistical significance thereby supporting the factorability of correlation matrix (Bartlett, 1954). The significant value of 0.05 and below reflects that data does not produce an identity matrix and is approximately multivariate normal for further analysis (Pallant, 2013). Table 23 below gives the values of KMO and Bartlett's Tests for the research component of rehabilitation strategy.

Table 23: KMO and Bartlett's Test; Rehabilitation Strategy Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .943

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 6216.110

Df 276

Sig .000

Source: Author‘s Compilation 121

5.2.2.2.2 Factor Extraction

The most commonly used approach for factor extraction is the principal component analysis by using either of the methods namely Kaiser‘s criterion (eigenvalue rule), Scree test or Parallel analysis. The approach involves balancing of two requirements; firstly the need to resolve research problem with as less number of factors as possible and secondly, the requirement to explain as much of variance in original data as possible. It is recommended that a researcher must adopt an exploratory approach while experimenting with number of factors until a satisfactory solution is reached (Field, 2000). Table 24 below indicates the eigenvalues measured for rehabilitation component of the research.

Table 24: Factor Extraction; Rehabilitation Strategy

Comp Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Rotation Sums -onent Loadings of Squared Loadings a

Total Varian- Cumul- Total Varian- Cumul- Total ce % ative % ce % ative %

1 9.312 38.800 38.800 9.312 38.800 38.800 7.095

2 2.209 9.204 48.003 2.209 9.204 48.003 5.817

3 1.950 8.123 56.127 1.950 8.123 56.127 5.703

4 1.436 5.985 62.112 1.436 5.985 62.112 6.203

5 .738 3.077 65.189

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

a. When components are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to

obtain total variance.

Source: Author‘s Compilation

In this research principal component analysis (PSA) has revealed the presence of four different components with eigenvalues exceeding ‗1‘ while explaining the total variance of 62.112 percent. The first eigenvalue explaining 38.800 percent of the variance in original data is measured to 9.312. The second factor eigenvalue is measured to 2.209 and it explains 9.204 percent of variance. Similarly the eigenvalue of third factor is

122 measured to 1.950 counting for 8.123 percent of total variance. The last factor is explained by eigenvalue 1.436 that explains 5.985 percent of total variance. The results obtained have also been tested with the help of Catell‘s (1966) scree test to verify factor‘s extraction. The study of scree plot given as graph 2 below has also revealed a clear break after 4th component thus confirming the results obtained from the eigenvalue rule.

Graph 2: Extracted Factors; Rehabilitation Strategy

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The number of extracted factors has further been confirmed by the results of parallel analysis which also identified four components with eigenvalues exceeding the corresponding criterion values for a randomly generated data matrix of the same size (24 items × 503 respondents). Table 25 given below indicates the results obtained from parallel analysis.

Table 25: Parallel Analysis; Rehabilitation Strategy

Component # Actual eigenvalue Criterion value from Decision from PCA parallel analysis

1 9.312 1.4199 Accept

2 2.209 1.3538 Accept

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3 1.950 1.3027 Accept

4 1.436 1.2577 Accept

5 .738 1.140 Reject

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The four-component solution has explained 62.112 percent of total variance with component one contributing 38.800 percent, component two contributing 9.204 percent, component three explaining 8.123 percent and component four contributing 5.985 percent. To complement the explanation of four components, Oblimin rotation from oblique rotation principal (Kim and Mueller, 1994) has also been performed. The rotated solution revealed the presence of simple structure (Thurstone, 1947) with all four components showing strong loadings with rehabilitation framework on component one, economic recovery on component two, social restoration on component three and governance reforms on component four.

The analysis of collected data has confirmed that the items used to explore the research component of the rehabilitation strategy have adequate convergent and discriminant validities. The subsequent results shown in the tables given below also indicate that the observed pattern of correlation of seven items of rehabilitation framework, six items of economic recovery, six items of social restoration and five items of the governance reforms are related to their same constructs. Tables 26 and 27 appended below respectively give pattern and structure matrix for twenty four items related to the rehabilitation strategy.

Table 26: Pattern Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy Question / Item Component

1 2 3 4

Q-5 .810

Q-2 .797

Q-4 .788 .109

Q-1 .778

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Q-6 .772

Q-3 .712 -.108 .152

Q-7 .683 .159

Q-12 .813

Q-11 .806

Q-8 .764

Q-10 .761

Q-9 .742 .101

Q-13 .708 .110

Q-19 .792

Q-18 .788

Q-14 .767

Q-16 .697

Q-17 .108 .661 .134

Q-15 .634

Q-23 .830

Q-21 .786

Q-20 .779

Q-22 .757

Q-24 .741

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Oblimin with Kaiser Normalization. a. Rotation converged in 5 iterations.

Source: Author‘s Compilation

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Table 27: Structure Matrix; Rehabilitation Strategy Question / Component Item 1 2 3 4

RF5 .850 .418 .387 .502

RF4 .838 .347 .416 .534

RF6 .826 .439 .354 .501

RF2 .826 .434 .338 .469

RF7 .768 .473 .344 .475

RF1 .725 .299 .310 .329

RF3 .723 .262 .420 .404

SR5 .353 .807 .318 .277

SR4 .359 .804 .265 .339

SR1 .387 .792 .354 .310

SR2 .407 .786 .311 .393

SR6 .413 .768 .388 .344

SR3 .302 .733 .222 .246

ER6 .335 .279 .781 .341

ER1 .377 .299 .773 .333

ER3 .404 .314 .752 .405

ER5 .265 .244 .748 .308

ER4 .364 .379 .741 .453

ER2 .432 .324 .724 .443

GR1 .460 .327 .430 .813

GR2 .486 .293 .382 .812

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GR4 .409 .281 .355 .802

GR3 .429 .358 .427 .790

GR5 .481 .340 .336 .776

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Oblimin with Kaiser Normalization.

Source: Author‘s Compilation

5.2.2.2.3 Factor Labeling

As suggested by Morgan (2003) the construct dimensions of the factors emerged during the exploratory factor analysis have been labeled in the same order with Rehabilitation Framework as first factor followed by Economic Recovery, Social Restoration and Governance Reforms (Morgan, Zou, Vorhies, and Katsikeas, 2003). The items given in table 28 below have also been factored in familiar components with the rehabilitation framework (RF) consisting of seven items from RF1, to RF7 in first group as these items consistently move together. Similarly the factor social restoration (SR) consisting of six items from SR1 to SR6 is in second cluster followed by economic recovery (ER) comprising of six items from ER1 to ER6 in third cluster. The 4th factor of governance reforms (GR) comprising of five items from GR1 to GR5 is in the fourth group. The items of each factor have been numbered and labeled according to their respective factor loadings in the same group. Table 28 given below shows the labeling of factors discussed above.

Table 28: Factor Labeling; Rehabilitation Strategy

Factors Factor loading Rehabilitation Framework (RF)

RF1 Process of tribal consultation is extremely important for successful .810 execution of post conflict rehabilitation projects

RF2 Social re-integration of the former terrorists is essential to achieve the .797 long term rehabilitation objectives

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RF3 Revival and restoration of local socio-economic conditions will lead to .788 successful post conflict rehabilitation

RF 4 Politico-administrative reforms are necessary to achieve the long term .778 objectives of rehabilitation strategy

RF5 Development of communication infrastructure is imperative for .772 successful post conflict rehabilitation process

RF6 Introducing the trade and business friendly policies are fundamental to .712 the post conflict rehabilitation strategy

RF7 Exploration of the local demographic potential is vital for successful post .683 conflict rehabilitation

Social Restoration (SR)

SR1 Formal de-radicalization programs for ex terrorists are needed to achieve .813 the long term rehabilitation objectives

SR2 Introducing of state sponsored madrassa reforms are essential to check .806 the negative social engineering of the local youth

SR3 Revival of tribal institution of Jirga will help in successful execution of .764 post conflict rehabilitation measures

SR4 Development of civic facilities will lead to creation of social harmony .761 needed for sustained rehabilitation

SR5 Mainstreaming the local youth by providing needed formal and technical .742 education facilities to achieve the long term rehabilitation objectives

SR6 Development of recreational (sports) facilities will help positive social .708 assimilation of the local youth

Economic Recovery (ER)

ER1 Process of post conflict economic recovery can be achieved by exploring .792 the local minerals potential

ER2 Development of minerals trading yard with related technical .788 infrastructure will assist in economic rehabilitation

ER3 Revival of local agro based and dairy industries will contribute to the .767

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economic rehabilitation process

ER4 The establishment of public and private industry will generate .697 employment opportunities for local youth

ER5 Exploring the agency water potential will enhance the local agricultural .661 land required for successful economic rehabilitation

ER6 Extending loans for small businesses projects will facilitate in post .634 conflict economic revival of the TDPs

Governance Reforms (GR)

GR1 FCR based politico-administration system of the agency should be .830 abolished for successful rehabilitation

GR2 Like other settled districts of the country, the system of local .786 governments should be introduced in the agency

GR3 The agency population should also be granted the right of access to .779 country‘s judicial system

GR4 The agency system of law enforcement should be restructured to achieve .757 the objectives of rehabilitation process

GR5 For successful rehabilitation process an effective border control .741 mechanism should be installed to arrest the terrorist movements from Afghanistan

Source: Author‘s Compilation

5.2.2.2.4 Factor Description

 Factor 1- Rehabilitation Framework (RF): This factor has been ranked first in the order and accounts for 38.800 percent towards total rated variance. The items loaded under this factor indicate that a comprehensive rehabilitation framework is needed to address the post conflict problems. The items loaded under this factor included addressing of deprivation, participatory development, socioeconomic restoration, politico-administrative reforms, developing of communication infrastructure, business friendly policies and the employment

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opportunities. The factor labeled as rehabilitation framework will serve as a key variable for further analysis of other dependent dimensions or factors in suggesting policy options for successful post conflict rehabilitation strategy.  Factor 2 - Social Restoration (SR): This factor ranked second in the order of loading contributes about 9.204 percent to overall measured value of total variance. The items loaded under this factor include the need for different civic reforms, need for madrassa reforms, social re-integration, de-radicalization of the former terrorists, restoration of peace through local culture and development of different recreational facilities.  Factor 3- Economic Recovery (ER): This third ranked factor measures 8.123 percent towards total assessed variance. The items loaded under this factor are importance of exploring the agency demographic and water potentials, development of dairy industry, exploring of the mineral resources and the establishment of mining related facilities including trading yard as well as a technical skill development center. Certain additional items loaded under this factor have been discarded due to having values below the acceptable limits.  Factor 4- Governance Reforms (GR): The fourth factor ranked in the order of loading is the governance reforms which shares 5.985 percent in the overall measured value of total variance. The items loaded under this factor include the abolishing of old FCR based system of governance, introducing the system of local government, border monitoring and management, grant of access to judicial system and introducing effective policing system. Few other items loaded in this cluster have been disregarded due to low loading values.

5.2.3 Reliability Test

Reliability and internal consistency of the collected data has been ascertained by measuring Cronbach alpha coefficient. Table 29 below gives reliability statics in terms of Cronbach alpha for factors emerged during factor analysis.

Table 29: Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient Scale Cronbach's Alpha No of Items

 Conflict Component .901 21

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. CT (DV) .887 6

. TM (IV) .870 5

. CS (IV) .854 5

. PG (IV) .802 5

 Rehabilitation Component .930 24

. RF (DV) .903 7

. SR (IV) .873 6

. ER (IV) .849 6

. GR (IV) .860 5

 Total - 45

Source: Author‘s Compilation

For any good scale, total correlation measurements should range between 0.30 and 0.70 (Ferketich, 1991). The rule of thumb has been also endorsed by Nunnally (1994) who believed that Cronbach‘s alpha coefficient values measured greater than 0.60 are adequate. Nunnally (1978) while describing the scale reliability argues that ―the closer Cronbach's alpha is to 1.00, then the more reliable the scale is" (Armstrong and Foley, 2003). The reliability coefficients measured for all variables as shown in Table 29 above exceed the least acceptable value of 0.60 (Nunnally, 1978). Therefore, it is confirmed that the items used in the construct of this scale are consistent and reliable. 5.3 Chapter Summary

This chapter covers two important aspects of the research; firstly, demographic profiling of the respondents and secondly, the descriptive analysis of the collected data. The first section covering demographic profiling gives personal and demographic details of the respondents‘ comprising age, gender, education, profession and sub-division of residence. The analysis of demographic profile reveals that most of the respondents (53 percent) belonging to worst terrorist hit sub-division Miranshah come from age groups between 18 to 35 years (74 percent). The demographic profile analysis also discovers that in male (87 percent) dominated tribal society of the area, maximum number of the

131 respondents (64 percent) either possess or still pursuing their higher education equal or above Matric. The demographic analysis also signifies that recorded perceptions sufficiently reflect the feelings of local population thereby confirming the generalization of conclusions drawn.

The second section of this chapter gives descriptive analysis of collected data to access its normality and reliability for further analysis. Subsequently the data has been subjected to exploratory factor analysis for factors reduction and to access its suitability for further analysis. The results have also revealed that collected data possesses sufficient consistency to validate the assessed causes of conflict and to suggest suitable policy options for successful rehabilitation strategy for post conflict settings in North Waziristan.

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CHAPTER 6

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

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INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

This chapter empirically investigates the hypothesized relationships between conflict and terrorism, poor governance and lack of civic services. The Pearson‘s correlation and Regression analysis have been used to establish the extent to which independent variables of terrorism, poor governance and lack of civic services contribute towards the conflict. Before explaining relationship between dependent variable (conflict) and independent variables terrorism, poor governance and lack of civic services, this chapter gives measured frequencies for each variable. Furthermore, the hypothesized relationship between rehabilitation framework and social restoration, economic frecovery and governance reforms have been tested through multiple regression analysis. All the hypothesized relationships of the study have been tested in this chapter. 6.1 Frequency Analysis

To ascertain the numerical value of responses for each variable, frequency measurement is an important first step towards analysis of quantitative data (Hussey and Hussey, 1997). During the course of analyzing the questionnaire findings, frequency measurement of respondent‘s feedback on forty five different question items has been tabled to explore different dimensions of causes of conflict and rehabilitation. The responses have been measured on 5-point Likert scale ranging from one (strongly agree) to five (strongly disagree) covering different dimensions of the conflict and rehabilitation strategy. The respondents‘ perception has been separately measured for each said dimension through a set of relevant question items. The frequency analysis of feedback regarding dependent and independent variables of both the research dimensions are discussed in the ensuing paragraphs.

6.1.1 Causes of Conflict

The factors of causes of conflict identified during the course of exploratory factor analysis including one depended and three independent variables have been subjected to frequency analysis. The results obtained from the frequency analysis of all dependent and independent variables along with corresponding histograms have been discussed in this section.

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6.1.1.1 Conflict (DV)

There are six different questions which investigated the direct as well as indirect causes of conflict coupled with their socioeconomic and politico-administrative impacts. These question items include the settlement of foreigners, Pakistan‘s support to NATO forces in Afghanistan, continuous neglect by successive governments, collapse of local sociocultural values and role of economic setbacks due to militancy and counter military operations in exacerbating the state of conflict. The overall perception index measured through analysis of collected data validates the application of social engineering theory which resulted into the state of conflict in the area under study. Table 30 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 30: Frequency Analysis; Conflict

Strongly Strongly Conflict (DV) Agree Neutral Disagree Total Agree Disagree

Frequency 207 176 64 29 27 503 Q - 1 Percent 41.2 35.0 12.7 5.8 5.4 100

Q – 2 Frequency 158 199 87 41 18 503

Percent 31.4 39.6 17.3 8.2 3.6 100

Q – 3 Frequency 161 221 54 38 29 503

Percent 32.0 43.9 10.7 7.6 5.8 100

Q – 4 Frequency 167 188 89 33 26 503

Percent 33.2 37.4 17.7 6.6 5.2 100

Q – 5 Frequency 188 177 86 21 31 503

Percent 37.4 35.2 17.1 4.2 6.2 100

Q – 6 Frequency 259 148 41 31 24 503

Percent 51.5 29.4 8.2 6.2 4.8 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

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The recorded perception as indicated in table 30 above shows that almost all of the question statements have been agreed by majority of the respondents. While responding to the question six 80.9 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement which is the highest recorded percentage. The maximum recorded percentage with the disagreement is 13.4 percent which has been measured for third question. The results from variable analysis as given below in graph 3 reflect the overall agreement with measured mean value of 2.04.

Graph 3: Frequency Analysis; Conflict

Source: Author‘s Compilation

6.1.1.2 Terrorism (IV)

This Factor is comprised of five different question items inquiring relationship between terrorism and the state of conflict. The four question items asked from the respondents included the Pakistan‘s involvement in Afghan wars, establishment of madrassas during the Afghan jihad, lack of socioeconomic development and lack of formal education in the North Waziristan. The overall measured perception index validates the application of different social engineering techniques especially settlement of foreigners and establishment of foreign funded madrassas with the strategic objectives to produce fighters to fight communist forces during Afghan Jihad. Table 31 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

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Table 31: Frequency Analysis; Terrorism

Strongly Strongly Terrorism (IV) Agree Neutral Disagree Total Agree Disagree

Frequency 114 191 93 56 49 503 Q – 7 Percent 22.7 38.0 18.5 11.1 9.7 100

Q – 8 Frequency 143 182 78 74 26 503

Percent 28.4 36.2 15.5 14.7 5.2 100

Q – 9 Frequency 162 163 78 71 29 503

Percent 32.2 32.4 15.5 14.1 5.8 100

Q – 10 Frequency 160 164 70 64 45 503

Percent 31.8 32.6 13.9 12.7 8.9 100

Q - 11 Frequency 218 127 71 57 30 503

Percent 43.3 25.2 14.1 11.3 6.0 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The measured response given in table 31 above shows the respondent‘s general agreement with the question statements being investigated. In response to question eleven 68.6 percent respondents generally agreed with the question statement recording highest percentage. The maximum percentage in disagreements has been registered as 21.6 percent in 10th question. The overall analysis of items indicates the respondent‘s trend of general agreement with mean value of 2.27 as given in graph 4 below.

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Graph 4: Frequency Analysis; Terrorism

Source: Author‘s Compilation

6.1.1.3 Lack of Civic Services (IV)

The respondent‘s feedback regarding availability of basic civic facilities in the agency has been recorded with a set of five relevant question statements. The measured response has amply signified that the area is devoid of even basic social amenities including education, technical, health, water and sanitation, and the money lending facilities through banking sector. The explored perception index clearly indicates the state‘s neglect thus allowing the exploitation of under privileged local community by external and internal elements during the past. The question statements included the queries about sufficiency of water and sanitation schemes, basic as well as advanced education and health facilities, availability of technical education facilities, and the availability of money lending facilities through banks. Table 32 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 32: Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services Strongly Strongly Civic Services (IV) Agree Neutral Disagree Total Agree Disagree Frequency 206 209 47 35 6 503 Q – 17 Percent 41.0 41.6 9.3 7.0 1.2 100

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Q – 18 Frequency 167 234 46 42 14 503

Percent 32.2 46.5 9.1 8.3 2.8 100

Q – 19 Frequency 231 177 34 46 15 503

Percent 45.9 35.2 6.8 9.1 3.0 100

Q – 20 Frequency 249 147 36 56 15 503

Percent 49.5 29.2 7.2 11.1 3.0 100

Q – 21 Frequency 145 253 49 36 20 503

Percent 28.8 50.3 9.7 7.2 4.0 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The response from the sampled community has indicated her discontentment over quality as well as quantity of existing civic facilities. The maximum percentage in agreement recorded in 17th question is 82.5 percent whereas highest response recorded in disagreement zone is 14.1 percent in 21st question. The results clearly reflect that the civic facilities both basic and advance are much below the minimum local needs. The overall result show that respondents‘ are in disagreement with the question statements with mean value of 1.94 as shown in the graph 5 below.

Graph 5: Frequency Analysis; Lack of Civic Services

Source: Author‘s Compilation

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6.1.1.4 Poor Governance (IV)

The third factor of poor governance consists of five relevant question statements to explore the relationship between effective governance and the conflict. Four out of five statements explored the impact of outdated agency administrative system, insufficient representations in the agency administration, absence of concerted efforts for development and the resultant sense of deprivation. The feedback confirms the application of social engineering as willing neglect deteriorated the law and order situation in the agency during Afghan wars. Table 33 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 33: Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance

Poor Governance Strongly Strongly Agree Neutral Disagree Total (IV) Agree Disagree

Frequency 144 188 96 52 23 503 Q – 12 Percent 28.6 37.4 19.1 10.3 4.6 100

Q – 13 Frequency 119 205 89 51 39 503

Percent 23.7 40.8 17.7 10.1 7.8 100

Q – 14 Frequency 191 194 49 41 28 503

Percent 38.0 38.6 9.7 8.2 5.6 100

Q – 15 Frequency 120 197 96 68 22 503

Percent 23.9 39.2 19.1 13.5 4.4 100

Q – 16 Frequency 127 198 91 65 22 503

Percent 25.2 39.4 18.1 12.9 4.4 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The measured response reflects the general agreement of respondents with question statements investigated under this factor. The highest percentage in agreement has been recorded in question fifteen as 69.4 percent whereas the highest response recorded in disagreement is 18.8 percent in question sixteen. The overall results however

140 indicate that respondents are in agreement with mean value measuring 2.31 as shown in graph 6 given below.

Graph 6: Frequency Analysis; Poor Governance

Source: Author‘s Compilation

6.1.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

The factors identified during exploratory factors analysis of second research dimension of rehabilitation strategy; including one depended and three independent variables have been subjected to frequency analysis. The results obtained from the frequency analysis of all dependent and independent variables along with corresponding histograms have been discussed in this section.

6.1.2.1 Rehabilitation Framework (DV)

The first factor rehabilitation framework is comprised of seven different question statements investigating the rehabilitation process. These question statements framed to seek popular guidelines for successful rehabilitation strategy include the importance of socioeconomic development, concept of participatory development by consulting the locals while deciding the development projects, use of strong cultural instrument of Jirga during the process, and need for effective politico-administrative reforms. Also certain other important guidelines which may multiply the effectiveness of rehabilitation measures include the development of communication infrastructure to improve connectivity in the agency, introducing of business and trade friendly policies and

141 importance of social re-integration of former terrorists. Table 34 given below shows the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 34: Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework

Rehabilitation Strongly Strongly Agree Neutral Disagree Total Framework (DV) Agree Disagree Frequency 163 178 77 55 30 503 Q – 1 Percent 32.4 35.4 15.3 10.9 6.0 100

Q – 2 Frequency 197 188 52 35 31 503

Percent 39.2 37.4 10.3 7.0 6.2 100

Q – 3 Frequency 131 229 47 73 23 503

Percent 26.0 45.5 9.3 14.5 4.6 100

Q – 4 Frequency 129 248 53 34 39 503

Percent 25.6 49.3 10.5 6.8 7.8 100

Q – 5 Frequency 135 250 47 26 45 503

Percent 26.8 49.7 9.3 5.2 8.9 100

Q – 6 Frequency 141 229 70 35 28 503

Percent 28.0 45.5 13.9 7.0 5.6 100

Q – 7 Frequency 242 145 49 43 24 503

Percent 48.1 28.8 9.7 8.5 4.8 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The response from sampled community indicates the respondents are in agreement with suggested guidelines for post conflict rehabilitation strategy. The maximum registered percentage of agreement is 76.9 percent in question seven whereas the highest percentage in disagreement has been found as 19.1 percent in question three. The overall result shows that the selected sample is in agreement zone with measured mean value of 2.14 as shown in graph 7 below.

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Graph 7: Frequency Analysis; Rehabilitation Framework

Source: Author‘s Compilation

6.1.2.2 Social Restoration (IV)

The third factor of social restoration is composed of six question statements aimed at to seek feedback on important aspect of post conflict social restoration. The question statements investigating this dimension include the need for civic reforms including provision of fundamental social facilities, the most important aspect of madrassa reforms to streamline the madrassa education system, use of pakhtun cultural innate values for social restoration and establishment of peace, assisting TDPs in their re-settlement and finally the need for development of sports facilities. The response recorded on above aspects has largely been found in agreement with the proposed social restoration measures. Table 35 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 35: Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration Economic Recovery Strongly Strongly Agree Neutral Disagree Total (IV) Agree Disagree Frequency 204 209 51 16 23 503 Q – 8 Percent 40.6 41.6 10.1 3.2 4.6 100

Q – 9 Frequency 189 221 46 30 17 503

Percent 37.6 43.9 9.1 6.0 3.4 100

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Q – 10 Frequency 226 170 51 29 27 503

Percent 44.9 33.8 10.1 5.8 5.4 100

Q – 11 Frequency 206 200 42 41 14 503

Percent 41.0 39.8 8.3 8.2 2.8 100

Q – 12 Frequency 189 229 51 22 17 503

Percent 36.6 45.5 10.1 4.4 3.4 100

Q – 13 Frequency 264 136 51 33 19 503

Percent 52.5 27.0 10.1 6.6 3.8 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The overall response shows indicates the respondents‘ strong agreement to the proposed dimensions for post conflict social restoration during the rehabilitation phase. The highest registered percentage of the respondents‘ agreement stands at 82.1 percent for question twelve with maximum disagreement percentage as 11.2 percent in question ten. The overall measured response reflects the respondents‘ strong agreement with question statements with mean value 1.90 as shown in graph 8 below.

Graph 8: Frequency Analysis; Social Restoration

Source: Author‘s Compilation

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6.1.2.3 Economic Recovery (IV)

This second factor is composed of six question statements investigating possible options for post conflict economic recovery. The question statements based on the findings of literature review have been subsequently confirmed through recorded responses obtained during the process of data collection. The question statements include the option for exploration of local natural and water potentials, prospects of developing the dairy industry, development of minerals trading yard and related technical training facilities. The overall response has largely remained in the agreement zone with proposed economic recovery suggestions. Table 36 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 36: Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery

Social Restoration Strongly Strongly Agree Neutral Disagree Total (IV) Agree Disagree

Frequency 221 198 51 20 13 503 Q – 14 Percent 43.9 39.4 10.1 4.0 2.6 100

Q – 15 Frequency 201 216 38 18 30 503

Percent 40.0 42.9 7.6 3.6 6.0 100

Q – 16 Frequency 185 183 85 22 38 503

Percent 36.8 36.4 16.9 4.4 5.6 100

Q – 17 Frequency 268 158 41 25 11 503

Percent 53.3 31.4 8.2 5.0 2.2 100

Q – 18 Frequency 181 218 54 29 21 503

Percent 36.0 43.3 10.7 5.8 4.2 100

Q – 19 Frequency 198 183 63 35 25 503

Percent 39.4 36.4 12.3 7.0 5.0 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The overall response shows the respondents‘ general agreement with proposed measures for post conflict economic recovery during the rehabilitation phase. The highest

145 recorded percentage of agreement stands at 84.7 percent for question seventeen whereas the maximum disagreement percentage is recorded as 12.0 percent in question nineteen. The overall result shows that the selected sample is in agreement with the question statements measured mean value of 1.92 as shown in graph 9 below.

Graph 9: Frequency Analysis; Economic Recovery

Source: Author‘s Compilation

6.1.2.4 Governance Reforms (IV)

The fourth factor of governance reforms is comprised of five different question statements which have been put forth to establish popular dimensions of governance reforms. The question statements include the option to abolish FCR based administrative old system of governance, introducing the system of local governance like settled districts of the country, monitoring and regulating the crossings on Afghan border, granting of access to the country‘s judicial system and the introduction of new policing system to maintain law and order. The response recorded on governance reforms has been found in strong agreement. Table 37 below gives the frequency of respondents‘ feedback.

Table 37: Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms Governance Strongly Strongly Agree Neutral Disagree Total Reforms (IV) Agree Disagree Frequency 216 182 60 35 10 503 Q – 20 Percent 42.9 36.2 11.9 7.0 2.0 100

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Q – 21 Frequency 231 170 53 32 17 503

Percent 45.9 33.8 10.5 6.4 3.4 100

Q – 22 Frequency 173 209 48 54 19 503

Percent 34.4 41.6 9.5 10.7 3.8 100

Q – 23 Frequency 187 188 78 40 10 503

Percent 37.2 37.4 15.5 8.0 2.0 100

Q – 24 Frequency 271 132 51 38 11 503

Percent 53.9 26.2 10.1 7.6 2.2 100

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The overall response indicates that the respondents strongly agree with proposed dimensions of governance reforms during the post conflict environments. The highest percentage of agreement has been recorded in question twenty four as 80.1 percent whereas maximum percentage for disagreement has been measured as 14.5 percent in question twenty two. The measured response indicates that the respondents strongly agree with mean value 1.98 as reflected in the graph 10 given below.

Graph 10: Frequency Analysis; Governance Reforms

Source: Author‘s Compilation

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6.2 Correlation Analysis

The Pearson correlation coefficient between each pair of the independent variable should not be measured more than 0.90 (F, Anderson, Tatham, & Black, 2006). The data is suspected to contain certain serious co-linearity issues if the measured value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient exceeds 0.90 (F, Anderson, Tatham, & Black, 2006).

In order to check the collected data for co-linearity issues, the data has been subjected to Pearson‘s correlation test. The maximum measured values of Pearson‘s correlations for both of the research dimensions have been found well below the defined upper limit of 0.90. The analysis thus rejects any violation of the assumptions of normality, linearity and homoscedasticity in the research data. The analysis also confirms that respective variables significantly contribute towards the state of conflict as well as the rehabilitation strategy. The results obtained from Pearson‘s correlation for both dependent and independent variables of causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy have been discussed in coming paragraphs.

6.2.1 Causes of Conflict

The values of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient for causes of conflict with CT as dependent variable and TM, PG and CS as independent variables are shown in table 38 given below.

Table 38: Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient; Causes of Conflict

CT TM PG CS

CT Pearson Correlation 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

N 503

TM Pearson Correlation .470** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 503 503

PG Pearson Correlation .383** .286** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000

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N 503 503 503

CS Pearson Correlation .410** .350** .421** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000

N 503 503 503 503

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The highest value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient measured in the conflict dimension has been found as r = 0.47 which is between CT and TM whereas the minimum value r = 0.383 has been observed between CT and PG. The Pearson‘s correlation analysis given in above table offers following conclusions.

6.2.1.1 TM - CT Correlation

The Pearson‘s correlation analysis shows that variables CT and TM are strongly and positively correlated in significant terms. The measured correlation coefficient value r = .47, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis that both variables are independent. Therefore it is concluded with confidence of more than 95 percent that observed positive correlation between CT and TM is not due to random effects and both variables are interdependent. The analysis thus sufficiently confirms that the emergence of terrorism driven state of conflict is attributed to the state policies of uncontrolled social engineering which ruined the socioeconomic and politico-administrative systems of the North Waziristan agency. The analysis further indicates that TM has also a significant and positive correlation, p < .05 with PG and CS. The results confirm the role of bad governance as well as the non-availability of basic civic facilities in the emergence of terrorism.

6.2.1.2 PG - CT Correlation

The correlation results reflect that the variables PG and CT bear significant and moderate positive correlation. The value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient as measured through analysis, r = .38, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis which states both the variables are independent. It is therefore deduced with more than 95 percent confidence level that the accessed positive correlation between variables PG and CT is not due to random effects and both are interdependent. The effects of poor governance including the

149 flawed polices of ignoring the socioeconomic development in the agency also contributed to the state of conflict quite significantly. The analysis further indicates that there is also a significant and positive correlation, p < .05 between variables PG viz-a-viz TM and CS.

6.2.1.3 CS - CT Correlation

The Pearson correlation analysis indicates that there is a significant, p < .05 and moderately negative correlation, r = 0.41 between variables CS and CT. The measured significant value of Pearson‘s coefficient rejects the null hypothesis that both the variables are independent. The analysis therefore confirms with more than 95 percent confidence level that negative correlation existing between variables CS and CT is not due to random effect and both variables are interdependent. The analysis further confirms that the absence of requisite civic facilities in the area have also multiplied the intensity of terrorism based conflict. The analysis further indicates that there is a significant but negative correlation, p < .05 between variables CS viz-a-viz TM and PG.

6.2.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

The values of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient measured for rehabilitation strategy with RF as dependent variable and ER, SR and GR as independent variables are shown in table 39 given below.

Table 39: Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient; Rehabilitation Strategy

RF ER SR GR

RF Pearson Correlation 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

N 503

SR Pearson Correlation .505** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000

N 503 503

ER Pearson Correlation .508** .430** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000

N 503 503 503

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GR Pearson Correlation .451** .324** .361** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000

N 503 503 503 503

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Source: Author‘s Compilation

The highest value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient for rehabilitation strategy has been measured as r = .508 between ER and RF whereas the minimum measured value of Pearson‘s coefficient has been found as r = .451 between GR and RF. Following conclusions can be drawn from results of the correlation analysis given in table above.

6.2.2.1 SR - RF Correlation

The Pearson‘s correlation analysis reflects that variables SR and RF have strongly positive and significant correlation, p < .05. The measured value of correlation coefficient r = .50, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis that both variables are independent. Therefore it can be concluded with more than 95 percent confidence level that observed positive correlation between SR and RF is not due to random effects and both variables are interdependent. The analysis also signifies the fundamental role of economic development in the overall context of post conflict rehabilitation. The analysis results further suggest that there is a significantly positive correlation, p < .05 between variables SR viz-a-viz ER and GR.

6.2.2.2 ER - RF Correlation

The correlation results indicate that variables ER and RF bear significant and moderately positive correlation. The value of Pearson‘s correlation coefficient as measured through analysis, r = .50, with p < .05 rejects the null hypothesis which states that both variables are independent. It is therefore deduced with more than 95 percent confidence level that the accessed positive correlation between variables ER and RF is not due to random effects and both are interdependent. The results highlight the need for necessary social development measures especially initiation of de-radicalization process and social rehabilitation for successful post conflict rehabilitation strategy. The analysis further indicates that there is a significantly positive correlation, p < .05 between variables ER viz-a-viz SR and GR.

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6.2.2.3 GR - RF Correlation

The Pearson‘s correlation analysis indicates that there is a significant, p < .05 and strongly positive correlation, r = .45 between variables GR and RF. The measured significant value of Pearson‘s coefficient rejects the null hypothesis that both the variables are independent. Therefore the analysis confirms with more than 95 percent confidence level that positive correlation existing between variables GR and RF is not due to random effects and both variables are interdependent. The statistical analysis highlights the significant role of governance reforms during the process of rehabilitation as the existing system of governance is not only outdated but has almost collapsed due to the state of militancy. Therefore to achieve long term objectives of successful post conflict rehabilitation, the system of governance needs structural reforms. The analysis further indicates that there is a significantly positive correlation, p < .05 between variables GR viz-a-viz SR and ER. 6.3 Hypotheses Testing

6.3.1 Causes of Conflict

6.3.1.1 Alternative Hypotheses

 H1; There is a significant relationship between conflict and terrorism.  H2; There is a significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic services.  H3; There is a significant relationship between conflict and poor governance.

6.3.1.2 Null Hypotheses

 H01; There is no significant relationship between conflict and terrorism.

 H02; There is no significant relationship between conflict and lack of civic services.

 H03; There is no significant relationship between conflict and poor governance.

6.3.1.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion

 Model Summary; Regression model summary is given in table 40 below.

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Table 40: Regression Model Summary; Causes of Conflict

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of the Square Estimate

1 .567a .321 .317 .73034

a. Predictors: (Constant), CS, TM, PG

ANOVA Model; ANOVA model results are given in table 41 below. Table 41: ANOVA Model; Causes of Conflict

ANOVAa

Model Sum of df Mean F Sig. Squares Square

1 Regression 126.043 3 42.014 78.768 .000b

Residual 266.162 499 .533

Total 392.204 502

a. Dependent Variable: CT

b. Predictors: (Constant), CS, TM, PG

 Regression Coefficients; Regression coefficients are given in table 42 below.

Table 42: Regression Coefficients; Causes of Conflict

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig. Coefficients Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) .397 .112 3.542 .000

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TM .356 .042 .341 8.542 .000

PG .175 .036 .198 4.811 .000

CS .224 .045 .207 4.920 .000

a. Dependent Variable: CT

The regression model given at table 40 above shows that measured value of R2 is 0.321 which indicates that three independent variables (TM, PG, CS) explain 32.1 percent of the variance in dependent variable (CT). The value of ‗F‘ statistic 78.768 as shown in table 41 above indicates the overall significant (p = 0) of model.

The un-standardized β value 0.356 for TM as given in table 42 above indicates that for every 100 points change in the value of TM (independent variable), the corresponding change in CT (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 32.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H1 while rejecting the H01, meaning thereby that terrorism has significant relationship with conflict in the agency under study.

Moreover un-standardized β value 0.175 for PG as given in the table 42 above explains that for every 100 points change in the value of PG (independent variable), the corresponding change in CT (dependent variable) is also significantly positive (p = 0) by about 32.1 points. This confirms the acceptance of H2 while rejecting H02 thus indicating that poor governance bears significant relationship with conflict in North Waziristan.

The un-standardized β value 0.224 for CS as given in table 42 above indicates that for every 100 points change in the value of CS (independent variable), the corresponding change in CT (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 32.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H3 while rejecting H03, thereby confirming the presence of significant relationship between lack of civic services and conflict in the agency under investigation.

6.3.2 Rehabilitation Strategy

6.3.2.1 Alternative Hypotheses

 H4; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social restoration.  H5; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and economic recovery.

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 H6; There is a significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and governance reforms.

6.3.2.2 Null Hypotheses

 H04; There is no significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and social restoration.

 H05; There is no significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and economic recovery.

 H06; There is no significant relationship between post conflict rehabilitation and governance reforms.

6.3.2.3 Analysis, Results and Discussion

 Model Summary; Regression model summary is given in Table 43 below.

Table 43: Regression Model Summary; Rehabilitation Strategy

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of Square the Estimate

1 .641a .411 .408 .69997

a. Predictors: (Constant), GR, SR, ER

 ANOVA Model; ANOVA model results are given in table 44 below.

Table 44: ANOVA Model; Rehabilitation Strategy

ANOVAa

Model Sum of df Mean F Sig. Squares Square

1 Regressi 170.648 3 56.883 116.09 .000b on 8

Residual 244.487 499 .490

155

Total 415.135 502

a. Dependent Variable: RF

b. Predictors: (Constant), GR, SR, ER

Regression Coefficients; Regression coefficients are given in table 45 below. Table 45: Regression Coefficients; Rehabilitation Strategy

Coefficientsa

Model Unstandardized Standardized t Sig. Coefficients Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) .366 .100 3.643 .000

SR .335 .043 .301 7.738 .000

ER .333 .045 .289 7.326 .000

GR .252 .038 .250 6.638 .000

a. Dependent Variable: RF

The regression model given at table 43 above shows that the measured value of R2 is 0.411, which indicates that three independent variables (SR, ER, GR) explain 41.1 percent of the variance in dependent variable (RF). The value of ‗F‘ statistic 116.09 as shown in table 44 above reflects that the overall model is significant (p = 0).

The un-standardized β value 0.335 for SR as given in table 45 above indicates that for every 100 points change in the value of SR (independent variable), the corresponding change in RF (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 41.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H4 while rejecting H04 meaning thereby confirming that social restoration has significant relationship with rehabilitation framework in post conflict environments of the agency under study.

The un-standardized standardized β value 0.333 for ER as given in the table 45 above explains that for every 100 points change in the value of ER (independent variable), the corresponding change in RF (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 41.1 points. This confirms the acceptance of H5 while rejecting the H05 thus

156 indicating that economic recovery bears significant relationship with rehabilitation framework for post conflict development of the North Waziristan agency.

The un-standardized β value 0.252 for GR as given in table 45 above indicates that for every 100 points change in the value of GR (independent variable), the corresponding change in RF (dependent variable) is significantly positive (p = 0) by about 41.1 points.

The value confirms the acceptance of H6 while rejecting H06 thereby confirming the existing of significant relationship between governance reforms and rehabilitation framework in the post conflict settings of North Waziristan.

6.3.3 Hypotheses Test

Table 46: Hypotheses Summary

RQs ROs Hypothesis Accepted Rejected

RQ1 RO1 H1 Yes --

RQ2 RO2 H2 Yes -

RQ3 RO3 H3 Yes -

RQ4 RO4 H4 Yes -

RQ5 RO5 H5 Yes -

RQ6 RO6 H6 Yes -

Source: Author‘s Compilation 6.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter covers three important dimensions of the research firstly the frequency analysis of different factors identified through factor analysis, secondly, Pearson‘s correlation analysis of different factors and thirdly, hypotheses testing. The first section gives the frequency distribution for first research dimension of causes of conflict with conflict as dependent variable and terrorism, lack of civic services and poor governance as independent variables. This section also gives the frequency distribution for second research dimension of rehabilitation strategy with rehabilitation framework as dependent and economic recovery, social restoration and governance reforms as independent variables.

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The second section of this chapter gives the results from Pearson‘s correlation analysis to observe any suspected co-linearity problems. However the results have rejected the presence of any co-linearity issue in the collected data thereby verifying its suitability for further analysis. Third section of this chapter gives the results of hypotheses tested for both dimensions of research to include the causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy. The results of regression analysis have rejected the null hypotheses thereby confirming the significant impact of independent variables on dependent variables; conflict and rehabilitation framework, for both research dimensions.

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CHAPTER 7

REHABILITATION FRAMEWORK FOR NORTH WAZIRISTAN

159

REHABILITATION FRAMEWORK FOR NORTH WAZIRISTAN

The investigation of both research dimensions to include causes of conflict and rehabilitation strategy has provided an insight to the quagmire experienced by local population during recent years. The conflict generation has been studied in the context of social engineering theory because the local community has undergone various levels of social engineering at the hands of internal and external actors. During recent past, these actors have been manipulating the local society to promote their strategic objectives in the region. The study of conflict through the lens of social engineering theory has enabled the researcher to develop better understanding of the conflict for suggesting suitable rehabilitation strategy based on system‘s thinking approach.

This chapter recommends appropriate policy options for post conflict rehabilitation of the terrorism ridden North Waziristan. The research commenced with derivation of research statements from literature review followed by respondents‘ feedback on those statements. Subsequently the collected data was analyzed through application of SPSS based research methods for in-depth analysis of popular perception to study the causes of conflict and intended rehabilitation strategy. The result of data analysis has identified terrorism as the root cause of conflict along with poor governance and lack of civic facilities as multipliers. The research after explaining the conflict cycle has measured popular dimensions of proposed rehabilitation strategy. The analysis of observed components to include the social restoration, governance reforms and the economic recovery have consequently offered a comprehensive rehabilitation framework with rehabilitation content and management mechanism. The execution of suggested framework has also been explained during the discussions to make the rehabilitation strategy a whole encompassing.

The framework also explains the necessity of immediate humanitarian assistance and establishment of functional resettlement process starting evolution from conflict to socioeconomic development. The framework further signifies the need of humanitarian and social re-integration assistance, medium to long term investment in human and physical capital, long term socioeconomic development policy and the institutional reforms to stimulate the process of economic rebound for sustained economic growth and poverty reduction.

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7.1 Causes of Conflict

North Waziristan has remained under international geopolitical prism during the cold war when global powers competed to extend their sphere of influence in this region. The radicalization policies initiated during the years of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in early 1980s created Taliban sanctuaries in the area under study. The subsequent establishment of madrassas funded by United States and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia significantly transformed sociocultural structure of the agency (Haq, Khan, and Nuri, 2005). The restructured social environment changed the local power matrix by putting politico-religious leadership; local mullah in driving seat to control tribal youth. The emergence of culture of militancy cannot only be attributed to geostrategic environments of post-communist invasion of Afghanistan. Instead poverty and illiteracy, poor socioeconomic conditions and weak system of governance breaded terrorism with inhabitants living under local code in ‗lawless land of endless feuds and bloodshed where poverty, socioeconomic backwardness and infant mortality percentage are worst in the world (Johnson, 2007). The conditions got further accentuated with the application of various social engineering techniques to meet different foreign policy objectives.

However after a period of relative calmness following withdrawal of communist forces from Afghanistan, the agency again emerged at international geostrategic matrix when United States led military operation toppled the Taliban government in neighbouring Afghanistan. This new development resulted in mass infiltration of Afghan Talibans and their foreign supporters into the North Waziristan and adjoining tribal areas of Pakistan. Taliban militants took sanctuary in the agency for secure command and control, fund raising, recruiting and training for launching operations against collation forces (Johnson, 2007). The events unfolded during the succeeding years pushed the agency into terrorism born state of conflict. The area turned into a crime hell from where the terrorists carried out their atrocious activities not only within the agency boundaries but across the country thereby challenging the writ of the state and destroying public sector infrastructure (Johnson, 2007).

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The research in above historical context has explored the possible causes of conflict experienced in the agency during recent years. The analysis of collected data has confirmed that the absence of basic civic facilities and outdated system of governance of the agency further exacerbated the terrorism induced conflict. Although writ of the state has been re-established through series of successful security operations especially Zarb-e- Azb but no substantial rehabilitation work has yet been initiated. The causes and cycle of conflict as viewed by the locals that have been shared through respondent‘s feedback are given in figures 10 and 11 below.

Figure 10: Model; Causes of conflict

Causes of conflict

CS1 CS5 Lack of Civic CS2 Services (CS) CS4 CS3

Conflict CT1 (CT) CT6co co

CT2 CT5 co co PG1 CT3 PG5 TM1 CT4 co TM5 co PG2

TM2 PG4 1 TM41 PG3 TM3

Poor Governance (PG) Terrorism (TM)

Source; Author‘s Compilation

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Figure 11: Conflict Cycle

Conflict Cycle

Poor

Governance

Multiplier

Direct Cause Terrorism Conflict

Multiplier

Lack of Civic Services

Source; Author‘s Compilation

The model given in figure 8 above shows the locals‘ perception of terrorism led conflict that lasted in the agency for over one decade. The causes of conflict model signify the lead as well as contributory roles of terrorism, poor governance and lack of basic civic facilities. The central component of the model explains direct causes of conflict to include settlement of foreign fighters during the Afghan jihad of 1979-1991 and their exploitation of local cultural values especially Hospitality and Panah followed by Pakistan‘s support to NATO operations in Afghanistan. The component also includes the negative impacts of the conflict like damaged local socioeconomic conditions, the targeting of tribal institution of Jirga and the economic setbacks suffered by locals during the phase of counter terrorism operation. The component of terrorism that constitutes the direct cause of ongoing conflict explains the impact of country‘s involvement in the Afghan wars as well as the establishment of foreign funded madrassas during Afghan jihad (1979-1991). The component also confirms the popular perception about the role of peace agreements reached with terrorists, lack of formal education and the absence of employment opportunities in exacerbating the conflict which ruined the sociocultural, economic and political infrastructure of the agency. 163

The respondents consider the third component of poor governance as conflict multiplier which instead of providing conflict controlling mechanism, conveniently dissipated in the face of terrorism thus allowing the conflict acceleration. This component explains the role of outdated traditional politico-administrative system of the agency, the state of continuous neglect by successive governments, the absence of concerted development efforts and above all the non-existent border control mechanism to check illegal cross border movements from Afghanistan in providing the appetite essential for sustenance of terrorism led conflict. The factor also highlights the destruction of existing politico-administrative system of the agency during the conflict. The fourth factor gives feedback on contributory role played by lack of civic services in exacerbating the conflict. The factor shows that lack of fundamental civic facilities like water and sanitation schemes, advanced education and health facilities as well as the absence of any technical skill development center nourished conflict in the agency. The component also signifies the state negligence in promoting development of private sector thus adding to the unemployment and leaving youth susceptible to terrorist‘s exploitations.

The conflict cycle given at figure 9 amply reveals the popular views regarding origin of conflict that eventually demolished traditional social, economic and political structure of the area. The causes and the cycle of conflict including local‘s preferences for rehabilitation activities will provide guidelines for a popular strategy suiting long term development in peculiar post conflict tribal environments. The rehabilitation framework along with suggested policy options has been discussed in the next section of this chapter. 7.2 Contemporary Rehabilitation Models

In this study the phenomenon of rehabilitation does not imply to ‗criminal justice‘ but in general refers to regenerate psychosocial and economic wellbeing out of the ruins of past. In the perspective of North Waziristan, the rehabilitation means restoring economic and social normalcy with improved system of governance by restructuring the state institutions ruined by ten years of terrorism led conflict. The peace process is a continuous phenomenon aimed at addressing the legacy of conflict thereby bringing the conditions to normal or improved stage (Pyakuryal, Upreiti, and Sharma, 2008). However some scholars argue that smooth transition is required for successful post conflict rehabilitation. This can be made possible only by dismantling the old social, cultural, economic and political barriers and making fresh commitments through an appropriate course of action

164

(Bloomfield, Huysne, and Barnes, 2003). It is almost impossible to garner the long term fruits of rehabilitation without focusing on the context of pre and post conflict problems as necessitated by the system‘s thinking approach. The phases of rehabilitation are extremely important as the success largely depends on the effectiveness of the initiative and strategy pursued during the process. The availability of post conflict rehabilitation models is not only limited but also vary due to their applicability in different socio-demographic conditions and the nature of conflict. In other words the rehabilitation strategy devoid of suitable framework and developed without adhering to the principle of system‘s approach is not geared up to fully address the complex issues of post conflict environments.

The rehabilitation process rarely means the factual replication of pre-conflict conditions because neither desirability nor practicability indicates for the same. This is true as far as the traditionalist tribal societies like North Waziristan are concerned. The rehabilitation covers a wide range of aspects including social and physical infrastructures, commercial systems, and elements of public delivery services especially the security component often need restructuring to deal with post conflict exigencies. Furthermore the concept of post conflict rehabilitation also necessitates the rebuilding of socioeconomic environments including strengthening of the civil administration or governance. One of the important components in rehabilitation planning includes the promotion of public involvement and self-sustaining and capacity enhancing measures for local communities and institutions. There can be two plausible forms of rehabilitation paradigms; firstly, the process being controlled by the bureaucrats and secondly, the people‘s driven approach which is comparatively less resource as well as time consuming process. The implementation of a key integrative component of local - public participation is the best cosmetic measure; as in Bosnia-Herzegovina, geared to social engineering goals such as reintegrating ethnic communities. This indeed is not a top-down perspective but the locals including TDPs and political administration personnel also express the similar views.

Post conflict rehabilitation warrants an appropriate management process which aims at dealing with the past while envisioning bright future by inducing hope and aspiration (Tutu, 1999). This can be achieved by implementing the agreements reached, aptly handling of the conflict memories and guarantying transitional justice and security, extending peace dividend and facilitation for disarmament, demobilizing and reintegration of former terrorists, and reforming the security apparatus and above all undertaking the measures for long term rehabilitation (Upreti, 2008). The rehabilitation process can

165 commence even during the phase when the security situation is yet acutely challenging. The threats to survival may even multiply during the settling down phase of the conflict primarily due to restored freedom of movement and economic activity (UNESCO, 2003). The insecurities caused by limited violence which continues during the initial phases of post conflict rehabilitation do not fully disappear.

7.2.1 Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model

The insurgents more often than not target the development infrastructures to obstruct the course of economic growth. The communities recovering from long drawn conflicts or insurgencies require revival of development process. Therefore the rehabilitation program with post conflict reconstruction and development as key factors is considered as elemental pillar of stability (Upreiti, 2009). The development and violent conflict are inversely related to each other because development failures are likely to create social inequality and discrimination ultimately breading the conflict. The successful rehabilitation and restoration program pursued by the Sri Lankan government after putting off the deadly conflict in Jafna and adjoining areas can be considered in point. The adopted rehabilitation program was indigenized and envisioned by the Task Force constituted under the orders of President ‗Mahinda Rajapaksa‘ during May 2009 well before the elimination of the conflict. The Presidential Task Force adopted following policy guidelines for three pronged rehabilitation strategy ‗Uthuru Vasanthaya‘ (Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, 2009).

 Formulation of Master Plan - ―Uthuru Vasanthaya‖ to facilitate resettlement, development and reconstruction of the northern province  Launching of 180 x Day Accelerated Program to implement rapid resettlement program and the process of early recovery.

The ‗Uthuru Vasanthaya‘ program comprised of following three pronged rehabilitation strateg as given in figure 12 below.

 Providing relief and humanitarian assistance to the resettled people and restoration of basic infrastructure in the cleared area.  Early recovery process to support returnees to recommence their economic activities  Development of much needed major infrastructure and revival of northern region for sustainability and stability.

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Figure 12: Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model

Sri Lankan Rehabilitation Model

Need Presidential Reconstruction Assessment Task Force Monitoring / Rehabilitation Rehabilitation Policy

Uthuru Monitoring Vasanthaya

Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring

Humanitarian Mechanism Socio-economic Assistance development Monitoring  Welfare Centers  Quality of Life  De-radicalization  Growth Initiatives  Connectivity (Six Plus Mode) Resettlement Phase

 Resettlement Policy  Early Recovery

Source; Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, Development and Security, 2009 (Author‘s Compilation; drawn from text)

7.2.1.1 Humanitarian Assistance Phase

The de-radicalization program based on Singapore model comprising ‗Six‘ modes was adopted by the Sri Lankan government. The indigenized rehabilitation strategy was named as ‗Six Plus‘ model by the program developing body. The rehabilitation idea espoused by then Sri Lankan government instituted framework to engage the recipients in following six rehabilitation and community development modes.

 Educational rehabilitation  Vocational rehabilitation  Spiritual and religious rehabilitation  Recreational rehabilitation

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 Psychosocial and Creative therapies  Social, Cultural and Family Rehabilitation  Plus 1; Community Rehabilitation

7.2.1.2 Resettlement Phase

The main objectives of 180x Days Program was aimed at to identify and plan different resettlement phases. A damage assessment team was appointed to assess the extent of damage to ascertain the financial needs. Since the civil administration was undergoing the re-establishment phase therefore the Sri Lankan armed forces being on ground steered and assisted the resettlement process. The policy guidelines envisaged for resettlement phase included following (Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, 2009).

 Voluntary resettlement process  Settlement of IDPs in their original places of habitation  Settlement should be dignified and safe  Sri Lankan Army to be a partner in resettlement  Prior to resettlement IDPs be facilitated for ―go and see visits‖  Provision of housing or assistance of shelter and livelihood development

7.2.1.3 Early Recovery

This phase of humanitarian assistance was aimed at early recovery by extending necessary assistance to initiate the economic cycle. The activities supporting regeneration of economic operations were given special focus by stepping up government interventions to invigorate the livelihood of returnees. The principle of providing grant in cash or kind was adopted to help the resettled families in their engagement of pre displacement economic activities. A program targeting the poorest of poor was launched to give cash for work to rehabilitate the rural infrastructure while creating employment opportunities for poor. The resettlement package given to each returning family included following cash and other items (Presidential Task Force for Resettlement, 2009).

 Six months of dry rations  Initial grant of Rs. 5,000 as part of total Shelter Grant of Rs. 25,000  Land preparation cost of Rs. 4,000 per acre  Non Food Relief Items (NFRI), Core Kits to include mosquito nets, jerry cans, kitchen sets, towels, plastic mats, bed sheets, plastic basins and buckets

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 Additional NFRI on need basis including clothing, coconut scrapers, slippers, food containers, tarpaulin kits; plastic sheets (4m.x5m.), nylon ropes  Hygiene packs as per UNICEF standards  Return tool kits including crow bar, axe, rake, heavy carpenter hammer, shovel, hurricane lamp and jungle knife  Provision of seed paddy at the rate of two bushels per acre per family for two acres  Roofing sheets at the rate of 12x sheets per family  Cement bags at the rate of 8x bags per family

7.2.1.4 Socioeconomic Development Phase

Successful completion of resettlement and early recovery phases put the lives of resettled families on the track of normalcy. Subsequently numerous development projects in following social and economic fields were initiated by securing substantial foreign loans. Following projects were completed during this phase.

 Improving Quality of Life . Health Sector Development in northern province after May 2009 . Provision of shelter . Revival of education . Restoration of water and sanitation . Rehabilitation of electricity network . Path to spiritual development . Restoration of administration  Growth Initiatives . Revival of the fisheries sector . Rehabilitation of the livestock sector . Contribution of the banking sector and the non-banking sector institutions  Connectivity . Rehabilitation of airport, road and railway networks . Rehabilitation of KKS harbour . Revival of transmission tower

7.2.2 FATA Rehabilitation Model

The existing rehabilitation model being practiced in FATA has been conceived and implemented within the bounds of FATA development Plan 2007-15. Although 169 conventional structure of FDA is not designed to handle complex issues of post conflict settings yet the certain important rehabilitation measures are being undertaken to address post conflict issues. The rehabilitation strategy presently functioning in FATA is named as FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy (FSRRS). Main features of the FATA rehabilitation strategy is discussed in following paragraphs.

7.2.2.1 Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU)

The rehabilitation process commenced with the establishment of Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) under the FATA Secretariat notification dated 30th October 2014; scanned copy of the letter is placed at annexure P. The RRU has been tasked to manage the rehabilitation process including monitoring and implementing the return of displaced families and their resettlement plans.

7.2.2.2 Rehabilitation Model

The government launched FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy (FSRRS) on 7th April 2015 for return of TDPs to their respective areas. The adopted strategy is based on the FATA Sustainable Development Plan 2007-2015 and reforms proposed by FATA Reforms Committee (FRC) established to draw roadmap for constitutional, legal and institutional reforms. The strategy has following pillars giving short, medium and long term development objectives (Annual Report RRU, 2015-2016).

Figure13:

Strategic Pillars FATA Reconstruction Model

hysical hysical

nfrastructure

Rehabilitating Rehabilitating i Law Strengthening order and

Expanding government government Expanding delivery service and Reactivating economy strengthening social Strengthening peace and cohesion building

Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 3 Pillar 4 Pillar 5

Source; Annual Report 2015-2016, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU); Building Lives in FATA (Author‘s Compilation; drawn from text)

The model has following five fundamental phases (5 x R‘s) of FATA Sustainable Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Strategy (Unit, 2015).

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 Return of the displaced population  Rehabilitation and reconstruction . Immediate rehabilitation including cash grants . Permanent reconstruction . Citizen losses compensation program  Roadmap for medium to long term socioeconomic development  Reforms: constitutional, legal, structural and institutional  Return from military to civilian control

Figure14: FATA Secretariat Rehabilitation Model

FATA Model

FATA Transfer; Military to Secretariat Civil Control

RRU (FSRRS) Reforms Return of (Constitutional, Legal, TDPs Institutional)

Medium to Long Rehabilitation Socio- Term Planning & Reconstruction economic Development

Source: Annual Report 2015-2016, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU); Building Lives in FATA (Author‘s Compilation; drawn from text) 7.3 Proposed Rehabilitation Strategy

The conflict patterns surfaced during late 20th century have suggested more nuanced conflict transformation models. These models study the conflicts emerging due to social engineering leading to violent or non-violent applications and introducing further social change where hitherto deprived individuals articulate their interests to challenge the

171 existing power structure. The conflicts subsequently require yet another round of social engineering to reverse the process of induced negative change. This cycle of corrective social change entails a comprehensive strategy to affect wide spectrum of conflict components including humanitarian, social, administrative, governance, and economic dimensions. However fragile environments of post conflict societies where rehabilitation and reconstruction priorities are extremely difficult to define create numerous socioeconomic challenges. The application of systems thinking model offers effective solutions to such complexities by suggesting proportionate application of corrective engineering strategies. The system‘s approach states that uni-dimensional rehabilitation strategy will not produce the desired positive social change and instead entails the conception of a comprehensive framework to simultaneously address socioeconomic and politico-administrative causes of the conflict.

The existing socioeconomic development and regulatory framework in the ambit of FATA secretariat as well as the existing institutional arrangements are incompatible with the demands of post conflict exigencies. It is therefore essential to introduce fundamental restructuring of existing framework to meet the popular expectations of economic recovery, social restoration and governance reforms to heal the wounds of conflict for the objective of ‗human security‘. The human security, as defined in the United Nations Report, is the ―safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease and repression and protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily lives‖ (Speth, 1994). The long term objectives of rehabilitation will remain a far cry until vital elements of economic recovery and requisite governance reforms have been instituted rather than confining the concept to social re-integration of handful of former terrorists or vice versa.

The intended framework based on discourse and measured perception index of the sampled community covers socioeconomic dimensions relating to the post conflict environments. The guiding principles for rehabilitation framework should sufficiently bridge social void between the horizontal and vertical inequalities. The framework should also provide a mechanism for sustainable economic development, socially equitable recovery process while institutionalizing the required politico-administrative reforms. The framework should also assist to re-evaluate the suitability of existing policies and regulatory arrangements for necessary corrections accordingly.

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7.3.1 Rehabilitation Dimensions

In the post conflict environments, perceptive rehabilitation process is vital to heal the social wounds to prevent future conflicts. This requires a whole encompassing approach with bold and innovative initiatives. The solutions to the complex socioeconomic challenges of post conflict rehabilitation and sustained development are required to be searched through reflections and open dialogue. This process of dialogue and emanating actions should be taken into account the flashpoints of conflict including lack of civic facilities, poverty, poor governance, and the absence of economic opportunities. The processes of perception measurements and the participatory dialogue are not only essential to find most appropriate solutions to the problems but also to identify fundamental pillars of post conflict rehabilitation framework. These pillars include the importance of economic recovery by exploring local potentials, social restoration including de-radicalization and governance reforms by replacing FCR based governance system. Figure 15 gives mutual relationship among discussed dimensions.

Figure15: Rehabilitation Framework; Popular Dimensions

Popular Dimensions Economic Recovery (ER)

ER6 ER1

ER5 ER2

ER4 ER3

Rehabilitation RF2 Framework (RF) RF7c c

RF1 RF3c RF6c c 3 RF4 GR1 SR6 SR1 RF5c c GR5

SR5 SR2 GR2 GR4 SR4 SR3 GR3

Governance Reforms (GR) Social Restoration (SR) Source; Author‘s Compilation

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The core component of popular dimensions model explains the guiding principles of rehabilitation framework. The key elements highlight the importance of local consultations in defining the rehabilitation projects in post conflict settings. The core component also signifies the social re-integration of former terrorists through comprehensive de-radicalization process. The aspects of socioeconomic revival and politico-administrative reforms along with the need of developing communication infrastructure across the agency have also been identified vital to define the rehabilitation framework. The core component also signifies the role of trade and business friendly policies and need to explore the demographic potentials of the agency. These guiding principles have subsequently assisted in identifying the relationship of other contributory dimensions measured during the course of analysis. The economic recovery dimension is built on seven relevant items indicating the exploration and development of local mining industry, revival of local agricultural and dairy sectors and the establishment of public as well as private sector industries to generate economic activities. The rehabilitation component also measures the impact of exploring the agency water potentials needed to enhance cultivable lands essential for local sustenance as well as extending of loan facility for immediate economic recovery of the resettled families.

The factor of social restoration has been assessed through a set of six relevant questions to incorporate the local feelings. The measured process of social restoration highlights the need of formal de-radicalization of former terrorists to achieve the long term objectives of rehabilitation. The component further highlights the need of madrassa reforms to check the negative social engineering of local youth for different motives. The role of revived tribal institution of Jirga and provision of basic civic services including recreational (sports) facilities has also been identified important during post conflict social restoration. The factor further indicates the need of formal education of the local youth for effective social restoration. The third dimension of post conflict rehabilitation strategy addresses the need for governance reforms to achieve rehabilitation goals. The component based on five relevant items explores and recommends the replacement of FCR base colonial politico-administrative system. The measured dimension also reflects the desire of local population for local government system and the right of access to country‘s judicial system. The factor of governance reforms also highlights the importance of restructured law and order apparatus along with effective border control and monitoring mechanism to achieve the desired objectives of rehabilitation.

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7.3.2 Rehabilitation Framework

Making the post conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction process a success, there is need of insightful planning, political resolve, and involvement of national and international developing agencies. It is significantly important to comprehend the post conflict reconstruction activities in their entirety because piece meal rehabilitation may generate yet another conflict. The challenges confronted in the aftermath of conflict situations mainly include the restoration of peace, the resettlement of temporary displaced persons (TDPs), the restoration of social services and institutions and the revival of economy. In the post conflict environments, the capacities of agency apparatus like politico-administrative institutions and the line departments to include education, health, agriculture, communication infrastructure, and the law enforcement are generally weak therefore require rebuilding. Despite these multidimensional challenges, the government is mostly pre-occupied with the notion to consolidate power through further military means. Nevertheless the need for institutionalizing the effective rehabilitation mechanism with special focus on humanitarian assistance, social reintegration, and economic revival are the pre-requisite for post conflict reconstruction.

The approach to post conflict rehabilitation should be comprehensive in the sense that actions for rehabilitation and reconstruction are essentially required in relief and humanitarian assistance, reintegration, social, economic and political arenas. The actions in one area need to take account of the impact of these actions on the other processes as well as on long term development prospects. A post conflict rehabilitation framework developed through consultation and the local‘s perception measurements is an appropriate instrument for prioritization and guidance. A comparative study of the Sri Lankan and FATA Secretariat rehabilitation and reconstruction programs with the measured popular perception of the sampled community has evolved a whole encompassing rehabilitation framework. The framework is based on two pronged strategy namely the rehabilitation management and rehabilitation content.

7.3.2.1 Rehabilitation Management

The process of rehabilitation management is vital for successful execution of rehabilitation strategy. The suggested rehabilitation management strategy will comprise of following two stages; namely the introduction of interim laws and provisions for

175 implementation of extremely sensitive rehabilitation initiatives and the establishment of policy framing and monitoring body.

 Interim laws and provisions for rehabilitation  Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU)

The existing monitoring mechanism comprising Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) apart from serving as monitoring mechanism, will be required to undertake following responsibilities to ensure smooth and successful execution of post conflict rehabilitation operations.

 Formulation of rehabilitation and reconstruction policy  Damage assessment to ascertain financial requirements  Management and monitoring of rehabilitation and reconstruction process  Consultation with the local tribal elders for defining the rehabilitation projects  Coordination with donor agencies including national and international actors  Coordinating and monitoring de-radicalization and social re-integration activities  Monitoring the returning of TDPs through Return Task Force (RTF)  Monitoring Citizen Loss Compensation Program (flow chart placed at annexure R)

7.3.2.2 Rehabilitation Content

The suggested framework for rehabilitation content will target three distinctive dimensions which have been identified during the perception measurement process. The proposed rehabilitation content will cover following important dimensions for post conflict planning.

 Social Restoration . De-radicalization programs . Immediate humanitarian assistance . Return and resettlement of displaced families . Social re-integration of former terrorists . Community support including livelihood, health, education, water and sanitation  Governance Reforms . Revival of agency Institutions . Restructuring the civil security apparatus

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. Instituting madrassa reforms . Control transfer from military to civil . Installing border control mechanism . Establishment of local governments . Access to country‘s judicial system  Economic Recovery . Rehabilitation of physical infrastructure including roads, bridges and electricity . Exploration of agency potentials to include minerals, water, agriculture, and livestock . Development of mineral related infrastructure including training center and trading yard . Development of industrial infrastructure both in public and private sector

7.3.2.3 Rehabilitation Principles

The understanding of rehabilitation content is important for effective application of the proposed rehabilitation framework. The strategy for implementation of proposed framework has been envisaged to cover different post conflict scenarios. The suggested guiding principles of rehabilitation framework are as under.

 The establishment of De-radicalization centers to organize necessary de- radicalization training for subsequent social re-integration of former terrorists  Resettlement process including the return of TDPs should be planned and executed under effective monitoring and regulating mechanism.  Revival of politico-administrative institutions should be ensured to effectively control the complex social environments in post conflict scenario.  Immediate and essential humanitarian assistance must be ensured before returning of the TDPs and during the early stages of resettlement to meet the basic needs during transition.  Essential socioeconomic assistance must be extended during the restoration phases for improving the quality of life and growth initiatives essential for successful early recovery process.  Restoration of sociocultural institutions especially revival of Jirga; a pre requisite for participatory rehabilitation in North Waziristan must be ensured at priority.

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 Revival and restoration of social facilities including health, education, water and sanitation and other livelihood support systems to stimulate the process of early social recovery.  Restoration of physical infrastructures including buildings, roads, bridges, electricity and other means of connectivity as communication infrastructure plays key role in economic recovery during the intermediate phase of rehabilitation.  Restructuring and reforming of administrative institutions for effective policing in the fragile post conflict environments.  Political reformation by introducing the system of local governments to enhance people‘s participation in the agency political system.  Reconstruction of different socioeconomic infrastructures including markets and both public and private sector industries.  Formulation of policies to mainstream the conflict ridden agency through long term socioeconomic development plans.

7.3.2.4 Rehabilitation Framework

The North Waziristan is among one of the least developed areas of country. The terrorism led conflict created politico-administrative turmoil in the agency thus worsening the already poor socioeconomic conditions. The state decision to destroy the terrorists‘ hideouts from North Waziristan was executed through successful military operation ‗Zarb- e-Azb‘. However the decision of military operation was followed by mass displacement of the locals thus introduced yet another human dimension to the conflict. After restoring normalcy in the agency, there is need for smooth resettlement and rehabilitation of the displaced families. The resettlement of almost entire population of the North Waziristan is an uphill task which requires insightful planning, political will, extensive coordination and the requisite logistic support along with necessary sustenance support to the returning families. Also the execution of socioeconomic initiatives including rebuilding of houses, restocking of the livestock, and cultivation of paddy crops will be of fundamental importance in defining the rehabilitation strategy.

The revival of fragile post conflict economy needs perceptive planning supplemented by an effective implementation mechanism to create conducive environments to kick off the economic development. The rehabilitation phases including resettlement, restoration and reconstruction need parallel planning and implementation

178 strategy including the returning of displaced families. The rehabilitation principles discussed above comprehensively address the different post conflict dimensions and therefore will serve as a guideline for proposed framework to meet the parameters of rehabilitation content and peculiar sociocultural demands of North Waziristan. Figure 16 below graphically explains the proposed rehabilitation framework.

Figure 16: Proposed Rehabilitation Framework

Proposed Framework

Monitoring FATA Reforms FATA SAFRON Secretariat Reforms Committee Policy

FSRRS RRU (Policy Rehabilitated TDP Strategy Agency Camps & Monitoring)

Return Task De- Social Economic Force Radicalization Development Development Phase

Resettle ment Phase Madrassa Transfer to Governance Reforms Civil Control Reforms

Reconstruction Restoration Institutional Phase Revival Phase

Source; Author‘s Compilation

7.3.2.5 Framework Flow

Broad contours of the framework implementation flow as given in figure 8.6 above are as under.

 Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Unit (RRU) will carry out necessary ground survey for rehabilitation policy formulation including damage assessment and

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coordination with the development agencies. The unit will also monitor the rehabilitation flow during all phases including de-radicalization and instituting the governance reforms.  Prior to the commencement of resettlement phase, the returning TDPs will be given essential financial assistance ascertained through Citizen Loss Compensation Program surveys. Before leaving the TDPs camp or de-radicalization centers, complete record of displaced families including de-radicalized individuals will be documented.  The process of returning of TDPs will be monitored by RRU with the help of Returning Task Force. The returning TDPs will be given necessary humanitarian assistance before moving back to their native areas. The humanitarian assistance may be contributed by the government and different domestic or international donor agencies.  After return and resettlement of TDPs the restoration phase will commence with the objectives of revival of different socioeconomic facilities for early recovery. The restoration of different administrative organs will accelerate the rehabilitation process including the revival of law and order institutions to maintain peace and stability. The process will also include instituting the appropriate border control mechanism to check illegal cross border movements.  Prior to the launch of reconstruction phase the process of reforms will be initiated under the supervision of RRU. These reforms will include necessary madrassa reforms to check the negative tendencies of social exploitation of local youth by extremist elements. The process of essential reforms and restructuring the law enforcement agencies will be completed to enhance their effectiveness before transfer of administrative control from armed forces to the civilian component.  The reconstruction will commence after necessary reforms with the objective of steering the resettled community from humanitarian assistance into the phase of self-sustenance. Reconstruction phase will also include different socioeconomic projects to generate post conflict rehabilitation activities.  Parallel to the reconstruction process, governance reforms will be initiated to replace the existing outdated FCR based system with ‗system of local governments‘ as being practiced in other settled areas of the country. Apart from restructuring the administrative institutions, the reforms will introduce community

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and development friendly business and trade policies to accelerate the process of local socioeconomic revolution.  The reformed policies and institutions will consequently lead to a socially and economically developed society. The cycle commencing with the return of TDPs will thus be completed by achieving the long term goals of rehabilitation.

7.3.2.6 Policy Measures

Suggested policy measures for implementation of proposed framework for post conflict rehabilitation content may include following.

7.3.2.6.1 De-Radicalization Phase

The de-radicalization program based on the best practices successfully adopted in Sri Lankan model and the rehabilitation centers functioning in different parts of FATA will offer the best solution. The espoused idea engages the recipients in following rehabilitation modes.

 Educational Rehabilitation: This mode of rehabilitation will impart requisite formal education to the beneficiaries within the de-radicalization centers. The adult beneficiaries may be given informal or the supplementary education for literacy and numeracy skills.

 Vocational Rehabilitation: The vocational trainings keeping in view the interests of beneficiaries and regional occupational prospects may be organized to develop expertise in the fields of traditional crafts and businesses. The recipients may also be given training in different courses including agriculture, motor mechanic, garments, masonry and carpentry. These trainings will gradually develop the confidence among beneficiaries to earn their livelihoods by using personal skills.  Corrective Religious Rehabilitation: Number of beneficiaries will be requiring spiritual reconciliation with their acts of terrorism. They will be required to undergo corrective religious trainings for correct religious perceptions and ideologies. For this purpose special training lectures may be given by renowned religious scholars. The religious rehabilitation during the de-radicalization phase will provide inner reconciliation opportunity to the admitted beneficiaries.  Psychosocial and Creative Therapies: The psychosocial dimension of the rehabilitation phase may include emotional intelligence training, counseling and mentorship training during the de-radicalization phase. The emotional intelligence

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training will help the beneficiaries to learn emotion regulation skills like managing and expression of emotions. The counselor training and mentorship training will reorient the beneficiaries‘ thought process keeping him away from violence and extremism. The beneficiaries may also be imparted creative training including poetry, short stories and booklets related to themes of rehabilitation and development plans (Humanitarian Mission Report, 2009).  Recreational Rehabilitation: The beneficiaries may be provided enough recreational opportunities during the de-radicalization phase. In this regard various sports activities like cricket, football and others relevant to local cultural environments may be organized in de-radicalization centers. The celebration of days of national and religious significance like religious festivals and independence or defence day may be organized with participation of local administration and the community representatives.

7.3.2.6.2 Resettlement Phase

The resettlement process commences with the return of displaced families to their native areas. The revival of economy is instrumental to institute social resettlement and establishing peace in the post conflict environments. The efforts should be made to meet the people‘s immediate needs for effective restoration as most of the resettled persons would prefer to reengage in income generation activities for sustenance of their families. Although social services are the important elements of rehabilitation but access to those might not be sustainable without households‘ earning. The objectives of socioeconomic recovery and corresponding actions vary with post conflict settings but may have the resemblance in socioeconomic structure, the execution methodology and the destruction of social and physical capital. The provision of immediate humanitarian assistance and resettlement of displaced persons are always vital for rapid socioeconomic resettlement. The resettlement phase may include following dimensions.

 Return of TDPs: The process of returning the temporarily displaced families should be voluntary and be carried out in dignified manner. During the process following must be ensured; . The returning process must be sequentially conducted to avoid recidivism. . The process must commence only after de-notification of the area of origin, the agency administration and tribal elders have been taken into confidence and the Return Task Force (RTF) has confirmed their concurrence.

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. TDPs returning from camps and de-radicalization centers should be registered for subsequent humanitarian assistance for early recovery.

 Humanitarian Assistance: The provision of timely and effective humanitarian assistance plays an important role during the process of social restoration and economic recovery. In the conflict ridden areas, provision of humanitarian assistance should be planned beyond merely extending the basic survival assistance including food and temporary shelters mostly given during natural disasters. During the complex conflict related emergencies, the humanitarian assistance should include the provision of social services facilitating the speedy transition from conflict to development, providing the foundation for sustainable development and reducing the risk of future conflicts. This assistance in terms of relief and social services should be provided to the vulnerable households and communities to facilitate the process of social integration. The government even in the early stages of the post conflict situations should evolve strategies for restoration of social services like education, health, water and sanitation, livelihood, housing and agriculture sectors for critical humanitarian assistance essential during socioeconomic reintegration. The essential humanitarian assistance which may be provided for early settlement of TDPs include following.

. Transport cash assistance of Rs. 20000/- per family . One time return cash grant of Rs. 50,000/- per family . Temporary shelter and bedding (tent) . Hygiene Kit (international standards) . Monthly food package (WFP standards) . Livelihood support grants of Rs. 10,000 for six months for each verified family . Child grant of Rs. 5000 after every 3 x months per family with children of ages up to 24 months for 1st year of resettlement . Non Food Relief Items (NFRI) including mosquito nets, jerry cans, kitchen sets, towels, plastic mats, bed sheets, plastic basins and buckets . Additional NFRI on need basis including clothing, food containers, and plastic sheets (4m.x5m.) . Twenty (20) Shelter sheets and cement bags each for each returning family

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7.3.2.6.3 Restoration Phase

The restoration of education and health amenities bring immense socioeconomic benefits to the resettled community. The schools and functioning health facilities are vital community assets that contribute to the rebuilding of social capital. The restoration of services and the employment of health workers and the teachers generates inward flow of funds to jump start the social economy. However the aspect of coordination is extremely essential for usefulness and sustainability of these initiatives to lessen the risks of un- sustainability. The restoration phase mostly targets the social and governance dimensions of the post conflict rehabilitation process. The immediate restoration of civic facilities and revival of administrative institutions are pre-requisite for subsequent reconstruction phase. These measures generate necessary socioeconomic activities; essential for successful transition from humanitarian assistance to self-sustenance phase. The restoration phase may include following post conflict dimensions;

 Revival of civic facilities including education and health centers, water and sanitation systems and other livelihood facilities  Restoration of social institution of Jirga  Revival of administrative institutions  Restructuring of agency law and order apparatus  Revival of transport and housing sectors  Revival of electricity and telecommunication sectors  Instituting border control mechanism

7.3.2.6.4 Reconstruction Phase

The establishment of peace creates the environments conducive for post conflict reconstruction phase. The reconstruction activities mainly focus on economic rebound of the post conflict economy using existing capacity not destroyed by the conflict. The economic rebound is generally led by economic sectors that require minimal new investment to restart like agricultural activities, small scale commerce and transport, housing rehabilitation and banking. State owned industrial enterprises are slow to reopen as the government would not have the resources to make even the minimal rehabilitation investments. However industrial activities related to entertainment goods like soft drinks and cigarettes are often quickly revived due to high demand.

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The reconstruction of physical especially connectivity infrastructure destroyed or damaged by conflict is the leading rehabilitation theme. The reconstruction initiatives create employments and stimulate the economic recovery leading to sustainable growth. However the propensity of undertaking the reconstruction of even non-essential physical structures should be avoided. The process of reconstruction is required to be prioritized while keeping the services and productive activities such as labour requiring main and feeder roads and rehabilitation of social infrastructures like education, health and water and sanitation facilities rather than reconstruction of offices etc. The reconstruction phase may target rebuilding of following damaged socioeconomic and administrative structures;

 Reconstruction of education, health, water and sanitation facilities  Reconstruction of communication infrastructure  Development and revival of industrial infrastructure  Revival and development of the agricultural and livestock industries  Development and revival of minerals industry including technical facilities  Development of dairy and transportation sector

7.3.2.6.5 Reforms; Long Term Rehabilitation

The process of sustained economic reconstruction in post conflict environments can be stimulated through economic reforms freeing the human and physical capital from the fetters of the conflict. In the post conflict settings, the development of medium-term action framework is important to foster appropriate socioeconomic policy through coordinated reform process. The reforms cut across the socioeconomic and politico- administrative institutions embodying the principles of local participation and public empowerment, decentralization, and justice and accountability. The process of economic reforms needs to incorporate the principles of good governance and institutional objectives including reformed implementation mechanism. The existing socioeconomic policies and the political administration are inconsistent with the post conflict demands and therefore need to harmonize itself with the changed environments for successful socioeconomic rehabilitation.

Manufacturing and other large scale industrial activities are slow to restart and therefore may be difficult to be rehabilitated in the immediate aftermath of post conflict situation. The lack of capital due to slow process of external funding and high political risks often limit the development of new socioeconomic and politico-administrative

185 infrastructures. However with the contributions from national and international developing agencies the reconstruction efforts gather steam to further socioeconomic development beyond the emergency period. For long term rehabilitation and reconstruction, a futuristic planning may be carried out in following development dimensions;

 Reformation of the agency politico-administrative system  Introducing trade and business friendly policies  Instituting local government system like other settled districts  Introducing judicial reforms allowing access to top judiciary  Exploring agency potentials including minerals, agriculture and livestock  Construction of small dams and water reservoirs  Development of public and private sector industries  Socioeconomic development initiatives with the help of national and international development agencies 7.4 Chapter Summary

This chapter has identified certain building blocks of the rehabilitation phenomenon. The chapter discusses two important research dimensions including perceived causes of conflict and proposed rehabilitation framework. First section of the chapter gives a brief account of the measured popular perception about the causes of conflict. The respondents‘ feedback explains the terrorism as the root cause of the conflict which has been intensified by other supporting factors. The aspects of poor governance and absence of fundamental civic facilities have been identified as the conflict multipliers. Based on the discussed popular feedback the graphical layout of the conflict has also been drawn. The second section of this chapter deals with the post conflict rehabilitation strategy. Before suggesting comprehensive rehabilitation and reconstruction frame work, the existing rehabilitation models practiced in Sri Lanka and being followed in FATA have been discussed to identify the best practices. The subsequent analysis has proposed a comprehensive rehabilitation framework including rehabilitation management and monitoring mechanism followed by graphical representation of the implementation flow. Towards the end this chapter has also enlisted important policy recommendations including measures to achieve long term development goals and instituting proposed rehabilitation framework in the post conflict tribal environments of North Waziristan.

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CHAPTER 8

CONCLUSION

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CONCLUSION

8.1 Conclusion

Ever since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the socioeconomic conditions in the North Waziristan had remained affixed with the Afghanistan‘s internal situation. The successive generations of the agency population have been brought up in the social environments of arms and bullets. These community members have passed through the phases of such a bloodshed which had never been witnessed by their elders. The traditional tribal self-esteem, dignity, communal pride, and civilization‘s wealth have vanished during the recent years of militancy. It is not only the underprivileged local youth of the agency which is responsible for these socioeconomic degeneration, but the bulk of the blame is attributable to national and international actors who along with the extremist components of the society played their strategic chess games in this area.

The poor socioeconomic conditions, the opportunities for seeking of rents and the administrative corruptions pushed the agency youth into the arms of militancy. Uneducated and unemployed local population mostly coming from youth was particularly enticed by the operating terrorist outfits; thus luring them into the militant groups for earning the livelihood and improving their economic status. The population that neither had been engaged in activities of cultivating poppy crops nor did hold arable lands and even could not afford the migration expenses within Pakistan or abroad also joined the terrorist outfits for their sustenance. The sense of economic dispossession had been playing an important role in making the people to join the terrorist organizations. Griswold argues that in the areas where employment opportunities do not exist, the influence of militants is generally based on money usage (Griswold, 2004). The absence of appropriate economic incentives for the local youth, the probability of insurgency on various pretexts cannot be over-ruled. In ‗The Bottom Billion; Why the Poorest Countries are failing and what can be done about it‘ Collier observes that the low incomes reflect poverty and the low growth results hopelessness (Collier, 2007). The youth who had mostly contributed the terrorist human resource were recruited quite cheaply due to the environments of hopelessness and poverty. Taliban fighters used to earn about U.S $ 300.00 that was pretty attractive amount for an unemployed tribal youth (Y. Akhunzada, personal communication, October 7, 2016). Collier (2007) observes that if the truth of subsistence is otherwise dreadful, the odds of triumph do not have to be very high to be alluring, and

188 the prospects of death are not so worse than prospects of life in poverty. He also argues that ―in the absence of economic development, neither good political institution, nor ethnic and religious homogeneity, nor do high military spending provide significant defence against large scale violence‖ (Collier and Havard Hegre, 2003). The recently experienced terrorism born conflict can only be controlled effectively by nurturing socioeconomic growth especially with bottom up approach. Griswold (2004) quotes Khalid Wazir saying ―the development will undermine the authority of radicals by demonstrating to the tribesmen, that they needn‘t rely blindly on mullahs for their subsistence‖.

The post conflict societies experience strong socioeconomic recoil that can be transformed into continued socioeconomic rehabilitation with necessary humanitarian aid including survival assistance, immediate and permanent settlement of temporary displaced families, followed by social reintegration of the ex-combatants. The social reintegration would include the provision of permanent shelter and necessary help for re-engagement in economic generation initiatives. During the early stages of post conflict restoration, the emphasis on agriculture including provision of the farming equipment and the seeds, restocking of the livestock, and reconstruction of the feeder roads and the civic facilities in the rural areas, will accelerate the recovery process of the socioeconomics. During the early phases of rehabilitation process the emphasis on agricultural sector and the small scale enterprises helps to jump start the social restoration and the poverty diminution.

Moreover in the post conflict scenario the lasting peace, sustained economic growth and reduction of poverty, require governance reforms to enhance institutional efficiency. The reforms including the political administration, law and order enforcement and the social services would be required to deal with the post conflict situations. Decentralizing the process of economic decision making, introducing the accountability for use of public resources are the main parameters of good governance. Reformation of the security apparatus especially the agency administrative forces is a pre-requisite for good governance and maintenance of peace. More recently the good governance, social restoration and economic recovery have become the pillars of the 21st century post conflict rehabilitation strategies. Therefore the dimension of social participation, sharing of economic growth, emphasis on civic facilities, institution building and restructuring will play fundamental role in the emerging post conflict rehabilitation paradigms.

North Waziristan is full of socioeconomic resources awaiting correct rehabilitation strategy to optimize their potentials. The agency landmass with healthy and temperate

189 climate offers most conducive environment for business activities to flourish. The water sources flowing through the agency offer numerous sites for construction small dams and water retaining structures to develop agrarian industry by adding to cultivable lands. The agency also holds large quantity of unexplored precious minerals like Gold, Copper, Oil and Gas with huge economic potentials to transform the existing poor socioeconomic conditions of local communities. The proposed rehabilitation framework based on perceptive planning and dynamic execution mechanism can optimally assist in the development of mentioned sectors to revolutionize the socioeconomic fortune of the conflict ridden North Waziristan for a better and peaceful region with focus on human development. 8.2 Future Research

The research while endorsing the significance of socioeconomic restoration and reforms process has concluded few important policy preferences. These rehabilitation preferences may require further studies by future researchers to investigate various socioeconomic dimensions for development of traditionally conservative societies of the Pakistan‘s FATA region especially the Waziristan agencies; both North and South Waziristan, due to their history for armed struggles. The preferred dimensions for future research may include following.

 Revival of the social capital in the under developed agencies of the tribal region especially the militancy hit areas.  Restoration of social facilities including education, health, agriculture and livestock sectors to create the environments for long-term socioeconomic sustenance.  Instituting reforms; socioeconomic and governance, to sociopolitical harness the tribal agencies in the national mainstream.  Long-term economic wellbeing plans including the development of local mining industry to create an economically vibrant social capital.  Reconstruction of education and technical training facilities to develop a healthy and informed youth that is less susceptible for negative social engineering.

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8.3 Possible Limitations

Any research project in the tribal areas of Pakistan especially North Waziristan will have an inbuilt limitation of inaccessibility, with very little known about its people, their culture and tribal codes and laws. Due to traditionalist society most of the researchers may find very little information about what is happening in the area, how big a threat the area can pose, how the problem of security and obtaining of information will be tackled and what possible options will be available to counter threats peculiar in the environments of post conflict societies. Most importantly, the area being a virtual battlefield might not be very conducive for extensive fieldwork, if not impossible. Another challenge to the future research might be the difficulty of conducting solid empirical analysis based on reliable data and dealing with the local communities. However, the researchers may conveniently access the subject experts, practitioners, and policy makers; settled in the safe zones, for insightful discussions to develop better understanding of the future research problems peculiar to tribal societies like North Waziristan.

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Annexure A AGENCY GEOGRAPHIC LAYOUT

24 Km

Kurram Agency

Tehsil Shewa Kuram Kurram River River T Thal Tanda Kas Maismoon 180 Km A F G H A N I S T A N Teh Kaitu River Khel 13 Km sil Shew A Spi a Kaito River Bangidar nwa F Kaitu G m H Ghulam Khan Zara Mella A GHULAM Sar N Danda KHAN I Newly Opened Area Saidgi Miranshah Macha(PhaseII 10 km) (PhaseI 15 km) Kajuri S Madda Khel Mohd ISha Barmand Tochi River Tochi River 75 Km T Inzer Kas IDAK Khel daur A Doga MiraliIppi Lawara Ghazlamai Sema khel N AssarAssar Spulg Idar Baba Datta Khel n F.R Bannu a Khel Zairat BABA ZIARAT Maizar Mama Ziarat Mama D D Maizar Dossali Karkarwam ZiaratShatghal Gorvak ai Nowsher Ghardai (PhaseI 25 km) Fort Garyum (Phase-II) Miradin MiradinGurbaz Razmak 98 Km Shawali (16 km) (8 km) Mana Tauda Drey Nashtar Pash China Newly Opened ziarat Area Shawal Legend South Waziristan Headquarter Sub-Division Tehsil River Newly Opened Are Sub-Division Boundary

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

206

Annexure B MINERALS MAP

Source: Mineral concession cell FATA secretariat and Agency Archives.

Source: Minerals Development Plan - NWA, 2013.

207

Annexure C IMPORTANT POPULATION CENTERS

Serial Village Approximate Houses 1. Muhammad Khel 1000 2. Syed Abad 500 3. Khatti Killi 150 4. Ghazimai 100 5. Muhammad Khel 150 6. Haider Khel 500 7. Hurmaz 300 8. Maza Ziarat 100 9. Baba Ziarat 70 10. Ter Tangi 100 11. Khar Tangi 30 12 Arang Zhawar 60 13. Dabbar 50 14. Sekho Khel 50 15. Ismail Khel 120 16. Maidan 40 17. Zangotai 150 18. Wuzghai 30 19. Ghazlamai 30 20. Matrai 25 21. Ghala Maskay 10 22. Musaki 250 23. Hussu Khel 500 24. Naurak 350 25. Spalgha 250 26. Ali Khel 100

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

208

Annexure D POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

209

Annexure E CONNECTIVITY INFRASTRUCTURE

Length Width Serial Route Name Surface Condition (Kilometer) (Meter)

Bannu-Miranshah-Ghulam 1. 69 5-6 Black top Khan

3. Bannu - Isha -Razmak 115 4-5 Black top

3. Mirali- Spinwam - Thal 58 4 Black top

4. Miranshah-Ghulam Khan 18 4 Black top

Mirali- Bichi- Khushali - 5. 80 4-5 Black top Razmak

Mana - Gurbaz - Dabbar- 6. 27 3-4 Black top Dre nashtar

7. Dosalli - Garyum 27 5 Black top

8. Miranshah - Darduni 4 4-5 Black top

Miranshah-Datta Khel - Black top and 9. 65 4-5 Shirani Shingled track

Black top and 10. Saidgai-Miranshah 54 4-5 Shingled track

Black top and 11. Khar Kamar- Barmand 11 4 Shingled track

Datta Khel - Tut Narai – 12. 29 4-5 Shingled track Gardai Rogha

Razmak - Pash Ziarat - 13. 22 3-4 Shingled track Mana

Gurbaz - Mera Din - Zoe 14. 16 3-4 Shingled track Narai

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Length Width Serial Route Name Surface Condition (Kilometer) (Meter)

15. Dabbar – Mangrotai 9 3-4 Shingled track

Gurbaz - Mera Din - Dwa Shingled track 16. 31 4 Toi

Mana - Shatghalai - Datta Shingled track 17. 29 4-5 Khel

18. Tut Narai - Degan 12 3-4 Shingled track

Datta Khel - Assar - Shingled track 19. 28 3-4 Alwara Mandi

Trimora - Assar - Alwara Shingled track 20. 16 3-4 Mandi

21. Faqiran - Barmand 22 4-5 Shingled track

22. Barmand - Memon Punga 13.5 4-5 Shingled track

23. Gharlamai - Alwara 17 4 Shingled track

24. Wucha Bibi - Admi Kot 10 3-4 Shingled track

Wucha Bibi - Shwai 25. 13 3-4 Shingled track Kashai

26. Gharlamai – Mangaseen 8 3-4 Shingled track

Naurak - Machi Khel – 27. 48 3-4 Shingled track Bangidar

Miranshah - Marsi Khel - 28. 36 4 Shingled track Zara Mela

30. Tal – Boya 30 4-5 Kacha track

31. Tal Spulga - Khushali 13 5-4 Kacha track

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

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Annexure F GENEALOGY OF UTMANZAI WAZIRS

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

212

Annexure G GENEALOGY OF DAWARS

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

213

Annexure H EMINENT ELDERS

Serial Name 1. Malik Nasrullah Khan Wazir - Chief of Waziristan Tribes Tehsil Miranshah .2. Malik Mumtaz Daur; Miranshah 3. Malik Abdul Qadoos Daur; Miranshah 4. Malik Mohammad Noor Din Daur; Darpa Khel 5. Malik Mir Qadar Daur; Darpa Khel 6. Malik Abdul Jabar Daur; Darpa Khel 7. Malik Rabnawaz Daur; Tappi 8. Malik Mohammad Sher Daur; Hamzoni 9. Malik Darya Jan Wazir; Anghar Killa 10. Malik Shah Jehan Wazir; Bora Khel 11. Malik Saifullah Jan Spulga; Tori Khel 12. Malik Sardar Naimatullah; Spulga Tori Khel 13. Pir Aqal Zuman; Pir Killi 14. Malik Shareen Akbar Daur; Miranshah 15. Malik Mohammad Noor Jan Daur; Miranshah 16. Malik Noor Jan Daur; Miranshah 17. Malik Ijaz Daur; Miranshah 18. Malik Laiq Shah Daur; Darpa Khel 19. Malik Habibullah Daur; Darpa Khel 20. Malik Akhtar Jan Daur; Darpa Khel 21. Malik Abdul Qadar Daur; Darpa Khel 22. Malik Amanullah Jan Daur; Darpa Khel 23. Malik Noor Rehman Daur; Tappi 24. Malik Niaz Khan Daur; Tappi 25. Malik Akber Zuman Daur; Hamzoni 26. Malik Khan Marjan Daur; Hamzoni 27. Malik Afsar Khan Daur; Hamzoni

214

Serial Name 29. Malik Sarfraz Daur; Hamzoni 30. Malik Hameed Ur Rehman Daur; Hamzoni 31. Malik Akber Khan Bora Khel; Tool Khel 32. Malik Shazada Bora Khel 33. Malik Zar Wali Datta Khel Bora Khel 34. Haji Rehman Bora Khel; Tool Khel 35. Haji Remal Bora Khel 36. Malik Amanullah Tori Khel; Spulga 37. Malik Gul Rehmat Tori Khel; Spulga 38. Malik Badshah Mir Khan Tori Khel; Spulga 39. Malik Arbab Tori Khel; Spulga 40. Malik Sikandar Tori Khel; Spulga 41. Haji Mir Daray Khan Daur; Darpa Khel 42. Malik Sarfraz Daur; Tappi 43. Malik Behram Khan Daur; Tappi 44. Malik Akber Khan Tori Khel; Spulga 45. Malik Noor Afzal Daur; Miranshah 46. Malaik Shah Fayaz Daur; Miranshah 47. Malik Ismaeel Daur; Hamzoni Tehsil Datta Khel 48. Malik Kamran Khan Madda Khel 49. Malik Sheryar Madda Khel 50. Malik Naeem Khan Madda Khan 51. Malik Nek Daraz Madda Khel 52. Dr. Zakeem Madda Khel 53. Malik Abdul Qayum Madda Khel 54. Malik Sadiqullah Daur Mohammad Khel 55. Malik Mushtaq Khadder Khel 56. Malik Ghani Khadder Khel 57. Malik Adram Khadder Khel 58. Malik Yarma Jan Khadder Khel

215

Serial Name 60. Malik Faqir Mehtar Kani Rogha Manzar Khel 61. Malik Mehmood Mami Rogha Manzar Khel 62. Ahmed Gul Kani Rogha Manzar Khel 63. Shera Jan Madda Khel 64. Subedar Mirjanat Khan Madda Khel 65. Malik Gul Amir Ismaeel Khel Madda Khel 66. Malik Mohammad Amir Assar Madda Khel 67. Malik Umer Jan Madda Khel 68. Mr Mashayer Madda Khel 69. Malik Atlas Madda Khel 70. Malik Gulop Madda Khel 71, Malik Mohammad Salam Madda Khel 72. Malik Dolat Khan Madda Khel 73. Malik Dari Madda Khel 74. Malik Ali Shah Madda Khel 75. Malik Gulzar Daur Eidal Khel 76. Mr Noor Hassan Daur Degan 77. Malik Khanzeb Daur Mohammad Khel 78. Malik Taj Mohammad Daur Mohammad Khel 79. Mr Mir Nawaz Daur Mohammad Khel 80. Malik Mama Khan Ghazlami Pir 81. Mr Awal Khan Pai Khel 82. Mr Bakhtyar Zoi Saidgai 83. Malik Usman Daur Land 84. Malik Urangzeb Daur Land 85. Malik Said Shah Daur Boya Tehsil Ghulam Khan 86. Malik Masher Wazir Tabbi Bora Khel 87. Malik Mohammad Yaqoob Khan Gurbaz 88. Malik Haji Mohammad Danday Saidgi 89. Mr Khyal Mar Jan Danday Saidgi

216

Serial Name 91. Malik Ama Jan Loli Faqiran 92. Molvi Sayeed Mar Jan Loli Faqiran 93. Haji Moman Khan Saidgi 94. Mr Sabir Din Gurbaz 95. Malik Behram Khan Gurbaz 96. Mr Mughal Khan Bora Khel Tabi Wal 97. Malik Daraz Khan Bora Khel Tabi Wal 98. Malik Akber Khan Sarak Danday Dirdoni 99. Malik Tasleem Bora Khel Tabi Wal 100. Mr Mohabat Khan Bora Khel Tabi Wal 101. Malik Hanif Gurbaz Sher Khel 102. Malik Darjay Tabi Wali Tehsil Mirali 103. Malik Mir Sharoof Khan Daur Haider Khel 104. Malik Nawab Mir Khon Khel Tori Khel 105. Malik Noor Sadey Khan Hassu Khel 106. Malik Mohammad Haleem Daur Zeraki 107. Malik Wakeel Khan Daur Khaddi 108. Malik Sadiqullah Toor Daur Eidak 109. Malik Khan Mar Jan Anghar Killa Dirdoni 110. Malik Shad Amin Khushali Tori Khel 111. Malik Mohammad Noor Khan Daur Haider Khel 112. Malik Anwar Beg Daur Haider Khel 113. Malik Sarwar Khan Daur Haider Khel 114. Malik Rehmatullah Daur Haider Khel 115. Mr Sattar Khan Daur Eppi 116. Malik Sherullah Daur Haider Khel 117. Engineer Abdul Qayum Khan Daur Haider Khel 118. Malik Dilnawaz Daur Mossaki 119. Malik Amanullah Daur Hassu Khel 120. Malik Abdul Munim Daur Hurmaz

217

Serial Name 122. Malik Sadem Daur Issori 123. Malik Ahmed-ud-Din Daur Issori 124. Malik Haqnawaz Daur Zeraki 125. Malik Badshah Mir Khan Daur Khaddi 126. Malik Noor Wali Khan Daur Khaddi 127. Malik Mirnawaz Daur Eidak 128. Malik Latif Khan Daur Eidak 129. Pir Abdul Hameed Shah Daur Eidak 130. Malik Skindar Daur Mubarkshahi 131. Malik Said Hassan Daur Mubarkshahi 132. Malik Gul Daraz Khan Mirali Tori Khel 133. Malik Gul Nawaz Madi Khel Tori Khel 134. Malik Sher Ayub Khushahli Tori Khel 135. Malik Aslam Khushahli Tori Khel 136. Malik Ahmed Jan Khushahli Tori Khel 137. Malik Zuman Ali Khel Tori Khel 138. Malik Rais Khan Zarini Tori Khel 139. Malik Nawab Khan Marsi Khel Bora Khel 140. Malik Remal Khan Marsi Khel Bora Khel 141. Malik Khan Mohammad Marsi Khel Bora Khel 142. Mr Shamour Bora Khel 143. Malik Arbab Khushahli 144. Malik Atta Ur Rehman Khaddi 145. Malik Mehmood Hassu Khel 146. Malik Akram Khan Kushahli 147. Malik Gul Jamat Zaker Khel Tori Khel Tehsil Spinwam 148. Malik Shandi Gul Shamiri Tori Khel 149. Malik Faqir Niamat Hassan Khel 150. Malik Shabal Khan Hassan Khel 151. Malik Badshah Zarjan Hassan Khel

218

Serial Name 153. Malik Akber Khan Mirali Tori Khel 154. Malik Gul Jamat Khan Datta Khel Tori Khel 155. Malik Akram Khan Bobali Tori Khel 156. Malik Shaizal Mirali Tori Khel 157. Malik Bahadar Khan Sheratala Tori Khel Tehsil Shewa 158. Malik Shah Jehan Miami Kabul Khel 159. Malik Abdul Qadar Saifali Kabul Khel 160. Malik Abdul Qadoos Malik Shahi Kabul Khel 161. Malik Sher Ali Khan Saifali Kabul Khel 162. Malik Sarmast Khan Saifali Kabul Khel 163. Malik Muzamil Saifali Kabul Khel 164. Malik Wali Khan Saifali Kabul Khel 165. Malik Nawab Khan Malik Shahi Kabul Khel 166. Malik Shalam Khan Malik Shahi Kabul Khel 167. Malik Pir Khan Kabul Khel 168. Malik Berai Kabul Khel Tehsil Razmak 169. Malik Rehim Khan Khushali Tori Khel 170. Malik Gul Wali Khan Shogi Tori Khel 171. Malik Mohammad Qasim Khushali Tori Khel 172. Malik Mohammad Anwar Khushali Tori Khel 173. Mr Barkat Shah Khushali Tori Khel 174. Malik Izat Nekbal Shogi Tori Khel 175. Malik Ghazu Khan Shogi Tori Khel 176. Malik Shamali Khan Shogi Tori Khel 177. Malik Mohammad Jan Shogi Tori Khel 178. Mr Mohammad Rahim Shogi Tori Khel 179. Mr Shah Mehmood Khakhimar Tori Khel 180. Mr Atta Mohammad Mir Khoon Khel Bora Khel 181. Mr Ghaffar Khan Tori Khel

219

Serial Name 183. Mr Mohammad Khan Bora Khel 184. Malik Sarwar Jan Bora Khel 185. Malik Gulabat Khan Wazir Bora Khel 186. Malik Maley Khan Bora Khel 187. Mr Mir Badshah Khan Daur Hamzoni 188. Mr Ajab Khan Daur Miranshah Tehsil Dossali 189. Malik Meharban Wazir Dirdoni 190. Malik Janfraz Wazir Dirdoni 191. Malik Darsalam Wazir Dirdoni 192. Malik Ghaffar Khan Wazir Dirdoni 193. Malik Mohammad Ayub Wazir Dirdoni 194. Malik Akram Khan Wazir Dirdoni 195. Mr Hakim Din Wazir Asad Khel 196. Malik Pasham Khan Wazir Razani 197. Malik Mehtar Khan Wazir Dosalli 198. Malik Masharaf Wazir Dosalli Tehsil Gharyum 199. Malik Ganju Khan Maddi Khel Tori Khel 200. Malik Jehngir Khan Bobali Tori Khel 201. Subedar Shah Mehmood Khan Madi Khel Tori Khel 202. Malik Khaisoor Khan

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

220

Annexure I RELIGIOUS PERSONALITIES

Serial Name

1. Maulvi Rab Nawaz

2. Maulvi Hameed Ullah Qutab Khel

3. Qari Roman

4. Siraj Ud Din Haqqani

5. Qari Said Wazir

6. Maulvi Rehmat Ullah

7. Maulvi Haleem Shah

8. Maulvi Noor Akhtar Jan

9. Maulvi Ghani Gul

10. Maulvi Latif Ullah

11. Maulvi Abdul Ghani

12. Maulvi Said Zaman

13. Maulvi Muhammad Hassan

14. Maulvi Nek Bhadar

15. Maulvi Muhammad Faraz

16. Maulvi Sakhi Jan

17. Maulvi Muhammad Hassan

18. Maulvi Mian Wali Khan

19. Maulvi Muhammad Khalil

20. Maulvi Mansoor Khan

21. Maulvi Mansoor Khan

221

Serial Name 22. Qari Noor Islam

23. Sher Ajam Khan

24. Maulvi Rehman Said

25. Gul Shahid

26. Momin Khan

27. Maulvi Pir Zaman

28. Maulvi Muhammad Zubair

29. Haji Noor Muhammad

30. Abdul Shakoor

31. Maulvi Maula Khan

32. Maulvi Abdul Samad

33. Maulvi Sadiq Noor

34. Qari Aziz Ullah

35. Maulvi Mansoor Khan

36. Maulvi Karam Khan

37. Yaqub Khan Mehsud

38. Maulvi Hussain

39. Maulvi Sher Baz

40. Muhammad Sher

41. Qari Imdad Ullah

42. Qari Abdullah

43. Maulvi Sard Ali

44. Maulvi Gul Zar

Source: Geography and Habitat - NWA, 2015.

222

Annexure J GOVERNMENT AGREEMENT (1951-51)

1. We proclaim that our territory is an integral part of the dominion of Pakistan and we are citizens of Pakistan.

2. We pledge our loyalty to the Constitution of Pakistan and the Government of Pakistan as by law established.

3. We shall remain peaceful and law abiding citizens of Pakistan and shall render every assistance to the Government, whenever called upon to do so.

4. We and our tribes shall have no dealings with any other power and the friends of Pakistan shall be our friends and the enemies of Pakistan shall be our enemies.

5. We shall protect the rights and interests of Pakistan at all cost and shall faithfully abide by directions given to us by the Government of Pakistan in this regard from time to time.

6. We shall render every assistance to the officials of the Pakistan Government in our areas and shall ensure their safety.

7. We shall facilitate the construction of roads, other public works, defence installations and establishment of communications in our areas and shall ensure the safety and protection of all Government property in our area. We shall also render every assistance to Government in the social and economic development of our area.

8. In the internal affairs of our tribe, the Pakistan Government will ensure the maintenance of our tribal customs and usages and all our tribal matters and internal disputes shall be settled in accordance with our tribal customs and in consultation with and through our tribal leaders.

9. The Government of Pakistan will continue to pay us our annual Muajib of Rupees._____ for the tribe and Rupees.______as lungis for Maliks and representatives of our tribes. These grants will be subject to good behaviour and the fulfillment of the obligations detailed above, which our tribe has undertaken upon itself.

223

10. We shall attend to all summons of the officers of the Pakistan Government and shall call on the Political Agent, to receive our annual Muajibs in the spring every year. If we fail to do so, the Muajibs for the year shall be forfeited to the Government of Pakistan.

11. That, we shall abide by all the previous undertakings given and agreements made by us, from time to time, with the Government.

Source: Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (States and Frontier Regions Division).

224

Annexure K CONSTITUTIONAL STATUS OF FATA

Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on behalf of the President of Pakistan exercises the federal authority to administer the tribal areas of Pakistan. The Constitution of Pakistan governs FATA through the same rules which were framed by the British in 1901 as FCR. The Jurisdiction of Supreme Court and High Courts of Pakistan do not extend to FATA and Provincially Administered Tribal Areas, according to Article 247 and Article 248, of 1973 Constitution of Pakistan.

Article 246

"Tribal Areas" means the areas in Pakistan which, immediately before the commencing day, were Tribal Areas, and includes the Tribal Areas of Baluchistan and the North- West Frontier Province; and the former States of Amb, Chitral, Dir and Swat;

 "Provincially Administered Tribal Areas" means

 The districts of Chitral, Dir and Swat (which includes Kalam), the Tribal Area in Kohistan district, Malakand Protected Area, the Tribal Area adjoining Mansehra district and the former State of Amb; and

 Zhob district, Loralai district (excluding Duki Tehsil), Dalbandis Tehsil of Chagi District and Marri and Bugti tribal territories of Sibi district; and

 Federally Administered Tribal Areas includes

 Tribal Areas adjoining Peshawar district;

 Tribal Areas adjoining Kohat district;

 Tribal Areas adjoining Bannu district;

 Tribal Areas adjoining Dera Ismail Khan district;

 Bajaur Agency,

 Orakzai Agency,

 Mohmand Agency,

 Khyber Agency;

225

 Kurram Agency;

 North Waziristan Agency, and

 South Waziristan Agency.

 Subject to the Constitution, the executive authority of the Federation shall extend to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and the executive authority of a Province shall extend to the Provincially Administered Tribal Areas therein.

 The President may, from time to time, give such directions to the Governor of a Province relating to the whole or any part of a Tribal Area within the Province as he may deem necessary, and the Governor shall, in the exercise of his functions under this Article, comply with such directions.

 No Act of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) shall apply to any Federally Administered Tribal Area or to any part thereof, unless the President so directs, and no Act of Majlis-e-Shoora (Parliament) or a Provincial Assembly shall apply to a Provincially Administered Tribal Area, or to any part thereof, unless the Governor of the Province in which the Tribal Area is situate, with the approval of the President, so directs; and in giving such a direction with respect to any law, the President or, as the case may be, the Governor, may direct that the law shall, in its application to a Tribal Area, or to a specified part thereof, have effect subject to such exceptions and modifications as may be specified in the direction.

 Notwithstanding anything contained in the Constitution, the President may, with respect to any matter within the legislative competence of Majlis- e- Shoora (Parliament), and the Governor of a Province, with the prior approval of the President, may, with respect to any matter within the legislative competence of the Provincial Assembly make regulations for the peace and good government of a Provincially Administered Tribal Area or any part thereof, situated in the Province.

Source: Ministry of States and Frontier Regions (States and Frontier Regions Division).

226

Annexure L AGENCY ADMINISTRATION

Serial Name Designation Location

1. Kamran Ahmed Afridi Political Agent Miranshah

2. Mr Abdul Nasir Additional Political Agent Miranshah

3. Mr Taimoor Afridi Assistant Political Agent Miranshah

4. Mr Irfan Uddin Assistant Political Agent Mirali

5. Mr Saleem Jan Marwat Assistant Political Agent Razmak

6. Mr Noor Sahib Khan Executive Engineer Miranshah Communication

7. Mr Javed Iqbal Executive Engineer Miranshah Irrigation

8. Mr Nasir Khan Executive Building Miranshah

9. Mr Awal Ayaz Agency Education officer Miranshah

10. Dr Rehman Afridi Agency Surgeon Miranshah

11. Mr Muhammad Anwar Agency Agriculture Miranshah Officer

12. Dr Abdul Rehman Assistant Director Miranshah Livesock

13. Mr Ihsan Ullah Forest Range Officer Miranshah

14. Mr Arif Ullah Agency Account Officer Miranshah

15. Mr Jehanzeb Sub-division Officer Miranshah Public Health Engineering

16. Mr Abdul Aziz Supervisor Sericulture

Source: Political Agent Office- NWA, 2016.

227

Annexure M POLICY OPTIONS FOR POST CONFLICT REHABILITATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN (QUESTIONNAIRE)

Note: This is purely an academic endeavor pursing Ph.D. program in the discipline of Public Administration. It shall be the researcher‘s ethical responsibility to keep all the information strictly confidential.

Respondent’s Profile

1. Name of the respondent (Optional) ______

2. Gender ______

3. Age

(1) 18 – 25 Years (2) 26 – 35 Years (3) 35 – 50 Years (4) 51 Years and above

4. Education (No of years)

(1) Primary and below (2) 5 – 9 years education (3) 10 – 14 years education (4) 15 years and above

5. House Status

(1) Own (2) Rented

(3) Camp (TDP) (4) Others

6. Profession

(1) Government job (2) Private job (3) Own business (4) Jobless (5) Student (6) Others

7. Residence Tehsil (Optional)

(1) Miranshah (2) Mirali (3) Razmak

228

PART - 1

Post Afghan war (1979-1991) settlement of foreign fighters implanted the seeds Q.1 of conflict