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Global Perspective from the Investment Advisory Group European Central Bank: No Tapering in Sight

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Global Perspective from the Investment Advisory Group European Central Bank: No Tapering in Sight Truist Advisory Services, Inc. from the Investment Advisory Group Global Perspective European Central Bank: No tapering in sight June 16, 2021 Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) sounded more dovish than expected at the recent monetary policy meeting. Possible tapering discussions moved to September with the ECB planning to continue roughly €80b in monthly bond purchases as part of the pandemic-related asset purchase program (PEPP) as well as €20b monthly through its asset purchase program (APP). The European economy struggled during the first quarter of 2021, registering back-to-back quarterly contractions, albeit smaller than expected. The vaccination program has been a success, and external demand for European products is strong. The latest mobility figures suggest the services part of the economy could start contributing to the recovery in the second half of the year. More importantly, the ECB’s monetary support is here to stay with Eylem Senyuz rate hike expectations anchored towards the middle of the decade. Tapering of bond Senior Global Macro Strategist purchases wasn't discussed during the latest meeting, and the ECB indicated a willingness to Portfolio & Market Strategy wait until the end of the summer to see the Fed’s next move, possibly to be revealed during the Jackson Hole meeting in August. Important dates for ECB and the Fed July Aug Sept Dec Jan Mar Dec End 2021 2021 2021 2021 wirp 2022 2022 2022 2024 ECB Jackson FOMC FOMC FOMC ECB FOMC ECB No change Hole possible possible taper possible possible 1st hike 1st hike expected Symposium taper announcement taper start PEPP end (consensus) (consensus) talk (tapering) Data source: Truist IAG, BCA Research, not to scale. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment and insurance products: • Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured • Are not bank guaranteed • May lose value ECB Holding the ground with multiple sources of liquidity At the recent monetary policy meeting, the central bank decided to keep its very accommodative monetary policy during the summer months of 2021. Key decisions at the last meeting: • The interest rate on the deposit rate was unchanged at -0.50%. On the marginal lending facility, the bank charges 0.25%. We agree with the consensus view that there will be no changes in key rates until 2024. • The bank is committed to keeping interest rates at lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook converging with the 2% upper threshold. • The net asset purchases under the €1,850 billion pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) will continue until at least the end of March 2022 or until the ECB judges that the coronavirus crisis is over. The net purchases over the coming quarter will continue to be conducted at a higher pace than earlier in the year, around €80b per month. The ECB expects to reinvest maturing securities until the end of 2023. • The previously established asset purchase program (APP) at a monthly pace of €20b is scheduled to continue as long as it is needed. It is expected to end shortly before the central bank raises rates, which could be towards the middle of the decade according to some conservative estimates. As in the case of the PEPP program, maturing securities of the APP will be reinvested. • Lastly, the ECB’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) will continue to support banks at favorable funding rates. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for July 22, and we believe that there will be no major policy change until the meeting scheduled for September 9. This will provide enough time for the ECB to assess the European economic recovery as it is expected to gain momentum during the summer months. The ECB also needs time to analyze the Fed’s latest statement presented during the annual Jackson Hole policy symposium in Wyoming on August 26-28. Economic projections upgraded During the first quarter of 2021, Eurozone economic activity contracted by -0.3% due to prolonged mandatory social distancing measures and unexpected bottlenecks in supply chains. With the help of the resilient manufacturing sector, faster vaccination rollout, and rapid unwinding of the containment measures, optimism for much better economic activity in the second half of the year has risen. The ECB’s projections for 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised up to 4.6% for 2021 and 4.7% for 2022, a 0.6% upward revision for both years. Even with this recent upgrade, Eurozone economic activity is still only anticipated to reach its pre-crisis level output level by the third quarter of 2022, well after many larger economies like the U.S. and China. Inflation is up, but not yet at worrisome levels, and well behind the 2% inflation trajectory Eurozone area inflation picked up with an increase in energy prices and firm external demand. Inflation is expected to experience a transitory spike above 2% during 2021 and is projected to end the year at around 1.9%. Since the establishment of the ECB, the central bank has aimed to sustain annual inflation around a 2% inflation target. The first two presidents of the ECB, Wim Duisenberg (1998-2003) and Jean-Claude Trichet (2003-2011), managed to finish their terms with inflation very close to 2%. However, Mario Draghi had a disappointing 7% gap from the 2% target. Christine Lagarde, the ECB’s latest president, inherited Draghi’s persistently low inflation problem. Since the introduction of the common currency in 1998, the region’s inflation is 12.5% below the 2% inflation target. Lagarde may continue with the current ultra-loose monetary policy mix in order to generate enough inflation to close the inflation gap created during the Draghi years and the COVID-19 induced recession. ECB presidents and 2% inflation target 120 Mario Draghi Jean-Claude 2011-2019 Trichet 2003-2011 115 Wim Duisenberg 7% gap 1998-2003 110 105 100 1.3% gap Christine Lagarde 2019-present 95 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Data Source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg Unwinding of pent-up demand expected Mandatory social distancing curtailed private consumption, and saving rates reached historic levels. An increase in private consumption in 2021 is expected to be around 2.9%, well below overall GDP growth rate assumptions, but in 2022, when social mobility is anticipated to return to pre-COVID levels, private consumption is expected to achieve a 7% growth rate—which should result in economic momentum delivering strong years back-to-back. There's a risk the accumulated excess savings could remain largely unspent as a significant portion of these savings is by high-income households, and they usually tend to have a lower marginal propensity to consume. Bottom line Eurozone economic activity is expected to achieve a significant rebound starting in the current quarter. The rapid unwinding of virus containment measures—owing to its successful vaccination program—external solid demand, and pandemic-related joint fiscal spending plan could boost economic activity this year and the next year. The European recovery is becoming slowly visible in corporate earnings albeit not yet as robust as those in the U.S. Some unwinding of pent-up demand is expected this year with mobility restrictions lifted, but most of the accumulated excess savings are anticipated to be converted to consumption next year. We expect the ECB to stay accommodative for much longer, accepting the recent high inflation as transitory, and suppressing interest rates with its sizeable bond-buying programs. Disclosures Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and SunTrust Delaware Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc., and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Truist Advisory Services, Inc., GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers, offer investment advisory services. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Banks, Inc., now Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published.
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