Mapping Government Presence in the Northern Triangle: A Comprehensive Study on the Human Security Systems of the Northern Triangle, and Why Indicators of Government Presence are Difficult to Map Mara Belle Royse Senior International Relations and Global Studies Capstone Project 15 May 2020 Completed thanks to the invaluable assistance of Andrés Ruiz Sors, translator and research assistant, and the superb mentorship of Dr. Michael Mosser. ——— In service to the Department of State and Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs Diplomacy Lab. 2 ABSTRACT AND PURPOSE OF RESEARCH: After a surge of migrants in seek of security and asylum attempted to cross the United States’ southern border in 2019, U.S. officials have grown increasingly concerned with the condition of their neighbors to the south. The U.S. Department of State (DOS) and the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) are attempting to identify and categorize indicators of government presence in the Northern Triangle region of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras), specifically in the sector of public security. Ideally, research gathered for this project would include a map of the collected addresses of public institutions that provide some form of essential human security to the region (i.e. public law offices, hospitals, police stations or outposts, etc.). The map would include details like numbers of staff per capita in a given area, and level of efficiency and efficacy. The information and data collected would assist the DOS and INL in targeting (with extreme accuracy) which precise locations need more resources and development to increase their response and service capabilities, and would allow agents to determine what areas of the overall systems of security require reform and restructuring. Due to the characteristics of the problem outlined within this document, the task of mapping locations through the ArcGIS geospatial information system was nearly impossible. However, through the research process, the author was able to ascertain the complexities of the problems that plague the Northern Triangle region. The following report (1) highlights the statistics and context of crime and instability in the Northern Triangle; (2) spotlights the areas of concern within the security sector, including law enforcement, border security, penal systems, and judicial processes; (3) taps into the failures of traditional government capacities related to security – like medical, educational and humanitarian services; (4) evaluates rule of law and the effect of systemic corruption; (5) and analyzes the assembled addresses of government presence indicators, shining a light on the difficulties of obtaining public information. In addition to these areas of focus, the emergence of the novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has further exposed and exacerbated issues within the region, to an extent that the international community has been unable to ignore. Therefore, an additional section is provided with the most up-to-date information available, focused on the effects of COVID-19 on human security in the Northern Triangle. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 – Figures and Tables 5 – Executive Summary 10 – Background of Problem in Today’s Context 13 – A Turbulent History 18 – A Disadvantaged Geographic Location 22 – Inequity, the Informal Sector, and a Poor Distribution of Resources 36 – Rule of Law, Government Corruption, and Human Rights 52 – Crime Statistics and Information 58 – Broken Security and Justice Systems 68 – COVID-19 Pandemic and the Security of the Northern Triangle 71 – Findings and Takeaways: Indicators of Government Presence 75 – Suggestions for Future Research and Policy Guidance 77 – Appendix of Addresses and Corresponding Coordinates 98 – References 4 FIGURES AND TABLES 19 – Table 1: Agriculture in the Northern Triangle 24 – Table 2: GDP and Employment in the Northern Triangle 25 – Figure 1: Demographics of the Northern Triangle 26 – Table 3: Poverty and Wealth Distribution 27 – Table 4: Disparities in Access to Clean Water, Sanitation Services, and Literacy Rate in the Northern Triangle 31 – Table 5: Healthcare Capacity of the Northern Triangle 37 – Table 6: Rule of Law Indicators in the Northern Triangle (rank out of 128 countries, index scale of 0.0 to 1.0) 38 – Table 7: Rule of Law – Highest and Lowest Scoring Countries 52 – Figure 2: Northern Triangle Homicide Rate per 100,000 from 2009-2019 55 – Figure 3: Rate of Male Homicides in the Northern Triangle (per 100,000 residents in that age group) 55 – Figure 4: Rate of Femicide in the Northern Triangle (per 100,000 residents in that age group) 56 – Figure 5: Rates of Other Serious Crimes in the Northern Triangle (per 100,000 residents) 62 – Table 8: Police Counts & Actual Homicide Count versus Suspects, Arrests, & Convictions 64 – Table 9: Prosecutions versus Convictions of the Northern Triangle 64 – Table 10: Prison Capacity of the Northern Triangle 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In FY19, the United States saw a surge of migrants from the Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras arrive at the southern border – approximately 608,000 people, compared to the 265,000 average number of migrants that arrived annually from FY14 to FY18. Since FY16, the U.S. has spent over $2.6 billion in aid to assist in development and improve security systems; the Northern Triangle countries have pooled $9.985 billion since 2016 for their A4P initiative, also geared towards development and security. International institutions and FDI have contributed to resources and funding for the Northern Triangle as well. Despite tremendous efforts and funding, the number of internally and externally displaced peoples have increased dramatically, indicating that governments in this region still lack the capacity to provide opportunity and security for their citizens. Currently, U.S. officials are attempting to determine how the U.S. can better focus resources within the isthmus. In response to this problem, the DOS and INL have been tasked with answering the question: where are there physical indicators of government presence, especially those that determine security, located? This may include public law offices, hospitals, police stations/outposts, etc. Answering this question is one of the first steps in observing which citizens are more vulnerable to insecurity and would be more likely to migrate. The author attempted to find and map as many addresses as possible, but had little luck. Still, through researching the problems that plague the Northern Triangle, the author was able to establish areas of state that need improving and regional vulnerabilities that influence patterns of migration. A turbulent history contributes to the broken social contract between citizens and the government. Due to a series of bloody civil wars (ending in the nineties) and intense authoritarian responses from the state that resulted in over 275,000 deaths, citizens have a lack of trust towards the government, and the government does not feel complete responsibility to its citizens. The civil war also brought a huge wave of migrants to the U.S., where they were forced to live in areas with high levels of poverty and gang activity. This led many to join or establish gangs (like MS-13 and M-18), for self-defense. In 1996, thousands of illegal immigrants involved with gangs were deported back to Central America. Today, there are approximately 60,000 active street gang members in El Salvador, 36,000 in Honduras, and 14,000 in Guatemala. The Northern Triangle suffers from a Disadvantageous geographic location; drug cartels move much of their stock through the region, since it is the only land passage connecting South America to the U.S.: the biggest consumers of narcotics in the western hemisphere. Thanks to limited border security, Northern Triangle countries are extremely porous, attracting smugglers. In the 2000s, Mexican cartels like the Sinaloa group and los Zetas started expanding their territory of operations within the Northern Triangle. Since 2004, around 90% of all cocaine and 89% of all heroine that made its way to the U.S. has come from Latin America. 6 Geographic location also determines climate vulnerabilities. Agriculture plays a large role in the economy, providing employment for a significant portion of the labor force (see Table 1). The region relies on the La Niña weather phenomenon to bring water to crops, but due to an extended El Niño drought beginning in 2014, several seasons of crops were lost in recent years. In 2016, the UN FAO estimated at least 1.6 million people in Central America faced constant food insecurity because of climate change. Additionally, 70% of coffee farms (a major agricultural export in the region) have been infected by coffee rust since 2012, causing up to an 80% drop in crop yield. Farms can generally survive one bad season, but successive seasons of failed crops eventually force families to migrate in search of food and employment. Thanks to generations of inequities on ethnic lines and a poor distribution of public resources anD services, many are forced to turn to the informal economic sector or criminal activities for work. In 2017, for example, the labor force of the Northern Triangle increased by 353,000 people, but only 35,000 jobs were created in the formal sector that same year, forcing over 300,000 people to look for work in the informal economy. This leaves citizens without employment benefits and safety nets and minimizes tax revenue to GDP ratio, as informal jobs are not regulated by the government, leaving less money available public spending. Around half of the GDP the Northern Triangle goes towards the informal, shadow economy, with a rate of 63-73% informal sector employment (see Table 2). A significant number of Northern Triangle residents live below the national poverty line or are living in extreme poverty, and wealth is distributed extremely unevenly – with the richest 20% making around 50% of all income, and the poorest 20% making just 3-6% of all income (see Figure 1 and Table 3).