LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, June 27, 2019

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, June 27, 2019

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Is the Movement to Colombia’s Coca Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Cargill Cultivation Falls Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Oust Venezuela’s for First Time JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Six Years Marlene Fernández Corporate Vice President for Maduro Fading? Colombia’s coca cultivation and Government Relations, cocaine production declined Arcos Dorados slightly last year, marking the first Peter Hakim drop since 2012, according to the President Emeritus, White House Office of National Inter-American Dialogue Drug Control Policy. Donna Hrinak Page 2 President, Boeing Latin America Jon Huenemann Retired VP, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, ECONOMIC Philip Morris International James R. Jones Argentina Posts Chairman, Monarch Global Strategies Trade Surplus of Craig A. Kelly $1.37 Bn for May Director, Americas International Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó, whom dozens of countries recognize as the coun- The South American country’s try’s legitimate president, called last week for an investigation into graft allegations against John Maisto trade surplus last month was a Director, U.S. Education two of his representatives. // Photo: Facebook page of Juan Guaidó. better figure than analysts had Finance Group Venezuela’s attorney general on June 18 accused opposition been expecting. Nicolás Mariscal Page 2 Chairman, leader Juan Guaidó of leading an alleged scheme in which Grupo Marhnos two of his representatives are accused of misappropriating Thomas F. McLarty III Q money meant to help Venezuelan military defectors living in POLITICAL Chairman, McLarty Associates Colombia. Guaidó has vowed to investigate. How big a blow are the alle- El Salvador Will Carlos Paz-Soldan gations to Venezuela’s opposition movement? Will Guaidó lose support Pay to Repatriate Partner, DTB Associates, LLP over the episode? Is the movement to oust President Nicolás Maduro Bodies of Man, Beatrice Rangel losing steam? Daughter: Bukele Director, AMLA Consulting LLC El Salvador’s government will pay Jaana Remes David Smilde, Charles A. and Leo M. Favrot Professor of to repatriate the remains of a Partner, man and his young daughter who Human Relations at Tulane University and senior fellow at McKinsey Global Institute drowned while trying to cross the Ernesto Revilla the Washington Office on Latin America: “The accusations of Rio Grande into the United States, Head of Latin American Economics, Citi misappropriation are not transcendental in their impact. But said President Nayib Bukele. A Page 2 Gustavo Roosen they are a part of a process of political normalization that does not work Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos in Guaidó’s favor. His project to become interim president and usher in a Andrés Rozental democratic transition was facilitated by his image as a fresh face, legit- President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior imately representing Venezuelans’ aspirations for liberty and well-being. Policy Advisor, Chatham House Among the population, accusations such as these transmit a perception Shelly Shetty that Guaidó and his coalition are just another band of politicians seeking Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch personal benefit. And these perceptions contribute to a more general Roberto Sifon-Arevalo malaise that this new opposition coalition is no more effective than past Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, opposition coalitions at confronting Chavismo. Behind this of course are Standard & Poor’s the very real facts that Guaidó has failed to gain military support and the interest of the United States is fading, as is talk of foreign military inter- vention. There is considerable consensus within the opposition leadership that they need to change directions and negotiate with the Maduro gov- Bukele // File Photo: Radio Nacional de El Salvador. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS Communications Minister Jorge Rodríguez said NEWS BRIEFS the plot involved an invasion by agents from Colombia’s Coca Israel, Colombia and North America, as well as El Salvador Will Pay to the seizure of military bases and a raid on the Repatriate Bodies of Cultivation Falls for central bank, The Washington Post reported. In an evening broadcast, Maduro said his Drowned Man, Daughter First Time Since 2012 government’s security forces stopped the plot Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said from unfolding. “We have revealed, dismantled Wednesday that his government will pay to Coca cultivation and cocaine production in and captured a fascist band of terrorists that repatriate the bodies of a man and his young Colombia fell slightly last year for the first time planned a coup against Venezuelan society daughter who were found dead after drowning in six years but remained at historically high and Venezuelan democracy,” he said, Reuters in a failed attempt to cross the Rio Grande levels, the White House Office of National Drug reported. “They are captured, behind bars, from Mexico into the United States, USA Today Control Policy, or ONDCP, said Wednesday, the with clear evidence after following this group reported. The release by the Associated Press Associated Press reported. Coca cultivation of criminals and fascists.” Maduro also said of a graphic image of their bodies face down in Colombia dropped 208,000 hectares in the plan involved political leaders from Chile, in muddy water triggered an outcry on social 2018 as compared to the previous year, which Colombia and the United States. Opposition media over the hardships migrants endure on registered some 209,000 hectares, according leader Juan Guaidó, whom dozens of countries their trek north from Central America. to the office’s figures. Meanwhile, the potential recognize as Venezuela’s legitimate acting pure cocaine production was 887 pure metric president, dismissed Maduro’s claims as lies. tons last year, down from 900 pure metric tons Maduro’s opponents have accused him of fab- in 2017. Colombian President Iván Duque, ricating stories about coup plots for political Argentina Posts Trade who took office last August, quadrupled the effect. In April, Guaidó called for a military up- Surplus of $1.37 Bn in May number of anti-narcotics teams in Colombia, rising, but the move failed to dislodge Maduro Argentina last month posted a trade surplus of which helped the country eradicate 56 percent as president. Maduro’s government made the $1.37 billion, a better figure than analysts had more coca per month than under the previous allegations just hours before the opening of the been expecting, according to the government’s administration, according to the White House Organization of American States’ General As- National Institute of Statistics and Census, or statement. “In working closely with President sembly in Medellín. At the gathering, OAS Sec- INDEC, Reuters reported Wednesday. In May, Duque, we are seeing Colombia make progress retary General Luis Almagro called suggestions Argentina’s exports amounted to $6.02 billion, in accomplishing our shared goal of signifi- that U.S. economic and financial sanctions an annual increase of 16.5 percent, while cantly reducing coca cultivation and cocaine against Venezuela’s government were to blame imports reached $4.64 billion, a decline of 28 production,” ONDCP director Jim Carroll said for the country’s economic problems “ridicu- percent, year-on-year. In May of last year, the in the statement. Colombia’s ambassador to lous,” the Miami Herald reported. country had a trade deficit of $1.28 billion. the United States, Francisco Santos, told the AP that the interruption to the increase of cultivation and production is important because it BUSINESS NEWS could potentially mean the beginning of a trend Bank of Nova Scotia reversal. [Editor’s note: See related Q&A in the Four Argentine Banks Selling Units in Puerto Oct. 17 issue of the Advisor.] Rico, Virgin Islands Miss U.S. Regulatory The Bank of Nova Scotia is selling its op- Venezuela’s Maduro Filing Deadline erations in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to Oriental Bank, a subsidiary of San Says Security Forces Juan-based OFG Bancorp, the Financial Post Four Argentina-based financial services firms reported today. Oriental Bank will pay $550 Foiled Coup Plot have missed a regulatory filing deadline million in cash for the Puerto Rico business imposed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange and a $10 million deposit premium for the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said Commission, or SEC, leading the agency to U.S. Virgin Islands branch operation. The deal, Wednesday that the country’s security forces deem the firms delinquent, The Wall Street which is still subject to regulatory approvals, had foiled a plot to assassinate him, his wife Journal reported Monday. The firms—Grupo would make Oriental the second-largest bank in and another high-ranking official and install Financiero Galicia, Banco Macro, BBVA Banco Puerto Rico in terms of “core deposits, branch- Raúl Baduel, an imprisoned former military Francés and Grupo Supervielle—missed filing es, automated and interactive teller machines officer, as president, UPI reported. Venezuelan deadlines for their annual reports during the and mortgage servicing,” OFG said.

COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, June 27, 2019 second quarter, leading the SEC to deem them FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 delinquent in the reporting requirements. The banks are required to make regulatory filings ernment. But selling that to their followers out corruption will not undermine Guaidó. It to the agency because they issue American and trying to keep their coalition unified in will make the point that Guaidó will not toler- depositary receipts. They said they missed the process is their current challenge. Just ate corruption as business as usual, that he the deadline because of the adoption of new as hard is getting the United States to be represents a real change and that Venezuela International Financial Reporting Standards. constructive. While there is implicit recog- has hope for a better future.” The delay resulted from a switch to the new nition deep within the Trump administration accounting standards during a period of soar- regarding the need for negotiation, key U.S. Julia Buxton, professor of ing inflation in Argentina. IFRS rules require diplomats around the globe continue to push comparative politics at the companies to put in place special procedures an anti-negotiation message.” School of Public Policy of for reporting in the currencies of economies A Central European University that are experiencing hyperinflation. For Charles Shapiro, president of in Budapest: “Guaidó’s problems run much accounting purposes, Argentina’s economy has the World Affairs Council of At- deeper than this misappropriation scandal, been considered hyperinflationary since July lanta and former U.S. ambassa- but the scandal is symbolic of the wider of last year. All four firms filed the required A dor to Venezuela: “Twenty years vulnerabilities that the interim administration reports after the deadline had passed, The Wall of Chavista corruption and criminality com- has created for itself. Five months since his Street Journal reported. Argentine firms have pounded by incompetence have transformed auto declaration, the interim president is had to change their practices for accounting Venezuela into a failed state whose citizens no closer to assuming power than he was and reporting and also train staff to process are fleeing the country in record numbers. back in January. He may be legitimate in inflation-related adjustments and also restate For Nicolás Maduro’s attorney general to comparative figures in their financial reports, accuse interim President Juan Guaidó’s Guaidó’s problems according to the newspaper. Under the new people of misusing funds intended to cover run much deeper standards, Grupo Galicia swung to a loss of the room and board of Venezuelan military 3.83 billion pesos last year ($89.5 million), as defectors is ironic—and troubling to the than this misappropri- compared to a profit of 7.28 billion pesos for extent that there may be some truth to these ation scandal...” 2017. BBVA’s Argentine unit reported a loss charges bouncing around the Twitter-sphere. — Julia Buxton of 1.57 billion pesos last year, as compared I have no doubt that Guaidó is more than to a profit of 1.86 billion pesos in 2017. BBVA busy rallying his supporters, dealing with the the eyes of (the oft-repeated) ‘more than in a separate disclosure also said Argentine existential threat that Maduro and Chavismo 50 countries,’ but this has not translated authorities had launched an investigation into represent to the popularly elected National into control of the state or national policy, alleged violations of regulations designed to Assembly, the last vestige of democracy in finances and territory. The strategic errors prevent money laundering and financing of Venezuela, and listening to the cacophony are accumulating, next steps are unclear, terrorism. Grupo Supervielle reported a loss of of domestic and international voices telling popular expectations have been elevated 3.06 billion pesos last year, as compared to a him what he should and should not be doing. and repeatedly frustrated, and Guaidó’s restated loss of 755.3 million pesos in 2017. To add my voice to that cacophony: Guaidó capacity to convoke mass mobilizations is Under the previous reporting standards, Grupo should seize the opportunity to act presiden- waning. The longer the impasse drags, the Supervielle had reported a profit of 2.44 billion tial, to demonstrate that he is not just anoth- more of a challenge it will be for Guaidó to pesos in 2017. Banco Macro reported a net er politician turning a blind eye to corruption hold his coalition together. To date, he has loss of 734.1 million pesos in 2018 under the and to draw a bright line between Chavismo sought to placate divergent factions, re- new standards, as compared to a profit of 6.02 and the democratic forces in Venezuela. sulting in rhetorical and policy flip-flopping. billion pesos the previous year. Argentina’s Among the million Venezuelans in Colombia, This creates an impression of incoherence. annual rate of inflation stood at 57.3 percent there are certainly lawyers, investigators and Guaidó is too reliant on the United States to in May, according to the government, the judges. Use those resources. Investigate leverage a domestic political shift and too Buenos Aires Times reported June 13. In April, what happened to those funds and whether disengaged from the ramifications of U.S. inflation slowed for the second consecutive they were misused. If they were misused, mechanisms, such as sanctions and asset month, coming in at 3.1 percent. The country collect evidence and build a case. Just like seizures, to force regime change. While ended 2018 with an inflation rate of approxi- in any democratic nation where the rule of the former are exacting a heavy social toll, mately 30 percent, among the world’s highest law prevails, if there is sufficient evidence, the latter elevate the risk of irregularities in and the second highest in Latin America after the perpetrators should be indicted. Rooting Guaidó’s interim administration. The lack of Venezuela. Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2019 oversight of funding streams is a problem, cation wanted was to alert the government including among the parallel ambassadorial of Juan Guaidó about alleged irregularities Erik Brand appointments Guaidó has made. The latest that could affect him and compel him to Publisher [email protected] allegations will no doubt be the first of react. Guaidó’s reaction was instantaneous. many given the vulnerabilities inherent in He took full responsibility for the humanitari- Gene Kuleta Editor seeking to sustain and formalize an interim an aid and the management of funds related [email protected] administration long after its viability has to it. He immediately asked the veteran Anastasia Chacón González been exhausted.” ambassador of Venezuela in Colombia to Reporter file a formal complaint within the Colombian [email protected] Gustavo Roosen, president of jurisdiction. Unlike the Maduro administra- IESA in Caracas: “It is cynical tion, President Guaidó is fully aware that

that the attorney general of Ven- the authority can be delegated but that Michael Shifter, President ezuela has accused two people responsibility is non-delegable. His way of A Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow of misdeeds that have occurred in Colombi- handling this accusation could strengthen Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow an territory where his office has no jurisdic- his image. This is his way of carrying out a Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects tion. Public statements by the minister of hand-to-hand fight to stop Nicolás Maduro’s Michael Camilleri, Director, Peter D. Bell Rule of Law information and culture, Jorge Rodríguez, usurpation of the government. The reality Program about the existence of alleged multi-mil- is that the cessation of the usurpation has Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow lion dollar thefts by Guaidó’s supporters turned out to be lengthier than anticipated, Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program in Colombia, in events that had to do with which has affected the country’s initial Peter Hakim, President Emeritus humanitarian aid from third-party countries enthusiasm.” Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow to Venezuela, preceded this accusation. The Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow origin of the accusation was journalistic The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and Latin America Program work undertaken by a publication related to section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration, the opposition, but in reality, what the publi- at [email protected]. Remittances & Development Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development and External Relations

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