A New Stage of Russian History: Trends, Specifics and Prospects
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THEORETICAL ISSUES DOI: 10.15838/esc/2015.2.38.3 UDC 330.341, LBC 65.050.1 © Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V. A new stage of Russian history: trends, specifics and prospects Vladimir Aleksandrovich ILYIN Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honoured Scientist of the Russian Federation, Director, Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Institute of Socio- Economic Development of Territories of Russian Academy of Science (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russian Federation, [email protected]) Mikhail Vladimirovich MOREV Ph.D. in Economics, Laboratory Head, Federal State Budgetary Institution of Science Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of Russian Academy of Science (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russian Federation, [email protected]) Abstract. The article discusses the trends and specifics of public sentiment in Russia in the 1990s–2010s; it analyzes key events of the recent years that led to the understanding of the present stage of social development as a new era of the post-Soviet period. The authors consider the interaction between the society and authorities, the role of scientific knowledge in the improvement of public administration efficiency, the development civil society, and also several promising opportunities and current issues of social science. The article presents the experience of sociological research carried out by ISEDT RAS at the regional level. The authors discuss key factors that determine the efficiency of interaction between the society and authorities and the success of Russia’s further development. Key words: society, authorities, public administration, sociological knowledge, public opinion monitoring, post-Soviet period. 42 2 (38) 2015 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V. G.V. Osipov in the article headlined “Do in our country”2. It is especially important not miss this chance!” published in the for Russia, on the background of emotional annual report “Sociology and economics elation following the events of 2014, and of the current social reality. Social and on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the socio-political situation in Russia in Victory in the Great Patriotic War. 2013” by ISPR RAS writes that, after a Along with the development of the world long, almost 15-year period of waiting, a civilization and new achievements in “new, resurgent” Russia has finally made science and technology the role of non- its transition to a new age – “bright and economic factors becomes more and more life-asserting”1. significant, and this process will obviously What are qualitative differences of this continue in the future. Accordingly, the new era from previous periods of post- issues that we outline in the beginning of Soviet history? What are its fundamental the article, eventually, lead to, perhaps, characteristics? Can we still speak of a “new the main and purely practical question: if phase” in the life of Russia, or the social we are talking about a “new stage” in the trends that have emerged in recent years are life of Russia, then what will determine only a temporary transformation forced by the success of this stage and a smooth and the intricacies of geopolitical events? efficient transition to the next stage? Of course, these and many other To answer this question, we need to find questions present not only scientific, but out when a “new phase” of post-Soviet also practical, interest, because leading Russian history began. But first let us make scientists, including Russian researchers two methodological digressions, which, in (G.V. Osipov, A.V. Yurevich, M.K. Gorshkov, our opinion, are essential for the proper J.T. Toshchenko, etc.), point out that understanding of the author’s viewpoint currently economic growth and prosperity and explanation of the information base of any state depend to a great extent on on which we form our conclusions and intangible factors connected with public hypotheses. consciousness, attitude and behavior. It is First, we specify that there is no and the subjective factor that “plays a significant cannot be any clear date or exact time and increasingly important role among period of the “new stage” of Russian the factors that determine the content and history. We are talking about the trends direction of the changes in the world and in social consciousness, and they are not formed simultaneously. Certain circumstances that will be explained 1 Osipov G.V. Ne upustit’ predostavivshiisya shans! [Do not Miss This Chance!]. Sotsiologiya i ekonomika further and various events in the life of the sovremennoi sotsial’noi real’nosti. Sotsial’naya i sotsial’no- politicheskaya situatsiya v Rossii v 2013 godu [Sociology 2 Toshchenko J.T. Sotsial’noe nastroenie – fenomen and Economics of the Current Social Reality. Social and sotsiologicheskoi teorii i praktiki [Social Mood – Socio-Political Situation in Russia in 2013]. Moscow: a Phenomenon of Sociological Theory and Practice]. ISPI RAN. P. 17. SOTsIS [Sociological Studies], 1998, no. 1, p. 32. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 2 (38) 2015 43 A new stage of Russian history: trends, specifics and prospects country form a new phase exclusively in the conclusions made according to the their entirety, providing a complex effect on research results are more comprehensive the transformation of social consciousness and accurate. and behavior. This can take years, and The methodology of sociological sometimes even decades. research conducted by ISEDT RAS meets Second, the article uses the results of all the requirements that are necessary for opinion polls carried out at the federal and obtaining quality and timely sociological regional levels. These results, rather than data on public opinion trends in the official statistics, reflect the trends in Vologda Oblast. This, in particular, is public sentiment. The dynamics of public proved by close cooperation between the opinion nationwide was analyzed with the Institute and the state authorities that use of the research findings of VTSIOM show a growing interest in the opinions and Levada-Center, the leading Russian of the Oblast residents. The research has centers. We characterized public sentiment been carried out in the monitoring mode in a particular region on the basis of the for nearly 20 years, with an emphasis on results of a sociological monitoring carried dynamic changes of perception of social out by the Institute of Socio-Economic reality by representatives of different socio- Development of Territories of RAS (ISEDT demographic categories of the Vologda RAS) since 19963. Under the current Oblast population4. This allows us to Russian conditions characterized by a deep speak with confidence about the unique and complex differentiation of territories by opportunities for studying transformation level and quality of life of the population, processes in the regional community, cultural specifics, etc., we believe it comparing them with dynamic changes in is extremely important to analyze the the Russian society, which are recognized dynamics of public opinion at the federal by leading scientific institutions of the and regional levels simultaneously. It makes country5. the research itself systemic in nature, and 4 The public opinion monitoring carried out by ISEDT RAS provides the data on more than 20 socio- 3 The public opinion monitoring is carried out demographic categories of the population, divided, in by ISEDT RAS in the Vologda Oblast since 1996 once particular, by gender (men, women); age (under 30, 30– every two months. The volume of a sample population 55, over 55), educational level (secondary and incomplete is 1500 people aged 18 and older in the cities of Vologda secondary, secondary vocational, higher and incomplete and Cherepovets, and in eight districts of the Vologda higher), assessment of one’s own income (20% of the Oblast (Babayevsky District, Velikoustyugsky District, poorest people, 60% of the people with middle-sized Vozhegodsky District, Gryazovetsky District, Kirillovsky income, 20% of the most prosperous people), the area District, Nikolsky District, Tarnogsky District and of residence (8 districts and 2 cities), and also by marital Sheksninsky District. The representativeness of the sample status, occupation, etc. is ensured by the observance of the proportions between 5 Taking this opportunity, we would like to express the urban and rural population, the proportions between our gratitude to the research team of ISPR RAS and the inhabitants of settlements of various types (rural personally to G.V. Osipov for their help and guidance communities, small and medium-sized cities), age and sex not only in creating the system of sociological research structure of the oblast’s adult population. The method of of ISEDT RAS, which is still in demand and continues the survey is a questionnaire poll by place of residence of to develop, but also in the formation of Russian social respondents. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. science in the Vologda land. 44 2 (38) 2015 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V. So, when has a new phase of Russian “prologue to the launch of Russia’s history started? What events have allowed independent foreign policy resulted in the us to speak about a new era of the post- Syrian triumph, when Russia for the first Soviet period? time in recent history managed to stop the G.V. Osipov points out: “Until the aggression of the world leader, the United spring of 2014 the Russian Federation has States, against a sovereign country”8. only formally entered the twenty-first Russian President’s speech in Munich century. In reality, from a geopolitical can, without exaggeration, be called perspective, we were still in the twentieth historic. “Never before in the past decades century”6. Indeed, for Russian 2014 has the Russian leader made such a clear became a year that was rich in events, and, and adamant statement concerning the perhaps, one of the most crucial periods image of the future in international politics.