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Public Opinion Monitoring PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING Public Opinion Monitoring of the State of the Russian Society As in the previous issues, we publish the results of the monitoring of public opinion concerning the state of the Russian society conducted by VolRC RAS in the Vologda Oblast 1. The following tables show the dynamics of a number of parameters of social well-being and socio- political moods of the region’s population based on the results of the last “wave” of monitoring (Febru- ary 2021), as well as for the period from December 2019 to February 2021 (last 6 polls). We compare the results of the surveys with the data for 2000 (the first year of V. Putin’s first presi- dential term), 2007 (the last year of V. Putin’s second presidential term, when the assessment of the President’s work was the highest), 2011 (the last year of Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency), and 2012 (the first year of V. Putin’s third presidential term). We also provide yearly dynamics of the data for 2018–2020. In December 2020 – February 2021, the level of approval of the work of the President of the Russian Federation did not change significantly. The share of positive assessments is 50–52%, negative – 31–33%, which is slightly lower than in February 2020 when the share of positive assessments of the President’s work was 45% (negative – 31%)2. In yearly dynamics, there is a continuing decrease of positive assessments: in 2018 – 66%, 2019 – 56%, 2020 – 52%; in February 2021 – 50%. 1 The polls are held six times a year in Vologda, Cherepovets, and in eight districts of the oblast (Babayevsky District, Velikoustyugsky District, Vozhegodsky District, Gryazovetsky District, Kirillovsky District, Nikolsky District, Tarnogsky District, and Sheksninsky District). The method of the survey is a questionnaire poll by place of residence of respondents. The volume of a sample population is 1,500 people 18 years of age and older. The sample is purposeful and quoted. The representativeness of the sample is ensured by the observance of the proportions between the urban and rural population, the proportions between the inhabitants of settlements of various types (rural communities, small and medium-sized cities), age and sex structure of the Oblast’s adult population. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. More information on the results of VolRC RAS polls is available at: http:// www.vscc.ac.ru/. 2 Hereinafter, the results of a comparative analysis of survey data, conducted in February 2021, and the results of a last-year monitoring “wave” are given in the frame (February 2020). Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast Volume 14, Issue 1, 2021 221 PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING In general, do you approve or disapprove of the work of the President of Russia? (% of respondents, FSBIS VolRC RAS data)* 100 DynamicsДинамика of ср averageеднегод annualовых д dataанны х ДинамDataика dynamicsданных з аfor по theсле lastдни 6е polls6 опр осов 9090 80 80 68.,9 6666,0.0 65.,9 65.,0 66.,4 7070 62.,6 55.6 55,6 52.3 53.,6 53.,6 51.7 52.0 52.0 6060 52,3 51,7 52,0 52,0 50.,1 5050 40 32.6 31.0 33.,6 33.,1 32.6 40 29.,8 32,6 30.,9 31,0 32,6 30.,9 23.4 30 23,4 21.,7 30 16.3 1818.,11 14.8 1515.,11 16,3 2020 14,8 1010 0 2000 2000- 2004- 2008- 2012- 2018 2019 2020 Decдек..1919 фFebев.20.20 Augавг.2.200 окOctт.2.200 дDecек.2.200 ф Febев.2.211 2003 2007 2011 2017 ApproveОдобряю DisapproveНе одобряю * Hereinafter, all graphs show average annual data for 2000, 2018, 2019, 2020, as well as average annual data for 2000– 2003, 2004–2007, 2008–2011, 2012–2017, corresponding to the periods of presidential terms. How do you assess the current performance of..? (% of respondents) Dynamics of average annual data Data dynamics for the last 6 polls Dynamics Respond (+/-), Dec. Feb. Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb. option 2000 2007 2011 2012 2018 2019 2020 Feb. 2021 to 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 Feb. 2020 RF President I approve 66.0 75.3 58.7 51.7 66.4 55.6 52.3 53.6 53.6 51.7 52.0 52.0 50.1 -4 I disapprove 14.8 11.5 25.5 32.6 21.7 29.8 32.6 30.9 31.0 33.6 33.1 32.6 30.9 0 Chairman of the RF Government* I approve -* -* 59.3 49.6 48.0 41.1 38.7 41.1 37.9 38.9 38.8 39.1 37.6 0 I disapprove - - 24.7 33.3 31.6 38.4 40.4 38.9 40.9 40.9 40.8 38.8 38.8 -2 Governor of the Oblast I approve 56.1 55.8 45.7 41.9 38.4 35.7 35.0 35.6 36.2 35.2 35.5 32.9 33.9 -2 I disapprove 19.3 22.2 30.5 33.3 37.6 40.2 42.5 40.8 41.8 41.9 42.1 44.2 42.4 +1 * The question was first asked in 2008. In 2020, the first poll was conducted in January 24–February 12.. The current chairman of the RF Government M. V. Mishustin has just started his new work (January 16, 2020), therefore, respondents were asked about work of the former Prime Minister – Dmitry Medvedev. 222 Volume 14, Issue 1, 2021 Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast 1 PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING For reference: According to VCIOM, the level of approval of the President’s work in December 2020 – first half of Feb- ruary 20213 was 61–62%, and the share of negative assessments was 28–30%. According to latest Levada-Center data (November 2020 – January 20214), assessment of the President’s work has not changed: the share of positive assessments was 64–65%, negative – 34%. At the same time, according to data of VCIOM and Levada-Center, yearly dynamics gradually change in a negative way (since 2012–2017). In general, do you approve or disapprove of the work of the President of Russia? (% of respondents, FSBIS VolRC RAS data) 100 Dynamics of average annual data Data dynamics for the last 6 polls 90 80.2 81.6 75.0 76.8 80 69.6 71.0 64.1 63.1 63.0 65.2 63.2 70 61.0 60.5 62.1 60 50 Annual dynamics (February to February 40 27.2 27.8 28.2 25.9 29.8 27.6 29.8 28.2 24.8 30 17.9 16.6 17.7 16.4 20.1 Respond option Dynamics 20 (+ 10 0 Approve -3 2000 2000- 2004- 2008- 2012- 2018 2019 2020 Dec.19 Feb.20 Aug.20 Oct.20 Dec.20 Feb.21 2003 2007 2011 2017 Disapprove +2 Approve Disapprove Source: VCIOM data. Available at: https://wciom.ru/ Data for February 2021 – average value for two polls: conducted on February 7, 2021 and February 14, 2021. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the work of V. Putin at the position of the President of Russia? (% of respondents; Levada-Center data 100 Dynamics of average annual data Data dynamics for the last 6 polls 90 73.9 75.2 77.4 76.8 73.3 69.0 80 70.3 66.8 64.2 68.0 66.0 68.0 65.0 64.0 70 60 Annual dynamics 50 31.9 32.7 33.0 34.0 34.0 (February 2021 to February 2020) 40 25.7 31.0 30.0 31.0 20.5 22.8 20.6 22.3 30 20.6 Respond option Dynamics 20 (+ 10 0 Approve -5 2000 2000- 2004- 2008- 2012- 2018 2019 2020 Dec.19 Feb.20 Aug.20 Oct.20 Nov.20 Jan.21 2003 2007 2011 2017 Disapprove +4 Approve Disapprove Source: Levada-Center data. Available at: https://www.levada.ru/ 3 At the moment of writing this article, VCIOM latest data were dated February 14, 2021. Source: VCIOM. Ratings. Available at: https://wciom.ru/ratings/dejatelnost-gosudarstvennykh-institutov/ 4 Source: Levada-Center. Indicators. Available at: https://www.levada.ru/indikatory/ Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast Volume 14, Issue 1, 2021 223 2 PUBLIC OPINION MONITORING From December 2020 – February 2021, there have been no significant changes in the assessment of the success with which the President solves the country’s key problems: 9 46% of the Oblast’s residents think that the President is successful in strengthening Russia’s international positions (the share of opposite assessments is 34%); 9 41% of citizens positively assess the President’s work in restoring order in the country; (the share of opposite assessments is 34%); 9 32% of people think that the President is successful in protecting democracy and strengthening the freedoms of citizens (the share of negative characteristics in higher – 48%); 9 25% of respondents positively assess V.V. Putin’s efforts aimed at boosting the economy and increasing the welfare of the population (the share of those who support the opposite opinion has been stable since August 2020 – 61–62%). Compared to February 2020, the share of positive assessments, regarding successfulness of the President’s work, decreased in nearly all key issues: 9 strengthening Russia’s international positions – by 5 p. p. (from 51 to 46%); 9 restoring order in the country – by 3 p. p. (from 44 to 41%); 9 protecting democracy and strengthening the freedoms of citizens – by 3 p.
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