THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES OF RAS

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES: FACTS, TRENDS, FORECAST

4 (34) 2014 The journal is published according to the decision of RAS economic institutions’ administration in the Northwestern Federal District Institute of Economics of Karelian Scientific Centre of RAS (Karelia Republic) G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola Scientific Centre of RAS (Murmansk ) Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS ( Oblast) and according to the decision of the administration of State University of Economics and Finance State University () and RAS institutions of other RF Institute of Social and Economic Research of Ufa Science Centre of RAS ( Republic) Institute of Economics of the Ural RAS Department ()

The decision of Presidium of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian MES (No.6/6, dated 19.02.2010) the journal is included in the list of leading scientific editions, recommended for publication of the main results of dissertations for the degree of Doctor and Candidate of Sciences.

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ISSN 2307-0331 © ISEDT RAS, 2014

Internet address: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru Editorial Council: V.L. Makarov, RAS Academician, Director of the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the RAS (, ) V.V. Ivanter, RAS Academician, Director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the RAS (Moscow, Russia) V.V. Okrepilov, RAS Academician, General Director of State Regional Center for Standardization, Metrology and Testing (St. Petersburg, Russia) A.I. Tatarkin, RAS Academician, Director of the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the RAS (Yekaterinburg, Russia) P.A. Vityaz, Academician, Head of Academy Staff of the NASB (Minsk, Belarus) P.G. Nikitenko, Academician of the NASB (Minsk, Belarus) V.N. Lazhentsev, RAS Corresponding Member, RAS Advisor, Senior Research Associate of the Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North Komi Scientific Centre, Ural Branch of the RAS (Syktyvkar, Russia) J. Sapir, Professor, Director of Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), Head of the Centre d’Etude des Modes d’Industrialisation (CEMI-EHESS) (Paris, France) S.D. Valentey, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Supervisor of Plekhanov Russian University of Economics (Moscow, Russia) D.A. Gaynanov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Institute for Social and Economic Research, Ufa Scientific Center of the RAS (Ufa, Russia) A.E. Dayneko, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Institute of Economics of the NASB (Minsk, Belarus) V.A. Ilyin, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the RAS (Vologda, Russia) M. Kivinen, Professor, Director of the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki (Helsinki, Finland) I.V. Kotlyarov, Doctor of Sociology, Professor, Director of the Institute of Sociology of NASB (Minsk, Belarus) S.V. Kuznetsov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Institute of Problems of Regional Economics (St. Petersburg, Russia) F.D. Larichkin, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola Scientific Centre of the RAS (Apatity, Russia) I.A. Maksimtsev, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Rector of the Saint Petersburg State University of Economics (St. Petersburg, Russia) A.V. Putilov, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Dean at the Department of Management and Economics of High Technologies of National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow, Russia) Yu.Ya. Chukreev, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Director of the Institute of Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North Komi Scientific Centre, Ural Branch of the RAS (Syktyvkar, Russia) A.I. Shishkin, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Chief Research Associate of the Institute of Economics of Karelian Scientific Centre of the RAS (Petrozavodsk, Russia) P. Sztompka, Professor, Dean at the Department of Theoretical Sociology of the Jagiellonian University (Kraków, Poland) Zhang Shuhua, Doctor, Professor (Beijing, China), Deputy Director of the Center for Documentary and Information of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Wu Enyuan (Beijing, China), Professor, the Institute of Russian, Eastern European & Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences D.V. Afanasyev, Ph.D. in Sociology, Associate Professor, Rector of Cherepovets State University (Cherepovets, Russia)

Chief Editor – V.A. Ilyin

Editorial Board: Doctor of Economics, Professor L.A. Anosova, Doctor of Economics, Professor A.G. Vorobyov, Doctor of Economics, Professor E.S. Gubanova, Ph.D. in Economics K.A. Zadumkin, Doctor of Economics K.A. Gulin (Deputy Chief Editor), Ph.D. in Economics M.F. Sychev (Deputy Chief Editor), Ph.D. in Philology O.V. Tret'yakova (Deputy Chief Editor, Executive Editor), Doctor of Economics T.V. Uskova, Doctor of Economics A.A. Shabunova, Ph.D. in Economics G.V. Leonidova, Ph.D. in Economics S.V. Terebova Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of Russian Academy of Sciences (ISEDT RAS), which existed as Vologda Scientific Coordinating Center of Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of RAS until March 2009, is situated on the territory of the Vologda Oblast. V.A. Ilyin, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honored Scientist of Russia, is the permanent director of the Institute. A lot of great scientists have played an important role in the formation and the development of ISEDT RAS as a scientific institution such as: academicians D.S. Lvov, V.L. Makarov, V.I. Mayevsky, A.D. Nekipelov, Y.S. Osipov. Everything that has been done before and is being done nowadays by the personnel of the Institute, it would be impossible without the constant support of the Vologda Oblast’s Government and city leaders. The formation of the scientific personnel with an active life position, a great demand for Institute’s investigation, academic community’s support of the new journal published by ISEDT RAS, which combined efforts of the economic institutes of RAS in the Northwestern Federal District, and furthermore development of international ties have become the main outcomes of the last years.

MAIN RESEARCH DIRECTIONS Due to the Resolution № 96 by the Presidium of Russian Academy of Sciences dated from March, 31 2009 ISEDT RAS carries out investigations in the following fields: • problems of economic growth, scientific basis of regional policy, sustainable development of ter- ritories and municipalities, and transformations of socio-economic space; • regional integration into global economic and political processes, problems of economic security and competitiveness of territorial socio-economic systems; • territorial characteristics of living standards and lifestyle, behavioral strategies and world view of different groups of the Russian society; • development of regional socio-economic systems, implementation of new forms and methods concerning territorial organization of society and economy, development of territories’ recreational area; • socio-economic problems regarding scientific and innovative transformation activities of territories; • elaboration of society’s informatization problems, development of intellectual technologies in information territorial systems, science and education.

INTERNATIONAL TIES AND PROJECTS In order to integrate scientific activities of the Institute’s scholars into global research area, every year international scientific conferences take place, which result in cooperation agreements. Every year ISEDT RAS signs cooperation agreements with different scientific establishments: 2007 – Cooperation agreement is signed with Institute of Sociology, of the National Academy of Sci- ences of Belarus , Center for Sociological and Marketing Investigations at the “International Institute of Humanities and Economics” (Belarus, 2008). 2008 – Protocol of intentions is signed with Alexander’s Institute at the Helsinki University (Finland, 2008). 2009 – Cooperation agreement is signed with Center for System Analysis of Strategic Investigations of NAS (Belarus, 2009). 2010 – Cooperation agreement is signed with Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus (Minsk, 2010). 2011 – Cooperation agreements are signed with National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civiliza- tions (Paris, 2011), Institute of Business Economy at Eszterhazy Karoly College (Hungary, 2011), Repub- lican research and production unitary enterprise “Energy Institute of NAS” (Belarus, 2011). Protocol of intentions are signed with Jiangxi Academy of Social Sciences (China, 2011), Research and Development Center for Evaluation and Socio-Economic Development and the Science Foundation of Abruzzo (Italy, 2011). 2012 – Cooperation agreement is signed with Center for social research at the Dortmund Technical University (Germany, 2012). 2013 – Cooperation agreement is signed with Jiangxi Academy of Social Sciences (China, 2013). July 2013 – The application for research performance by international consortium involving ISEDT RAS within the 7th Framework Programme of European Community.

NEW PUBLICATIONS OF ISEDT RAS Ilyin V.A., Povarova A.I. – Problems of Government Efficiency. Trends in market transformation. The crisis of the budget system. The role of private capital. Strategy-2020: realization problems. Uskova T.V., Selimenkov R.Y., Anischenko A.N., Chekavinskii A.N. – Food security in the region. Leonidova G.V. – Problems of Governance. The education sector areas: state and development prospects. Uskova T.V., Selimenkov R.Y., Chekavinskii A.N. – Agroindustrial complex of the region: state, tendencies, prospects. Uskova T.V., Chekavinskii A.N., Lukin E.V. – Economic development of the city: state, problems, prospects. Shabunova A.A., Kalashnikov K.N., Morev M.V., Kalachikova O.N., Kondakova N.A. – Health and healthcare: training aid for higher education institutions. CONTENT

FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR

Ilyin V.A. Scientific analysis of global challenges for Russia (on the article “How not to lose in the war” by Academician S.Y. Glazyev) ...... 9 Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society ...... 16

THEORETICAL ISSUES

Osipov G.V. Political blackmail – the eve of the global catastrophe ...... 24 Toshchenko J.T. Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990–2012) .... 36

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Rumyantsev A.A. Postindustrial technological way of production: time of emergence ...... 48 Uskova T.V., Chekavinskii A.N. Law on strategic planning in the Russian Federation: advantages and unresolved issues (expert evaluation) ...... 63 Batchaev A.R., Zhikharevich B.S. Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet time: economic strategies and development ...... 68 Didyk V.V., Ryabova L.A. Single-industry towns of the Russian Arctic: development strategy on the case study of the cities/towns in the ...... 84 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Tatarkin D.A., Sidorova E.N. Assessment of the impact of the social reproduction process on economic development of the region (case study of the Sverdlovsk Oblast) ...... 100 Solov’eva T.S., Shabunova A.A. Middle class in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District: expanded reproduction capabilities ...... 113 Popova L.A., Barashkova A.S. Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia ...... 130 Bazueva E.V. Transformation of gender power disposition in modern families as a driving force of institutional changes ...... 148 Kocheshkova L.O. Assessment of professional of the head of a socially-oriented establishment ...... 165

ROUND TABLE: SOCIETY AND SOCIOLOGY IN MODERN RUSSIA

Morev M.V. Importance of sociological knowledge at the present stage of development of the Russian society ...... 179 Lavrenyuk N.M. Possibilities of sociological knowledge to promote intellectual development of the region: experience of practical application in the Republic of Bashkortostan ...... 186 Guzhavina T.A. Trust in the context of non-economic factors in modernization development ...... 190 Irnazarov R.I. Sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan ...... 195 BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY

Rokhchin V.E., Uskov V.S. Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region ...... 198 Sovetov P.M., Volkova S.A., Sovetova N.P. Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development ...... 212 Chekavinskii A.N., Selimenkov R.Y. Modelling of food security in the region ...... 226 Smirennikova E.V., Karmakulova A.V. Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents regulating questions of tourism development in northern regions of Russia ...... 236

MODELLING AND INFORMATICS

Skorodumov P.V. Modelling of economic systems with Petri nets ...... 253

FROM THE EDITOR’S MAILBOX

Letter from the Library of Congress, the USA ...... 260

Requirements to manuscripts ...... 261 Subscription information ...... 266 FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR

Scientific analysis of global challenges for Russia (on the article “How not to lose in the war” by Academician S.Y. Glazyev)

The opening article published in the previous issue of the Journal1 dwelled upon the relevance for modern Russia of the ideas set forth Vladimir Aleksandrovich by the outstanding domestic economist Academician Dmitrii S. L’vov ILYIN Doctor of Economics, in the work “Economic Manifesto – the future of the Russian Professor, Honoured economy”. Scientist of the Russian The work substantiates the notion that Russia must follow its own Federation, path. Dmitrii Semenovich proves that the modern capitalist world is ISEDT RAS Director plagued by contradictions more and more, it facilitates the emergence [email protected] of social conflicts, regional clashes and local wars. He points out that Russia’s future development should focus on the spiritual heritage of , their desire to solve the core issues together, collectively, to ensure social justice, strengthening the role of public administration in the economy and social life. This article especially stresses that in recent years the ideas of D.S. L’vov have been increasingly developed in the Russian science by his students and followers. Academician Sergey Glazyev is one of them2.

1 See: Ilyin V.A. Rossiya dolzhna prodvigat’sya po svoemu puti [Russia Must Go Its Own Way]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 2014, no.3, pp. 915. 2 To date, S.Yu. Glazyev has published more than 130 works on economic, financial, and social issues. They include: Teoriya dolgosrochnogo tekhnikoekonomicheskogo razvitiya [The Theory of Long-Term Economic Development]. Moscow: VlaDar, 1993; Blagosostoyanie i spravedlivost’. Kak pobedit’ bednost’ v bogatoi strane [Welfare and Justice. How to Overcome Poverty in a Rich Country].B.S.G.PRESS, 2003; Vybor budushchego [The Choice of the Future]. Moscow: Algoritm, 2005; Sotsialisticheskii otvet liberal’noi globalizatsii [A Socialist Reply to Liberal Globalization]. APN, 2006; Modernizatsiya rossiiskoi ekonomiki na osnove novogo tekhnologicheskogo uklada kak klyuchevoe napravlenie antikrizisnoi politiki. Analiticheskii doklad po programme Rossiiskogo gumanitarnogo nauchnogo fonda (proekt № 09 02 95650. dokl.). 2009 [Modernization of the Russian Economy on the Basis of a New Technological Paradigm as a Key Direction of the Anti-Crisis Policy. Analytical Report on the Program of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (project No. 090295650. Rep.). 2009]; Strategiya operezhayushchego razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh global’nogo krizisa [The Strategy for Advanced Development of Russia in the Conditions of the Global Crisis]. Moscow: Ekonomika, 2010; Uroki ocherednoi rossiiskoi revolyutsii. Krakh liberal’noi utopii i shans na ekonomicheskoe chudo [Lessons of One More Russian Revolution. The Collapse of the Liberal Utopia and the Chance for an Economic Miracle]. Ekonomicheskaya gazeta [Economic Newspaper], 2011; Politika ekonomicheskogo rosta v usloviyakh global’nogo krizisa: doklad (2012) [The Policy of Economic Growth in Conditions of the Global Crisis: Report (2012)], etc.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 9 Scientific analysis of global challenges for Russia...

In 2013 a report of the Russian Academy of the value of this article does not end here. It is Sciences “Russia on its way to the modern, distinguished by extensive argumentation, by dynamic and efficient economy”3 was pre- the use of classical and modern theoretical-and- pared under the editorship of Academi- methodological approaches to the problem, by cians A.D. Nekipelov, V.V. Ivanter and the clear structure, by the application of tools S.Yu. Glazyev. The report was submitted of the modern scientific analysis of economic, to the President of the Russian Federation social and political phenomena. V.V. Putin in February 2014 and it was discussed The article opens with an extensive section, at length at the meeting of the President with which describes the fields of conflict in the the expert group of economists of the Russian Ukrainian crisis. Academy of Sciences4. S.Yu. Glazyev believes that the first notional S.Yu. Glazyev’s economic and political field of conflict here refers to the political erudition, his constant involvement in the structure of . This field was initially scientific analysis of the processes taking place formed on the background of long-standing in our country, given its position in an in- demands of the population in Donbass and creasingly globalizing world, were clearly other areas in the South-East of Ukraine for manifested in his recent article “How not to federalization and recognition of the Russian lose the war”5, which examines the Ukrainian language by the Ukrainian government. crisis in the context of global economic changes The second notional field of conflict is the that create objective prerequisites for escalation so-called European choice of Ukraine. It was of political and military tension in international supported by activists of Maidan and by relations, forecasts its implications for modern European officials and politicians, who support Russia, sets out a vision of the structure and the opposition. essence of measures aimed to overcome their These two conflicts cannot be resolved by negative impact on Russia’s future. violence. The war in Ukraine is not aimed at In our opinion, the article contains the that. Glazyev proves that conceptually, it has science-based formulation of these issues. It Nazism as its core. The propaganda campaign not only provides an analysis of the current adopted by Kiev junta fills public consciousness geopolitical position of Russia; it is also a major with misanthropic notions concerning their step in scientific research into the issue, many opponents by calling them, say, “subhumans”. things that were not spoken of until recently are They are denied the right to express their called by their proper names in the article. But position, they are allowed to be burnt alive and killed. It is the Nazi semantic field that 3 Rossiya na puti k sovremennoi dinamichnoi i effektivnoi generates major tension in the conflict and ekonomike [Russia on the Way to a Modern Dynamic and Efficient Economy]. Ed. by Academicians A.D. Nekipelov, explains the use of violence for its resolution. V.V. Ivanter, S.Yu. Glazyev. Russian Academy of Sciences. The essence of the question, according to Moscow, 2013. 93 p. S.Yu. Glazyev, lies in the conflict field that has 4 Transcript of the Meeting of V.V. Putin and economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences on February 19, 2014. been present for many centuries. This is the Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/transcripts/20291 field of aggression of the West against Russia. 5 Full text of the article (over 90 standard typewritten pages) is available online at: http://www.glazev.ru/sodr_ It is the United States that is currently ssn/368/. bearing the banner of this aggression. Americans

10 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

are truly convinced of their superiority over all At the same time, according to Glazyev, as other peoples of the world. The cult of for the world economy in general, we can talk American exceptionalism is the foundation about one of the three scenarios for further that allows the U.S. authorities to punish other development of the events in the medium term. peoples up to physical destruction, in case of The optimistic scenario envisages the their unwillingness to submit. The very sense of transfer of the crisis into a controlled mode, submission is determined by economic interests allowing the leading countries to channel the of American capital, which provide for the full decline in obsolete sectors of the economy and in opening of the borders for American goods peripheral regions, and to allocate the remaining and capital, for the introduction of American resources to the rise of innovation activity and standards of living, for the use of the U.S. rapid growth of the new technological order. dollar as a reserve currency and the means of The catastrophic scenario implies the international payments. collapse of the existing U.S.-centered financial In full compliance with the Anglo-Saxon system, the formation of relatively self- tradition “divide and rule”, American ideo- sufficient regional monetary and financial logists fill Ukrainian Nazis with a cult of hatred systems and the destruction of the most part and superiority over the Russians, who were of international capital. proclaimed guilty for all the troubles and And finally, the inertial scenario envisages offences of the Ukrainian people. the increasing chaos and destruction of many Support provided to Ukrainian nationalists institutions both in the core and on the by Europe is also stimulated by America’s periphery of the world economy, new centers interests in ensuring its global dominance, of economic growth will emerge in the which is currently manifested virtually in countries that will be the first to ride on a new all possible spheres – economic, financial, long wave of economic growth. This scenario military, and ideological. S.Yu. Glazyev is the most interesting for American elites. provides extensive analytical data that prove Having performed a comprehensive analysis irrefutably that the U.S. is the only force that of the nature and content of the strategy and benefits from the escalation of the Ukrainian tactics of American politicians, S.Yu. Glazyev conflict. proves that the Ukrainian crisis was initially An objective basis for expansion of the con- organized by the USA against Russia. flict into global political and military tensions The direct goal of the crisis was to separate consists in the problems associated with the Ukraine from Russia; this separation is replacement of the structures of existing tech- formalized by the subordination of Ukraine to nological mode and the formation of the struc- the European Union in the form of association, tures of the new one. by which Ukraine gives its sovereign rights in By instigating a major war in Europe, the the regulation of foreign economic activity, U.S. intends to survive the crisis that is foreign and defense policy, and other issues covering the country due to fading efficiency including social, to Brussels. Essentially, this of the dominant technological mode, and leads to European occupation of Ukraine, and then to reach a new long wave of economic Euro-fascism becomes a means of American growth. aggression.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 11 Scientific analysis of global challenges for Russia...

The current outrageous anti-Russian its peaceful alternative to the arms race hysteria in Ukrainian media looks like a in stimulating the development of a new response to the Crimean drama only to a technological mode. superficial observer. In fact, as S.Yu. Glazyev At the same time S.Yu. Glazyev notes: points out, there emerges a Ukrainian version “Even if we manage to prevent the inter- of Euro-fascism as the main tool for instigating nationalization of the Ukrainian conflict and a world war against Russia. curb the outbreak of war against Russia in Being an objective and responsible scientist, Europe, the risk of its instigation will remain S.Yu. Glazyev focuses mainly on what should until the U.S. does not abandon its claims to be done to prevent a war with Russia, and if the global domination. The U.S. is pushed toward war breaks out, how to win it. a world war by the above objective regularities According to the Academician, in order to of global economic and political dynamics. prevent the war, first of all is necessary to Understanding them allows us to forecast undermine the forces that incite it – economic, political and military activity for the next informational, political and ideological decade”. foundations of their influence. The article sets According to the forecasts of long cycles of out ways, methods and tools that can contribute political activity described in the article, the to the erosion of these foundations. peak of international military and political S.Yu. Glazyev points out that in order to conflicts will fall on 2016–2018. According find a successful solution to this issue, it is to the same forecasts, the most dangerous extremely important to form a global anti-war period for Russia will start in the early 2020s, coalition that should offer clear principles when developed countries and China will of streamlining and harmonization of socio- begin their technological rearmament, and cultural and economic relations in the world. the United States and other Western countries Their foundation is the sum of values shared will come out of the 2008–2018 depression by the main cultural-civilizational societies. and will make a new technological leap. These values include, in particular, the To avoid Russia’s lagging behind in this principles of non-discrimination (equality dangerous time (according to Glazyev, it is of people, without division into “us” and the most negative scenario that leads to the “them”), fairness and responsibility, social collapse of the country), it is necessary to protection mechanisms, legal form of the rights conduct a system internal and external policy and freedoms of citizens. aimed to strengthen national security and S.Yu. Glazyev distinguishes the main economic self-sufficiency, to enhance Russia’s components of the anti-crisis program of the international competitiveness and promote the anti-war coalition. It should be based on the priority development of national economy, principles of mutual benefit and fair competition mobilization of society and modernization of in global financial and economic relations, the military-industrial complex. by eliminating the monopolization of the All this is crucially important for our functions of international economic exchange country in the current situation: a coordinated in anyone’s private or national interests. large-scale attack has been launched against The anti-war coalition should put forward Russia by the U.S. and its allies. An economic

12 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

war has been actually waged under the guise of As the author notes, the implementation of sanctions against us. The purpose of this war is these and other measures of advanced complete destruction of modern Russia. It is development and modernization of Russia’s critically important for the U.S., after it broke economy requires great coherence and certain into the sphere of Russia’s vital interests, to solidarity of the main social groups of Russian support and accelerate the implementation of citizens. This implies drastic reduction of the strategy of the elite, who seized power in social inequality that generates antagonistic Kiev6. and alienated attitude of the citizens toward Glazyev proposes strategic and tactical the policy of the state. measures that will allow us to win the war. These According to S.Yu. Glazyev, these goals can measures are as follows: be achieved if the following measures are – access to the development of mineral implemented: resources and other strategic industries should – increase of the subsistence level up to be granted only to the companies fully owned the real value of the basic food basket, and the by Russia; revision of its content taking into account the – the end owners of strategic enterprises actual consumption patterns of the people, should register their property in Russia; their needs in health and education; – companies located in the offshores – increase of the minimum wage up to the should pay taxes in full; poverty line; – the channels of illegal and half-legal – creation of new jobs, promotion of small withdrawal of money abroad should be closed; and medium business; – taxes on financial speculation and on – introduction of the progressive scale of export of capital should be introduced; taxation of income, inheritance and luxury – dollar assets should be converted into goods; gold and the currency of friendly countries; – creation of the necessary conditions – export of hydrocarbons, metals and other for enhancement of human capital and products should be carried out only in rubles; improvement of moral climate in the society – state-owned companies should stop through the revival of traditional spiritual values. taking foreign loans. At that it is the system of public administration 6 In this regard, we cannot but agree with the conclusion of that requires moral rehabilitation in the first S.M. Mironov, the head of the faction of the party “Just Russia” in the . He says that Kiev regime is preparing for a place. big war. Under the patronage of the United States of America This list is not new; it summarizes the vision and under the supervision of American instructors it can of the main directions of the strategy of actions embark on any power gamble. See: Speech of S.M. Mironov at the Meeting of V.V. Putin with members of political parties for the Russian authorities; these directions are represented in the State Dumа. Transcript of the Meeting. advocated by representatives of Russian science Available at: http://news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/46451. Many other well-known experts, specialists and analysts and the public, as they consider it extremely speak about the reality of military claims. For instance, V. dangerous to move toward further liberalization Shurygin concludes: “It is high time to realize that we are at war. But not with Ukraine, which in its current condition would of economic and social life in Russia. In not survive even for six months, but with the strongest world this regard we note that the solutions to the power – the U.S., which is behind it” (Shurygin V. Boinya № problems identified by S.Yu. Glazyev were 4 [Massacre No. 4]. Zavtra [Tomorrow], 2014, no.32 (1081), August, p. 2). constantly in the focus of attention of Russia’s

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 13 Scientific analysis of global challenges for Russia...

scientific community7. The majority of issues The expert community, and the parlia- of our Journal are devoted to them8. mentary parties note that V.V. Putin, as the top Over a month has passed since the government official, pursues a policy of realism publication of S.Yu. Glazyev’s article. Its full more actively, and it gains support of most of or concise text is posted on numerous Russian Russia’s population – 85.3%, according to and foreign websites. The scientist’s opinion WCIOM9, which exceeds the level of 2007 is actively supported by sensible people. But (80.8%). actual measures that are being implemented in V.V. Putin outlined the policy of realism at the present-day life of our country, in the policy the Munich Conference on Security Policy in and practice of its leadership – this is what is February 2007, when he expressed his view on crucially important. the essence of American and European policy

7 Aganbegyan A.G. Sotsial’noekonomicheskoe razvitie Rossii: analiz i prognoz [Socio-Economic Development of Rus- sia: Analysis and Forecast]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of Forecasting], 2014, no.4; Amosov A. Ob ekonomicheskom mekhanizme novogo industrial’nogo razvitiya [About the Economic Mechanism of the New Industrial Development]. Ekonomist [The Economist], 2014, no.2; Bobkov V. O sotsial’nom izmerenii novogo etapa razvitiya [About the Social Dimension of the New Stage of Development]. Ekonomist [The Economist], 2013, no.5; Gurvich E., Prilepskii I. Kak obespechit’ vneshnyuyu ustoi- chivost’ rossiiskoi ekonomiki [How to Secure External Sustainability of the Russian Economy]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2013, no.9; Delyagin M. Krakh optimisticheskikh illyuzii i otpravnoi punkt rossiiskogo vyzdorovleniya [Destruction of Optimistic Illusions and Starting Point for Economic Recovery]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal [Russian Economic Journal], 2014, no.1; Ivanter V.V., Uzyakov M.N., Ksenofontov M.Yu., Shirov A.A. et al. Novaya ekonomicheskaya politika – politika ekonomicheskogo rosta [New Economic Policy – the Policy of Economic Growth]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of Forecasting], 2013, no.6; Idrisov G., Sinel’nikov Murylev S. Byudzhetnaya politika i ekonomicheskii rost [Budget Policy and Economic Growth]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2013, no.8; Kvint V.A., Okrepilov V.V. Kachestvo zhizni i tsennosti v natsional’nykh strategiyakh razvitiya [Quality of Life and Values in National Development Strategies]. Vestnik RAN [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2014, vol. 84, no.5; Kleiner G. Kakaya ekonomika nuzhna Rossii i dlya chego (opyt sistemnogo issledovaniya) [What Kind of Economy Does Russia Need and for What Purpose? (An Attempt of System Analysis)]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2013, no.10; Knyazev Yu. Perspektivy rossiiskoi ekonomiki: shans na uskorenie [Prospects of Rus- sia’s Economy: a Chance of Acceleration]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika [Society and Economics], 2014, no. 23; Komkov N.I. Kom- pleksnoe prognozirovanie nauchno tekhnicheskogo razvitiya: opyt i uroki [Complex Forecasting of Scientific-and-technological Development: Experience and Lessons]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of Forecasting], 2014, no.3. 8 These problems, in particular, were the subject of the following publications in the Journal’s issues of 2012–2013 and the first half of the current year: Gubanov S.S. Neoindustrial’naya model’ razvitiya i ee sistemnyi algoritm [Neo-Industrial Develop- ment Model and Its System Algorithm], 2014, no.3; Lokosov V.V. Perekhod ot ekstensivnoi k intensivnoi demograficheskoi politike [The Transition from Extensive to Intensive Demographic Policy], 2014, no.3; Shabunova A.A., Lastochkina M.A. Preodolenie sotsial’nogo neravenstva kak impul’s k sotsiokul’turnoi modernizatsii [Overcoming Social Inequality as an Impetus to Socio- Cultural Modernization], 2014, no.3; Gusakov M.A. Vyyavlenie napravlenii i putei transformatsii nauchno-innovatsionnogo prostranstva regionov raznogo tipa [Identification of Directions and Ways to Transform the Scientific and Innovation Space in Different Regions], 2014, no.3; Ilyin V.A., Shabunova A.A. Sotsiologicheskoe izmerenie effektivnosti gosudarstvennogo uprav- leniya [Sociological Assessment of Public Administration Efficiency], 2014, no.2; Popova L.A. Otsenka effektivnosti gosudarst- vennykh demograficheskikh initsiativ [Evaluation of Efficiency of the Public Demographic Initiatives], 2014, no.1; Lapin N.I. O strategii integrirovannoi modernizatsii [On the Strategy of Integrated Modernization], 2014, no.1; Ilyin V.A. Novaya povestka dnya i effektivnost’ gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [New Agenda and State Management Efficiency], 2013, no.5; Povarova A.I. Regional’nyi byudzhet 2013–2015: stabil’nost’ ili vyzhivanie? [Regional Budget for 2013 – 2015: Stability or Survival?], 2013, no.1; Uskova T.V. O roli investitsii v obespechenii ustoichivogo ekonomicheskogo rosta [On the Role of Investments in Sustain- able Economic Growth], 2013, no.6; Terebova S.V. Malyi biznes kak faktor povysheniya urovnya zanyatosti i dokhodov naseleniya regiona [Small Business as the Factor Increasing the Employment Rate and Incomes of the Population], 2013, no.5; Povarova A.I. Neeffektivnoe administrirovanie NDS kak ugroza ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossii [Inefficient VAT Administration as a Threat to Russia’s Economic Security], 2013, no.2; Selin V.S., Selin I.V. Otsenka vozmozhnostei i faktorov innovatsionnogo razvitiya regional’noi ekonomiki [Assessment of Opportunities and Factors Promoting Innovation Development of the Regional Economy], 2013, no.4; Ilyin V.A. Na trudnom puti k sil’nomu grazhdanskomu obshchestvu [On the Difficult Way to Strong Civil Society], 2012, no.6; etc. 9 Database of the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. Available at: http://www.wciom.ru

14 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

in relation to Russia. It was then that he On March 21, 2014 the relevant law was pointed out that a unipolar model is not only signed by the RF President. Thus V.V. Putin unacceptable, but completely impossible in the has shown the Russian Federation in its new modern world. He sharply criticized the use of capacity – as a country that not only wants, double standards in the international policy of but is able to defend its national interests. the United States and its allies. On August 14, 2014 V.V. Putin had The President’s policy of realism manifested a meeting in Yalta with members of political itself in the new economic policy of our country parties represented in the Russian Federation set out by V.V. Putin in his pre-election articles State Dumа; the President again highlighted as a presidential candidate and in the Decrees of that special attention should be focused on May 2012, signed on the day of his presidential the priorities of solving current problems of inauguration. The solution of these problems Russia’s internal development: “Regardless is essential to Russia’s national security in the of the external political and economic coming decade. situation, the most important thing for us The manifestation of realism can be found right now, as always, are our internal affairs, in the country’s acute problems and their deep our goals, concerns and objectives that are set internal reasons that were highlighted by the before us by the people of Russia, the citizens President in his speech at the Valdai forum in of Russia. We must focus on resolving our September 2013. The provision of strategic national problems and challenges. Our future security and competitiveness of Russia in the is only in our hands. We must ensure high- 21st century “is impossible without spiritual, quality governance and work by political and cultural and national self-determination. civil institutions. And most importantly, we Without this we will not be able to withstand must provide high living standards for Russian internal and external challenges, nor we will citizens”11. succeed in global competitions”. This requires It seems that the scientific analysis of that Russia “has to have military, technological international, political and economic situation and economic strength, but nevertheless the in the country and in the world, which has main thing that will determine success is the been made by Academician S.Yu. Glazyev in quality of citizens, the quality of society: their his article “How not to lose in the war”, as intellectual, spiritual and moral strength”10. well as the analysis of possible development After the coup in Ukraine, the President of scenarios and their impact on the economic the Russian Federation once again exercised and political situation in Russia provides a the policy of real actions. It took just six days good basis for further development of a clear to carry out all the necessary legal procedures program of actions for Russia’s President in accordance with the Constitution of the and for the country’s political leadership; a Russian Federation for admission of two new program that will help neutralize explicit and entities, the and the city implicit threats, both external and internal, to of , to the Russian Federation. the national security of Russia.

10 Putin V.V. Speech at the Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club on September 19, 2013. Available at: http:// www.cremlin.ru/news/19243 11 The quoted text is available at the official website of the http://www.kremlin.ru/news/46451

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 15 Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society

As in the previous issues, we publish the results of the public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society conducted by ISEDT RAS in the Vologda Oblast1. The following tables show the dynamics of a number of parameters indicating the social feeling and socio-political sentiment of the Vologda Oblast population in June – August 2014 and also on the average for the last six polls. These data are compared with the data for 2013, 2011 (when D.A. Medvedev’s presidential term was due to expire), and 2007 (when V.V. Putin’s second presidency was coming to an end). We do not provide comparisons with 2012, since it was an incomplete year of V.V. Putin’s presidency (his inauguration took place on May 7, 2012). Estimation of performance of the authorities Despite the fact that international political situation is rather tense (crisis in Ukraine, bilateral sanctions of Russia, and the EU and USA), the assessment of the federal and regional authorities in June – August 2014 did not change. The support of the RF President remains high (66%) as well as that of the Chairman of the RF Government (55%). The nationwide proportion of positive assessments of the President’s activity for the last two months has not changed and amounted to 85% (according to WCIOM). We recall that the growth in the support of the RF President has been very rapid since the beginning of the year. During the first half of 2014 the approval of V. Putin’s activity as head of state has increased by 22 percentage points in Russia as a whole (from 64 to 86%) and by 11 percentage points in the Vologda Oblast (from 56 to 67%). The nationwide support of the President in 2007 was higher than that in the region by 6 p.p. (81 and 75%, respectively), and in August 2014 – by 19 p.p. (85% and 66%, respectively). This is largely due to regional specifics: drastic consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis for the Vologda Oblast, and the change of the leadership in the RF subject at the end of 2011.

1 The polls are held six times a year in Vologda, Cherepovets, and in eight districts of the oblast (, Velikoustyugsky District, Vozhegodsky District, Gryazovetsky District, , Nikolsky District, Tarnogsky District and Sheksninsky District). The method of the survey is a questionnaire poll by place of residence of respondents. The volume of a sample population is 1500 people aged from 18 and older. The sample is purposeful and quoted. Representativeness of the sample is ensured by the observance of the proportions between the urban and rural population, the proportions between the inhabitants of settlements of various types (rural communities, small and medium-sized cities), age and sex structure of the oblast’s adult population. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. More details on the results of ISEDT RAS polls are available at http://www.vscc.ac.ru/.

16 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

The performance of the Vologda Oblast is approved at a somewhat lower level (39%). It should be noted that the support of the Vologda Oblast Governor stabilized after a long decline in October 2013 – June 2014 (the percentage of positive assessments during this time has decreased from 46 to 39%). Apparently, the fact that the support of the region’s head in August 2014 remains at the level of June is connected with the upcoming elections of heads of the Subjects of Federation (September 14, 2014 will be the single day of voting), and also with O. Kuvshinnikov’s statements about the readiness of the region’s economy to function effectively under the sanctions.

How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents) Dynamics (+/-), Average Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. the last 6 surveys Indicator 2007* 2011* 2013* for the last 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 in comparison with 6 surveys 2013 2011 2007 RF President I approve 75.3 58.7 55.3 54.3 57.3 56.1 62.8 66.6 66.4 60.6 +5 +2 -15 I do not approve 11.5 25.6 29.4 28.7 28.9 29.3 25.4 21.8 19.3 25.6 -4 0 +14 Chairman of the RF Government* I approve - 59.3 48.9 49.0 51.1 49.3 52.5 55.8 55.2 52.2 +3 -7 - I do not approve - 24.7 32.8 30.6 32.5 32.9 30.9 26.4 26.8 30.0 -3 +5 - Governor I approve 55.8 45.7 44.4 45.9 44.1 42.8 41.6 38.5 38.8 42.0 -2 -4 -14 I do not approve 22.2 30.5 33.2 32.4 35.3 36.9 39.0 40.9 40.1 37.4 +4 +7 +15 * included into the survey since 2008

For the last two months there has been a decline in the share of the oblast residents, who think that the President’s performance is successful in strengthening Russia’s international standing (from 54 to 51%), in imposing order in the country (from 50 to 48%), in the protection of democracy and strengthening freedoms of citizens (from 40 to 38%). The level of approval of the President’s work in the direction of economic recovery and enhancement of citizens’ welfare did not change significantly in June – August 2014 (35–36%). No positive changes in the assessment of the RF President’s performance in coping with key problems of the country are observed for the first time since the beginning of the year. However, it should be noted that, in spite of the tense political situation in the country and abroad, there is no significant deterioration in the public opinion.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 17 In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Dynamics (+/-), Average Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. the last 6 surveys Indicator 2007 2011 2013 for the last 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 in comparison with 6 surveys 2013 2011 2007

Strengthening Russia’s international standing

Successful 58.4 46.2 45.7 47.7 47.5 45.9 48.6 53.7 50.9 49.1 +3 +3 -9

Unsuccessful 24.9 33.7 36.2 33.7 35.8 35.7 35.5 31.7 30.0 33.7 -3 0 +9

Index of success 133.5 112.5 109.5 114.0 111.7 110.2 113.1 122.0 120.9 115.3 +6 +3 -18

Imposing order in the country

Successful 53.2 36.6 39.4 41.7 44.5 42.7 46.7 49.5 47.5 45.4 +6 +9 -8

Unsuccessful 34.0 50.0 47.5 46.7 45.5 43.7 40.9 39.5 37.8 42.4 -5 -8 +8

Index of success 119.2 86.6 91.9 95.0 99.0 99.0 105.8 110.0 109.7 103.1 +11 +17 -16

Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms

Successful 44.4 32.4 31.8 33.5 32.8 32.3 36.3 40.1 37.6 35.4 +4 +3 -9

Unsuccessful 37.0 48.3 51.0 50.9 51.6 50.1 48.7 43.9 43.7 48.2 -3 0 +11

Index of success 107.4 84.1 80.8 82.6 81.2 82.2 87.6 96.2 93.9 87.3 +7 +3 -20

Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare

Successful 47.2 30.7 31.3 31.9 32.6 31.5 34.9 35.8 35.1 33.6 +2 +3 -14

Unsuccessful 39.1 56.1 56.8 57.7 59.7 57.1 54.3 53.5 50.2 55.4 -1 -1 +16

Index of success 108.1 74.6 74.5 74.2 72.9 74.4 80.6 82.3 84.9 78.2 +4 +4 -30

* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for the last 6 surveys.

As for the people’s opinion concerning political parties, the party “United Russia” remains the leader. In June – August the level of its support did not change significantly (33–34%). The ratings of other parties are also stable: KPRF – 9%, LDPR – 7%, Just Russia – 4%. For the last two months there have been virtually no changes in the share of the oblast residents, who find it difficult to choose a political power that expresses their interests (11–12%). In the course of 2014 there has been a steady increase in the people’s support of United Russia (from February to June – from 28 to 34%). The positions of the rest of the parties from the beginning of the year do not change.

18 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Election Election Dynamics (+/-), to the to the the last 6 surveys Average RF State RF State Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. in comparison with Party 2007 2011 2013 for the last Duma Duma 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 6 surveys 2007, 2011, 2013 2011 2007 fact fact

United Russia 30.2 60.5 31.1 33.4 29.4 26.9 29.5 28.3 29.5 32.7 34.3 30.2 +1 -1 0

KPRF 7.0 9.3 10.3 16.8 11.3 11.9 11.8 10.9 10.7 9.8 9.1 10.7 -1 0 +4

LDPR 7.5 11.0 7.8 15.4 7.2 8.4 8.1 8.9 8.3 6.2 6.9 7.8 +1 00

Just Russia 7.8 8.8 5.6 27.2 4.6 4.0 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.7 -1 -2 -4

Other 1.8 – 1.9 – 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0 -2 -1

No party 17.8 – 29.4 – 34.9 37.3 34.4 35.2 34.8 36.0 35.0 35.5 +1 +6 +18

It is difficult 21.2 – 13.2 – 10.2 10.5 10.9 12.7 13.1 11.8 10.9 11.7 +2 -2 -10 to answer

The indicators of social condition have remained stable since April 2014: the share of positive assessments of social mood is 71%, the share of positive assessments of the stock of patience in 81–83%. Since December 2013 the social self-identification of the population has not changed significantly: the proportion of the oblast residents who consider themselves “people of average income” is 42–44%, the share of those who consider themselves to be “poor and extremely poor” is 47–50%. At the same time, despite stable assessments of the social condition of the population, August 2014, compared with June, witnessed a noticeable decrease in the index of consumer sentiment (from 91 to 87 p.), which indicates the decrease in consumer activity in the region. More likely, it is due to the tense economic situation in the region associated with the debt burden of the regional budget, as well as the uncertainty of the population about the consequences of Russia’s sanctions (mainly, the ban on the delivery of a number of key food products (beef, pork, vegetables, fruits, poultry, fish, seafood, cheese, milk and dairy products) from Australia, Canada, Norway, the USA and EU countries) for the consumer market.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 19 Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents) Dynamics (+/-), Average the last 6 surveys Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. June Aug. for Indicator 2007 2011 2013 in comparison with 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 the last 6 surveys 2013 2011 2007

Mood Usual condition, good 63.6 63.1 68.6 71.5 69.6 65.1 69.3 71.1 70.5 69.5 +1 +6 +6 mood Feeling stress, anger, fear, 27.8 28.9 26.2 24.0 26.2 27.1 24.9 23.7 25.1 25.2 -1 -4 -3 depression Stock of patience Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s 74.1 74.8 79.3 81.6 83.1 79.8 81.3 81.0 82.5 81.6 +2 +7 +8 possible to stand it It’s impossible to bear 13.6 15.3 14.2 12.3 12.0 12.3 11.1 13.4 12.8 12.3 -2 -3 -1 such plight Social self-identification The share of people who consider themselves to 48.2 43.1 43.9 45.7 43.7 44.2 43.1 42.0 44.1 43.8 0 +1 -4 have average income The share of people who consider themselves to be 42.4 44.3 46.9 45.4 46.7 46.9 49.1 48.4 49.6 47.7 +1 +3 +5 poor and extremely poor Consumer sentiment index Index value, points 105.9 89.6 90.3 90.4 87.9 91.5 90.3 90.5 87.1 89.6 -1 0 -16

Assessment of the events in Ukraine Most of the Vologda Oblast residents approve of the policy of Russia toward Ukraine. Their share has slightly increased in June – August 2014 (from 65 to 67%). 10% of the region’s population has the opposite opinion. For the last two months, the support of Russia’s policy in relation to the events in Ukraine has increased in the majority of the socio-demographic groups, especially among women (from 64 to 69%), people aged under 30 (from 61 to 67%), persons with secondary vocational education (from 60 to 69%), also among 20% of the poorest (from 43 to 48%), and the residents of Cherepovets (from 73 to 77%).

20 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

Do you support Russia’s policy concerning the events in Ukraine? (as a percentage of the number of respondents) I support I do not support Categories of population June 2014 August 2014 June 2014 August 2014 Sex Men 66.4 64.0 11.0 13.0 Women 63.8 68.5 9.2 8.2 Age Under 30 61.0 67.0 6.9 8.5 30–55 65.2 66.3 10.6 11.2 Over 5 67.5 66.4 11.3 10.3 Education Secondary and incomplete secondary 61.5 58.5 9.2 12.7 Secondary vocational 59.6 68.9 12.1 10.6 Higher and incomplete higher 74.0 72.7 8.9 7.5 Income groups 20% of the poorest people 42.5 47.8 18.7 16.4 60% of the people with middle-sized 68.1 69.3 8.9 10.3 income 220% of the most prosperous people 83.9 80.2 5.1 5.6 Territories Vologda 72.6 71.9 5.5 9.0 Cherepovets 72.9 77.0 8.5 7.1 Districts 56.5 57.6 13.2 12.8 Oblast 65.0 66.5 10.0 10.3

Over the past two months, the proportion of people, who learn about the Ukrainian events from TV programs, has increased from 80 to 87% in the Vologda Oblast and from 91 to 94% nationwide. 29% of the region’s residents get the information about the development of the Ukrainian conflict from friends, relatives and neighbors. This is higher than in June (24%), and, in general, corresponds to the national average level (27%). The region’s residents get the information about the events in Ukraine from online newspapers and social networks on the Internet significantly more often than the residents nationwide (22% – in the Vologda Oblast, 11% – in Russia). The proportion of the oblast residents, who are not interested in the development of the situation in Ukraine, decreased noticeably for the period from June to August 2014 (from 14 to 8%), but it remains higher than the national average value (1%).

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 21 What are your main sources of information concerning the events in Ukraine and the Crimea?* (several answer options; as a percentage of the number of respondents) ISEDT RAS Levada Center Answer option June 2014 August 2014 June 2014 August 2014 TV 79.5 87.0 91 94 Friends, relatives, neighbors 24.0 28.5 26 27 Newspapers 27.9 21.8 9 11 Web-based social networking services 24.1 21.5 10 11 Internet media (newspapers, magazines, information portals) 13.6 14.7 17 18 Radio 14.9 11.9 11 15 Periodicals 4.5 2.6 2 2 Other 0.1 0.3 1 1 I am not interested in it 13.9 7.5 1 1 * In order of prevalence in the Vologda Oblast according to the data as of August 2014.

In comparison with June, in August the proportion of the oblast residents, who believe that the federal media are objective in their coverage of the events in Ukraine, increased (from 56 to 58%). In Russia as a whole, the share of those, who think the same, decreased slightly (from 79 to 74%). More than half of the oblast residents believe that the foreign media provide biased information about the development of the Ukrainian conflict. The proportion of those, who support this opinion, increased in June – August 2014 from 52 to 60%. This viewpoint is shared by 64% of the population nationwide (as of June 2014).

In your opinion, how impartial are the following mass media when covering the events in Ukraine and the Crimea? (as a percentage of the number of respondents) ISEDT RAS Levada Center Answer option June 2014 August 2014 June 2014 August 2014 Federal Russian mass media On the whole and mostly impartial 56.2 57.6 79 74 Not very impartial, completely biased 26.8 25.4 14 17 Index, points 129.4 132.2 165 157 It is difficult to answer 17.0 17.0 7 10 Foreign mass media* On the whole and mostly impartial 22.4 18.1 18 n.a. Not very impartial, completely biased 52.3 59.7 64 n.a. Index, points 70.1 58.4 54 n.a. It is difficult to answer 25.3 22.2 18 n.a. * In July 2014 Levada Center did not ask the question concerning the impartiality of the foreign media in covering the events in Ukraine.

22 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast FROM THE CHIEF EDITOR V.A. Ilyin

Conclusion The results of the surveys conducted in August 2014 show that the level of approval of the performance of Russian President (66%) and the federal authorities remains high, despite the tense situation on the international political arena. The role of economic factors in shaping public opinion is still crucial even under the conditions of bilateral sanctions (for example, according to WCIOM, 95% of Russians do not feel the impact of sanctions, although only 13% of the population have not heard about them). The approval of Russia’s policy in relation to the events in Ukraine continues to grow on the regional level (65–67%), as well as the support of the federal mass media in covering issues related to the development of the “Ukrainian conflict” (56–58%). Assessment of the Governor’s performance for the last two months has not changed (the approval level is 39%), which, apparently, is connected with the upcoming election of heads of regions on September 14. In August 2014, compared with June, consumer activism somewhat declined (the index decreased from 91 to 87 p.), however this has not affected the positive assessments of social mood (71%) and stock of patience (83%), which, as before, prevail over negative judgments (25 and 13%, respectively).

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 23 THEORETICAL ISSUES

UDC 327, LBC 66.4(2Rus) © Osipov G.V. Political blackmail – the eve of the global catastrophe

Gennadii Vasil’evich OSIPOV RAS Academician, Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences (32A, Leninsky Avenue, Moscow, 119991, Russia)

Abstract. The article by the leading Russian sociologist and political scientist, who has been studying Russia-U.S. relations for decades, raises an acute issue concerning the necessity of immediate cessation of confrontation between the U.S. and Russia and transition to joint control over the processes going on in the world, and establishment of the multipolar model of the global community. The author provides numerous examples of interaction between the superpowers and the newly emerged countries, former Soviet republics; he shows that particular threat comes from the quasi-states of the former USSR, who seek to fuel the U.S.-Russian confrontation for their own selfish purposes. This policy was manifested especially clearly in the actions of the “Maidan” authorities in Ukraine, who launched the armed terror against its own people in the East of the country to accommodate the U.S. interests and the NATO alliance controlled by this country. The author believes that the response of Russia to such hostile actions of the USA and their Ukrainian proteges should be adequate; it should be composed and peacekeeping, but when the “red” line is crossed – hard and adamant. The author believes that, in connection with the existing situation, the issue of myth-making is coming to the fore. One should be more resolute in reviewing the myths that have nothing to do with the truth, in particular, those concerning the “unbreakable Slavic unity”. The historical memory of inter-ethnic relations between the Russians and their neighbors should be restored in full, without ignoring the facts that are “inconvenient” for the mythology. It is time for Russia to abandon (at least temporarily) its missionary work and selflessness in its relations with Eastern European neighbors, and start building these relations solely on the basis of mutual benefit and respect of mutual obligations.

24 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES G.V. Osipov

Key words: globalization, confrontation, intergovernmental relations, threat to the world, catastrophe, mythology, blackmail, superpowers, self-sufficiency, sanctions, aggression, partnership development, convergence, messianism, well-being, tradition, culture, paradigm.

In the late 20th – early 21st century be dangerous, is in Pakistan (44%), Serbia human civilization has undergone certain (45%), Turkey (45%), Argentina (46%), qualitative changes inconsistent with the old Bosnia (49%) and China (49%). system of governance. Current public Commenting on the survey, Andrei administration that is based on a trial-and- Milekhin, President of the research holding error method both on the national and Romir, Coordinating Director of the WIN/ global scale is fraught with unpredictable Gallup International in Russia, the CIS and social, economic, political and geopolitical Eastern Europe, believes that its results reflect consequences. These effects, according to the real situation in the world in recent years. scientists, can be irreversible for modern “Granted, the West maintains (so far!) civilization. Under the circumstances, any its economic and military advantage. experiments on countries and peoples must However, the process of regionalization of be excluded entirely. the world is gaining momentum. “The Who poses a threat to peace and unified center for global control” has proved international security? ineffective and threatening to humanity. It According to a poll conducted in will inevitably give way to multipolarity” November – December 2013 by the WIN/ [IA REGNUM. 12.08.14]. Gallup International, 54% of Russians Of course, it will surrender peacefully, consider the United States a dangerous without confrontation. Any serious conflict country; 24% of the people of the world between the two world superpowers can think the same. Those countries that are instigate a world war III. marked by world ideologists as “hotbeds of The blackmail on the part of third count- evil and threats” are much less dangerous in ries is no less dangerous to the world and it is the opinion of the world community. Only a serious problem in the relationship between 8% of respondents believe that the threat the United States and the Russian Federation. to peace is coming from Pakistan, and 6% This blackmail can be described, without think that danger nests in China. 5% consider exaggeration, as a path to global catastrophe. Iran, Israel, Afghanistan and North Korea The essence of the problem is as follows. potentially dangerous countries. According The greatest geopolitical catastrophe, planned to global estimates, only 2% of respondents by Western intelligence agencies led to the think that Russia is a threat. collapse of the USSR. The United States of 15% of citizens in Western Europe, 25% America claimed leadership in the unipolar in Asia, and 33% in the Middle East regard world, and the U.S. Government disregards the U.S as the dangerous country. The largest the two aspects of contemporary international number of people, who consider the U.S. to reality.

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The first is huge stockpiles of weapons of countries in Europe, Africa, Latin America mass destruction, sufficient to destroy all life and Asia. on the planet. The second is the growing While the USSR existed, its republics, claims of old and new emerging countries except for Belarus and Azerbaijan, were concerning the high level of the quality of subsidized largely at the expense of Russia; life, corresponding to or, at least, approaching and now it is very hard for them to break the socio-economic realities of the so-called off this habit, despite the fact that they developing countries. have become independent nation-states. But do the new countries have any Therefore, Russia is experiencing continued objective basis for such claims? Experience pressure from the CIS nations and the former shows that out of more than 190 nation-states Warsaw Pact allies. They threaten Russia with that are current UN members and that form plans to deploy NATO bases on their territory, the modern civilization only few can be and even with outright aggression, as it was defined as truly self-sufficient. during an armed invasion of South Ossetia by The leading countries, to which we Georgia, when Russian peacekeepers, whose include Russia and the United States, have immunity was confirmed by the mandate become such not only due to the presence of of the UN Security Council, were killed vital resources like hydrocarbons, natural gas, together with Ossetians. metal ores, coking coal, mineral fertilizers, The U.S. is also blackmailed by unceasing etc. on their territories, but also due to a demagogic appeals to defend “young high level of technological and economic democracies” from the “hand of Moscow”, development. by demands to supply modern arms and Countries that are not self-sufficient “humanitarian aid”. There emerged a economically and, therefore, politically, can new, outrageous in its shameless cynicism, not survive on their own. They have to look pattern of building relationships between to the leaders of development in one way “independent” countries and superpowers – or another. This situation gives rise to Russia and the United States, when these new complicated problems for the leading “independent” countries beg their overseas countries themselves. patron for political and even military Confrontation between the great powers, protection and at the same time, demand which is largely negative in its essence, is that Russia give them economic privileges in provoked by those very countries that have exchange for dubious promises that they will not established themselves in the market slow down their movement in the Western of global division of labor and trade, and direction, postpone their accession to that can offer only political services to one NATO, back Russia in minor international superpower in its confrontation with another issues, etc. superpower. International security problems created This can be said not only about the former over and over again by Eastern European and Soviet republics, but also a number of other other “independent” countries for the whole

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world community are quite comparable with Some initial strokes of a new road map of the effects of growing religious extremism, diplomatic relations between Russia and the primarily Islamic fundamentalism. United States have already been drawn on a Blackmailing the U.S. and Russia could clean sheet; and in order to continue this lead to a military conflict between the “cartography” that is crucial for the whole superpowers and, consequently, to a world, we should show respect to those steps geopolitical catastrophe. In the case of U.S.- towards our country, which were made by the Russian military conflict there would be no administration of President B. Obama. winners, because the military actions between I have no intention to lessen the services the superpowers will destroy all life on of Russian diplomacy in general and the Earth including simple organisms. Political President of the Russian Federation Vladimir blackmail is the eve of a global catastrophe. Putin in particular. They helped to prevent Political blackmail must be outlawed. external aggression of NATO against Syria, It is time for the U.S. and Russia to to conclude long-awaited agreements with reconsider their relationships and the Iran, which not only lowered the threshold principles, the methods of control, which of nuclear threat in the Middle East, but also they were guided by in their domestic took Iran, the leading Middle Eastern power, and international policies, and to build out of humiliating economic isolation costly new methods that would be clear and for Iran’s economy. Again, for the sake of complying with mutual interests and modern fairness, I note that it might be that the U.S. outlook. did not provide definite support to Russia’s First of all, it is necessary to abandon the peaceful initiatives, but at least it showed practice when one’s allies are encouraged and reasonable willingness to refrain from strong- even forced to confront the geopolitical rival. arm conflict that could lead to a tragic finale The U.S. in its global political game with in the geopolitical confrontation between the Russia does not need to play the cards great powers. named “Poland”, “Czech Republic”, Not long ago all diplomatic activity and “Georgia”, “Syria”, “the Baltic States”, etc. enforcement actions of the USA in the But Russia should also be more careful and Middle East were carried out solely in the correct in building its partnership and allied interests of the state of Israel and pro- relations, in particular, with a number of American Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Now Caribbean countries that are leaders in Latin the Obama Administration is showing the America. These countries, although located Arab majority in the region that it will take in close proximity to the natural area of U.S. into account their interests as well. Skeptics national interests, show obstinacy bordering would likely to argue that “it is known where on aggressiveness toward their Northern the road paved with good intentions leads”. I neighbor. So far, the obstinacy is verbal, but would answer: “The one succeeds who tries; it is well known that battle of words often and the road, hard and dangerous as it may provokes hot conflicts. me, will rise to meet the one who walks it”.

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I am well aware that the changes in the And they are followed closely by India, U.S. politics, and often not the changes Brazil, and Indonesia. And of course, one themselves, but, rather, a vaguely expressed should not forget about Japan that has predisposition to them, are so limited in every survived phantasmagoric natural disasters aspect and disguised from their domestic with amazing firmness and nobility. and world “hawks”, that perhaps, only the The international community is moving veterans of American politics, such as your toward a multipolar world slowly, halting and humble servant, can notice these changes. I backtracking, but moving anyway. Moving agree that geopolitical micro-concessions, toward the situation where a permanent which I am talking about, are dictated largely dialogue, rather than force pressure, becomes by protracted crisis phenomena in the U.S. the main form of dealing with global issues. economy and in its financial sector. Although this road is long, we have to At any rate, for us it is important that prepare ourselves for a new world political American establishment, consciously or configuration right now. under the circumstances, albeit with obvious The transition to a qualitatively new irritation, begins to realize that the role partnership between the two great powers, of the world’s only center of power and which was scientifically grounded by Pitirim development, which was objectively assumed Sorokin, a great American sociologist by the U.S. after the USSR had left the world of Russian origin, in his work “Mutual arena, is going beyond the means of the first convergence of the United States and the power in the world. U.S.S.R. to the mixed sociocultural type” Granted, the global crisis has affected all [Pitirim A. Sorokin. 1961], does not mean to nation-states without exception, so the rise harm third countries in any way. Moreover, of a second superpower is not expected in a trust relationship between them will give a the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, both major impetus for many other countries in China that is steadily enhancing its key finding constructive solutions to their socio- economic indicators and the Russian political problems on the basis of the free Federation that is restoring its unique power democratic choice of market relations and persistently and successfully will inevitably real opportunities. challenge America on the world stage. (Here However, despite the efforts that Russian it is worth recalling the series of meetings, President Vladimir Putin makes to mitigate which President V.V. Putin held November the confrontation between Russia and the 28–29, 2013 in Sochi with developers United States of America in the international and manufacturers of new high-precision arena, this confrontation will not relent weapons; a strict and clear task was set significantly. After making a step toward before them: to ensure in the shortest term us, our American partner Barack Obama, the provision of the Armed Forces with the as a rule, makes two steps backward or sufficient number of weapons, which will sideways. A typical example is the civil war make Russia invulnerable to any aggression). in Ukraine, which was prepared, provoked

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and supported by the U.S. and its globally One can understand the logic of Georgia, dependent EU nations, although they are seeking by all means to keep Abkhazia within doing it reluctantly, often under coercion. the borders of the single state. Having created They support America neither for the benefit a recreational and tourism cluster on the of Ukraine, nor for the benefit of Europe, but Black Sea coast of Abkhazia, the Georgians only to annoy Russia. Is that decent? can live off the money coming from European We note that direct confrontation between tourists and almost do not have to work. the USA and the Russian Federation is But why should the Georgians thrive at the observed infrequently, since there are virtually expense of the territory belonging to the no serious geopolitical reasons for such Abkhazian people? Especially since it is confrontation. Geographically Russia and not Abkhazia that was historically part of the United States are located on different Georgia, but it is Georgia that was part of continents and have no common land the great Abkhaz State. One can understand borders. Both countries are fully self- Ukraine according to the same “logic”. sufficient and their economies do not depend In reality, we should not forget that Kiev on the level of import-export relationship. has never been a Ukrainian city, and We have no claims against each other in Zaporizhian Sich joined Russia voluntarily, retrospective; on the contrary, the history of seeking a refuge from invaders from the relations between our countries and peoples is South and West, from Muslim and Catholic a history of effective cooperation and military countries. brotherhood during the periods critical for the Central and Western Ukraine was occupied international community. Suffice it to recall by Poland for a long time and, most likely, that in World War I (the Great War as it is would have still remained under that called in the West), and in World War II, the oppression, if not for the intercession of and the USSR, on the one Russia. hand, and the United States of America on Ukraine in its present form was outlined the other, were allies. in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. The country The peoples of Russia and the Americans even comprised part of the Voronezh and have similar traits of character: friendliness, Kursk of Russia. After the denunciation openness to the world, patriotism that are of the Treaty, V.I. Lenin decided to preserve intertwined, sometimes quite peculiarly, with that ungrounded extension of the Ukrainian messianic aspirations. territory. Thus, the South, East, and much Let me recall that uncertainty and of the West of Ukraine never were Ukraine, increased propensity to conflict has emerged, with the exception of the troubled time first of all, because the new so-called at the end of World War I and Bolsheviks’ “developing countries”, at least many of manipulations with the boundaries of the them, are trying to build their prosperity by former Russian Empire. And despite this, the using the contradictions between the USA Russian Federation supports the integrity of and Russia. the Ukrainian state.

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But Russia cannot ignore the interests of One can also understand the viewpoint of 11 million Russian population of Ukraine and the United States of America. They suffered be indifferent to the attempts of Banderists to humiliation from us, when the deprive our compatriots of their sovereign deployed its nuclear missiles in Cuba, when rights. Their traditions, culture and language it successfully supported anti-American must be preserved! regimes in Nicaragua and other countries There was absolutely no logic in the trans- in Latin America, Northern and Central fer of Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR. It was a Africa. America has never forgiven those voluntaristic decision made by N.S. Khrush- mortifications and is now trying to take chev, who flirted with the political party asso- revenge. ciation of Ukraine in order to get support in the Simultaneously, the U.S. is experiencing struggle for power in Moscow. The behavior the period of radical change in weapon of the leaders of the USA and their satellites generation. Against what enemy does America resembles that of the famous character from intend to use the latest weapons? Definitely a book by Ilya Ilf and Evgeny Petrov, “whose not against Russia! But the U.S. cannot whole being protested against stealing, yet it abandon the production of weapons anyway. was impossible for him not to steal”. Its military-industrial complex is the most It is well known that political ideas of the powerful industrial and economic factor, Ukrainian leadership in the modern period the most important social component of the were as follows: Russia is to provide the American economy. Even a partial reduction industry and 30 million Ukrainian population in weapons production will lead the country with almost free gas, otherwise, Ukraine to a serious unemployment, reduction of would lease Sevastopol, the city of Russian economic growth, stagnation and inevitable glory, to the U.S. Navy rather than to crisis that would hurt the most vulnerable the Russian Navy. And what we see here, segments of the population. Thus, this concerns not so much economic benefits criminal arms race, this road to nowhere, is (pragmatic Americans would not overpay a continuing. cent to their allies), as another attempt to We are not saying that the train of American humiliate and insult the Russian people. military-industrial complex, rushing at full The majority of the Ukrainians understand speed, has to be stopped abruptly. The idea that sooner or later the issue of misappropriated is to help our American partners to re-orient territories will come to the fore, so in order to their powerful economic potential from the keep them, Ukrainian leaders are persistently task of destruction to the task of creation. stirring up Russophobic attitudes among the Take, for instance, the participation of population, especially the youth. At the same American corporations in the creation of the time they do everything to join NATO and to so-called “corridor of development” proposed strengthen their aggressive encroachments by Russia, the concept and initial estimates through the power of this aggressive military- and substantiation of which were prepared by political alliance. the Russian Academy of Sciences.

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This global transport corridor, the other countries the policy of post- complemented by powerful fiber-optic modernization based on a limited sovereignty, communication lines and developed sharp reduction of economic activity in these infrastructure, would cover the Eurasian states, de-territorization and abandonment of and North American (with the prospect an independent foreign policy. Russia cannot to continue in South America) continents agree with persistent attempts of the U.S. to with a life-giving artery of high-speed accelerate the transition to a unipolar world communication, modern logistics and in order to establish its world domination modern information systems. Its creation and and submit other countries and peoples to its subsequent development and maintenance uncontrolled dictate. will require millions of highly-skilled and The Americanization of the modern well-paid jobs. The “corridor of development” world, which is declared by the U.S. foreign will provide the Russian and American policy as the most important global trend of economies and their business partner states world development, finds no support on the with guaranteed orders for decades. part of the Russian Federation and will find But in addition to the land “corridor of none of it in the future. development” stretching throughout Russia, But we do not accept another extreme – we have another important strategic project the anti-Americanism, which had found its that consists in the development of the most vivid expression in the statement of A. Northern Sea Route at a qualitatively new Parfrey: “Wheresoever you may be, death technological and logistical level. This project will overtake you, even if you be in strongly will open the gate to the Russian Arctic, the built towers” [Parfrey Adam. 2003]. Russia’s richest and most promising depository of foreign policy considers this extremist global hydrocarbon reserves. tendency a serious threat to world security, the It will also make the water transport route threat that in some cases becomes dramatic from Europe to Asia much shorter and and anti-human. considerably less expensive. If currently it The status of allies in the World War II takes more than one and a half months to brought together the peoples of the Soviet travel along the most favorable route from Union and the United States of America. Our European ports in the Baltic States to the “today” originates in our victorious year Pacific region through the Suez Canal, then of 1945. Neither the common citizens nor the trip along the Northern Sea Route will the establishment of our two countries must take only 21 days! forget about this in any case. It is very important that all of our partners Russia and its American partners have and opponents in the world community much in common, many similar problems understand that Russia fundamentally rejects that require urgent solving. For instance, confrontation with the U.S., the leading global non-proliferation issues, whether it power in the world. Yes, we oppose the is nuclear weapons or the latest traditional desire of American elite to impose on all military systems, dangerous biological

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experiments (human cloning, genetically noble aspiration? As we can see, most often modified food), terrorism and racial they are not. Selfish interests of American extremism, aggressive forms of religion business, the desire to “bend” Russia, to (Wahhabism, the Taliban, totalitarian force it to accept the role of the driven one in sects), drug trafficking, moral perversion the international political configuration now (pornography, sodomy, prostitution, organ and then win over sanity and commitment trade), etc. In principle, only Russia and to a non-confrontational development of the United States are able to solve these relations with natural partners of the U.S. problems by uniting and targeting their efforts. America has shown such attitude in No other country on the planet has either relation to the crisis in Ukraine, which the political, or economic, or military capacity vast majority of the Russian citizens consider to do that. The understanding of the situation their personal emotional pain. For them the should strengthen the responsibility of the two tragedy of the neighboring brotherly people, countries for the fate of the world. who had been living in friendship and unity The Russian Federation and the United with the Russians and other peoples of Russia States of America are not only the centers of for centuries, is a personal tragedy. power of the human civilization, but also the Western leaders, having provoked a civil leading countries in scientific research. It is war in the South-East of Ukraine, tried to science, as the basis of the modern worldview, oppose the Slavic peoples once again and as a significant (along with religion and forever. Dostoevsky wrote about this: “They art) source of the development of moral (the Slavs. – G.O.) will begin their new life imperative, that can respond to increasingly by asking Europe – England and Germany, expanding and deepening challenges of for instance – for guarantees and protection modernity. of their freedom, and even though Russia Not much time is left to show it. Therefore, will also be part of the concert of European I urge supporters and helpers, of which I am powers, they will do this precisely as a means part, of a new cardinal rapprochement of defense against Russia. They will certainly between Russia and the United States to act in begin by announcing internally, if not openly, the national interest of Russia and the United that they are not obliged to Russia in anything, States, in the interests of all mankind. but on the contrary, that they barely escaped The Russian Federation is ready and open Russia’s ambition thanks to interference of to this kind of cooperation, which has been the European concert when making peace… voiced many times in the statements and [Dostoevsky F.M. 1877]. clearly defined initiatives of the President Overseas politicians see Ukraine, currently of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, in the engulfed in civil war, as a prospective buffer statements of the Foreign Minister of the area turned into a NATO military base, a raw Russian Federation S.V. Lavrov and other top materials supplier and a provider of cheap officials of the Russian Federation. But are labor for the United Europe. That is why American partners willing to support us in this America, together with Europe established

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in Kiev a government that advocates the to the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and ideology of neo-fascism in its most vile their satellites, Russia introduces its own Banderist version. That is why they are so sanctions, the consequences of which can stubborn in their determination not to see affect Western economy very badly. the atrocities of gunmen of the Kiev junta Having taken such a tough position in Odessa, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and other toward the outside world, and mainly, toward towns and settlements in the South-East the U.S., which is the leader of the Western of Ukraine. That is why they ignore the ideology, Russia must focus without delay and convincing evidence of modern and effective most seriously on its economy, finances and Russian tracking systems that are watching agriculture, with the goal of rapid and radical over military actions in Novorossia and that improvement of the social situation. prove clearly and unambiguously that the The success of our future development is Ukrainian army is responsible for the crash of impossible without changing its paradigm. Malaysian Boeing 777. That is why they are First of all, Russia’s leadership should trying to shift the blame for the committed completely eliminate certain remaining atrocities on Russia without producing even factors that drive the reforms to destruction. the smallest proof to this cause, but with the In the contemporary history of the post- use of the entire range of political demagogy, Soviet period Russia yielded to the pressure blackmail, intimidation of civilians and from the U.S. and the West several times, and pressure on the media. each time there was deception and lie. What should the Russian government and One has only to recall the statement of M. society do in such a situation? The only Gorbachev: “I believe Chancellor Kohl: there answer is: act adequately. If the U.S. does not will be no eastward expansion of NATO”. As understand and take into account Russia’s a result, Russia was forced to retreat because it position with regard to Ukraine and other was devastated after the ill-considered radical complex political, economic and defense reforms of neoliberals inspired by American issues, the Russian Federation will have and Western politicians. to take a strong stand and make itself The present-day Russia is not what it used totally independent from the influence to be 20 years ago. Russia has risen from its of third countries, even if they have such knees! And now we must not cave in on the colossus as the USA on their side. Avoiding crucial principal positions, otherwise we can confrontation, Russia will have to build its fall to our knees once again and stay that way relations with the world solely on the basis for a long time, if not forever. of market principles and rationality. Without Kremlin’s policy and the statements of the belligerent rhetoric and threats, our country RF President V.V. Putin are encouraging and should at least temporarily renounce its inspiring in this respect as well. historical messianic role, abandon charity “Russia over many centuries supported and unilateral assistance to those partners strong and trusting relations between who have already expressed contempt and countries. This was the case on the eve of even hostility toward our country. In response World War I too, when Russia did everything

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it could to convince Europe to find a peaceful Can it be so that there is someone in the and bloodless solution to the conflict between post-Soviet space, to whom this historical Serbia and Austro-Hungary. But Russia’s allegory ought to be explained? Of course calls went unheeded and our country had no not ! choice but to rise to the challenge, defend a The President of the Russian Federation brotherly Slavic people and protect our own V.V. Putin in his usual reserved, respectful, country and people from the foreign threat. and non-aggressive manner reminded the Russia stayed true to its duties as an ally lessons of history to those, who have forgotten (emphasis added. – G.O.). them. Russia has fulfilled its obligations as The Russian offensives in Prussia and an ally. Galicia upset the adversary’s plans and made It is high time, as long as the red line is it possible for our allies to hold the front and not crossed, to abandon the confrontation, defend Paris. The enemy was forced to turn its in whatever forms it may take place between attention and direct a large part of its forces east the U.S. and Russia. The blackmail in where Russian regiments put up the fiercest foreign policy must be stopped by the United possible struggle. Russia withstood the attack States and Russia, who owe it to humanity and was then able to launch an offensive. The to develop jointly a new paradigm of world Brusilov offensive became famous throughout order and management that meets modern the whole world” [V.V. Putin. 03.08.14]. social realities.

Cited works 1. IA REGNUM. Available at: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1781607.html#ixzz3AGCm8j1w. Poslednee poseshchenie 12.08.14. 2. Vladimir Putin Held a Meeting on Carrying Out a Program on the Development and Series Production of Long-Range High-Precision Weapons. Available at: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/6346 3. Sorokin P.A. Harvard University. Mutual convergence of the United States and the U.S.S.R. To the mixed sociocultural type. Memoire du XIXe Congres International de Sociologie. Translated from English by G.N. Engelhardt, T.I. Shumilina. Edited by I.B. Orlov. Mexico D.F., 1961. Vol. II. 4. Parfrey A. Allah Does not Love America. Moscow, 2003. 5. Dostoyevsky F.M. A Writer’s Diary. Article of September–December 1877. 6. The Speech of V.V. Putin at the Opening of the Monument to the Heroes of the Great War, August 3, 2014, Moscow, Poklonnaya Hill. Available at: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/22756

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References 1. IA REGNUM. Available at: http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1781607.html#ixzz3AGCm8j1w. Poslednee poseshchenie 12.08.14. 2. In this connection we should recall the series of meetings that were held November 28–29, 2013 in Sochi by Russian President V.V. Putin and the developers and manufacturers of extremely-precise weapons. They set a clear task to ensure supply of a sufficient number of weapons in the Armed Forces as soon as possible, which would make Russia invulnerable to any aggression. 3. Sorokin P.A. Harvard University. Mutual convergence of the United States and the U.S.S.R. To the mixed sociocultural type. Memoire du XIXe Congres International de Sociologie. Translated from English by G.N. Engelhardt, T.I. Shumilina. Edited by I.B. Orlov. Mexico D.F., 1961. Vol. II. 4. Parfrey A. Allakh ne lyubit Ameriku [Allah Does not Love America]. Moscow, 2003. 5. Dostoyevsky F.M. Dnevnik pisatelya. Zapis’ za sentyabr’–dekabr’ 1877 [A Writer’s Diary. Article of September– December 1877]. 6. The Speech of V.V. Putin at the Opening of the Monument to the Heroes of the Great War, August 3, 2014, Moscow, Poklonnaya Hill.

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UDC 316.334.2, LBC 60.561.2 © Toshchenko J.T. Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990 – 2012) *

Jean Terent’evich TOSHCHENKO Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, Chief Editor of the journal of the Russian Academy of Sciences “Sociological Studies”, Dean and Head of the Department of Theory and History of Sociology at the Division for Sociology of Russian State University for the Humanities ([email protected])

“People consider that the main difference of the bygone epoch from the present is that it was bad earlier, but we moved forward, but now we mark time and even take bribes for this” S. Leskov, publicist (“Izvestia”, December 24, 2003).

Key indicators of economic consciousness Despite official propaganda, reassurance and behavior. In the Soviet Union the ideology in advantages of the socialist way of life, predetermined the policy of social equality, Soviet people became more and more social justice and social protection. Many convinced that “it was impossible to live such provisions of this program were implemen- a life” (S. Govorukhin). ted. However, the 1970–1980s witnessed The situation aggravated due to the a paradoxical phenomenon: one issue was opinion that in the West people lived richer, stated, another was implemented. Moreover, better, had opportunities to use so many this conflict worsened, intensified and had goods and services, which were reachable a greater impact on people’s consciousness only in the distant future, or not seen at all and behavior. in our country.

* The research is carried out under the scientific project of RFBR no. 12-06-00155.

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It was caused by the fact that innovation to welcome the achievements of the Western and pioneer spirit of the provisions declared countries soon turned into the belief that in the USSR, as well as the fear of revolution the expectation of positive change had not forced the Western leaders to take into occurred or, at least, demanded another account the needs of the time and carry turning point in the understanding of the out many activities to provide a wide range ongoing changes. of social services. Thus, consciousness of According to the All-Soviet/All-Russian Soviet people combined these conflicting studies, estimating the economic situation of aspirations – formal, declarative and personal, the population for nearly a quarter of the individual, which ultimately manifested itself century (supervised by I.T. Toshchenko, in the indifference to the fate of socialism in W.E. Boykov), people have been skeptical the early 1990s. about the changes (tab. 1). Therefore, the main indicator of economic The analysis of these data shows that the consciousness, in our opinion, is such a negative estimates have dramatically increa- phenomenon that proved itself as a result of sed, although the data of the late 1980s – the long-term competition between capitalist early 1990s revealed optimistic expectations, (Western) and socialist (Soviet) development hopes for the radical improvement in their models: the initiators of socialist programs did well-being. People did not assess proclai- not realize many progressive ideas, but their med promises, but the results achieved. opponents, in fact, did it, according to their Economic consciousness of people clearly social programs (see: Toshchenko, 2009). recorded/records the current situation However, the indicated weaknesses and and caught/catches the main features of failures of the Soviet system and the tendency the functioning of the economic mechanism

Table 1. What were the consequences of the transition to market relations? (in % to the number of respondents)

Answers 1990 2012 Level of well-being has decreased 33 47.9 Inequity in remuneration has increased 12 45.5 Plundering of labor resources has increased 13 54.5 Inflation has increased 17 52.9 Number of economic crimes has increased 18 56.4 Only the rich has benefited 27 47.9

Note. The study was conducted May 24–31, 1990, 1525 people in 17 regions of the USSR were surveyed (, Ashgabat, Baku, Volgograd, Grodno, Zaporizhia, Irkutsk, Kishinev, Moscow, the , Orel, Riga, -on-Don, Semipalatinsk, Tbilisi, Chelyabinsk, ). The study was conducted October 5–10, 2012, 1201 people of 18 and over in 12 subjects of the Russian Federation were surveyed (Krasnoyarsk, Stavropol, Khabarovsk , the Volgograd, Voronezh, Irkutsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk oblasts, Moscow and Saint Petersburg) by the sample representing the employees of major economic activities, employed in enterprises of different ownership forms.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 37 Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990 – 2012)

that puts people in a paradoxical posi- official statistics the productivity in industry tion – the rejection of certain vices of a decreased by one and a half–two times, in system does not compensate the changes, agriculture – by 3–5 times. which were even more hazardous. In modern Russia, this gap widened: labor But the paradox remained a paradox: some productivity in industry comprised 20–25% just spoke, others took action. And as the story of the world average, and in agriculture – and the Marxist doctrine confirmed repea- about 15% (the data of the Ministry of tedly, action succeeded. Economic Development, 2014). The paradox At the same time, on the background of of that time was quite vividly captured in the this global contradiction the current diffe- ironic phrase: “We do not sow, or plow, or rences developed, emerged, aggravated, gi- build – we are proud of the social order”. ving rise to new specific paradoxes inherent And this “pride” without a solid financial in both the Soviet and post-Soviet periods. base could lead only to frustration, bitterness, As for the Soviet period, in the Soviet Union distrust and such contradictory attitudes of the property subject was extremely imper- Soviet people as: “We have a better social sonalized: it was something amorphous and system, but they have a better life”. universal – the state and society. Despite In the conditions of market economy constant talks that every Soviet person had there widely spread paradoxes. One of these the sense of the owner, as he/she was the paradoxes is an attitude towards market owner and manager of the national wealth, economy and its main leading actors – the awareness of belonging to the solution of bankers, entrepreneurs, major owners, etc. fundamental problems of life did not prove But, first of all, a little history. When the this statement. In the period of growing alie- idea of the market began to penetrate into nation from the socialist property, which, surp- public consciousness, it was not necessary risingly, expended due to the increased efforts to persuade people – life did itself. First, of official propaganda about the progress during perestroika since the mid-1980s of developed socialism, the bitter joke was the expectations of the majority of people popular in the 1970–1980s: “There is the had been associated with the belief in sense of the owner, but there is no owner”. a sudden breakthrough in the national The Soviet economy failed to implement economy development. But in the early Lenin’s idea that socialism could only win 1990s the population was concerned about due to advantages in productivity growth. another fact: having assessed worthlessness And this performance in the period of of the economic policy implemented by the “developed socialism” stagnated and even initiators of perestroika, people began to began to give ground in virtually all sectors of pay attention to other possible measures, in the economy. The lag in productivity became particular, those used by the countries with obvious at the last stage of development of the a high level of development and standard of socialist economy. With all its distortions of living (Dushatskii, 1998; Il’ichev, 2005).

38 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES J.T. Toshchenko

If we look back at the dynamics of changes work in the market environment. The split of public opinion in relation to the market, in the understanding of market opportunities the introduction of private ownership of land still exists, despite some increase in positive and some other market problems, just a few assessments of its forms and methods. That shared these ideas at first. By the end of 1989– is why the stance of the Liberal Democrats early 1990 public consciousness experienced (previously supporters of the “Democratic a significant shift. The All-Russian research choice of Russia” and now of “Right Cause”) under the author’s supervision in May 1990 seems absurd and pretentious, as they try showed that the market introduction (fully or to present themselves as the only market partially) was positively assessed by 43% of reformers and the rest as their opponents. the Communists and 28% of the population. The real situation is different: all political By March 1991 there had been 57% of the forces, from liberal to communist, from market relations supporters. In 1991 and agrarian to patriot-national parties are market 1992 70–80% of the working population oriented. The discussion is about the price, recognized the market acceptable for their people should pay for the transition to new life. economic and organizational forms of However, the growth of hardship in production. connection with Gaidar’s shock therapy But, unfortunately, this controversy resulted in the negative assessment of market continues to be dominated by old habits – “if reforms (up to 80% of people evaluate the you do not agree with me in everything economic situation in Russia negatively). without exception, then you are against People were disappointed and frustrated me, my program, my ideas and views”. But (tab. 2). people do not live according to laws (often Thus, orientation on the market as a far-fetched and absurd) of political struggle, primary means to upgrade the economy and not by preferences and morals of political lifestyle has not become a key issue in public parties and movements, not in accordance and private life. People compare failures of with socio-economic concepts and theories, the Russian experience and the experience of but taking into account real life. And due countries that consistently and successfully to this they find themselves in an extremely

Table 2. Has the country gone in the right direction since August 1991?, %

Answers 2003 2005 2007 2011, October

In the right direction 30 25 28 42 In the wrong direction 47 50 37 39 Difficult to answer 23 25 35 19

Source: Obshchestvennoe mnenie-2008 [Public Opinion-200]. Moscow: Levada center, 2008, p. 177. Available at: www.Levada.ru/ press/2009072202.html

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 39 Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990 – 2012)

contradictory, paradoxical situation, when them and often called as “new Russians”. they can not make the right decision, feel In fact, they pave the way for new economic confident in the environment, understand relations and represent the triumph of new the contradictory situation, pushing them realities. into mutually exclusive actions. But since their rise as representatives of Public consciousness of people does not the market often involves the most shameless consider political and economic categories, and criminal forms of profiteering and no matter whether they are monetary, fiscal grabbing, international and domestic or social. In everyday life people ask themselves speculation, money laundering, these people and others: “who is guilty and responsible for are associated with criminals. It is often not their plight, for the lack of social and legal far from the truth. protection and support?” According to the experts, 25% of managers People often blame those who wield and entrepreneurs do decent business. power: the President, the Government, the According to the Levada center, in 2005 State Duma and bureaucracy as a whole. But almost half of the citizens (44%) believed this is some abstract criticism, for the businessmen’s activity was harmful for situation changes frequently in the higher Russia. This situation has changed little echelons of power and it is increasingly nowadays. difficult to accuse a certain person; there is The sociological data analysis help to too uncertain situation with the so-called reveal the causes of the given assessment of elite, the stagnation or leapfrog of high level the economic situation in the country and, temporary workers. therefore, to understand why the credibility The situation is unusual, as approving the of the subjects (actors) of economic activity ideas of market economy; people begin to is falling or being seriously questioned seek out those who have put them in this (tab. 3). social stalemate, and try to find a way out, The data analysis shows that if in 1990 the including taking measures to stop their distrust of state economic policy prevailed humiliating status, the status of beggars and among the population (62%), i.e. people boarders. People have a desire to work, a clear blamed the country leadership, in 2012 head and hard-working hands: they should they started to blame the mechanism of the live a decent life. economy functioning – corruption, mutual But who prevents it? protection, existence of mafia groups in Therefore, it is not surprising that governance and trade. It should be noted that dissatisfaction begins to focus on those the evaluation of such a vice, as corruption, individuals who actually represent the does not differ much from the 1990 data, at market, namely businessmen, bankers, first glance. entrepreneurs and all actors of the new However, if we consider that the impunity economic theatre that are associated with of law violators was estimated as high by 35%

40 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES J.T. Toshchenko

Table 3. Which of the following circumstances, in your opinion, hinders economic development in our country? (The sum of the responses does not equal to 100% because the survey methodology presupposes several options. The responses are listed in the descending order); in % to the number of respondents

Answers 2012 1990 Mutual protection and corruption 48.4 46 Impunity of law violators 36.8 - Failures in economic policy 34.9 62 Mismanagement 30.4 - Administrative arbitrariness of the authorities in the economy management 24.6 30 Lack of qualified managers 18.7 - Lack of conditions for entrepreneurship 14.2 23 Monopoly of producers of goods and services 10.4 34 Leveling of employees’ wages wage workers employed 7.8 44 Impact of gangs on the economy 7.4 - Dependence of the economy on political and ideological dogmas 7.3 28 Transformation of production and services into the “hospice” for lazy people 4.8 34 Others 0.7 - Difficult to answer 3.2 -

Note. The sign (-) means that this question was not asked in 1990. of respondents in the 2012 study; this is the Public consciousness (40–60% of the same as mutual protection and corruption. population) assesses market relations So, the society believes that corruption in extremely negatively. In 1999, according to various forms of its manifestation almost VTSIOM, 55% of the respondents estimated doubled. wealthy bankers and businessmen negatively. In modern Russia people are still In 2006, according to the same research concerned of administrative power abuse. center, 84% of people responded positively to Its estimates differ slightly in the last 25 the criminal proceedings against the initiators years – 30% in 1990 and 24.6% in 2012. of economic crimes (Komsomolskaya Pravda, Public consciousness can not apprehend June 9, 2006). The population considers these the notion of new masters of life, which people as responsible for the collapse of the improves neither the Russian society, nor any economy, poverty in the country, they can not of our notions of honor and dignity. People be respected, supported, and some people dislike flashy presentations, arrogance of advocate the use of repressive measures. Very wealth, excess and impudence of “new often the surveys disclosed such opinions as: Russians”, insolent behavior and a lack of “they should be hanged, imprisoned, exiled any taste and ethical concepts. to ”, etc.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 41 Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990 – 2012)

In other words, the paradox is that public of view as comparison of the role and consciousness, supporting market trans- significance of private property with other formations, is against subjects of these forms of ownership. In public and private transformations, against those who really life of people, media, everyday life, and and actually represent the changes in the sometimes in scientific literature there is a economic life of Russia. It is very true, as simple, complementary approach to private according to K. Stahlmann, no one believes property. that the Russian businessman is characterized Sociological information, in particular the by “fulfillment of the national principle, data of the Russian-Canadian studies, national objectives or national mission. Some “Russia’s way to the market” (1992–1997) people consider him/her as a combination of (supervised by J. De Bardeleben, J.T. Tosh- the worst sins: graft and disingenuity, greed, chenko, V.E. Boykov), indicated no significant rudeness, “tough mafia style” (Stahlmann, differences in people’s attitudes to labor 1999). processes, production efficiency, growth in Further, the paradox of consciousness the productivity of work depending on the and behavior of people has emerged due form of ownership (Toshchenko, Boykov, to the official objective to “capitalize” 1990). consciousness – to make the private interest And this becomes especially apparent in the principal, the leading. But life has shown the assessment of the activities of joint stock that this objective has not brought the companies where most workers continue to desired results. relate in the same vein, as in conditions of On the one hand, the target to “work for state ownership of the Soviet period. The the common good, for the good of society” evidence is protest movements in the number is almost forgotten, faded in the public of enterprises, when the whole pathos of consciousness, although common, collec- the struggle is directed against the state, tivist beginning, albeit in a distorted form, but not against their leaders, responsible still exists. By the way, this factor is often for enterprises with the specific form of ignored by the researchers who believe that ownership, isn’t it? the Western industrialized countries are the Analyzing this paradoxical situation, only example for Russia to follow. some researchers argue that under condi- On the other hand, the fund “Public tions of uncertainty, ambiguity, unpre- opinion” gives a low estimate of such dictability of economic development the “capitalist” objectives, as acquisition of majority of shareholders are ready to property (13%), and “investment in the delegate the powers to those who ensure enterprise” (5%). stable and high salary and the solution Due to the problem of consciousness of social problems in the enterprise. But “capitalization” we should pay attention to it means that people want to waive the the prevalence of such a paradoxical point property right (Greenberg, 2012).

42 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES J.T. Toshchenko

There is the indicative paradox, associated Today this view is shared by millions. with the contradiction of social qualities of For hard work and flawless and creative the consumer and employee in consciousness performance of duty do not determine and behavior of people. Nowadays, they people’s prosperity and confidence. The operate directly in the opposite direction, following data are indicate the decline in the although it is well known that only when they labor significance indirectly (tab. 4). are consistent with each other we can talk So, we observe a certain, but still not about the rational functioning of not only the decisive shift in the employee’s perception economy, but of people’s economic behavior of his/her state. We can assume with a very and way of life. high probability that the growth in positive But in fact, the vector of efforts in these estimates is achieved by those who had the two roles mutually excludes each other. As a opportunity to work on the basis of private consumer, a person strives to meet his/her initiatives or in private enterprises. material and spiritual needs effectively and The “effective” means to maintain this efficiently. contradiction-paradox is tax burden, which However, as an employee, a person faces negates any initiative. To sell a different situation. His/her work is not and resell goods has become more profitable, always paid for, or paid not adequately to the than to produce them. It has become easier changing socio-economic environment. The to buy cheaper and resell more expensive, production is often not popular. The results using the “scissors” of prices between public are often unnecessary and depreciated. The and private sectors, between regions. And current economic situation is that more even it is better to speculate when selling and more people – employees, peasants foreign goods, including shuttles, delivering and specialists – are convinced that now home everything that makes a profit – even neither mind nor talent nor skillful hands can defective and spoiled products. This massive guarantee success. Moreover, the prestige of shift to trade in all conceivable and criminal labor, participation in the creation of material forms is not an evil intent, scourge or vicious wealth and spiritual values are poorly paid and intention; it is just more profitable than to not supported by the state. manufacture goods.

Table 4. If you work more productively, will your wages increase? (in % to the number of respondents)

Answers 1990 2012

Yes, much 6 17,4 It will increase slightly 26 24,1 No/difficult to answer 68 58,5

Source: data of the Institute for Social Research.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 43 Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990 – 2012)

Thus, trade has become too exaggerated undermined the credibility of the state and, to the detriment of both production and at the same time, market relations. distribution. The 2008 crisis was also shocking, seriously The special group of paradoxes, cha- affecting the prosperity and confidence of racterizing interaction between producers people. It is, therefore, quite natural that after and consumers is formed by a widespread a long process of impoverishment people contradiction between the patriotic desire want to review the results of privatization, to support domestic producers through the when those succeeded who managed to get purchase of Russian goods and products a piece of the pie that belonged to the whole and the real behavior of these people when society. And when you take into account meeting specific needs – mostly personal giant land speculation (and this is before the and family. Its essence lies in the fact that establishment of the institute of purchase and domestic products give way to more quality sale), theft of rare, unique natural resources and attractive goods, produced in the West. and remains of state property, you think of The declared desire contradicts real behavior. lawlessness and chaos in the economic life And this applies not just to one person or in the country. small groups – this is the real behavior of The paradox is that many people (50– many Russian consumers, when the desire 60%) rely on the ability to suffer, adapt to and intention does not coincide with actual the deteriorated situation, despite the fact activity. that they are unhappy with their economic However, in recent years there has been a situation, assessing it as poor or very poor shift in confidence to domestic products, (70%). So, as in the case of paradoxes in which is especially evident in the situation the theory, there is a contradiction between regarding food products and light industry imaginable and real world experience and goods. In general, however, Russian goods they often contradict or oppose each other. lag behind foreign. Great dissatisfaction of the socio-economic The significant paradox exists between the situation, prevailing in the society, still call to correspond to market democracy and coexists with positive or discreet personal everyday orientation on pathetic and primitive assessment of the real situation. demands: how to survive. Of course, we can talk about the process Moreover, it is carried out in the conditions of primitivization of the needs, about the of the praised ability to make money in any substitution of higher forms of needs sa- way, the ability to swindle other people with tisfaction for lower, about the urge to survive the help of banks, funds and people who just in an extreme situation, but this does not like to make a fortune using all available, even negate the fact that people hope that these unjust methods. problems can be solved in a peaceful manner, In August 1998 there was another robbery but at a certain balance of political forces. of people – the default that once again Still people have an extremely unfavorable

44 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES J.T. Toshchenko

Table 5. How do you assess the economic situation, in % to the number of respondents, N=1600

In In In In In In In In Answer the country the country the country the country the family the family the family the family 1997 2000 2006 2012 1997 2000 2006 2012 Very good and good 0.7 2.2 9 13 3.8 5.5 9.0 18.0 Average 19.5 26 45 52 44.4 48.4 56 50 Bad and very bad 69.4 61.0 35 28 50.9 44.1 33.0 22.0 Difficult to answer 10.0 10.8 11.0 7.0 0.8 1.9 2.0 10.0

Sources: Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny [Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes], 2000, no. 4, p. 48; Vestnik obshchestvennogo mneniya. Dannye. Analiz. Diskussii [Bulletin of the Public Opinion. Data. Analysis. Discussion.], 2006, no. 6, p. 66; Obshchestvennoe mnenie-2008 [Public Opinion-2012]. Moscow: Levada center, 2013. Pp. 38, 47. historical background, which strongly apparent that the market by itself can not reminds of the enormous costs for everyone, make rational structural changes in the long if the resolution of the contradiction between term, be socially efficient (provide social the actual and desired is forcible (Gorshkov, services, social needs) or prevent the process 2011). of monopolization of production and pricing. Especially it is necessary to dwell on the Public consciousness can not but respond to paradox, which prevails in the public cons- these processes. The result is “the cure”, i.e. ciousness due to the current economic release of failed expectations and hopes, and situation – of a person and the whole country. return to real life. If in the Soviet times it was common to say “we live modestly, but our country gets richer * * * every day, but now people tend to assess the The proclaimed advantage of market situation in the country worse than their own. relations can not win way by itself. If they This trend was observed in the surveys of the are not socially oriented, people (or a 90s (tab. 5). significant part of the population) face There are more real and not exalted ideas poverty, deprivation and despair. And this, about the market in the public consciousness in turn, is associated with potential social nowadays. The increasing number of people disasters. is convinced that the market does not provide So, the Russian society has a very little social protection, eliminate unemployment choice: either the way of original (bloody, and poverty and prevent social stratification. nasty and very long) capital accumulation As for the specialists involved in the economic with the hope for a bright future after an reforms, many of them changed their attitude unknown period of time or the way of market from the enthusiastic to critical and even regulation, upgrade of forms and methods of negative assessment, because it became the economic policy. And if choosing the first

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 45 Economic consciousness and behavior: state and trends (1990 – 2012)

war, you do not have to do anything (you let It is worth noting that this paradoxical the history bring you to a prosperous life), confusion was also caused by confused, self- then choosing the second you will make a contradictory concepts of the scientists great effort to become a decent man of the representing various dogmatic, populist or 21st century (see: Greenberg, 2012). second-hand ideas. Thus, the economic paradoxes are based The economic management of the 1990s on huge shifts that have occurred in the has revealed that, firstly, it is impossible to society in general and in the life of every accelerate the transformation and ignore the person. The Russian society experiences lessons of international experience, even a radical change of the situation, based having best intentions. Secondly, scientific on the relations of property, ownership, and political extremism, taking into account use and disposal. We witness a change the absolutism of monetarist methods, does in the essential features of economic not consider the entire spectrum of modern consciousness and behavior that during beliefs, thus, it can not succeed. the Soviet period were not only regulatory Hence, the paradox of the current and requirements, but also became a tradition, future socio-economic situation, and, stereotypes of thinking and activity of many therefore, of economic consciousness and millions of people. behavior of people, presupposes that the The gap between the imaginary and real, objective and subjective forces of the historical between the official policy and socio- process act in different and sometimes economic realities, between the orientations opposite directions, that is why they ensure and results of the changes underlies the neither stability nor confidence in the speedy paradox that we observe in everyday life solution of urgent problems of the Russian today. society.

Cited works 1. Gorshkov M. K. Reforms in the Mirror of Public Opinion. Sociological Studies, 2011, no. 10, p. 6. 2. Grinberg R. S. Freedom and Justice. Russian Temptations of False Choice. Moscow, 2012. 3. Dushatskii L. E. Value-Motivation Dominance of Russian Entrepreneurs. Sociological Studies, 1999, no. 7. 4. Il’ichev G. Almost Half of the Russians Consider Businessmen as Enemies. News, 2005. July 14. 5. Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes. 1999, no. 6, p. 40. 6. Toshchenko J.T. Man of Paradox. Moscow: INITI-DANA, 2009. 7. Toshchenko J.T. Economic Consciousness: State and Trends. Under Editorship of V.E. Boikov. Moscow: AON pri TsK KPSS, 1990. 8. Stahlmann K. New Business Philosophy: in 3 Volumes. Volume 1. Moscow – Berlin, 1998.

46 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast THEORETICAL ISSUES J.T. Toshchenko

References 1. Gorshkov M.K. Reformy v zerkale obshchestvennogo mneniya [Reforms in the Mirror of Public Opinion]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies], 2011, no. 10, p. 6. 2. Grinberg R.S. Svoboda i spravedlivost’. Rossiiskie soblazny lozhnogo vybora [Freedom and Justice. Russian Temptations of False Choice]. Moscow, 2012. 3. Dushatskii L.E. Tsennostno-motivatsionnye dominanty rossiiskikh predprinimatelei [Value-Motivation Dominance of Russian Entrepreneurs]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies], 1999, no. 7. 4. Il’ichev G. Pochti polovina rossiyan schitaet biznesmenov vreditelyami [Almost Half of the Russians Consider Businessmen as Enemies]. Izvestiya [News], 2005. July 14. 5. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny [Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes]. 1999, no. 6, p. 40. 6. Toshchenko J.T. Paradoksal’nyi chelovek [Man of Paradox]. Moscow: UNITI-DANA, 2009. 7. Toshchenko J.T. Ekonomicheskoe soznanie: sostoyanie i tendentsii [Economic Consciousness: State and Trends]. Under editorship of V.E. Boikov. Moscow: AON pri TsK KPSS, 1990. 8. Stahlmann K. Novaya filosofiya biznesa: v 3 t. Tom 1 [New Business Philosophy: in 3 Volumes. Volume 1]. Moscow – Berlin, 1998.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 47 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

UDC 338. 1.: 658, LBC 65.013.6 © Rumyantsev A.A. Post-industrial technological mode of production: time of emergence

Aleksei Aleksandrovich RUMYANTSEV Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Research Associate, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Regional Economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences (38, Serpukhovskaya Street, Saint Petersburg, 190013, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article characterizes a postindustrial technological way of production, an indicator, a set of technologies and connection with the pre-industrial and industrial technological methods of production. The development of the sixth technological mode is treated as the beginning of formation of the postindustrial technological way of production. The author reveals possibilities and prospects of post-industrial technologies. Many countries are conducting research on the application of post-industrial technologies despite industrial production, leading in the world. The article draws attention to the strengthening of measures on development of post-industrial technologies in our country. Key words: technological mode of production, pre-industrial, industrial, post-industrial, indicator, technology, prospect.

Economists have been discussing the basic to indicators characterizing the development directions of development of Russia’s of high technology, the rate of renovation economy such as neo-industrialism and post- of production, the level of development of industrialism. the social sphere (especially education and Adherents of post-industrial development healthcare) and the services sector in general” believe that “great concentration of industries [16]. that used to be the pride of the industrial Supporters of the first trend of economic period, is now a heavy burden (both economic thought have sharply criticized the ideas of and social) in the current early post-industrial post-industrial society, calling them false society; and greater importance is attached targets “used for justifying de-industrialization

48 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY A.A. Rumyantsev

of the national economy”. Industry in the era basically different from industrial production. of the formation of neo-industrial society, To identify the essential features of post- in their opinion, is turned into automated, industrialism, we build our analysis upon the robotic and “digitized” [30]. core economic concept of “production” in The paradox consists in the fact that the the technological aspect1, and attempt alternative concepts have a common original to substantiate the criterion on the basis basis: the achievements of science and of which we could analyze the structure technology, the use of “smart technology”. and status of post-industrial production. Then why do the conclusions on economic Especially since in this regard there is development diverge so radically? It seems evidence that support the emergence of a that the reason lies in the differences in the set of technologies beyond the framework of choice of priorities of economic development. industrial methods of production of goods It is not a coincidence that publications on and services2. The issue of post-industrial this topic contain concepts such as “neo- production can not be considered as complete industrial society” and “post-industrial and dealing with its nature and composition; society”. On the other hand, there is an it can be also viewed as an object of scientific opinion that “clear scientific criteria of post- analysis, substantiation and addition to the industrial economy, in contrast to industrial preliminary results. economy, have not been developed so far” Criteria of technological eras [15]. D. Bell, the founder of the conceptual Post-industrialism as the era following the framework of post-industrial society, pointed industrial society is recognized by many out: “The term “post-industrialism” relates scientists. However, its characteristic as a primarily to changes in the social structure technological community is ambiguous and (technological-economic system) of too general3. If pre-industrial and industrial society” [2]. D. Bell made a social forecast technological eras differ in some typical of post-industrial society using the analysis set of food production methods, then it is of achievements in the field of information difficult to distinguish the technology of post- technology of the 20th century industrial industrial production from that of industrial production (the emergence of electronic production. They are often referred to systems, miniaturization, conversion of either industrial or post-industrial modes of data into digital form, software) and seeing production. It is not clear why certain post- them as tools of social change. But he industrial technologies cannot be classified and his supporters did not associate the as industrial. characteristic of post-industrial society with 1 The technological mode of production means the unity the formation of post-industrial technological of the equipment and its technological settings [23]. mode of production. Therefore, we can raise 2 The object of the research in the article is limited only the question concerning the approaches by technological specifi cs of production of goods and services, and it is in no way related to its social form. to the disclosure of technological basis of 3 “The post-industrial [sector] is a processing sector. post-industrial production, which, along Here the exchange of information and knowledge is going on with social features, can have its specific mainly by means of telecommunication and computers”. “Post- industrial society is formed under the infl uence of intelligent technology, and mode of production that is technology” [2].

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 49 Post-industrial technological mode of production: time of emergence

Thus, it is possible to speak about the by the technology of agriculture, animal criteria of technological eras4. Obviously, the husbandry, utilization of wind energy and methodological approach to their water flows (mills) that are the germs of basic establishment can be the consideration of technologies of other epochs. The combination technology as a means of production-related of the aforementioned technologies can be attitude of man to nature with the purpose classified as the technological basis of pre- of obtaining consumer products that sustain industrial production. people. It is the difference between the The second criterion can describe means of exchange of man with the natural technologies related to industrial production. environment that can be the basis for Its characteristic features include: 1) identification of the technological era and its application of equipment systems, machines, inherent set of technologies. mechanisms, devices, and 2) operation of When the formulated approach is applied large industrial complexes: metallurgical, in analyzing the historical path of the origin chemical plants, machine-building giants and development of technologies, we can and other companies focused on serial and suggest the following criteria of the methods mass production. Industrial production of exchange between man and natural is the processing of resources provided environment. The first one is the use of the by nature: , hydrocarbons, ore and fruits of nature. The second method is the non-metallic minerals, and their ultimate use of discovered laws of nature and creation destruction (consumption) in the production on their basis of “the second, transformed process. The industrial type of production nature” that is a system of machines (machine is accompanied by a huge amount of waste industry) for production and consumption (up to 50% from the weight of natural raw of vital products and services. The third materials), by environmental pollution method is the use of processes occurring in dangerous to human life, by approaching nature itself, when products and services are the limit of growth of productivity of produced by managing natural processes. traditional industrial technologies and the The first criterion identifies the necessity of upgrading them according to new technological era of gathering. Its basic technological principles. It is believed that the technology includes harvesting, hunting, era of the industrial mode of production – the fishing, the beginnings of handicraft, followed use of machines – began with the domination of the steam engine in the mid-19th century. 4 Traditionally, the change in technological modes of production is considered in connection with the delimitation of According to the third criterion of the civilizational stages of social development. Their most accepted means of exchange with the natural differences are characterized in accordance with the method of use of technological tools: basic hand and instrumental technology environment we can define the technologies (Savagery and Barbarism), advanced instrumental technology of the post-industrial type of production; they (Cosmogenic civilization), machine technology (Technology- based civilization), information technology (Anthropogenic are based on the use of processes occurring in civilization) [23]. Differentiations of such kind characterize the nature itself, when products and services for link between social eras and historically developed technology, human activity are derived from controlled whereas our task is to consider the development of technology itself. natural processes.

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An example can be found in technologies From the viewpoint of technological for obtaining renewable energy, atomic and aspect, the industrial mode of production still molecular technology, laser processing, prevails in the world. computer-modelled production of articles According to Eurostat, the share of energy from powdered metal without cutting, milling produced from renewable sources in the total and welding. Today it is hardly possible to energy consumption of the European Union characterize the set of technologies that form is 10.3% (data for 2008). It is forecasted that the technological basis of post-industrial by 2020 the contribution of renewable energy production. However, “the difficulties and sources will have achieved 20%. These figures limitations arising out of the present state are differentiated significantly in different EU of knowledge (or, rather, ignorance) of the countries: for example, in the UK – from nature of post-industrial society should 2.5% in 2008 to 15% in 2020. In Sweden, not be considered as fragments in favor of which is the leader in renewable energy they abandoning its study” [16]. range from 44.4% to 49% [21]. We would like to draw attention to the fact The share of energy derived from renewable that the development of new technology is regarded, though not often, as the onset of sources in the U.S., according to the plans of post-industrial production. It is noted that President Barack Obama, should reach 25% the most fundamental changes connected by 2025 [13]. According to the forecast of the with biotechnology, gene and cell engineering, International Energy Agency, if the current nanotechnology, computer designing of mol- trends in the global energy sector remain the ecules of the substance are integrated into the same until 2020, the share of hydrocarbon fuels base of the new post-industrial production [10]. in the global energy structure should reduce In our opinion, the available facts show to 83% by this time and to 64% by 2050 [19]. that the use of internal natural processes in Hydrocarbon raw materials, which are the the production of goods and services can be reserves of solar energy stored in the earth’s interpreted as the initial position that crust millions of years ago will remain the main expresses the qualitative basis of post- source of energy for the coming decades. industrial production. Nowadays, human Atomic and molecular technologies and impact on nature with the use of mechanical nanotechnologies are in the initial stage of instruments of production created by man is scientific research, design, creation of decreasing, and now the characteristic feature laboratory samples and small-volume is the management of natural processes production. Western experts say these in order to obtain the necessary products technologies are not yet ready for wide and services. Thus, we can conclude that industrial application5. post-industrial production that comes after industrial production is the production of 5 “The time has not yet come for the industrial development goods using natural processes. of the construction “atom by atom” on the basis of self-organi- Following this approach, it is difficult to zation of matter, in which the components will form a structure agree with the statements that the leading through their natural process” [28]. The article [15], along with recognition of the rapid development and growth of the infl uence countries of the West already have a post- of nanotechnology in science and industry, provides just a few industrial society [2, 12]. specifi c applications of nanotechnology in the near future.

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The same can be said about laser The above characteristics of technological technology of growing products from eras, technological modes of production, are powdered metal by computer models their core characteristics, their technological completely eliminating final finishing. core. Technologies of other eras, which are First steps in the development and not separated from each other, are applied application of post-industrial production together with them. For instance, post- technologies in the leading Western countries industrial production can include segments of do not afford ground to conclude that they industrial technologies involved in supporting have already formed the technological basis of post-industrial technological processes. To post-industrial society. We can talk about the a certain extent, “post-industrial society” new wave of technology (in Russia it is called (let us say “post-industrial production”) the sixth technological mode), which can be is a continuation of trends that arise from attributed to the technology of formation of industrial society” [2]. On the other hand, post-industrial production. the principle of post-industrial production, The onset of the new (sixth) technological i.e. the use of natural processes, is inherent mode is associated with nanotechnology, to some extent in different technological eras. biomolecular technology, information and For example, agriculture, which is based on communication technology [6]. C. Perez, a relatively inexhaustible resource of land, who studies long waves of techno-economic has been the primary sector of economy for development, says that “biotechnology, thousands of years; and large hydropower nanotechnology, new energy, new materials, engineering based on the use of the water flows energy defines the image of industrial bioelectronics, etc. (in varying combinations) production, along with other sectors. can become the main driving forces of Transition to the post-industrial mode of the emerging new wave [24]. The sixth production technological mode is identified with the Being concerned with the present day post-industrial technological mode of situation and with neo-industrialization of production: “the sixth technological mode economy, we should not neglect the origin will be fully adequate to post-industrial and development of technologies of the society” [10]. post-industrial era. Intensive work is being Although technologies of the sixth carried out in this sphere all over the world. technological mode relate to the post- It is important that our country should industrial technological era, the first applied also keep pace with the formation of a achievements in this sphere are oriented new technological basis. There are certain toward the industrial mode of production. encouraging results in scientific research, They become, to a greater or lesser extent, but the lag in the creation of new industries a breakthrough technology in the neo- and in the manufacture of nanoproducts is industrialization of the domestic economy. beginning to take shape. Unfortunately, we Large-scale development up to the level of the will soon face the problem of catching-up leading technological basis will already match development in this sphere. The time factor the post-industrial mode of production. is becoming more and more important in

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the scientific and technological race. We by 2030 [34]. The development of renewable cannot allow the lag to be repeated, like it energy technologies in our country that does happened, for example, in microelectronics, not experience a shortage of energy resources the consequences of this lag have to be will improve the quality of life in the regions overcome at present due to the fact that remote from power networks, which make Russia had not joined the global system of up more than half of the country’s territory; development of microelectronics in due time. it will also optimize the structure of power Experts forecast that the technologies of generation. Advantages of renewable energy the post-industrial mode of production, based have been studied quite thoroughly [3, 19], but on discovered methods of use of renewable their implementation is currently constrained energy, application of nanometric material by its high production costs compared to particles, atomic and molecular structures hydrocarbon energy. It is estimated that will transform the basic industries of national energy from power systems, due to cheap economy: power, metallurgy, machine fuel, costs one and a half times less than building, transport, agriculture and the energy obtained through the use of wind, environment and conditions of human life. solar and in the south of Russia; as for Post-industrial technologies give rise to its central part, renewable energy resources the hopes that depletion of economically are 20–40% more expensive there than acceptable hydrocarbon resources can in the south [17]. A century of experience be delayed, that the environment can be shows that qualitatively new technological improved cardinally, that large enterprises principles, as a rule, are at first less efficient and a number of industries can be abandoned than the old ones. Russia, like other countries, in favor of technology close to natural carries out intensive scientific-technological processes, that growth of labor productivity research and industrial development of a new can be achieved. generation of solar panels, wind turbines, The main post-industrial technologies including those of a closed type; the research (excluding large hydropower, nuclear industry, aims to extend the operational properties information technology that were developed of power units and compatibility with the in the industrial era) in Russia are at the existing power networks, to increase the beginning of their formation. Current efficiency of energy facilities, reduce energy generation of power from renewable sources costs per unit of power. is less than 1% of the total power balance Other countries demonstrate a steady in the country. The target for 2020 is set at tendency towards the reduction of costs for 4.5%. However, given the planned growth renewable energy. For example, specific of generating capacities based on renewable capital investments in wind-driven power energy sources, we note that the share of plants decreased from 4000 U.S. dollars/kW renewable energy in the country’s energy mix in 1980 to 900 US dollars/kW in 1999. During by 2020 can be increased only up to 2.5%. the same period, the unit cost of photovoltaic For comparison: in Ukraine it is planned to modules has dropped from 50 thousand to increase the share of power from renewable 4–5 thousand U.S. dollars. At the same time energy sources to 12% by 2020 and to 15% renewable energy capacities are developed

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at high rates. Industrialized countries are The annual turnover is several billion euros. planning to increase the share of renewable Germany is a world leader in the number of energy in their total energy balance up to constructed wind power stations [7]. Siemens 20–50% in the first half of the 21st century. AG has installed more than 6400 wind The USA and Japan are planning to create turbines in the world. It produces equipment space-based solar power plants that transmit for small hydropower plants, installations for power via microwave beam. The Vatican is conversion of solar energy, which operate on planning to create a photovoltaic plant that all continents. Vintec (Germany) and NIBE will cover the needs for power through solar AB (Sweden) are leaders in the production of energy. heat pumps on the markets of Eastern Europe Experts are concerned about the fact that and Scandinavian countries. In Russia the intensive development of renewable energy share of foreign equipment in the development sources can deprive Russia of the foundation of renewable energy sources is 70% [7]. of its development, i.e. oil and gas export, and For our country that does not experience leave it alone with its hydrocarbon energy a shortage of hydrocarbon raw materials the [7]. In addition, “the duration of the trade development of technology and production in oil and gas depends more on the reaction of equipment for the use of renewable energy of Western countries to the market situation, is relevant not only for the solution of current rather than on the actions of Russia” [25]. problems of energy supply to the population, but The development of renewable energy also for achieving technological independence sources is usually associated with the desire in the generation of new energy based on of European countries to reduce its renewables. According to Academician A. dependency on Russian and OPEC’s Koroteev, the main problem of power in Russia hydrocarbons and to diversify energy sources. lies in the extreme backwardness of domestic Simultaneously with the solution of this power engineering [7]. problem a new industry is being formed According to experts, it is dangerous for for the production of high-tech equipment Russia to stay away from global trends, since with the development of new technologies, the country has a huge potential of renewable experience and professional competence in energy of all kinds. “One-sided reliance on this area. A global technological superiority of basic traditional power threatens us with a group of countries is being established. Their not just economic, but, rather, military- high-tech companies, enjoying intensive political problems... There is an enormous state support, become leaders of the new gap between Russia and the rest of the world power engineering and enter the markets of concerning the development of renewable developing countries. The richest countries energy sources”. A report of the RF State can direct huge subsidies to support their Duma Committee on Energy, Transport own high-tech companies [20]. Currently, and Communications points out: “Due to for example, German companies have gained the depletion of oil and natural gas deposits, strong leadership positions in the global Russian energy has to undergo significant solar energy market. Almost 40% of solar structural changes in the course of the 21st panels produced in Germany are exported. century” [7].

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It is believed that sustained interaction of manipulating the smallest particles up to 100 hydropower facilities and natural nm can be used almost indefinitely in various environment, as well as nuclear and wind sectors of industrial production, agriculture, energy will be the most effective and important medicine and information systems. spheres for development of renewable For instance, R&D carried out at the energy using the principle of natural-and- Central Research Institute of Structural technological systems for Russia in the near Materials (CRISM) “Prometey” (Saint future [18, 19, 33]. Petersburg) resulted in the production Nanotechnology, the second basic of semi-finished metallurgical products, component of post-industrial technologies in which the structure of steel is crushed is the cutting edge of modern research in the down to the nanoscale level. Such materials natural sciences; today it offers fundamental were used for constructing the offshore achievements in the creation of materials with ice-resistant platform Prirazlomnaya unique properties for many types of products and the drilling platform Arcticheskaya. and services, including renewable energy The research institute also developed a sources. A specific feature of nanoparticles method of manufacturing components from consists in their high activity and ability to join powdered metal using computer-controlled other particles and attach particles of various laser sintering, which excludes industrial materials. These properties are effectively technology of machining and welding of used to create new materials with extremely materials. This technology was used for important characteristics [14]. For example, making complex components for JSC Klimov polymers created from nano-components and OJSC Kaluga Turbine Works. “The have super-properties: they are harder than development of a number of new breakthrough diamond and 100 times harder than steel, technologies may constrain and then close they have greater smoothness than teflon the classical metallurgy, including mining, coating, they are super light and super elastic coke production, blast-furnace metallurgy and have thermal and electrical conductivity and converter processes” [8]. According to even greater than that of copper [28]. Post- expert estimates, Russia has established a industrial technologies implement controlled solid foundation for further development of synthesis of atomic and molecular structures, research into nanotechnology [1]. However, which is used for producing objects for any the application of nanotechnology is going on purpose not from common raw materials, slower than abroad. One of the reasons lies in a but directly from atoms and molecules using small demand for nanoproducts and products assembling machines. Machines that are created on the basis of nanotechnology, except able to perform the necessary operations for the demand on the part of government- with atoms are already being created. The controlled strategically important industries foundations are being laid for a technology (like aviation, aerospace, and nuclear power) of atomic and molecular-level assembly to [11]. The development of demand is directly be used in electronics, communications, connected with necessity to overcome the optics and robotics [27]. Technology of technological backwardness of a significant

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part of production capacities, to carry out nanotechnology as a lever for gaining global large-scale neo-industrialization, including economic, financial, political and military that with the use of nanotechnological domination [9]. The creation of a post- components in technological processes. The industrial form of production is associated issue of ecology and effects of new technologies with extensive research in different fields of on people remains underexplored. On the science. It requires considerable financial one hand, post-industrial technologies resources. It is estimated that further research exclude contamination typical of industrial on nanotechnology in solid-state physics at production methods; on the other hand, the Russian Academy of Sciences requires they require the research into possible over 40 billion rubles [1]. Considerable effects of application of new technological investments will be necessary for its industrial principles. development. Neo-industrialization The main spheres of nanotechnology are and care about the future technological still at the stage of research or laboratory foundation of production set out the tasks of specimens. Industrialized countries make accumulation and distribution of funds (neo- enormous investments in this field. For industrialization) and strategic directions for instance, in the USA the amount of budget post-industrial technology. It is very difficult funding for nanotechnology research is little to solve this problem in the economy with more than 1 billion U.S. dollars per year limited budget investments. [32]. Russian corporation RUSNANO has Biotechnology as a technology of the allocated 64 billion rubles and 180 billion post-industrial technological era begins to rubles of government guarantees against penetrate into every sphere of modern life. loan. The main problem is to identify an Based on the methods of genetic engineering, opportunity and to transfer laboratory it becomes one of the key areas in the nanotechnology developments into industrial development of the world economy [29]. technology, which will require high-tech Its progress is marked in the study of industrial production. Its absence arouses biological systems (proteins, microorganisms), concern among domestic researchers with biomolecular phenomena (identification of regard to application of achievements of DNA and biological processes), other nanoscience. For example, “the initiators of issues, including the creation of a production of solar converters are faced with a molecular computer, development and problem that consists in the absence of related delivery of medicines, surgical techniques, materials in the country” [26]. Therefore, biocompatibility, diagnostics, implants, and the launch of neo-industrial processes in our prosthetics. “Scientists have realized that they country in the aspect of transition to post- can control the processes designed by the industrial technology is becoming relevant. Creator and by millions of years of evolution. Post-industrial technological line in They can now create and adjust genetic Russia’s economy is based not only on programs inscribed by nature” [29]. However, internal, but also on external factors. Scientists this puts forward the issue of bioethics and warn that the leading countries consider responsibility for the consequences of the use

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of new developments and technologies and problems of interaction of substances at the the problem of avoiding irreversible adverse atomic level [4]. Post-industrial technologies effects [22]. will be based on information technology Scientific advances suggest possible future more and more extensively. Therefore, it is dramatic changes in technology of producing hardly justified to associate microelectronics goods necessary for human life. Forty years only with the fifth technological mode. The ago, American sociologist A. Toffler use of information production technologies wrote: “Today a new science based on the will require creation of new microelectronic principle of harnessing the development of devices in the post-industrial era as well. microorganisms is rapidly emerging and it Nano-, bio-, and information technology promises to change the very nature of industry proclaimed as the key directions of the sixth as we know it” [31]. technological mode, are intended to become Information technology plays an crucial in geopolitical competition until the increasingly important role in the development middle of the 21st century [5]. Performing of neo-industrial and post-industrial this role, they can participate in neo- technology. The functions of information industrialization by transforming the technology are continuously expanding. Now industrial sector, and also in the formation they are becoming part of material production of an independent part of post-industrial technology. Information technology is production, i.e. production based on atomic embedded in technological processes of and molecular technology. Gradually its industrial production; it also participates in growth in the future, together with the the creation of complex objects, such as the dominance of renewable energy, will mean simulation of airflow about a real aircraft using the transition from industrial to post- supercomputing technology. It is noteworthy industrial production. that in the USA supercomputing is considered The present article considers the a priority area along with alternative energy development and change of technological sources and nanotechnology. Russia has a eras from the perspective of the evolution of computer network founded on an academic the means of exchange of man with the base. It links the main centers into a single natural environment with the purpose of unit. There is a supercomputer with the peak receiving consumption products. Using this processing capacity of 94 million floating- characteristic we can select the criteria of point operations per second at the Russian pre-industrial, industrial and post-industrial Academy of Sciences, and a supercomputer technological modes of production. A with the capacity of 47 million floating- widespread concept of post-industrial society point operations per second at Lomonosov does not reflect its inherent technological Moscow State University. The system basis, technological mode of production of education has at least six fairly large other than industrial. The transition from supercomputers. The country has created industrial to post-industrial production marks prerequisites for the solution of practical the use of controlled natural processes as the problems. Supercomputers help solve the basic technology.

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One of the priority spheres for Russia is industrial production can in the near neo-industrialization as the necessity to future set a permanent task of catching- overcome technological backwardness, to up development. We can talk about the catch up with the global technological level coordination of ongoing research in this and as a condition for the creation of material area in the institutions of the Russian prerequisites for the emergence of post- Academy of Sciences, universities, sectoral industrial technology. associations, and research supported by JSC However, already at present we must not RUSNANO, Research Center SKOLKOVO allow our country to fall behind in the and investment funds. The set of measures formation of the scientific-and-technological that are implemented at the federal level is base for post-industrial production. intended to prevent our country from lagging Insufficient (according to world standards) behind in its scientific development and to public funding provided to scientific create the material base for the future post- research and to the formation of post- industrial production.

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14. Knyazhitskaya O. I. Where There are Innovations – There is Success. Role of Nanotechnologies. Strategy for Innovative Development of Regions of the Northwest of Russia: Experience and Problems. The IV International Research-to-Practice Conference “Management of Innovative Development of Regions and Corporate Structures”: Collection of Scientific Works. Saint Petersburg, 2009, pp. 406-410. 15. Landree E. General Directions of Nanotechnology Development to 2020. Russian Nanotechnologies, 2007, vol. 2, no. 3–4, pp. 8-15. 16. Mau V. Postcommunist Russia in the Postindustrial World. Issues of Economy, 2002, no.7, pp. 4-25. 17. Makarov A. A. Scientific and Technological Forecasts and Problems of Development of Power Industry of Russia till 2030. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009, no. 3, pp. 206-215. 18. Makarov A. A. Prospects of Development of Power Engineering of Russia. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009, no. 4, pp. 291-300. 19. Musambekov K. Neoindustrial Type of Development and Renewable Energy Sources. The Economist, 2011, no. 5, pp. 37-46. 20. Nasonov S. Green Comfort. Expert, 2011, no. 127, p. 80. 21. To the contrary, 2010, 28, p. 34. 22. Osipov Yu.S. Concluding Remarks at the Scientific Session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Science. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009, no.3, p. 258. 23. Fundamentals of Modern Philosophy. Saint-Petresburg: Lan’, 2001. 382 p. 24. Pérez C. In Twenty Years Prior to Boom. Interview. Expert, 2012, no. 2, p. 37. 25. Pivnyuk V. A. Problem Issues of Business Participation in Large-Scale Innovative Projects. Innovations, 2008, no. 4, pp. 11-15. 26. Pivnyuk V. A. New Technology for Future Power Engineering. Discussion of Scientific Community. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2008, no. 9, pp. 787-791. 27. Popova E. V. Possible Directions of Innovative Development of the Military-Industrial Complex. Innovations, 2007, no. 12, pp. 30-36. 28. Rommens A. Nanotechnology. Atomic-Molecular Revolution. The Angelinvestor, 2008, no. 1, p. 62. 29. Skryabin K. G. Fundamental and Applied Biotechnology is an Answer to the Challenge of the 21st Century. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2009, no. 3, pp. 242-245. 30. Sukharev O., Neshitoi A. Intellectual Potential and its Neo-Industrial Production. The Economist, 2011, no. 10, pp. 3-11. 31. Toffler A. Future Shock. Moscow: Izd-vo AST, 2002, p. 217. 32. Tret’yakov Yu. D. Problems of Nanotechnology Development in Russia and Abroad. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2007, no.1, pp. 3-10. 33. Fedorov M. P. Natural-Technological Systems in Power Engineering. Science and Society. Economy and Sociology in the 21st Century. The V Petersburg Meeting of Nobel Prize Laureates (18–22 October, 2010): Theses of Plenary Reports, Saint Petersburg, 2010, pp. 79-83. 34. Fortov V. E., Poppel O. S. Renewable Energy Sources in the World and in Russia: Proceedings of the First Interna- tional Forum “Renewable energy. Towards Raising Energy and Economic Efficiencies” (REENFOR – 2013 October, 22–23, 2013. Moscow, 2013, pp. 12-22. 35. Cherkovets V. N. Modernization of the Productive Forces and Upgrade of the Economic Model – Critical Issues of Modern Russia. Innovative Development of the Russian Economy: the Role of Universities: Collection of Articles of the III International Research Conference. Moscow, 2010, vol. 1, pp. 35-42.

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References 1. Alferov J. I. O programme Rossiiskoy alademii nauk v oblasti nanotehnologii [About the Program of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the Field of Nanotechnologies]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2008, no. 5, pp. 427-434. 2. Bell D. Gryadushchee postindustrial’noe obshchestvo: opyt sotsial’nogo prognozirovaniya [The Coming of Post- Industrial Society: A Venture of Social Forecasting]. Moscow: Academia, 2004, 458p. 3. Varfolomeev S. D., Moiseev I. I., Myasoedov B. F. Energonositeli iz vozobnovlyaemogo syr’ya. [Energy Carriers from Renewable Raw Materials]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2009, no. 7, pp.595-603. 4. Velihov E. P. Perspektivy tehnologicheskogo perevooruzheniya promyshlennosti, nauki i obrazovaniya Rossii na osnove massovyh superkomp’uternyh tehnologiy [Prospects for Technological Modernization of the Industry, Science and Education of Russia on the Basis of Mass Supercomputer Technologies]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2009, no 3, pp. 237-242. 5. Glaziev S. Kakaya modernizatsiya nuzhna Rossii [What Modernization is Necessary to Russia]. Ekonomist [The Economist], 2010, no. 8, pp. 3-17. 6. Glaziev S. Sest’ na greben’ novoy volny [To Sit Down on a Crest of a New Wave]. Odnako [To the Contrary], 2011, no. 32, pp. 21-24. 7. Gorevanov A. M. VIE – kachestvennyi etap razvitiya globalizatsii ekonomiki. Zachem Rossii neobkhodimo razvivat’ VIE? [RSE is a Qualitative Stage of Development of Globalization of Economy. Why Russia Needs to Develop RSE?]. Tretii innovatsionnyi forum “RES– 2010” (12–13 maya 2010 g.): sb. materialov (tezisy i doklady) [Third Innovative Forum “RES – 2010” (May 12–13, 2010): Collection of Materials (Theses and Reports)], Saint Petersburg, 2010, pp. 42-60. 8. Gorynin I. V. Nauka o materialakh – vzglyad v budushchee. [Science about Materials – Prospection]. Nauka i obshchestvo. Ekonomika i sotsiologiya v XXI veke. V Peterburgskaya vstrecha laureatov Nobelevskoi premii (18–22 okt. 2010 g.): tezisy plenarnykh dokladov [Science and Society. Economy and Sociology in the 21st Century. The V Petersburg Meeting of Nobel Prize Laureates (18–22 October, 2010): Theses of Plenary Reports], Saint Petersburg, 2010, pp. 27-29. 9. Gorynin I. V. Issledovaniya i razrabotki FGUP TsNII KM “Prometei” v oblasti konstruktsionnykh materialov [Researches and Development of FGUP CNII KM “Prometey” in the Field of Constructional Materials]. Rossiiskie nanotekhnologii [Russian Nanotechnologies], 2007, vol. 2, no. 3–4, pp. 36-56. 10. Dumarevskii D. B. Tekhnologicheskie formy sootnosheniya obshchestva i prirody: logiko-istoricheskii aspekt [Technological Forms of a Ratio of Society and Nature: Logic-Historical Aspect]. Istoriya vzaimodeistviya obshchestva i prirody: fakty i kontseptsii: tezisy [History of Society-Nature Interaction: Facts and Concepts: Theses], Moscow, 1990, pp. 101-102. 11. Innovatsionnaya politika. Rossiya i Mir. 2002–2010 [Innovation Policy. Russia and the World. 2002–2010]. Moscow: Nauka, 2011. 449 p. 12. Inozemtsev V. L. Za predelami ekonomicheskogo obshchestva [Outside Economic Society]. Moscow: Acade- mia – Nauka, 1998. 640 p. 13. Kirillov N. G. Osnovnye mirovye tendentsii razvitiya al’ternativnoi i maloi energetiki [Main World Tendencies to Develop an Alternative and Small-Scale Power Generation]. Tretii innovatsionnyi forum “RES – 2010” (12–13 maya 2010 g.): sb. materialov (tezisy i doklady) [Third Innovative Forum “RES – 2010” (May 12-13, 2010): Collection of Materials (Theses and Reports)], Saint Petersburg, 2010, pp. 6-8. 14. Knyazhitskaya O. I. Gde est’ innovatsii – tam est’ uspekh. Rol’ nanotekhnologii [Where There are Innovations – There is Success. Role of Nanotechnologies]. Strategiya innovatsionnogo razvitiya regionov Severo-Zapada Rossii:

60 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY A.A. Rumyantsev

opyt i problemy. IV mezhd. nauch.-prakt. konf. “Upravlenie innovatsionnym razvitiem regionov i korporativnykh struktur”: sb. nauch. trudov [Strategy for Innovative Development of Regions of the Northwest of Russia: Experience and Problems. The IV International Research-to-Practice Conference “Management of Innovative Development of Regions and Corporate Structures”: Collection of Scientific Works]. Saint Petersburg, 2009, pp. 406-410. 15. Landree E. Obshchie napravleniya razvitiya nanotekhnologii do 2020 g. [General Directions of Nanotechnology Development to 2020]. Rossiiskie nanotekhnologii [Russian Nanotechnologies], 2007, vol. 2, no. 3–4, pp. 8-15. 16. Mau V. Postkommunisticheskaya Rossiya v postindustril’nom mire [Postcommunist Russia in the Postindustrial World]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Issues of Economy], 2002, no.7, pp. 4-25. 17. Makarov A. A. Nauchno-tekhnologicheskie prognozy i problemy razvitiya energetiki Rossii do 2030 goda [Scientific and Technological Forecasts and Problems of Development of Power Industry of Russia till 2030]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2009, no. 3, pp. 206-215. 18. Makarov A. A. Perspektivy razvitiya energetiki Rossii [Prospects of Development of Power Engineering of Russia]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2009, no. 4, pp. 291-300. 19. Musambekov K. Neoindustrial’nyi tip razvitiya i vozobnovlyaemye istochniki energii [Neoindustrial Type of Development and Renewable Energy Sources]. Ekonomist [The Economist], 2011, no. 5, pp. 37-46. 20. Nasonov S. Zelenyi komfort [Green Comfort]. Ekspert [Expert], 2011, no. 127, p. 80. 21. Odnako [To the Contrary], 2010, 28, p. 34. 22. Osipov Yu.S. Zaklyuchitel’noe slovo na nauchnoi sessii Obshchego sobraniya RAN [Concluding Remarks at the Scientific Session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Science]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2009, no.3, p. 258. 23. Osnovy sovremennoi filosofii [Fundamentals of Modern Philosophy]. Saint-Petresburg: Lan’, 2001. 382 p. 24. Pérez C. Za dvadtsat’ let do buma. Interv’yu [In Twenty Years Prior to Boom. Interview]. Ekspert [Expert], 2012, no. 2, p. 37. 25. Pivnyuk V. A. Problemnye voprosy uchastiya biznesa v krupnomasshtabnykh innovatsionnykh proektakh [Problem Issues of Business Participation in Large-Scale Innovative Projects]. Innovatsii [Innovations], 2008, no. 4, pp. 11-15. 26. Pivnyuk V. A. Novaya tekhnologiya dlya budushchei energetiki. Obsuzhdenie nauchnogo soobshcheniya [New Technology for Future Power Engineering. Discussion of Scientific Community]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2008, no. 9, pp. 787-791. 27. Popova E. V. Vozmozhnye napravleniya innovatsionnogo razvitiya oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa [Possible Directions of Innovative Development of the Military-Industrial Complex]. Innovatsii [Innovations], 2007, no. 12, pp. 30-36. 28. Rommens A. Nanotekhnologii. Atomno-molekulyarnaya revolyutsiya [Nanotechnology. Atomic-Molecular Revolution]. The Angelinvestor, 2008, no. 1, p. 62. 29. Skryabin K. G. Fundamental’naya i prikladnaya biotekhnologiya – otvet na vyzov XXI veka [Fundamental and Applied Biotechnology is an Answer to the Challenge of the 21st Century]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2009, no. 3, pp. 242-245. 30. Sukharev O., Neshitoi A. Intellektual’nyi potentsial i ego neoindustrial’noe proizvodstvo [Intellectual Potential and its Neo-Industrial Production]. Ekonomist [The Economist], 2011, no. 10, pp. 3-11. 31. Toffler A. Shok budushchego [Future Shock]. Moscow: Izd-vo AST, 2002, p. 217. 32. Tret’yakov Yu. D. Problemy razvitiya nanotekhnologii v Rossii i za rubezhom [Problems of Nanotechnology Development in Russia and Abroad]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk [Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2007, no.1, pp. 3-10.

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33. Fedorov M. P. Prirodno-tekhnicheskie sistemy v energetike [Natural-Technological Systems in Power Engineering]. Nauka i obshchestvo. Ekonomika i sotsiologiya v XXI veke. V Peterburgskaya vstrecha laureatov Nobelevskoi premii. Tezisy plenarnykh dokladov [Science and Society. Economy and Sociology in the 21st Century. The V Petersburg Meeting of Nobel Prize Laureates (18–22 October, 2010): Theses of Plenary Reports], Saint Petersburg, 2010, pp. 79-83. 34. Fortov V. E., Poppel O. S. Vozobnovlyaemye istochniki energii v mire i v Rossii: materialy Pervogo mezhd. foruma “Vozobnovlyaemaya energetika. Puti povysheniya energeticheskoi i ekonomicheskoi effektivnosti” (REENFOR – 2013 22–23 okt. 2013 g.) [Renewable Energy Sources in the World and in Russia: Proceedings of the First International Forum “Renewable energy. Towards Raising Energy and Economic Efficiencies” (REENFOR – 2013 October, 22–23, 2013]. Moscow, 2013, pp. 12-22. 35. Cherkovets V. N. Modernizatsiya proizvoditel’nykh sil i korrektsiya ekonomicheskoi modeli – aktual’nye problemy sovremennoi Rossii [Modernization of the Productive Forces and Upgrade of the Economic Model – Critical Issues of Modern Russia]. Innovatsionnoe razvitie ekonomiki Rossii: rol’ universitetov: sb. statei III Mezhd. nauch. konf. [Innovative Development of the Russian Economy: the Role of Universities: Collection of Articles of the III International Research Conference]. Moscow, 2010, vol. 1, pp. 35-42.

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UDC 338.2, LBC 65.23(2Rus) © Uskova T.V., Chekavinskii A.N. Law on strategic planning in the Russian Federation: advantages and unresolved issues (expert evaluation)

Tamara Vitalyevna USKOVA Doctor of Economics, Deputy Director, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Aleksandr Nikolaevich CHEKAVINSKII Research Associate, Acting Head of the Laboratory, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article substantiates the necessity to adopt the Federal Law “On strategic planning in the Russian Federation” as of June 28, 2014, No. 172-FL and reveals its advantages. At the same time, it draws attention to a number of strategic planning issues, not stipulated by the law, and suggests measures for further improvement of the legislation.

Key words: strategic planning, legislation, implementation mechanisms.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 63 Law on strategic planning in the Russian Federation: advantages and unresolved issues (expert evaluation)

1. General provisions O.S. Sukharev, Doctor of Economics, So far, not all the regions and municipalities Professor of RAS Institute of Economics of Russia have adopted strategies for long- believes that with the adoption of the Federal term socio-economic development. In many Law No. 127 Russia got an opportunity for cases there is no integration and coordination the “revival and efficient functioning of the between various planning documents system of planning”2. At the same time he (strategies, concepts, programs, and others); draws attention to the fact that the positive this fact leads to the disruption of their impact of the law in the future is determined implementation and negatively affects by how it will be implemented. administration effectiveness in the territories. According to O.S. Sukharev, the formation It is necessary to define clearly the general lines of development for the defence, social, of the proportions and structure of the socio- technological and economic spheres of economic system by its elements and the country in the long term. directions involves the participation of analysts, In connection with the above circum- economists, modellers, mathematicians, stances, the adoption of the Federal Law scientists and others in this process. And if “On strategic planning in the Russian Fede- such work is organized, it will contribute to ration” dated June 28, 2014 No. 172-FL the development of Russia’s economy. (hereinafter – FL No.172) is a necessary step Political consultant A. Wasserman believes toward the formation of an integrated system that, if FL No. 127 is executed at all the levels of strategic planning that covers federal, of power in Russia, it will be possible to regional and municipal levels. enhance economic efficiency. According Several Russian economists highlighted to his viewpoint, this is conditioned by the advisability of introducing this law into the fact that the “single plan” contains the regulatory framework. For instance, information about the processes occurring E.V. Zhirnel, the Deputy Director of throughout the whole technological chain. the Institute of Economics, Karelian Research Therefore, the determination of the planning Center of RAS has noted that “the law actually changes the situation in the public landmarks allows a manager to make well- and municipal administration. If earlier the grounded decisions with less effort and 3 territorial strategic planning was chaotic and greater accuracy . However, A. Wasserman “everyone was doing whatever he felt like”, emphasizes that “the state has insufficient then in the coming years the country will resources for strict planning”. Currently, establish a new strategic planning system. 2 Ermakova A., Ignatova K. Vypolnyat’ i perevypolnyat’: 1 Strategies at all levels will be linked” . vernetsya li pravitel’stvo k “pyatiletkam”? [To Fulfill and Overfulfill: Will the Government Return to “Five-Year Plans”?]. Available at: http://rosinform..ru/2014/07/12/ 1 Zhirnel E. Uslovii dlya investitsionnogo buma v Karelii vypolnyat-i-perevapolnyat-pravitelstvo-vozvrachaetsya-k- net [There Are no Conditions for Investment Boom in Karelia]. pyatiletkam/ Available at: http://vesti.karelia.ru/kapit/uslovij_dlya_investi- 3 Vse idet po planu [Everything Goes according to Plan]. cionnogo_buma_v_karelii_net/ Available at: http://nakanune.ru/articcles|19178

64 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY T.V. Uskova, A.N. Chekavinskii

when production capacities are mainly goal-setting by economic entities, and divided between numerous owners, and the perform for them the function of “beacons state has direct control only over a small part that cast light on promising areas of economy of them, it is impossible to provide the level and government policy”5. of planning, like that, for example, of the In addition, the urgent necessity to create USSR. Therefore, there is no certainty in the a strategic planning system covering all implementation of the plan. This viewpoint levels of government was proved many times is supported by M. Delyagin, the Director by the leading Russian scientists (S. Glazyev, of the Institute of Globalization Problems, P.A. Minakir and others)6. who supports the very fact of V.V. Putin’s 2. Summary of materials submitted approval of FL No. 127. At the same time, FL No. 127 sets the legal standards for according to the expert, it will be impossible strategic planning, coordination of public to improve the efficiency of the economy and municipal strategic administration and without appropriate organizational work, budgetary policy in Russia. It defines the and the law will remain wishful thinking, like powers of the federal and regional public many others before it4. authorities and local government bodies, In our opinion, the sceptical attitude of types of strategic planning documents and some experts regarding the participation of requirements to their content. business structures in the implementation of The approach to the formation of the state the strategy is not quite justified. We are strategic planning system proposed by the law talking about the indicative form of strategic can be considered successful from the planning, the use of which by advanced viewpoint of the detailed regulation of the Western countries (Japan, South Korea, process of approval of the list of documents on France and others) has proved its effectiveness. the state strategic planning, coordination of Unlike planning directives coming from documents of the federal and regional levels, above, which are typical for centralized distribution of power between the participants economies, indicative plans do not contain of this process, and from the viewpoint of mandatory tasks for economic entities, and control. they are developed in consultation with and consideration of the proposals of business 5 Glazyev S.Yu. Sostoitsya li v 1999-m perekhod k politike community and scientific community. The rosta? [Will There Be a Transition to the Policy of Growth in 1999?]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal [Russian Economic very procedure for preparation of the plan Journal], 1999, no.1, pp. 22-39; no.2, pp. 14-32. aims to form a national consensus on the 6 Glazyev S.Yu. O strategii modernizatsii i razvitiya ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh global’noi depressii [On the priorities of the country’s socio-economic Strategy of Modernization and Development of Russian development and relies on the functioning Economy in a Global Depression]. Ekonomika regiona [Economics of the Region], 2011, no.2, pp. 14-27; Minakir of the institutions of social partnership. P.A. Mify i real’nost’ prostranstvennykh ekonomicheskikh Indicative plans do not impede independent disproportsii [The Myths and Realities of Spatial Economic Disproportions]. Federalizm [Federalism], 2011, no.1, 4 Ibidem. pp. 43-56.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 65 Law on strategic planning in the Russian Federation: advantages and unresolved issues (expert evaluation)

The undoubted advantage of the project of development of a unified planning system is the consolidation of the status of sectoral are violated. strategic planning documents (Article 11 of • It is advisable to explain what the Chapter 3), to which there have been no developers of FL No. 127 mean by socio- uniform requirements developed by the economic policy and socio-economic current legislation up to this time. development, because in Article 8 of Chap- It is important that FL No. 127 contains ter 3 these categories are separated. provisions, according to which the draft • We believe it is necessary to eliminate documents on the state strategic planning are the “fuzziness” of the powers of the supreme subject to public discussion and placement on executive authority of the RF subject by the Internet (Article 13 of Chapter 3). Thus, specifying the exact content of its participation the role of public and scientific organizations, in ensuring the implementation of the unified employers’ associations, trade unions, and state policy in the sphere of strategic planning other active participants of civil society (Article 10 of Chapter 3). becomes more important in the development • It is important to specify in the text of of these documents. the law, what the scheme of development of 3. Comments and suggestions economic sectors represents (Article 19 of Certain provisions of the document under Chapter 5) and what information this document our analysis require clarification and should contain. improvement, in our opinion. • To comply with the principle of the • We believe it is necessary in Article 3 unity and integrity of the system of strategic of Chapter 1 to clarify the concept of the planning documents, we believe it is necessary strategy for socio-economic development of to amend Article 28 of Chapter 7 of FL the Russian Federation (the subject of the No. 127 by clearly defining the period for Russian Federation, the subject of municipal which the RF state programs are adopted. We administration), defining it as a strategic also believe it is appropriate to expand the list planning document, which reflects not of strategic planning documents developed only the priorities, goals and objectives of at the level of the RF subject by including administration, but also the mechanisms and the sectoral strategic planning documents in activities to achieve them. the list. • It is advisable to expand the powers of • In our view, it is necessary to eliminate the state authorities of the RF subjects in the the contradiction consisting in the fact that sphere of strategic planning in terms of short-term documents (the annual Address providing coordination and balance of of the President of the Russian Federation) strategic planning documents developed at in accordance with Article 15 of Chapter 4 both regional and municipal levels (Article 5 are the basis for defining strategic goals and of Chapter 2). Otherwise, the basic principles priorities of socio-economic development.

66 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY T.V. Uskova, A.N. Chekavinskii

• We consider it necessary to bring the There is no information about the content, content of Article 11 of Chapter 3 in line procedure of development and approval of with the provisions of Chapter 11. In par- the other documents. ticular, Paragraph 5 of Article 11 of Chapter 4. Conclusions and recommendations 3 of FL No. 127 states that the strategic The adoption of the Federal Law No. 127, planning documents developed at the which establishes the legal framework for municipal level include the strategy for strategic planning in Russia and ensures the socio-economic development, the plan coordination of public and municipal of measures for its implementation, the administration and budgetary policy, is an forecast of socio-economic development imperative of these days. At the same time, in the medium and long term, the bud- we believe that the improvement of the law in get forecast and the municipal program. order to eliminate the identified drawbacks However, Chapter 11 mentions only the will enhance the effectiveness of the strategic first two types of the above documents. planning system in the Russian Federation.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 67 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

UDC 338(470.23-25), LBC 65.9(2-2SPb) © Batchaev A.R., Zhikharevich B.S. Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet time: economic strategies and development

Artur Ruslanovich BATCHAEV Ph.D. in Economics, Head of the Department for Territorial Strategic Planning of ICSER “Leontief Centre” (25, 7th Krasoarmeyskaya Street, Saint Petersburg, 190005, Russia, [email protected])

Boris Savelievich ZHIKHAREVICH Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Research Associate at the Institute of Regional Economy of RAS, Director of the Resource Center for Strategic Planning under ICSER “Leontief Centre” (25, 7th Krasoarmeyskaya Street, Saint Petersburg, 190005, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. This paper studies the main features and results of economic development of Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet period. The purpose was to determine the extent of influence of urban development on the results of development of Saint Petersburg during this period. The method used in this study consists in the processing of a large array of statistical and analytical materials and regulatory framework; determination of the mutual relationship between the achieved results and the implementation of the program-planning documents that define the objectives, priorities and tasks of socio-economic development of Saint Petersburg. In the course of work the authors have highlighted seven key stages in the development of the city’s economy for the past 22 years, and six stages of development of the socio-economic planning system. The research into the specifics of Saint Petersburg economy within these stages shows that external conditions have a decisive influence on the results of its economic development.

68 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY A.R. Batchaev, B.S. Zhikharevich

The results of this work can be used for improving the practice of state and municipal management, including the implementation of socio-economic development planning of regions and cities of Russia. The study has concluded that the cycles of updating of the program-planning documents and changing approaches to public planning are set in Saint Petersburg rather from the outside, and they are connected with changes in the external conditions for development. The elaboration of urban strategic, conceptual and other program-planning documents has an insignificant impact on the development of the city. Key words: economic development, Saint Petersburg, long-term planning, reforms, strategy, economic structure.

A little more than 20 years have passed mainly by trade, transport, construction, since 1991, a year marked by the collapse of property management, tourism, banking and socialist economy, breakup of the Soviet insurance activities. The laws of the market Union and beginning of radical economic worked, and the sectors that were more reforms. The term is not so big by the efficient under the conditions of a large city standards of the 310-year history of Saint supplanted less efficient ones. Petersburg. However, this period witnessed Changes in the economy resulted in revolutionary changes in the political system, dramatic changes in the image of Saint economy and social sphere, the changes that Petersburg and the way of life of its residents. in many other countries required more than The historic center of the city is used more a century. Demonopolization of economy as a tourism zone, an area of business and and support of competition contributed to administration, leisure and cultural activities. the emergence of a large number of new The scale of housing construction and enterprises, including those related to small construction of public and business objects and medium business. The city’s economy has has increased. Significant transformations rapidly integrated into the world economic have been carried out in the suburban areas system. Real estate markets, securities and with the creation of new production and financial and banking services markets have public and business objects, recreation zones emerged and are now actively developing. and low-rise housing blocks. In all the areas of The structure of Saint Petersburg economy the city there are several major zones of retail has changed dramatically over the past two trade, represented by modern shops. The decades. It has become more similar to the growth of the residents’ incomes in the foreign structures of the economies in the cities currency equivalent, and the accessibility of of the same scale in developed countries. consumer lending allow the citizens to buy At the beginning of the 1990s more than quality imported goods, including durables, half of the city’s economic potential was and to go on holiday abroad. concentrated in heavy industry, mainly in the However, the reforms have not improved military-industrial complex. Now a leading every sphere of the city life. Problems in the role in the economy of Saint Petersburg housing and utilities sector, public and belongs to the services sector, represented personal safety, and traffic still remain, or

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 69 Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet time: economic strategies and development

have become even more acute. There has Consumption of basic food products per been a decrease in the availability of free resident decreased: for example, consumption services provided to the population by health of meat and meat products – from 78 kg to care, education, culture, social facilities, 56 kg, consumption of milk and dairy physical culture and sports. One witnesses the products – from 419 kg to 217 kg. The manifold financial and property stratification resident population of Saint Petersburg of the residents, the reduction in the level of reduced from 4 971 thousand people (end scientific and technological potential and of 1991) to 4 746 thousand people (end of in the level of food security. Rapid urban 1996) [1, p. 46, 47]1. Due to a decline in building development has led to the reduction the standard of living, people started to buy of the area of public space. fewer consumer goods, placing a priority on What is the role of urban planning in these foodstuffs. All this caused a negative reaction dramatic changes? Was this planning from a considerable part of the population, reasonable; was it possible to achieve more? who related their plight to the ongoing Did urban planning have any influence on economic reforms. the market forces stirred up by the reforms? Despite all these difficulties, Saint We will try to answer these questions by Petersburg has become the main ideological comparing chronologically the dynamics of center for economic reform and leader by the development of economy and planning in rate of their implementation. For example, Saint Petersburg. rapid economic restructuring helped to Economic development of Saint Peters- cope with large-scale job cuts at industrial burg over the last 22 years can be divided into enterprises and state-financed organizations. several key stages (figure). The first stage cov- Part of dismissed workers was able to find ers 1992–1996. This period is the most dif- a job in the rapidly developing sector of ficult and controversial in the contemporary commercial and business activity and in the history of Saint Petersburg and Russia as a sphere of small business. Markets of securities whole. These years witnessed liberalization and real estate were established as a result of of prices and foreign economic activity, mass privatization. The property of a huge number privatization, demonopolization, promotion of privatized enterprises became involved in of competition and entrepreneurship. Trou- economic turnover. blesome reforms were accompanied by deep Economic development in this period was crisis phenomena: rising unemployment, influenced by the documents elaborated in falling incomes, economic decline, political the early 1990s. They comprised general instability, hyperinflation, raging crime. documents on socio-economic development We can understand the scale of the crisis, of the city as a whole. These include if we compare the statistics for 1996 to the 1 Here and elsewhere the number of resident population corresponding indicators in the pre-reform up to 2010 is given on the basis of the data of Petrostat (Ter- 1991. The volume of industrial production ritorial Body of the Federal State Statistics Service in Saint Petersburg and the ), calculated according in Saint Petersburg decreased by almost 70%. to the methodology used at that period of time.

70 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY A.R. Batchaev, B.S. Zhikharevich

) resent 2030 p 2011- ( 7 stage The Concept for Socio- G.S. Poltavchenko Economic Development of Saint Petersburg until 2020 The Concept for Socio- Economic Development of Saint Petersburg until 6 stage

) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2003-2011 ( V.I. Matvienko The Concept for Socio- Economic Development of Saint Petersburg until 2025 5 stage The General Plan of Saint Petersburg Planning The System of State 4 stage

) 1996-2003 ( V.A. Yakovlev 3 stage 2 stage The Strategic Plan of Saint Petersburg Stages of economic development, Saint Petersburg in the post-Soviet period

) 1 stage conditions rise Zones p Executive Committee of Lensovet under Crisis Saint Petersburg-2000 Program of Actions of the 1991-1996 ( A.A. Sobchak of the Leningrad Free Enter The Concept for Regional Economic Substantiation Advanced Economic Zone Feasibility Study and Socio- Feasibility Development of the Leningrad 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991

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“The program of action for the Executive At the end of 1997 the work on the Committee of Lensovet (the Leningrad City Strategic Plan of Saint Petersburg, which had Soviet of People’s Deputies) under the crisis” been going on for half a year, was completed. and the program “Saint Petersburg-2000”. In Saint Petersburg became the first Russian city, addition, some documents were elaborated which adopted a strategic plan. on certain reform directions, for example Among the most negative trends prevailing the Program for privatization of state and in the economy in the period under municipal enterprises. consideration one should highlight the The second stage covers 1997 and the first growth of domestic and external debt. In half of 1998. It is characterized by the the mid-1990s the borrowing powers of the stabilization of the situation, low inflation, territories were expanded. This opportunity and slight improvement in the number of was exploited actively by Saint Petersburg other economic indicators. For instance, for authorities. This period is characterized by the first time in the whole period of reforms increased issuing of regional and municipal in 1997 industrial production increased by securities. As of the end of 1996, the largest 7%. The volume of gross regional product volume of government bonds (6 trillion (GRP) reduced only by 1.4% 2. The indicators rubles) 3 in the Russian regions was released in of attraction of investments, including foreign, Saint Petersburg. The increase in the volume improved. Investments in fixed capital increased of borrowings at the state level, exceeding by 17%. Consumer price index grew by only their redeemability, became one of the main 13%, which is significantly lower than in causes of a profound financial crisis in August previous periods of the 1990s (for comparison: 1998. consumer prices in 1992 in Saint Petersburg The period of the crisis in 1998 can be grew 21.8-fold, in 1996 – by 25.2%) [1, pp. considered the third stage of economic 46-48]. These positive trends remained in the development of Saint Petersburg. The onset first half of 1998 as well. of financial crisis was characterized by Stabilization of the situation and a certain dramatic deterioration of economic situation improvement of economic performance in the city. According to the results of 1998, created favorable conditions for the the volume of GRP decreased by 5.3%, resumption of planned approaches to the industrial production declined by 1.5%, development of Saint Petersburg, in the consumer price index increased by 78% long term as well. In January 1997, the [2, pp. 353-899]. This difficult situation Government adopted the Program of action required urgent anti-crisis measures on the of the Administration aimed at stabilization part of the authorities. In September 1998 the and further development of Saint Petersburg’s Program of Saint Petersburg Government for economy in 1997–2000. overcoming the financial-economic crisis and normalizing the situation in the economy and 2 Here and elsewhere the data on the changes of the value social sphere of the city was adopted. indicators are given in comparable prices, unless indicated otherwise. 3 Pre-denomination rubles.

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These measures helped to prevent the the improvement of the situation in the city’s development of events by the most negative economy. Within several years the city scenario. Repeated devaluation of the ruble, authorities adopted a deficit-free budget, which was considered as a purely negative fulfilled all domestic and international phenomenon, on the one hand, the result of obligations on repayment of loans and which was the fall of the standard of living redemption of bonds. Reduction of arrears of population, the imbalances in foreign in wages and social benefits contributed to trade and public finance system, has created the expansion of consumer demand in the important conditions for overcoming the consumer market. Preparation for celebrating crisis, on the other hand. the 300th anniversary of the founding of Saint The fourth stage of economic development Petersburg helped improve the economic of Saint Petersburg covers 1999–2003. This situation in the city, because the event stage is characterized by transition to attracted significant investment from the sustainable economic growth due to the effect federal budget for improving infrastructure. of devaluation of the ruble. In 1999–2000 The main long-term plan in the period was enterprises were adapting to new economic the 1997 Strategic Plan of Saint Petersburg. conditions caused by repeated devaluation Positive dynamics of economic growth of the ruble, high inflation and sharp decline achieved in 1999–2003 has created the basis in imports. It was during these years that for transition to a fundamentally new stage of the economy began to revive and grow. The development of Saint Petersburg. elimination of imported goods from trade The fifth stage of the city’s economic led to the growth of production output at development (2004–2008) became the most Saint Petersburg enterprises; for the first successful in its recent history. After the effect time since the beginning of the reforms, the of devaluation of the ruble expired, economic share of goods production in the structure of growth in Saint Petersburg was promoted Saint Petersburg GRP began to increase. Price mainly through consumer demand and growth rates were slowing down. If at the end significant inflow of investment. For 2004– of 1999 consumer price index rose by 41.1%, 2008 GRP increased in 1.55 times, investments in 2003 it grew only by 12.2% [2, p. 899]. The in fixed capital – in 1.64 times, revenues of period of 1999–2003 experienced significant consolidated budget – in 3.6 times5. The increase in such macroeconomic indicators as scope of integration of Saint Petersburg GRP – by 156%, investments in fixed capital into the world economic system expanded. – in 2.39 times, industrial production – in In 1992 foreign trade turnover was only 1.9 times 4. 0.4 billion U.S. dollars (including export –

The responsible financial policy of Saint 5 The authors’ calculations based on the data of the Petersburg authorities had positive effect on statistical digest Regiony Rossii. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2010: stat. sb. [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic 4 The authors’ calculations based on the data of the statis- Indicators. 2010: Statistical Digest]. Rosstat. Moscow, 2010. tical digest Regiony Rossii. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 996 p. Here and elsewhere the increase of the revenues of 2005: stat. sb. [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. consolidated budget is given in comparable prices (prices set 2005: Statistical Digest]. Rosstat. Moscow, 2006. 982 p. in the corresponding years).

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0.2 billion U.S. dollars), and in 2008 it was Saint Petersburg increased by 14 thousand 49.4 billion U.S. dollars (including: export – people due to positive migration balance [1, 23.7 billion U.S. dollars, import – 25.7 pp. 46-47; 4, pp. 60-634]. billion U.S. dollars). The amount of foreign At present, Saint Petersburg performs new investments in Saint Petersburg economy international and national functions; it seeks increased from 175.2 million U.S. dollars in to create a favorable business climate, and 1996 to 5927.5 million U.S. dollars (including support entrepreneurship. These factors, direct investments – 1373.7 million U.S. together with the first results of the budget dollars) in 2008 [2, p. 894; 3, p. 16; 4, pp. and administrative reforms, have a significant 949-984]. positive influence on the city’s development. A significant growth of cash income in the Since 2004, Saint Petersburg has a system of currency equivalent and the extension of the state planning. Due to certain administrative scale of lending had a great influence on the and political factors, Saint Petersburg has increase of consumer activity among Saint become the seat of the Constitutional Court Petersburg residents. In 1995, the currency of the Russian Federation; moreover, the equivalent of average per capita monetary headquarters of several leading Russian income of Saint Petersburg population was companies of national importance are also about 160 U.S. dollars per month, in 2007 – situated here. In 2006 Saint Petersburg 661.8 U.S. dollars already6. Due to the rise hosted the G8 Summit. Saint Petersburg was in the standard of living of the population, among the largest centers of international the share of foodstuffs in total household cooperation in the region. expenditures begins to decrease. In 2007 it The successful development of Saint was 24.6%. For comparison: it was 37.8% Petersburg was impeded by the global in 1990, and 59.5% in 1995. The extent financial and economic crisis which of housing construction began to exceed influenced the sixth stage of the city’s manifold the volume achieved in the last development. years of the pre-reform period. For instance, According to the results of 2009, the values 1172 thousand square meters of total area of of the main indicators of socio-economic housing was commissioned in 1985, the figure development have decreased. The volume of for 1990 was 1064 thousand square meters, for GRP decreased by 5.7%, the revenues of 1991 – 1047 thousand square meters; the total consolidated budget – by 6.8%, industrial area of housing was 2273 thousand square production – by 16.6%, investment in fixed meters in 2005, and 3212 thousand square capital – by 16.7% [5, pp. 119-191]. Saint meters in 2008. The year 2008 was a turning Petersburg is integrated considerably into point in the depopulation trend. For the first global economic relations, and it fulfills time in 17 years the resident population of national federal functions; consequently, it experienced the impact of the global financial 6 The authors’ calculations based on the data of state and economic crisis to a greater extent in statistics and the official exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia. comparison with other Russian regions.

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Since the early 2000s, Saint Petersburg 2012. By the end of 2013 the total volume has managed to create a powerful economic of industrial production has decreased basis which helped mitigate negative effects in comparison with 2012 (according to of the crisis. Swift implementation of a preliminary estimates) by 1.2%. Investments set of anti-crisis measures had certain in fixed capital declined by 13% in 2011 and positive effect. The main activities aimed by 7% in 2012 [5, pp. 139-191; 7]. at overcoming the consequences of the In the coming years Saint Petersburg is economic and financial crisis (approved by unlikely to reach the same high rates of the Government of Saint Petersburg) were economic growth, as in 2001–2008. Attention launched in April 2009. in this period should be focused on Saint Petersburg entered the seventh technological modernization, economy development stage in 2010. It is characterized restructuring and achievement of significant by the efforts to overcome the effects of the qualitative results in the city’s development. global crisis, gradual recovery of economic It is necessary to implement a long-overdue growth rates and enhancement of citizens’ transition to innovation development and to standard of living. According to the results enhance the indicators of human capital, the of 2010, industrial production grew by 9.4%, tasks that are set out regularly as development revenues of consolidated budget – by 9.9%, objectives in urban planning documents. investment in fixed capital – by 6.4% [5, pp. This periodization of Saint Petersburg’s 139-191]. The achievement of sustainable socio-economic development allows us to match development is promoted by the significant the stages of the city’s development with the potential accumulated during the period of periods of validity of corresponding planned extremely favorable external conditions for documents and with the general evolution of the city’s development. This fact made it Saint Petersburg’s planning system in the possible, in comparison with the 1990s and post-Soviet period. Did the planning have early 2000s, to make a significant step forward any impact on the development of the city or in attracting investment and in integration it was going on under the influence of more into global economy. However, due to the powerful factors? impact of global financial and economic The multidirectional plans of 1990–1994 crisis, a number of important economic can be highlighted as the first period. The first development parameters in 2009–2010 post-Soviet concept for the development of turned out much worse than in the pre-crisis Saint Petersburg dates back to the end of period of 2000–2008. the Soviet period, and it was published as Some effects of the crisis still linger. In a working document of the Committee for 2011–2013 there was a sharp slowdown in Economic Reform under the Executive the city’s development. In 2011, GRP of Committee of Lensovet in the beginning Saint Petersburg grew by 8.3%, in 2012 – by of 1991 under the title “Feasibility study only 4.3%. The index of industrial production and socio-economic substantiation of the increased by 13.3% in 2011, and by 4.1% in Leningrad free enterprise zones”. The

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document contained the analysis of the state including foreign, investment in the sectors of urban economy and alternative possibilities that were traditionally funded by the state, of its development with the assessment of to promote labor-intensive industries in the prospects for the period up to 2000. services sector. Target social programs were Three strategies of the city’s socio- to be implemented. economic development were considered as The issues of the city’s economic alternatives; they varied according to the development were considered in a number degree of integration into the external market: of independent studies. In particular, in April from an open, export-oriented strategy, to an 1991, the French bank “Lazard Frères almost closed one. The authors showed quire Banque” presented a report “The concept convincingly that it is the degree of openness for regional development of the Leningrad that is the determining factor in the formation advanced economic zone”. In November– of the sectoral structure of economy and the December 1991, the British company depth and nature of the reforms that the city “Coopers & Lybrand” and Leontief Centre requires. The document made a choice in with the participation of the Scottish Regional favor of an open strategy. This strategy opened Development Agency conducted a research up certain opportunities for some industries, resulted in the publication of “The business tourism sector, and for the development of the plan of a free enterprise zone in Saint city as a major transport center; the strategy Petersburg”. These works are interesting also facilitated the emergence of modern because they are an example of involvement trading and storage facilities, communication of Western specialists in the elaboration systems and information services, financial of the strategy for Saint Petersburg. They and advisory services, providing a basis for supplemented, developed and formulated modern economy. new ideas of the city’s development. The document became the subject of wide The implementation of strategic programs public discussions typical of that period. It developed by the city depended to a great was, in fact, a program for economic policy extent on the policy of federal authorities. of the city administration elected in 1990; it Therefore, when in 1992 market reforms in was set out in the “Program of actions of the Russia slowed down, the hopes for a swift Executive Committee of Lensovet under crisis realization of the plans, which conformed to conditions”. The document focused on the the interests of residents and city authorities, development of foreign economic relations vanished. They could not be carried out due to and private business. The dominance of the weak political influence of supporters of radical private sector, which required the launch of reforms and, consequently, due to the lack of privatization, was recognized as a necessary proper legislation and pro-inflation selective condition for successful development of the economic policy, and also due to general city’s economy. The main task was to create political instability and unpredictability of a stable and strong tax base, to attract private, central government policy on the whole.

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Another attempt to work out city The analysis of the developments that development prospects, which was were carried out in the early 1990s allows us comparable in scale and significance, was to state that Saint Petersburg authorities undertaken by the Committee on Economic understood the importance of the strategic Development under Saint Petersburg vision of the future city very well. The Mayor’s Office in 1993 and resulted in the implementation of strategic plans of the release of an extensive (400 pages) program city authorities was impeded by inefficient “Saint Petersburg–2000” for official relations with the central authorities. use only. This program was designed to The development of Saint Petersburg is provide a package of anti-crisis measures, inseparable from the whole country and outline strategic directions for the city’s it depends on the twists and turns of the development and specific tasks of city policy federal policy. The implementation of radical up to 2000. variants of rebuilding relations with the The authors focused on the active center in the framework of the strategy of economic policy carried out by the city creating a free zone turned out impossible and administration and on strong government then unnecessary. The main disadvantages regulation. Sectors such as industry, transport, of strategic developments of that period communication and information, culture, were: vagueness of the ideas about the science and education, tourism, and financial goals of the development and mechanism sector were named as the priorities for the of using the strategy in the system of city city’s development. In general, the program management, insufficient transparency for proved to be cumbersome and non-uniform. the city community, and incompleteness. Statements on liberal market contained in These shortcomings were overcome in the the preamble were not disclosed in the main next period. sections. The proposed implementation 1996–1998 can be distinguished as the mechanism turned out unworkable. Due to second period, when “The strategic plan of reorganization processes inside the Mayor’s Saint Petersburg” was developed and its Office, the work on the program remained initial implementation stage began. The unfinished. preparation of the plan became the first Leontief Centre participated in the work full-scale experience of application of a new in 1993 at the stage of elaborating the concept technology of communicative territorial for this program; the Centre released a report planning in Russia. The work was carried “Elaboration of the program for socio- out in 1996–1997 with the methodological economic development of Saint Petersburg up supervision of Leontief Centre. The emphasis to 2000”. This document set out the ideas of was placed on two aspects. liberalization of the city economy, promotion First, the abandonment of quantitative of the private sector, reduction of the sphere of specification and complexity, which are direct government intervention in economic traditional for the Soviet planning, in favor life more clearly and consistently. of concentrating on essential features

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for survival, adaptation and sustainable showed that 75% of planned measures development of the city in a competitive were being implemented successfully. market environment. The creation of the Strategic Plan was Secondly, the inclusion of stakeholders undoubtedly beneficial to the city. The into the planning process, and organization plan improved the business image of Saint of an agreement between them that concerns Petersburg, facilitated the receipt of World the future of the city in the framework Bank loans and technical assistance grants. of multilateral and constructive dialogue The plan changed management culture, between business, authorities and society. helped create a space for open discussions A special organizational structure based between the authorities and society on the on 14 thematic commissions was created for issues of strategic significance, defined the elaboration of the plan. The commissions the directions, which were followed by the consisted of the city administration officials, city administration and its main partners representatives of business, research and which were embodied in actual large- institutions and public organizations. During scale projects. Such projects include the the preparation of the Strategic Plan the construction of the ring road, development following activities were carried out: three of Big Port Saint Petersburg, reconstruction representative surveys of citizens, more than of the city’s historic center, and preparations 50 meetings, 15 public meetings of thematic for the 300th anniversary of the city and commissions and Expert Council, three city- so on. wide conferences, which were attended by The third period covering 2002–2003 was almost two thousand people. The web-site of associated with the elaboration of the Concept the project was maintained and updated. The for socio-economic development of Saint plan contained a minimum of the number of Petersburg until 2025. The preparation of quantitative landmarks – about ten integral a long-term Concept for socio-economic indicators. The plan’s validity period was not development and the new General Plan defined, since it was assumed to be updated of Saint Petersburg started simultaneously on a regular basis. 2003, the year, when Saint in 2002. The Concept was to replace the Petersburg celebrated its 300th anniversary, Strategic Plan of Saint Petersburg. The was marked as the first interim milestone. General Plan was to replace the document Strategic plan of Saint Petersburg did not of the same name adopted in 1987, which have the status of a legal act; it was adopted in concerned Leningrad and the Leningrad the form of an agreement of public consent, Oblast for the period up to 2005. For the it was signed by 144 members of the specially first time in the recent history of the city, the established General Council headed by the development of two important documents Governor of the city [8, pp. 16-18]. on socio-economic and urban planning In 2002 the results of the five years of was conducted in synchronous mode, using implementation of the Strategic Plan of coordinated methodological approaches and Saint Petersburg were summed up; they integrated information-analytical basis.

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The preparation of a draft long-term program for socio-economic development Concept was completed in the second half of Saint Petersburg for 2005–2007”, “The of 2003. By this time a long-term forecast provisional list of standards of living”, and the Main Provisions of the concept of “The goals, objectives, main activities and the General Plan of Saint Petersburg had also indicators of efficiency of performance of been ready. These documents were approved executive state authorities of Saint Petersburg by public authorities of Saint Petersburg and aimed at ensuring the regulations of the went through public consultation. Due to standards of living”. Initially, the Program several organizational reasons, the Concept for 2005–2007 was seen as a voluminous did not immediately obtain the status of a document containing a detailed analysis of legal act (it was approved by the decision the situation, results, tendencies, problems of Saint Petersburg Government in July and prospects of development, a summary 2007). Nevertheless, both the Concept and of the main goals and objectives, means to the forecast were used in the daily work of achieve them and results expected. public authorities and scientific and expert However, it turned out that such a Program community of Saint Petersburg. was extremely difficult to coordinate with all The fourth period that covered 2004–2007 the interested state authorities of Saint was marked by the formation of the system of Petersburg. As a result, it was cut down state planning of Saint Petersburg. At the end substantially, and was submitted for of 2003 it was decided to create a system of consideration and approval in the form of a state planning that would include several very short document (5 pages). It contained interconnected program-planning documents the main goal, objectives, targets and their determining the quantitative parameters of values. The implementation period of the the city’s development. In March 2004, the Program in the process of its finalizing was City Government approved “The regulations extended for one year (until 2008). on organization of activities of executive The work on modifying the system of state bodies of Saint Petersburg in the sphere of planning and on updating the long-term state planning”. The Regulations defined Concept and providing it with the status of a state planning as a set of measures for the legal act has begun in 2006. In the end, the development, adoption and implementation system of state planning has undergone of program-planned legal acts in order significant changes in the direction of to ensure sustainable socio-economic simplification and greater adaptation to development of Saint Petersburg. existing realities, which was legally established The planning system, which had been by the approval of the Concept and the new formed, turned out to be cumbersome and provisions on state planning (Resolutions internally inconsistent. Difficulties with its of Saint Petersburg Government of July 20, implementation emerged immediately after 2007 No.884 and No.885). The number its adoption. In 2004, the preparation of of constituent documents of the planning the following documents was started: “The system was reduced to five. Two of them (the

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Concept and the General Plan) are adopted The list of the documents contained for the long term, the other two (the Program neither the concept, nor the strategic plan. and the Budget Law) – for the medium term, Nevertheless, the work on updating the and one (the Annual Address of the Governor Concept continued. Since 2008 the attempts to the Legislative Assembly) – for the short were made to revise it according to the RF term. President’s instructions to all the RF subjects Even after the introduction of the above that they should have documents that adhered modifications, the planning scheme that was to the Concept for long-term development of formed in Saint Petersburg in 2004–2007 Russia till 2020 and that were calculated for bore the “birthmarks of socialism”. The the same period (up to 2020). The revised draft work on planning and reporting became Concept that had been prepared and passed in many ways an end in itself, occupying in 2009 the procedure of public discussions a substantial part of the working hours contained the necessary amendments while of officials. The validity of quantitative preserving the format and ideology of the indicators remained doubtful, forecasting was document. However, it was suspended at the reduced to extrapolation, and the connection stage of coordination due to another change between activities and objectives was far of leadership in the City Committee in charge from obvious. The planning process became of economic development. The new head more closed, a dialogue with the public was offered to introduce radical changes into the minimized. format of the Concept on the basis of Western The fifth period (2008–2012) was standards, to make the document bright, connected with the attempts to modernize the concise and focused on a small number of system of public planning. “The Program on priorities. socio-economic development of Saint The new Concept was worked out over two Petersburg for 2008–2011” was prepared in years, it was subject to a number of formal and connection with the implementation of the informal discussions and was approved by the Program on socio-economic development for City Government in March 2012. The 2005–2008; the former was approved in 2008, Concept was modified substantially in the retaining the current format. At the end of course of its elaboration, the results of Internet 2011, the set of documents on state planning polls were also taken into consideration in this was modified once again. It included: the respect. At the same time, its main parameters, forecast of socio-economic development; the such as conciseness and a limited number of program on socio-economic development; priorities, were preserved. The latter include the main directions of activity of Saint urban environment and transportation, Petersburg Government; the list of indicators education, culture, healthcare, and urban of socio-economic development of Saint land improvement. It is important that the Petersburg, which included objectives, document highlights the issues concerning indicators of tasks fulfillment, and standards the quality of living in the city, rather than its of living. economic specialization.

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The sixth period in the evolution of the state between the authorities, on the one hand, planning system in Saint Petersburg started in and business, public organizations and 2013. Its initial stage was marked by the population, on the other hand. creation of the Committee for Economic The Strategy will become the central link Policy and Strategic Planning in the structure in the system of state planning. It is proposed of Saint Petersburg state executive authorities. to include other documents, together with the In 2013 in the framework of the activities Strategy, into a package of documents on state of this Committee some proposals were planning of Saint Petersburg; they are: The prepared concerning the improvement of Main Guidelines for the Implementation the system of state planning; besides, the of the Strategy (economic policy), The project “The Strategy of Saint Petersburg: Program for Socio-Economic Development, priorities and targets for economic and social The Comprehensive Plan to Implement development up to 2030” (hereinafter – the the Program, Sectoral Concepts and state programs. Strategy) was elaborated. Scientific and The research into the specifics of educational institutions, economic entities functioning of Saint Petersburg economy associations, and public organizations of and the evolution of its state planning system Saint Petersburg took active part in public shows that external conditions have a discussions on the project. decisive influence on the results of the The Strategy contains the main city’s development. These include, first conclusions of the analysis of development of all, the state of the global and Russian of Saint Petersburg, the priority directions of economies, and the specifics of the public the city’s development, the mission, functions, socio-economic policy. These parameters vision of the future, provision with resources, determine the basic vectors of development the system of goals, and implementation of Saint Petersburg. The elaboration of urban mechanism. strategic, conceptual and other program- The main goal is the sustained improvement planning documents does not have any of the quality of life of citizens and significant impact on the development of the enhancement of global competitiveness of city so far. Saint Petersburg based on the implementation In Saint Petersburg the cycles of updating of national development priorities, provision the program-planning documents and of sustainable economic growth and use of the changing the approaches to planning are set results of innovation-technological activity. It rather from the outside and are associated is planned to give the Strategy the status of a with the changes in external conditions. The state planning document (after its approval aggravation (improvement) of the situation by Saint Petersburg Government), and also in the country’s economy or certain new to make it an agreement of public consent trends in Russia’s government policy cause (after it is signed by all the interested parties a feedback on the level of management to the corresponding agreement). Thus, this of socio-economic development of Saint document will improve mutual understanding Petersburg.

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The changes in the approaches to strategic of the economic subdivision of the planning become part of this feedback. The administration; content and basic approaches to planning in – desire to utilize budget funds, which is Saint Petersburg vary in accordance with the enhanced by advisory firms, specializing in external environment. Sharp aggravation planning services; of crisis phenomena (the beginning of the – pressure from above in the form of autumn of 1998 and 2008) is accompanied direct or indirect (seminars, methodological by the development of emergency plans and recommendations) schemes aimed at boosting programs. the city authorities activity on the development Stabilization and improvement of the of plans of certain types from the relevant situation in the Russian economy contributes ministries (the Ministry of Economic to the transition to a long-term and more Development of Russia, the Ministry of comprehensive planning. For example, the Regional Development of Russia); launch of administrative and budget reforms – information on the presence of such in Russia facilitated the works on the creation documents in competitor cities in Russia and of state planning system in Saint Petersburg abroad. in 2004. Long experience of observing the practice The global financial and economic crisis, of strategic planning in various cities leads to which brought ardent planners down to earth, the conclusion that the main value of planning was a factor that simplified the system of state lies in the openness of this process. The planning in Saint Petersburg in 2011–2012 dominance of bureaucracy, transformation and served as an incentive to make public of the plan into an end in itself, keeping participation in the development of future business and society away from the process plans more extensive. make the planning a waste of time and justify These external factors are complemented the existence of officials and their advisers. It by internal ones, among which we should is useless trying to make a comprehensive and name, first of all, political cycles and the detailed plan of city development. It is more change of heads of the city or committees important to turn strategic planning into a responsible for economic development, which public institution that will make it possible, is confirmed by the chronology of changes of through multilateral dialogue, to involve the planning documents and planning system experts and society in the planning process, to of Saint Petersburg in 1992–2011. achieve improvements in economic climate, The reasons and causes for changes in growth of cooperative capital of the city, and plans and the twists and turns of the approaches improvement of managers’ qualification. to planning in Saint Petersburg did not differ Such planning has a greater positive impact essentially from the obvious set of factors on development than the administrative stimulating administrative activities: struggle of officials for influence and finances, – ambition and will of the head of the the struggle that is interesting only to them- city, ambitions and career plans of the heads selves.

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Cited works 1. Main Indicators of Socio-Economic Situation in the Northwestern Federal District in 1985–1999. State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics. Moscow, 2001. 48 p. 2. Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. 2005: Statistical Digest. Rosstat. Moscow, 2006. 982 p. 3. The Economy of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast in 1993: Statistical Digest. Peterburgkomstat. Saint Peterburg, 1994. 174 p. 4. Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. 2009: Statistical Digest. Rosstat. Moscow, 2009. 990 p. 5. Saint Petersburg in 2012. Petrostat. Saint Petersburg, 2013. 226 p. 6. Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. 2010: Statistical Digest. Rosstat. Moscow, 2010. 996 p. 7. Saint Petersburg. Indices of Physical Volume of Gross Regional Product by Types of Economic Activity in 2005–2012. Petrostat. Available at: http://petrostat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/petrostat/resources/58cc7e804f0a 97d5bbddbb22524f7e0f/SPB12.pdf (data obrashcheniya: 17.03.2014). 8. Zhikharevich B.S., Limonov L.E. The Experience of Elaboration and Monitoring of the Strategic Plan of Saint Petersburg. Issues of Cities with Transition Economy. Moscow, 2000. Pp. 16-18.

References 1. Osnovnye pokazateli sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo polozheniya Severo-Zapadnogo federal’nogo okruga v 1985–1999 godakh [Main Indicators of Socio-Economic Situation in the Northwestern Federal District in 1985–1999]. Gosudarstvennyi komitet Rossiiskoi Federatsii po statistike [State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics]. Moscow, 2001. 48 p. 2. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2005: stat. sb. [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indica- tors. 2005: Statistical Digest]. Rosstat. Moscow, 2006. 982 p. 3. Narodnoe khozyaistvo Sankt-Peterburga i Leningradskoi oblasti v 1993 godu: stat. sb. [The Economy of Saint Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast in 1993: Statistical Digest]. Peterburgkomstat. Saint Peterburg, 1994. 174 p. 4. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2009: stat. sb. [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indica- tors. 2009: Statistical Digest]. Rosstat. Moscow, 2009. 990 p. 5. Sankt-Peterburg v 2012 godu [Saint Petersburg in 2012]. Petrostat. Saint Petersburg, 2013. 226 p. 6. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2010: stat. sb. [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indica- tors. 2010: Statistical Digest]. Rosstat. Moscow, 2010. 996 p. 7. Sankt-Peterburg. Indeksy fizicheskogo ob”ema valovogo regional’nogo produkta po vidam ekonomicheskoi deyatel’nosti v 2005–2012 gg. [Saint Petersburg. Indices of Physical Volume of Gross Regional Product by Types of Economic Activity in 2005–2012]. Petrostat. Available at: http://petrostat.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/petrostat/ resources/58cc7e804f0a97d5bbddbb22524f7e0f/SPB12.pdf (data obrashcheniya: 17.03.2014). 8. Zhikharevich B.S., Limonov L.E. Opyt razrabotki i monitoringa Strategicheskogo plana Sankt-Peterburga. Problemy gorodov perekhodnykh ekonomik [Issues of Cities with Transition Economy]. Moscow, 2000. Pp. 16-18.

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UDC 352(470.20), LBC 65042 © Didyk V.V., Ryabova L.A. Single-industry towns of the Russian Arctic: development strategy on the case study of the cities/towns in the Murmansk Oblast *

Vladimir Vsevolodovich DIDYK Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Deputy Director for Science, Head of the Sector, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola Scientific Centre of RAS (24A, Fersman Street, Apatity, 184209, Russia, [email protected])

Larisa Aleksandrovna RYABOVA Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department, Federal State- Financed Scientific Institution G.P. Luzin Institute of Economic Problems of Kola Scientific Centre of RAS (24A, Fersman Street, Apatity, 184209, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article is devoted to the problems of strategic management of single-industry towns’ development in the Russian Arctic. It presents brief characteristics of the government policies in relation to single-industry towns of the Russian Federation as a whole, and, particularly, of its Arctic zone. On the example of single-industry towns of the Murmansk Oblast it studies strategies of their development, typical problems to shape and implement strategic development plans. Key words: single-industry towns, the Russian Arctic, development problems, city-forming enterprises, strategic planning, comprehensive investment plans.

* The study was conducted in the framework of the project No. 12-32-06001 “Russian Arctic: current development paradigm”, the grant of the target-oriented contest RHSF “Russia in the Arctic: past, present, prospects”.

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Introduction stimulus for the introduction of strategic A specific feature of the Russian Arctic is planning in such cities. the presence of a large number of mono- This article gives a brief characteristic of towns – urban settlements with the dominant single-industry towns in Russia and its Arctic position of one or several technologically zone, the general state of affairs in them, related enterprises, i.e. a single-industry analyzes the state policy in relation to single- structure of the economy. industry towns in the Russian Federation Under the conditions of the market in general and especially to those that are economy and globalization, characterized by located in its Arctic regions. By example significant market fluctuations and periodic of the Murmansk Oblast single-industry crises affecting the entire industries and towns and using the case study method, countries, the risks concerning sustainable we examine development strategies of socio-economic development of single- the Arctic monotowns in the Russian industry towns are especially high. This Federation, identify and analyze the main happened in Russia during the 2008–2009 common problems in the development and global financial and economic crisis. It is implementation of strategic plans for long- the aggravation of the crisis situation in term development of single-industry towns many Russian monotowns in this period that in the Russian Arctic. attracted the attention of federal authorities Single-industry towns in Russia and its to this issue for the first time. In 2009 the Arctic zone, and the government policy in their Government of the Russian Federation has respect taken a number of measures aimed to address The criteria of single-industry settlements the socio-economic problems of single- are of key importance for Russia’s public industry towns within the framework of an policy with regard to single-industry towns, anti-crisis program: a special interagency which concerns, among other things, the commission was established; the criteria of provision of targeted financial support from monotowns were worked out; the official the government. The criteria, first adopted by list of single-industry settlements, which Russia’s Ministry of Regional Development can be provided with government support, in 2009, included the following: (1) the was made; the list of the most problematic share of people working at one backbone single-industry towns (their number was enterprise or group of enterprises linked by 27) requiring priority support measures was a single technological chain is at least 25% compiled [2, p. 13]. of economically active population; (2) the In the framework of the federal government production output of such enterprise or group measures, a decision was adopted, according of enterprises is not less than 50% in volume to which it is necessary for single-industry of shipped production of this settlement [6]. towns, applying for financial aid from the We note that according to the decision of federal budget, to work out comprehensive the Government of the Russian Federation, investment plans (CIP) for their moderni- adopted in December 2013, the authority in zation. This became a powerful external coordinating the activities for development

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of single-industry towns is vested in the half of their total number) are located in the Ministry of Economic Development of the Murmansk Oblast. Russian Federation. Currently, the Ministry Development risks typical of all single- intends to change the criteria of single- industry towns in Russia under the Arctic industry settlements that can be provided with conditions are aggravated by additional federal support. In particular, it is proposed adverse factors such as extreme climate, to retain only the criterion of employment; remoteness from economic centers, under- this will cause significant reduction in the developed transport, engineering and social number of single-industry towns included in infrastructure. These factors raise the cost the official list [1]. However, by the time of of living and expenses of local budgets, writing this article (May 2014) new criteria exacerbate social problems and constrain have not been adopted. the development of entrepreneurship and In accordance with the specified criteria, innovation [16, pp. 21-24; 3, pp. 58-59]. Russia’s Ministry of Regional Development For resource-based single-industry towns of first compiled a list of Russian single-industry the Arctic one of the main risks lies in the towns in 2009. It includes 358 settlements. possible depletion of resources, threatening The last List of July 26, 2013 comprises 342 the shutdown of the main enterprise followed settlements [13]. 18 monotowns from the by the decay of the city. List are located in Russia’s Arctic zone, a The impact of these adverse factors leads new composition of which has been recently to the tendency towards a significant popu- established by the Presidential Decree of lation decline in most of the monotowns May 2, 20141. The total number of urban of the Russian Arctic, which also indicates settlements in the Russian Arctic is 71, out of the presence of socio-economic problems. which the share of single-industry settlements Since the beginning of market reforms (from is 25.4%, while the national average indicator 1990 to 2013) the population in the cities is 14.1%2 . It means that the share of single- and towns of the Russian Arctic included industry settlements in the Russian Arctic in the 2013 List of Russia’s Single-Industry is almost twice higher than the national Towns, has declined by almost 30%, i.e. by average. This proves the urgency of the issues about 300 thousand people. Single-industry of monotowns for the macro-region of the towns in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Russian Federation [14, p. 35]. If we look and town-forming enterprises of the at the regional distribution of monotowns oil and gas industry are the only exception. in the Arctic zone of Russia, we see that High profits of oil and gas companies most of them (eight settlements, or almost provide a relatively better socio-economic situation in the regions and cities, where 1 O sukhoputnykh territoriyakh Arkticheskoi zony Rossiiskoi such enterprises are located. A more detailed Federatsii: Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 02.05.2014 № 296 [On the description of the current socio-economic Land Territories of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation: the Decree of the RF President of May 02, 2014 No. 296]. situation and, in particular, social problems Available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/20895 of the single-industry towns of the Russian 2 The number of urban settlements in Russia in 2009 was 2417 [10]. Arctic is presented in the article published

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according to the findings of the study carried In spite of a reasonable approach to the out with the participation of the authors in conditions of allocation of state support for 2013 [14]. single-industry towns providing for a necessity The financial support for the implemen- to proceed from the principles of strategic tation of investment plans that were submit- planning and management of their deve- ted on a competitive basis by applicant mono- lopment, the organization of the process and towns has been the main tool in Russia’s practical implementation of the plans in most public policy aimed to resolve the issues of cases did not ensure the implementation of single-industry towns; this tool has been these principles. applied by the Government in the framework Here we mean the following circumstan- of the anti-crisis program since 2009. ces. First, the government authorities An applicant monotown should have demanded that monotowns submitted CIPs a comprehensive investment plan (CIP) on short notice without giving them the worked out in accordance with the metho- necessary time for preparation (especially dological guidelines of the Ministry of those monotowns that were included in Regional Development of Russia, it was a the list of the 27 most problem-plagued mandatory condition for the earmarking of settlements that were to do it in only a couple targeted federal investments. CIP is a strategic of months). Obviously, it was impossible in planning document, because, in accordance such a hurry to ensure involvement of all with the guidelines, it should cover a period interested parties in the strategic planning of more than ten years and include an process and wide public participation, which in-depth analysis of the socio-economic should be an important part of strategic and financial situation in the single-industry planning. Second, Russian municipalities, town using the SWOT-analysis methodology, due to the current system of tax and budget elaboration of objectives and priorities for regulation in the country, are very limited in future development, as well as a mechanism their economic self-sufficiency. This does for their implementation. not allow them to define and implement the In 2010–2011 almost all the Arctic directions of promising development and, to monotowns in the Russian Federation a great extent, current functioning, because developed CIPs thus fulfilling one of the main more than half of their budget is often formed conditions for receiving state support to by state grants and subsidies. implement them. Russia’s federal budget Third, the methodological recommenda- allocated funds to 50 single-industry towns tions of the Ministry of Regional Develop- in 2010–2011 (to 35 towns in 2010 and to 15 ment of Russia on the elaboration of the towns in 2011); however, only three of the comprehensive investment plan of a single- Arctic single-industry settlements actually industry town applied an excessively theo- received support: the town of Kovdor, urban- rized approach (especially in the calculation type settlement of Revda in the Murmansk of the balance of cash flows and capital of Oblast and the city of in the monotowns) that did not fully take into [14]. account the real situation on the ground.

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This led to technical difficulties in the been useful for many single-industry towns. preparation of CIPs due to the absence of It made it possible to analyze the potential the necessary information base at the development of single-industry towns, to municipal level and practice of such calcu- identify priorities for further development, lations. and to evaluate the need for resources for the Consequently, fewer opportunities implementation of projected plans. remained for the implementation of other The strategy for development of single- major components of strategic planning – the industry towns in the Murmansk Oblast: the coordination of the positions of interested content and implementation issues parties, public discussion, etc. The Murmansk Oblast has the largest As a result, an essentially positive process number of single-industry towns in the of implementation of strategic planning in Russian Arctic – eight out of the eighteen the Russian monotowns initiated “from included in the official List (tab. 1). above” in the framework of public policy In 2009 two monotowns of the region, to support them, became largely formal. In Kovdor and Revda, were included in the list most cases the process was focused more of 27 Russian single-industry towns that have on the preparation of the document and the most difficult socio-economic situation. its submission in time, and less – on the These settlements were the first ones, elaboration of a substantial development for which the comprehensive investment strategy. In addition, single-industry towns plans were elaborated and submitted to the and regional authorities often turn the process interdepartmental commission for single- of drafting of CIPs into a kind of “hunting” industry towns under the Government of the for federal budget funding. However, the Russian Federation. The Murmansk Oblast first experience of strategic planning has Ministry of Economic Development provided

Table 1. Single-industry towns in the Murmansk Oblast (extract from the List approved by the Order of Ministry of Regional Development of Russia dated July 26, 2013 No. 312) Population No Town Backbone enterprise (as of January 01, 2013) 1. Kirovsk 30484 OJSC Apatit 2. Kovdor 20515 JSC Kovdorsky GOK (Kovdor Mining and Processing Works) 3. Monchegorsk 47357 OJSC Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company 4. Polyarnye Zori 17506 Branch of Rosenergoatom Concern OJSC Kola Power Plant 5. urban-type settlement 681 Serebryanskiy HPPs cascade of the branch Kolsky, JSC TGC-1 Tumanny 6. urban-type settlement 15800 Structural units of OJSC Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company Zapolyarny 7. urban-type settlement Revda 8101 JSC Lovozersky GOK (Lovozersk Integrated Mining and Processing Plant) 8. urban-type settlement Nikel 12750 OJSC Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company

Source: Official website of the Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation. Available at: http://www.minregion.ru/upload/ documents/2013/08/160813-p-m-1.pdf

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considerable support to the municipalities Despite the fact that the recommendations in the preparation of these documents are theoretically correct, their practical with the involvement of research associates application has proved very problematic for from the Institute of Economic Problems, municipalities. This was mainly because the Kola Science Center of RAS (Apatity). recommendations gave too much attention Comprehensive investment plans of the to the analysis of financial flows in the single-industry towns Kovdor and Revda diagnostic part of the CIP. successfully passed the competitive selection In particular, they stipulated the necessity that allowed them to receive financial to calculate the balance of payments for each support from the federal budget for the of the seven groups of counterparties of the implementation of the plans3. In 2010–2011 monotown (backbone enterprise, population, the rest of the towns in the Murmansk Oblast local government and others), to estimate the also prepared their own comprehensive dynamics of the capital of the monotown, investment plans and submitted them to the and combine the results of these calculations. commission under the RF Government. In addition to the technical complexity of However, none of them was supported at the the recommended methodology of analysis, federal level. the practical advantage of its results is The content of the strategies for questionable, since the reliable initial data development of single-industry towns in the for such calculations are virtually unavailable Murmansk Oblast, set out in CIPs, was to municipalities. The comprehensive formed under the influence of the requirements investment plans developed by the single- of the “Methodological recommendations industry towns in the Murmansk Oblast on the preparation and implementation of used the recommendations on the analysis comprehensive investment plans for the of financial flows in a simplified form; development of single-industry settlements” nevertheless, they executed the sections of goal of Russia’s Ministry of Regional Development setting and planning for their implementation [9]. They envisaged the necessity to develop at a rather high level. the entire range of elements of a strategic The analysis of the strategies for the document, including in-depth analysis development of single-industry towns in the of the socio-economic situation; risk Murmansk Oblast, as set out in their CIPs, analysis; development scenarios; a system showed that, despite their diversity due to of objectives with indicators, timeframes peculiarities of each town, they have several for their achievement and decomposition common and typical features. into sub-goals; a complex of measures First, it is their focus on reducing the risks (projects) and also a system of managing of dependence on economic activities of the the implementation of the comprehensive backbone enterprises through diversification investment plans. of the town’s economy. The most common way to diversify the monotowns in the Murmansk 3 Federal funds were allocated, as a rule, to the objects of engineering infrastructure contained in CIPs. Available at: Oblast is to develop small and medium http://asninfo.ru/se/article/37759 businesses, especially in the tourism sphere.

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Second, it is the presence of modernization results are planned to be achieved through the and the diversification of the activities of the development of small and medium business city-forming enterprise itself. In most cases, primarily in the tourism sector [8, p. 43]. CIPs contained the projects for reconstruction The Murmansk Oblast organized the work and modernization of production facilities on the regional level with the monotowns that planned by the backbone enterprises did not receive support from the federal themselves for the purpose of enhancing their budget. The working group on modernization productivity, reducing costs and developing of single-industry settlements was created new technologies and products. In some under the Murmansk Oblast government to cases, backbone enterprises initiated the coordinate the implementation of CIPs of projects aimed not only to diversify their major single-industry towns within the opportunities production, but also to develop new activities, available at the regional level. They include thus contributing to the diversification of the the funding of investment projects on a towns’ economies. competitive basis, promotion of small and Third, all the plans stipulated the medium business in single-industry towns improvement of the urban environment, and other measures within the framework development of social, engineering and of existing regional programs. However, the transport infrastructure, enhancement of the influence of the regional government on the standard of living and quality of life of the implementation of CIPs in single-industry local population. towns is very limited. This is caused mainly However, most of the comprehensive by the fact that the need for funding in the investment plans of single-industry towns in implementation of the measures set out in the Murmansk Oblast for the period up to CIPs, as a rule, exceeds to a great extent the 2020 retain the dominant role of backbone capacity of the regional budget. enterprises in the economies of monotowns. Table 2 provides the data on the volume Of all the cities and towns in the oblast, only and structure of investment sources that were the town of Revda, one of the three single- planned in the CIPs of the four single- industry towns in the Russian Arctic, which industry towns of the Murmansk Oblast. received federal financial support, focuses its As we can see from the above data, the development strategy on the diversification volume of planned investments for these of production in the foreseeable future. single-industry towns ranged from 1.6 billion The development strategy of the town of rubles (for Revda) to 37.7 billion rubles (for Revda stipulates that by 2020 the share of Monchegorsk). At that, the share of planned people employed at the backbone enterprise funding for this purpose from the regional (Lovozersky GOK) in the total number of budget did not exceed 8.6%, and that from working-age population of the town will have the municipal budget – 1.6% (for Kirovsk) decreased to 9% (from 13.9% in 2009), while of the volume required. On this basis, the the share of shipped products of the backbone investment strategies of the Murmansk enterprise in the city-wide volume will have Oblast monotowns were focused mainly decreased to 40% (from 60.2% in 2009). Such on attracting extra-budgetary sources (own

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Table 2. Planned size and structure of financing sources for Comprehensive Investment Plans of the single-industry towns in the Murmansk Oblast Kovdor Revda Monchegorsk Kirovsk Planned sources Share, Share, Share, Share, Sum, Sum, Sum, Sum, of investment % to % to % to % to million rub. million rub. million rub. million rub. the total the total the total the total Federal budget funds 6721.9 56.5 242.5 14.6 3765.4 10.0 2325.8 34.4 Regional budget 361.6 3.0 136.2 8.2 858.9 2.3 578.5 8.6 Municipal budget 45.3 0.4 25.2 1.5 166.4 0.4 107.9 1.6 Own funds of organizations, 4761.8 40.0 1254.0 75.6 32962.1 87.3 3752.8 55.4 loans and other sources Total 11 890 100 1658.3 100 37752.8 100 6765.7 100

Source: comprehensive investment plans for single-industry towns available at the official website of the Ministry of Economic Develop- ment of the Murmansk Oblast. Available at: http://minec.gov-murman.ru/content/devel_city/sub06/sub04/ funds of organizations and bank loans). Their When comparing the data in tables 3 and share ranges from 40% in Kovdor to 87.3% 2, we notice that for Kovdor the amount of in Monchegorsk. The monotowns pinned funding required for the implementation of great hopes on financing from the federal its CMP and subject to be received from the budget. The share of funding from this source federal budget (tab. 2) is almost an order of ranged from 10% (Monchegorsk) to 56.5% magnitude lower than the amount that was (Kovdor). As noted above, it was only Kovdor actually allocated (tab. 3), as for the single- and Revda that received funding from the industry town of Revda, these sums of money federal budget to implement their CIPs. are comparable. But given the fact that the Case 1. Kovdor and Revda: federal support amount of requested funding from the federal have been obtained, but their own efforts are budget in the initial drafts of CIP for Revda, also necessary as in the case of Kovdor, was significantly After a positive decision had been made higher than the amount that was subsequently concerning the provision of single-industry allocated, we can say that public funding, as towns Kovdor and Revda with federal support a rule, does not satisfy the needs of single- for the implementation of CIPs, the regional industry towns in implementing their plans Ggvernment developed and adopted long- to the full. term target programs (LTTP) for development While drafting the development strategies of these monotowns4 in 2010. They identify the and CIP, Kovdor was in a less difficult activities and resources for the implementation situation as compared to Revda, whose of the programs for development of these backbone enterprise Lovozersky GOK LLC single-industry towns, taking into account all is engaged in mining and processing of ores the sources of funding (tab. 3). of rare metals. Because of the problems in the distribution 4 During the elaboration of the LTTP, the regional government made adjustments to the CIP concerning the scope of their products and problems in management of the projects and their funding. due to the change of ownership, the company

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Table 3. Volume and structure of funding sources of the Murmansk Oblast long-term target programs for the development of single-industry towns Revda and Kovdor Kovdor Revda Funding sources In million rub. In million rub. In % to the total In % to the total Federal budget 541.92 205.05 13.0 10.6 Oblast budget 40.16 95.68 6.1 0.8 Municipal budget 10.43 16.79 1.1 0.2 Own funds of organizations 3392.74 1255.08 79.8 66.1 Bank loans 1150.00 - - 22.4 Total: 5135.25 1571.90 100 100

Sources: Postanovleniya Pravitel’stva Murmanskoi oblasti “Ob utverzhdenii dolgosrochnoi tselevoi programmy “Razvitie monoprofil’nogo gorodskogo poseleniya Revda Lovozerskogo raiona Murmanskoi oblasti” na 2010–2015 gody”ot 10.11.2010 №508-PP [Resolution of the Government of the Murmansk Oblast “On the Approval of the Long-Term Target Program “Development of Single-Industry Urban Settlement Revda of Lovozersky District of the Murmansk Oblast” for 2010–2015” of November 10, 2010 No. 508-PP]; “Ob utverzhdenii dolgosrochnoi tselevoi programmy “Razvitie monoprofil’nogo goroda Kovdora gorodskogo okruga Kovdorskii Murmanskoi oblasti” na 2010–2015 gody” (v redaktsii Postanovleniya Pravitel’stva Murmanskoi oblasti o vnesenii izmenenii №506-PP ot 4 oktyabrya 2011 g.) ot 10.11.2010 №509-PP [“On the Approval of the Long-Term Target Program “Development of Single-Industry Town Kovdor of Kovdorsky Urban District of the Murmansk Oblast for 2010–2015” (as Amended by the Resolution of the Government of the Murmansk Oblast on the Introduction of Amendments No. 506-PP of October 4, 2011) of November 10, 2010 No. 509-PP]. found itself in a crisis economic position, Currently the long-term target programs which had a negative impact on the socio- and CIPs of single-industry towns Revda and economic situation in the city. As for Kovdor, Kovdor are being implemented. Kovdor is one of its two companies that used to more successful in the implementation of be its backbone enterprises, namely JSC the long-term target programs. For example, Kovdorsluda, was in a deep crisis situation, a section of the main water conduit with a while another company, JSC Kovdorsky length of 3950 m has been built, and sewage GOK, which was generally successful, treatment facilities have been replaced and experienced temporary difficulties due to the reconstructed [11]. impact of the global financial and economic In 2012 in the framework of CIP, Revda crisis. developed design specifications and estimates Development strategies of these two on the objects of city infrastructure, and single-industry towns and, accordingly, prepared tender documentation for projects the events set out in their CIPs included of the tourist complex “Russian Lapland”, diversification of their economy and the which envisages the construction of seven activities of their backbone enterprises. Along tourist objects (“the Sami ”, alpine ski with that, the list of investment projects complex “Alluaiv” and others) and creation scheduled for implementation on the territory of 362 new jobs. of these single-industry towns included the However, in spite of the strong in- construction and reconstruction of urban formational support of this competition utility infrastructure. This part stipulated the in local and regional media, it was not held allocation of funds of the federal co-financing due to the lack of applications from inves- of investments. tors [12].

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In addition to the objective difficulties The set of targets in the CIP of Mon- that caused a breakdown of the number of chegorsk comprises the main goal and three scheduled program activities and CIPs in subgoals. The main goal is “stable socio- Revda, there were also certain shortcomings economic development of the territory, in the implementation of the comprehensive provision of employment and enhancement investment plan at the city level. As a result, of the standards of living” [7]. the Ministry of Economic Development The subgoals include: (1) reduction of of the Murmansk Oblast petitioned for dependence of the city on its backbone the redirection of part of the federal funds enterprise; (2) improvement of the quality of allocated to the single-industry town Revda life and comfort of the urban environment; (118.1 million rubles) to the creation of the (3) modernization of the activities of the industrial Park in Monchegorsk [12], but the city-forming enterprise. The main target decision has not been made so far. indicators provided by the CIP, as well as the Case 2. Monchegorsk: no federal support, progress of their implementation, according the implementation of the plans requires to the town’s Administration, are presented investment in table 4. Monchegorsk is the largest monotown in As we can see from table 3, the target the Murmansk Oblast in terms of population. indicators of the CIP of Monchegorsk Its backbone enterprise is OJSC Kola Mining include the promotion of production and Metallurgical Company, which is part of diversification through the development the holding group of MMC Norilsk Nickel. of small and medium enterpreneurship. This company is backbone for another two Already by 2012 it was planned to reduce the monotowns of the Murmansk Oblast – share of people employed at the backbone urban settlements Zapolyarny and Nikel in enterprise below the level, according to Pechengsky District. which a settlement is classified as monotown The “Comprehensive investment plan for (25%), but the information about the the modernization of single-industry town actual implementation of this plan is not Monchegorsk in the Murmansk Oblast” is available yet. At the same time, according the main document that defines the long- to the criterion “shipment of products”, it term development strategy of Monchegorsk is assumed that the role of Kola Mining and [7]. Its first draft was developed and approved Metallurgical Company as the backbone in 2010. The comprehensive investment plan enterprise will remain virtually unchanged: was developed by the town’s Administration the corresponding proportion was 96.7% in with the participation of the autonomous 2010; and according to the forecast in the CIP nonprofit organization “Kola Academic by 2020, it will decline by only 1.6 percentage University” (Apatity). Subsequently, the points (to 95.1%)5. document was updated twice, and its new 5 These figures are taken from the latest edition of the versions were approved in 2011 and 2013, CIP adopted in 2013 [13]. In previous versions, including which indicates the interest of the city that available on the website of the Ministry of Economic Administration in the implementation of the Development of the Murmansk Oblast, the share of shipped products for the backbone enterprise were, obviously, planned development strategy. calculated incorrectly (around 50%).

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Table 4. Target indicators of the comprehensive investment plan for the modernization of single-industry town Monchegorsk Report Forecast Indicator 2011 2012 2009 2015 2020 plan fact plan fact Share of people employed at the backbone enterprise in 25.4 25.2 н/д 24.8 н/д 19.5 17.5 the number of able-bodied population, % Share of people employed at small and medium enter- 4.2* 17.1 9.9 18.8 8.5 19.4 20.2 prises in the number of able-bodied population, % Level of registered unemployment, % 4.8 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.1 Average monthly wages of employees, rub. 26 133 31 607 32 623 36 212 36 664 46 018 66 140 Number of small and medium enterprises, units 368 405 406 418 414 420 450

* Share of people employed at small enterprises (excluding medium enterprises).

The indicator “proportion of employees However, despite the fact that the Mur- at small and medium enterprises” is not only mansk Oblast Government is promoting this far behind the planned values, but it even project, so far its implementation is still at the decreased in 2012 compared to 2011. This design stage, and the requests for support suggests that the strategic objective to develop from the federal budget were not supported. economic diversity in the town through Kola MMC, one of the project initiators, the development of small and medium is not offering an adequate assistance in its enterpeneurship is not implemented. implementaiton. The comprehensive investment plan of In general, though the quality of the CIP Monchegorsk has the following “anchor” as a strategic planning document is rather projects: the creation of an industrial park, high, its implementation is going on slowly. construction of a plant for the production The main reasons are the lack of adequate of grinding balls, establishment of a tourist financial support of the planned projects industry complex. from the government (federal and oblast) The initiators of the project for creation and private actors (primarily OJSC Kola of an industrial park in Monchegorsk were MMC). OJSC Kola Mining and Metallurgical This situation has led to a “cool” attitude Company and the town’s Administration. of the town administration to the formation It is planned that this project will bring of the originally planned institutional the greatest positive multiplier effect in mechanism for the implementation of the comparison with other projects of the CIP. CIP: the council on its implementation was The industrial park project provides for the not established, neither were other bodies of creation of a multifunctional industrial site organizational structure of management and to accommodate 20–30 small and medium monitoring of the plans. enterprises on the basis of engineering Case 3. Kirovsk: investment support is and technological objects not used by the provided by the regional government and the backbone enterprise. backbone enterprise

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The town of Kirovsk is the second largest Kanatnaya Doroga (Aerial Cableway), which town in the Murmansk Oblast in terms of its constructing a modern ski-lift near Kirovsk population. It was founded in the early 1930s, with a total investment of 406 million rubles during the period of Soviet industrialization, and a completion date being 20156. Thus, the due to the development of apatite-nepheline backbone industrial enterprise is becoming ores in the Khibiny massif. The extraction one of the engines of diversification of the and primary processing of the ore was carried town’s economy [15, p. 104]. out by the state enterprise Apatit (now OJSC However, along with achieved success, Apatit, a part of PhosAgro Group) which Kirovsk is facing new problems related to became the backbone enterprise for the then the implementation of a program of major rapidly growing town and its surrounding changes in the internal organizational struc- settlements. ture of OJSC Apatit that was launched in A comprehensive investment plan for the April 2013. The reorganization involves modernization of Kirovsk was developed in the dismissal of 2420 employees of the 2010 among the first in the Murmansk Oblast, enterprise7. Taking this into consideration, in and submitted to the Ministry of Regional 2013 the Working Group on modernization Development of Russia. Federal support of single-industry towns under the Federal for its implementation was not received. Government Commission on Economic Development of the tourism industry was Development and Integration included considered the main strategic direction Kirovsk into the new List of single-industry of diversification of Kirovsk economy towns of the Russian Federation that have because the town has good opportunities for the most difficult socio-economic situation8. development of tourism, primarily, winter These examples show that problems exist sports. Kirovsk has been famous throughout and they can occur in every single-industry the country for its ski resorts since Soviet settlement of the Murmansk Oblast, including times. If they are upgraded, if the town those where the backbone enterprises are develops modern infrastructure and new types quite successful at present. This confirms of tourism, including year-round tourism, it the high relevance of the strategic approach will be a strong impetus for sustainable socio- to the management of the development economic development of the town. These of such towns. Strategic management directions of diversification form the basis for envisages flexible response to the changes in its development strategy and for the CIP of 6 The list of investment projects planned for modernization of this single-industry town. implementation in single-industry municipalities in the To date, despite the lack of federal Murmansk Oblast. Available at: http://minec.gov-murman. ru/opencms/export/sites/mineconomy/content/devel_city/ support, certain progress has been made in sub06/6/1.pdf the implementation of some of the planned 7 Information about socio-economic status of single-in- dustry territorial formations of the Murmansk Oblast (Kirovsk). projects. For example, the Murmansk Available at: http://minec.gov-murman.ru/content/devel_city/ Oblast Government and the city-forming sub06/sub03/ 8 Offi cial website of the Ministry of Regional Development enterprise OJSC Apatit participated as of Russia. Available at: http://www.minregion.ru/uploads/ co-founders in the establishment of JSC attachment/documents/100913/100913_p_1.pdf

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environmental factors; it helps to find timely in the Russian Arctic was initiated in 2009 by responses to new challenges and threats to the federal authorities, i.e. the approach their development. “from above” was applied. The fact that the At the same time, practical implementation Federal Government turned its attention to of strategic management in single-industry the problems of single-industry towns is very towns of the Russian Arctic requires certain positive. However, the haste, with which the economic and institutional conditions, development of strategic planning documents which at present are, in most cases, poorly of single-industry towns (comprehensive developed in Russia in general and in its Arctic investment plans – CIPs) was organized, zone in particular. Institutional problems and the flaws in the methodological in the implementation of the strategies recommendations of Russia’s Ministry are associated with underdevelopment of of Regional Development related to their formal and informal institutions necessary elaboration in many cases did not contribute for successful strategic management. The to the drafting of high quality strategies. underdevelopment of formal institutions 2. Although there is no doubt that cer- is manifested in the weakness of legal and tain benefit was obtained in the process of methodological support to this process. For developing strategic documents of single- example, the draft Federal Law “On the industry towns (their development poten- state strategic planning”, the discussion of tial was analyzed, priorities of their deve- which has been going on for several years, lopment were defined, need for resources to has not been adopted so far (in November implement the plans was estimated), their 2012 it was reviewed by the State Duma in implementation is still hampered by a number the first reading). Informal institutions are of problems of economic and institutional underdeveloped, particularly with regard nature. to the availability of necessary cooperation 3. Economic problems in the imple- networks of municipal, public and business mentation of strategies for single-industry structures. In addition to institutional factors, towns in the Russian Arctic are connected, the level of human development (knowledge first, with insufficient provision of muni- and experience of interested parties involved cipalities with resources (mainly financial), in the drafting and implementation of which hampers the realization of their strategies) is also crucially important; development prospects; and second, with however, it is usually not high enough [see, insufficient participation of the government e.g., 4, 5]. authorities (even in the cases when state Conclusions support is provided) and backbone enterprises Analysis of strategic planning in single- in the implementation of the strategic plans industry towns of the Russian Arctic of monotowns. exemplified in the case of the Murmansk 4. Institutional problems in the imple- Oblast allows us to formulate the following mentation of the strategies are connected conclusions. with the underdevelopment of both formal 1. The process of elaborating the strategies and informal institutions necessary for for the development of single-industry towns successful strategic management.

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The underdevelopment of formal OJSC Apatit that develops the ski resort in institutions is manifested in a poor legal and Kirovsk). The third objective is to increase methodological support of this process. the comfort of the urban environment, the Informal institutions (networks of cooperation development of social, engineering and between municipal, state and business transport infrastructure in the town, and to structures) are not developed enough. In improve the standard of living and quality of addition, the level of human development life of the local population. (knowledge and experience of the parties 6. Despite the fact that the Murmansk involved in the formation and implementation Oblast monotowns are strategically focused of strategies) is crucially important, but, as a on diversification, their CIPs, except for rule, it is not high enough. Revda, for the period up to 2020 forecast that 5. The analysis of the strategies for the single-industry nature of the economy the development of single-industry towns in will be preserved. A sufficient resource base, the Murmansk Oblast, outlined in their relatively stable economic situation of the comprehensive investment plans, shows that majority of backbone enterprises and the slow the following objectives are typical for them. processes of diversification suggest that such The first objective is the reduction of the forecasts are in many respects justified. At risks of the town’s economic dependence the same time, if the goals are implemented on its backbone enterprise by diversifying consistently, the degree of diversification the town’s economy. The most common of the towns’ economy in the future can be direction of the diversification of monotowns significantly enhanced, and the risks of their is the development of small and medium development, associated with single-industry business, especially in tourism. The second nature of their economies, can be reduced. objective is modernization and diversification In conclusion, it should be noted that of the activities of the backbone enterprise. successful implementation of strategies for In most cases, CIPs include the projects the development of single-industry towns in for reconstruction and modernization of the Russian Arctic, their sustainable socio- production capacities of backbone enterprises economic development requires, along with aimed to enhance their productivity, reduce the need to overcome the above problems, costs, develop new technologies and the ability of local governments to unite the products. Sometimes backbone enterprises urban community, to coordinate and mobilize also initiate the projects for the development the efforts of the representatives of the town’s of new activities, thus helping to diversify main social groups for achieving the jointly the economies of towns (as in the case of developed goals.

Cited works

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Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 99 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

Editorial note. This and subsequent sections continue the series of articles, devoted to the role of sociological knowledge and its practical use in the development of the Russian society, associated with the all-Russian research-to-practice conference “Society and sociology in modern Russia”, scheduled for November 2014, Vologda.

UDC 332.14:336.13, LBC 65.9 © Tatarkin D.A., Sidorova E.N. Assessment of the impact of the social reproduction process on economic development of the region (case study of the Sverdlovsk Oblast) *

Denis Aleksandrovich TATARKIN Ph.D. in Economics, Research Associate, Head of the Finance Sector, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (29, Moskovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, 620014, Russia, [email protected])

Elena Nikolaevna SIDOROVA Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Senior Research Associate, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (29, Moskovskaya Street, Ekaterinburg, 620014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. When a human person is perceived not only as a key factor in social development, but also as its objective, there appears the understanding that the qualitative shifts in the reproductive process, most valuable for the society, occur not in the material sphere, but in the sphere associated with the development of a person and satisfaction of his/her needs. This fundamental postulate helps to prioritize the goals of

* This article was prepared with funding from the grant of the Russian Foundation for Humanities, project no. 1202 00266а “Management of financial resources in the system ensuring socio-economic attractiveness of the territories”.

100 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT D.A. Tatarkin, E.N. Sidorova

economic development. Economic growth without social reproduction defeats the purpose of economic development, as economic growth, which does not enhance the level and quality of life, contradicts its primary purpose. Financing of social reproduction of the population is not forced diversion of financial resources from the production process, but social investment that improves the quality of life and attracts skilled workforce to the region. The rise in salary of the economically active population has a positive effect on the formation of a profitable part of the budget, which is a prerequisite for its economic and social development on a more innovative base. It is of fundamental importance to identify the optimal ratio of financial resources allocated to social and production spheres. Social development in the Russian Federation is partly caused by the inability to assess financial implications of the increasing social sector. This occurs, in particular, due to the difficulty to measure socio-economic efficiency of investments. The impact on all sectors of production and social spheres is taken into account. The social sphere is embedded in the economic system of the country. Its development, like the development of any other manufacturing industry, directly affects the economy of the country and its regions. The methodology of the system of national accounts (SNA) provides an opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of social budget expenditures on the regional economy. On the basis of SNA tools the financial maintenance of social processes can be considered from different sides: from the perspective of revenue dynamics and patterns of goods and services consumption, including social; from the perspective of the influence of social processes on the economic development of the region; from the perspective of the efficiency of socially oriented budget expenditures. The authors have studied the effect of social expenditures on GRP of the Sverdlovsk Oblast on the basis of the 2011 data. Budget expenditures include financing of budgetary institutions of the social sphere from federal, regional and local budgets. The research has revealed that in the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011 one ruble of social budget expenditures from all sources (federal, regional and municipal) was equal to 65 kopecks of GRP. Thus, the study has clearly showed that budget expenditures on social services have not only a social, but also significant economic impact on the region’s development. Key words: Social reproduction, social impact, multiplier economic effect, system of national accounts, revenue, social budget expenditure, gross regional product.

The upgrade of the Russian economy and Nowadays society begins to consider that its integration into the world economy have the main wealth of any country is its human determined the need to revise the approach potential. It recognizes that the most to the selection of new factors of progressive important valuable qualitative shifts in development. Building an effective model of the reproductive process of leading world economic development should be based on economies do not occur in the material the global trends to form sustainable socially- sphere but in the sphere associated with the oriented self-developing territorial systems development of human and his/her needs. which provide conditions for social stability This statement is reflected in the concept and economic welfare of the population. “social orientation of the economy in the

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region” and development of the mechanism lity and growing budget deficit in many of financial support for human potential developed countries, the evaluation of the development. effectiveness of social budget expenditures However, due to the complexity of the is very important. issues, there are unsolved questions, such The financial support of the social rep- as interaction between financial development roduction system is a set of financial flows of and efficiency of the social reproduction the territory associated with the formation process. The costs on social deve-lopment of the population income, consumption of of the territories are often viewed as a forced social services by the population, financing diversion of financial resources from the of recurrent and investment expenditures production sphere. It is not surprising that in the social sphere of budgetary and extra- in the conditions of economic instabi- budgetary sources (fig. 1).

Figure 1. Factors promoting financial provision of social reproduction of territories

EXTERNAL FACTORS

Budgetary and Level extra-budgetary System of the budget sources to finance Fiscal policy of inter-budgetary dotation the social sector relations in the region at the federal level

Social reproduction as a basis for socio-economic attractiveness of the territory

Sources and the share Current consumer Structure and level Revenue base of financing of the social and investment of income of the of the territory sphere at the territorial level expenditures population

INTERNAL FACTORS

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Improved life quality and positive pro- They are the following: minimum wages, cesses in the social sphere attract highly minimum pensions, regulations of budget skilled workforce to the region. The inflow spent on health, nutritional standards, norms of economically active population and the and requirements of preferential provision increase in wages have a positive effect on with medicines, standards of the total floor the formation of a profitable part of the area of the accommodation, etc. The private budget, which is a necessary condition for institutions offer additional services on a fee economic development on a more modern basis. and innovative basis. Despite positive changes in the financing The integral elements of the social of the social sphere, today Russia lags behind reproduction process are consumption of Western countries and, as a consequence, has social goods and services and financial a non-competitive level of social reproduc- assurance of the social sector, including tion of the population. education, health, culture, environment and The estimate of social development of the public utilities. Russian Federation, in comparison with de- The important characteristic of the social veloped countries, has revealed its significant reproduction process is the level of con- gap. Russia ranks last by the level of consump- sumptive use of goods and services by the tion of social services, even lagging behind population, including social, and the level of former Soviet republics. gross fixed capital. At the same time, the state costs on social The structure of these indicators distri- services provision are quite high – 17% of bution reveals the development strategy, GDP. implemented in the country: Russia ranks second last by the develop- 1) either human-oriented, boosting ment of the sphere of paid social services – domestic consumption of goods and ser- 3.3% of GDP, only ahead of the Republic of vices; Belarus (2.7% of GDP). By this indicator we 2) or oriented to production develop- lag behind Western countries by 2–3 times ment, investment growth at the expense of or more: Japan – 6.9% of GDP, Germany – high savings rates. Moreover, the fundamental 7.4%, Canada – 7.6%, USA – 20.7% [6, p. 128; point is a ratio of the roles of state and private 7, p. 256; 9; 10]. business in the social services provision. To assess the situation we consider an Currently, the Russian social sphere is indicator such as a share of social expenses being mainly developed on the state basis. in the total budget expenditures. In Russia it Howe-ver, the business sector begins to play amounts to 60%. The significant part of the an increasingly prominent role in social budget funds to finance social expenditures policy. The two-tier system of production is allocated by the EU. In 25 countries the and distribution of social services is being share of social expenses in the total budget formed. The state guarantees minimum social expenditures has recently amounted to more standards according to a certain situation. than 70%.

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Taking into account the extremely low What is more, the social sphere is level of GDP per capita, the lowest social embedded in the economic system of the indicators in GDP and their poor dynamics, country where people work, wages are paid, it is possible to draw a conclusion about the profit is made, investments are carried out lack of the clearly defined socially-oriented and taxes are levied. Its development, like economic policy in this country. Increased the development of any other manufacturing opportunities in social reproduction of the industry, affects the economy of the country population and rapprochement with deve- and regions directly. loped countries require a significant increase The methodology of the system of national in the pace of social development. accounts (SNA) helps to carry out a compre- One of the factors contributing to the lag hensive assessment of the influence of social in social development of the country is the budget expenditures on the economy of inability to assess financial implications of the territory. The use of the SNA tools increased amounts of the social sector. It is provides an opportunity to consider the caused by the complexity to measure socio- financial maintenance of social processes economic efficiency of current spending from different perspectives: on the basis of and investment in the industry with regard incomes dynamics and patterns of goods to the conjugated effects in all sectors of and services consumption, including social; production and social sphere. The complexity from the perspective of the influence of and diversity of this category perception social processes on the regional economic predetermine the lack of consensus on the development; with respect to the efficiency nature and efficiency measures. of socially oriented budget expenditures. The functioning of social sphere has a Budget costs have two main forms of the double effect: on the one hand, it is connec- impact on regional economy and create a ted with the fulfillment of social functions; multiplier effect in the formation of GRP: on the other hand, it is a factor of economic 1) they participate in the generation of growth. The social effect is to meet the the population’s income (of the public sector needs of society in the most important social employees) through the payment of wages services – education, health, culture, etc. The and social benefits, which are then consumed economic effect is manifested in increased by households for final consumption and gross domestic product and in the change savings; of crucial economic indicators. The social 2) budget financing provides the demand sphere as a basis for social reproduction of for work and services in some sectors of the human potential provides reproduction of economy. By undertaking the maintenance qualified labor force, health maintenance of and development of the property complex, the population, increase in the intellectual authorities increase demand and, therefore, potential of the society, thereby having launch a number of industries, primarily a qualitative impact on socio-economic housing and utilities, construction and some development of the society. others.

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The authors have calculated the effect of The most significant items of expenditure social expenditures on GRP of the Sverdlovsk are the following: salaries and charge on Oblast on the basis of the 2011 data. The payroll amounted to 110.7 billion rubles (43% budget expenditures include the financing of the total budget); the increase in the fixed of budgetary institutions of the social sphere assets value – 29.5 billion rubles (12%); social from federal, regional and local budgets. assistance allowance – 24.3 billion rubles In Stage I of the study, we, using the (9%); the maintenance of property – 19 functional classification of budget expen- billion rubles (7%). ditures, single out the articles aimed to fulfil However, the closer study of individual social functions of the state. budget expenses reveals a significant change They include education, culture, health, in the structure. For example, the prevai- social policy and sport. Then the relevant ling costs on wages remained in education articles of the functional classification of (63.2%), culture (53.2%) and health (44.9%), expenditures are further divided according while the share of costs in social policy, to the classification of the operations in the physical culture and sport was 12.4 and public sector. 12.2%, respectively. Major funds in social In the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011 the policy were allocated to social service benefits expenditures of budgets of all levels region (67.8%), in physical culture and sport – to totaled 257.4 billion rubles, including 67.5 the increase in the value of fixed assets (49%) billion allocated from the federal budget. [3; 4]. It should be noted that in this research the The analysis shows that the structure of federal budget expenditures include the budget expenditures in accordance with the costs for maintenance and operations of government operations varies greatly depen- institutions under the jurisdiction of the ding on the sphere where these funds are federal government that operate in the region. allocated. Consequently, it can be assumed The expenditures on social services equaled that the changes in the funding of different 141.2 billion rubles or 54.8%. The large part of items of social spending will have different this amount was allocated to education (61.6 impacts on the region’s GRP. To determine billion – 43% of the total expenditure on the impact of budget expenditures on social services), health (35.8 billion rubles – regional economy it is necessary to clarify 25.3%) and social policy (33.4 billion – the distribution of resources. Stage II of the 23.6%). The expenses on culture and cinema, study presupposes the grouping of budget physical education and sport amounted to expenditures. 5.9 (4.1%) and 4.5 (3.1%) billion rubles, The first group comprises the expenses respectively [3; 4]. that are allocated to the enterprises serving Then we divide budget expenditures in the public sector in the form of yield (growth accordance with the classification of the in the number of related industries); therefore, government operations. they are a source of added value.

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The second group includes costs, which • construction – 8414 million rubles. directly increase disposable income of the Besides, we should pay attention to the population. In addition, there is a group of allocation of the increased fixed assets to the costs, which impact on the regional economy construction sector. Obviously, this cost item is impossible to estimate, since the actual also includes a number of other areas of final distribution of these costs cannot investment – machinery and equipment, be determined with a sufficient degree of vehicles, etc. So, the study assumes that only probability. So, the first group accounts for 70% of the costs to increase the value of fixed 21.8% of all budget expenditures on social assets have been allocated to the construction services, the second group – 61.5% and the and repair of buildings. third – 16.7%. Each of these groups has Allocating funds in certain sectors of the a different impact on the economy of the economy, the authorities form part of the region. gross output of the industry. According to the The first group includes the following SNA, gross output consists of two components: articles of budget expenditures: commu- added value and intermediate consumption. nication; transportation; utility services; rent Added value, in turn, consists of wages, for the property use; payment for works, profit and other taxes on production. The services for the property maintenance; other further analysis is conducted on the basis of works and services; the rise in the value of existing proportions in the regional economy fixed assets. (tab.). In order to determine the impact of budget For example, in the sector of production expenditures on a particular industry we can and distribution of electricity, gas and water compare the items of budget expenses with there is the following ratio: the share of added the economic activities. For example, value in gross production was 31.7%. In this the budget expenditures for transport and industry added value consisted of 43% of communications form a certain share wages, up 53.6% of enterprises’ profit and of economic activity “transport and 3.4% of other taxes on production. communications”. The utility costs form The calculations based on the table data the share of economic activity “production indicate the following amounts of gross added and distribution of gas and water”, etc. So, value in the related sectors at the expense of we get the following distribution of budget budget expenditures: expenditures by economic activities: – transport and communication – 336.8 • transport and communication – 563.4 million rubles; million rubles; – production and distribution of elect- • production and distribution of elect- ricity, gas and water – 1943.2 million rubles; ricity, gas and water – 6129 million rubles; – operations with real estate, rent and • operations with real estate, rent and services – 7583.3 million rubles; services – 12052 million rubles; – construction – 4004 million rubles.

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Structure of gross added value in the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011*

Gross The share of gross Structure of gross added value in % Gross added output, added value Economic activity value, million in the total Remu- Other taxes Gross million rubles rubles production, % neration on production income

Agriculture, hunting and 69308 39643 57.2 27.2 0.5 72.3

Fishing, fish farming 68 43 63.2 26.9 1 72.1

Mining 98901 51894 52.5 27.6 3.8 68.6

Manufacturing 1137397 359934 31.6 44 2.5 53.5

Production and distribution of elec- 190508 60402 31.7 43 3.4 53.6 tricity, gas and water

Construction 162936 77535 47.6 48.3 0.5 51.1

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, house- 381261 246177 64.6 29.1 1.7 69.3 hold goods and personal items

Hotels and restaurants 36346 15922 43.8 33.9 1.1 65

Transport and communications 245019 146482 59.8 27.5 2.6 69.9

Financial activities 11133 7093 63.7 40.8 0.1 59.1

Operations with real estate, rent and 165318 104069 63.0 39.6 1.1 59.3 services

Public administration and military 77993 52464 67.3 97.7 0.2 2.1 security, compulsory social security

Education 52331 39370 75.2 91.8 0.7 7.5

Health and social services 81317 52838 65.0 92 0.3 7.8

Other community, social and personal 19806 11815 59.7 77.8 0.6 21.6 services

* Calculated by: Natsional’nye scheta Rossii v 2004–2011 godakh: stat. sb. [National Accounts of Russia in 2004–2011: Statistics Digest]. Rosstat, Moscow, 2011. Pp. 251-259.

Thus, the total increase in gross value sectors accounted to 5866 million; gross added (GVA) in the related industries due to profit – to 7822 million rubles; other taxes on the social sphere financing from the budgets production – 178 million rubles. On the basis of all levels was 13867.3 million rubles. of total amount of remuneration we calculate On the basis of the table data we calculate the amount of real income formed at the the amount of remuneration, gross profit and expense of budget expenditures financing. other taxes on production, formed due to According to the SNA, the indicator demand from the state budget. In the result, “wages” includes taxes on profit and other the amount of remuneration, formed at the payments to employees, even if they are expense of budget expenditures in all four actually withheld by employers in admi-

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nistrative interests or by other reasons these industries is associated with the and paid directly to the state social non- population’s incomes, which are further budgetary funds, tax services on behalf of the used for consumption and accrual. After employee. Thus, employees’ remuneration necessary calculations, we get the following consists of two components: (a) wages; value of real income received by households (b) employers’ contributions to the state as a result of implementation of the budget social non-budgetary funds. expenses – 68571 million rubles (taking into Therefore, to calculate the amount of account monetary income of employees of funds which employees get in fact, it is the enterprises serving the public sector). necessary to single out the amount of com- As the households spend only part of pulsory social contributions and individual disposable income on consumptive use and income taxes. The calculations show that save another part, it is necessary to calculate the amount of employees’ real incomes has the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) amounted to 3809 million rubles. in the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011. For this we Then, households will save the part of compare consumer spending and income the given sum and spend another part on of the population. The initial data are taken consumer needs. It will result in the from the sample survey of household budgets, effective demand for food and non-food quarterly conducted by the statistical agencies goods and services. In other words, in the in all regions of the Russian Federation. In SNA terms the payment of wages provides particular, in the Sverdlovsk Oblast such the launch of enterprises and organizations survey considered about 1000 households that sell goods and services to the population with a different income level, place of in the region. residence, etc. [1, p. 126; 8]. These industries will form added value, The calculations show that the MPC in i.e. will create a multiplier effect. The the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011 amounted to available statistics take it into account partly. 0.706, i.e. on average the households spent It should be noted that the yield of the 70.6% of disposable income on consumption. enterprises serving the public sector will Thus, the amount of real income, aimed at also create a multiplier effect, as part of this consumer spending, amounted to 48411 amount after profit or dividends distribution million rubles. will be at the disposal of the owners of the Then, it is required to consider the enterprise. Another part can be directed to structure of household consumption. On the investment. Unfortunately, this statistics does basis of the same data we single out major not take into account this effect. items of household expenditure (fig. 2). As Stage III of the study is to calculate the you can see in the chart, almost all consumer impact of the second group of budget items expenditures are part of three groups: the on the regional economy (remuneration, purchase of food-products, the purchase social service benefits, etc.). As it has of non-food products and the payment for been noted above, the primary effect of services. They together accounted for 94% of

108 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT D.A. Tatarkin, E.N. Sidorova

Figure 2. Structure of consumer expenditures of the population in the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011

3.5 2.5

29.1 Food products

27.3 Non-food products

Services

Eating out

Alcoholic beverage

37.6

Source: Struktura ispol’zovaniya denezhnykh dokhodov naseleniya v Sverdlovskoi oblasti: analiticheskii material Rosstata po Sverdlovskoi oblasti [Structure of the Use of the Population Income in the Sverdlovsk Oblast: Analytical Material of Russian Statistics of the Sverdlovsk Oblast]. Available at: http://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/data.do?id=31502&referrerType= 0&referrerId=1292867

all expenses. Expenditures on eating out and consumer expenditures), household servi- purchase of alcoholic beverages comprised ces – 3.4%, culture – 4.5%, education – 1.1%, the remaining 6%. medicine – 2.3%, health resort treatment – With the available data on the marginal 0.5%, passenger transportation – 2.4%, propensity to consume and the structure of communication – 3.2 % and other servi- consumer expenses in the Sverdlovsk Oblast ces – 1.4% [8]. being taken into account, the purchase of The purchase of food, non-food products food products required 14087 million rubles, and alcoholic beverages is made through a the purchase of non-food goods – 18202.5 network of shops; therefore, the costs of million rubles; the payment for services – households on these goods are treated as 13216.2 million rubles; eating out – 1694.3 revenue of the industry of wholesale and million rubles and the purchase of alcoholic retail trade. Expenditures on eating out are beverages – 1210.2 million rubles. considered as production of the sector “hotels Each of these groups is optionally divided and restaurants”, etc. Having compared into more specific elements. For example, the data of the table and figure 2 on the the payment for services includes the follo- structure of household consumption, we wing articles: utility services – 8.3% (of total calculate gross value added, formed at the

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expense of households’ income, obtained expenditure includes the remuneration of in the course of the budgetary financing of employees (residents and nonresidents), social expenditures. It amounted to 15675 gross profit in all industries or institutional million rubles, with 6311 million rubles being sectors and net taxes on production and remuneration, 9112 million rubles – gross import. As a result, the direct effect of profit of enterprises and 259 million rubles – budgetary financing of social expenditures is other taxes on production. On the basis of the estimated at 62831 million rubles of added obtained values of remuneration, we can again value. calculate the re-growth of real incomes – Thus, having added the direct and 4098 billion rubles indirect effect, we have found out that in Stage IV (final) includes the calculation the Sverdlovsk Oblast in 2011 added value of the total multiplier effect of public amounted to 92373 million rubles at the financing of social sectors. For this purpose expense of the budgetary expenditure on it is necessary to sum added value in the social services. Correlation of the total related sectors, calculated during Stage II of effect and the total budget expenditures the study, and added value, and received at on social services at the rate of 141258.4 Stage III. The total sum amounted to 29542 million rubles revealed the value of the billion rubles. multiplier equal to 0.65. So, one ruble of To get a clearer idea of the size of the social budget expenditures from all sources multiplier effect, it is necessary to compare (federal, regional and municipal) creates it with the total amount of funds allocated to 65 kopecks of GRP in the Sverdlovsk Oblast. finance the social sphere from budgets of all Thus, the study clearly shows that the budget levels. To do this, one should calculate the expenditures on social services had not amount of gross regional product produced only a social, but also significant economic at the expense of budget costs. impact on the region’s development. As you know, GRP can be calculated by It should be noted that the proposed three methods: production, a method of approach does not fully reflect the impact revenues use and a method of GDP formation of budget expenditure on the GRP formation by the sources of income. For research in the region. The main reason for this is a purposes, the calculation is based on the lack of statistical information and research assessment of the direct effect of financing in the field of the structure of costs on social budget expenditures, equal to the production and services, profit distribution remuneration costs of employees of state and consumer preferences of different and municipal institutions. This approach population groups. However, it can be approximates to the GRP calculation based assumed that in case of further development on the method of generating income sources. of this approach the total value of the In this case, GRP as part of the budgetary multiplier will be even higher.

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Cited works 1. Revenues, Expenditures and Consumption of Households in 2012: Statistics Digest. Rosstat, Moscow, 2013. 2. National Accounts of Russia in 2004–2011: Statistics Digest. Rosstat, Moscow, 2011. 344 p. 3. Report on Cash Receipt and Replacement of Budgetary Funds as of January 1, 2012. Available at: http://sverdlovsk. roskazna.ru/file/fs/39066.0503124.ARJ 4. Report on the Execution of the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation Subject and the Territorial Extra- Budgetary Fund as of January 1, 2012. Available at: http://www.roskazna.ru/byudzhetov-subektov-rf-i-mestnykh- byudzhetov/doc/reports_file807.zip 5. The 2011 Russian Statistical Yearbook: Statistic Digest. Moscow, 2011. 795 p. 6. Russia and the World Countries in 2011: Statistic Digest. Rosstat, Moscow, 2012. 372 p. 7. Sidorova E. N., Tatarkin D. A. Financial Potential of the Regions and their Socio-Economic Attractiveness. Ekaterinburg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN, 2013. 385 p. 8. Structure of the Use of the Population Income in the Sverdlovsk Oblast: Analytical Material of Russian Statistics of the Sverdlovsk Oblast. Available at: http://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/data.do?id=31502&referrerType=0&referr erId=1292867 9. Society at a Glance 2011. OECD Social Indicators: Analytical Material of OECD. Available at: http://www.oecd. org/els/soc/societyataglance2011.htm 10. Society at a Glance 2014. OECD Social Indicators. The Crisis and Its Aftermath Analytical Material of OECD. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/8113171e.pdf?expires=1403171952&id=id&a ccname=guest&checksum=7357A8CE8F69299C776EEE5D1AF10B2C

References 1. Dokhody, raskhody i potreblenie domashnikh khozyaistv v 2012 godu: stat. sb. [Revenues, Expenditures and Consumption of Households in 2012: Statistics Digest]. Rosstat, Moscow, 2013. 2. Natsional’nye scheta Rossii v 2004–2011 godakh: stat. sb. [National Accounts of Russia in 2004–2011: Statistics Digest]. Rosstat, Moscow, 2011. 344 p. 3. Otchet o kassovom postuplenii i vybytii byudzhetnykh sredstv na 1.01.2012 g. [Report on Cash Receipt and Replacement of Budgetary Funds as of January 1, 2012]. Available at: http://sverdlovsk.roskazna.ru/file/ fs/39066.0503124.ARJ 4. Otchet ob ispolnenii konsolidirovannogo byudzheta sub”ekta Rossiiskoi Federatsii i Territorial’nogo vnebyudzhetnogo fonda na 1.01.2012 g. [Report on the Execution of the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation Subject and the Territorial Extra-Budgetary Fund as of January 1, 2012]. Available at: http://www.roskazna.ru/byudzhetov- subektov-rf-i-mestnykh-byudzhetov/doc/reports_file807.zip 5. Rossiiskii statisticheskii ezhegodnik. 2011: stat. sb. [The 2011 Russian Statistical Yearbook: Statistic Digest]. Moscow, 2011. 795 p. 6. Rossiya i strany mira. 2011: stat. sb. [Russia and the World Countries in 2011: Statistic Digest]. Rosstat, Moscow, 2012. 372 p. 7. Sidorova E. N., Tatarkin D. A. Finansovyi potentsial regionov i ikh sotsial’no-ekonomicheskaya privlekatel’nost’ [Financial Potential of the Regions and Their Socio-Economic Attractiveness]. Ekaterinburg: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN, 2013. 385 p.

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8. Struktura ispol’zovaniya denezhnykh dokhodov naseleniya v Sverdlovskoi oblasti: analiticheskii material Rosstata po Sverdlovskoi oblasti [Structure of the Use of the Population Income in the Sverdlovsk Oblast: Analytical Material of Russian Statistics of the Sverdlovsk Oblast]. Available at: http://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/data.do? id=31502&referrerType=0&referrerId=1292867 9. Society at a Glance 2011. OECD Social Indicators: Analytical Material of OECD. Available at: http://www.oecd. org/els/soc/societyataglance2011.htm 10. Society at a Glance 2014. OECD Social Indicators. The Crisis and Its Aftermath Analytical Material of OECD. Available at: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/8113171e.pdf?expires=1403171952&id=id&a ccname=guest&checksum=7357A8CE8F69299C776EEE5D1AF10B2C

112 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

UDC 316.342(470.12), LBC 60.541.4(2Rus-4Vol) © Solov’eva T.S., Shabunova A.A. Middle class in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District: quantity and reproduction capabilities *

Tat’yana Sergeevna SOLOV’EVA Junior Research Associate, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Aleksandra Anatol’evna SHABUNOVA Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Deputy Director, Head of the Department, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The priority of the government policy in the current economic and social situation is to maintain constant innovation development in all social spheres; therefore, the formation of middle class as the guarantee of social stability appears to be particularly relevant due to certain characteristic features of middle class representatives. These features include responsibility, high social activity and consciousness. Therefore, research into the size and structure of middle class is one of the main goals of modern sociology. The article analyses the middle class in the region on the basis of sociological surveys conducted in 2008–2013 in the Vologda Oblast and in the Northwestern Federal District. The authors present approaches to studying and assessing the middle class, and make an attempt to determine its size. The article proposes

* The work was executed in the framework of the project 4.9 “Challenges of modernization: social and cultural stratification and mobility in the regions” Draft informational Letter of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences No. 31 “The role of space in the modernization of Russia: natural and socio-economic potential”.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 113 Middle class in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District: quantity and reproduction capabilities

an internal structure of the middle class in the region and draws a portrait of a typical representative of this category. The authors have found out that social mobility of the middle class in the region is low due to a number of socio- economic factors; this fact hampers the growth of the middle class up to the quantity determined in the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Vologda Oblast for the Period up to 2020. Key words: social structure, middle class, self-identification, social mobility.

Social stratification is one of the most the position of the middle class able to act as discussed and important issues in modern a guarantor of Russia’s stable and progressive economics. Society is a hierarchical structure development, as well as the bearer of its in the form of a pyramid, consisting of groups innovation potential. The pace of economic, with higher status on the top and lower status political, and social transformation will at the base. In general, we can distinguish largely depend on the possible rapid formation three social strata – the upper, the middle of the middle class, which is the basis for any and the lower, among which the middle developed modern state” [13]. layer is seen as the most significant for the Continuous increase in the size of the development of society and the state. middle class, which by 2020 should be at least Many researchers are of the opinion that 55–60% of the RF population, is one of the it is the middle class that can become the important targets set out in the Concept for foundation for the promotion (imple- long-term socio-economic development of mentation) of modernization reforms [6, 7, 9, Russia till 2020 [12, p. 7]. The importance 17], since the people constituting the middle of the study of the middle class for Russia’s class have considerable creative potential society, which is on its way to modernization, and high social activity, i.e. characteristics is defined by its ability to act as the foundation that play an important role in the formation for stable development of Russia and to of high-quality human capital required for increase its innovation capacity. the formation of innovation economy. The The necessity to form the middle class has middle class consists of highly qualified been substantiated many times in the personnel, professionals with stable income, Presidential Addresses to the Federal which they spend on purchasing goods and Assembly of the Russian Federation since services with the best price/quality ratio, 1998 (tab. 1). V. Putin in his pre-election thereby forming the market by their demand article published in 2012 pointed out that in and stimulating the development of industry Russia the middle class “should grow further and services. At the same time, the middle and become a majority in the society, to grow class “is the main producer and consumer of at the expense of those who drags the country mass, urban culture that represents the basis on their backs: doctors, teachers, engineers, of national culture” [5]. skilled workers” [16]. Experts point out that the formation and Understanding of the importance of the development of strong civil society should be middle class and care about its well-being is a based on “public policy aimed to strengthen priority of state policy in many developed

114 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

Table 1. Objectives and importance of the middle class in the Addresses of Russia’s President to the RF Federal Assembly

President Understanding of importance of formation of the middle class A large and stable middle class is the foundation of civil society and stability of the constitutional system; improvement of the country’s economy and formation of the middle class are closely interrelated objectives; B.N. Yeltsin it is the middle class that is able to become the backbone and driving force of Russia’s economic recovery [1998 Address]. It is necessary to form the middle class through the growth of small and medium business, which needs V.V. Putin state support [2007 Address]. An “ideal” representative of the middle class (i.e. the ideal, which we should try and reach in the future, according to D.A. Medvedev), is largely similar to the representative of the middle class in Western countries. it is a talented individual capable of critical thinking, in a spirit of intellectual freedom and civic D.A. Medvedev activeness, a responsible citizen who appreciates social stability and respect the law and at the same time is willing to assume responsibility for the situation in his/her own village or town, and realizes that only an active position can set the heavy machine that is government bureaucracy in motion. [2009 Address].

Source: Address of the President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation: With joint efforts – to the rise of Russia”. 1998. Available at: http://www.intelros. org/lib/elzin/1998.htm (accessed March 24, 2014); Address of the President of Russia V.V. Putin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. 2007. Available at: http://www.rg.ru/2007/04/27/poslanie.html (accessed March 24, 2014); Address of the President of Russia D.A. Medvedev to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. 2009 Available at: http://www.rg.ru/2009/11/13/poslanie-tekst.html (accessed March 24, 2014). countries. In his 2013 Address to the U.S. Let us refer to the essence of the category Congress B. Obama pointed out that “the of “middle class”. The formation of the main long-term objective of the current concept “middle class” has a long history, U.S. Government is to restore the role of the but the meaning embedded in it at different middle class as the driving force of American stages of the development of scientific economy” [21]. French President F. Hollande knowledge varied depending on the socio- in his election campaign proposed “to put economic conditions of society. Aristotle France back on its feet” by creating a public divided society into three parts: the rich, the investment bank financing the development poor and those between them. He noted that of small and medium enterprises, promoting “the state where the middle class is more environmental and energy conversion of numerous and powerful than the other two industry, the transformation of small and classes combined, is the most stable and medium enterprises into economic priority for better manageable” [2, pp. 148-151]. Basic France, support of new technology and “digital approaches to the understanding of this economy” [8], focusing on the strengthening category are presented in table 2. of the middle class in the country. The task of identifying this stratum is no However, the recognition of the impor- less difficult. There are several options for tance and understanding of the need for the determining the size of the middle class, formation and support of the middle class which differ by the content of evaluation has not formed a clear theoretical and criteria. Experts in different countries methodological approach to the assessment identify the middle class according to various, of its scale. although largely similar, criteria (tab. 3).

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Table 2. Main approaches to the interpretation of the term “middle class”

Author Middle class is K. Marx, V.I. Lenin, A social stratum located between the two main opposing classes (bourgeoisie and proletariat). M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky and others A status group formed by the life chances of individuals: their individual abilities (education, qualifi- M. Weber cation, worldview) and characteristics of their lifestyle, way of obtaining education and profession. An element of social structure that performs social functions specified by that structure (functions L. Warner, K.Davies, of social stabilizer, conductor of social mobility, the main consumer of goods and services, integra- W. Moore, P. Sorokin tor of public interests, etc.). A “service class” (professionals, managers, administrators), the main characteristics of which are J. Goldthorpe, D. Lockwood, mental labor and trust in work relationships, and the sources of its replenishment are the chances D. Grusky of social mobility and personal qualities of individuals. A social group located at the intersection of main identification features, which include: material E.M. Avramova wellbeing, higher professional education and social identification with the middle stratum. M.K. Gorshkov, N.E. Tikhonova, A class characterized by “high social attitudes and consumption practices”. S.V. Mareeva

Sources: Marx K., Engels F. Rabochii parlament [Working Parliament]. Sochineniya [Works]. 2nd ed. 1958. Vol. 10. P. 124; Weber M. Osnovnye ponyatiya stratifikatsii [Basic Concepts of Stratification]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies], 1994, no.5, pp. 169-183; Srednii klass v sovremennoi Rossii [Middle Class in Modern Russia]. Executive editors: M.K. Gorshkov, N.E. Tikhonova; RAS Institute of Sociology. Moscow, 2008. 320 p.; Warner L. What is Social Class in America. New York, NY: Irvington Publishers, 1949; Tik- honova N.E., Mareeva S.V. Srednii klass: teoriya i real’nost’ [Middle Class: Theory and Reality]. Moscow: Al’fa-M, 2009. 320 p.; Avramova E.M., Grigor’ev L.M., Kosmarskaya T.P., Maleva T.M., Mikhailyuk M.V., Ovcharova L.N., Radaev V.V., Urnov M.Yu. Srednii klass v Rossii: kolichestvennye i kachestvennye otsenki [Middle Class in Russia: Quantitative and Qualitative Assessment]. BEA [Bureau of Economic Analysis]. Moscow: TEIS, 2000. 286 p.; Davies K., Moore W. Nekotorye printsipy stratifikatsii [Some principles of Social Stratification]. Sotsial’naya stratifikatsiya [Social Stratification], 1992, issue 1, pp. 160-177; Goldthorpe J., McKnight A. The Economic Basis of Social Class. Sociology Working Papers. University of Oxford, 2003. 245 p.

During the panel session “The BRICS’s can be referred to a particular stratum, is his/ Middle Class Starts to Flex Their Muscles” her financial situation and level of education. carried out within the framework of Saint At the same time, representatives of the Petersburg International Economic middle class should be considerably involved Forum-2013 the chief economist of in social and cultural life. Renaissance Capital investment group In our opinion, the middle class should Charles Robertson noted that “representatives be understood as busy, socially active people of the middle class, regardless of their country with higher and secondary vocational of residence, are characterized by the desire education, who identify themselves with the for better standards of education and health. middle class, and who possess significant In addition, the middle class is interested cultural capital and stable income to satisfy in the transparency of relationship between a wide range of needs. business and authorities and, therefore, in the The size of the middle class in Russia, fight against corruption” [19]. according to expert assessments, ranges from Thus, the concept of “middle class” is 3% (“ideal middle class”) to 30–60% characterized by a rather broad set of criteria, (“promising middle class”), depending on the however, the basis, upon which an individual method of assessment [1, pp. 28-36].

116 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

Table 3. Comparison of the criteria for selection of the middle class Country Criteria for defining the middle class Quantitative values High level of professional education Level of income Russia Patterns (level of consumption) > 6 subsistence levels Lifestyle Level of self-identification Level of self-identification Level of education Ukraine 1000 U.S. dollars per month Financial wellbeing Type of employment Property Level of income Level of education Belarus Prestige of the profession 2-3 minimal consumer budgets Level of self-identification Lifestyle System of values and mentality Level of income Germany Level of education 1130-2420 euro per month Professional affiliation Level of education China Level of income 10-100 thousand yuan Professional affiliation Level of income Level of education USA 25-100 thousand U.S. dollars per month Level of self-identification The use of loans

Source: Sokolova G. Sostoyanie i vozmozhnosti razvitiya srednego klassa v Belarusi [Current State and Opportunities for Middle Class Development in Belarus]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika [Society and Economics], 2010, no.7-8, pp. 199-218; Dobrova T.G. Srednii klass v Ukraine: sub”ektivnoe vospriyatie i real’nost’ [Middle Class in Ukraine: Subjective Perception and Reality]. Vestnik ONU im. I.I. Mechnikova [Bulletin of the Odessa National University], 2012, volume 17, issue 2, pp. 67-75; Zhou Xiaohong. Zhonggo zhongchan jieji: xianshi yi- huo gouxiang. Tianjin shehui kexue, 2006, no.2. pp. 60-66; Grigor’ev L., Salmina A., Kuzina O. Rossiiskii srednii klass: analiz struktury i finansovogo povedeniya [Russian Middle Class: Analysis of its Structure and Financial Behavior]. Moscow: EkonInform, 2009. 148 p.; Dolya srednego klassa v Germanii [The Share of the Middle Class in Germany]. Available at: www.dw.de/dw/article/0,14772101.html (accessed March 24, 2014); Who is the Middle Class? Available at: http:// www.pbs.org / now / politics / middleclassoverview.html (accessed March 24, 2014).

Specialists identify this category mainly two-thirds of it, and officials form its basis. by using the following criteria: financial situ- The middle class in Russia can be considered ation (income, savings, property), education as relatively young and urban, since most of level, professional status, cultural values, etc. its representatives are people under 40 (60% Over the last 10 years the share of the of its population), who live in cities and middle class in Russia’s population has metropolitan areas. Representatives of the increased from 29 to 42%. Researchers at middle class feel more confident in the labor RAS Institute of Sociology in their report market, but in recent years their willingness to “Middle class in modern Russia: 10 years invest in their education and qualification has later” point out that women constitute almost been declining, which is a national trend [18].

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An increase in the size of the middle class In the scale “city/village → region → (particularly its part formed by bureaucracy) country” there is a noticeable decline in the is understandable, given the fact that in the proportion of the population, identifying recent years the salary of officials has been themselves as the middle class (from 42 growing three times faster than that of the rest to 59%), and an increase in the values of the population. As a result, the income gap of indicators characterizing people’s between civil servants and average Russians identification as the lower strata of the society has almost tripled [11]. (from 5 to 13%). An important source of information on The middle class most representative for the middle class is sociological research in its region is noted in the the regions; therefore, we will build our (70%) and Karelia Republic (67%), and least further reasoning and conclusions on the representative – in the Murmansk Oblast results of such research conducted by the (52%). The size of the middle class in the Institute of Socio-Economic Development Vologda Oblast is approximately equal to of Territories of the Russian Academy of the average district value – 56–58%. The Sciences in the Northwestern Federal District representation of the upper social strata and in the Vologda Oblast1. (upper and above middle) is the most According to the survey, performed by extensive in the Leningrad Oblast, and Saint ISEDT RAS in 2013, a significant share of Petersburg (15–22%). It should be noted residents in the NWFD regions consider that the share of those, who are not sure themselves to be the middle class (tab. 4). which category they belong to, increases in

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “What social strata do you belong to: in your city (village), in the region and in your country?”, NWFD (in % of the number of respondents)

Answer options In your city/village In the region In the country

Upper class 1.7 0.9 0.9 Class above middle 9.4 6.5 4.7 Middle class 58.8 51.7 42.2 Class below middle 17.9 22.6 24.5 Lower class 5.0 6.9 13.2 It is difficult to answer 7.2 11.5 14.6

1 The sample is more than 5000 people in ten regions of the Northwestern Federal District (the Arkhangelsk, Vologda, , Leningrad, Murmansk, Novgorod, Pskov oblasts, republics of Karelia and Komi, Saint Petersburg). The sample size for each region is not less than 400 respondents, which ensures a high degree of confidence (sampling error does not exceed 5% with a confidence interval of 95%) in evaluating the situation in a particular region and in conducting cross-regional comparisons.

118 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

Figure 1. Representation of the middle class in the NWFD regions in 2013

45 39.7 40 34.7 32.9 35 29.1 30 25 28.6 26.5 26.3 25.5 20 25.2 15 17.3 10 5 0

Middle class, % Average for NWFD

proportion to the size of the territory, within professional status and educational level of which the self-identification is made (from the population (fig. 1). In general, the scale 7% for their own locality to 15% nation- of the middle class in the Northwestern wide) [20]. Federal District is about 30%. The Republic The selection of the middle class is more of Karelia (about 40%), Saint Petersburg accurate, when it is based on the intersec- (35%) and the (17%) distinguish tion of several criteria, for example, by the themselves among the rest of the regions. methodology of L.A. Belyaeva2, using the This is caused by a higher self-evaluation data on material wealth, self-identification, of financial situation and level of self- identification with the middle class in Karelia 2 According to the methodology of L.A. Belyaeva, the boundaries of the middle class and its size in the region are and Saint Petersburg and, consequently, defined using three criteria: 1) self-identification with the lower indicators in the Pskov Oblast. middle stratum of society; 2) financial wellbeing at the level of the wealthy and prosperous; 3) at least secondary vocational Using different methodological appro- education. The intersection of these criteria allows us to select a aches, each of which assumes a certain set of group that can be identified as middle class. You can find more information on the subject in: Lapin N.I., Belyaeva L.A. The criteria, let us take a closer look at the size of program and standard tools “Socio-cultural portrait of Russia’s the middle class on the example of the region” (Modification – 2010); Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Philosophy. Moscow: IFRAS, 2010. Pp. 60-61. Vologda Oblast (tab. 5).

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Table 5. Share of the middle class in the Vologda Oblast in accordance with various approaches (in % of the number of respondents) Share in %* Approaches to estimation of the middle class and their criteria 2010 2012 2013 I. Criterion of self-identification of the population with the middle class 51 54 50 II. Criteria according to the methodology of L.A. Belyaeva 1. Self-identification 30 25 29 2. Financial wellbeing 3. Level of education (not lower than secondary vocational) III. Criteria set out by the Foundation of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 1. Financial and property situation 3.2 n/a. 3.5 2. Educational and professional status 3. Self-identification of an individual with the middle class IV. Criteria set out in the Concept for long-term economic development of the Russian Federation 1. Average per capita income over 6 subsistence levels 1 n/a 1 2. Motor car 3. Savings in a bank 4. Affordability of annual vacation abroad V. Criteria set out by the All-Russian Center of Living Standards 1. Higher education 2. Comfortable dwelling of two types (in town and in the country) 3. Motor car 0.1 n/a 0.1 4. Half of the income goes to savings 5. Healthy lifestyle 6. Ability to provide children with higher education, necessary treatment, the initial capital for the purchase of housing

* Hereinafter the calculations are performed by A.N. Gordievskaya, ISEDT RAS Research Engineer

The calculations were carried out using corresponds to the nationwide data [6]. the data from surveys of the population, In accordance with the first approach conducted by ISEDT RAS in 2010–20133. (identifying oneself with one of the social Depending on the applied methodology, classes) about half of the Vologda Oblast the representation of the middle class in the residents say they belong to the middle Vologda Oblast is from 0.1 to 50%, which class. Moreover, in the scale “city/village →

3 The polls are held annually in Vologda, Cherepovets, region → country” there is a reduction in the and in eight districts of the Vologda Oblast (Babayevsky District, proportion of people who identify themselves Velikoustyugsky District, Vozhegodsky District, Gryazovetsky District, Kirillovsky District, Nikolsky District, Tarnogsky as the middle class, and an increase in the District and Sheksninsky District). The method of the survey is proportion of the population, who think of a questionnaire poll by place of residence of respondents. The volume of a sample population is 1500 people aged from 18 and themselves as the lower strata of the society older. The sample is purposeful and quoted. Representativeness (tab. 6). The indicators obtained on the of the sample is ensured by the observance of the proportion between the urban and rural population, the proportion basis of public opinion, as a rule, have high between the inhabitants of settlements of various types (rural values, because a rather complex process of communities, small and medium-sized cities), age and sex social identification is influenced by socio- structure of the oblast’s adult population. Sampling error does not exceed 3%. economic conditions of life of an individual.

120 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: “What social strata do you belong to: in your city (village), in the region and nationwide?”, 2014 (in % of the number of respondents) Answer option City / Village Region Country Upper class 0.7 0.5 0.7 Class above middle 7.3 5.1 3.7 Middle class 55.8 50.9 41.7 Class below middle 20.1 23.9 24.8 Lower class 6.1 6.3 12.7 It is difficult to answer 10.1 13.2 16.5

Table 7. Dynamics of the middle class in the Vologda Oblast (% of the number of respondents) Indicator Year City / Village Region Country 2010 13.7 11.6 8.5 2012 24.5 23.5 17.7 2013 28.6 26.5 20.7

Most people identify themselves not so criteria (savings, own car, education not lower much as the middle class in the classical than higher, etc.) show that the share of the sense, but rather as a middle economic middle class in the region does not exceed stratum. 3%. The main factor limiting the expansion By increasing the number of indicators to of this category is a low level of income, which three (self-identification, financial wealth entails a low level of savings and provision and level of education (not lower than with material goods, the inability to fully meet secondary vocational education), we calculate the needs of recreation and entertainment. the size of the middle class in the Vologda The middle class in the Vologda Oblast is Oblast: this figure for the locality is 29%, for more often represented by women (tab. 8). the region – 27%; for the country – 21% Age interval is 30–55 years. Education is (tab. 7). This means that in the direction from essentially higher and postgraduate. The settlement to country there is a reduction in middle class, as a rule, is represented by people’s self-identification with the middle family people, most of whom live in cities. class. However, over the last five years this The backbone of the middle class consists indicator within each territory has increased of “wealthy” people not in a position of steadily, with the exception of 2010, when authority, who have obtained secondary there was a sharp decline in self-identification and higher professional education, and are of the population with the middle class in satisfied with their lives. the aftermath of the global financial and In general, this “social portrait” coincides economic crisis. with the data of RAS Institute of Sociology, Calculations according to the metho- according to which a typical representative of dologies that take into account more narrow the Russian middle class is “a young female

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professional, who lives in a big city, has higher In 2010 ISEDT RAS developed its own education, works in her professional specialty, algorithm for identifying representatives of is satisfied with her social position, income, the middle class, including the following career and increase of opportunities for criteria: entrepreneurship. However, the proportion of – average monthly income equal to 2.5 entrepreneurs among the Russian middle class subsistence levels per person (more than 20 is small (as well as in the whole country)” [15]. thousand rubles for the Vologda Oblast in the sixth quarter of 2013); The socio-demographic structure of the – self-evaluation of income (“I have middle class in the Vologda Oblast has enough money to buy necessary food and undergone some changes for the period of clothing”, “the purchase of durable goods is 2008–2013 (tab. 8). First, the proportion of not a problem”); pensioners has increased significantly (15% – level of education not lower than in 2008; 23% in 2013), especially women of secondary vocational; retirement age (twofold increase). Secondly, – job status (worker, specialist, head) the share of people with higher education [10, p. 51]. has increased 1.5 times; consequently, the The composition of the middle class was representation of persons with secondary determined with the use of cluster analysis by vocational and incomplete higher education the method of k-means, excluding iteration. has decreased (1.2 and 2.2 times). In compliance with all criteria out of the whole

Table 8. Socio-demographic characteristics of the middle class in the Vologda Oblast, 2008–2013 (% of the number of respondents) Middle class Socio-demographic characteristics 2008 2010 2012 2013 21.1 13.7 24.5 28.6 Sex/age Men aged under 30 13.3 11.7 11.2 11.7 30–60 26.6 25.4 22.4 23.8 over 60 4.4 4.4 7.3 6.1 Women aged under 30 15.5 14.1 11.6 12.6 30–55 32.0 33.7 31.7 28.7 over 55 8.2 10.7 15.8 17.2 Education Secondary vocational (technical school, etc.) 40.5 55.6 48.3 33.3 Incomplete higher (not less than 3 years at college) 15.5 7.8 7.3 7.0 Higher 41.5 35.1 42.1 59.7 Postgraduate (second university degree, graduate school, etc.) 2.5 1.5 2.3 – Type of settlement City 83.0 74.2 72.2 83.0 Village 17.1 25.9 27.8 17.0

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array of the population a category was selected, 3. The lower stratum, comprising 28% amounting to about 10% of the population, of the population, is called “workers”. It broken down into three subgroups, similar includes people with secondary vocational in certain features that do not go beyond education, income of 20–25 thousand rubles, the bounds of the values of the criterion that engaged primarily in manufacturing or in separate one cluster from another. It resulted in the services sector. the formation of cluster centers, which showed In case of a sharp deterioration in the the dominating features of the representatives financial position the representatives of the of each group (tab. 9). middle class twice as often as the population The methodology allows us to define three in general state their willingness to work. In strata in the structure of the middle class: addition, the provision with material goods in 1. The upper stratum is the “organizers” this category is significantly higher than that that make up about 10% of the total number among the general population: twice as much of the middle class. Representatives of this people have private plots and property, which group have higher education, an income of they can dispose of, foreign-made cars, and about 35–65 thousand rubles per person, and savings. The middle class is characterized by they hold leadership positions. As a rule, these a higher cultural capital: they visit museums, are entrepreneurs, men aged 30–60, who exhibitions, and theatres 2–3 times more have their own business. often. They do sports regularly; they keep to 2. The most representative is the middle a balanced diet and go on vacation abroad 2 stratum – “intellectuals” (62%) with higher times more often. education, income of 25–35 thousand rubles, As we can see from table 9, there has been and high purchasing power. These include a reduction in the representation of the upper mainly highly qualified specialists of social stratum of the middle class in the Vologda sphere (doctors, teachers, journalists, etc.), Oblast under the impact of the global engineering and technical personnel. financial and economic crisis (in 2008 – 19%;

Table 9. Number of strata of the middle class and their cluster centers in the Vologda Oblast, 2008–2013 Strata of the middle class Lower stratum, Middle stratum, Upper stratum, Criterion “workers”: “intellectuals”: “organizers”: 2008 – 33%; 2008 – 48%; 2008 – 19%; 2010 – 19,8%; 2010 – 69,3%; 2010 – 10,9%; 2013 –28,2% 2013 – 61,6% 2013 – 10,2% 1. Average monthly income per 20 – 25 thousand 25 – 35 thousand 35 – 65 thousand person, rub. I have enough money to buy Purchase of durable goods Purchase of durable goods 2. Assessment of their own income necessary food and clothing is not a problem is not a problem 3. Level of education Secondary vocational Higher Higher 4. Job status Worker Specialist Head

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in 2013 – 10%), an increase in the number Socio-economic differentiation violates of representatives of the stratum of “intel- the homogeneity of the middle class, which lectuals” (in 2008 – 48%; in 2013 – 62%), is divided into separate subclasses depending with a simultaneous sharp reduction in the on the financial level and social status of indi- number of “workers” (from 33% in 2008 to viduals. Experts often associate the high level 20% in 2010) and its subsequent growth in the of inequality with greater opportunities for post-crisis stage (up to 28% in 2013). social mobility. In this regard, it is neces- Proceeding from the above understanding sary to assess the scale of the middle class of the category “middle class”, the financial “in conjunction with the indicators of social wellbeing of individuals who constitute the mobility, i.e. with opportunities of transition middle class should be sufficient to satisfy from one class to another. The reduction of their vital needs; thus, we have added financial the penetrability of social boundaries is one ability to buy food and pay for services to the of the primary reasons for deterioration of the list of criteria for estimating the size of the position of the middle class, because other- middle class. However, the inclusion of these wise, by shrinking, it is not able to reproduce criteria has not significantly changed the at the expense of the influx of the poor strata internal structure of the middle class in the of population” [6, p. 19-28]. Vologda Oblast. In 2013–2014 ISEDT RAS carried out a Consequently, the use of a larger num- study of social stratification and social ber of criteria reduces considerably the mobility of the population in the Northwestern representation of the middle class in the Federal District4; its results show that the level region – from 30% when using three of mobility of the entire population three parameters to 0.1% if the number of times exceeds that of the mobility of the parameters is increased to six. category related to the middle class (fig. 2).

4 The study was conducted on the basis of the survey of the population in the NWFD regions in the second quarter of 2013. The volume of sample was 5113 people. The total coefficient of mobility and the resulting indicators were calculated by the question: “Mark the changes in your social status in the society” (it became higher/lower, it did not change). The system of the following indicators was used for measuring social mobility: 1. The general coefficient of mobility is equal to the ratio of the number of persons who made transitions to the total number of population: n Q0= 0/N0*100%. 2. The indicator of upward mobility is equal to the share of people, who make transitions with the rise of their social status:

VP =ΣΣNij / N0; (i < j). 3. The indicator of downward mobility is equal to the share of people, who made transitions with the decrease of their social status:

Vn =ΣΣ Nij / N0; (i > j). 4. The indicator of structural (vertical) mobility is equal to the difference between the rates of upward and downward mobility: Cv = Vp – Vn. 5. The coefficient of exchange mobility is equal to the difference between the total coefficient of mobility and the coefficient of structural (vertical) mobility:

P0 = Q0 – Cv.

124 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

Figure 2. Indices of social mobility of the Vologda Oblast population

10.5 8.5 Middle class 2.1 6.4 4.1

33 21.9 Total population 11.1 10.9 22.1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Total mobility index Upward mobility index Downward mobility index Index of structural (vertical) mobility Circulation mobility index

In general, it should be noted that social This indicator in the strata of the middle mobility of the Vologda Oblast population is class is only 4%, which proves that the 33% ,which is on average by 5–10% lower transfer to this group is difficult. This raises than in most regions of the NWFD (the concerns in relation to the reproduction of is the leader – 47%). It the middle class and further reduction in its is most likely that the level of social status, number. which the middle class in the Vologda Oblast We can conclude from the above that the has reached, is at the moment the upper task to increase the share of the middle class limit, and it is difficult to reach beyond it. up to 65% set out in the Strategy for socio- In this case, it would be more reasonable to economic development of the Vologda talk about mobility within the middle class – Oblast for the period up to 2020 [14] is from its upper to lower groups and vice difficult to accomplish. In order to increase versa. Exchange mobility shows the degree the penetrability of the middle class and of openness of the group – the smaller the enhance social mobility, it is necessary first mobility, the more closed the group and it is of all to reduce the impact of factors that difficult to enter it [4, pp. 205-212]. hamper the movement of people from lower

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 125 Middle class in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District: quantity and reproduction capabilities

to higher strata. One of the main “brakes” in – development of national mechanisms the growth of the middle class is the low level for regulation of prices for low-end apartments of income, which reduces the availability of and increase of the availability of mortgage for different goods and makes it difficult to meet all segments of population; the demands of individuals. – introduction of progressive taxation. Besides, a representative of the middle However, it is not enough just to increase class should have a high level of cultural incomes; it is necessary to provide access to capital, active cultural leisure; he/she should quality vocational education, and to streng- advocate certain socio-political positions, then small and medium business. The latter have motivation to achieve definite goals, can be done through the implementation possess individual freedom, etc. The impact of the following measures: redistribution of restrictive factors leads to the fact that of net product by introducing a maximum the means of social mobility work only for (marginal) rate of return; introduction of the wealthy or very gifted people; as for the rest standard for breaking down the growth of net of the population, the level of actual wealth income from the business into the growth of and, consequently, the possibility of transition wages and growth of profit; establishment to a higher social stratum reduces. of the legal foundations for remuneration, Thus, the middle class in Russia and, in including through the establishment of particular, in the Northwestern Federal social standards of remuneration of workers District, has not been formed properly. of basic professions in tariff agreements and However, the social structure of the territorial collective agreements, etc. [3]. Social and community has a group of people (about 29%) labor mobility is essential in the formation of that meets certain requirements, allowing us the middle class. However, its enhancement to refer them to the middle class, although is impeded by the underdeveloped housing it is very heterogeneous; nevertheless, under market, flaws in the system of housing loans certain conditions it can become the basis for and pension system (absence of large pension the formation of a strong middle class. capital), the institute of registration, etc. In To distinguish the category of “middle order to solve these problems, it is necessary class” in the classical sense, Russia should, to reduce barriers to mobility: to improve first of all, overcome a large gap between the the efficiency of the educational system, to rich and the poor. This can be achieved by diversify production, to optimize the budget carrying out the following activities in the sector, to enhance retirement savings, to field of social policy: develop the institutions of civil society, i.e. to – reduction of the gap between extremely conduct an effective socio-economic policy. low and extremely high incomes; Only then the people from lower strata will – increase of the real disposable income have an opportunity to “join” the middle and the minimum wage; class, and the people belonging to the middle – increase of the subsistence level up to stratum will be able to become a full-fledged the value of the real consumer basket; middle class.

126 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

Cited works 1. Avramova E.M. A Middle Class of the Putin Era. Social Sciences and Modernity, 2008, no.1, pp. 28-36. 2. Aristotle. Politics: Monograph. Moscow, 1997. Pp. 148-151. 3. Bobkov V.N., Subetto A.I. Crisis of Education and Science in Russia – the Main Obstacle in its Transition to Innovation Development Strategy. Kostroma: KGU im. Nekrasova, 2010. Pp. 25-31. 4. Bulanova M.A. Social Mobility of Employed Youth in the Region: Sociological Analysis. Power and Administration in the East of Russia, 2011, no.3, pp. 205-212. 5. Gavrov S.N. Socio-Cultural Tradition and Modernization of Russian Society. Moscow: MGUKI, 2002. 146 p. 6. Grigor’ev L., Salmina A., Kuzina O. Russian Middle Class: Analysis of the Structure and Financial Behavior. Moscow: EkonInform, 2009. 148 p. 7. Kuznetsova EMiddle Class: Wesnert Concepts. World Economy and International Relations, 2009, no.2, pp. 19-28. 8. Kovryzhko V.V. Modernization Vector of Post-Crisis Development of the Russian Economy: Ph.D. in Economics Thesis Abstract. Rostov-on-Don, 2010. 207 p. 9. Kostyuk R. Francois Hollande Has Assumed Obligations to France. Available at: http://www.sensusnovus.ru/ analytics/2012/02/09/12723.html (accessed April 24, 2014). 10. Modernization of Russia: Conditions, Prerequisites, Chances: Collection of Articles and Materials. Issue 2. Ed. byV.L. Inozemtseva. Moscow: Tsentr issledovanii postindustrial’nogo obshchestva, 2009. 272 p. 11. Shabunova A.A., Gulin K.A., Lastochkina M.A., Solov’eva T.S. Modernization of the Region’s Economy: Socio- Cultural Aspects: Monograph. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2012. P. 51. 12. Novikov V. Why Should a Minister’s Income Be Equal to That of an Operator of an Automatic Paving Machine. The Neva Time, 2013, November 21. 13. On the Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2020. Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation, 2008, no.47, November 24. 14. Orekhova I.M. Middle Class: Problems of Self-Identification. Theory and Practice of Social Development, 2011, no.8. pp. 63-66 etc. 15. Osipov G.V., Kuznetsov V.N. Sociology and Statehood (Achievements, Problems, Solutions). Moscow: Veche, 2005. 568 p. 16. About the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Vologda Oblast for the Period up to 2020: Resolution of the Vologda Oblast Government of June 28, 2010 No. 739. The Red North, 2010, no.95, August 28. 17. Protsenko A. Middle Class and “Children of the Budget”. Labor, 2014, no.072, May 27. 18. Putin V.V. Russia Muscles Up – the Challenges We Must Rise to Face. The News, 2012, January 16. 19. Senchagov V.K. Economic Security of Russia: General Course: Textbook. Ed. by V.K. Senchagov. 2nd edition. Moscow: Delo, 2005. 896 p. 20. The Middle Class in Contemporary Russia: 10 Years Later. Executive Editors: M.K. Gorshkov, N.E. Tikhonova; In-t sotsiologii RAN. Moscow, 2014. 221 p. 21. Dobrynina E. Why Can’t Our Middle Class Make a Fortune or at least a Decent Living. The Russian Newspaper, 2014, no.6393, May 30. 22. The Middle Class in the BRICS Countries: Problems in the Present and Future. Available at: http://www.dw.de (accessed April 24, 2014). 23. Solov’eva T.S. Social Well-Being of the Middle Class in the Regional Society. Modern Scientific Research and Innovation, 2014, no.6, June. Available at: http://web.snauka.ru/issues/2014/06/34642 (accessed June 03, 2014). 24. Shabunova A.A., Lastochkina M.A., Solov’eva T.S. Stratification and Social Mobility of the Population in the Regions of the NWFD: Preliminary Results of a Study. Collection of Scientific Papers and Reports of ISEDT RAS Academic Council. Issue 9. Vologda, 2014. Pp. 59-136.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 127 Middle class in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District: quantity and reproduction capabilities

25. Obama Pledges Push to Lift Economy for Middle Class. The New York Times, 2013, February 13. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/13/us/politics/obama-delivers-state-of-the-union-address.html (accessed April 25, 2014). 26. Who is the Middle Class? Available at: http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/middleclassoverview.html (accessed April 24, 2014).

References 1. Avramova E.M. Srednii klass epokhi Putina [A Middle Class of the Putin Era]. Obshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost’ [Social Sciences and Modernity], 2008, no.1, pp. 28-36. 2. Aristotle. Politika: Monografiya [Politics: Monograph]. Moscow, 1997. Pp. 148-151. 3. Bobkov V.N., Subetto A.I. Krizis obrazovaniya i nauki v Rossii – glavnyi tormoz v ee perekhode na strategiyu innovatsionnogo razvitiya [Crisis of Education and Science in Russia – the Main Obstacle in its Transition to Innovation Development Strategy]. Kostroma: KGU im. Nekrasova, 2010. Pp. 25-31. 4. Bulanova M.A. Sotsial’naya mobil’nost’ rabotayushchei molodezhi regiona: sotsiologicheskii analiz [Social Mobility of Employed Youth in the Region: Sociological Analysis]. Vlast’ i upravlenie na Vostoke Rossii [Power and Administration in the East of Russia], 2011, no.3, pp. 205-212. 5. Gavrov S.N. Sotsiokul’turnaya traditsiya i modernizatsiya rossiiskogo obshchestva [Socio-Cultural Tradition and Modernization of Russian Society]. Moscow: MGUKI, 2002. 146 p. 6. Grigor’ev L., Salmina A., Kuzina O. Rossiiskii srednii klass: analiz struktury i finansovogo povedeniya [Russian Middle Class: Analysis of the Structure and Financial Behavior]. Moscow: EkonInform, 2009. 148 p. 7. Kuznetsova E. Srednii klass: zapadnye kontseptsii [Middle Class: Wesnert Concepts]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [World Economy and International Relations], 2009, no.2, pp. 19-28. 8. Kovryzhko V.V. Modernizatsionnyi vektor postkrizisnogo razvitiya rossiiskoi ekonomiki: dis. na soisk. uch. st. kand. ekon. nauk: 08.00.01 [Modernization Vector of Post-Crisis Development of the Russian Economy: Ph.D. in Economics Thesis Abstract]. Rostov-on-Don, 2010. 207 p. 9. Kostyuk R. Fransua Olland vzyal na sebya obyazatel’stva pered Frantsiei [Francois Hollande Has Assumed Obligations to France]. Available at: http://www.sensusnovus.ru/analytics/2012/02/09/12723.html (accessed April 24, 2014). 10. Modernizatsiya Rossii: usloviya, predposylki, shansy: sbornik statei i materialov. – Vypusk 2 [Modernization of Russia: Conditions, Prerequisites, Chances: Collection of Articles and Materials. Issue 2]. Ed. byV.L. Inozemtseva. Moscow: Tsentr issledovanii postindustrial’nogo obshchestva, 2009. 272 p. 11. Shabunova A.A., Gulin K.A., Lastochkina M.A., Solov’eva T.S. Modernizatsiya ekonomiki regiona: sotsiokul’turnye aspekty: monografiya [Modernization of the Region’s Economy: Socio-Cultural Aspects: Monograph]. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2012. P. 51. 12. Novikov V. Pochemu ministr dolzhen poluchat’ kak mashinist asfal’toukladchika? [Why Should a Minister’s Income Be Equal to That of an Operator of an Automatic Paving Machine]. Nevskoe vremya [The Neva Time], 2013, November 21. 13. O kontseptsii dolgosrochnogo sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2020 goda [On the Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2020]. Sobranie zakonodatel’stva RF [Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation], 2008, no.47, November 24. 14. Orekhova I.M. Srednii klass: problemy samoidentifikatsii [Middle Class: Problems of Self-Identification]. Teoriya i praktika obshchestvennogo razvitiya [Theory and Practice of Social Development], 2011, no.8. pp. 63-66 etc. 15. Osipov G.V., Kuznetsov V.N. Sotsiologiya i gosudarstvennost’ (dostizheniya, problemy, resheniya) [Sociology and Statehood (Achievements, Problems, Solutions)]. Moscow: Veche, 2005. 568 p.

128 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT T.S. Solov’eva, A.A. Shabunova

16. O strategii razvitiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Vologodskoi oblasti na period do 2020 goda: postanovlenie Pravitel’stva Vologodskoi oblasti ot 28.06.2010 № 739 [About the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Vologda Oblast for the Period up to 2020: Resolution of the Vologda Oblast Government of June 28, 2010 No. 739]. Krasnyi Sever [The Red North], 2010, no.95, August 28. 17. Protsenko A. Srednii klass i “deti byudzheta” [Middle Class and “Children of the Budget”]. Trud [Labor], 2014, no.072, May 27. 18. Putin V.V. Rossiya sosredotachivaetsya: vyzovy, na kotorye my dolzhny otvetit’ [Russia Muscles Up – the Challenges We Must Rise to Face]. Izvestiya [The News], 2012, January 16. 19. Senchagov V.K. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ Rossii: Obshchii kurs: uchebnik [Economic Security of Russia: General Course: Textbook]. Ed. by V.K. Senchagov. 2nd edition. Moscow: Delo, 2005. 896 p. 20. Srednii klass v sovremennoi Rossii: 10 let spustya [The Middle Class in Contemporary Russia: 10 Years Later]. Executive Editors: M.K. Gorshkov, N.E. Tikhonova; In-t sotsiologii RAN. Moscow, 2014. 221 p. 21. Dobrynina E. Pochemu nash srednii klass nikak ne mozhet ozolotit’sya ili zabronzovet’ [Why Can’t Our Middle Class Make a Fortune or at least a decent Living]. Rossiiskaya gazeta [The Russian Newspaper], 2014, no.6393, May 30. 22. Srednii klass stran BRIKS: problemy v nastoyashchem i budushchem [The Middle Class in the BRICS Countries: Problems in the Present and Future]. Available at: http://www.dw.de (accessed April 24, 2014). 23. Solov’eva T.S. Sotsial’noe samochuvstvie srednego klassa v regional’nom sotsiume [Social Well-Being of the Middle Class in the Regional Society]. Sovremennye nauchnye issledovaniya i innovatsii [Modern Scientific Research and Innovation], 2014, no.6, June. Available at: http://web.snauka.ru/issues/2014/06/34642 (accessed June 03, 2014). 24. Shabunova A.A., Lastochkina M.A., Solov’eva T.S. Stratifikatsiya i sotsial’naya mobil’nost’ naseleniya v regionakh SZFO: predvaritel’nye rezul’taty issledovaniya [Stratification and Social Mobility of the Population in the Regions of the NWFD: Preliminary Results of a Study]. Sbornik nauchnykh dokladov i soobshchenii Uchenogo soveta ISERT RAN [Collection of Scientific Papers and Reports of ISEDT RAS Academic Council]. Issue 9. Vologda, 2014. Pp. 59-136. 25. Obama Pledges Push to Lift Economy for Middle Class. The New York Times, 2013, February 13. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/13/us/politics/obama-delivers-state-of-the-union-address.html (accessed April 25, 2014). 26. Who is the Middle Class? Available at: http://www.pbs.org/now/politics/middleclassoverview.html (accessed April 24, 2014).

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 129 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

UDC 314.5/.6(470-17), LBC 60.7(21) © Popova L.A., Barashkova A.S. Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia *

Larisa Alekseevna POPOVA Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Deputy Director for Science, Institute for Socio-Economic and Energy Problems of the North, Komi Science Centre, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (26, Kommunisticheskaya Street, Syktyvkar, 167982, Russia, [email protected])

Anastasiya Spiridonovna BARASHKOVA Ph.D. in Economics, Leading Research Associate, Scientific-Research Institute of Regional Economy of the North, North-Eastern Federal University in Yakutsk (2, Petrovsky Street, Yakutsk, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article deals with the mechanism of modern demographic development in Russia’s northern regions. The article studies the dynamics of marriage processes in the North in the post-war period, and reveals the current specifics of marriage and family relations. The authors analyze in more detail the situation in the two big northern republics: the Komi Republic and the Republic of (Yakutia). They identify factors that determined a significant decrease of marriage rate in the 1990s and the relative normalization of marital and family processes in recent years. The article outlines the main directions of demographic policies in the northern regions.

* The article was prepared within the project of the competitive programs of interregional and interdepartmental fundamental research conducted by the Ural Branch of RAS “Demographic development of the Northern regions of Russia in the conditions of socio-economic transformation” (No. 12-C-7-1009).

130 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.A. Popova, A.S. Barashkova

Key words: Northern regions, population reproduction, marriage and family relations, level and structure of nuptiality, demographic policy.

Demographic studies pay great attention hand, are different in their own specificity, to the processes of fertility and mortality. mostly due to the ethnic composition of the At the same time, the research into the population and the degree of completion development of matrimonial relations is of the demographic transition in the titular also an integral part of the demographic ethnic groups. analysis: family circulation is included The current patterns of demographic in a broad interpretation of the concept development in the North are the following: “reproduction of the population”. The significant amounts of the population decline presence of certain forms of marriage and due to large-scale migration outflows family, and consequently, relations between over the past two and a half decades, and, men and women, between spouses, between consequently, higher paces of ageing of yet parents and children provides stability to younger population of the North [2]. the process of human reproduction and its The natural movement of the population continuous renewal [1, p. 100]. in the northern territories should be also What is more, all demographic processes assessed, despite the apparent relative are interconnected and interdependent. The success, reflected directly in the dynamics trends to develop marriage and family of the natural increase indicator in these relations influence not only fertility, but also regions during the demographic crisis mortality and the extent of migration mobility period. In some northern regions the natural of the population. population loss began later than in Russia in In the midst of the protracted demographic general and ended earlier. For example, in crisis, from which the country is only just the Komi Republic the natural decline was emerging, but already anticipating a structural first observed in 1993, a year later than in the reduction in the birth rate, the study of modern country. And in 2011, on the contrary, one regional specificity of mating behavior of the year earlier than in Russia, the republic was population is of undoubted interest. the first to witness a positive natural increase, This article considers the features of in urban areas – even in 2008. At the same matrimonial relations in the northern re- time, in the depopulated northern regions, gions of Russia (the areas of the Far North the total rate of natural decline, as a rule, was and equated localities). It pays special significantly less than the average, with the attention to two large national republics of only exception being the Republic of Karelia Komi and Sakha (Yakutia), which, on the and the Arkhangelsk Oblast. one hand, are characterized by a number In some Northern regions only certain of common patterns of demographic territories experienced natural decline over development in the North and, on the other time. For example, in the Sakha (Yakutia)

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 131 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

Republic depopulation was first recorded of Karelia and the Arkhangelsk Oblast, in 1993 in Aldansky District and in 1995 in also characterized by the young population Ust-Maysky District. In 2006 eight districts structure, reveals a negative tendency. out of 35 experienced the decline [3]. However, the Republic of Karelia since 2003 What is more, some northern regions has had different and low total fertility rate, had a stable natural increase during the i.e. the significant decrease in the period of depopulation period in Russia. They were the depopulation has been predetermined by mortality and fertility. following: Secondly, the higher level of fertility is of the Arkhangelsk Oblast in the Northwes- characteristic of the majority of indigenous tern Federal District; Khanty-Mansi and Northern Peoples due to the incomplete Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous in the demographic transition: almost all regions ; the Republic with a positive natural increase are autonomies 1 in the Siberian Federal District ; the Sakha with a noticeable percentage of the indigenous (Yakutia) Republic as a whole, Chukotka peoples of the North. Autonomous Okrug and Kamchatka Thirdly, it is “export of mortality” from (since 2007) in the Far Eastern Federal the North to southern regions. To the greatest District. In Usinsk Urban Okrug of the Komi extent, it is characteristic of territories with Republic there was natural growth during the the resource-orientated economy. It leads whole period of depopulation. to the increased life expectancy of the There are several reasons for such population of Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo- processes. First, it is a younger age structure Nenets Autonomous okrugs, as well as of the population (table 1), characteristic of Usinsky District of the Komi Republic. the North. Its maintenance in the conditions These rates are ensured both by the low of the long-term negative migration balance mortality rate from endogenous causes is caused not only by age potential of the among men of working age due to significant population, accumulated due to long- territorial rotation and by the low mortality term migration inflows, and by inflow and rate among older people who often leave the outflow of different age groups threads North. In all other Northern regions the rates and also by relatively high levels of fertility of life expectancy of the population are lower of the indigenous peoples of the North. than in Russia as a whole. Ceteris paribus, the young age structure Thus, the lower depth of the demogra- preconditions relatively high fertility and phic crisis in the Russian North is a mere for- low mortality. Therefore, the increased mality due to the young age structure of amount of total mortality in the Republic the population, incomplete demographic transition among the indigenous peoples 1 Unfortunately, there is no possibility to analyze the of the North and “export of mortality” to situation in Taymyr (Dolgano-Nenets) and Evenk Autonomous southern regions. In fact, the demographic okrugs, as the information on only the overall demographic situation in has been recently provided. sphere in northern regions is more troubled.

132 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.A. Popova, A.S. Barashkova

Table 1. Share of the population under and of working age in the Northern regions of Russia, according to the population census, % [4; 5; 6]

1989 2002 2010 Region Under Of working Under Of working Under Of working working age age working age age working age age

Russian Federation 24.5 57.0 18.1 61.3 16.2 61.6

European North

Republic of Karelia 25.6 58.4 18.0 62.9 16.0 61.2

Komi Republic 28.0 62.1 19.8 66.1 17.7 64.7

Arkhangelsk Oblast 26.6 58.0 18.7 62.7 16.7 61.6 including Nenets Autonomous Okrug 30.9 61.4 25.4 63.0 22.7 63.0

Murmansk Oblast 27.4 64.0 18.1 68.4 16.2 65.5

Asian North

Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug 33.2 63.3 22.8 70.4 20.4 69.0

Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug 32.8 65.2 24.9 70.5 22.0 70.2

Tuva Republic 37.3 54.9 33.9 59.8 30.5 59.7

Sakha (Yakutia)Republic 32.5 61.0 26.5 63.5 23.3 64.0

Kamchatka Krai 28.2 66.5 18.8 68.9 17.1 65.6

Magadan Oblast 29.4 66.9 19.1 69.8 16.8 66.5

Sakhalin Oblast 27.2 62.7 18.6 66.5 16.7 63.7

Chukotka Autonomous Okrug 30.6 67.5 23.2 70.1 22.4 67.3

The critical demographic problems of connection of the incomplete demographic northern territories are the following: low transition among the indigenous peoples life expectancy of the population, especially of the North with the adverse qualitative of men, and especially in rural areas; characteristics of fertility (particularly, with the young age structure of the dying and the significant percentage of non-marital the significant proportion of mortality births) and high levels of infant morta- from external causes and diseases of exo- lity [7]. genous etiology; low fertility rates in tra- Matrimonial relations in the North can ditionally Russian northern regions and be estimated as adverse. Due to a younger age territories with the completed demographic structure, a high percentage of the working transition among indigenous ethnic groups; age population, which is also the age of

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 133 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

marital activity, the northern regions have an In the Republic of Karelia and the increased crude marriage rate (tab. 2). Arkhangelsk Oblast the crude marriage rate However, in some areas (for example, in is consistently below the national average the Komi Republic, Nenets Autonomous rate. In the Tuva Republic its value is Okrug, the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic) the significantly lower than the national average level of marriage rate is currently slightly level. On the one hand, it is caused by the higher than the Russian average, and it is fact that, unlike other territories of the Far often even lower. North and equated localities, the young age

Table 2. Dynamics of the crude marriage rate of the population of the RF Northern territories in 2000–2011, marriages per 1000 persons [9; 10]

Year Region 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Russian Federation 6.2 6.9 7.1 7.6 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.5 9

European North

Republic of Karelia 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.0 6.7 7.2 7.7 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.8 9

Komi Republic 5.7 7.3 7.3 7.7 6.2 7.5 7.7 8.7 8.0 8.6 9.0 10

Arkhangelsk Oblast 5.2 6.4 6.6 7.3 6.0 7.5 7.6 8.9 7.9 8.4 8.9 9

including

Nenets Autonomous 6.2 7.0 7.3 6.9 5.1 6.3 7.6 8.9 8.4 8.0 8.1 8 Okrug

Murmansk Oblast 7.0 7.9 7.9 8.7 7.4 8.4 8.5 9.3 8.6 8.9 9.3 9

Asian North

Khanty-Mansi 8.7 10.8 10.4 10.0 8.4 9.7 10.5 11.5 10.6 10.7 11.3 12 Autonomous Okrug

Yamalo-Nenets 8.4 9.9 9.9 10.1 8.6 9.2 8.9 10.1 8.8 9.4 9.8 10 Autonomous Okrug

Tuva Republic 3.7 4.9 5.4 6.6 5.2 5.3 5.6 8.7 8.7 8.5 6.8 7

Sakha (Yakutia) 6.1 7.7 7.8 8.2 6.8 7.4 7.4 8.4 7.8 8.5 8.7 9 Republic

Kamchatka Krai 7.1 8.0 8.5 8.7 7.5 8.9 9.0 9.6 9.5 10.1 10.3 10

Magadan Oblast 7.4 8.3 8.9 9.0 7.4 8.8 9.1 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.6 10

Sakhalin Oblast 6.2 6.9 7.6 8.0 7.2 8.2 8.8 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.9 9

Chukotka Krai 6.9 7.8 9.7 9.3 9.5 10.0 9.7 10.0 9.7 10.1 9.1 7

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structure of the Tuva population (with a high migration improved the age-gender and percentage of children ages) is characterized marital structure of the population in the by a relatively low, below the national average northern territories significantly, setting proportion of the working age population apart from the current situation in the (see table 1). But, in addition, the low country. crude marriage rate correlates with a high In the Komi Republic, for instance, in percentage of non-marital births that is more 1945 the crude marriage rate was also more than twice higher than the national average than two times higher than in the prewar 1940 – level and with a low level of crude divorce 10.7 and 4.6 per 1000 persons, respectively. rates. It is obvious that this region has very However, it continued to rise at a rather high strong features of matrimonial relations of the rate during the first postwar decade. indigenous population that have a negative The most significant growth was in the impact on the level of official regulation of first half of the 1950s, when there was a maximum migration rate in the republic. marriage rates. Having reached the peak (28.4‰ in 1955), The trends in marriage processes in the apparently, due to “Komsomol” weddings in northern regions are close enough to the the regions of new development, the marriage national average; still there is some time rate in the Komi Republic began to decline lag. gradually. For three decades this trend was slow The national average decline in the and gradual, changing only at certain periods, marriage rate began almost immediately primarily due to unfavorable changes in the after the war, after a significant, but very age structure of the population. So, the small short compensatory rise. number of people, born during the war, and In 1946, the crude marriage rate of the the migration outflow resulted in low values Russian population doubled the pre-war of the crude marriage rate of the popula- value; however, in the conditions of signi- tion in the Komi Republic in the 1960s – ficant postwar gender imbalance, the early 1970s. marriage processes experienced a decline Obviously, the same was true for the Sakha since the following year [8, p. 18-20]. (Yakutia) Republic, as by the early 1980s the This time there was a fundamentally values of the crude marriage rate in these different situation in the northern regions. republics had almost equaled to the national Already in the pre-war period the need to level (fig. 1). The relatively young age struc- attract natural resources in the economic ture of the population of the considered turnover had led to the influx of population regions indicates a greater problem of the to the North. development of the official marriage and However, in the first postwar decade family relations during this period. the amount of migration growth was The first half of the 1980s in the Northern unprecedented. As the majority of migrants regions observed some improvement in were young, mostly unmarried men, the marital processes, especially, the Sakha

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 135 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

Figure 1. Dynamics of the crude marriage rate of the population in the Russian Federation, the Komi Republic and the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic in 1980–2011, marriages per 1000 persons

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0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004 2005 2006 2003 2002 2001 1999 2000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1991 1992 1993 1990 1988 1989 1987 1985 1986 1984 1982 1983 1981 1980

Russian Federation Komi Republic Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

(Yakutia) Republic where in 1980–1987 the crude marriage rate in the republic exceeded increase of the crude marriage rate amounted the all-Russian level. However, in the second to 37.3%. Apparently, this was a consequence half of the 1980s, the decline rate in its level of the 1981 Regulation “On measures to in the Komi Republic increased significantly strengthen support for families with children” (fig. 2). [11], which played a prominent role in the The main reason, like two decades ago, normalization of the demographic situation was a decrease in the share of the population in the country in the first half of the 1980s, of the marriageable age due to the low birth especially in the regions with higher fertility rate of the 1960–1970s and another migration rates. outflow. And at the end of the 1980s marital There was no noticeable growth in the processes were influenced by changing marriage rate in the Komi Republic; there standards of marriage and family behavior due was rather stabilization of its level. Although to sexual revolution, which had been popular it should be noted that in 1981–1983 the in the West two decades ago. Democratization republic had the highest indicators since of social norms, regulating gender relations, the mid-1960s (10.8 marriages per 1000 led to a gradual shift from traditional marriage persons). What is more, almost till 1991 the and family norms, causing earlier sex life,

136 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.A. Popova, A.S. Barashkova

Figure 2. Dynamics of the crude marriage rate in the Komi Republic in 1980–2011, marriages per 1000 persons

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0 2011 2008 2009 2010 2007 2006 2005 2003 2004 2002 2001 2000 1998 1999 1997 1995 1996 1994 1992 1993 1990 1991 1987 1988 1989 1985 1986 1982 1983 1984 1980 1981

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widespread premarital sexual relations, Therefore, the female indicators of the trial and de facto marriages, the increase in marriage rate in the Komi Republic are the number of marriages caused by out of traditionally higher than the male ones, wedlock pregnancy, the increase in the share especially in rural areas. of non-marital births occurring in de facto However, during the 1980s and early 1990s marital unions and in single-parent families, there was noticeable improvement in gender Besides, people started to marry and have proportions in the most active marriageable children earlier. ages: if in 1981 there were 63 women per Due to a younger age structure of the 100 men of 20–29 in rural areas, after 10 marriage rate half of men under 24 got years there already 76 women. As a result, at married in the early 1990s. One should pay the beginning of 1990s the Komi Republic attention to quite a significant increase in the observed a significant reduction in the marriage rate of rural men of 20–24 years in difference between the levels of the marriage the republic during this period. It indicates rate of rural men and women. Mitigation of normalization of marriage processes in gender disparities in the age of maximum rural areas due to mitigation of the problem marriage activity, leading to the convergence “shortage of brides”. Significant outnumber of male and female marriage potentials, of men of the age of the maximum marriage further continued. So, ten years later in 2001 rate complicates their activity on the marriage there were 89 women per 100 rural male of market. 20–29 years.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 137 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

However, the early 1990s experienced the The instability of the socio-economic significant decrease in the level of the situation and raising inflation forced many marriage potential fulfilment due to severe potential wedding couples to postpone the deterioration of the socio-economic situation. wedding. Evidently, the 1992 recession was Therefore, men failed to take full advantage largely associated with the inevitable decline of the improved gender ratio on the marriage in the marriage rate due to the leap year. May market. and the leap year are not popular for marriage The dramatic decline in living standards among people. The year before a number of due to the crisis in the reforming Russian people get married in December not to start economy resulted in postponement of a family in a leap year. demographic events in the early 1990s. It However, the monthly number of should be noted that the marriage rate is the marriages in 1992 discloses that the most least subject to significant changes of external significant reduction in the marriage activity conditions. Its level is greatly influenced occurred from April, when the marriages, by conflicts and crises. Therefore, almost planned already in 1992, were registered. instantly the marriage processes reacted to At the same time, the figures show that the deteriorated socio-economic situation: in the period in the marriage activity of the 1992 the reduction in its level everywhere had population in the Komi and Sakha (Yakutia) a disastrous nature. At the same time, in the republics has been reduced by half since postwar period the level of the crude marriage that time. The decline in the marriage rate rate of the population in the Komi Republic is now observed not once in four years, and exceeded the national average due to the in each even-numbered year. In Russia as a younger age structure of the population; whole the four-year period remained mostly since 1992 it has become stably lower than unchanged. the all-Russian level, despite the fact that the In the 1990s the marriage rate level in the age structure of the population has still been Komi Republic and the Sakha (Yakutia) relatively young. Republic experienced fluctuations determined In the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic the by the descending trend: each subsequent marriage rate, having increased considerably recession was deeper than the previous one during the 1980s, remained quite high almost and the increase became increasingly small. till 1991. However, it fell sharply since the In the first decade of the economic reform beginning of socio-economic reforms. In (1992–2001) the average crude marriage rate 1992 the crude marriage rate decreased by in the Komi Republic was more than one 20.5%. In 1991–1996 the decline amounted third below the level of the previous decade to 43.2%; in 1998, with the minimum crude (1982–1991). In rural areas of the republic it marriage rate being recorded (6.6 marriages was reduced by half, in urban – by more than per 1000 persons), there was a twofold 30%. There was the same trend in the Sakha decrease, compared to 1991 (fig. 3). (Yakutia) Republic. In urban areas the decline

138 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.A. Popova, A.S. Barashkova

Figure 3. Dynamics of the crude marriage rate in the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic in 1980–2011, marriages per 1000 persons

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0 2010 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2001 1996 1997 1993 1994 1995 1992 1989 1990 1991 1988 1985 1986 1987 1984 1983 1980 1981 1982

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was exactly the same as in the Komi Republic; to publish some demographic data (the in rural areas it was not as significant as in list was expanded in 2006; Figure 2 clearly Komi (37%). demonstrates it: crude marriage rates Another indicator of the reduced marriage separately for urban and rural population potential of the population in the 1990s is the in the Komi Republic have recently become dynamics revealing the probability to get unavailable for researchers). So, it is married by a certain age. It is calculated impossible to assess the reduction in the by summing the age-gender marriage rates probability to marry for the first time in by a certain age on the basis of a total general during this decade. demographic factor. Such calculations are However, this assessment can be carried only performed for the Komi Republic out for the initial period of socio-economic due to scarce data. At the 2001 marriage reforms. In the Komi Republic in 1991 75% rate 76% of men and 81% of women could of men and 90% of women could marry for get married by the age of 50 (including re- the fist time by the age of 50, while in the marriage), while in 1991 98% of men and middle of the decade (1995) 64% of men 121% of women could. Unfortunately, the and 68% women could. At the same time, calculation of many demographic indicators since the beginning of the 1990s all odd- after 1996 is impossible as Rosstat stopped numbered years have been characterized

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 139 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

by the increased marriage activity of the The low marriage rate in rural areas of the population, so the 2001 and 1995 indicators Komi Republic was mostly caused by reflect not the most unfavorable situation of significant ageing of the rural population. those years. However, since 1994 the crude marriage rate Marriage potential of the population is in rural women has dropped even below the higher nowadays. The figures reveal that in city level, which was the only rural indicator the early 2000s in the Komi Republic, the of the marriage rate, compared favorably Sakha (Yakutia) Republic and in the whole with the urban. As it has been already country, there was an increase in the marriage mentioned, such a good indicator was based rate: the last decade demonstrated a clear on very favorable gender ratio on the marriage increasing trend. Since 2004 the northern market. “Shortage of brides”, existing in the republics have been again characterized by rural areas of the republic, has traditionally the four-year period of marriage activity. At determined both the reduced marriage rate the end of the decade, the marriage rate in of the male population and the increased one the Komi Republic was equal almost to the of the female. 1991 level, and in 2011 – to the 1987 level, Over the past three decades the gender close to the maximum level of the early 1980s. ratio in rural areas of the Komi Republic has In the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic in 2011 the levelled off significantly, contributing to the marriage rate equaled the 1992–1993 level, convergence of male and female marriage but the increase was also very noticeable. potentials. Apparently, in many respects this growth However, their realization decreased in was a result of the improved age structure of the 1990s considerably. Despite the decline marriage cohorts. Numerous generations, in the crude marriage rate and the total born in the middle and a second half of the marriage rate of women below the urban 1980s, attained marriageable age. However, level not only of the crude marriage rate, the the state demographic initiatives to support first marriage rate of the rural population in family fertility have contributed enough in the Komi Republic still remained above the recent years. urban. If in the urban areas 62% of men and Figure 2 shows that the crude marriage 66% of women could marry for the first time rate in the rural areas of the Komi Repub- in 1995, in the rural ones 69% of men and lic started to lag behind the urban ones 74% of women could. Hence, rural people significantly in the second half of the 1980s. realized their marriage potential better. The In the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic where the higher marriage rate of the urban population marriage rate in the rural territories has was determined by the re-marriage rate, a been traditionally below the urban ones, in consequence of the high divorce rate. the second half of the 1980s this difference Thus, the situation with the official between urban and rural areas increased marriage rate in the rural areas could be (fig. 3). considered more favorable than in the urban.

140 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.A. Popova, A.S. Barashkova

However, it is necessary to study a more of registered marriages. The increased significant reduction in the marriage rate government attention to demographic among rural people. In our opinion, it can problems was encouraged by the Presidential be considered as an indicator of changes in Address to the Federal Assembly in 2006. patterns of marriage and family behavior As the great importance was attached to of the Russian population in the second the normalization of matrimonial relations, half of the 1980s due to the spread of de registered marriages began to strengthen their facto marriages. De facto marriages, unlike positions again. extramarital sexual relations without stable The important point is a ratio of re- family relationship that are more spread in the marriage rates among women and men. city, become more popular in the rural areas, Usually men remarry more often than and, especially, in the Komi Republic, where women. Researchers usually explain such indigenous ethnic groups comprise more psychological factors as women’s higher than a half of the rural population. They have demands to a new partner if they have had some specifics of marriage and family children from the first marriage, low behavior, recognizing de facto marriages competitiveness of women with children along with registered ones. It is obvious that on the marriage market, etc. At the same de facto marriages came into wide practice in time, insufficient attention is paid to gender the second half of the 1980s–early 1990s in proportions. However, apparently, more the village again as in the 1920–1930s. Later frequent re-marriages among men are caused they became typical for the urban population, by a greater number of women. In the Komi especially for re-marriages. Republic gender disparity in favor of men The lack of legal regulation of marital results in a high value of brides of any marital relations, traditionally more common for status on the marriage market, that is why re-marriages had involved the spread of de the above pattern has not been observed until facto marriages since the end of the 1980s. Till recently. the early 1990s there was an increase in the But since the beginning of the 2000s in the share of re-marriages in all age groups except conditions of significant alignment of gender the youngest. This growth was especially vivid proportions and numerical predominance of in the urban areas where for a long time the men in the most active breeding ages the share of re-marriages in their total number share of re-marriage among men in the had been one and a half – two times higher Komi Republic has exceeded the female rate. than their share in the rural areas. But since Obviously, women’s increased demands to the early 1990s in the rural areas and since a new husband with children and reduced the middle of the decade in the urban areas competitiveness of women with children on the share of re-marriages declined and then the marriage market also play an important stabilized. Only recently (in 2007–2008) this role in distribution of re-marriages among share has again grown in the overall structure men and women.

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As it has been already mentioned, in the At the same time, public opinion is late 1980s–early 1990s on the background of increasingly sympathetic to de facto the indicators decrease in almost all age marriages. Their number grows, putting groups often people under 20 got married. aside registered marriages. However, in the first half of the 1990s this In other words, the recent increase in the tendency came to an end. average marriageable age, the significant lag So, in the Komi Republic the highest of the rural marriage rate, stabilization (until percentage of marriages among people under recently) of the re-marriages share and the 18 was recorded in 1992 (1.2% of men and high share of non-marital births (about 6.3% of women), and among people under a half is registered at the joint request of 24 in 1993 (53.8% and 64.2, respectively). the parents) reveal wide spread of de facto Since 1994 the decrease in the average marriages. Quite significant orientation of marriageable age in the Komi, the Sakha young people on unregistered marriage, (Yakutia) republics and Russia, as a whole, early premarital sexual relations on the changed in its growth. The increase in the background of the low contraceptive culture share of marriages among people over 25 has and contraceptive responsibility contribute been recently very vivid. Apparently, due to to further strengthening of alternative forms the government and society’s attention to of family organization. the family issues people who have delayed Popularity of de facto marriages is con- their marriage for some reason get married firmed by the comparison of the results of nowadays. As a result, in 2009–2011 in the 1994, 2002 and 2010 censuses. So, during Komi Republic the share of marriages among the second half of the 1990s and the early men over 25 exceeded 72%, among women 2000s, the share of men of the marriageable almost reached 60%. age in a de facto marriage increased from On the other hand, taking into account 6.3% in 1994 to 8.7% in 2002 and to 12.6% that in most developed countries the in 2010, the share of women from 5.5 to reduction in the average marriageable age 7.6% and to 10.7%, respectively [12, 13] in changed into its growth in the early 1970s the Komi Republic. after the sexual revolution, one may consider It should be noted that in the Komi this as a natural long-term historical trend, Republic the share of the population in de which can involve a more significant facto marriages was significantly above the reduction in the marriage rate and a national average of the same indicator. further increase in the level of the single The de facto marriage rate of the Russian state. Apparently, people retreat from the population in general even in 2002 was lower traditional model of early marriage. The (6.1% of men and 5.1% of women over 16 sexual life of young people begins earlier, who reported their marital status) than this and the marriageable age rises. rate the Komi Republic in the mid 1990s.

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In Russia in 2010 the de facto marriage Besides, not all cases of non-marital rate for men and women was 8.4 and 6.9%, births fall within the statistics of illegitimate respectively [6], that was lower than in births, which in the Komi Republic in 2011 the Komi Republic in 2002 In the Sakha was 32.7% of births and 41.8% in rural (Yakutia) Republic the de facto marriage rate areas, even after six years of decline, i.e. the was also higher than in the whole country. level of illegitimate birth was, in fact, even The share of men in a de facto marriage higher than that, reflected in the official increased in the republic in 2002–2010 from statistics. 8.0 to 10.6%, the share of women – from 7.3 Regulation of de facto marriages often to 9.6% [6, 12]. ends the process of demographic development In addition, registered marriages are often of the family. The study has disclosed that in preceded by either de facto marriages or approximately 40% of marriages, registered premarital pregnancy, with it being more or during the decade, children were not born less stable premarital relationships between later: either they had been born by future future spouses. For a more detailed study of spouses before marriage (more than 20% some aspects of the official marriage rate, not of marriages), or were not planned due to reflected in the current statistics, at the end the age of spouses, the presence of children of 2002 we conducted the study of all cases of from previous marriages, etc. (almost 20% marriage registration in 3 rural settlements of of marriages). the Komi Republic in 1992–2001 [14]. The Thus, in the last two decades along with criterion to select these rural settlements was the officially regulated form of the family, de the possibility to get reliable retrospective facto marriages have been widespread in information. In small communities, where Russia, with only part of them being registered everyone knows each other, additional later. This is true for the Komi and Sakha information can be obtained from interviews (Yakutia) republics to a greater extent. And with the experts, registering demographic even it is more characteristic of the Tuva events. Republic that has traditionally had low The study has showed that in the period marriage rates and a very high level of extra- under consideration at least in the rural areas marital fertility. of the Komi Republic the majority of regis- It is known that not only single-parent tered marriages were preceded by de facto families but also de facto marriages are marriages of varying duration. More than characterized by a smaller number of children 20% of marriages were registered after the in the family. Moreover, de facto marriages are birth of children. The great share of marriages less stable in terms of divorce rates: obstacles was registered due to premarital pregnancy of to the official registration of the relationship the bride (30–45%). It is considered to be one strengthen centrifugal tendencies in unstable of the factors of instable family life. unregistered marriage.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 143 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

It predetermines lower fertility rates. these negative aspects are amplified due to In other words, the family structure of the more substantial disorganization of family past two decades predetermines low birth life. rates. It is caused by large migration (non- The increased government attention to indigenous and, especially, non-permanent the problems in the demographic sphere in population has lower levels of social control 2006–2007 led to betterment in the processes and self-control, that is why migrants increase of officially registered marriages. In the likelihood of different kinds of deviations, early 2000s the growth in the marriage rate including in the matrimonial sphere), and was caused by the improvement of the age by some features of matrimonial behavior structure of marriage cohorts in recent years, of indigenous peoples (residual effects of recently it has been intensified by “postponed polygamy as in the Tuva Republic, traditionally marriages” – older age at marriage. The loyal attitude to the illegitimate birth as in decline in the share of non-marital births the Komi Republic, or disorganization of since 2006 indicates the enhanced situation matrimonial relations on the basis of long- in this sphere. term marginalization of some indigenous This reveals that trends in the development peoples of the North). of marriage and family relationships can have To sum it up, we emphasize the critical a positive impact. That is why it is necessary demographic problems of the northern to promote the family values revival, expand regions that require intensified regional measures to strengthen the institution measures of demographic policy. of family and moral traditions of family • Almost all northern territories of relationships. Russia face a very acute problem of mortality, For northern regions of Russia the particularly, premature male mortality from objective to consolidate the institution of the external causes, especially, in rural areas. family, revive and deepen spiritual and moral Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Auto- traditions of family relationships is very nomous okrugs are not an exception: life important. Indeed, in many respects the expectancy of the population there is also crisis of family values and prevalence of very far behind developed countries. extrafamilial interests are responsible for • In most northern territories of Russia the low level of reproductive attitudes it is necessary to significantly reduce infant of the population, their insufficient mortality: in the republics of Tuva and Sakha implementation, and for the fact that fertility (Yakutia), in Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets and is becoming more and more “extrafamilial Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, Kamchatka activity”. And in the northern regions Krai, the Magadan and Sakhalin oblasts.

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• In the Republic of Karelia, the Mur- • In the Magadan Oblast, Chukotka mansk and Arkhangelsk oblasts it is highly and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous okrugs the relevant to improve fertilit y. In recent years, issues to improve stability of the family are the quantitative aspects of fertility have topical. become urgent in Kamchatka Krai and the • In the Tuva Republic it would be better Magadan Oblast. to strengthen moral traditions of family • In the republics of Karelia, Komi, relations and improve official regulation of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Arkhangelsk Oblast matrimonial processes. attention should be paid to the promotion In our opinion, for the regions of the of marriage and births in a registered Russian North the demographic policy marriage. objective should be defined as creation of • The extremely significant level of conditions for sustainable and high quality extra-marital fertility, correlated with high development of the population, provision values of the infant mortality rate, charac- of stable natural growth based on the con- teristic of the Tuva Republic, Nenets and vergence of the life expectancy rate in the Chukotka Autonomous okrugs, Kamchatka region with that in the country, enhancement Krai, the Magadan and Sakhalin oblasts and improvement of the quality structure of challenges these regions to improve the fertility, based on the strengthened moral quality of birth. traditions of family relationships.

Cited works

1. Volkov A.G. Family – the Object of Demography. M: Thought, 1986. 2. Popova L.A., Zorina E.N. Northern Version of the Russian Model of the Demographic Aging. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends and Forecast, 2013, no.2(26), pp. 111 125. 3. Mostahova T., Veselkova I. Improving the Management of Demographic Processes in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).Federalism, 2009, no.2, pp. 169-178. 4. Population Age Structure in RSFSR according to All Union Population Census in 1989. Moscow, 1990. 5. Age and Sexual Structure and Marriage Status. Results of the AllRussian Population Census in 2002: In 14 Volumes. Volume 2. Federal State Statistics Service. Moscow, 2004. 6. National Census of 2010. Available at: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/perepis_itogi1612. htm (accessed May 31, 2013). 7. Popova L.A. Features of the demographic development of the Russian northern territories. Russia and the modern world, 2010, no.4. pp. 178190. 8. Sinelnikov A.B. Marriages and Fertility in the USSR. Moscow: Nauka, 1989. 9. Demographic Yearbook of the Komi Republic. 2010. Syktyvkar, 2011. Pp. 166 167.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 145 Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia

10. The Central Statistical Database. Available at: http://cbsd.gks.ru/ (date accessed 31.05.2013). 11. Resolution of the Central Committee of the CPSU, USSR Council of Ministers No. 235 of January 22, 1981 “On measures to strengthen public support for families with children”. Collection of the USSR Resolutions, 1981, no.13, p.75. 12. Age and Sex and Marital Status. Results of the All in 2002: in 14 Volumes. Volume 2. Federal State Statistics Service. Moscow, 2004. 13. Marital Status and Education. The Results of the Population Census in 2010. Komi Republic. Volume 2: Statistical Collection. Komistat. Syktyvkar, 2012. 14. Popova L.A. Modern Features of the Formation and Development of the Family in the Komi Republic. Family in Russia: Scientific Social and Political Journal, 2006, no.1, pp. 25 39.

References

1. Volkov A.G. Sem’ya – ob”ekt demografii [Family – the Object of Demography]. Moscow: Mysl’, 1986. 2. Popova L.A., Zorina E.N. Severnyi variant rossiiskoi modeli demograficheskogo stareniya [Russian Model of Population Ageing (in the Case of the Northern Regions)]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 2013, no.2(26), pp. 111-125. 3. Mostakhova T., Veselkova I. Sovershenstvovanie upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami v Res-publike Sakha (Yakutiya) [On the Improvement of Demographic Processes Governing in Sakha-Yakutiya Republic]. Federalizm [Federalism], 2009, no.2. pp. 169-178. 4. Vozrastnoi sostav naseleniya RSFSR po dannym Vsesoyuznoi perepisi naseleniya 1989 g [Age Structure of the RSFSR Population according to the All-Union Population Census of 1989)]. Moscow, 1990. 5. Vozrastno-polovoi sostav i sostoyanie v brake (Itogi Vserossiiskoi pe-repisi naseleniya 2002 g.: v 14 t. T. 2) [Age and Sex Composition and Marital Status (The Results of the All-Russian Population Census of 2002: in 14 Volumes. Volume 2]. Feder. sluzhba gos. statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service]. Moscow, 2004. 6. Vserossiiskaya perepis’ naseleniya 2010 [All-Russian Population Census of 2010]. Available at: http://www.gks. ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/perepis_itogi1612.htm (data obrashcheniya: 31.05.2013). 7. Popova L.A. Osobennosti demograficheskogo razvitiya severnykh territorii Rossii [Specifics of Demographic development of the Northern Territories of Russia]. Rossiya i sovremennyi mir [Russia and Modern World], 2010, no.4, pp 178-190. 8. Sinel’nikov A.B. Brachnost’ i rozhdaemost’ v SSSR [Marriage and Fertility in the USSR]. Moscow: Nauka, 1989. 9. Demograficheskii ezhegodnik Respubliki Komi. 2010 [Demographic Yearbook of the Republic of Komi. 2010]. Syktyvkar, 2011. Pp. 166-167. 10. Tsentral’naya baza statisticheskikh dannykh [Central Statistical Database]. Available at: http://cbsd.gks.ru/ (data obrashcheniya: 31.05.2013).

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11. Postanovlenie TsK KPSS, Sovmina SSSR № 235 ot 22 yanvarya 1981 g. “O merakh po usileniyu gosudarstvennoi pomoshchi sem’yam, imeyushchim detei” [Resolution of the Central Committee of the CPSU, USSR Council of Ministers No. 235 of January 22, 1981 “On measures to strengthen public support for families with children”]. SP SSSR [Collection of Resolutions of the USSR], 1981, no.13, p.75. 12. Vozrastno-polovoi sostav i sostoyanie v brake (Itogi Vserossiiskoi pe-repisi naseleniya 2002 g.: v 14 t. T. 2) [Age and Sex Composition and Marital Status (The Results of the All-Russian Population Census of 2002: in 14 Volumes. Volume 2]. Feder. sluzhba gos. statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service]. Moscow, 2004. 13. Sostoyanie v brake, obrazovanie. Itogi Vserossiiskoi perepisi naseleniya 2010 goda. Respublika Komi. Tom 2: stat. sb. [13. Marital Status and Education. The Results of the Population Census in 2010. Komi Republic. Volume 2: Statistical Collection]. Komistat. Syktyvkar, 2012. 14. Popova L.A. Sovremennye osobennosti formirovaniya i razvitiya sem’i v Respubli-ke Komi [Modern Features of the Formation and Development of the Family in the Komi Republic]. Sem’ya v Rossii: Nauch. obshchestv.- politich. zhurn. [Family in Russia: Scientific Social and Political Journal], 2006, no.1, pp. 25-39.

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UDC 330.837: 316.462: 316.346.2, LBС 60.561.1 © Bazueva E.V. Transformation of gender power disposition in modern families as a driving force of institutional changes

Elena Valer'evna BAZUEVA Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of World Economics and Economic Theory, Federal State-Financed Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “Perm State National Research University” (15, Bukirev Street, Perm, 614990, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article uses the synthesis of the institutional theory tools and synergetics for analyzing the need to optimize the existing system of gender power institutions in the modern Russian economy. It is known that the performance effectiveness of the projected institutions is determined by the fact that economic agents are in need of such changes. In this regard, the article is focused on a study of the processes of transformation of the traditional type of gender power disposition in Russian families. It has been determined that they are characterized by a more equal distribution of functions in the organization of household. Therefore, currently, along with the traditional type of gender power, we define two more types: the egalitarian type, when the interests of both spouses are considered and there is symmetry in the distribution of household responsibilities, and the transitional type (interim version of gender interactions between spouses). The family is considered as a closed and an open system for determining the efficiency of reproduction of these gender power types in the modern economy. In the first case, using the synergy postulates, we can distinguish two types of gender interaction in the family: coordinated interaction – if the conditions of power disposition, defined by the power institution represented by the head of the family and the institute of internal power, are coherent; and uncoordinated interaction. From this perspective, traditional and egalitarian types have been referred to coordinated types of interaction. The transitional type admits both variants of interactions. The author has determined the number of families that implement each type of gender interaction between spouses. It is found that mismatch between gender power disposition in Russian families is increasing. The representation of a family as an open system with external influence factors has made it possible to determine that this trend is caused by the incoherence of the purposes of functioning of gender power institutions in the family and gender power institutions that are at higher levels

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of the hierarchy: the power of social environment, the power of an organization, the power of the state and region. In such conditions, all the basic mechanisms necessary for ensuring the institutionalization of behavior standards such as stability, coordination, integration, learning and inertia are not observed, which confirms the need and willingness of economic agents to modernize the gender power institutions in Russia’s economy. Key words: system of institutions; institutional changes; gender power institutions; gender relationships in the family.

As we have discovered in [3, 5, 6], the In our opinion, in order to define possible current system of gender power institutions1 ways to optimize this institutional system one is of very low quality, it does not meet the should use the tools accumulated by eco- requirements of modern economy and nomic theory for the analysis of institutional reduces the performance of the entire socio- change. economic system. Following the standards In this regard we remind that at present of behavior (institutional roles) established “there is a significant number of structuring by this system of institutions is very costly processes of institutional design that differ in for economic agents at all its levels [2]. All details”; most of them represent a special this determines the necessity of moderniza- case of the general logic of decision-making tion of the existing system of gender power process and its principles (see, e.g. [25, institutions towards increasing the degree of p. 18]). Among them we can distinguish the its egalitarity2. approach by O.S. Sukharev, who believes that institutional planning should be based on 1 According to the chosen research methodology, the following principles (criteria): setting of the gender power institution is understood as a special goals; identification of areas for application kind of socio-economic institute, which was formed of efforts; functional diversity; the costs of under the influence of objective conditions of material production (social division of labor) and which can be the actions of institutions and agents, arising represented as a system of relatively stable power rela- from the introduction of new institutions; tions, set out in legislative acts, contracts and informal the period of functioning of an institution rules that regulate the forms of interaction between the subject and object of power and that define objectives and the time before its modification, sub- and choices of a model of their own life behavior [3]. stitution, elimination or correction; resis- 2 Let us remind that the system of gender power tance to external changes and resistance to institutions of egalitarian type implies that gender power is limited by the sphere of freedom of another economic spontaneous mutations, as well as financial agent, thus the degree of its concentration is negligible. It aspects of functioning of a newly established is characterized by the following features: 1) equal access institution. of men and women to productive resources and income sources, including state management; 2) provision of Besides, the latter principle is not the same state-granted childcare benefits to both parents; 3) as the cost of functioning of an institution, levelling of gender stereotypes in the economy of family but rather the increment of financial oppor- and society; 4) the same return on human capital for men and women; 5) gender expert review of normative-legal tunities that occur or do not occur with program-target documents and management decisions. the introduction of this institution, or the

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required amount of cash collateral per unit In this regard, we recall that in the modern of time, necessary for the most effective Russian economy the maximum degree of functioning of an institution [24, p. 109]. gender power concentration is achieved at Note that the above mentioned institutional the lower levels of the hierarchy of the system planning criteria practically correspond to the of gender power institutions – in the institu- set of qualitative characteristics of effective tion of family power as represented by its head functioning of an institution, in other words, and the institution of internal power (see more its functionality. on the subject in [3]). It is no coincidence that The author clarifies that the application family economy is called as the “social space, of these principles will help to reduce the in which gender roles are distinguished to number and depth of dysfunctions in the the greatest extent” with the highest degree economy. Therefore, one of the first stages of of interdependence of men and women due institutional planning should be “definition to their marital status or blood relation [16, of initial institutional quality of a system, p. 97]. However, as A. Toffler points out, a the extent of its dysfunctionality accord- new civilization brings with it a new economy, ing to basic institutions (rules), and also new political conflicts, changed ways of work- clarification of the necessity for any changes, ing, loving, and living and beyond all this an institutions, including the possibility of bor- altered consciousness and new family styles. rowing institutions, transferring them from a [26, p. 31, 34]. We shall see if it is really so. different socio-economic environment” [24, For this purpose we shall imagine a family p. 110]. The approach to the stages of insti- and its gender power institutions as a closed tutional design has been used in this study. system, i.e. we shall eliminate the influence The quality level of Russia’s system of of external institutions of gender power on gender power institutions and the costs associ- the determination of the disposition of power ated with its functioning for economic agents within the family. This interaction process is at all its levels have been studied in previous presented as a scheme in figure 1. works of the author in [2–6], therefore, in this The figure shows that the objectives of life article we shall take a closer look at the defini- behavior of men and women in the family are tion of economic agents and the extent of their determined by the management system that demand for the introduction of the system of gender power institutions of egalitarian type. consists of a family’s gender power institu- We emphasize that according to the logic of tion represented by its head and internal the process of institutional changes proposed institutions of gender power. We remind by D. North and developed at present by rep- that each of them in accordance with their resentatives of institutional economic theory, own disposition of power determines the the degree of coincidence of reformers’ inten- institutional role that the subjects of gender tions in the creation of new institutions and interaction must implement within the exist- beliefs of economic agents will determine the ing institutional environment. The content effectiveness of performance of a projected of the disposition of gender power by the institution [18, pp. 80-93]. head of the family includes: 1) clear division

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Figure 1. Structure of subordination of the purposes of life behavior of men and women in a family*

Management system   Gender power institutions in a family Internal institutions of gender power   Management sub-system   Nanoagents (men) Nanoagents (women)

* Solid line denotes real connections of power impacts, dotted line denotes nominal connections that are characteristic of a minor part of modern Russian families. of household responsibilities on the basis of generally accepted criteria for evaluating this gender; 2) conformity with the stereotype of type of employment in society. Therefore, family breadwinner when choosing the type housekeeping is valuable only for a specific of family, forms of leisure and spheres of family, which fundamentally distinguishes it professional activity by the object of power. from the type of resource such as money that This type of gender power disposition, in the the “breadwinner” can offer for exchange. terms used by genderologists, corresponds However, even in the given family, the value to the traditional type of family, when the of time spent on housework, compared with man acts as the subject of gender power, and working time, will be always lower, because the woman – as its object. Consequently, this type of employment is carried out in free the disposition of gender power assumes the time (at weekends or in the evening), when following distribution of roles: the man is the “the relative importance of lost earnings breadwinner in a family, the earner of market proves to be lower” [9, p. 171]. Though at capital, and the woman focuses her efforts present, according to many studies, Russian on the accumulation of “family” capital. It families are going through the process of is acceptable that a woman is employed in transformation of this type of gender power the public sector of the economy. However, disposition. The results of our longitudinal household management is her priority. It survey of families in in 2001–2011 should be noted that such distribution of confirm this trend3. household chores, according to G. Becker, contributes to the stability of marriage, since 3 A longitudinal study “Social-and-market economy of the family” was held according to the guide, developed under the expected utility from housekeeping in the supervision of I.N. Novikova, Academician at the Academy women is greater than the utility of their work of Social Education in 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011. Annual survey covered 300 residents of Perm Krai, out of them 35% of in market production. On the one hand, this the total number of respondents were men and 75% – women. can be explained by lower wages of women in The representativeness of the sample was ensured through participation of respondents with different levels of education, the labor market, and on the other hand, by income, conditions and place of residence, type and form of the illiquidity of housework in the absence of family. Read more about the methodology of the study in [4].

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Table 1. Dynamics of modernization of the traditional type of gender power in family economy in 2001–2011

Variants of distribution of housework 2001 2006 2009 2011

1. There is a clear division of labor by gender and age 12.30 15.92 39.70 30.40 2. The whole family is equally involved in household chores 41.04 46.02 31.90 48.63 3. The main burden falls on the woman – mother 41.90 34.36 26.06 15.90 4. All housework is done mostly by parents of the husband or wife 0.00 2.42 0.00 3.13 5. Father and mother prefer to do most of the housework themselves 4.76 1.38 2.34 1.94

The dynamics of distribution of functions prevailing positions of each family member on the distribution of household chores depending on his/her contribution to the between members of respondents’ families performance of household chores. The table is presented in table 1. confirms the above conclusion concerning The table allows us to say that modern a more balanced distribution of domestic families in Russia and its regions are chores in Russian families through increased characterized by a tendency toward a more participation of men and children. As a result, even distribution of functions in the house- the ratio of time spent on housework by hold, on the one hand, by reducing the men and women has decreased almost twice proportion of families in which these func- over ten years – from 2.95 to 1.75. Let us tions are performed only by women, and highlight positive trends in the redistribution increasing the share of families with a of household chores between spouses. clear gender division of labor in the family The first trend: there has been a twofold economy; on the other hand, by the increase reduction in gender imbalances concerning in the share of families with proportional the time spent on cooking and washing di- load on all of their members. The wave- shes. In our opinion, this is connected with like change in the data presented in the servicization of economy in Russia and its table is due to the dynamics of indicators of regions; more specifically, the development the national economy development: when of fast food network. Note, also, that within Russia’s economy is in the stage of moderate a household the amount of time that men growth, families are characterized by a spend on cooking in 2001–2011 increased more even distribution of functions on the by 9 minutes a day, while for women, on the organization of family economy, including contrary, it decreased by 9 minutes. In our by increasing opportunities of obtaining opinion, this is a positive change, though it these services in the public sector. And is little; this change can gradually break the conversely, a decline in living standards of traditional gender stereotype that “a woman’s households increases the time spent by men place is in the kitchen”. and women on household chores in a family. The second trend: the ratio of time spent Then let us carry out a detailed analysis of by men and women on the purchase of goods the time spent on housework in families of and products has reduced. Moreover, it respondents; it is presented in table 2. It ranks increased more rapidly in men than in

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SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT E.V. Bazueva

on the chores, women/men chores, the on

Ratio of the time spent spent time the of Ratio

Prevailing position Prevailing

Children

Men

Women

on the chores, women/men chores, the on

Ratio of the time spent spent time the of Ratio

Prevailing position Prevailing

Children

Men

Women

on the chores, women/men chores, the on

Ratio of the time spent spent time the of Ratio

Prevailing position Prevailing

Children

Men

Women

on the chores, women/men chores, the on

Ratio of the time spent spent time the of Ratio Prevailing position Prevailing

Table 2. Dynamics of distribution chores in households respondents, hours a day Table

Children

2001 2006 2009 2011 2009 2001 2006

Men Women 0.35 0.13 0.09 wife0.20 0.18 2.69 0.13 0.32 wife 0.110.57 0.10 0.25 1.11 0.00 wife 0.27 wife 0.16 2.91 0.10 0.46 2.28 wife 0.20 0.26 0.08 0.300.31 1.69 0.00 0.15 wife 0.38 0.05 муж 0.29 2.30 0.09 wife 0.87 0.56 0.28 wife 1.29 2.07 0.11 0.36 0.13 1.31 0.00 wife 0.18 0.36 0.08 wife 0.32 2.00 husband 0.12 0.72 3.58 wife 0.36 1.25 0.49 0.38 1.12 0.05 0.16 husband wife 0.73 3.29 0.31 0.36 0.18 husband 0.86 Time spent on the chores 1. Purchases 0.56 0.16 0.152. Cooking wife 1.25 3.503. Laundry, 0.14garment care 0.13 0.28 0.17 wife 0.124. Cleaning up wife 8.92the rooms 0.54 1.65 0.19 0.17 1.06 care 5. Taking 0.21of the children wife 0.09 2.84 wife6. Other chores 1.27 5.05 0.08 0.22 0.12 1.03 0.08 0.36 0.097. Helping wife husband 0.12the relatives 0.67 wife 7.14 0.25 1.14 2.86 0.23 0.238. Total 0.11 0.10 wife wife 1.09 4.52 4.96 1.53 0.38 1.04 0.37 0.14 wife wife 2.95 3.15 1.03 2.14 0.32 1.08 0.33 0.16 wife husband 0.97 1.47 6.40 3.34 1.04 wife 1.92 6.09 3.45 1.24 wife 1.75

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women in the 10-year period. Such changes The fourth trend: the data obtained in the are connected with the emergence of course of our research refute the assessments supermarkets and hypermarkets, where, of many scientists, who indicate that women, like in the West, they buy food together for a rather than men, are more likely to render longer period, for example, for a week. assistance to their relatives. For example, The third trend: modern families gradu- according to the time spent on this kind of ally abandon the feminization of child- housework, men have retained leadership ren’s education due to the formation of since 2006, though it is not significant. an institution of “new fatherhood”. As The fifth trend: in 2001–2011 the ratio of S.A. Orlyanskiy points out, the duties of time spent on laundry, sewing, taking care the “new father” include child care, moral of linen, clothing and footwear slightly and intellectual education of the child from decreased (from 2.69 to 2.00). At that, the the moment of his/her birth. However, time that men, as well as women, spent on the author stresses that a father is not a this type of housework has increased over 10 “householder”. He works, earns money and years (16 and 21 minutes, respectively). In devotes his free time to the child. A man our opinion, the reduction in the amount assumes part of household chores related to of time spent on these chores is hampered family communication, i.e. a man, along with by poor development of consumer services implementation of his institutional role of sphere in Russia’s regions and also by high breadwinner in the family, is actively engaged prices for already existing types of consumer in education of the children [20]. services. For example, the amount of time, which The sixth trend: the increase in the level of men spend on education of their children in mechanization of family economy is 2001–2011 increased by 13 minutes. However, accompanied by greater participation of men we note that the intensification of men’s in cleaning the rooms, taking care of furniture participation in education of children that and household appliances. For example, in we pointed out in 2006, when men devoted 2011 men and women spend almost the same their attention to their children even by amount of time on this type of housework (the four minutes per day more than moms, ratio of time spent amounted to 1.12). slowed down under the impact of the state After highlighting the above positive and regional policy aimed at stimulation trends in redistribution of household of birth rate. So, for example, as a result responsibilities between spouses, of implementation of the regional project genderologists define transitional and “Provision of allowances for families with egalitarian types of gender interactions children of 18 months –5 years old, who do along with the traditional type. Families with not attend a municipal preschool educational egalitarian internal structure are characterized institution” more than 60% of mothers of by fair, proportional distribution of family children aged under 5 do not go back to work responsibilities, interchangeability of when their child care leave is over. spouses in solving everyday problems. Under

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egalitarian conditions there are no gender- gender power that women and men have differentiated responsibilities; decisions are in a family. In accordance with the gender discussed and made by all family members. research methodology, low-quality men and This type of gender interaction is possible women are those, who prefer the traditional only in conditions similar to those of disposition of gender power. In turn, high- competitive environment, when the degree quality men and women prefer the egalitarian of concentration of gender power is type of gender interaction. insignificant, since it is limited by the freedom We agree with G. Becker, who states that of another economic agent. In this case a set of equilibrium incomes is the criterion the market becomes the subject of gender of optimal sorting of economic agents in the power, and men and women are rationally marriage market. In this case there are no acting individuals in the marriage market. opportunities for the formation of costs In the light of methodology of institutional associated with the presence of elements of economic theory this means the presence of power in the transactions between them (costs the best marriage market, which provides of subordination and costs of refusal; see all its participants with imputed income or more on the subject in [3]). This is possible “prices” that serve as incentives for entering due to the reduction (or impossibility of an appropriate marriage. “Imputed prices” formation) of costs of subordination and costs are also used when selecting the “quality” of of refusal in the levelling of the influence of a future partner. internal institutions of gender power in men G. Becker notes that “men and women of and in women, the operation of which results higher quality marry their own kind and they in “understatement of one’s own price” do not choose partners of lower quality when in the marriage market in women and, on these qualities are complementary. The the contrary, “overpricing” in men, when choice based on similarity is optimal, when women initially choose lower quality men the characteristics are complementary, and (with the traditional type of gender power the choice based on difference is optimal, disposition). In this regard, Becker points when they are interchangeable, since the out that “some participants choose partners partners of high quality in the first case that are of the worst “quality” because they reinforce each other’s characteristics, and in believe the partners of “the best quality” are the second – duplicate them. too expensive” [9, p. 381], in other words, G. Becker explains further: “...When the unaffordable. characteristics are complementary, the And now let us define the number of benefit from marrying the woman of this women who have an opportunity to do an quality is greater for a high-quality man; and optimal sorting of economic agents in the the benefit is greater for a low-quality man, marriage market according to the criterion when the characteristics are interchangeable” of balanced incomes, and hence to form [9, p. 390]. We use this concept to study the the disposition of gender power of the ratio of egalitarian to traditional types of egalitarian type. We begin with the fact

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that the main source of income of men and citizens (especially young ones), who support women in contemporary Russia is salary that individualism, and focus on the pragmatic is segmented by gender. ideal of a self-sufficient and successful person Therefore, it is necessary to determine the able to achieve material well-being and good economic agents, for which an independent social status. For example, according to the activity has become more effective. In our Public Opinion Foundation there are 18% of opinion, they can include women employed such people in Russia5. in top management with high salaries. For Note that these ideals correspond to the example, according to a monitoring of the characteristics of the Y-matrix, based on a labor market for top managers in Russia high level of autonomism of economic agents, (2000–2007) carried out by the Laboratory i.e. the priority of “I” over “We”, when there for Labor Market Studies at the Higher is a primacy of an individual, his/her rights School of Economics, the share of women in and freedoms with respect to the values of senior leadership positions in 2000–2007 was communities of a higher level. The subjects growing steadily – this indicator in Russian in such conditions are dissociated and can companies increased from 5.2% in 2000 to function on their own, separately from each 20.1% in 2007, and in foreign companies – other [13]. This autonomism of economic from 14 to 23.2%, respectively [20, p. 53]. agents implies a high level of development The category of women able to conduct of civil society, which, in the opinion of their own activity independently from their many genderologists, is a prerequisite for husbands, in our opinion, can also include the development of gender-parity relations female employers. According to a population in national economy. survey of employment issues, their share As for the transitional type of gender among employed women in the Russian power disposition typical of contemporary labor market in 2010–2012 was about 1%. Russian families, we think that it represents In addition, modern families with average an intermediate option of gender interactions and high incomes commercialize everyday between spouses, when the effect of the life (care)4 by using hired labor (babysitters, institute of internal power is reduced through housekeepers). For example, according to a the weakening of stereotypes of the condition research by O.B. Savinskaya, in 2010 16.1% and changes in gender status of economic of respondents were using and are using the agents. services of babysitters [15, p. 84]. This type of gender power disposition is It appears that the tendency towards characterized by the following: 1) reduction egalitarization of gender interactions between in the concentration of gender power of spouses will only increase in the future, 5 Note that it is these respondents that were called “People because at present, according to numerous of the 21st century” by the specialists of the Foundation. studies, there is an increase in the share of This group of social activists differs significantly from the rest of the Russian population. They design their own future and demonstrate ability to accumulate and mobilize social 4 The term proposed by E. Zdravomyslova. See more on and material resources; they show independence and social the subject in [12]. sustainability (see more on the subject in [17]).

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Table 3. Dynamics of priorities in the formation of income in families, %

Whose incomes form the major part of your family’s budget? 2001 2006 2009 2011 1. Husband 29.7 44.6 39.8 43.6 2. Wife 34.2 26.9 27.2 31.6 3. Children 13.9 8.9 10.2 4.5 4. Retired parents 9.2 3.1 5.5 2.9 5. Support from our relatives 8.6 2.2 2.4 1.51 6. The incomes are similar 4.4 14.3 14.9 15.89 men in the family economy as a result of breadwinners in the market of capital; as for their greater involvement in housework; men, they are mostly engaged in accumulation 2) enhancement of the role of women in of specific “family” capital. Maximization of making decisions that are important for the utility is achieved in the case, when the man’s family (matriarchal family pattern). wage is significantly lower than that of the In the first case, in our opinion, the woman6. Our study shows that there are about object-subject type of gender interaction can 30% of such families in Perm Krai (tab. 3). be determined individually in each family A common situation for the matriarchal (biarchial type of gender power disposition). type of family is when it is men, who take a In this regard, for example, V.A. Ramikh childrearing leave. According to HeadHunter notes that “today the ideals of masculinity company, nowadays in Russia the share of and femininity are more contradictory such families is about 7% [8]. than ever: their traditional and modern Next, in order to determine the quantity characteristics are intertwined, they take into demanded for the institutions of gender account the diversity of individual variations power of egalitarian type among economic much better than before. The general trend agents, we shall use one of the basic principles of development in this sphere consists in of synergetics, which assumes that a highly synergetic system should have indispensable weakening the polarization of gender roles mutual cooperation and assistance, i.e. and socio-cultural stereotypes associated with the coherence of behavior between its them. In these conditions, social roles of men individual components [10, p. 387]. From and women do not seem polar and mutually this perspective, two main types of interaction exclusive any longer, the possibility of various are possible: 1) coordinated interaction, individual combinations is emerging” (cit. provided that there is coherence in the from [20]). conditions of power disposition defined by Institutional roles of economic agents in the matriarchal type of gender power are 6 Moreover, according to the institutional economic theory, the basis of specialization in the accumulation of redistributed; women in such families act as the market or family capital is the differences in the level of the subject of gender power, and men – as education of partners; it is the main factor in the formation of wages. However, statistics show that in the conditions of its object. In this case, women become main modern Russia this provision is not observed so far.

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the institution of power represented by its The “transitional” type of coordinated head and the institution of internal power; relations is observed in families where both 2) uncoordinated interaction that implies spouses are satisfied with the reduction in the their inconsistency. We think that traditional degree of concentration of gender power of and egalitarian types of gender power in a men in the family economy as a result of family from these positions are coordinated, their greater involvement in the household and the transitional type admits both variants or enhancement of the role of women in of interactions. making decisions important for the family Under the traditional type of gender (matriarchal family model). interaction both women and men must be The disagreement in the transitional type satisfied with gender-differentiated division of gender power disposition can be manifested of labor in the family economy. Research in the case when at least one of the spouses is results show that 26% of respondents prefer not satisfied with participation in the the traditional family model, among them accumulation of a specific market or “family” 15% are young women and 85% – young men capital, i.e. the internal attitudes of nanoagents [21]. At the same time, if we process this data do not coincide with the disposition of gender using the ratios of positional consent, then power imposed on them by the head of the consonant positions (coordinated patterns of family. According to many studies, this type gender behavior) will be characteristic only of gender interactions is, unfortunately, for 3% of respondents’ answers. In view of typical of the majority of Russian families. the above and taking into account the results Apparently, as M.Yu. Arutyunyan points out, of other studies, we can point out that the the “gender misfortune” of Russian families traditional type of gender power is established consists in a contradictory combination not more than in 20–25% of contemporary of patriarchal (in men) and egalitarian (in Russian families. women) gender agreements [1]. As a result, The model of egalitarian relations is young couples in particular have a low gender-balanced (coordinated), since the degree of satisfaction with marriage and, interests of both spouses are taken into consequently, high rate of divorce, by which account, and there is symmetry in the Russia ranks first in the world. Moreover, the distribution of household responsibilities. mismatch between gender power disposition At that, the choice made by each family in Russian families is intensifying. For member concerning what to do (to work example, the content analysis of 32 projective in the market sector or in the household), compositions “My future family” carried depends on the ratio of earnings in the labor out by S.V. Zaev in 2005 shows that almost market, the opportunity cost of production 40% of female respondents prefer egalitarian of goods in the household and egalitarian gender contracts in the family, where relations attitudes of spouses’ behavior. According to are based not on material wealth and clear our estimates, the share of such families in division of power resources, but on a high contemporary Russia is about 15%. level of psychological compatibility.

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In contrast, the majority of young men that should be able to take managing positions (75%) have traditional understanding of on an equal basis”; and they do not agree that family economy: they assume the role of head “a woman is first of all a mother, and her most and breadwinner, and they expect to receive important purpose is to give birth and to raise psychological, emotional and sexual support children”. This role is more important than in return [11, p. 28-29]. all of her other roles”. The data obtained in the course of On the other hand, they point out that research by T.G. Pospelova and processed “biological sex determines the differences in using the program Kobra-KD7, show that the opportunities for men and women in 87% of girls preferred the egalitarian type of different spheres of life; consequently, some gender interaction in 2008 [21, p. 48]. gender-related limitations are still necessary, However, most women and men, who “it is right that there are such spheres, in prefer the egalitarian type of gender power which the participation of women should be in family economy, are characterized by a limited (for example, in politics, diplomacy, mismatch in the general system of institutional and others) and, as a consequence, “for roles due to the incoherence of the disposition women the most important thing is family”. of power at each level of the hierarchy in the Moreover, the attitudes of girls in their system of gender power institutions (see more answers are more controversial than those of on the subject in [3, 5]). young men. For example, the findings of our research As a result, psychologists state that into gender characteristics of personality8 modern men and experience carried out from the 2011–2012 academic crises of gender identity of personality: the year onward and used annually as input crisis of achieving consistency of gender control of knowledge in the study of the identity, the crisis of self-actualization of gender course “Gender studies and feminology” identity, the crisis of external confirmation of show that the majority of young women and gender identity9; according to research by men, on the one hand, believe that a desire to S.B Kokhanova, these crises have been make a career, high professionalism, success detected in 76% of girls and only in 30% of in business, leadership in any field should young men [14, p. 108]. be typical both for women and men; they In addition, the uncoordinated type of emphasize that “the established tradition gender interaction is possible in matriarchal of promoting men to senior positions is families. For example, this happens in a deprecated, and it is both men and women family, in which the woman is the main breadwinner. It is assumed that the man, who 7 The program “Kobra-KD” was developed at the Re- search Institute for Complex Studies under SPbSU specifically for conducting a more detailed gender analysis of sociological 9 Gender identity is a representation (cognitive compo- information. nent), attitude (affective component) and implementation of 8 Over 150 students of legal, economic, and philosoph- one’s gender in behavior (conative component) by an individual ical-sociological faculties of Perm State National Research in the gender space of personality existence: the space of en- University participated in this study that was carried out using vironment, activity and organism. See more on the subject in the questionnaire developed by I.S. Kletsina. [19, p. 151].

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 159 Transformation of gender power disposition in modern families as a driving force of institutional changes

Figure 2. Family institutions of gender power as a multi-level synergistic system

External environment

Internal environment of the system of gender power in a family input output Institute of gender power represented by its head intervention feedback

input output Nanoeconomic institutions of gender power

intervention Nanoagents (М) Nanoagents (W) feedback

is not so much employed in the labor market and the environment in non-equilibrium or not employed at all, should do certain conditions [10, p. 387], the system of gender housework in exchange for economic support power institutions, according to the second from the woman. In fact, however, studies postulate of synergetics, could become a show that the more economically dependent highly efficient synergistic system. a man is on his wife, the fewer amount It turns out that the tendency towards of housework he does [7]. This pattern is disagreement in relations between spouses most evident in families with low income. within a family is caused by incoherence of Accordingly, there is a clear mismatch in this objectives of functioning of gender power type of family relationships. institutions in the family and institutions In our opinion, the above transitional of gender power at higher levels in the types of gender interactions correspond to hierarchy: the power of social environment, the current conditions and the results organizations, power of the state and region achieved in the development of the institutions (see more on the subject in: [3, 5]). of gender power of liberal type, which, as we In such conditions it is much more note in [3], are characterized by extensive difficult to achieve the balance, since the network of subjects of gender power: men, standards of behavior are destabilized, social environment, organizations and the therefore, their sustainability is low, there is no state. In this case the family acts as an open consistency in their performance, transaction system with external factors (fig. 2). We point costs associated with their use are growing, out that due to intensive (streaming) exchange coordination with other rules of behavior is between substance, energy, information difficult; certain agents appear, who want to

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change gender behavior stereotypes. Thus, gender power in family economy (which stability, coordination, integration, learning corresponds to the egalitarian type of and inertia, defined by V.M. Polterovich as coordinated interaction between spouses) the main mechanisms for institutionalization is the most optimal at the modern stage of of codes of conduct [22, p. 73-76] are not society development. Establishment of this complied with. type of balance is only possible in adequate In addition, if we consider the impact of institutional conditions; this fact confirms the the socio-economic system on the system of necessity and willingness of economic agents gender power institutions, as we determined to modernize the system of gender power in [6], the levelling of concentration of institutions in Russia’s economy.

Cited works 1. Arutyunyan M.Yu. Gender Relations in the Family. Valdai-96: Proceedings of the First Russian Summer School on Studies of Women and Gender. Moscow: MTsGI, 1997. Pp. 132-133. 2. Bazueva E.V. The Human Capital of the Perm Region: Gender Peculiarities of Realization. Economy of the Region, 2010, no.2, pp. 46-59. 3. Bazueva E.V. Institutional Analysis of Gender in Contemporary Russia. The Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, 2011, no.19, pp. 9-20. 4. Bazueva E.V. Gender-Related Specifics of Formation of Household Budgets in Perm Krai (on the Findings of a Longitudinal Study “Social and Market Economy of the Family”. Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2012, no.33, pp. 39-49. 5. Bazueva E.V. Institutional Environment in Modern Russia: Gender Criterion of Efficiency. Bulletin of Perm University. Series: Economics, 2011, no.2, pp. 48-60. 6. Bazueva E.V. Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between National Economic Indicators and Gender Inequality. The Moscow University Herald. Series 6: Economics, 2013, no.2, pp. 71-84. 7. Balabanova E.S. Housework as a Symbol of Gender and Power. Sociological Studies, 2005, no.6, pp. 109-120. 8. Bateneva T. Dad Can… Russian Newspaper “Business”, 2012, no.850, June 5. 9. Becker G. The Economic Approach to Human Behavior. Translated from English. Moscow: GU VShE, 2003. 672 p. 10. Zakovorotnaya M.V. On the Philosophical Issues of Management of Social Systems: Status and Prospects. Synergetics and the Issues of Management Theory. Ed. by A.A. Kolesnikov. Moscow: FIZMATLIT, 2004. Pp. 465-482. 11. Zaev S.V. Elements of Contract of Relations in a Family: the Views of Young People. Personality as a Subject of Economic Life: the Gender Aspect. Gender Analysis of Economic Relations in Family, Career, Politics, Entertainment: Proceedings of the 5th All-Russia Research-to-Practice Seminar. Krasnodar: Kubanskii gos. un-t, 2005. Pp. 24-29. 12. Babysitting: Commercialization of Care. New Everyday Life in Contemporary Russia: Gender-Related Research into Everyday Life: Collective Monograph. Ed. by E. Zdravomyslova, A. Rotkirkh, A. Temkina. Saint Petersburg: Izd-vo Evropeiskogo universiteta v Sankt-Peterburge, 2009. Pp. 94-137. 13. Kirdina S.G. The X- and the Y-economies: Institutional Analysis. Moscow: Nauka, 2004. 256 p. 14. Kokhanova S.B. Empirical Description of Semantic Mechanisms of Gender Identity of Personality in Students Living in the City of Armavir. Topical Issues of Modern Genderology. Vol. 4: Proceedings of the 54th Annual Research-

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 161 Transformation of gender power disposition in modern families as a driving force of institutional changes

and-Methodological Conference of Teachers and Students “University Science – to the Region” (April 16, 2009). Moscow – Stavropol: Izd-vo SGU, 2009. Pp. 101-109. 15. Luk'yanov G.A., Roshchin S.Yu., Solntsev S.A., Travkin P.V., Uspenskii N.S. The Monitoring of the Labor Market of Top Managers in Russia (2000–2007): Preprint WP 15/2009/02 series WP 15 Scientific Works of the Laboratory for Labor Market Research. Moscow: Izd-vo GU VShE, 2009. 73 p. 16. Malysheva M.M. Modern Patriarchate. Socio-economic Essay. Moscow: Academia, 2001. 352 p. 17. Modernization of the Family: Attitudes of People in the 21st Century. Demoscope Weekly, 2011, no.475-476, August 29 – September 11. Available at: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2011/0475/opros01.php (Accessed September 26, 2012). 18. North D. Understanding the Process of Economic Change. Translated from English by K. Martynov, N. Edel'man. Moscow: Izd. dom Gos. un-ta Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki, 2010. 256 p. 19. Ozhigova L.N. Psychology of Gender Identity of a Personality. Krasnodar: Kubanskii gos. un-t, 2006. 290 p. 20. Orlyanskii S.A. Transformation of Social Roles of Men (on the Materials of Sociological Research: Comparative Analysis). Topical Issues of Modern Genderology. Vol. 3: Proceedings of the 53rd Annual Research-and-Methodological Conference of Teachers and Students “University Science – to the Region” (April 16, 2008). Moscow – Stavropol: Izd-vo SGU, 2008. Pp. 32-41. 21. Pospelova T.G. About the Methods of Gender-Related Analysis of Sociological Information). Topical Issues of Modern Genderology. Vol. 4: Proceedings of the 54th Annual Research-and-Methodological Conference of Teachers and Students “University Science – to the Region” (April 16, 2009). Moscow – Stavropol: Izd-vo SGU, 2009. Pp. 47-49. 22. Polterovich V.M. Elements of the Theory of Reforms. Moscow: ZAO “Izdatel'stvo “Ekonomika”, 2007. 447 p. 23. Savinskaya O.B. Value of Employment and the Preferences in Working Conditions of Mothers of Preschool Children. Woman in Russian Society, 2011. 24. Sukharev O.S. Economy of the Future: the Theory of Institutional Change (New Evolutionary Approach). Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 2011. 432 p. 25. Tambovtsev V.L. The Theories of Institutional Change: Textbook. Moscow: INFRA–M, 2009. 154 p. 26. Toffler A. The Third Wave. Moscow: AST, 1999. 784 p.

References 1. Arutyunyan M.Yu. Gendernye otnosheniya v sem'e [Gender Relations in the Family]. Valdai–96: materialy Pervoi rossiiskoi letnei shkoly po zhenskim i gendernym issledovaniyam [Valdai-96: Proceedings of the First Russian Summer School on Studies of Women and Gender]. Moscow: MTsGI, 1997. Pp. 132-133. 2. Bazueva E.V. Chelovecheskii kapital Permskogo kraya: gendernye osobennosti realizatsii [The Human Capital of the Perm Region: Gender Peculiarities of Realization]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of the Region], 2010, no.2, pp. 46-59. 3. Bazueva E.V. Institutsional'nyi analiz sistemy gendernoi vlasti v sovremennoi Rossii [Institutional Analysis of Gender in Contemporary Russia]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika [The Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice], 2011, no.19, pp. 9-20. 4. Bazueva E.V. Gendernye osobennosti formirovaniya byudzhetov domokhozyaistv v Permskom krae (po rezul'tatam longityudnogo issledovaniya “Sotsial'no-rynochnaya ekonomika sem'i”) [Gender-Related Specifics of Formation of Household Budgets in Perm Krai (on the Findings of a Longitudinal Study “Social and Market Economy of the Family”]. Regional'naya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika [Regional Economics: Theory and Practice], 2012, no.33, pp. 39-49.

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5. Bazueva E.V. Institutsional'naya sreda sovremennoi Rossii: gendernyi kriterii effektivnosti [Institutional Environment in Modern Russia: Gender Criterion of Efficiency]. Vestnik Permskogo universiteta. Seriya: Ekonomika [Bulletin of Perm University. Series: Economics], 2011, no.2, pp. 48-60. 6. Bazueva E.V. Ekonometricheskii analiz vzaimosvyazi pokazatelei natsional'noi ekonomiki i gendernogo neravenstva [Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between National Economic Indicators and Gender Inequality]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 6: Ekonomika [The Moscow University Herald. Series 6: Economics], 2013, no.2, pp. 71-84. 7. Balabanova E.S. Domashnii trud kak simvol gendera i vlasti [Housework as a Symbol of Gender and Power]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies], 2005, no.6, pp. 109-120. 8. Bateneva T. Papa mozhet... [Dad Can…]. Rossiiskaya gazeta “Biznes” [Russian Newspaper “Business”], 2012, no.850, June 5. 9. Becker G. Chelovecheskoe povedenie: ekonomicheskii podkhod [The Economic Approach to Human Behavior]. Translated from English. Moscow: GU VShE, 2003. 672 p. 10. Zakovorotnaya M.V. O filosofskikh problemakh upravleniya sotsial'nymi sistemami: sostoyanie voprosa i perspektivy [On the Philosophical Issues of Management of Social Systems: Status and Prospects]. Sinergetika i problemy teorii upravleniya [Synergetics and the Issues of Management Theory]. Ed. by A.A. Kolesnikov. Moscow: FIZMATLIT, 2004. Pp. 465-482. 11. Zaev S.V. Elementy kontrakta otnoshenii v semeinykh predstavleniyakh molodezhi [Elements of Contract of Relations in a Family: the Views of Young People]. Lichnost' kak sub"ekt ekonomicheskogo bytiya: gendernyi aspekt. Gendernyi analiz ekonomicheskikh otnoshenii v sem'e, professional'noi deyatel'nosti, politike, sfere razvlechenii: mater. V Vseros. nauch.-prakt. Seminara [Personality as a Subject of Economic Life: the Gender Aspect. Gender Analysis of Economic Relations in Family, Career, Politics, Entertainment: Proceedings of the 5th All-Russia Research-to-Practice Seminar]. Krasnodar: Kubanskii gos. un-t, 2005. Pp. 24-29. 12. Nyani: kommertsializatsiya zaboty [Babysitting: Commercialization of Care]. Novyi byt v sovremennoi Rossii: gendernye issledovaniya povsednevnosti: kollektivnaya monografiya [New Everyday Life in Contemporary Russia: Gender-Related Research into Everyday Life: Collective Monograph]. Ed. by E. Zdravomyslova, A. Rotkirkh, A. Temkina. Saint Petersburg: Izd-vo Evropeiskogo universiteta v Sankt-Peterburge, 2009. Pp. 94-137. 13. Kirdina S.G. X- i Y-ekonomiki: Institutsional'nyi analiz [The X- and the Y-economies: Institutional Analysis]. Moscow: Nauka, 2004. 256 p. 14. Kokhanova S.B. Empiricheskoe opisanie smyslovykh mekhanizmov gendernoi identichnosti lichnosti studencheskoi molodezhi g. Armavira [Empirical Description of Semantic Mechanisms of Gender Identity of Personality in Students Living in the City of Armavir]. Aktual'nye problemy sovremennoi genderologii.– Vyp. 4: materialy 54 ezhegodnoi nauchno-metodicheskoi konferentsii prepodavatelei i studentov “Universitetskaya nauka – region” (16 aprelya 2009 g.) [Topical Issues of Modern Genderology. Vol. 4: Proceedings of the 54th Annual Research-and-Methodological Conference of Teachers and Students “University Science – to the Region” (April 16, 2009). Moscow – Stavropol: Izd-vo SGU, 2009. Pp. 101-109. 15. Luk'yanov G.A., Roshchin S.Yu., Solntsev S.A., Travkin P.V., Uspenskii N.S. Monitoring rynka truda top- menedzherov v Rossii (2000–2007 gg.): preprint WP 15/2009/02 seriya WP 15 Nauchnye trudy laboratorii issledovanii rynka truda [The Monitoring of the Labor Market of Top Managers in Russia (2000–2007): Preprint WP 15/2009/02 series WP 15 Scientific Works of the Laboratory for Labor Market Research]. Moscow: Izd-vo GU VShE, 2009. 73 p. 16. Malysheva M.M. Sovremennyi patriarkhat. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe esse [Modern Patriarchate. Socio-economic Essay]. Moscow: Academia, 2001. 352 p. 17. Modernizatsiya sem'i: ustanovki lyudei-XXI [Modernization of the Family: Attitudes of People in the 21st Century]. Demoskop-Weekly [Demoscope Weekly], 2011, no.475-476, August 29 – September 11. Available at: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2011/0475/opros01.php (Accessed September 26, 2012).

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 163 Transformation of gender power disposition in modern families as a driving force of institutional changes

18. North D. Ponimanie protsessa ekonomicheskikh izmenenii [Understanding the Process of Economic Change]. Translated from English by K. Martynov, N. Edel'man. Moscow: Izd. dom Gos. un-ta Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki, 2010. 256 p. 19. Ozhigova L.N. Psikhologiya gendernoi identichnosti lichnosti [Psychology of Gender Identity of a Personality]. Krasnodar: Kubanskii gos. un-t, 2006. 290 p. 20. Orlyanskii S.A. Transformatsiya sotsial'nykh rolei muzhchin (po materialam sotsiologicheskogo issledovaniya: sravnitel'nyi analiz) [Transformation of Social Roles of Men (on the Materials of Sociological Research: Comparative Analysis)]. Aktual'nye problemy sovremennoi genderologii. – Vyp. 3: materialy 53 ezhegodnoi nauchno- metodicheskoi konferentsii prepodavatelei i studentov “Universitetskaya nauka – regionu” (16 aprelya 2008 g.) [Topical Issues of Modern Genderology. Vol. 3: Proceedings of the 53rd Annual Research-and-Methodological Conference of Teachers and Students “University Science – to the Region” (April 16, 2008)]. Moscow – Stavropol: Izd-vo SGU, 2008. Pp. 32-41. 21. Pospelova T.G. O metodakh gendernogo analiza sotsiologicheskoi informatsii) [About the Methods of Gender- Related Analysis of Sociological Information)]. Aktual'nye problemy sovremennoi genderologii. – Vyp. 4: materialy 54 ezhegodnoi nauchno-metodicheskoi konferentsii prepodavatelei i studentov “Universitetskaya nauka – region” (16 aprelya 2009 g.) [Topical Issues of Modern Genderology. Vol. 4: Proceedings of the 54th Annual Research- and-Methodological Conference of Teachers and Students “University Science – to the Region” (April 16, 2009)]. Moscow – Stavropol: Izd-vo SGU, 2009. Pp. 47-49. 22. Polterovich V.M. Elementy teorii reform [Elements of the Theory of Reforms]. Moscow: ZAO “Izdatel'stvo “Ekonomika”, 2007. 447 p. 23. Savinskaya O.B. Tsennost' zanyatosti i predpochteniya v usloviyakh truda materei doshkol'nikov [Value of Employment and the Preferences in Working Conditions of Mothers of Preschool Children]. Zhenshchina v rossiiskom obshchestve [Woman in Russian Society], 2011. 24. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomika budushchego: teoriya institutsional'nykh izmenenii (novyi evolyutsionnyi podkhod) [Economy of the Future: the Theory of Institutional Change (New Evolutionary Approach)]. Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 2011. 432 p. 25. Tambovtsev V.L. Teorii institutsional'nykh izmenenii: ucheb. Posobie [The Theories of Institutional Change: Textbook]. Moscow: INFRA–M, 2009. 154 p. 26. Toffler A. Tret'ya volna [The Third Wave]. Moscow: AST, 1999. 784 p.

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UDC 332.024(470.12), LBC 65.050.2 © Kocheshkova L.O. Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment

Larisa Osipovna KOCHESHKOVA Ph.D. in Pedagogy, Head of the Department, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The estimate of efficient corporate governance, as well as professional activity of the subject of this process – a Manager – is one of the most important tasks of modern management. Meanwhile, more often only the performance of an enterprise or its employees is evaluated. A number of methods are applied and optional technologies are developed. But at the same time the managers’ professional activity is still assessed insufficiently, the specific indicators of this procedure are not identified; as a rule, they do not reflect specific features of the sphere and the industry. The paper proposes indicators to evaluate efficiency of the heads of socially-oriented establishments (on the example of the health sector), describes levels of results achievement. The empirical approbation of the indicators was held during two researches conducted by the ISEDT RAS in 2013 on the basis of the elaborated methods “Analysis of conditions for the functioning and development of health care institutions in the context of the industry modernization” and “Assessment of the quality and accessibility of medical services”. The sociological survey method to distribute questionnaires was applied for their implementation. The research resulted in the proposal on mandatory accounting of managers’ self-assessment and external evaluation of their activity on the part of services consumers – the population. The article offers recommendations to the state executive authorities, the Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast and medical institutions to make decisions regarding the improvement of the management of human resources sector in general and private medical institutions. Key words: management, effectiveness, head, assessment of professional activity, quality, performance evaluations.

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The study of management efficiency is There is another definition of the term one of the most important trends in modern “assessment”: it is an analysis of correlation management. It is based on the following between professional, personal characteristics approaches: “management by objectives” (competencies) of the individual and re- (MBO), “management by results” (MBR), quirements of the position he/she occupies “the balanced scorecard” (BSC), “perfor- by means of certain indicators [15]. mance management” (PM) and “total quality The analysis of theoretical sources on management” (TQM). the problem to estimate the performance of The efficiency depends on group and heads of enterprises leads to the conclusion individual results and is defined as “...an that the business evaluation indicators are ability to achieve a certain result...” [10]. divided into three categories: It is a complex category that includes the • characteristics of personality traits: following indicators [ibidem]: personality traits are considered as the • effectiveness; potential to achieve the goals of a particular • cost; employee; • performance; • professional behavior: motivation for • quality (of governance, processes, professional development; lifelong learning; services or manufactured products, working ability to work in a team and independently; conditions, etc.); ability to make decisions; willingness to • productivity; accept additional workload and responsibi- • innovation; lity; initiative; • labor performance: productivity of • balance of interests of the key groups an employee; qualifications; knowledge interested in the enterprise’s state of affairs skills, etc.[14]. that needs to strengthen its positions in the There is a specific evaluation of the society, etc. activities of heads of enterprises in connec- We consider management efficiency as tion with the specific performance of their a level of achievement of strategic objec- professional managerial authority. This tives, qualitative and quantitative indicators. evaluation is performed: Unfortunately, the theory and practice of 1) through the effectiveness and effici- management do not pay enough attention ency of the entire subordinate system; to its consideration, the detailed study of 2) evaluation of the manager’s profes- individual actors’ activities, including heads sional activity as a team leader, a leading of organizations, the assessment of their organizer of the process of functioning and professional results. development of the industry or enterprise. The evaluation of employees’ activity is a In the first case the assessment includes systematic study of the process of their work the following items: and achievements [15]. Thus, it takes into • quality of management of the industry account results and factors determining the or enterprise (impact on basic and servicing degree of their achievement. processes);

166 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.O. Kocheshkova

• quality of management of various types concept as a relatively coherent and stable of resources (material, labor, information, aggregate of the most important beliefs, ideas etc.); about managing a growing industry or an • quality of management of functional enterprise and current processes, etc.). areas (research and development, processes, 10. Ability to accomplish reforms. services, finance, etc.). Due to the stated above, the business In the second case the following indicators evaluation indicators “characteristics of are considered [5]: personality traits” should be accompanied 1. Social portrait of the head: by the estimate of the head as a team • gender; leader, a leading organizer of the process of • age; functioning and development of the industry • education; or organization; “labor performance” – • work experience (including as a head); by the efficiency and effectiveness of the • performed managerial roles (a head of subordinate system and quality management. the industry; a team leader; an economic Our research has proved that the effective executive; a researcher; a experimenter, etc.); performance can be achieved by four levels of • quantitative and qualitative compo- obtaining results: sition of the team; • I – a level of performance; • self-esteem; • II – a level of conscious activity; • professional plans; • III – a level of the management system • job satisfaction; transformation; • social feeling (social and material • IV – a level of the author’s management conditions of life). system. 2. Level of general culture. Their description can be presented in 3. Performing management actions the following table (tab. 1). (functions). The table reveals that the transition from 4. Performing advanced functions: cul- one level to another occurs continuously and tural; social; financial; legal; economic; gradually – from the level of performance to design, consulting. conscious activity, then to the management 5. Rational management style. system transformation and, finally, to the level 6. Public image. of the author’s management system. 7. Ability to conduct a dialogue with Better results are achieved gradually on different structures (communication skills). the basis of professional and personal 8. Ability to perceive and generate new characteristics, acquired skills. The research ideas, actively participate in their imple- level is based on operational, tactical and mentation. Focus on innovation. strategic levels. The efficiency of admi- 9. Personal contribution to the deve- nistrative work increases, professional lopment prospects of the industry or enter- behavior demonstrates positive changes, prise (the own evidence-based management management quality improves.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 167 Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment

Table 1. Characteristic of the levels of professional competence development and the head’s ability to achieve results

Level of professional competence development No. Characteristics of the head’s activity and achieved results and the head’s ability to achieve results

1. Level of performance (operational level) Initial level of development of the professional competence to manage the industry (enterprise). It is based on acquiring experience of practical management activity. Head – a contractor

2. Level of conscious activity (tactical level) The head gains management experience. He/she operates on the basis of the scientific approach and experience of conscious practical activity. His/her competence includes the application of knowledge in a significant range of complex and non-standard work, carried out in different circumstances. He/she becomes autonomous. Head – an autonom

3. Level of the management system transformation The head’s activity is creative, based on the systematic scientific (strategic level) approach and experience to solve strategic problems of the industry (enterprise). Head – a reformer, strategist

4. Level of the author’s management system (research Methodologically sound management. Combination of academic and level) professional interests. Initiative to develop the author’s management system Head – a researcher

Source: compiled by the author.

The managerial performance was empi- carried out by ISEDT RAS (2001–2012) rically validated in two studies conducted by [2, 3, 17]. We considered the results of the ISEDT RAS in May–June and December head’s self-assessment and the estimate of 2013 in the framework of the research in the efficiency of management activities. quality management in the social sphere of Two methods were used: the region. 1. For self-assessment – “Analysis of the The research was based on normative conditions of functioning and development legal acts and policy documents of the of health care institutions in the context of Russian Federation and the Vologda Oblast; the industry modernization”. The method data of the Federal State Statistics Service and is based on the survey of heads of urban its Territorial Body for the Vologda Oblast, and rural medical institutions, which was departmental statistics of the Department conducted by distributing questionnaires. of Healthcare of the Vologda Oblast; the The respondents rated 7 blocks of questions, database of the monitoring, revealing including the definition of indicators of the functioning of health care institutions, quality of management activities.

168 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.O. Kocheshkova

2. For the external evaluation – “Eva- demand and its direct participants, in this luation of the quality of and access to health case healthcare institutions. Half (51%) of services”. This method is based on the survey, the respondents give a positive assessment carried out in the Vologda Oblast. It takes into to the reforms, undertaken in the last 3 years account the managers’ performance: in the healthcare system, of which 62% were • openness and accessibility of infor- heads of medical institutions in Vologda mation about enterprises; and Cherepovets and only 35% – heads of • comfort of conditions and availability district hospitals. Thirty-seven percent of of services, including those for people with the respondents find it difficult to give an disabilities; estimate, predominantly head doctors of • waiting time in a queue to receive district hospitals (47%). This situation can services. be related to the working conditions of rural Both self-esteem and evaluation include and regional medical institutions. two indicators: professional conduct and In general, according to the survey, 54% work performance. of the respondents (50% of heads of munici- Forty-three head physicians of rural and pal medical institutions and 59% of rural urban health establishments in the Vologda hospitals) believe that the reforms are based Oblast took part in the survey. The “respondent on the strategic goal to improve the quality portrait” revealed personal and professional of and access to medical services. Moreover, characteristics of the surveyed managers. They 23.3% of all respondents mark the objective got a medical degree, 55.8% of respondents to save health resources. completed internship and 11.6% – residency. The head doctors’ idea to improve the Many heads obtained the second university functioning of health facilities is of particu- degree in management (65.1%). At the lar interest. These conditions promote their same time, it can be noted that no manager development. The respondents consider the completed a graduate program and had a following priority actions to ensure medical degree. institutions development: focus on result, The most important characteristics of the improved types of wages, standardization heads’ performance, in our opinion, are of medical services, development and obtained from their responses associated with introduction of new medical technologies, an indicator such as innovation. It includes quality control (tab. 2). both functioning and development of medical However, it should be noted that the institutions. survey of heads of medical institutions lacks This indicator is analyzed through the scientific justification and support for the assessment of modernization changes in development of the health care industry: the health care industry. The reform im- • development of fundamental and plementation requires the estimate of its applied biomedical research (0%);

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 169 Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment

Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: “Please, indicate what immediate measures should be taken so that your institution can not only function, but also develop?”, %

Vologda, Cherepovets Districts Oblast Answers in % in % in %

Concentrate financial resources and human resources on priority and innovative directions of medical science 34.6 5.9 23.3 development

Implement standards of medical care and clinical protocols 38.5 58.8 46.5

Develop new medical technologies for prevention, diagnosis, treatment of illnesses and rehabilitation of patients, substantiate the scope of their implementation, 42.3 47.1 44.2 implementation algorithms and monitoring of their application

Create a system of corporate responsibility for the quality 34.6 41.2 37.2 of medical care

Evaluate the performance of each member of the medical 65.4 70.6 67.4 staff depending on their performance

Use new forms of remuneration 53.8 76.5 62.8

Develop high-tech medical care 34.6 17.6 27.9

Source: compiled by the results of the survey of head physicians and their deputies working at the medical institutions in the Vologda Oblast, conducted by the ISEDT RAS Department for Studies of Lifestyles and Standards of Living in May–June 2013.

• planning and forecasting of biome- • creation of the system to implement the dical research (0%); results of scientific-technological activity in • formation of the medical services public health practice using different forms market based on the competition of scientific of public-private partnership, support for organizations of all forms of ownership (0%); small and medium business in medical • development of the innovation infra- science (11.6%). structure of medical science (2.3%); The analysis of the results has indicated a • application of basic research results, low level of scientific support for the aimed at broadening and deepening of new development of medical institutions. On the knowledge about nature and man, etiology, one hand, it discloses inactivity of the pato- and morphogenesis of the most personnel: head doctors underestimate common human diseases and carried out on the role of the research approach in the the basis of interdepartmental interaction institutions management, and, therefore, (4.7%); are not aware of its significance for

170 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.O. Kocheshkova

the development and improvement of their in 2013 the conditions in medical institutions professional competence. were “rather satisfactory than unsatisfactory” On the other hand, it indicates the lack of (19.2%). The situation in regional institutions an institutional framework of medical is characterized as satisfactory and it will not research activities: in the Vologda Oblast there change in the near future (tab. 3). are no medical higher education establishments The performance of hospitals is evaluated and scientific research institutions. higher than their conditions (tab. 4). And What is more, the analysis has revealed an- again, the urban health institutions have high other problem. According to 32% of the respon- ratings nowadays (57.7% of the respondents). dents, innovative management technologies are The district hospitals have satisfactory not used in their institutions. The heads do not estimates; this trend will not change in the develop their management competence; they short term (64.7% in 2010 versus 58.8% remain at the level of performance. And only in 2013). Almost no one characterizes the 39% of the respondents tend to be at the level efficiency of their institution as unsatisfactory. of conscious activity and strive for higher levels. Thus, according to the heads, they achieve The characteristics of the levels of results the results possible in the conditions of attainment (see table 1) and the managers’ limited funding, insufficient logistical support self-esteem indicate that the doctors in the and low wages. hospitals of the Vologda Oblast and their More than 76% of the heads of insti- deputies remain at the first level of managerial tutions assess the availability of medical competencies development out of four levels care provided by their institution to the identified at the beginning of this article. And population as satisfactory, while 11.8% most of them do not seek to develop and of them give an unsatisfactory estimate achieve better results. (tab. 5). This demonstrates uneven deve- To confirm this conclusion, it is necessary lopment of health facilities and availability to pay attention to how the head doctors and of a greater range of services for the urban their deputies evaluate the activities of population. medical institutions and answer the questions The assessment of medical care quality regarding the working conditions of medical reveals the same trend: 53.8% of the heads institutions and the obtained results. of urban medical institutions and 94.1% of Most head physicians believe that the heads of district ones characterize it as the conditions in medical institutions are satisfactory, and a quarter of the respondents “satisfactory”. This trend has continued for (by general data of the Vologda Oblast) argue three years and it will remain the same in the that the quality of the services, provided by short term. The conditions improved in urban their institution, c an be considered as high, medical establishments in 2012 compared to but it does no meet international standards 2010 (30.8% of the responses indicate it), but (tab. 6).

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 171 Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment

Table 3. Distribution of answers to the question: “How do you assess the general conditions of functioning and development of your institution in 2010–2013?”, %

2010 2011 2012 2013

Answer Districts Districts Districts Districts Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Cherepovets Cherepovets Cherepovets Cherepovets

Good, promote normal 19.2 5.9 19.2 5.9 30.8 11.8 23.1 5.9 functioning and development

Satisfactory 42.3 41.2 46.2 35.3 26.9 52.9 26.9 58.8

Rather satisfactory than 15.4 17.6 7.7 47.1 15.4 35.3 19.2 23.5 unsatisfactory

Rather unsatisfactory than 19.2 35.3 19.2 11.8 19.2 0.0 11.5 5.9 satisfactory

Extremely unsatisfactory 3.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 7.7 0.0 15.4 0.0

Difficult to answer 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 5.9

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2010–2013.

Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: “Evaluate the overall results of your institution’s activity to provide services to the population in 2010–2013?”, %

2010 2011 2012 2013

Answer Districts Districts Districts Districts Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Vologda, Cherepovets Cherepovets Cherepovets Cherepovets

Good, promote normal functioning and development 53.8 23.5 57.7 23.5 61.5 23.5 57.7 29.4

Satisfactory 38.5 64.7 38.5 64.7 30.8 64.7 30.8 58.8

Rather satisfactory than unsatisfactory 3.8 11.8 0.0 11.8 3.8 11.8 0.0 5.9

Rather unsatisfactory than satisfactory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0

Extremely unsatisfactory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Difficult to answer 3.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 7.7 5.9

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2010–2013.

172 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.O. Kocheshkova

Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: “Please, assess the level of access to medical assistance provided by your institution?”, %

Vologda, Answer Districts Oblast Cherepovets

High 19.2 11.8 16.3

Satisfactory 76.9 76.5 76.7

Low 0.0 11.8 4.7

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2013.

Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: “Please, assess the quality of medical assistance provided by your institution?”, %

Answer Vologda, Cherepovets Districts Oblast

High, it meets international standards 3.8 0.0 2.3

High, but it does not meet international standards 38.5 5.9 25.6

Satisfactory 53.8 94.1 69.8

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2013.

The critical problems, singled out by of the heads of district hospitals consider it as the head doctors, indicate that they do not a key problem); consider the introduction of innovations 5) high level of demand and burden on as a way to develop their institutions and institutions (26% of the respondents). are only concerned of current functioning. The second research was devoted to The reasons can be rather objective, the access to and quality of medical services, however, the heads have to make decisions and, hence, to the external evaluation of how to attain strategic goals in the current the performance of the heads of medical conditions. establishments. The head doctors and their deputies The study involved 1.500 people, including mention the following problems: the residents of Vologda (385 people), 1) lack of funding (70%); Cherepovets (391 people), districts (724 2) insufficient logistical support (63%); people). Moreover, it took into consideration 3) personnel shortage (63%); the results of the ISEDT RAS surveys, carried 4) low motivation of the specialists (53% out in 2010–2012.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 173 Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment

According to the population’s estimates, standing in a queue (more than half of the the access to medical services has remained region’s population till 2010, in 2012 and unchanged for a long time. In 2011 and 2013 2013 the number dropped to 50% and 36%, 77% of the region’s residents were satisfied respectively). with the availability of the provided medical 2. Poor use of information and commu- services. nication technologies. The vast majority of At the same time, the sum of low rates the region’s residents (82%) do not use info- (22% for the region as a whole) exceeds the mats to arrange a visit to a doctor and only amount of high rates (14%) significantly. slightly more than half knows about their ex- Sixty-three percent of the residents assess istence. While 62% of the respondents admit the access to medical care as satisfactory that they do not have an opportunity to get an (tab. 7). appointment with a doctor via the Internet. The residents of districts and cities give 3. Payable services. Fourteen percent of similar assessments, but the villagers are less the population is dissatisfied with the need likely to give a high estimate of their access to pay for medical services. The prevalence to medical care than citizens (8% for of private medical establishments is de- municipalities against 18% for Vologda and monstrated by the significant share of 13% for Cherepovets). people (44%) who have spent money for People single out the following common treatment in the current year. Thirty-seven current problems: percent of the region’s residents recognize 1. Difficulty to get an appointment that they do not spend money on treat- with a doctor at a convenient time without ment.

Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: “Please, assess the overall access to medical services”, % (2013)

Answers Vologda Cherepovets Districts Oblast

High 4.2 0.5 1.9 2.1

Rather high 17.9 13.0 8.3 12.0

Satisfactory 54.8 66.5 65.2 62.9

Rather low 15.8 12.3 14.6 14.3

Low 5.5 5.9 8.8 7.2

Medical services are completely 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 unavailable

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2013.

174 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.O. Kocheshkova

4. Personnel shortage. Thirty-four per- The important characteristic of medical cent of the population in 2012 and forty-two care is its quality. – in 2013 indicated the shortage of necessary The assessment of the medical services specialists. In addition, people remain con- quality in the Vologda Oblast has undergone cerned about doctors’ rude behavior (18% in significant changes during the period of 2012 and 13% in 2013), inattentiveness (24% the Modernization Program implementa- against 16%, respectively). tion (2011–2013). In 2011 78% of the popu- 5. Territorial remoteness of health faci- lation was more or less satisfied with the lities. Seven percent of the residents of medical services quality; in 2013 this figure municipalities and one-two percent of rose to 82%. Sixty-four percent of the the residents of large cities indicate it region’s residents estimated it as satisfac- (tab. 8). tory (tab. 9).

Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: “How much time does it take you to get to a doctor?”, % (2013)

Answers Vologda Cherepovets Districts Oblast

About half an hour 49.1 57.0 36.2 44.9

About an hour 32.2 34.5 34.9 34.1

One–two hours 9.1 4.3 4.6 5.7

More than two hours 2.1 0.8 6.9 4.1

Difficult to answer 7.5 3.3 17.4 11.2

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2013

Table 9. Distribution of answers to the question: “How do you assess the quality of medical care?” (in % of the number of respondents), 2013

Answer Vologda Cherepovets Districts Oblast

Very good 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.5

Rather good 24.4 18.7 11.9 16.9

Satisfactory 57.1 60.1 69.2 63.7

Bad 14.0 16.1 15.1 15.1

Very bad 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.6

Source: data of ISEDT RAS sociological research, 2013

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 175 Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment

The difference in assessments of health Head doctors can solve the problems of care quality between the population of large accessibility and quality of medical services cities and municipalities is that the rural and encourage the use of information and residents are less likely to give high ratings communication technologies (infomats) in than the residents of the cities of Vologda and order to reduce the waiting time in a queue. Cherepovets (13.1 and 46.5%, respectively). They can attract personnel and define ethical Answering the questions about the quality norms of their interaction with patients – of and access to health services, the population consumers of services. does not give a clear assessment of either The access to and quality of services the current situation in the health care or provided by medical institutions can be the performance of the heads of medical enhanced by improved professional com- institutions. On the one hand, directly or petence of doctors and their deputies, indirectly people indicate structural problems their mandatory transition from the ope- in the Russian health care that have been rational level to the research one. This hindering the access to health care. But, on requires continuous training and retraining the other hand, it is impossible not to notice in the system of additional professional positive changes in several areas of medical education, self-education, healthcare institutions’ activity, in citizens’ loyalty to facility management in modern conditions, health care in general and to each medical development of its academic programs and establishment in particular and, hence, to use of variable and multi-level approaches activities of the heads of these institutions. to learning.

Cited works 1. Grishchenko K.S. Comparative Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Efficient Functioning of the Health Care System. Issues of Economy and Management, 2013, no. 1 (17), pp. 26-34. 2. Duganov M.D. Evaluation of Efficiency of Health Care Expenditures at the Regional and Municipal Levels. Moscow: IEPP, 2007. 192 p. 3. Kalashnikov K.N., Shabunova A.A., Duganov M.D. Organizational-Economic Factors in the Management of the Regional Health System: Monograph. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2012. 153 p. 4. Quality of Services as an Object of Management. Availbale at: http://ooopht.ru/1174.html. 5. Kocheshkova L.O. Development of Innovative Competence of the Head of Rural Secondary Schools Dissertation Abstract Ph.D. in Sociology. Yaroslavl’, 2007. 204 p. 6. Kochurov E.V. Estimation of the Performance of Treatment-and-Prevention Institutions: Comparative Analysis of Methods and Models. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Ser. 8. 2005,no. 3, pp. 100-120. 7. Method to Estimate the Performance of Enforcement Authorities of RF Subjects: Protocol no. 1 of July 18, 2007. Available at: http://www.primorsky.ru/files/5584.doc 8. Ozhegov S.I., Shvedova N.Yu. Explanatory Dictionary of the (Online Version). Available at: http: // www.classes.ru/all-russian/Russian-dictionary-Ozhegov-term-3715.

176 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT L.O. Kocheshkova

9. Major Indicators of Activity of Health Care Institutions of the Vologda Oblast for 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009. Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast, Vologda, 2000; 2002; 2004; 2006; 2007; 2008; 2009; 2010. 10. Evaluation of Personnel Activity. Available at: http://www.vuzlib.org/beta3/html/1/5443/5478/. 11. Indicators of the Availability and Quality of Medical Care. Available at: http://www.9hospital.ru/pokazateli- dostupnosti-i-kachestva-med-pomoschi/pokazateli-dostupnosti-i-kachestva-meditsinskoy-pomoschi. 12. Public Report on the Activities of the Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast in 2012. Vologda, 2013. 30 p. 13. Public Report on the Activities of the Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast in 2013. Vologda, 2014. 28 p. 14. Management Performance. Available at: http://infomanagement.ru/lekciya/Rezultativnost_upravleniya (accessed January 16, 2013). 15. Glossary of Crisis Management. Available at: http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/anticris/72618. 16. Chubarova T.V. Management of Medical Institutions: Methodological Approaches and New Trends. Health management, 2000, no. 1, pp. 8-15. 17. Shabunova A.A., Kalashnikov K.N., Kalachikova O.N. Public Health and Health Care of the Territory. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2010. 284 p. 18. Gosudarstvennoe_upravlenie_zdravoohraneniem_v_Rossiiiskoii_Federacii.html#n_256. 19. Efficiency of Health Care in the Region. Group of authors under the guidance of Doctor of Economics, Professor V.A. Ilyin. Vologda: VNKTs TsEMI RAN, 2006. 192 p.

References 1. Grishchenko K.S. Sravnitel’nyi analiz faktorov, vliyayushchikh na effektivnost’ funktsionirovaniya sistemy zdravookhraneniya [Comparative Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Efficient Functioning of the Health Care System]. Problemy ekonomiki i menedzhmenta [Issues of Economy and Management], 2013, no. 1 (17), pp. 26- 34. 2. Duganov M.D. Otsenka effektivnosti raskhodov na zdravookhranenie na regional’nom i munitsipal’nom urovnyakh [Evaluation of Efficiency of Health Care Expenditures at the Regional and Municipal Levels]. Moscow: IEPP, 2007. 192 p. 3. Kalashnikov K.N., Shabunova A.A., Duganov M.D. Organizatsionno-ekonomicheskie faktory upravleniya regional’noi sistemoi zdravookhraneniya: monografiya [Organizational-Economic Factors in the Management of the Regional Health System: Monograph]. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2012. 153 p. 4. Kachestvo uslugi kak ob’ekt upravleniya [Quality of Services as an Object of Management]. Availbale at: http:// ooopht.ru/1174.html. 5. Kocheshkova L.O. Razvitie innovatsionnoi kompetentnosti rukovoditelya sel’skoi srednei obshcheobrazovatel’noi shkoly: dis. na soisk. uch. st. kand. ped. nauk [Development of Innovative Competence of the Head of Rural Secondary Schools; Ph.D. in Sociology Dissertation Abstract]. Yaroslavl’, 2007. 204 p. 6. Kochurov E.V. Otsenka effektivnosti deyatel’nosti lechebno-profilakticheskikh uchrezhdenii: sravnitel’nyi analiz metodov i modelei [Estimation of the Performance of Treatment-and-Prevention Institutions: Comparative Analysis of Methods and Models]. Vestnik SPbGU [Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University]. Ser. 8. 2005, no. 3, pp. 100-120.

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7. Metodika otsenki effektivnosti deyatel’nosti organov ispolnitel’noi vlasti sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii: protokol № 1 ot 18 iyulya 2007 g. [Method to Estimate the Performance of Enforcement Authorities of RF Subjects: Protocol no. 1 of July 18, 2007]. Available at: http://www.primorsky.ru/files/5584.doc 8. Ozhegov S.I., Shvedova N.Yu. Tolkovyi slovar’ russkogo yazyka (onlain-versiya) [Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language (Online Version)]. Available at: http: // www.classes.ru/all-russian/Russian-dictionary- Ozhegov-term-3715. 9. Osnovnye pokazateli deyatel’nosti uchrezhdenii zdravookhraneniya Vologodskoi oblasti za 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009 gg. [Major Indicators of Activity of Health Care Institutions of the Vologda Oblast for 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009]. Departament zdravookhraneniya Vologodskoi oblasti [Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast], Vologda, 2000; 2002; 2004; 2006; 2007; 2008; 2009; 2010. 10. Otsenka deyatel’nosti personala [Evaluation of Personnel Activity]. Available at: http://www.vuzlib.org/beta3/ html/1/5443/5478/. 11. Pokazateli dostupnosti i kachestva meditsinskoi pomoshchi [Indicators of the Availability and Quality of Medical Care]. Available at: http://www.9hospital.ru/pokazateli-dostupnosti-i-kachestva-med-pomoschi/pokazateli- dostupnosti-i-kachestva-meditsinskoy-pomoschi. 12. Publichnyi doklad o rezul’tatakh deyatel’nosti Departamenta zdravookhraneniya Vologodskoi oblasti za 2012 g [Public Report on the Activities of the Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast in 2012]. Vologda, 2013. 30 p. 13. Publichnyi doklad o rezul’tatakh deyatel’nosti Departamenta zdravookhraneniya Vologodskoi oblasti za 2013 g [Public Report on the Activities of the Department of Health Care of the Vologda Oblast in 2013]. Vologda, 2014. 28 p. 14. Rezul’tativnost’ upravleniya [Management Performance]. Available at: http://infomanagement.ru/lekciya/ Rezultativnost_upravleniya (accessed January 16, 2013). 15. Slovar’ terminov antikrizisnogo upravleniya [Glossary of Crisis Management]. Available at: http://dic.academic. ru/dic.nsf/anticris/72618. 16. Chubarova T.V. Upravlenie meditsinskimi uchrezhdeniyami: metodologicheskie podkhody i novye tendentsii [Management of Medical Institutions: Methodological Approaches and New Trends]. Upravlenie zdravookhraneniem [Health Management], 2000, no. 1, pp. 8-15. 17. Shabunova A.A., Kalashnikov K.N., Kalachikova O.N. Obshchestvennoe zdorov’e i zdravookhranenie territorii [Public Health and Health Care of the Territory]. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2010. 284 p. 18. Gosudarstvennoe_upravlenie_zdravoohraneniem_v_Rossiiiskoii_Federacii.html#n_256. 19. Effektivnost’ zdravookhraneniya regiona [Efficiency of Health Care in the Region]. Group of authors under the guidance of Doctor of Economics, Professor V.A. Ilyin. Vologda: VNKTs TsEMI RAN, 2006. 192 p.

178 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast ROUND TABLE: SOCIETY AND SOCIOLOGY IN MODERN RUSSIA

UDC 316.42, LBC 60.52 © Morev M.V. Importance of sociological knowledge at the present stage of development of the Russian society

Mikhail Vladimirovich MOREV Ph.D. in Economics, Research Associate, Head of the Laboratory, Federal State- Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article considers the reasons that determine the importance of data obtained in the course of sociological research. The author shows the role of sociological knowledge as one of the key factors in consolidation and development of modern Russian society. Key words: sociological knowledge, social development, consolidation, public opinion, public administration.

Modern Russian society is on the verge of 1990s, when the Soviet Union collapsed. At fundamental changes. In our opinion, they that time the state did not need information touch upon not only economic, but also about public perception of the state, the cultural, moral and ideological sides of life. assessment of their reforms; there was Today sociology, the issues it considers and no clearly formulated question for the the information it gives, play a particularly scientific community. Sociological studies significant role. Considering sociological were often subject to marketing goals. The knowledge as one of key factors in the country consequences of “the raucous 1990s” are development, we mean a new milestone in still felt in the development of the economic the development of Russian sociology. The and demographic situation, and largely due reasons are discussed in this article. to this period the Russians have such social First, Russia experienced indigenous perception. For example, the modern idea of breaking of the development paradigm in the the Russian society development is mainly

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 179 Importance of sociological knowledge at the present stage of development of the Russian society

In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Change in 2013 +/- to Indicator 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000 2012

Strengthening Russia’s international standing

Successful 42.3 47.9 58.4 55.1 49.5 49.9 46.2 43.1 45.6 +3 +3

Unsuccessful 30.9 33.8 24.9 23.7 30.4 29.3 33.7 37.9 36.2 +5 -2

Imposing order in the country

Successful 31.4 41.9 53.2 48.2 39.1 41.1 36.6 35.4 39.4 +8 +4

Unsuccessful 49.2 45.1 34.0 34.2 43.5 42.5 50.0 50.7 47.5 -2 -3

Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms

Successful 23.5 33.6 44.4 39.9 36.7 36.3 32.4 28.8 31.8 +8 +3

Unsuccessful 43.8 47.0 37.0 35.9 41.5 42.6 48.3 52.3 51.0 +7 -1

Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare

Successful 25.6 35.1 47.2 36.7 31.6 33.5 30.7 28.5 31.3 +6 +3

Unsuccessful 52.9 50.8 39.1 46.0 52.4 51.6 56.1 57.9 56.8 +4 -1

Source: monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya ISERT RAN [ISEDT RAS public opinion monitoring]. associated with the increased role of the government was popular in the early 2000s, state in almost all key areas of public life: and remains relevant in the present time. social, economic, cultural, etc. (hence, the Not surprisingly, the President’s actions to question appears about how to improve the restore order in the country and enhance its efficiency of public administration). The international standing were always valued anti-social results of the reforms in the 1990s higher than the actions to defend democracy and impoverishment of the population have and facilitate freedoms of citizens (table). In become a basis for positive socio-political addition, according to ISEDT RAS surveys1, trends of the Russian society: the society is aware of the social hopelessness of radical 1 ISEDT RAS has been carrying out the Public opinion monitoring since 1996 once in two months in Vologda, reforms and the need to adopt new ways Cherepovets, and in eight districts of the oblast (Babayevsky of development, taking into account the District, Velikoustyugsky District, Vozhegodsky District, Gryazovetsky District, Kirillovsky District, Nikolsky District, interests of most Russian citizens [4, p. 11]. Tarnogsky District and Sheksninsky District). The volume of a sample population is 1500 people aged from 18 and older. V. Putin’s policy, aimed at strengthening Representativeness of the sample is ensured by the observance the vertical of power, got broad public of the proportions between the urban and rural population, the proportions between the inhabitants of settlements of various support that was a logical consequence of types (rural communities, small and medium-sized cities), age the population’s “fatigue” of economic and sex structure of the oblast’s adult population. The method of the survey is a questionnaire poll by place of residence of instability and mistrust of government. Strong respondents. Sampling error does not exceed 3%.

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Mortality rate from suicide in Russia and the Vologda Oblast (per 100 thousand people)

70 62.2 57.4 57.3 60 56.7 54.5 55.6 53.8 52.7 52.5 52.3 52.2

50 46.9 42.6 40.9 39.2 40 35.2 42.1 41.4 31.1 31 39.3 39.2 39.1 39.5 38.4 38.2 37.5 29.4 35.3 36.1 30 34.3 26.5 25.7 31.1 32.2 24.2 30.1 29.1 23 26.5 26.5 27.1 26.5 20.8 20 23.4 21.8 20.5 Threshold 20.1 10

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Russian Federation Vologda Oblast

Source: Baza dannykh Federal’noi sluzhby gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Database of the Federal State Statistics Service]. Available at: www.gks.ru. in 2000–2013 20–28% of the Vologda Oblast and, particularly, of suicides. Its rate still population considered the issues to restore exceeds the critical indicator set by the World order in the country as priority for Russia’s Health Organization (figure). The economic President, 26–35% – the issues to strengthen consequences of the crises, levelling off Russia’s international standing. Only 6–10% much faster than the consequences of social of the population in the region believed that maladjustment of a person [3] are complex the head of state was concerned with the in nature and reflected in almost all spheres problem of democratic rights and freedoms, of public life. however, more than 60% of the region’s The low level of trust to the public residents supported the President during the authorities, social atomism, social period under study. fragmentation, political indifference, the It is also important to note that the Soviet low level of civil society development, Union collapse was primarily a problem of inactivity of civic and political participation psychological character. There is the following are those problems that modern Russian evidence: a dramatic increase in the number society “inherited” from the 1990s. These of social pathologies (including youth), problems would be avoided if the Russians

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 181 Importance of sociological knowledge at the present stage of development of the Russian society

preserved the feeling that they could influence state development; the high level of income the situation in the country, they had their does not always guarantee satisfaction with own voice and that voice could be heard in life; the growth of wealth is not always the higher echelons of power. Sociological accompanied by the signs of increasing science should and could solve the problems, happiness [7, p. 137]. But this is a global if the state were interested. practice. Today sociology and authorities face In Russia, and especially at the present mostly similar tasks. The President urges to stage of social development, the role of the strengthen the vertical of power, consolidate “subjective factor” and, accordingly, of the society and strive for a national idea sociological knowledge, reflecting its essence, and increase the role of society in making is growing. This is facilitated by at least three management decisions. simultaneously acting factors. Hence, the authorities are aware that the The first one is specific features of Russian consolidation of society, overcoming of the mentality. As according to the RF President “gap” between the population and the state V.V. Putin, it is “our genetic code”, based on is the only way to maintain order in the values, ideas of the highest moral purpose of country and credibility to the current political a man, some higher moral principles [5]. In course of development in general (which the last 20–25 years, these values were not is especially important in the framework of popular in the Russian society: in the 1990s – modernization, but also on the background due to the instable economic situation and the of instability on the international political specifics of the spiritual and value priorities of arena). that time; in the 2000s – due to the society’s Second, sociological knowledge, striving for stabilization in the broad sense disclosing the relationship of social processes of the word (stabilization of the economy, and phenomena taking place in the society, quality of life, overcoming of negative trends considers the subjective factor of social in the demographic situation, social sphere, development, which, according to etc.). J.T. Toshchenko, “plays a significant and However, being the essential features of increasingly important role among the the national character, they could not factors that determine the content and the disappear, and existed at the latent level. As vector of changes in the world and in our a result, according to M.K. Gorshkov, post- country” [6, p. 32]. reform Russia concentrated a huge socio- It is obvious that the official statistics psychological resource, serving as a basis for does not provide a complete picture of the the modernization breakthrough, which the society development. For example, numerous Russian society needs desperately today, [2, p. studies show that macroeconomic indicators 6]. Only nowadays “the genetic code” of the do not always reflect the real level of the Russian society (returning to the President’s

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words) is considered as “one of our main which take place in the conditions of the competitive advantages in today’s world”. key factors that do not depend on internal This awareness at all government levels is political decisions. Consolidation of the the second factor to make sociological knowledge Russian society under the influence of the relevant. The ideology, based on scientific “external factor” (the situation in Ukraine) is knowledge, can be regarded as realistic. natural and obvious; however, in our opinion, Otherwise, it is illusory [8]. this phenomenon is temporary. The third factor is a time factor. The To assess the actual convergence of the public polls have revealed the rapid growth state and society, as well as representatives of the population’s support for the President’s of various social strata, it is necessary to activities. The positive trends (albeit less analyze the situation when the state is vivid) are observed in relation to other focused on solving urgent problems of the authorities. However, it is clear that public population, such as the increase in the opinion today largely depends on how standard of living and quality of life, social the situation is developing in Ukraine, development, etc. what political stance the President has in So, it is better to consider the trends of relations with Kiev, the United States and public opinion in retrospect. The sociological some Western European countries. Russian surveys results show that the assessment of the and foreign organizations, engaged in authorities before “Ukrainian events” was the study of public opinion, note that the not so positive. During the 2000s when consolidation processes unfold against this the population raised questions not about background. relations with the West, but about growth in In other words, the Russian society is salaries and pensions, the level of approval consolidated due to “external threats”, and of key state institutions remained unchanged the greater the threat, the more mass media (increased support was not more than 5% provides information about the economic per year) and during the presidency of D.A. sanctions of the West or flagrant actions Medvedev even decreased (from 76 to 64%, of Kiev authorities, the more cohesive the according to VTSIOM, from 73 to 52%, Russian society becomes, the more it supports according to ISEDT RAS). the state. The society denounces the policy The beginning of the third term of Putin’s of Kiev and advances conceptual ideas about presidency was accompanied by a slight the contrast between Western and Russian increase in the level of approval, but it was civilizations. short-term. As a consequence, in 2013 the But, in our opinion, no state should and level of approval of V. Putin was 54–56%, can build long-term plans and forecasts, according to ISEDT RAS, and 60–63%, based on the figures of official statistics and, according to VTSIOM, and this figure did especially, the data of sociological surveys, not change significantly.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 183 Importance of sociological knowledge at the present stage of development of the Russian society

Thus, the data of sociological studies warn element in mediating between the state and that after the resolution of the crisis in society and thus contribute to the further Ukraine, the problems of living standards process of social development. According to growth, overcoming inequality, social M.K. Gorshkov, “we get used to a fairly mild protection and social justice will become formula “sociological support”... but I think relevant again and the government will have that is not enough, we need a more deep and to manage them, because the social patience serious look at this interaction. This is not of the Russians may be not as great as in the about support, but about real, meaningful early and mid-2000s. inclusion. And not when we have to deal The simultaneous impact of the above with inconsistent management decisions, factors – specificity of sociological knowledge, but preferably in the earlier stages, when the its demand on the part of authorities and need solution is only ripening... We are talking to act “for the future” – gives an opportunity about “social participation”, at least, we insist to speak about the conditions under which on this term now, and I think it should be even social science can and should become a key strengthened in the future” [1].

Cited works 1. Gorshkov M.K. Topical Issues of Modern Russian Society: Scientific Approaches and Practice: Public Lecture (Vologda, June 20, 2014). 2. Gorshkov M.K. Russian Sociology and the Challenges of Modern Society: in lieu of a Preface. A Reforming Russia: Yearbook, 2010, no.9, pp. 3-19. 3. Ivanov I. Undeclared War. Available at: http://www.sakha.ru/sakha/smi/gazeta/yakutia/n29326/25-62.html 4. Levashov V.K. Russia at the Bifurcation of Socio-Political Trajectories of Development. Public Opinion Monitoring, 2011, no.3(103), pp. 5-23. 5. Televised Phone-In with President V.V. Putin: Transcript. The Russian Newspaper: http://www.rg.ru/2014/04/17/ liniya-site.html 6. Toshchenko J.T. Social Mood – a Phenomenon of Sociological Theory and Practice. Sociological Studies, 1998, no.1, pp. 21-35. 7. Shabunova A.A., Morev M.V. Vologda Residents’ Notions of Happiness. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, trends, Forecast, 2013, no.1, pp. 137-150. 8. Yadov V.A. Strategy of Sociological Research. Available at: http://www.isras.ru/publ.html?id=585

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References 1. Gorshkov M.K. Aktual’nye problemy sovremennogo rossiiskogo obshchestva: nauchnye podkhody i praktika: publichnaya lektsiya (g. Vologda, 20 iyunya 2014 g.) [Topical Issues of Modern Russian Society: Scientific Approaches and Practice: Public Lecture (Vologda, June 20, 2014)]. 2. Gorshkov M.K. Rossiiskaya sotsiologiya i vyzovy sovremennogo obshchestva: vmesto predisloviya [Russian Sociology and the Challenges of Modern Society: in lieu of a Preface]. Rossiya reformiruyushchayasya: Ezhegodnik [A Reforming Russia: Yearbook], 2010, no.9, pp. 3-19. 3. Ivanov I. Neob»yavlennaya voina [Undeclared War]. Available at: http://www.sakha.ru/sakha/smi/gazeta/yakutia/ n29326/25-62.html 4. Levashov V.K. Rossiya na razvilke sotsiopoliticheskikh traektorii razvitiya [Russia at the Bifurcation of Socio- Political Trajectories of Development]. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya [Public Opinion Monitoring], 2011, no.3(103), pp. 5-23. 5. Pryamaya liniya s Prezidentom RF V.V. Putinym: stenogramma [Televised Phone-In with President V.V. Putin: Transcript]. Rossiiskaya gazeta [The Russian Newspaper]: http://www.rg.ru/2014/04/17/liniya-site.html 6. Toshchenko J.T. Sotsial’noe nastroenie – fenomen sotsiologicheskoi teorii i praktiki [Social Mood – a Phenomenon of Sociological Theory and Practice]. SOTsIS [Sociological Studies], 1998, no.1, pp. 21-35. 7. Shabunova A.A., Morev M.V. Predstavleniya vologzhan o schast’e [Vologda Residents’ Notions of Happiness]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, trends, Forecast], 2013, no.1, pp. 137-150. 8. Yadov V.A. Strategiya sotsiologicheskogo issledovaniya [Strategy of Sociological Research]. Available at: http:// www.isras.ru/publ.html?id=585

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UDC 316.43 (470.57), LBC 60.52(2Rus.Bashk.) © Lavrenyuk N.M. Possibilities of sociological knowledge to promote intellectual development of the region: experience of practical application in the Republic of Bashkortostan

Natal’ya Mikhailovna LAVRENYUK Ph.D. in Sociology, Associate Professor, Senior Research Associate, Bashkir Branch of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Federal State- Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Political and Legal Researches of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Federal State-Financed Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education Bashkir State University

Abstract. Development of modern Russian society is based on intellectual potential and its capitalization. Knowledge and competence of its development play a key role in this complex system process. Competence possibilities of sociological knowledge should have a prospective nature of accumulation and be effectively applied in the regions of the country. State bodies realize the need for intellectual development. Strategic targets and program activities are developing to stimulate this process in the regions. In the Republic of Bashkortostan sociologists are involved in this process. Key words: sociological knowledge, intellectual development, possibilities and limitations, practical application.

The modern development of the society is adoption of the “Declaration of Principles”. It focused on the accumulation of intellectual declares the common desire and commitment capacity and its capitalization. It is recognized to build a people-centered, inclusive and by the international community. The first development-oriented Information Society, phase of the World Summit in Geneva where everyone can create, access, utilize and in 2003, devoted to the contradictions of share information and knowledge, enabling information society as a global humanity individuals, communities and peoples to goal in the third Millennium, resulted in the achieve their full potential in promoting

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their sustainable development and improving Over the last hundred years in the region, their quality of life [1, p. 59-87]. People’s as in the country as a whole, the educational social activity is becoming more intelligent. potential of the adult population has been Knowledge becomes the main resource of developing. According to the 2010 census, the human development. Being applied in the education level of the adult population has been practical sphere in order to obtain economic, growing, but the average growth rate is lower political, cultural, scientific-technological than in Russia and the Federal District. and social effect, it turns into innovations that There is a gap between intellectual poten- stimulate the growth of new knowledge. Thus, tial and its capitalization, as in the Republic the triad “knowledge–money–knowledge” is of Bashkortostan there is asymmetry between implemented in the society. the innovative activity of economic entities As sociological knowledge is to objectively (position in the top ten regions of the Russian correspond to, and sociological imagination is Federation) and the creation of advanced to stay ahead of the development processes of technologies and their use (position in society, we should have the mechanism to attract the fourth ten regions of the Russian Fede- investments in sociology, boost sociological ration) [2]. knowledge and promote its transformation The sociologists of the Republic of into sociological innovations that will lead to Bashkortostan contribute to the intellectual a new round. In this process there are certain development of the population. The rise of limitations at all stages. social science in the republic is associated The possibilities of sociological knowledge with N.A. Aitov, who created a sociological give an opportunity to study, predict and design laboratory at Ufa Aviation University in the intellectual development. The uniqueness of early 1960s. On the initiative of Professor cognitive sociological experience lies in the Dzh.M. Gilyazitdinov, the applicants of potential of retrospective and prospective study Bashkir State University can be admitted to of complex phenomena in the framework of a specialist program in Sociology since 1991 the self-developing professional competencies and a master degree program in Sociology of sociologists. The limit of professional since 1997. By 2000 the region has had four competences is enclosed in the phenomenon Dissertation Councils awarding degrees of of their half-disintegration and the sociologists’ Doctor of Sociology and Ph.D. in Sociology: ability for analysis, diagnosis and forecast. three – in Bashkir State University, one – in Despite a certain universality of sociological Ufa State Aviation Technical University. All knowledge, the sociologists in the regions know this contributes to the development of human their specifics and development characteristics potential in the field of sociology. Nowadays better. there are a number of sociological schools The Republic of Bashkortostan is a RF in universities and scientific institutions of subject, located at the crossroads of Europe the republic. In addition to social and liberal and Asia, rich in natural, infrastructural, training, theoretical and applied sociological human, social, cultural and other resources. research is carried out, its results are published.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 187 Possibilities of sociological knowledge to promote intellectual development of the region: experience of practical...

There are research-to-practice conferences The concept is aimed at forming an and other events of international, national, ideology of development of the program interregional and republican level. Experts- “Formation and development of the intel- sociologists participate in the development of lectual property market in the Republic state programs and strategies. of Bashkortostan”. It pursues a number of The possibilities of sociological know- objectives. ledge and competencies of sociologists are The goals are connected with the analysis implemented to promote intellectual deve- of the level of development of the regional lopment of the region. The Regional Centre intellectual property market, with the elabo- for Innovation and employees of the Social ration of the system principles to foster Engineering Sector of the Center for the innovation performance on the basis of Study of Human Potential at the Institute of intellectual property commercialization, with Socio-Political and Legal Researches of the the formation of the approaches to create Republic of Bashkortostan in November 2012 the system of intellectual property use, with initiated the drafting of the strategy for the the development of the infrastructure model development of intellectual property market in and the staffing of market development, with the Republic of Bashkortostan. The Ministry of the modelling of state-market intellectual Industry and Innovation Development of the property management and legal regulation, Republic of Bashkortostan formed the Advisory with the design of the mechanism to monitor Council and the working group, but after the establishment and development of the several meetings the work was discontinued. intellectual property market. The development of the state document “from Despite the mention of the develop- below” did not succeed. ment of intellectual property market in In January 2014 due to the Decision of the several legal documents of the Republic of Intellectual Property Council for Chair of Bashkortostan, which have already been Federation Council and Article II “On the adopted and are being implemented or development and submission for approval to the developing (“Promotion of innovative activity Government of the Republic of Bashkortostan in the Republic of Bashkortostan”, “Strategy of the draft program “Development of the for investment development of the Republic intellectual property market in the Republic of Bashkortostan to 2020”, the project of Bashkortostan for 2014–2030”, list of the “Strategy for development of scientific Government decrees adopted at the session and innovation activity in the Republic of “On the development of science in the Republic Bashkortostan to 2020”, “Development of of Bashkortostan” (December 18, 2013), industry and increase in its competitiveness participation of colleagues from the Republic for 2014–2020” (currently is not developed), of , a draft concept of the subprogram it is not clear, part of which program the sub- for development of the intellectual property program “Formation and development of market in the Republic of Bashkortostan was intellectual property market in the Republic developed. of Bashkortostan” will be.

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Thus, the region has not only sufficient capa- means of a constructive dialogue and integration city to target intellectual development, but also of the efforts of academic experts, representatives destructive limitations that can be eliminated by of state authorities and local communities.

Cited Works 1. Lenskii B. V. Research and Materials. Moscow: Nauka, 2006. 2. Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. 2013: Statistics Digest. Rosstat, Moscow, 2013. 499 p. 3. Sociologists of the Republic of Bashkortostan: Handbook. Ufa: Vostochnaya pechat’, 2012.

References 1. Lenskii, B.V. Issledovanie i materialy [Research and Materials] / B.V. Lenskii. Moscow: Nauka, 2006. 2. Regiony Rossii. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie pokazateli. 2013: statsbornik [Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators. 2013: Statistics Digest]. Rosstat, Moscow, 2013. 499 p. 3. Sotsiologi Bashkortostana: spravochnik [Sociologists of the Republic of Bashkortostan: Handbook]. Ufa: Vostoch- naya pechat’, 2012.

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UDC 316.422, LBC 60.5 © Guzhavina T.A. Trust in the context of non-economic factors in modernization development

Tat’yana Anatol’evna GUZHAVINA Ph.D. in Philosophy, Associate Professor, Leading Scientific Associate, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article considers the problem of non-economic factors in modernization development of the region; in recent years this issue has attracted increasing attention of scientists. Nowadays the importance of these factors has become generally accepted in economic science; these factors are studied by sociology. Trust can also be considered as a non-economic factor. It appears as one of the “expensive” non-economic assets. Many economic processes, such as investment banking, marketing, etc., are based on it. Trust can be viewed as a comprehensive response to risk. It creates the environment in which various economic subjects interact. The article assesses the level of trust in the region on the basis of the analysis of public opinion of the Vologda Oblast residents. The author comes to the conclusion about the necessity to raise the level of trust in the region. It requires implementation of certain social policy. For this purpose a programme of measures can be developed based on socio-economic diagnostics of the region. Key words: non-economic factors, modernization, region, trust, sociology.

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The problem of non-economic factors in Lack of trust can block these areas. Trust is development has become acute [1, 2, 3]. The especially important, as the modernization economic science has experienced fun- processes in the regions acquire specificity damental changes due to this. In recent due to their differences and features. So, it is decades the researchers have been focused possible to single out plural modernization. on the interdisciplinary approach and the The polyparadigmatic approach is app- connection of economic methods with lied to analyze the processes related to social methods of other sciences. As a result, trust. It uses the resources of classical and political, legal, and psychological issues neoclassical sociology and postclassics – can be included in the analysis. Economic modernism. The most appropriate research research correlates with psychological, approach to the study of the local environment cultural, political and sociological studies. is constructivism, which pays great attention The “non-economic” variables, which to the study of consciousness and human comprise socio-political, structural, psy- behavior. This concept helps to consider the chological, geographical factors, are taken ways of creation of various social phenomena, into account, along with the key economic including trust, that become traditions. determinants of growth. The influence Different aspects of trust can be studied of non-economic factors is weaker, less by means of specific sociological research, stable, their effect is ambiguous. Limited carried out at inter-country, national and rationality in human behavior is recognized. regional levels [5, 6]. ISEDT RAS conducts The mainstream of modern economics the monitoring of public opinion, revealing recognizes that people use not only the the state of social trust in the Vologda Oblast rational model of behavior, but other and the factors, influencing it1. First, we models, and make a valuable choice. The note that the Vologda Oblast is fairly well sociologists also pay attention to non- developed in economic terms; it is a region economic factors [2]. with high industrial potential. Its territory We single out one non-economic factor – comprises 1190000 people, or almost 1% of trust. Nowadays it is among the most the entire population in Russia. “expensive” non-economic assets.

Representing the total of socially sound 1 The article uses data for the 2000–2013 period. and socially confirmed expectations on the The survey was conducted by ISEDT RAS by means of the representative sampling. The sampling is targeted and part of individuals against other individuals, quota. Representativeness is ensured by the maintenance of enterprises, institutions, norms and rules proportions between rural and urban population, between residents of different types of settlements (, small that constitute the fundamental substance and medium-sized towns), the age and gender structure of life, trust supports the sustainability and of the population. The survey participants are the cities of Vologda and Cherepovets, and Babayevsky, Velikoustyugsky, integration of the society. Trust predetermines Vozhegodsky, Cherepovetsky, Kirillovsky, Nikolsky, Tarnogsky important economic processes: investment, and Sheksninsky districts. The sample size is 1500 people; the sampling error does not exceed 3%. The survey method is the saving, lending, stock activity, funding, etc. questioning of respondents at the place of their residence.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 191 Trust in the context of non-economic factors in modernization development

Distribution of answers to the question “Please, describe your attitude toward current government institutions and social structures” (answers “completely trust” and “mostly trust”), in % of the total number of respondents

Survey date

Answer 2000–2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 (average)

President 51.1 60.3 65.2 51.6 56.7 44.6

Government 38.9 41.9 60.2 46.7 52.3 38.6

Federation Council 29.1 34.9 47.6 35.9 38.3 32.7

State Duma 24.5 29.5 42.0 33.5 34.8 31.1

Regional government 30.8 40.6 48.6 34.9 41.1 36.4

Local government 26.6 32.3 40.9 33.1 34.3 31.6

Trade unions 26.5 28.6 35.9 28.1 30.2 25.3

Public organizations 20.0 24.4 32.6 23.8 27.7 24.1

Political parties 14.7 17.6 26.8 20.0 23.7 18.1

Source: Data of the monitoring of the economic situation and social wellbeing of the population, ISEDT, 2010–2013

The phenomenon of trust is studied at the At the level of regional governments it is institutional and interpersonal levels. We the Governor and the Government of the consider interpersonal trust as a basis for region. institutional trust. But this article does not The second group with an average level analyze it. Institutional trust is most clearly includes representative authorities – the State exemplified by trust in the state, because Duma and the Federation Council. Local it generates and maintains the standards governments present this group at the local and rules that organize the life of society. level. The third group with a low level Institutional trust at the level of a regional comprises public organizations, trade unions community manifests itself in the trust in and parties. Moreover, it is clear that the regional and local authorities (table). institutions that perform administrative The analysis of the data of public opinion functions are mostly trusted. The institutions, polls discloses that all institutions can be promoting the citizens’ interests, are divided into groups. unattractive. The other institutions are also The first group includes institutions with important for local communities, but their a high level of trust, which are represented by position is weakened by a lack of citizens’ the President and the Government of the trust. This, in turn, predetermines the weak- Russian Federation. ness of regional civil society.

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The influence of the executive institutions Summing it up, we note that the evalua- can be attributed to several reasons. tion of non-economic factors of develop- Firstly, these institutions have economic ment along with economic ones requires a opportunities due to available material comprehensive socio-economic analysis of resources. the region [4], which should be based on the Secondly, they create norms and rules, systemic, structural-functional, comparative control their execution, as they are eligible analysis. This would help to assess the state to impose sanctions. of the regional economic system, identify Thirdly, they form single social space, the deviations from normal development and consolidate society by means of setting goals single out the blocking factors. This diagnosis and objectives, manage their execution. should include economic diagnostics of Fourthly, historic memory indicates the the market, assessment of infrastructure, importance of these institutions in crisis characteristics of social and economic situations, which happened many times in entities. the country. The sociological monitoring is an im- Fifthly, the political culture of the Russian portant diagnostic method. All this will society tends to the paternalistic type and promote identification of the determinants contains a few features of the civil type. These of sustainable innovation development, factors clarify the low level of other institu- which is an impetus for modernization in tions. the region.

Cited works 1. Auzan A.A. Sociocultural Codes in Economic Analysis. The Journal of the New Economic Association, 2013, no.1(17), pp. 173-176. 2. Gorshkov M.K. On the Axiomatic Interpretation of the Economic Factors’ Impact on Economic Growth. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2014, no.3(33), pp. 45-56. 3. Ipatov P.L. Non-Economic Factors in the Growth of National Economy: Functional Use and Development: Doctor of Economics Dissertation Abstract. Saint Peterburg, 2009. 4. Surzhikov M.A. Socio-Economic Diagnostics of the Region as a Subject of International Trade. Available at: http:// cyberleninka.ru/article/n/sotsialno-ekonomicheskaya-diagnostika-regiona-kak-subekta- (accessed July 24, 2014). 5. Edelman Trust Barometer. Available at: http://www.edelman.com/insights/intellectual-property/2014-edelman- trust-barometer/trust-around-the-world/ 6. Levada Center. Available at: http://www.levada.ru/category/tegi/doverie

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 193 Trust in the context of non-economic factors in modernization development

References 1. Auzan A.A. Sotsiokul’turnye kody v ekonomicheskom analize [Sociocultural Codes in Economic Analysis]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii [The Journal of the New Economic Association], 2013, no.1(17), pp. 173-176. 2. Gorshkov M.K. Ob aksiomaticheskoi traktovke vliyaniya neekonomicheskikh faktorov na ekonomicheskii rost [On the Axiomatic Interpretation of the Economic Factors’ Impact on Economic Growth]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 2014, no.3(33), pp. 45-56. 3. Ipatov P.L. Neekonomicheskie faktory rosta natsional’noi ekonomiki: funktsional’noe ispol’zovanie i razvitie: avtoref. dis. na soisk. uch. st. dokt. kon. nauk [Non-Economic Factors in the Growth of National Economy: Functional Use and Development: Doctor of Economics Dissertation Abstract]. Saint Peterburg, 2009. 4. Surzhikov M.A. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskaya diagnostika regiona kak sub”ekta mezhdunarodnoi torgovli [Socio- Economic Diagnostics of the Region as a Subject of International Trade]. Available at: http://cyberleninka.ru/ article/n/sotsialno-ekonomicheskaya-diagnostika-regiona-kak-subekta- (accessed July 24, 2014). 5. Edelman Trust Barometer. Available at: http://www.edelman.com/insights/intellectual-property/2014-edelman- trust-barometer/trust-around-the-world/ 6. Levada-tsentr [Levada Center]. Available at: http://www.levada.ru/category/tegi/doverie

194 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast ROUND TABLE: SOCIETY AND SOCIOLOGY IN MODERN RUSSIA

UDC 316.334.52, LBC 60.5(2Rus.Bash) © Irnazarov R.I. Sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan

Rashit Ismagilovich IRNAZAROV Doctor of Sociology, Professor, Chief Research Associate, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Political and Legal Research of the Republic of Bashkortostan (15, Kirov Street, Ufa, [email protected])

Abstract. The article reveals the process of institutionalization of sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan, in particular, the scientific contribution of the first researchers – professors F.B. Sadykov and N.A. Aitov. Key words: society, sociology, sociological research, social relations and processes.

Considering society–sociology relations, The stated socialism foundations we should recognize that their interdependence presupposed its further development on the is very close. Society can not exist without basis of improvement of vital processes. sociological study; sociological doctrines Unfortunately, in our country the party “live” as long as they find confirmation in could not meet the challenge of real life. public organizations. In this regard, it is not Experiencing “hunger” of ideas, adequate quite correct to say that the Soviet society to life, it still blindly followed the theory, stood aside from sociology – the latter was proposing new slogans on the construction represented by Marxism. That is another of communism, causing the population’s matter that Marxism, aimed to “utterly skeptic attitude to the values of socialism. destroy the whole world”, did not approve Meanwhile, the importance of the study sociological, especially empirical, research, of life processes is becoming more and more as their results could hinder construction of urgent. The researchers from the Republic of a new world”. Bashkortostan made a significant contribu-

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 195 Sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan

tion to the revival of social science in our scientific basis, that is, on the basis of country. One of the first pioneers is Fahim research activities. Professor Nariman Beniyaminovich Sadykov (he was born in Abdrakhmanovich Aitov [2] is considered 1928, Novomuslimovo, Mechetlinsky District to be a pioneer. He headed the Department of the Republic of Bashkortostan, died in of Philosophy and Scientific Communism 1998), Doctor of Philosophy, Professor, at the Ufa Aviation Institute in 1964–1988. Head of the Department of the Bashkir State On his initiative in 1965 the institute University in 1969–1990. In the early 1950s opened the first sociological laboratory in he paid great attention to the study of the the republic. problems of efficiency of social institutions The sociologists studied pressing social functioning in the socialist society. In 1953 problems that require scientific understan- he defended his thesis on “The role of ding and development of practical measures Soviet science in the cultural and technical for their resolution. One of the first areas enthusiasm of employees”. It was one of the of sociological research in the Republic first works written on the basis of concrete of Bashkortostan is the development of sociological studies [1]. scientific and practical issues of social Over the years F.B. Sadykov studies the planning. Social planning is a tool to solve socialist society in general. In 1968 he problems of social development of labor published the work “Unity of the people collectives, communities and regions. It and contradictions of socialism”, revealing involves conducting research and making contradictions of socialism. recommendations in all areas of their activity. The work by F.B. Sadykov was criticized Thus, sociological research was not by the Ideological Commission headed by limited to one area, but had a complex Secretary of the CPSU CC M.A. Suslov as character already at the initial stage of anti-Soviet and revisionist. After a few sociology development in the republic. For decades F.B. Sadykov writes: “Many of the example, the plan of social development of ideas, put forward by me in the 1950–1960s the city stipulated activities in such areas as: and then officially critisized, were brought to optimization of the age and gender structure life with the beginning of perestroika... but it of the population; economic development was too late, the rooted processes of decay of the city; welfare and improvement of life of nomenklatura and the stagnation of the of the population; health promotion and barrack-type socialism had already ruled out development of physical culture and sports; the possibility of radical positive changes in development of education; regulation of the Soviet society” [1]. the social structure of the urban population Since the mid 1960s the development of and social relations; growth of cultural and sociological thought in the Republic of spiritual needs of the population; crime Bashkortostan has completely been on a prevention; ideological work.

196 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast ROUND TABLE: SOCIETY AND SOCIOLOGY IN MODERN RUSSIA R.I. Irnazarov

The results of the study were applied while planning, were transformed into independent preparing and implementing plans of social areas of sociological research. development of cities and agricultural In general, the Republic of Bashkortostan districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan conducted large-scale sociological research and other regions: Naberezhnye Chelny in the 1960–1980s. It became an independent (the Republic of Tatarstan), Kamyshin branch of scientific activity. The emerged (the ), Magnitogorsk and Bashkir sociological school was recognized Miass (the ), Surgut (the not only in our country but also abroad. Tyumen Oblast). The new stage in the development of Then, a number of scientific studies, sociological science in the republic began, as performed in the framework of social in Russia as a whole, in the early 1990s.

Cited works 1. Sadykov F.B. Specifics of Russian Civilization. Ufa: Gilem, 1998. P. 4. 2. Aitov N.A. Social Development of the Regions. Moscow: Mysl’, 1985. 220 p.

References 1. Sadykov F.B. Osobennost’ sovetskoi tsivilizatsii [Specifics of Russian Civilization]. Ufa: Gilem, 1998. P. 4. 2. Aitov N.A. Sotsial’noe razvitie regionov [Social Development of the Regions]. Moscow: Mysl’, 1985. 220 p.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 197 BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY

UDC 332.1, LBC 65.04(2Rus-4Vol) © Rokhchin V.E., Uskov V.S. Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

Vladimir Efimovich ROKHCHIN Doctor of Economics, Professor, Federal State-Financed Institution of Higher Professional Education “Saint Petersburg State University of Economics” (21, Sadovaya Street, Saint Petersburg, 191023, Russia, [email protected])

Vladimir Sergeevich USKOV Deputy Head of the Department, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. Enhancement of the regions’ self-sufficiency in handling their socio-economic development issues predetermines their increasing importance in the search for new sources of economic growth and improvement of the quality of life, an important characteristic of which is nutrition, including the consumption of fruit and berries. This issue is particularly relevant for the European North of Russia, where the development of its own fruit and berry production is constrained by climatic conditions. These territories can find a source of economic growth in the formation of the fruit and berry market with a significant potential for development based on the resources of wild fruits and berries that the northern regions are rich in. The article describes the main spheres of functioning of the fruit and berry market in the northern regions through the development of integrated network structures that promote integration of fruit and berry production and processing, as well as support on the part of the authorities in creating appropriate conditions for the normal functioning of the market. Key words: fruit and berry production, economic growth, region, territorial-industrial complex.

198 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov

The revival of economic growth and the In the conditions of market relations, the achievement of the goals of socio-economic majority of Russian enterprises specializing development of the territory are the priority in the production of fruit and berry products tasks for the regional government authori- have become unprofitable. The declining ties. Economic growth can be achieved by trend in the production is observed at fruit directing all the available potential toward and berry processing enterprises. Only the enhancement of competitiveness and about 20% of gross yield of fruits and berries increase of production of competitive goods, goes to processing. In the structure of effective and rational use of natural resources manufactured products more than 90% falls [9]. One of such natural resources is fruits and on the processing of fruits and berries for berries, the production of which is important canning, and the production of quick frozen for the regional economy, and for improving and dried fruit is only 0.5% [2]. the quality of life of the population. Serious problems are observed in the The transition of the Russian economy to sphere of producing the means of produc- market relations in the early 1990s has had tion for all the parts of the fruit-and-berry adverse effects on the development of the fruit subsector of agriculture. The domestic industry within the agro-industrial complex machinery lags behind its foreign coun- that is the main supplier of cultivated fruits terparts in performance (in 2 times), has and berries to the market. Their production higher specific consumption of power, was unstable during the whole post-reform water, steam (by 12–18%) and metal con- period (fig. 1). sumption (30–40%).

Figure 1. Gross production of fruits and berries in the Russian Federation in all categories of enterprises, thousand tons [6]

3500.0 3368.9 3358.0

2996.8 3193.3 3066.8 2968.8 2926.7 3000.0 2934.8 2857.9 2845.9 2818.4 2725.6 2746.8 2785.7 2500.0 2521.3 2611.1 2668.5 2473.2 2404.7 2366.1 2000.0 2174.3 2129.7

1500.0

1000.0

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 199 Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

The technical level of machines for But even if we take import into account, washing containers, for preparation of raw the actual consumption of fruits and berries and auxiliary materials for canning is cha- per capita (in terms of fresh fruits and berries, racterized as extremely low. The situation without those processed to make wine) in the is especially grave in the fruit-and-berry Russian Federation is only 40–50% from canning industry: most of the companies the rational standard recommended by the have outdated equipment for the packaging Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. of products [2]. The main reasons for the insufficient The above problems have led to the fact provision of consumers with domestic fruit- that currently the production does not fully and-berry products are seen in the following. satisfy the demand of the population for The first reason is an extremely low state fruit and berry products, since it provides support of agriculture and its fruit and berry only 18–20 kg of fruit and berries a year per cultivation. The lack of investment in the person, or 25–30% of the minimum amount industry, in the creation and development of required. The shortage of production is agricultural infrastructure, including high- covered by its import (fig. 2). quality storehouses leads to the fact that The basis of import supplies of fruits is Russia imports even apples. citrus fruits, apples, pears, apricots, pea- The second reason lies in the immaturity ches, cherries, sweet cherries, and bananas of the market of Russian producers. The (fig. 3). system of distribution of domestic products

Figure 2. Resources and the use of fruits and berries in the Russian Federation, thousand tons [6]

9000 8242 7900 8000 7630 7212 6795 6780 7000 6501 6024 5806 5698 6000 5502

5000 4659 4613

4000 2969 3067 2640 2723 2818 3000 2669 2474 2162 2000

1000

0 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Production Import Private consumption

200 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov

Figure 3. Commodity structure of fruit and berries import in Russia in 2012,% [8]

Dried; 1 Processed with heat; 1

Other nuts; 5 Other fruits; 7

Apricots, cherry, sweet Coconuts; 1 cherry and peaches; 16

Melons, watermelons; 0

Apples, pears; 21 Bananas; 16

Dates, figs, pineapples, avocados; 2

Vine; 7 Citrus fruits; 23

has not been created so far, while the channels products. A good resource base for this can be for distribution of foreign fruits and berries found in significant reserves of wild berries: are working effectively. As a result, substantial cranberry, cowberry, bilberry, blueberry, reserves for the development of domestic fruit which are very important in the food balance and berry sector remain unused. of the country. The problem of providing the population In recent years three leading centers for with fruit-and-berry products is particularly the harvesting and processing of wild crops acute for the people, who live in the Northern have developed (tab. 1). territories of Russia, including the regions Involvement of wild berries, which are the of the Non-Chernozem zone. Their traditional local natural resources, in the climatic conditions are not suitable for economic turnover should be considered as cultivating fruit and berry crops dynamically; one of the sources of growth for the economy in this regard, a significant share of fruits and both in the region and European North berries is imported from abroad and from the of Russia, where the biological reserve of southern regions of the country. cranberry is 160 thousand tons per year, At the same time, even the Non- blueberry – 372 thousand tons, blueberry – Chernozem zone has a significant potential 37 thousand tons, cranberry – 214 thousand for providing the people with fruit and berry tons.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 201 Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

Table 1. Russia’s leading regions in the harvesting and processing of wild berries

Region Specifics

Northwestern The impetus for the development of gathering in the Republic of Karelia, in the Pskov, Arkhangelsk and other oblasts can be found in direct investment from interested Swedish, Finnish and Norwegian companies. The reasons for the interest on the part of foreigners are clear: this Russian region is very close to the borders of the countries, where the consumption of wild plants (primarily berries) is at a very high level. In fact, the companies engaged in berry processing are now working with the relatively cheap Russian market of raw materials. Today in Karelia there are already up to 40 companies involved in the gathering and delivery of wild crops to Northern Europe. They all have full funding from Western partners. But the processing of wild raw materials in the region is not being developed: the vast majority of participants in this market gather berries and deliver them for export “as they are”. There emerged a fairly developed system of procurement centers; and the local population is actively involved in the procurement process as well.

Central Procurers from the Ivanovo, Vladimir and other oblasts focus on the Moscow market. Several large companies such as Ecoproduct, Bogorodskaya Trapeza, Wimm-Bill-Dann engaged in the canning of mushrooms, berries and juices have formed their own procurement base. According to the available data, the -based company Cantarella that specializes in the production of frozen berries and mushrooms remains the leader in the region.

Siberian So far the dominant position belongs to the : local procurement companies are successfully working in the Altai and Krasnoyarsk Krai. In addition, the region has developed a range of companies that position themselves not only as producers but also as the raw material processing enterprises: the remoteness from the boundaries naturally stimulates the development of deeper processing in order to minimize costs of the products’ delivery to foreign markets. This factor urges the Siberian companies to work more seriously in the domestic market.

Table 2. Forecast revenues of the Vologda Oblast budget system from harvesting berries by forestries [3] Total for Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 – 2017 Planned volume of procurement of berries in 499.2 504.3 509.2 514.3 2027.0 forestry sections, tons

Average pay for harvesting berries, rub. 4.84 4.84 4.84 4.84 –

Inflow of revenues to the budget from the harvesting and collection of non-timber 300 304 307 310 1221 resources, thousand rub.

Inflow of revenues to the budget, from harvesting of forest food resources and 3651 3691 3725.1 3765.3 14832.4 medicinal plants, thousand rub.

Total budget revenues from harvesting and collection of non-timber resources, 3951 3995 4032.1 4075.3 16053.4 forest food resources and medicinal plants, thousand rub.

It should be emphasized that the Consumer cooperatives and forest development of these resources requires an industry enterprises remained the main efficient communications system that makes gatherers of wild berries for a long time [4]. it possible to purchase fresh berries in all the However, their plans for gathering berries territories of the region. are very small.

202 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov

One of the main reasons why forestry lost berry cultivation and the enhancement of its position in the market of wild forest production efficiency can be facilitated foodstuffs can be found in the collapse of the through the application of new effective former distribution system. forms of cooperation by combining the It should be noted that, according to production and processing of fruit-and-berry forecasts, the implementation of estimated raw materials, logistics and other services on procurement of berry resources by forestry the basis of the development of integration sections will allow the Vologda Oblast budget processes. system to earn additional revenue. On average A motive stimulating the integration it will be about 4000 thousand rubles per year processes is the effect received through the (tab. 2). Total inflow into the budget for the increase of the scale of production, the period from 2014 to 2017 will reach nearly connection of separate stages of a single 16 million rubles. technological process and the opportunity However, one should bear in mind that we to have a complete cycle of production, are talking only about the revenues of the processing and distribution of diverse region’s budget system that come from and competitive products, as well as the harvesting activities of forestry sections, i.e. achievement of resources’ savings in the joint from organized collectors. At the same time, sphere of activity, coordinated actions and more significant amounts of wild berries are a more effective distribution of products on gathered by the local population and are the market. taken to the reception stations under district In our opinion, the promotion of departments of consumer cooperatives, and innovation activity and involvement of wild in most cases – to the buyers-up of berries; fruit and berry resources in the economic therefore, the regional budget loses quite a turnover in the Vologda Oblast requires substantial sum of money. the formation of the territorial-production These data show that at present the issue complex as a special integrated structure associated with the development of market based on the regional non-profit partner- infrastructure that ensures the sales of fruit- ship – an association of individuals and and-berry products, is rather acute in the legal entities for the purpose of mutual coo- region. The years of market transformation peration while preserving their autonomy resulted in actual destruction of the system and independence. of berry products distribution. This caused a This integrated structure can combine decrease in the volume of sales to the state, different economic entities, including in- the emergence of unregulated food markets, vestors, intermediaries, leasing organiza- the formation of new, mainly market, tions, customers, information and advisory distribution channels and the increase in the organizations, government authorities, share of such sales. investment-innovation institutions, finan- Studies show that in modern economic cial and credit institutions, insurance and conditions the innovativeness of fruit-and- research organizations, etc.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 203 Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

The creation of a territorial-production in 2008–2012 the sales of frozen fruits and complex is a priority in the development of berries increased by 37%. 76 thousand tons the region (the point of economic growth), of frozen fruits and berries were sold in 2012. contributing to the concentration of the According to the forecast, the sales of these necessary resources in those areas that bring products will have reached 87.5 tons by 2015. maximum return and increase the efficiency We add that during this period the retail and competitiveness of the products of price of frozen fruits and berries increased by agriculture and processing enterprises [1]. more than 50% (196.38 rubles per kg in 2012 In our opinion, an important principle of against 128.96 rubles in 2008), and it will the formation of the territorial-production have risen up to 268.87 rubles per kg by 2015 complex consists in the competitiveness of (fig. 4). the products and the demand on foreign and Fruit and berry products are in great domestic markets. At present, the analyzed demand abroad. For the period between 2007 market is in a stage of gradual growth and has and the first half of 2012 the Russian a significant potential. enterprises exported 35 847.4 tons of frozen There has been a steady demand for berry fruits and berries, which is equal to 132252 products on the Russian market. For instance, thousand dollars (fig. 5).

Figure 4. Sales of frozen fruits and berries and their retail price

300 268.87

250 239.51 215.49 196.38 200 181.38 169.08 144.16 150 128.96

100 78.46 82.73 87.54 72.06 73.69 76.1 55.62 49.19 50

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (forecast) (forecast)

Volume of sales of fruits and berries (frozen), thousand tons Retail price of froz en fruits and berries, rubles/kg

204 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov

Figure 5. Volume of export of frozen fruits and berries and their retail price

9000 50000 7913.6 8000 7288.8 45000 40000 7000 43372.4 5868 6799.6 35000 6000 5139.6 30000 5000 22623.6 25000 20876.6 4000 2837.8 16828.7 17033.7 20000 3000 15000 11517 2000 10000

1000 5000

0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 First half of 2012

Frozen fruits and berries, tons Price of frozen fruits and berries, thousand U.S. Dollars

The presence of the prime company LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda has increased its that produces ready-made (non-primary) turnover from 2.2 to 8 billion rubles (fig. 6). products is essential for the formation of the Currently, LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda is territorial-production complex. In our the leader in the Russian market of berry opinion, LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda (Vologda products. The company’s share in the market berry) that is engaged in the processing of frozen berries, berry puree, and berries in of berries, can be considered the main modified-atmosphere packaging varies from enterprise of the fruit-and-berry territorial- 85 to 100% (tab. 3). production complex in the Vologda Oblast; In general, the volume of production and the company has facilities in Ust-Kubinsky sales of fruit-and-berry products of LLC and Velikoustyugsky districts of the oblast. Vologodskaya Yagoda is growing continuously. The current turnover of LLC Vologodskaya The revenues from sales increase every year; Yagoda has reached 8 billion rubles; the the only exception was 2010, when the sales company has a network of procurement declined due to adverse weather conditions centers – stationary points, to which anyone caused by the unusually hot summer and, as can bring berries. It has its own bank in order a consequence, a sharp decline in yield and to effect prompt payments to the people berrying. for the berries delivered, its own logistics – The finished products of the company go warehouses and vehicles. For 2006–2012 to distributor networks such as “Auchan”,

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 205 Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

Figure 6. Turnover of LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda, billion rubles

9.0 8.0

8.0 7.0 7.0 6.1 5.7 6.0

5.0 4.2

4.0 3.1 3.0 2.2

2.0

1.0

0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Table 3. Some performance indicators of LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda

Current production Share of LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda in the Russian market, % Goods output, tons/year wild berries cultivated berries Frozen berry 35000 85 10 Berry puree 4000 85 10 Concentrated berry puree 4000 - - Berries in modified-atmosphere packaging 0.5 100 Juice concentrate of cultivated fruit and berries 0.5 1 Bilberry (pharmacy) 4000 5

“Metro”, “Dixie”, “Lenta”, “Globus due to the steady growth of the Russian Gourmet”, etc.; semi-finished products market of juices and baby food (in 2009 and berry concentrates are sold to the juice, consumption growth amounted to 18.5%), milk, confectionery and pharmaceutical they are planning to increase purchases of raw companies. The major consumers of the fruit and berries for the production of juice products of LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda are and juice products. OJSC Lebedyansky, OJSC Wimm-Bill-Dann Thus, LLC Vologodskaya Yagoda has a Beverages, LLC Agrana Fruit – Danone, chance to become the parent company of a LLC SKFruit and others. These companies future fruit-and-berry territorial-production are the largest buyers of finished products complex. Its participants may include spe- such as fresh and frozen berries, concentrated cialized horticultural and small processing juices and purees, and they intend to continue enterprises of the region, such as LLC their cooperation with the enterprise; besides, Vologda Plant of Forest Foods, and Integrated

206 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov

Agricultural Production Company Plemzavod Eastern corridor – “ –Nyuksenitsa – Maysky, the largest producer of cultivated ”. Development corridors are fruits and berries. located along major highways that provide Small enterprises act as participants of access to the regional (local) market for the network structures. At present, those all the members of business entities and enterprises located in small towns and rural maximum coverage of all the districts of the areas and engaged in the processing of oblast. In addition, such a scheme of location agricultural products from locally available of companies will give an impetus to the fruits, berries and herbs are becoming development of consumer cooperation as especially important. These facilities play a one of the key elements of the infrastructure key role in the solution of social issues such of berry products market. Therefore, it is as the increase in employment, creation of necessary to conduct systematic work in new jobs, and improvement of the quality the corridors of development aimed to form of life. Besides, they solve the problem of engineering, transport, information, social stable supply of products at prices that are and administrative infrastructures. affordable for different social groups. The Taking into account the specifics of the importance of this role of small businesses is economy of the territories, the structure of evidenced by the fact that the production of the regional fruit-and-berry territorial- canned mushrooms, vegetables and fruit by production complex should contain private these enterprises reaches 45–50% of the total subsidiary plots, which are the main producers production [7]. of cultivated berries and the main collectors The presence of substantial reserves of of wild berries. Despite the fact that they wild berries in almost all the districts of the cannot form the basis of the progress in the Vologda Oblast makes it possible to create a industry due to small-scale production and network of small enterprises for processing limited resources for modernization, they fresh berries, in particular, in the towns are distinguished by the maximum efficient , Krasavino and rural settlement use of available resources and a high level of Maysky. personal interest in the results of the work. The on-site processing of berries will The support of private subsidiary plots is reduce the cost of production by reducing social, rather than economic, in nature, and transport costs. The feasibility of establishing it implies the gradual evolution of the more small enterprises for processing berries is successful of them into small and medium point out in the Strategy for socio-economic enterprises. development of the Vologda Oblast for the Transport-and-distribution centers can period up to 2020. These enterprises should be promote the integration of the subjects of the created in the region’s development corridors fruit market most efficiently. These centers (fig. 7): the Western corridor – “Kirillov – make it possible to carry out the analysis, – Lipin Bor – Vytegra”; the accumulation and redistribution of the flows Northern corridor – “Vokhtoga – Gryazo- of goods and materials within the region, vets – Sokol – – ”; the between separate business entities within the

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 207 Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

Figure 7. Possible locations of small enterprises for processing berries within the existing development corridors of the Vologda Oblast

territorial-production complex. The creation in the context of the necessity to create an of a network of transport-and-distribution innovation system and infrastructure for the centers through the implementation of production of competitive fruit-and-berry public-private partnership will provide products. a synergistic effect due to cost savings of The material and technological base and business structures with the joint use of production technologies can be upgraded infrastructure and special equipment, and through the participation of engineering firms will lead to the growth and transformation of and research institutes in this complex. potential network integration structures into Public authorities of different levels, strong and stable ones [5]. innovation infrastructure, and the system of The Vologda State Dairy Farming higher professional education are external Academy named after N.V. Vereshchagin, partners of the fruit-and-berry territorial- the Vologda State University and other production complex. Regional and municipal educational institutions can supply the authorities, in particular, should establish enterprise of the territorial-production a favorable external environment for its complex with skilled employees. It can be creation. At the regional level it is necessary to said that these universities will contribute make appropriate adjustments to the Vologda to scientific and technological support of Oblast socio-economic development strategy, the production and processing of fruit-and- to determine the place of the fruit-and-berry berry products in the proposed complex. territorial-industrial complex as a landmark This interaction is particularly important of priority development.

208 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov Related industries and containers; - production of packaging - energy; - pharmaceutical industry; - food industry Krasavino enterprise Berry-producing and processing

Ustye Maysky Yagoda” Core of the cluster LLC “Vologodskaya Berry-producing enterprise Berry-producing enterprise Berry-producing Channels for distribution of products Special providers of infrastructure - enterprises transport infrastructure - enterprises business infrastructure - information-and-communication networks - public catering organizations -Moskovsky House Trading Magnit, Lenta, enterprises: trade Vytegra Berry-producing enterprise Berry-producing Figure 8. Composition of the Vologda Oblast fruit-and-berry territorial-production complex Figure 8. Composition of the Vologda of production Suppliers of factors institutions etc. - banks and other financial - procurement organizations - mechanical engineering firms - universities: VSDFA,VSU,

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 209 Ways to enhance the economic turnover of fruit and berry production in the region

At the same time it is necessary to develop These conditions include: an adequate system of state regulation and – coordination of current and future support of the industry. The organizing role directions in the development of regional and of public authorities is very important at the national economy; initial stage of formation of the fruit-and- – maintenance of the budget and berry territorial-production complex. commodity-money balance; In general terms, the structure of the fruit- – development of legislation to provide and-berry territorial-production complex in a legal framework and protection of interests the Vologda Oblast can be represented as of all the participants in the local market of follows (fig. 8). fruit and berries; The development of the fruit-and-berry – creation of necessary conditions and control in order to ensure free and fair territorial-production complex by 2020, competition in the market; according to our calculations, will be – provision of rational and legitimate characterized by the following indicators distribution of goods. . In addition, by 2020, the processing (tab. 4) Due to the fact that the methods of state enterprises that will join the complex will regulation in the formation of the fruit-and- contribute about 430–450 million rubles to berry market infrastructure are multi-di- the budget. mensional in nature, their implementation The increase in the economic turnover of should be effected by competent legislative, wild berries in the Northern territories will be executive, supervisory and other public au- promoted by assistance from the authorities thorities. in the formation of the infrastructure of the In our opinion, this will contribute to the local fruit-and-berry market by creating formation and sustainable development of the conditions to ensure the proper functioning local fruit-and-berry market, turning it into a of the market. source of growth in the regional economy.

Table 4. Main indicators of the development of the Vologda Oblast fruit-and-berry territorial-production complex (calculations made by the author) Type of market Share in the market Global Russian Regional (NWFD) Fact 2012 Plan 2020 Fact 2012 Plan 2020 Fact 2012 Plan 2020 Fast-frozen berries, vegetables and 1,5 2,2 9 14 73 91 mushrooms, % Concentrated berry juices and puree, % 3 5 53 71 62 89 Concentrated vegetable juices and puree, % 0 1 0 11 0 24 Fact 2012 Plan 2020 Production output of frozen berries, tons 39 000 94 200 Number of employees at the berry processing enterprises, including: – regular 210 580 – temporary 1700 4000

210 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY V.E. Rokhchin, V.S. Uskov

Cited works 1. Glotko A.V. Formation and Development of Cluster in the Regional Agroindustrial Complex. Available at: http://oldvak.ed.gov.ru/common/img/uploaded/files/vak/2010/announcements/economich/12-04/ GlotkoAV.doc 2. Kulikov I.M., Medvedev S.M., Urusov V.F. Optimization of the Placement of Companies of Fruit and Berry Complex of AIC in the of the Russian Federation for the Period of 2009–2012. Horticulture and Viticulture, 2009, no.3, pp. 25-32. 3. The Forest Plan of the Vologda Oblast. Available at: http://www.forestvologda.ru/page/ wood_plan 4. Miloserdov V.V., Miloserdov K.V. Stages of Development of Russian Cooperation: the Ups and Downs. Economics of Agriculture and Processing Enterprises, 2012, no.4, pp. 10-16. 5. Morozov N.M., Konakov M.A. Small Agroindustrial Clusters. Economics of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises, 2009, no.2, pp. 30-33. 6. Agriculture, Hunting and Hunting Sector, Forestry in Russia: Statistical Digest. Rosstat. Moscow, 2011. 446 p. 7. Seregin S.N., Kashirina O.N., Kolonchin K.V. Principles and Specifics of Spatial Location of the Production Base of the Food Industry. Economics of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises, 2012, no.5, pp. 12-19. 8. Customs Statistics of Russia’s Foreign Trade. Available at: http://www.ved-stat.ru/pub/81-fruitimport 9. Tsibul’nikova M.R. Development of the Methodology for Accounting and Valuation of Natural Resources at the Regional Level (Case Study of the Tomsk Oblast). Available at: http://www.lib.tsu.ru/mminfo/000063105/341/ image/341-243.pdf References 1. Glotko A.V. Formirovanie i razvitiya klastera sadovodstva v regional’nom APK [Formation and Development of Horticulture Cluster in the Regional Agroindustrial Complex]. Available at: http://oldvak.ed.gov.ru/common/ img/uploaded/files/vak/2010/announcements/economich/12-04/GlotkoAV.doc 2. Kulikov I.M., Medvedev S.M., Urusov V.F. Optimizatsiya razmeshcheniya predpriyatii plodovo-yagodnogo podkompleksa APK v Tsentral’nom federal’nom okruge RF na period 2009–2012 gg. [Optimization of the Placement of Companies of Fruit and Berry Complex of AIC in the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation for the Period of 2009–2012]. Sadovodstvo i vinogradarstvo [Horticulture and Viticulture], 2009, no.3, pp. 25-32. 3. Lesnoi plan Vologodskoi oblasti [The Forest Plan of the Vologda Oblast]. Available at: http://www.forestvologda. ru/page/ wood_plan 4. Miloserdov V.V., Miloserdov K.V. Etapy razvitiya Rossiiskoi kooperatsii: vzlety i padeniya [Stages of Development of Russian Cooperation: the Ups and Downs]. Ekonomika sel’skogo khozyaistva i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatii [Economics of Agriculture and Processing Enterprises], 2012, no.4, pp. 10-16. 5. Morozov N.M., Konakov M.A. Agropromyshlennye klastery maloi formy [Small Agroindustrial Clusters]. Ekonomika sel’skokhozyaistvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatii [Economics of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises], 2009, no.2, pp. 30-33. 6. Sel’skoe khozyaistvo, okhota i okhotnich’e khozyaistvo, lesovodstvo v Rossii. 2011: stat. sb. [Agriculture, Hunting and Hunting Sector, Forestry in Russia: Statistical Digest]. Rosstat. Moscow, 2011. 446 p. 7. Seregin S.N., Kashirina O.N., Kolonchin K.V. Printsipy i osobennosti territorial’nogo razmeshcheniya proizvodstvennoi bazy pishchevoi promyshlennosti Rossii [Principles and Specifics of Spatial Location of the Production Base of the Food Industry]. Ekonomika sel’skokhozyaistvennykh i pererabatyvayushchikh predpriyatii [Economics of Agricultural and Processing Enterprises], 2012, no.5, pp. 12-19. 8. Tamozhennaya statistika vneshnei torgovli Rossii [Customs Statistics of Russia’s Foreign Trade]. Available at: http://www.ved-stat.ru/pub/81-fruitimport 9. Tsibul’nikova M.R. Razvitie metodologii ucheta i otsenki prirodnykh resursov na regional’nom urovne (na primere Tomskoi oblasti) [Development of the Methodology for Accounting and Valuation of Natural Resources at the Regional Level (Case Study of the Tomsk Oblast)]. Available at: http://www.lib.tsu.ru/mminfo/000063105/341/ image/341-243.pdf

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 211 BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY

UDC 332.14.001.895, LBC 65.9.-551 © Sovetov P.M., Volkova S.A., Sovetova N.P. Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

Pavel Mikhailovich SOVETOV Doctor of Economics, Professor at the Management and Marketing Department, Federal State-Financed Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “Vologda State Dairy Farming Academy named after N.V. Vereshchagin” (2, Schmidt Street, settlement of Molochnoye, Vologda, 160555, Russia, [email protected], [email protected])

Svetlana Anatol’evna VOLKOVA Graduate Student at the Management and Marketing Department, Federal State- Financed Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “Vologda State Dairy Farming Academy named after N.V. Vereshchagin” (2, Schmidt Street, settlement of Molochnoye, Vologda, 160555, Russia, [email protected])

Nadezhda Pavlovna SOVETOVA Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Management Department, Federal State-Financed Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education “Vologda State University” (15, Lenin Street, Vologda, 160035, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article considers the results of the questionnaire survey carried out in 2011–2013 by the Department of Production Management at the Vologda State Dairy Farming Academy named after N.V. Vereshchagin. The survey was supported by the Vologda Oblast Department of Agriculture, Food Stocks and Trade in the framework of ongoing research into the issues of transition of agricultural economy

212 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY P.M. Sovetov, S.A. Volkova, N.P. Sovetova

to innovation development. The authors present and systematize the opinions of the heads of the region’s agricultural enterprises concerning the challenges and opportunities of innovation-investment activity of agricultural organizations. Key words: innovation, demand for innovations, innovation activity.

Russia’s accession to the World Trade it increases when production shifts to new Organization (WTO) attaches greater impor- goods manufactured using upgraded pro- tance to the enhancement of competitiveness duction facilities, investment in innovation of modern agriculture that operates under becomes the most important direction for conditions of international division of labor the use of investments. And today it seems and emergence of new markets. Agricultural that the Russian Federation does not lack producers realize that they need to improve suggestions to develop its economy based the competitiveness of their products and on innovation. The country’s innovation production conditions in order to ensure the development model is set out in the Concept production of high-quality and safe products for long-term socio-economic development that meet and even anticipate the demands of of the Russian Federation [4]; it should consumers. The tactics to achieve economic result in the creation of innovation economy. growth commonly used in the 2000s was State authorities are talking more and based on the existing range of products and more about financial support to innovation launch of idle capacities, fixed assets and activity. technology; this tactics cannot ensure the However, official statistics do not show required competitiveness of enterprises at the growth of demand for innovation and present and in the future. the increase in the volumes of innovation Competitiveness, of course, depends on products, including those from manufactu- the level of resource usage efficiency and ring industries that lay the foundation of intensification of production, but if Russia economic competitiveness. There is no wants to produce competitive products being intensive technological re-equipment of the WTO member, it should enhance their domestic industry, and, moreover, unlike quality, launch new, marketable production all other industrialized countries, Russia in accordance with the requirements of the is not reducing the share of the low-tech globalizing market. This requires updating of sector in the structure of value added. Only basic production assets, their reconstruction about 10% of enterprises in the country, and creation of new production facilities, like a decade ago, implement technological the adoption of progressive technology. All innovation, whereas in Germany the figure is this requires investment, which are the main 60% [2]. Hence, some scientists, who study factor promoting economic growth, its main the model of innovation economic develop- driving force. ment, postulate that private owners of enter- In the conditions, when the quality of prises do not want to or cannot finance the economic growth is the most important and innovation process [2].

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 213 Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

This opinion is based on an extensive innovation development and opportunities to foundation of empirical evidence, but sta- establish high-tech production in short term. tistics show that some industries and enter- The research and regular contacts with leaders prises that are in the same functioning con- and specialists of agro-industrial complex ditions, are, nevertheless, able to find the (AIC) show that they support the imitation funds for adoption and implementation of approach to innovation, since it complies innovation development strategy. Here we to the objectives of enhancing the basic do not focus our attention on the characteris- conditions of reproduction and improvement tics of produced innovation products that of the overall climate for agribusiness. are new for the internal or external market Agricultural economics and AIC mana- or that do not have analogues on the world gement practice is well acquainted with market. It is clear that it is not always possible strengths and weaknesses of the current to launch the production of innovative pro- innovation system; they can be viewed from ducts with low costs. different angles, but its potential should However, there are a number of enterprises be perceived, first of all, as an actual foun- that imitate innovation, i.e. they do not spend dation of available competitive advantages based on scientific knowledge; one must money on research, but adopt R&D of others use these advantages most efficiently to and develop their own production on the achieve sustainability and growth of expanded basis of that of industrialized countries. reproduction in agriculture. Enterprises that imitate innovation specialize Actually, this was one of the pillars of a mostly in food and raw materials. Agricultural concept of research that we carried out in production has been suffering from chronic 2011–2013 to study the factors and condi- investment hunger for the third decade in tions promoting innovation development of a row. It can be assumed that the imitation agricultural economics in the region in the model of promoting innovation in this sec- case of the Vologda Oblast. tor will spur the interest of agribusiness in One of the stages of the research was to innovations and in their development under collect and generalize the opinions of the the rules of the World Trade Organization that heads of agricultural enterprises in the region are in effect on the territory of the Russian concerning the challenges, opportunities and Federation. prospects of innovation development. This was And now, as competition is getting tougher carried out through questionnaire surveys of and Russia’s economy is open to multinational the leaders of agricultural organizations; they corporations and WTO rules, agricultural were asked a specific set of questions to identify producers will have to improve production factors promoting or hindering innovation processes and quality of their goods that and investment activity of crops and livestock remain competitive, and to increase pro- producers. The questionnaires were distributed ductivity. We think that this approach is very to the heads of agricultural enterprises important under the current conditions of specializing in the production of dairy cattle production and circulation, because not all and located virtually in all the administrative- agricultural companies have the potential for territorial districts of the region.

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The list of enterprises was approved by link – agriculture – in the views of heads of the leadership and economic service of the agricultural organizations concerning the Vologda Oblast Department of Agriculture, challenges and opportunities of implemen- Food Stocks and Trade. The total number ting innovation development in agricultural of farms that had submitted filled-in ques- economics. tionnaires, was 52. This covers over 24% of Generalization and structuring of the the general totality of dairy farms, located questionnaire survey data clearly shows that on the territory of the region; this allows us heads of agricultural organizations do not to speak about high representativeness and deny the importance and significance credibility of the survey. of working out a strategy for innovation When we set the goal, we took into ac- development of agro-economics; and count the vulnerability of domestic agricul- they evaluate the market of innovations in tural economy [1] and the existing groups of agriculture as growing and developing, where current and long-term problems (economic, scientific and technological innovations are demographic, social), as well as the general very expensive and their supply on the part of conditions and specifics of functioning national science could be more extensive, in of agriculture. The first year of Russia’s their opinion. At that, the main obstacle to membership in the WTO, as it is quite innovation breakthrough in the development obvious, dictates that enterprises should of agricultural production, according to not only increase competitiveness of their the respondents, is, quite reasonably, the products, but also create the conditions for restriction of demand for innovations resulting its production, ensuring quality and safe from a man-made “agrarian tragedy” that has products that satisfy and even anticipate the struck agricultural economics (the expression demands of consumers. of L.I. Abalkin, 2009). Now, due to large-scale and prolonged Therefore it is not a coincidence that only pressure of food imports in the context of 13% of surveyed executives say that they are globalization and economic openness, the ready to start the transition of agricultural issue of competitiveness of domestic agri- production to the innovation stage of deve- cultural products on the internal market is lopment, 42% admit the possibility of such a most acute (you can say, critical). And this transition in the future, but 45% report they cannot be solved by boosting agricultural have no conditions for the implementation of production alone. this transition. Note in this connection that Negative demographic trends in rural only 5% of respondents are focused on the areas, which are manifested in the decline in intensification of agricultural production, as birth rate and growing death rate of rural it is indicated clearly in their responses. Most population, high unemployment and low of the executives (57.5%) assess the utilization incomes dictate the necessity to move of available production capacities at the level the whole rural economy to innovation of 70–80%, and 32% characterize the level development. Here, in the first phase of of utilization of production potential at no the study, we will consider only the key more than 40–60%.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 215 Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

Of course, the figures should not be herbicides, feed additives, etc.) (9%). Mas- interpreted as unwillingness of heads of tering of production of the products of genetic agricultural enterprises to solve problems engineering and new types of products is only of innovation development of agricultural expected in the foreseeable future. production. At present, most of the res- It should be emphasized that leaders of pondents are implementing innovation to a agricultural enterprises are objective and very greater or lesser degree (fig. 1). critical in assessments of their activity in the The highest level of demand for innovation field of innovation. For instance, only 22% projects, judging by the number of agricultural of the respondents evaluated the activities of organizations that declared it and that are their enterprises in introduction of innovation involved in implementing them, was found technology in animal husbandry by five points among those that are related to the purchase of (on the scale of ten). equipment of new generation (29%), improve- All respondents assess the level of im- ment of animal breeds (19%), somewhat less – plementation of innovation technology among those related to the development of in plant cultivation below five points, inclu- new production technology (17%), the use of ding 12 and 5% – by four to five points, improved varieties of plants, hybrids, crosses respectively. While 37.5% of the respondents (16%) and very few among those related to point out a 10% level of satisfaction of the the use of modified materials (fertilizers, demand for elite seeds, not more than 4%

Figure 1. Innovation projects participated by agricultural enterprises of the Vologda Oblast in 2006–2010, %

9% 1% Introduction of a new type of management structure 17% Development of new production technology 16% Purchase of equipment of new generation

Introduction of a new scheme of remuneration

Improvement of animal breeds

29% Use of improved varieties of plants, hybrids, crosses 19%

Use of modified materials (fertilizers, herbicides, feed additives, etc.) 9%

216 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY P.M. Sovetov, S.A. Volkova, N.P. Sovetova

of agricultural producers say the demand investments in human capital and infra- is satisfied by 80–90%, and none of them structure development are a necessary and is supplied by 100%. Half of agricultural major source of economic growth. They producers has a 12% level of satisfaction of determine the possibility of increasing the demand for elite seeds. the efficient use of land, labor and other 11% of agricultural producers have solved production resources, and ultimately the the problem of purchasing pedigree livestock; competitiveness of agricultural products. it is solved by 90% in 5.6% of agricultural In 2005–2010 the volume of capital enterprises. 22% of agricultural producers investments in the development of produc- have an opportunity to satisfy only half of tion capacities, according to 37.5% of the their demand for pedigree livestock, and respondents, was sufficient only for simple 44% of respondents – only in the range of reproduction (fig. 2); 25% of respondents 10–15%. consider it insufficient for simple reproduction. Leaders of agricultural enterprises that Only 20% of respondents admitted that the participated in the survey are distinguished level of capital investments was sufficient for by pragmatism concerning the launch of extended production. innovative activity inextricably linked with the It is significant that when asked about formation of basic conditions for expanded economic performance of their enterprises reproduction. for 2011–2013, all the respondents indicate First of all, they include the upgrading an increasing degree of unfulfilled requests of facilities and infrastructure of agricultu- for capital investments, lack of capital ral enterprises, so that they had the ability investment to provide simple and expanded to manufacture competitive products. Se- reproduction. condly, they include measures aimed at Official statistics points out continuous organizing the production of new (unique) and widespread decline in construction of products. production facilities in agriculture; it is In this context it is logical that heads of confirmed by the corresponding estimates agricultural enterprises are concerned with given by the heads of agricultural enterprises, the condition and replacement of fixed who participated in the survey. Only 15% of assets. For example, for five years (2006– respondents said they had implemented the 2010) only 7.1% of respondents have fully plans of construction of production facilities upgraded their fixed assets, 33% were able in the livestock industry in the period under to compensate for their retirement only by consideration. The list and the importance of half, and 42% replaced only one-third of factors that hamper investments in agriculture their retired assets. (in the interpretation of survey participants) Leaders of agricultural organizations are are shown in figure 3. constantly arguing that capital investments The answers given by the surveyed heads allocated for the acquisition of long-term of agricultural enterprises show interrelation resource-saving equipment and technology, between the tasks of growth of innovation

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 217 Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

Figure 2. Assessment of the level of capital investments in the development of production capacities (as a percentage of the number of responses given by heads of the Vologda Oblast agricultural organizations, who participated in the survey)

47.5 50 37.5 40

30 25 22.5 20 20 15 15 15

10 2.5 0 0 2005-2010 2011-2013

Optimal Sufficient for extended reproduction Sufficient for simple reproduction Insufficient for simple reproduction Totally insufficient, causing irreversible effect

Figure 3. Factors hindering investments in agriculture (as a percentage of the number of responses given by the heads of the Vologda Oblast agricultural organizations, who participated in the survey)

30 28

25 23

20 17 16 14 15

10

5 1 1 0

High prices for equipment, construction materials, etc. High interest on bank credit Small amount of profit obtained Necessity to pay off debts Untimely payout of subsidies on previously granted loans Shortage of qualified personnel Lack of highly-qualified contractors

218 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY P.M. Sovetov, S.A. Volkova, N.P. Sovetova

activity and capital investment in agricul- bilities of innovation development. The ture, where investment is a condition and volume of investments, insufficient for simple prerequisite for transition to innovation reproduction, serves as a reason for a response type of development of agricultural produc- such as “rather no than yes” concerning the tion. Also there is a correlation between the estimates of opportunities for innovation estimates of the possibilities of transition development, whereas the parameters of to innovation model of development and investment that are considered sufficient for the level of investment support provided to simple reproduction, form the answer “rather agro-economics. yes than no” (fig. 4). Thus, 15% of the surveyed heads of According to respondents (fig. 5), the agricultural enterprises consider the volume main driving force in the transition to inno- of investment for expanded reproduction vation model of development of agricultural to be sufficient, and almost as many exe- production is the need to enhance com- cutives (13.6%) say that their agricultu- petitiveness (30% of the total number of ral enterprises have opportunities for the respondents). 23% of the answers of mana- transition to innovation model of develop- gers point out increased competition in the ment. market and express their concern about the Accordingly, lack of capital investment fact of Russia’s accession to the World Trade treated as “totally insufficient”, leads to Organization (17%), instability of external negative judgments concerning the possi- environment factors (15%).

Figure 4. Evaluation of existing opportunities for transition to the innovation model of development of agricultural production in the Vologda Oblast (according to the results of the questionnaire survey of enterprises’ heads), %

13%

32% 13% No Yes Rather yes than no Rather no than yes

42%

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 219 Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

Figure 5. Factors promoting the transition to the innovation model of development of agricultural production in the Vologda Oblast (according to the questionnaire survey of managers), in %

3% Necessity to enhance

15% competitiveness 30% Russia’s prospects of joining the WTO Existing market conditions

Increase of competitiveness on the market

23% Instability of external environment

Other: conservation 17% of production, depreciation of machinery and equipment 12%

Leaders of agricultural organizations development (30%) is on the second place understand that transition to innovation (fig. 6) according to the degree of importance model of development will be very difficult and significance. The tasks such as forming under the circumstances of socio-economic the system of information and advisory instability. It will be necessary to activate all support of innovations, increase of financing the available resources and attract additional of agrarian science, improvement of forms material, labor and intellectual resources; and mechanisms of interaction between besides one will need a clear view of numerous science and production are estimated as risks and expected results, organization of being somewhat less important, but equally target management of innovation, preparation important with relation to one another. and adaptation of personnel to innovation. It So far only 1% of respondents stressed the is clear that it can be achieved only with large- importance of establishment of venture funds scale support and systematic participation of with participation of the state. the state. An appeal of agricultural enterprises’ Therefore it is not a coincidence that leaders to the state for support should not be heads of agricultural enterprises attach the understood as a request for unlimited greatest importance (41%) to the enhance- financing of expenditures on innovation at ment of state support of agriculture as a the expense of the state budget. We are talking main condition for boosting innovation. about state protectionism of innovation The necessity of elaboration and realization development of agricultural production, of special target programs for innovation similar to the one that emerged during the

220 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY P.M. Sovetov, S.A. Volkova, N.P. Sovetova

Figure 6. Importance of tasks and conditions of transition to innovation model of development of agricultural production (according to the results of the questionnaire survey of managers), in %

10% Develop and implement special target programs

9% 30% Enhance the provision of state support to agriculture

1% Increase the funding of agrarian science

9% Establish venture funds with government participation

Improve the forms and mechanisms of cooperation between science and production

Establish a system of information and advisory support - of agricultural producers in order to apply the achievements of scientific and technological progress 41%

initial period of the “new economic policy” of natural monopolies, resellers or processors the USSR and that was effectively applied in and to reduce tax burden on producers industrialized and other countries during the (fig. 7). post-war period under the auspices of state They emphasize the importance of rest- paternalism in relation to agriculture. Today ricting the import of agricultural machinery, all that remains for domestic agricultural raw materials and food, as well as the gua- producers is nostalgia for large-scale public rantees of state procurement of agricultural investment in agricultural production effected products manufactured with the use of in 1976–1991, and dreams about “neo- new technology. The respondents point NEP”. out certain very important activities of Agricultural producers would like to the state in implementing the following actually see and constantly feel the real state measures: development of innovation support of innovation development of agri- market infrastructure and leasing with cultural production. In their opinion, the the introduction of new equipment and most important direction of government highly productive breeds of animals, risk policy in promoting innovation in agriculture insurance in innovations, and tax incentives is to ensure protection from the pressure of in integration links between agricultural

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 221 Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

Figure 7. Choice by heads of agricultural organizations of the directions of the state policy in promoting innovation, in %

Introduction of insurance against risks 6.08

Guarantee of public procurement 10.14

Improvement of investment climate 8.78

Development of the infrastructure of innovations market 5.41

Tax incentives for integration links 2.7

Support in the formation of branch-wise unions 2.03

Debt restructuring 8.78

Import curtailment 10.14

Security from natural monopolies 16.22

Development of leasing in agriculture 8.11

Improvement of crop insurance 7.43

Reduction of tax burden 14.19 % 0 5 10 15 20

enterprises, processing and trade enterprises tend to deny their responsibilities for the (agricultural holdings), on terms of mutual implementation of innovations. Reasonably benefit, support in the formation of industrial believing that the success of the transition unions of agricultural producers. Therefore, of agricultural enterprises and agricultural the opinion of the heads of agricultural economics in general to the innovative organizations concerning state support of model of development will be determined innovation development of agricultural primarily by knowledge assets and the production seems to be very informative and level of professionalism, they critically differentiated. review the qualifications and willingness In this case, heads of agricultural of their employees to develop innovations; organizations are not trying to shift res- they forecast the innovation activity of ponsibility to the state and get away from their employees and begin to work on the solving problems of innovation development formation and development of innovation of agricultural production. They do not potential of human resources.

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The leaders of agricultural organizations The study of the opinions of heads of that participated in the survey have noted a agricultural enterprises allows us to clarify relatively low level of sensitivity of the existing issues related to innovation development at management personnel to innovation. In the enterprise level, i.e. at the level of the the opinion of leaders, 25% of managerial main component of economy, and see what staff have a positive opinion concerning the problem situation is, it also helps identify innovations and are willing to implement existing problems and assess the factors them into life, but 50% show low and average influencing innovative activity in agriculture. readiness to implement them. Only 6% of Summarizing the results of our ques- managers believe that specialists are able to tionnaire survey, we emphasize the follo- express the positive nature of the results of wing: innovation for the entire enterprise and its 1. Heads of agricultural organizations employees, and also have sufficient authority, evaluate a market of innovation in the motivation and interest in implementation agricultural sector as a growing, developing of innovation projects at their enterprise. one, where scientific and technological So far, only one in ten managers believes novelties are very expensive and their supply that the company’s specialists can sensibly by the national science could be, in their explain the necessity and feasibility of opinion, much wider. Besides, attention innovations to production staff. None of the should be also paid to innovation projects in survey participants set the highest score to the organization of production management, the management of their company for their marketing and social technologies of for- ability to assess the factors in feasibility and mation of innovation-active management. success of innovation projects. 2. The promotion of innovation in Consequently, it becomes obvious, unde- agricultural production is, according to niable and urgently necessary to raise the respondents, an objective necessity caused qualification of workers to the level required by the tasks to improve its effectiveness and for independent development of innovation ensure the country’s food security, achieve a technology, and also to train managerial staff high level of competitiveness of products in in the fundamentals of innovation manage- the new institutional economic conditions ment, and to train personnel in organiza- resulting from the openness of the economy tional behavior in the conditions of innova- and the Russian Federation’s membership in tion development of economy. the WTO. The main part of the interviewed heads of 3. The demand for innovations in agri- agricultural enterprises (72.5%) consider it culture, according to the heads of agricul- necessary at present to educate produc- tural enterprises, is limited due to current tion personnel in the implementation of vulnerability of domestic agricultural innovation projects, 17.5% do not deny this economy and existing groups of present- need. The rest (10%) do not consider this to day and long-term problems (economic, be important and urgent. demographic, social), as well as general

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 223 Conditions and factors promoting the movement of agricultural producers towards innovation-based development

conditions and specifics of functioning of investment in agriculture, where investment is agricultural production. This explains its a prerequisite and precondition for transition relatively low susceptibility to innovation to innovation development of agricultural and, therefore, low priority of innovation production. activity in adopted strategies for development 6. Heads of agricultural enterprises of agricultural enterprises. consider the process of transition of agri- 4. However, leaders of agricultural cultural economy to innovation model of organizations do not distance themselves development, given the current socio- from the decision of problems of innovation economic instability, very complex and development of agricultural production; demanding; it requires the efforts of all and at present the majority of respondents existing resources and attraction of additional implement innovation. However, 45% of material, human and intellectual resources; respondents point out that there is a lack in this respect it is also necessary to have a of conditions for full-scale transition of clear and comprehensive view of many risks, agricultural production to the innovation to forecast expected results, to organize stage of its development. targeted innovation management, to train 5. Innovation activity of agricultural and adapt the employees to innovations. producers, as the heads of agricultural This is followed by a reasonable statement organizations believe, should develop not by that it is possible to make the transition to “rushing into innovation”, like “rushing innovation model of development of agri- into the market” in 1992; rather it should be cultural production only with large-scale based on the formation of basic conditions for support and systematic participation of the expanded reproduction. Attention is focused state. The strategy for innovation development on the relationship between objectives of agriculture should be developed and put in of innovation activity growth and capital legal form.

Cited works 1. Ageeva S.D. Prospects of Innovation-Driven Russia. Two Positions, or a Look from Inside and Outside. All- Russian Economic Journal, 2011, no.11, pp. 11-14. 2. Alekseev A., Kuznetsova N. Innovation Potential of the Real Sector: Illusions Not Lost? Economist, 2013, no.12, pp. 12-26. 3. Kozlovskaya O.V., Akerman E.N. Analysis of Measures of State Support in the Sphere of Innovation Activity in Regions Members of the Association of Innovation Regions of Russia. All-Russian Economic Journal, 2013, no.11, pp. 65-85. 4. The Concept for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2020: Approved by the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 17, 2008 No. 1662-R. ConsultantPlus. 5. Kuznetsova T., Roud V. Competition, Innovation and Strategy: Empirical Evidence from Russian Enterprises. Economic Issues, 2013, no.12, pp. 86-108. 6. Sovetov P.M., Volkova S.A., Sovetova N.P. Factors and Conditions Promoting the Transition to Innovation Type of Development for Agro-Economics. Scientific Review, 2014, no.2, pp. 219-228.

224 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY P.M. Sovetov, S.A. Volkova, N.P. Sovetova

References 1. Ageeva S.D. Perspektivy innovatsionnoi Rossii. Dve pozitsii, ili vzglyad iznutri i izvne [Prospects of Innovation- Driven Russia. Two Positions, or a Look from Inside and Outside]. EKO [All-Russian Economic Journal], 2011, no.11, pp. 11-14. 2. Alekseev A., Kuznetsova N. Innovatsionnyi potentsial real’nogo sektora: neutrachennye illyuzii? [Innovation Potential of the Real Sector: Illusions Not Lost?]. Ekonomist [Economist], 2013, no.12, pp. 12-26. 3. Kozlovskaya O.V., Akerman E.N. Analiz mer gosudarstvennoi podderzhki v sfere innovatsionnoi deyatel’nosti v regionakh – chlenakh AIRR [Analysis of Measures of State Support in the Sphere of Innovation Activity in Regions Members of the Association of Innovation Regions of Russia]. EKO [All-Russian Economic Journal], 2013, no.11, pp. 65-85. 4. Kontseptsiya dolgosrochnogo sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2020 goda: utvurzhdena rasporyazheniem Pravitel’stva RF ot 17.11.2008 № 1662-r [The Concept for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2020: Approved by the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 17, 2008 No. 1662-R]. Konsul’tantPlyus [ConsultantPlus]. 5. Kuznetsova T., Roud V. Konkurentsiya, innovatsii i strategiya razvitiya rossiiskikh predpriyatii (rezul’taty empiricheskikh issledovanii) [Competition, Innovation and Strategy: Empirical Evidence from Russian Enterprises]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic Issues], 2013, no.12, pp. 86-108. 6. Sovetov P.M., Volkova S.A., Sovetova N.P. Faktory i usloviya perekhoda k innovatsionnomu tipu razvitiya agroekonomiki [Factors and Conditions Promoting the Transition to Innovation Type of Development for Agro- Economics]. Nauchnoe obozrenie [Scientific Review], 2014, no.2, pp. 219-228.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 225 BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY

UDC 338.43(470.12), LBC 60.7(21) 65.32-983.1(2Rus-4Vol) © Chekavinskii A.N., Selimenkov R.Y. Modelling of food security in the region

Aleksandr Nikolaevich CHEKAVINSKII Research Associate, Acting Head of the Laboratory, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Roman Yur’evich SELIMENKOV Ph.D. in Economics, Deputy Head of the Department, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The article considers indicators that can be used for evaluating the condition of food security in the region. Taking into consideration the approaches existing in scientific literature, the authors have substantiated optimal and critical values of the ratios of sufficiency of consumption and affordability of food. Statistical data on the Vologda Oblast have been processed and on this basis the economic-mathematical models have been built, which reflect the influence of various factors on food security. The authors have determined that the main factors include the per capita volume of import and domestic production of food, the level of intensity of agriculture and economic activity of population, and the proportion of residents with incomes below the subsistence level. Trend models have been composed for each of the factor variables; these models, with the help of extrapolation method, have been used for calculating forecast values and determining the parameters of the coefficients of sufficiency of consumption and economic affordability of food. The revealed relationships have helped identify key areas of regional policy that contribute to improvement of food security in the Vologda Oblast. Key words: food security in the region, economic-mathematical model, sufficiency of consumption and economic accessibility of food.

226 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY A.N. Chekavinskii, R.Y. Selimenkov

The issues concerning identification of by supplies from abroad. Therefore, measures threats to economic security and substantia- to promote competition in the domestic tion of mechanisms to neutralize them are market, the customs-tariff regulation, pro- becoming very acute in the context of incre- motion of agricultural production do not re- asing openness of the Russian economy. duce the risk of food shortages as a result of Food security acquires critical importance. termination (reduction of volume) of import. This is caused primarily by the fact that, The issue of food security in Russia is since food consumption is a vital necessity aggravated by problems in the sectors such as of population, the creation of conditions to storing, processing and distribution of food to provide food of appropriate quality in the the population. The Strategy for development required amount and for affordable prices is of food and processing industry in Russia one of the priorities for authorities at all levels. for the period up to 2020 [5] indicates that The analysis of statistics data allows us to the production capacities of flour and grain say that the tools currently used in public and mill, baking, sugar, dairy and meat industries municipal administration do not ensure a are mostly physically and morally obsolete fully acceptable level of food security in (depreciation of equipment is 70–80%), and Russia. For example, although every resident they are used by less than half. of Russia has the opportunity to purchase In general, economic affordability of food food, it is largely supported by import. In remains low. This is caused largely by the 2013 the share of import accounted for nearly excess of food prices growth rate compared 24% in the total amount of consumed milk, to the growth rate of real monetary incomes as for meat, this figure was 23% (fig. 1). The of population, which leads to a decrease in demand for some foodstuffs is covered partly their purchasing power (fig. 2).

Figure 1. Share of food import in Russia in total consumption, %

35 30.7 28.8 30 26.7 25.6 23.9 25 22.6 20.7 20.5 21.5 20 17.8

15

10

5

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Milk Meat

Source: calculated according to the food balance sheets of Rosstat.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 227 Modelling of food security in the region

Figure 2. Growth rate of consumer food prices and real disposable money incomes of Russia’s population, in % to 2008

150 144.2

140 134.1

130 124.7 120 120 106.3 110 118.3 114.7 100 100 109.1 109.6 103 90

80 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Consumer prices for foodstuffs Real disposable money incomes

Source: calculated according to Rosstat.

Therefore, in the near future, state and At the same time, another important issue municipal authorities should solve the prob- for the management of food security at the lem of expanding citizens’ opportunities to regional level is connected with the absence purchase high-quality food. of a mathematical model to assess and There are other issues of food security in forecast its condition, taking into account Russia that urge governments at all levels to the set of factors that influence supply and take appropriate and timely measures. In demand on the regional food market. This particular, it is necessary to reduce the degree article is devoted to the solution of this of monopolization of agricultural market by problem. foreign companies1, to deprive them of an The summary of a number of works of opportunity to control agricultural land2. Russian scientists [1, 4] provided an oppor- 1 In 2012, according to the Ministry of Agriculture of tunity to determine the set of conditions that Russia [8], foreign companies accounted for almost 60% of ensures food security at the regional level. milk processing market, 70% of juice market, more than 80% of the market of frozen vegetables, fruits and brewing and about They consist in the ability of the system of 90% of the market of canned fruit and vegetables. production, storage, processing, wholesale 2 According to the data of the Russian agricultural portal [2], the Swedish investment fund “Black Earth Farming” and retail trade of food products to satisfy through its subsidiary Russian company “Agro-invest” controls (consistently and evenly throughout a year) about 300 thousand hectares in the Central Black Earth region; the Danish company “Trigon Agri” controls 100 thousand the needs of all social groups in the volume hectares in the Penza and Samara oblasts, the Kazakhstan of consumption that meets evidence-based company “Ivolga-holding” controls about 500 thousand hectares. medical standards.

228 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY A.N. Chekavinskii, R.Y. Selimenkov

At the same time, and it is also important, of the value of consumer (food) basket (Vcb ) economic entities involved in the production to average per capita income (I ): and sales of food, must function in the mode V ɋ = cb ×100. (2) of extended reproduction. ab I Therefore, a crucial requirement to ensure food security in the region is the sufficiency We shall consider the lower threshold of of consumption of basic foodstuffs. In our the share of expenditures on food in household opinion, its level can be estimated by using the budgets to be 10% (optimal level). This level is typical for the average resident of the coefficient (Csf ), which represents the ratio of the actual amount of consumption of the United States and developed countries such as the UK, Switzerland [7]. If the cost of i-th food (Ca ) to the amount corresponding 3 the minimum set of food products in the to rational standards (Cs ) : total expenditure ranges from 10 to 20%, C ɋ = a . (1) the affordability of food can be considered sf C s average. This level is observed in France, Spain, Italy, Portugal. If the share of food If the value of the coefficient is one unit, expenditure is more than 20% but less than we can talk about the optimal level of 30%, this indicates the low standard of living, sufficiency of food consumption. It will and, consequently, low economic access to become critical when the value of the food (Latvia, Estonia). coefficient of sufficiency (C ) will be less than sf When the ratio exceeds 30%, there are the ratio of the amount of consumption of significant difficulties in the purchase of the i-th food product according to medical foodstuffs, i.e. we can say that the level of standards to the appropriate volume in the their economic affordability is critical minimum consumer basket. (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova). Our calculations show that the lower Thus, modeling the values of the above threshold of the coefficient of sufficiency coefficients, it is possible to forecast the level in 2012 was as follows: for potato – 0.85, of food security in the region, and to identify for milk – 0.87, for meat and meat pro- the reserves for its improvement. ducts – 0.74, for vegetables – 0.80, for We have determined the degree of influ- eggs – 0.79. ence of various factors on the dynamics of Another important requirement for food consumption sufficiency in the course ensuring food security in the region lies in of conducting the correlation-regression ana- economic affordability of food for the lysis of the data from the official statistical population. Its level can be measured using reporting on the Vologda Oblast for 2000– the index (C ), which represents the ratio ab 2011. The results of the calculations show 3 Rational norms of food products consumption have that the greatest impact on achieving an been approved by the Order of the Ministry of Health and optimal level of this coefficient is caused by Social Development of the Russian Federation of August 2, 2010, No. 593n. factors such as the size of the cultivated area

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 229 Modelling of food security in the region

(for potatoes), population of cows and sing their import or enhancing domestic birds (for milk and eggs). A general view of production, or accelerating the intensification economic-mathematical models is presen- of agribusiness in the region. ted in table 1. The economic availability of food, as it is They all describe a significant proportion evidenced by the results of the regression of the explained variation, and they are analysis, is influenced significantly by factors significant according to the Fisher’s F-test. that characterize the standard of living. The obtained equations show that the Thus, if the proportion of residents with level of per capita consumption of milk, meat incomes below the subsistence level increa- and eggs can be optimized either by increa- ses by 1%, the coefficient of affordability will

Table 1. Results of simulation of the ratio of efficiency of consumption of foodstuffs

Coefficient Equation of the model Notation conventions of determination

Cpotato – coefficient of satisfaction of per capita demand for potato, %

X1 – import of potato, including from abroad, kg/person

X2 – production of potato, kg/person Cpotato = -0.512 - 0.039 × X1 + 0.002 × Х2 - 0.003 × Х3 + X3 – industrial consumption of potato, kg/person 0.995 + 0.007 × Х4 + 88.105 × Х5 – 0.002 × Х6 X4 – export of potato, including to other countries, kg/person

X5 – area for potato cultivation, ha/person

X6 – Potato yield, centners/hectare

Cmilk – coefficient of satisfaction of per capita demand for milk, %

X1 – import of milk, including from abroad, kg/person

X2 – production of milk, kg/person Cmilk = 0.051 + 0.002 × X1 + 0.002 × Х2 - 0.003 × Х3 - X3 – industrial consumption of milk, kg/person 0.735 - 0.0014 × Х4 + 2.320 × Х5 + 0.00003 × Х6 X4 – export of potato, including to other countries, kg/person

X5 – number of cows, head/person

X6 – yield of milk per cow, kg

Cmeat – coefficient of satisfaction of per capita demand for meat, %

X1 – import of meat, including from abroad, kg/person

X2 – production of meat, kg/person Cmeat = -0.070 + 0.012 × X1 + 0.014 × Х2 - 0.487 × Х3 - X3 – industrial consumption of meat, kg/person 0.994 - 0.012 × Х4 - 0.173 × Х5 + 0.0002 × Х6 X4 – export of meat, including to other countries, kg/person

X5 – cattle population, head/person

X6 – average daily gain of cattle, grams

Кяйц – coefficient of satisfaction of per capita demand for eggs, %

X1 – import of eggs, including from abroad, kg/person

X2 – production of eggs, kg/person Ceggs = 0,013 + 0,004 × X1 + 0,004 × Х2 - 0,007 × Х3 - X3 – industrial consumption of eggs, kg/person 0.994 - 0,004 × Х4 + 0,025 × Х5 + 0,0002 × Х6 X4 – export of eggs, including to other countries, kg/person

X5 – poultry population, head/person

X6 – average egg-laying capacity, units, centners/hectare

230 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY A.N. Chekavinskii, R.Y. Selimenkov

increase by 1.48%, and with the growth of by 0.7% (tab. 2). At the same time it is possible consumer prices by 1% it will grow by 0.01%. to increase the production of milk and dairy The increase in economic activity of the products by 2.1%, eggs – by 2.7%. The level population will have a positive impact on the of economic activity of the population and level of their incomes and wealth; which in the consumer price index over the forecast general, other conditions equal, will enhance period will not change significantly. The share the affordability of food. This, in particular, of the population with incomes below the is shown by the obtained regression equation: subsistence level in 2014 can increase from 17.1% to 21.7%. The forecast values of factor variables Cab = 27.853 + 1.482 × X1 + 0.011 × X2 – have been substituted into the obtained regres- – 0.528 × X , (3) 3 sion equations, after that the values of the where: coefficients of sufficiency of consumption C – coefficient of economic affordability of ab and coefficient of economic affordability of food products, %; food have been determined. The calculations X – the proportion of the population with 1 allow us to conclude that in the future the incomes below the subsistence level, %; average per capita consumption of potato X – consumer price index, %; 2 will decrease and reach the critical level of X – the level of economic activity of popula- 3 83% from the physiological norm (tab. 3). tion, %. An average resident of Vologda will consume The factors that are taken into account in more milk and meat and their derivatives. the model of calculating the coefficient of Consumption of eggs in the forecast period affordability cause 98% of the explained will not change significantly and remain at variation with 95% probability. The regression the same level, which is 24% higher than the equation is significant by all the statistical physiological norm. Economic affordability parameters. of food in the future will decrease due to the The forecast of the values of the coeffici- significant increase in the share of the popula- ent of sufficiency and coefficient of econo- tion with incomes below the subsistence level. mic affordability on the basis of obtained Summarizing the results of these mea- economic-mathematical models is possible surements, we can come to the conclusion with extrapolation of the trends of factorial that to ensure food security in the Vologda variables within them. Equations of trends Oblast its government and municipal autho- are described with linear, polynomial, rities should pay attention first of all to the exponential and logarithmic functions. enhancement of economic affordability of The results of forecast calculations food. Much is already being done in these indicate that, if we proceed from the current areas. For instance, all municipalities since retrospective trends, then the per capita 2012 have been implementing the action production of potato in the Vologda Oblast “Yellow price tag”, which sets the minimum in 2014 can be reduced in comparison with price markup for socially important food 2011 by 28%, meat and meat products – products.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 231 Modelling of food security in the region

Table 2. Forecast of the values of factor variables used in the models for calculating the coefficient of sufficiency of consumption and the coefficient of economic affordability of food

Fact Forecast 2014 to Indicator (factor variable) Trend equation 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011, %

Import of potato, kg/person y = -0.314Ln(x) + 1.935 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 78.6

Production of potato, kg/person y = 384.5x-0.324 222.3 167.7 163.7 160.1 72.0

Industrial consumption of potato, kg/person y = 222.7x-0.476 64.4 65.6 63.3 61.3 95.2

Import of potato, kg/person y = 0.368x2 – 6.981x + 40.241 12.2 11.7 14.7 18.3 150.0

Area for potato cultivation, ha/person y = 0.024x-0.167 0.016 0.016 0.015 0.015 93.8

Potato yield, centners/hectare y = 1.103x2 – 17.92x + 184.47 140.3 137.8 149.7 163.7 116.7

Import of milk, including from abroad, y = -2.185x2 + 33.82x - 38.66 41.4 38.6 36.0 33.6 81.2 kg/person

Production of milk, kg/person y = 0.413x2 – 8.963x + 421.43 372.2 374.7 376.9 379.9 102.1

Industrial consumption of milk, kg/person y = -1.695x + 62.46 40.8 40.4 38.7 37.0 90.7

Export of milk, kg/person y = -2.638x2 + 37.99x + 64.09 133.6 122.3 111.9 102.4 76.6

Number of cows, head/person y = -0.0038x + 0.115 0.072 0.066 0.062 0.058 80.6

Yield of milk per cow, kg y = 3005x0.209 5127.0 5144.3 5224.8 5300.9 103.4

Import of meat, kg/person y = 2.0385x + 8.79 35.8 35.3 37.3 39.4 110.1

Production of meat, kg/person y = -0.222x + 43.79 40.8 40.9 40.7 40.5 99.3

Industrial consumption of meat, kg/person y = 0.0005x + 0.078 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 100.0

Export of meat, kg/person y = -1.108Ln(x) + 7.131 5.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 77.4

Cattle population, head/person y = -0.0078x + 0.244 0.154 0.143 0.135 0.127 82.5

Average daily gain of cattle, grams y = 13.963x + 415.41 583.7 596.9 610.9 624.9 107.1

Import of eggs, units/person y = 49.98Ln(x) – 8.998 119.4 119.2 122.9 126.4 105.9

Production of eggs, units/person y = 6.648x + 415.25 501.3 501.7 508.3 515.0 102.7

Industrial consumption of eggs, units/person y = -0.117x2 + 2.137x + 19.37 25.3 27.3 26.3 25.0 98.8

Export of eggs, units/person y = 9.924x + 148.71 279.3 277.7 287.7 297.6 106.6

Poultry population, head/person y = 0.011x + 3.337 3.6 3.48 3.49 3.50 97.2

Average egg-laying capacity, units y = 1.273x + 292.56 322.0 309.1 310.4 311.7 96.8

Proportion of population with incomes below y = 0.152x2 – 2.723x + 28.36 17.1 18.6 20.0 21.7 4.6 subsistence level, %

Consumer price index, % y = 118.8x-0.0407 106.4 107.0 106.7 106.4 0.0

Level of economic activity, % y = 66.30x0.017 69.5 69.3 69.4 69.5 0.0

232 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY A.N. Chekavinskii, R.Y. Selimenkov

Table 3. Forecast values of the coefficient of sufficiency of consumption and economic affordability of foodstuffs

Indicator 2011 (fact)2012 2013 2014 Optimal level 2014 to 2011, %

Coefficient of sufficiency of potato consumption 1.00 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.85-1 83.0

Coefficient of sufficiency of milk consumption 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.87-1 104.3

Coefficient of sufficiency of meat consumption 0.95 0.96 0.99 1.02 0.74-1 107.4

Coefficient of sufficiency of eggs consumption 1.23 1.22 1.23 1.24 0.79-1 100.8

Coefficient of economic affordability of foodstuffs 19.2 20.1 22.1 24.5 10 127.6

According to the information provided At the same time, it is advisable to by the local authorities, 1422 retail trade intensify efforts to increase economic organizations (the largest number of parti- activity of the population. According to cipants in Vologda is 177, in Cherepovets – some scholars [6], in this connection it is 145 and Vytegorsky District – 105) took part necessary to expand the scope of activities in this sales promotion action. in such areas as: The project “Discount card “Zabota” • creation of new jobs and the promotion (“Care”) is also developing; it provides of self-employment; discounts on goods for certain categories • formation of conditions for attrac- of citizens. If at the beginning of 2012 ting foreign labor force with regard to future four municipalities participated in the demand of the economy for human re- project, at the end of the year their number sources; reached 10 municipal entities, in which • enhancement of territorial mobility of labor; such discounts were provided by 1037 trade • implementation of programs to pro- and services organizations. Major retailers, mote social adaptation and competitiveness network companies also offer various loyalty of young people. programs. Along with the above, it is important to In order to stimulate consumer demand, implement a complex of measures to reduce to increase the sales of goods of agricultu- the share of the population with incomes ral products and processing enterprises, below the subsistence level. According to agricultural fairs are organized regularly, L.V. Kostyleva [3] this problem can be where residents can purchase the products handled if the authorities implement the they need at lower prices than in shops following activities: and retail chains. In 2011 approximately – introduction of the progressive scale of 326 thousand people visited these events in taxation; Vologda alone. At that the prices for dairy – introduction of a system of inter- products were 5–15% lower than the average industry wage regulation. in the city, the prices for vegetables and Of course, a necessary condition for fruits – by 30–50% lower. ensuring food security in the region consists

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 233 Modelling of food security in the region

in promoting the development of agricul- Thus, it is possible to achieve an optimal tural production and its transfer to an inten- level of sufficiency of consumption and sive path of development (these issues are affordability of foodstuffs only if all the discussed in separate publications of the authorities and business implement the set authors4). of activities.

Cited works 1. Gumerov R.R. About the Development of Methodological and Theoretical Problems in the Study of Food Security in Russia. Russian Economic Journal, 2003, no.7, pp. 9-26. 2. Foreign Companies Started to Purchase Land in Russia. Available at: http://agroobzor.ru/article/a-141.html 3. Kostyleva L.V. Inequality of Russia’s Population: Trends, Factors, and Regulation: Monograph. Under the supervision of V.A. Ilyin, Doctor of Economics, Professor. Vologda: Institut sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii RAN, 2011. 223 p. 4. Kostyaev A.I., Timofeev M.U. National and Regional Food Security. Regional Economy: Stabilization and Development: Collected Scientific Articles. Vol. 1. Moscow: VNIETUSKh, 2000. Pp. 500-517. 5. On Approval of the Strategy for Development of Food and Processing Industries of Russia for the Period up to 2020: Resolution of the Russian Federation Government of April 17, 2012 No. 559-r. Legal-Reference System “ConsultantPlus”. 6. Leonidova G.V., Ustinova K.A., Popov A.V., Panov A.M., Golovchin M.A., Solov’eva T.S., Chekmareva E.A. Public Administration Efficiency. Human Capital of Territories: Problems of Formation and Use: Monograph. Under general editorship of A.A. Shabunova. Vologda: Institut sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii RAN, 2013. 184 p. 7. Rating of European Countries by the Share of Household Expenditure on Food. Available at: http://riarating.ru/ infografika/20131224/610604016.html 8. Participation of Foreign Capital in Russia’s Food Industry: Analysis of the Situation, Possible Consequences and Solutions. Available at: http://mcx-consult.ru/d/77622/d/uchastie-innostrannogo-kapitala-v-pischevoy- promylennosti-rossii_analiz.pdf 9. Chekavinskii A.N. Food Security of the Vologda Oblast: Condition and Problems. Territorial Development Issues, 2013, no.3, pp. 1-7. Available at: http://vtr.vscc.ac.ru/?module=Articles&action=view&aid=2860

References 1. Gumerov R.R. K razrabotke metodologo-teoreticheskikh problem issledovaniya prodovol’stvennoi bezopasnosti Rossii [About the Development of Methodological and Theoretical Problems in the Study of Food Security in Russia]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal [Russian Economic Journal], 2003, no.7, pp. 9-26. 2. Inostrannye kompanii nachali skupku zemli v Rossii [Foreign Companies Started to Purchase Land in Russia]. Available at: http://agroobzor.ru/article/a-141.html 3. Kostyleva L.V. Neravenstvo naseleniya Rossii: tendentsii, faktory, regulirovanie: monografiya [Inequality of Russia’s Population: Trends, Factors, and Regulation: Monograph]. Under the supervision of V.A. Ilyin, Doctor of Economics, Professor. Vologda: Institut sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii RAN, 2011. 223 p.

4 See, for example: Uskova T.V., Selimenkov R.Yu., Chekavinskii A.N. Agropromyshlennyi kompleks regiona: sostoyanie, tendentsii, perspektivy: monografiya [Agro-Industrial Complex of the Region: Condition, Trends, Prospects: Monograph]. Vologda: ISERT RAN, 2013. 136 p.

234 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY A.N. Chekavinskii, R.Y. Selimenkov

4. Kostyaev A.I., Timofeev M.U. Natsional’naya i regional’naya prodovol’stvennaya bezopasnost’ [National and Regional Food Security]. Regional’naya ekonomika: stabilizatsiya i razvitie: sb. nauch. trud [Regional Economy: Stabilization and Development: Collected Scientific Articles]. Vol. 1. Moscow: VNIETUSKh, 2000. Pp. 500-517. 5. Ob utverzhdenii Strategii razvitiya pishchevoi i pererabatyvayushchei promyshlennosti Rossii na period do 2020 goda: rasporyazhenie Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 17 aprelya 2012 g. № 559-r [On Approval of the Strategy for Development of Food and Processing Industries of Russia for the Period up to 2020: Resolution of the Russian Federation Government of April 17, 2012 No. 559-r]. Spravochno-pravovaya sistema “Konsul’tantPlyus” [Legal-Reference System “ConsultantPlus”]. 6. Leonidova G.V., Ustinova K.A., Popov A.V., Panov A.M., Golovchin M.A., Solov’eva T.S., Chekmareva E.A. Problemy effektivnosti gosudarstvennogo upravleniya. Chelovecheskii kapital territorii: problemy formirovaniya i ispol’zovaniya: monografiya [Public Administration Efficiency. Human Capital of Territories: Problems of Formation and Use: Monograph]. Under general editorship of A.A. Shabunova. Vologda: Institut sotsial’no- ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii RAN, 2013. 184 p. 7. Reiting stran Evropy po dole raskhodov semei na produkty pitaniya [Rating of European Countries by the Share of Household Expenditure on Food]. Available at: http://riarating.ru/infografika/20131224/610604016.html 8. Uchastie inostrannogo kapitala v pishchevoi promyshlennosti Rossii: analiz situatsii, vozmozhnye posledstviya i puti resheniya [Participation of Foreign Capital in Russia’s Food Industry: Analysis of the Situation, Possible Consequences and Solutions]. Available at: http://mcx-consult.ru/d/77622/d/uchastie-innostrannogo-kapitala- v-pischevoy-promylennosti-rossii_analiz.pdf 9. Chekavinskii A.N. Prodovol’stvennaya bezopasnost’ Vologodskoi oblasti: sostoyanie i problem [Food Security of the Vologda Oblast: Condition and Problems]. Voprosy territorial’nogo razvitiya [Territorial Development Issues], 2013, no.3, pp. 1-7. Available at: http://vtr.vscc.ac.ru/?module=Articles&action=view&aid=2860

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 235 BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY

UDC 332.14, LBC 65.49 © Smirennikova E.V., Karmakulova A.V. Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents stipulating tourism development in the northern regions of Russia*

Elena Vladimirovna SMIRENNIKOVA Ph.D. in Geography, Senior Research Associate, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution Arkhangelsk Scientific Centre, the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (3, Sadovaya Street, Arkhangelsk, 163000, Russia, [email protected])

Anna Vyacheslavovna KARMAKULOVA Junior Research Associate, Graduate Student, Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution Arkhangelsk Scientific Centre, the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (3, Sadovaya Street, Arkhangelsk, 163000, Russia, [email protected])

Abstract. The authors performed critical analysis of 26 strategic and program documents of federal and regional significance, governing the development of tourism, to allocate problems and targets of the development of tourism and risks of realization of the tourism development programs. The authors used scoring and expert evaluation methods to develop the technique, which estimates the elaboration of strategic and policy documents governing the development of tourism. The developed technique is used for evaluation of strategic and program documents of the northern regions of Russia. The guidelines for the establishment of regional tourism development programs are given. Key words: strategic and program management, tourism, socio-economic development, the northern regions of Russia.

* The article was prepared within the project No. 12-P-47-2013 (program of the RAS Presidium) “Development of strategic development orientations and institutes of reclamation of Northern, polar and Arctic areas”.

236 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY E.V. Smirennikova, A.V. Karmakulova

Due to the country’s transition to the However, the significant contribution to innovation type of economy, the resource- entrepreneurship development, different oriented northern regions of Russia1 have types of self-employment and job creation been challenged to abandon the raw-material can be recognized as a key social outcome economy model. One of the main and most from forming a competitive tourist complex promising directions of diversification is the in the Northern regions. This is especially creation and development of a competitive relevant due to a difficult demographic tourist complex. situation in these regions: negative natural Russia’s northern regions have significant increase and significant out-migration. tourist potential. Their territories concentrate Today strategic and program documents unique natural and recreational resources, are one of the main mechanisms to control objects of national and world cultural tourism development both in regions and in and historical heritage. People celebrate the country. However, in most regions of important economic, cultural and social the North, the process of program-strategic events. All this, together with the factor of management is of a formal character. unexplored areas, promotes creation of new Strategies and programs are not elaborated tourist products, satisfying the need to travel in detail; they often have unclear, vague to more distant, less known and inaccessible objectives, not relevant to proposed actions. places. There are certain problems. Tourism development in the regions under The strategic plans and programs approved consideration can have a positive impact on by the regional authorities are often just the preservation and support of Indigenous declarative [35]. When working on strategies Minorities of the North (IMN). The shutdown and programs, Executive bodies of RF of many collective farms in the period of subjects have to rely on their neighbors’ reforms, where Indigenous Peoples had experience. worked, resulted in impossibility for many However, without detailed study and of them to meet the challenge and find job assessment of many options, it is difficult to places, joining the ranks of the unemployed. determine what document is a good pattern Tourism provides abundant opportunities for and what needs serious improvements. their employment, while helping to preserve According to various estimates, although their original culture (organizing ethnic tours, tourism is recognized as one of priority producing souvenirs, etc.). economy sectors and important tool to improve the level and quality of life, only 1 The RF Northern regions comprise territories located 15–17% of rich tourism potential is used in in the Extreme North and areas equated to them: Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Magadan and Sakhalin oblasts, [1]. Karelia, Komi, Sakha (Yakutia) and Tyva, Nenets, Yamalo- Nenets, Khanty-Mansi, Chukotka Autonomous okrugs and Low efficiency of used unique natural Kamchatka Krai. and cultural-historical resources, weak

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 237 Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents stipulating tourism development...

development of tourist infrastructure and The main drawback of this approach is lack of competitive tourist products reveal that it lacks measurable results of the insufficient management of tourism deve- assessment and thus the possibility of making lopment on the federal and especially regional comparisons. levels. The Order of Development and Imple- What is more, due to significant diffe- mentation of Federal Target Programs rentiation of socio-economic develop- stipulated by the Russian Government ment and regions’ tourist potential, the role Decree (June 26, 1995, no. 594) [25], the of regional authorities in management projects of federal target programs are to of tourism development increases consi- be submitted for evaluation to the Ministry derably. of Economic Development of the Russian All this has predetermined the need for Federation. Special attention is paid to: critical analysis and elaboration of methods • priority of the task proposed for to assess strategic and program documents of program solution; the regional level, regulating the issues of • validity, completeness and envi- tourism development. ronmental safety of program activities, terms The government has currently developed of their implementation; a number of recommendations to assess • attraction of extra-budgetary funds, strategic and program documents. So, funds of RF subjects’ budgets to realize a according to the Order of the Ministry target program in conjunction with the of Regional Development of the Russian possibilities of its state support at the expense Federation [26], the evaluation criteria of of the federal budget; the Strategy are: • efficiency of the mechanism to – quality of elaboration of the main implement a target program; problems of Russia’s socio-economic • socio-economic efficiency of a target development, assessment of external and program in general, expected outcomes of the internal factors and scenario analysis; program and its impact on structural – compliance of the priorities, objectives reorganization of Russian economy. and tasks of RF subject’s activity to implement The given criteria reveal that even less the Strategy with the identified priority areas attention is paid to the issues of problems of development in general; elaboration and targets justification when – quality of the assessment of main evaluating federal target programs than when obstacles and relevancy of the resources, assessing strategies. The criteria do not have available to a RF subject, to the goals and quantification, like in the previous document, objectives stated in the Strategy; with it being a serious drawback. – degree of coordination of the Strategy The interests of the scientific community with development strategies of the RF are focused mostly on solving the problems branches and strategic documents of the of assessing results of the implementation of neighboring regions of Russia. strategic and program documents [2, 3], and

238 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY E.V. Smirennikova, A.V. Karmakulova

the contribution of these documents to the The region that focuses on tourism gets 1 development of a socio-economic process or point, otherwise – 0 points (tab. 1). phenomenon [27]. Thus, today there are no 2. Elaboration of the tourism development methodological tools to quantify the drafting issues in the strategy for socio-economic of strategic and program documents in the development in the region. part of complexity of problems elaboration 3. Elaboration of the tourism development and targets justification. issues in the program for tourism development In our opinion, the assessment of regional in the region. strategic and program documents is a key to The tourism development problems, their successful implementation. Ten basic outlined in strategic and program documents, criteria are selected for it. Points are used should be identified on the basis of the for their numerical estimate. These methods complex analysis of tourism potential of the compare various indicators, disclosing region and linked to the issues, highlighted elaboration of documents, and apply an in strategic and program documents of the integrated value, reducing all variety of federal level. It helps to set targets for tourism studied criteria to a single value – points [4]. development properly, as well as to coordinate The advantage of the point evaluation method the actions of federal and regional authorities, over others is explicitness of its results: in facing the problems. most cases, the better-written document has In the strategic and program documents higher points. of the federal level (the State program of the The indicators that reveal the elaboration Russian Federation “Development of culture of strategic and program documents, and tourism for 2013–2020” [18], the federal regulating the issues of tourism development target program “Development of internal and in the region, are the following: inbound tourism in the Russian Federation 1. Selection of tourism as a priority for (2011–2018)” [13], the Strategy of tourism socio-economic development in the strategy for socio-economic development of the development in the Russian Federation for region. the period up to 2015 [23]), we select the top The strategy for socio-economic five most acute problems that require urgent development of the region plays a key role solutions. while making strategic decisions, aimed at They are characteristic for all RF sub- its development in the long term and jects: achievement of competitive advantages with – insufficient development of tourism regard to possible changes in the external infrastructure; environment. With tourism being a priority, – unprofitable economic conditions to the region develops appropriate programs attract investment in tourism infrastructure, and coordinates the efforts of all executive lack of investment sites, presence of bodies, responsible for the implementation administrative barriers; of this direction. – lack of qualified personnel;

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 239

Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents stipulating tourism development...

coefficient.

development

With weighting weighting With

the program for tourism tourism for program the

coefficient Risk management in in management Risk

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient.

disclosed in the Program Program the in disclosed

With weighting weighting With

development targets, targets, development

coefficient Consistency of the tourism tourism the of Consistency

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient.

disclosed in the Strategy the in disclosed

With weighting weighting With

development targets, targets, development

coefficient Consistency of the tourism tourism the of Consistency

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient. Strategy

With weighting weighting With disclosed in the Program and and Program the in disclosed

development targets, targets, development

coefficient

Consistency of the tourism tourism the of Consistency

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient. Strategy

With weighting weighting With stated in the Program and and Program the in stated

development problems, problems, development

coefficient

Consistency of the tourism tourism the of Consistency

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient.

development in the Program Program the in development

With weighting weighting With

targets for tourism tourism for targets

coefficient Complexity when setting setting when Complexity

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient.

development in the Strategy the in development

With weighting weighting With

targets for tourism tourism for targets

coefficient Complexity when setting setting when Complexity

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient.

P rogram P

With weighting weighting With

development issues in the the in issues development

coefficient Elaboration of the tourism tourism the of Elaboration

Without weighting weighting Without

coefficient.

issues of tourism development in the Northern regions Russia Strategy With weighting weighting With

development issues in the the in issues development

coefficient Elaboration of the tourism tourism the of Elaboration Without weighting weighting Without

Table 1. Estimate of elaboration strategic and program documents regulating the Table

coefficient.

development in the Strategy Strategy the in development

With weighting weighting With

priority for socio-economic socio-economic for priority

coefficient Selection of tourism as a a as tourism of Selection Without weighting weighting Without 1 0.180 0.51 0 0.015 0.181 1 0.5 1 0.015 0.181 0.06 0.5 0 0.03 0.18 00 0.015 0 0 00 1 0 0 01 0.06 0 1 0 0.5 1 0.015 0.18 11 0.05 0.5 1 0.23 0 0.5 0 0.03 0.05 0.18 01 0.05 0.5 0.015 0 0 0.02 1 1 0 0.18 10 1 0 0 0.23 0.03 1 1 0.23 01 0.06 1 0 0 0 1 0.06 0.03 1 0.18 0 1 0.05 1 0 0 0.06 0 1 0.04 0 0 0.05 1 0.23 0 1 0.06 0 0.5 1 0 0.23 0 0 0 1 0.115 0 0.5 0.05 0.09 0 0 0.5 0 0.09 0.025 0 0 1 0.5 1 1 0.5 0.02 0 0.025 0 0.5 0 0.06 0.5 0.115 0 0.23 0.5 0.19 0.5 0.025 0.045 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.045 0 1 0 0.095 0 0 0 0.025 0.02 0.045 0.5 0 1 0.04 0.5 0.5 1 0.025 0 1 0 0 0 0.115 0 0.025 0.08 1 1 0.19 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0.09 0.19 1 0 0.5 0 0 0.025 1 0 0 0.19 0 0 0 1 0.05 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.19 1 0.08 0.09 0 0 0 0 0.19 0 0.5 0.5 1 0 0.045 0 0.095 0.08 0 0 1 0 0 0.19 0 0 0 0 1 0.08 Region NAO Republic of Karelia Republic of Komi Murmansk Oblast KhMAO YNAO Republic Tyva Republic Yakutia Kamchatka Krai Magadan Oblast Sakhalin Oblast Arkhangelsk Oblast

240 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY E.V. Smirennikova, A.V. Karmakulova

– insufficient advertising of tourist – increase in investment attractiveness possibilities both on foreign and domestic of the territory; markets; – development of the system to train – imperfection of legislation in the personnel in the sphere of tourism (including sphere of tourism. higher and secondary professional education, The assessment of strategic and program professional development and staff training); documents, regulating the issues of tourism – information and image promotion of development in the region, shows that if the Russia as a country, favorable for tourism on strategy or program has one of the five issues world and internal tourist markets; selected at the federal level, the document – enhancement of normative legal gets the value of 0.2 (1/5); if – two of the five regulation in the sphere of tourism; selected problems – 0.4 (2/5) and so on. Then – creation of tourist-recreational and all the obtained values are ranked into three autotourists clusters. groups by the method of equal intervals. As The research in the elaboration of strategic a result, the strategic documents that have a and program documents, regulating the issues value from 0 to 0.13 receive 0 points; from of tourism development in the region, 0.14 to 0.27 – 0.5 points; 0.28 to 0.4 – 1 point. discloses that if the strategy or program has The program documents that have a value in one of the six selected targets, the document the range from 0 to 0.26 received 0 points; gets the value of 0.16 (1/6); if two of the six from 0.27 to 0.53 – 0.5 points; from 0.54 to selected targets, then – 0.33 (2/6), etc. Then 0.8 – 1 point (see table 1). all the obtained values are ranked into three 4. Complexity when setting targets for groups by the method of equal intervals. As a tourism development in the strategy for result, the strategic documents that have the socio-economic development of the region. value from 0.17 to 0.39 receive 0 points; from 5. Complexity when setting targets for 0.4 to 0.61 – 0.5 points; from 0.62 to 0.83 – tourism development in the program for 1 point. The program documents that have tourism development of the region. a value in the range from 0 to 0.22 receive 0 Target setting is a primary phase of the points; from 0.23 to 0.44 – 0.5 points; from management process. Correct goal setting 0.45 up to 0.66 – 1 point (see table 1). depends largely on the possibility of achieving 6. Consistency of the tourism the desired result. In the federal strategic and development problems, stated in the strategy program documents, we select six of the most for socio-economic development and the common targets of tourism development program for tourism development in the that are relevant and meaningful to all RF region. subjects: 7. Consistency of the tourism – development and improvement of development targets, disclosed in the strategy tourism infrastructure, including associated for socio-economic development and the spheres (transport, public catering, program for tourism development in the entertainment and others); region.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 241 Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents stipulating tourism development...

The strategy for socio-economic and objectives for tourism development in development of the region is a base document the region. When assessing the consistency for the programs regulating development of of problems and targets for each normative one or another sphere of life in the region. It document we calculate the ratio where the is presupposed by the fact that the highlighted numerator is problems and targets, agreed in problems and goals of tourism development the strategy or program, and the denominator in the strategy and the program should be is a total number of problems/targets, singled consistent with each other for the effective out in the regional documents. Then all the and coordinated work of the executive obtained values are ranked into three groups authorities. by the method of equal intervals. As a result, To assess the consistency of problems/ the strategic and program documents that targets for each legal instrument we calculate have a value from 0 to 0.266 receive 0 points; the ratio where the numerator is problems/ from 0.267 up of 0.533 – 0.5 points; from targets in the strategy and program, and the 0.534 to 0.8 – 1 point (see table 1). denominator is a total number of problems/ 10. Risk management in the program for targets, singled out in the regional documents. tourism development in the region. Then all the obtained values are ranked into Risk management of program document three groups by the method of equal intervals. implementation is one of mandatory sections As a result, the strategic documents that have while preparing it. Competent risk a value from 0 to 0.17 receive 0 points; from management enables you to develop the 0.18 to 0.33 – 0.5 points; from 0.34 to 0.5 – strategy to minimize risks and to allocate 1 point. The program documents that have additional funds for its implementation. a value in the range from 0 to 0.26 receive 0 Since some risks jeopardize successful points; from 0.27 to 0.53 – 0.5 points; from implementation of the program, risk 0.54 to 0.8 – 1 point. management is fundamental to the entire 8. Compliance of the targets with the program management. If the tourism tourism development problems, stated in the development program takes into account risks strategy for socio-economic development of of its implementation, this region receives the region (tab. 2). 1 point. If risks are not taken into account, 9. Compliance of the targets with the then – 0 points (see table 1). tourism development problems, stated in the The next stage to assess strategic and program for socio-economic development of program documents, regulating the issues of the region. tourism development in the Northern The elaboration of tourism development regions, after the selection of indicators is to targets should be based on a thorough and identify their contribution to elaboration of comprehensive analysis of the state of the the given documents by calculating weighting regional tourist-recreation complex. The coefficients. Weighting coefficients show problem, singled out in the analysis, should the contribution of the indicator to the be taken into account when setting goals final result and indicate the percentage of

242 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast

BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY E.V. Smirennikova, A.V. Karmakulova

clusters

recreational and autotourists autotourists and recreational

Creation of tourist- of Creation

of tourism of legal regulation in the sphere sphere the in regulation legal

•

Enhancement of normative normative of Enhancement

in the sphere of tourism of sphere the in

Imperfection in the legislation legislation the in Imperfection

promotion of the territory the of promotion

Informational, image image Informational, • tourist possibilities tourist

s of tourism development in the Northern regions of

Insufficient advertising of of advertising Insufficient

n the tourism sphere sphere tourism the n

to train personnel i personnel train to

Development of the system system the of Development

sphere sphere

personnel in the tourism tourism the in personnel

Shortage of qualified qualified of Shortage

attractiveness of the territory the of attractiveness

Increase in investment investment in Increase •••• •

tourism infrastructure tourism

tions to attract investment in in investment attract to tions

Challenging economic condi- economic Challenging

infrastructure improvement of tourism tourism of improvement

•••• •••• •••••• •••• •••• •

Development and and Development

infrastructure Underdeveloped tourism tourism Underdeveloped •• •• • • documents regulating the issues of tourism development in Northern regions Russia Table 2. Compliance of the problems with tourism development targets in strategy and program Table Program [16]Strategy [32]Program [22]Prog. For socio-econ. development [8] •Program [5] •Strategy [30] •Program [19]Strategy [9] •Program [14] • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Strategy [10]The program [7]Strategy [34] Program [6]Strategy [31] • • Program [17]Strategy [12]Program [15] •Strategy [33] • • • • • • •Strategy [11] •Program [20] • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Strategy [29]Program [21] • • • • Region Document Tyva Republic Tyva Republic Yakutia Kamchatka Krai Magadan Oblast Sakhalin Oblast Russia. Murmansk Oblast Kh MAO YNAO Legend: “•” – selection of problems and targets for tourism development in strategic policy documents, regulating the issue Republic of Karelia Republic Komi NAO Strategy [24] • Arkhangelsk Oblast

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 243 Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents stipulating tourism development...

its contribution in comparison with other The calculation results disclose that the indicators. They are calculated on the basis greatest contribution to the elaboration of of expert opinions, which are defined as strategic and program documents, regula- motivated expert judgments. ting the issues of tourism development in the To conduct the expert evaluation 20 region, is characteristic for the indicators experts from the ministries and departments “Complexity in setting targets for tourism of the Arkhangelsk Oblast Government are development in the Program”, “Compliance selected. By means of the experts method of of the targets with the tourism development direct estimation the weighting coefficients problems, stated in the program” and are assigned in unit fractions for each “Selection of tourism as a priority for socio- indicator: the greater the contribution of economic development in the Strategy”, and indicator, the higher a weighting coefficient. the lowest contribution – for the indicator Then the coefficients are averaged by finding “Elaboration of the problems of tourism the average. development in the Strategy” (fig. 1).

Figure 1. Weighting coefficients of indicators of the estimate revealing the elaboration of strategic and program documents that regulate the issues of tourism development in the region

Risk management in the program for tourism development 0.08

Consistency of the tourism development targets, disclosed in the Program 0.19

Consistency of the tourism development targets, 0.05 disclosed in the Strategy

Consistency of the tourism development targets, 0.09 disclosed in the Program and Strategy

Consistency of the tourism development problems, 0.04 stated in the Program and Strategy

Complexity when setting targets for tourism 0.23 development in the Program

Complexity when setting targets for tourism development in the Strategy 0.05

Elaboration of the tourism development 0.06 issues in the Program

Elaboration of the tourism development issues in the Strategy 0.03

Selection of tourism as a priority for socio-economic development in the Strategy 0.18

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25

244 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast BRANCH-WISE ECONOMY E.V. Smirennikova, A.V. Karmakulova

As the result of the estimate, the Northern The analysis and assessment help to regions get points for each of 10 indicators. develop methodological recommendations Then, to adjust their values in accordance to produce regional programs for tourism with the indicator significance, the points development in the Northern regions of the of each region are multiplied by the revealed Russian Federation: weighting coefficient of the corresponding 1. Due to the administrative reform and indicator (see table 1). the introduction of management procedures Thus, the estimate ranks Northern regions in compliance with the results it is required according to the elaboration of the considered to produce state programs for tourism strategic and program documents (fig. 2). development at the regional level. Today The study indicates that the documents it is state programs that become the key are better elaborated in the republics of Sakha mechanism of policy implementation in (Yakutia), Karelia and Komi and the least – a particular area, gradually putting aside in Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous other types of programs (regional, federal, okrugs and in the Magadan Oblast. etc.).

Figure 2. Rating of the Northern regions of Russia according to the elaboration of the strategic and program documents, regulating the issues of tourism development in the region

1.2

1.000 1

0.820 0.815 0.8 0.755 0.735 0.700 0.695 0.660

0.6

0.4 0.365

0.155 0.2 0.125 0.090

0

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 245 Estimation of elaboration of strategic and program policy documents stipulating tourism development...

2. It is necessary to ensure the continuity strategies and programs with the validity of strategic and program documents period equal to the one stated in federal concerning tourism development in terms documents. This will ensure the continuity of adjustment of priority directions and of the legal base and increase the financial targets of the federal and regional level. It capacity to implement program activities at will form common tourist space on the RF the regional level. territory, involving all management levels in 7. To increase the efficiency of program the tourism promotion process. management of tourism development it is 3. It is necessary to consider program necessary to scrutinize the following structural documents of tourism development separately units of the program: competitive advantages, from other spheres, such as culture and sport. problems and targets of tourism development 4. It is necessary to provide a compre- in the region, risks of program activities hensive analysis of tourism development implementation. problems at the regional level, taking into The recommendations, based on the account the issues highlighted in federal scientific analysis and assessment, help to strategic and program documents in the boost the efficiency of tourism development tourism sphere. This will contribute to form in the Northern regions of Russia by the system of goals and objectives relevant improving the procedures for planning and to the principle of uniformity. At the same management of development processes. The time, the compliance of the set targets with robust evaluation system promotes continuity the selected problems will be achieved. of the policy in the tourism development 5. It is necessary to identify, assess and sphere, makes the assessment an integral manage the risks of program documents procedure of regional management. What is implementation at the regional level in the more, this assessment concludes whether the tourism sphere. For this purpose it is possible document can be used as a pattern and a target to use the list of risks identified in the while considering the programs of tourism State program of the Russian Federation development in the neighboring regions. “Development of culture and tourism for This, in turn, can stabilize the economic 2013–2020”. situation, mitigate social problems and act as 6. When adopting strategic or policy a real factor in preservation and reproduction documents at the federal level it is necessary of natural and cultural-historical potential of to ensure the timely development of regional the territories [28].

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30. Strategiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Kamchatskogo kraya do 2025 goda: utv. postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Kamchatskogo kraya ot 27.07.2010 № 332-P [Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of Kamchatka Krai up to 2025: Approved by the Decree of the Kamchatka Krai Government of July 27, 2010, no. 332-P]. Available at: http://www.reec.rushydro.ru/file/main/reec/company/law/Development_strategy_Kamchatskyi_kray_2025. pdf. (accessed December 25, 2013). 31. Strategiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Murmanskoi oblasti do 2020 goda i na period do 2025 goda: odobrena postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Murmanskoi oblasti ot 25.12.2013 № 768–PP/20 [Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Murmansk Oblast up to 2020 and for the Period up to 2025: Approved by the Decree of the Government of the Murmansk Oblast of December 25, 2013, no. 768-PP/20]. Available at: http://minec.gov- murman.ru/content/strat_plan/sub02/sub02/ (accessed December 25, 2013). 32. Strategiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Respubliki Tyva do 2020 goda: odobrena postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Respubliki Tyva ot 30.01.2012 № 28 [Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Tyva Republic up to 2020, Approved by the Decree of the Government of the Tyva Republic of January 30, 2012, no. 28]. Available at: http://www.mert.tuva.ru/directions/socio-economic-development/news/31.html (accessed December 25, 2013). 33. Strategiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Yamalo-Nenetskogo avtonomnogo okruga do 2020 goda: utv. postanovleniem Zakonodatel’nogo Sobraniya Yamalo-Nenetskogo avtonomnogo okruga ot 14.12. 2011 g. № 839 [Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug up to 2020: Approved by the Decree of the Legislative Assembly of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug of December14, 2011, no. 839]. Available at: http:de.gov.yanao.ru/component/content/article/263 (accessed December 25, 2013). 34. Strategiya ekonomicheskogo i sotsial’nogo razvitiya Respubliki Komi na period do 2020 goda: odobrena postanovleniem Pravitel’stva Respubliki Komi ot 27.03. 2006 g. № 45 [Strategy for Economic and Social Development of the Komi Republic for the Period up to 2020, Approved by the Decree Of the Government of the Republic of Komi of March 27, 2006, no. 45]. Available at: http://rkomi.ru/services/strategia/ (accessed December 25, 2013). 35. Makovkina S. A. Problematics of Evaluation of Strategic Plans of Social and Economic Development in the Russian Cities. Voprosy upravleniya [Management Issues], 2009, no. 3.

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UDC 330.46, LBC 65v631 © Skorodumov P.V. Modelling of economic systems with Petri nets

Pavel Valeryevich SKORODUMOV Ph.D. in Engineering, Head of the Laboratory for Intelligent and Software- Information Systems at the Federal State-Financed Scientific Institution the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences (56A, Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia,); Associate Professor at the Department of Automatics and Computer Engineering at the Vologda State University (15, Lenin Street, Vologda, 160035, Russia), [email protected].

Abstract. Modelling is one of the most important tools to study complex systems. Components of both continuous and discrete nature are present in the behavior of contemporary economic systems. The article uses formalism of nested hybrid Petri nets as a tool to study complex economic systems. The author describes basic approaches of simulation modelling, concepts of classical Petri nets, modified means of nested hybrid Petri nets, benefits of their use for systems modelling. The article presents the concept of a universal system of simulation modelling. On the basis of considered approaches the article proposes to develop a universal system of simulation modelling on the basis of the modified machine Petri nets. Key words: Complex system, model, simulation modelling, Petri nets, universal system of simulation modelling.

Modern economic systems have both processes in economic systems. The system structural and behavioral complexity. The management is considered to be a process existing concept of a complexity level is stimulating some system to achieve a certain determined by the number of points of goal [2]. In general, the system behavior a particular type, their relationships and is continuous in time, while the control interactions, and “relations order” between processes are of a discrete nature. The them [2]. Behavioral complexity can be complex system that combines components associated with the system behavior in of continuous and discrete natures is referred time and the existence of management to as hybrid.

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One way to study the surrounding systems In 1961 J. Forrester proposed a system is modelling. Modelling is the process that dynamics methodology as a research tool to reflects real (or planned) activities of the study information feedback loops in enterprise by means of a special methodology production and economic activity. The [8]. The model represents a real or abstract processes, taking place in the real world, object, which replaces a research object in the are represented in terms of stocks and flows study due to the existing analogy. The most between them in system dynamics. The natural and important field to use modelling system-dynamic model describes system is the analysis of complex systems, including behavior and its structure as a set of positive social engineering (production, financing, and negative feedbacks and time delays. etc.) [11]. Mathematically, this model looks like a Nowadays, the most effective method system of differential equations [11]. to study economic systems is simulation Agent-based simulation involves a modelling [4]. decentralized model. In this model, there is There are three main approaches: discrete no single point, which determines system event simulation, system dynamics and agent behavior as a whole. The agent model consists based modelling [11]. of many individual objects (agents) and their System dynamics usually operates with environment. System behavior is described continuous-time processes, discrete-event at the individual level; global behavior is and agent based models are used for discrete- seen as the result of the agents’ total activity, time processes. each of them exists in a shared environment, System dynamics implies a maximum interacts with it and other agents due to their level of model abstraction; discrete-event own “charter” [11]. simulation reflects abstraction of low and If you match an abstract submission intermediate levels. Agent-based modelling system with certain graphics primitives and can be applied at any level with a model of link them with lines that have certain logic, any size [11]. you get a net, a graphics image of the J. Gordon was the first to study discrete process. The net methods to describe and event simulation. In the early 1960’s he analyze the processes are preferential as their designed the GPSS system and implemented abstraction is close to the intuitive idea of it on the IBM mainframe. The main object the processes [5]. in this system is a passive transact (service One of the popular graphical tools to study request), which can specifically represent systems is Petri nets (P/T net). They help to workers, parts, raw materials, documents, describe and analyze the length of performance signals, etc. Shifting down the model, and interaction of the operations in the transacts stand in line for single-channel processes of various levels in order to identify and multi-channel devices, capture and the bottlenecks of production and economic release them, split and become destroyed, systems, and to determine the magnitude etc. [11]. and potential for cost reduction of human,

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financial and other resources to perform In Petri nets places comply with these processes. The main advantages of using conditions and transitions – with events. a P/T net in simulation are the following: The dynamics of simulated system behavior 1) the process, defined in P/T net terms, is reflected in the net functioning as a set has a clear and precise representation; of actions, called as transition firings. The 2) the visible graphics of net construction transition rules reveal logical relationship simplifies perception of its definitions and between conditions and events in the system algorithms; 3) the possibility to use different being simulated. methods of analysis [7]. The change of the net status is associated At the same time, the P/T net popularity with the mechanism of the change of a is caused by a good representation of diffe- marking. The initial state of a P/T net is set rent types of objects, present in many of by the initial marking of its place. The the simulated systems, and by an “event- net marking is to assign places to numeric driven” approach to modelling. Petri nets values (tokens). Tokens are a set of attributes describe linkages and interactions of parallel (numbers, variables). The condition is processes [5]. represented by marking of the relevant place, The P/T net is a powerful tool to study namely transition of a number of n-tokens systems due to the possibility to describe (markers) in this place. The transition can many classes of discrete asynchronous, only actuate if all conditions to realize the parallel, distributed, non-deterministic given event are satisfied. There are special systems, visualized presentation of its work, rules or transition procedures for it [3, 6]. developed mathematical and software tools The ordinary Petri net, despite the of analysis. It was specifically designed to breadth of its use, does not help to study simulate the systems that contain parallel complex systems including both discrete and interacting components, such as hardware conti-nuous components. The work [9] and software, flexible production systems, offers a tool of nested hybrid Petri nets social and biological systems [5]. (NHPN), uniting formalisms of hybrid and In general, the Petri net [3] is a directed nested Petri nets. bipartite graph: The hybrid nested Petri net is defined by N = (P ,T ,F ) , (1) means of the following set [10]: N N N NHPN = {Atom,Lab,SN(HPN), where PN is a final set of places, (EN , ... , EN ) , Λ}. (2) TN is a final set of transitions, such as that 1 k P ∩ T = ∅ , N N Atom = Var ∪ Con is a multiset of atoms, is a function of incidence, specifying the FN consisting of variables names and constants multiplicity of arcs, names; F : (P × T ) ∪ (T × P ) → Nat = ∪ N N N N N Lab Labv Labh is a variety of tokens for ( Nat is a set of natural numbers, supplemented both vertical and horizontal transition synchroniza- by zero). tion;

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(EN1, ... , ENk) (k ≥ 1) is a final set of ordinary by the concept of bandwidth that reflects P/T nets; the speed of the token running through the Λ is a function of marketing transitions by transition. means of elements from the set Lab. Marking assigns the whole number of SN(HPN) is a system net in the structure tokens, consistent with their potential, for of the NHPN representing a hybrid Petri net each discrete place. For each continuous (HPN): place it shows where it has a signal or not. Nested hybrid Petri nets include the HPN = (P, T, Pre, Post, D, C,). (3) concepts of the arc weight and inhibitor arc, characteristic for high-level Petri nets. P = P ∪ P is a multiset of discrete and con- d c The significant addition to the device is tinuous places; the possibility of using fractional and nega- T = T ∪ T ∪ T ∪ T is a multiset of discrete, d c K E tive values for the weight of the arc running continuous, transitions of quantization and ex- from the transition. When using the negative trapolation; weight of the arc, we should take into account , are incidence matrices describing Pre Post the potential of the tokens that are in this the set of arcs; position. Regardless of the interpretation of D : T → R + is a function determining the t marking, the equation for the net dynamics delay period for the discrete time transitions; does not change. → + × + is a function revealing the C : Tc R 0 R ∞ The dynamics of the NHPN conduct bandwidth of continuous transitions. describes the following types of steps: The interesting question that arises when 1. The system-autonomous step is studying systems using P/T nets is to introduce activation of the transition of the net system the concept of time in the system. The in accordance with the rules for hybrid Petri concepts of global and local times can be nets, with the elementary nets being used. considered as tokens that do not have their The first one is external time for the own structure. system, with which the latter is connected by 2. The elementary-autonomous step means of the simulation step concept, thus only changes the internal state (marking) of estimating the temporary status of the system, the elementary net without changing its relative to external systems. location in the system net. The second one is used to identify the 3. The step of horizontal synchroniza- delay of discrete transitions and the bandwidth tion is used to synchronize transitions in two of continuous transitions of the NHPN. All elementary nets that are in the same place of discrete transitions are divided into instant the system net. capture, deterministic time and exponential 4. The step of vertical synchronization deterministic. The division is connected with is used to synchronize the transition in the identification of the delay interval for the system network with some transitions of transition. Continuous transitions are defined elementary nets.

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To describe the dynamics of the NHPN Economic-mathematical models have conduct we use the following equation: physical, financial and social factors requiring the use of various tools at the corresponding M = M + C(p,t)U . (4) k k -1 k model level. So, the production-technological model (traditionally viewed as a system of M is a matrix of the net; mass service) is well simulated with discrete U – the control vector determines the set of k event tools like GPSS; the financial model fits transitions, ready for operation at the moment; well into the framework of system dynamics; С(p,t) is a NHPN incidence matrix. The the agent-based approach can be useful for incidence matrix element, located at the intersection simulation of labor resources [11]. of the series indicated by the place p and the i Today simulation of systems that integrate column indicated by the transition t , assigns the j all notes and high computer technologies is value NumM, NumM or 0 when the transition t has j the most promising and rapidly developing an incoming arc from the place pi , an outgoing arc sphere where business and corporations can to the place pi or has no connection with the place apply simulation modelling [4]. pi (where the value NumM is a number of deleted/ added tokens). The value NumM is determined on The concept of a universal modelling the basis of types of the place and transition, as well system gives an opportunity to save time as the weight of the arc connecting them. necessary for design and implementation of The modified tool of nested hybrid Petri a simulation model, to make the model nets extends the application of classical Petri more simple and accessible. This reduces the nets and existing extensions and helps to probability of errors in the course of models explore hybrid systems with a complex development due to insufficient knowledge structure as a whole. of the language means, negligence in the The representation of individual parts of work with large volumes of information, the system in the form of nested Petri nets etc. [1]. helps to simplify the perception of the huge The concept of the universal system of and lengthy P/T net, to make the model of the simulation modelling is based on the prin- system more transparent and understandable ciples of simplicity, modularity and adap- and simulate multicomponent structures of tability [1]. varying complexity, including systems with The first principle involves the user’s the elements of service. minimum knowledge of the modelling system The introduction of new transitions of and, as a result, low labor costs. quantization and extrapolation, the concepts The second one involves the existence of of arc weight, permitting and prohibiting arcs, model systems that are common for different modified rules of working with them makes classes – developed modules. the proposed formalism more powerful and The third reflects the ability to cover expressive means of describing not only complex unstructured multi-level objects, hybrid systems, but various mathematical the elements of which are dynamic systems functions and algorithms. in a broad sense.

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Existing simulation systems can be divi- nested hybrid Petri nets. There are certain ded into two groups: systems using classical advantages of the new system: modelling languages (GPSS, iThink Analyst, 1. Its implementation on the basis of Arena) and specialized systems, oriented simulation modelling. to solve the tasks of simulation modelling 2. Integration of all positive features of of a particular narrow subject area. The Petri nets. advantages of one group of modelling systems 3. Possibility to develop models on the are disadvantages of the other. Creation basis of various extensions of Petri nets. of the system covering the largest range of 4. Integration of all notes of simulation real objects, and, first of all, the systems, modelling. the product of which is management, is of 5. Its implementation on the basis of the considerable interest [1]. concept of the universal system of simulation All the stated above shows that it is modelling. worthwhile constructing universal simulation 6. Possibility of application in various systems on the basis of the modified tool of researches.

Cited works 1. Dukhanov A. V., Medvedeva O. N. Simulation Modeling of Complex Systems: a Course of Lectures. Vladimir: VGU, 2010. 118 p. 2. Kobelev N. B. Bases for Simulation Modeling of Complex Economic Systems. Moscow: Delo, 2003. 336 p. 3. Kotov V. E. Petri Nets. Moscow: Nauka, 1984. 160 p. 4. Lychkina N. N. Dynamic Simulation Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems and its Application in Information- Analytical Solutions for Strategic Management. Available at: http://strategybusiness.ru/dinamika-soczialno- ekonomicheskix-sistem/dinamicheskoe-imitaczionnoe-modelirovanie-razvitiya-soczialno-ekonomicheskix- sistem-i-ego-primenenie-v-informaczionno-analiticheskix-resheniyax-dlya-strategicheskogo-upravleniya.html. 5. Mal’kov M. V., Malygina S. N. Petri Nets and Modeling. Available at: http://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/seti-petri- i-modelirovanie. 6. Peterson J. Petri Net Theory and the Modelling of Systems. Moscow: Mir, 1984. 264 p. 7. Poleshchuk N. A. Cost Modelling in Economic Systems Using Petri Nets. Available at: http://www.marketing-mba. ru/article/v4_11/Paliashchuk.pdf. 8. Repin V. V., Eliferov V. G. Process Approach to Management. Modeling of Business Processes. Moscow: Mann, Ivanov i Ferber, 2013. 544 p. 9. Skorodumov P. V. Modeling of Complex Dynamic Systems on the Basis of Nested Hybrid Petri Nets. Management Systems and Information Technologies: Research and Technology Journal. Moskow; Voronezh: Nauchnaya kniga, 2008, pp. 182-187. 10. Skorodumov P. V. Modeling of Technological Processes in Terms of Petri Nets. Scientific Aspects of Innovation Research: Materials of the First International Research-to-Practice Conference. Samara: OOO “Insoma-press”, 2013, pp. 30-34. 11. Chernyshova N.N. Simulation Modeling of Business Processes: Study Guide. Nizhnii Novgorod: NGU im. Lobachevskogo, 2010. 28 p.

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References 1. Dukhanov A. V., Medvedeva O. N. Imitatsionnoe modelirovanie slozhnykh sistem: kurs lektsii [Simulation Model- ing of Complex Systems: a Course of Lectures]. Vladimir: VGU, 2010. 118 p. 2. Kobelev N. B. Osnovy imitatsionnogo modelirovaniya slozhnykh ekonomicheskikh system [Bases for Simulation Modeling of Complex Economic Systems]. Moscow: Delo, 2003. 336 p. 3. Kotov V. E. Seti Petri [Petri Nets]. Moscow: Nauka, 1984. 160 p. 4. Lychkina N. N. Dinamicheskoe imitatsionnoe modelirovanie razvitiya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh sistem i ego primenenie v informatsionno-analiticheskikh resheniyakh dlya strategicheskogo upravleniya [Dynamic Simulation Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems and its Application in Information-Analytical Solutions for Strategic Management]. Available at: http://strategybusiness.ru/dinamika-soczialno-ekonomicheskix-sistem/dinami- cheskoe-imitaczionnoe-modelirovanie-razvitiya-soczialno-ekonomicheskix-sistem-i-ego-primenenie-v- informaczionno-analiticheskix-resheniyax-dlya-strategicheskogo-upravleniya.html. 5. Mal’kov M. V., Malygina S. N. Seti Petri i modelirovanie [Petri Nets and Modeling]. Available at: http://cyber- leninka.ru/article/n/seti-petri-i-modelirovanie. 6. Peterson J. Teoriya setei Petri i modelirovanie system [Petri Net Theory and the Modelling of Systems]. Moscow: Mir, 1984. 264 p. 7. Poleshchuk N. A. Modelirovanie zatrat v ekonomicheskikh sistemakh s pomoshch’yu setei Petri [Cost Modelling in Economic Systems Using Petri Nets]. Available at: http://www.marketing-mba.ru/article/v4_11/Paliashchuk.pdf. 8. Repin V. V., Eliferov V. G. Protsessnyi podkhod k upravleniyu. Modelirovanie biznes-protsessov [Process Approach to Management. Modeling of Business Processes]. Moscow: Mann, Ivanov i Ferber, 2013. 544 p. 9. Skorodumov P. V. Modelirovanie slozhnykh dinamicheskikh sistem na baze vlozhennykh gibridnykh setei Petri [Modeling of Complex Dynamic Systems on the Basis of Nested Hybrid Petri Nets]. Sistemy upravleniya i in- formatsionnye tekhnologii: nauchno-tekhnicheskii zhurnal [Management Systems and Information Technologies: Research and Technology Journal]. Moskow; Voronezh: Nauchnaya kniga, 2008, pp. 182-187. 10. Skorodumov P. V. Modelirovanie tekhnologicheskikh protsessov v terminakh setei Petri [Modeling of Techno- logical Processes in Terms of Petri Nets]. Nauchnye aspekty innovatsionnykh issledovanii: materialy I Mezhdunar. nauch.-prakt. konf. [Scientific Aspects of Innovation Research: Materials of the First International Research- to-Practice Conference]. Samara: OOO “Insoma-press”, 2013, pp. 30-34. 11. Chernyshova N.N. Imitatsionnoe modelirovanie biznes-protsessov: ucheb.-metod. posobie [Simulation Modeling of Business Processes: Study Guide]. Nizhnii Novgorod: NGU im. Lobachevskogo, 2010. 28 p.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 259 FROM THE EDITOR’S MAILBOX

Letter from the Library of Congress, the USA

Germanic and Slavic Division Russia Section 101 Independence Ave., SE Washington, D.C. 20540-4243

Dr. V.A. Ilyin Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories, Russian Academy of Sciences 56-A, Gorkogo Str., Vologda, Russia, 160014

July 22, 2014

Dear Dr. Ilyin,

I am writing on behalf of the Librarian of Congress, Dr. James Billington, to thank you for your generous offer to send the English edition of your Journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast” to the Library. We are subscribing to the Russian edition since 2012 through our vendor, and we would be pleased for you to send the English journal. It would be a valuable addition for our readers who do not know Russian. Thanks also for sending links to the journal’s electronic version. We appreciate your efforts to enrich our collections in this time of shrinking budgets.

Sincerely, Kali R. Collins (acting section head)

260 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast Requirements to manuscripts

The proposed articles should contain the results of the studies characterized by novelty and practical orientation. They should be available in the form of presentation for a wide range of readers and meet the scientific focus of the journal (economic and sociological researches). The article should generally include the following aspects: the purpose of research; method and methodology of work, its results and the field of their application; conclusions. The findings may be accompanied by recommendations, suggestions and hypotheses, resulting from the contents of the article. When presenting the results of sociological research in the article, it is necessary to state the following information: methods and methodology; the date, place (territory) and organization which carried out the study; the structure of total population; the type, volume and sampling error; the description of methods of data collection and analysis. This information should be arranged according to one of the following options: in the special section (paragraph) of the article; directly in the text; in the footnote. When creating tables, it is necessary to specify, whether the percentage of persons is calculated out of the number of those who answered the question, or out of the total amount of respondents. References should demonstrate the author’s professional outlook and the quality of the research. Authors are responsible for the selection and authenticity of the facts, quotations, statistical and sociological data, proper names, place names and other information, as well as for ensuring that the article does not contain the data that cannot be liable to open publication. The cost parameters in tables (diagrams) related to different time periods are usually represented in the form of comparable scores. If tables (diagrams) contain comparative data on some territories, kinds of economic activities, etc., they should be presented in rank order, indicating the period of ranking. The volume of articles should be no more than 40 000 printed characters (1 author list), including spaces and footnotes, for doctorates and PhDs (including the co-authors having no degree). It should contain no more than 20 000 printed characters (0.5 AL) for the rest of the authors. Exceptions are possible only in terms of a preliminary agreement with the editorial board. The author should send the text of the article and supporting information in printed form by mail (1 copy on one side of the sheet) and identical materials by e-mail. The printed copy must be signed by the author(s). The text of the article is sent in MS Word format, in accordance with the following parameters: headset Times Roman, font size – 14-point type, line spacing – 1.5, footnotes in Arabic numerals are placed at the end of the text in the order mentioned in the text. Graphs and charts for an electronic version of the articles are performed in MS Excel. They should be done in a separate file, which must contain not only the graphics, but initial data (tables). Flowcharts are drawn in MS Word or MS Visio. The article should be assigned the UDC index (it is located above the title of the article). The article should be accompanied by the abstract (600-700 printed characters; the summary is supposed to contain the following aspects: statement of problem, research techniques and information resources, characteristic of basic research results, the ways of problem solving), key words in the English and Russian languages, references. The works in references are arranged in alphabetical order, firstly in the Russian language, then – in English (other languages – in Latin). When the author makes reference to the work, it is necessary to give its number in square brackets. Information about authors is attached to the article in a separate file. It should contain the title of the article (in Russian and English), surname, name and patronymic (in full), academic degree, academic rank,

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 261 full name and address of the organization – the place of employment, work status, telephone and fax numbers, e-mail address and mailing address for correspondence. The electronic version of the article should include author’s color photo (print size – 4x6 cm; file type – TIF (preferred) or JPEG; photo format – 300 dpi). In accordance with the requirements of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation the authors and the editorial board of the journal should conclude a License agreement enclosed by the Product acceptance and conveyance certificate. These documents are drawn up on the form below and signed by all authors of the article. They should be submitted to the editorial board along with the text of the article. A copy of the agreement signed by the editorial board will be sent to the authors by mail with a copy of the author’s journal issue. Manuscripts should be sent by mail to: 56A Gorky Street, Vologda, 160014, Russia, ISEDT RAS, the editorial board, marked “for publication in the Journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast”, and to e-mail: [email protected]. Fax (8172) 59-78-02. Tel. (8172) 59-78-31. It is obligatory to refer to the journal at full or partial reprint of manuscripts in another publication. All manuscripts are liable to reviewing. If a reviewer has any questions, the article is returned for revision. Delivery date of the article is the date when the editorial board receives the final version of the article. The editors reserve the right to make editorial changes and cuts that do not distort the meaning of the article. Since 2010, the journal has opened a rubric “Young researchers”, which publishes manuscripts of postgraduate students. The article should be written without co-authors. It must be certified by a research supervisor and recommended by the research organization to which the postgraduate student is assigned. Attention! In cases these requirements are not met the article is not considered by the editorial board. Electronic version of the journal is available at: http://esc.vscc.ac.ru.

262 4 (34) 2014 Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION Dear Colleagues, we offer you to subscribe to the journal “Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast”.

The founder: Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of Russian Academy of Science (ISEDT RAS) (previously – VSCC CEMI RAS). The Journal publishes the researching results on the performance evaluation of regional socio-economic systems of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia, economy sectors of the District’s subjects and municipalities in the following directions: – Development strategy; – Regional economy; – Social development; – Foreign economic relations; – Information economy; – Problem of expanded reproduction, etc. The Journal is included in the database of Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI). According to the decision of the Presidium of the Higher Attestation Commission of the Russian Education and Science Ministry № 6/6 of February 19, 2010 the Journal is included in the List of leading scientific publications, recommended for publishing the results of doctorial and candidate theses. The main purpose of the Journal is to provide the scientific community and practitioners with the possibility to familiarize themselves with the results of research in the sphere of scientific support for the regional economy, to participate in discussions on these issues. The Editorial Board which carries out an independent examination of scientific papers consists of the leading scientists from several regions of Russia. The Journal is published 6 times a year. The Journal is included in the inter-regional part of the Russian press catalogue “Press of Russia”: Subscription Index 41319. Catalogue price of one issue of the journal is 250 rubles (excluding delivery). The subscription form is annexed.

Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast 4 (34) 2014 263 Editor A.A. Sokolova Make-up page T.V. Popova Translators and Proof-readers A.A. Sokolova, O.L. Gagarina

Passed for printing September 11, 2014. Date of publication September 16, 2014. 1 . Format 60×84 /8 Digital recording. Con. pr. sheets 30.8. Number of 500 copies. Order No. 250. Price is open.

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