Early warning program F A S T Update Madagascar Semi-annual Risk Assessment December 2004 to May 2005 T S A F © swisspeace FAST Update Madagascar | December 2004 to May 2005 | Page 2 Contents Relative Government and Non-Government Conflictive Actions 3 International Cooperation and Conflict 5 Appendix: Description of indicators used 7 The FAST International Early Warning Program 8 FAST Update Subscription: www.swisspeace.org/fast/subscription_form.asp Contact FAST International: Country Expert: Phone: +27 12 346 9545 Richard Marcus Fax: +27 12 460 0997 mailto:
[email protected] www.swisspeace.org/fast © swisspeace FAST Update Madagascar | December 2004 to May 2005 | Page 3 Relative Government and Non-Government Conflictive Actions Average number of reported events per month: 109 Indicator description: see appendix Risk Assessment: • In the first half of 2005 the economy continued to be characterized by the contradictions between the economic success of the liberalisation program touted by the government and the growing unease in the population at falling living standards. The rise in prices of staple goods has given new impetus to civic groups that have become disenchanted with Ravalomanana and have given new fodder to the political opposition. As a result, non- government conflict has outpaced government conflict. According to the International Monetary Fund, 2004 closed with a robust 5.7 percent real Gross Domestic Product growth rate, led by construction, export processing zones, and tourism, a sign that this may be fairly durable growth. New international markets continued to flourish, international support for President Marc Ravalomanana has continued to soar, and there have, arguably, never been more opportunities for new growth in Madagascar.