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AUTHOR Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center For DOCUMENT RESUME ED 237.736 CE 037 747 AUTHOR Taylor, Robert E., Ed.; And Others TITLE Responsiveness of Training Institutions' to Changing Labor Market Demands. INSTITUTION Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center for Research in' Vocational Education. SPONS AGENCY National Inst. of Education (ED), Washington,. DC. PUB DATE 83 GRANT NIE-G-81-0022 40,4, NOTE 335p.; Proceedings of the Policy Forum on Employability Development (2nd, Washington, DC, September 1982). For a related document, see ED 222 640. Some tables 'are marginally legible. PUB TYPE Collected Works - Conference Proceedings (021)-- Vie1points (120) -- Reports - Descriptive (141). EDRS PRICE MF01/PC14 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Change; *Cooperative Programs; *Coordination; Demand Occupations; Employment Programs; *Employment. Projections; Foreign Countries; Government Role; Information Utilization; Job Training; Labor. Force Development; *Labor Needs; Local Government; Postsecondary Education; *Responses; Secondary Education; State Government; *Vocational Education ABSTRACT These 19 papers from the second annual Policy Forum. on Employability Development explore the responsiveness of various educational and training institutions to changing labor market demands. The first three papers provide an overview of the forum. They summarize the proceedings and policy considerations and address how vocational education amd training can be responsive to change., The next four papers focus on occupational projections. Specific topics are accuracy and utilization of occupational forecasts, labor market thodels for tollege-trained workers, and reactor camments on occupational forecasting and projections. The third section on early warning systems contains four papers that address preparation of staffing requirements data at the micro- or plant level, a descriptive survey of the employment effects of the defense budget, and reactor comments on these two presentations. Seven papers deal with state and local adjustments to changing labor market demands, specifically the states' human resource development role, local coordination and linking efforts among employment' and training programs, vocational education's response to skilled industrial worker -shortages, factors influencing vocational education program decisions, and two papers with reactor comments. A paper on the experiences of other countries in responding to changes in the demand for skilled workers and reactor comments conclude the volume. (YLB) *********************************************************************** * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. *********************************************************************** M ti RESPONSIVENESS OF TRAINING 14\ INSTITUTIONS TO CHANGING " LABORA MARKET DEMANDS Robert E. Taylor Howard Rosen Frank C. Pratzner Editors U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NATIONAL INCTITUTE OF EDUCATION ED CATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) This document hasbeenreproduced as received from the person or organization originating it. El Minor changes have been made to improve reproductiOn quality. Points of vietv or opinions stated in this docu ment do not necessarily represent official NIE , position or policy. ..4" The National Center for Research in Vocational Education The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio 1983 THE NATION; L CENTER MISSION STATEMENT The National Center for Research in \ideational Education's mission is to increase the ability of diverse agencies, institutions, and organizations to solve educational problems 'relating to individual career planning, preparation, and progression. The National. Center fulfills its mission by: Generating knowledge through research Developing educational programs and products Evaluating individual program needs and outcomes Providing information for national planning and policy Installing educational programs and products Operating information systems and services C\onducting leadership development and training programs A Final Report on a Project Conducted Under Grant No. NIE-G-81-002a. The material in this publication was prepared pursuant to a grantwith the National Institute of Education, U.S. Department of Education. Grantees undertaking such projects under government sponsorship are encouraged to express freely their judgment in professional and technical matters. The views contained in this publication represent the views of the authors and are not necessarily those of the National Institute of Education or of the National Center for Research in Vocational Education. \U.S. Department of Education .\ National Institute of Education 11 CONTENTS PREFACE' CONTRIBUTORS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS OVERVIEW 1.Intioduction: Responsiveness of Training Institutions to Changing Labor Makket Demands Robert E. Taylor, Howard Rosen, Frank C. Pratzner 2.. Summary of Policy Considerations 11 Robert E. Taylor, Howard Rosen, Frank C. Pratzner 3.. Responding.to Change: Occupational Preparation in the.1980s Paul E. Barton OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTIONS 4,The Accuracy and Utilization of Occupational Forecasts 39' Harold Goldstein Occupational Foiecasting: Reactor Comments, .....71 Herrington J. Bryce 6.Forecasting the Changing Market, for College-trained Workers 79 Richard B. Freeman and John A. Hansen Occupational Projections: Reactor Comments 101:. Sar A. Levitan EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 8. An Early Warning System to Improve the'Responsiveness of Vocational Education and Training Ihstitutions to Changesin. the Local Labor Market Demand forWorkers. 111 Marc A.,Ma tland . An Early Warning System: Reactor Comments 127 Pat Choate 10.The Employment Effects of the Defense Budget: ADescriptive Survey 131 Charles Dale 11.Employment Effects of the Defense Budget: Reactor Comments 167 Richard V.L. Cooper 0 STATE AND LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CHANGING LABOR MARKET DEMANDS 12.The States' Human Resouice Development' Role in Respon§eto, Potential Employment Growth and Emerging Occupation§. 173 David W. Stevens 13.An Overview of Local. Coordination and Linking Efforts among Employment and Training.Programs 197 V. Lane Rawlins 121. State and Local Adjustments: Reactor Comments 229 Jack A. Meyer 15.Vocational Education's Response to Skilled, IndustrialWorker Shortages 235 Harold Starr 16.Factors Influencing Vocational Education Program Decisions '267 Stephen J. Franchak 17.Vocational Education's Responsiveness: Reactor CoMments. 297 Ronald E. Kutscher iv EXPERIENCE OF OTHER COUNTRIES 18.Responding to Changes in the Demand for Skilled Workers: The Experience of Other Countries 305 Beatrice G. Reubens 19. The Experience of Other Countries: Reactor Comments 329 C. Michael Aho LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 335 Preface What kind of information is needed by education.and training institutions, as well as by policymakers, that will enable them to adjust . to new demands for skilled workers? What coordination among the different training systems in the United States and the world of work facilitates the movement of individuals from trainingto employment? These two questions were the prirnary and subsidiary focuses of the second annual Policy Forum on Employability DeVeloPment. Held in September 1982 by the National Center for Research in Vocational Education in Washington, DC, the Forum was sponsored by the National Institute of Education. The first Policy Forum, given by the National Center in October 1981 was a comprehensive examination of the contributions of various training institutions in the United States that prepare workers for the world of work. The resulting papers from' that Forum were published in the volume, Job Training for Youth. - " . In this new volume, the papers from the second Policy Forum have been compiled, resulting in an exploration of theresponsiveness of various eti;ocation and training institutions to changing labor market demands. This information will be of interest to policymakers and reiearchers who participate in the making of more infornieddecisions about the training of a skilled labor force. The National Center hasengaged in organizing theForums and producing the resulting papers in order to, bring to the attention'of policymakers problems and issues affecting training programs.This publication contributesto'the continuation of thoughtful dialogue and debate concerning the need for adjusting Our training institutions to 'changes in the demand for workers. We hope to continue in our contributions to that dialogue through this and subsequent annual Policy Forums and resulting publications. As editors, we have taken minor liberties in preparing the materials for this volume. In particular, in chapter 2 we have. attempted to summarize our sense of the policy considerations and recommendations growing out of the Forum. We take full responsibility for these interpretations and conclusions. A great many people contributed to the second annual Policy Forum and to preparation,of thiS volume. We wish especially to express our appreciation to the National Institute of Education for its support of the research program on employability development of which this Forum is a part. We wish to thank Beatrice Reubens, Charles Knapp, and Kevin Hollenbeck for their review and comments on early drafts of chapters 1 and 2. We alko wish to thank Janet Kiplinger and her staff for editorial assistance, and Vera Mueller for her help in conducting the Forum and preparing the final manuscript. Columbia, Ohio Robert E. Taylor November 1982 HoWard Rosen Frank C. Pratzner viii Contributors Howard Rosen is a Consultant to the National Center, for
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