EURACTIV SPECIAL 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

source Giannis Papanikos/ Shutterstock

Visegrád and migration: VISEGRÁD AND MIGRATION: Few prospects for a change in position 1 FEW PROSPECTS FOR A CHANGE IN POSITION

Visegrád on Trump: With Slovakia handing over the EU “player” with substantial convergence in Anxious but optimistic 3 presidency to Malta and agreement the debate. on a new EU asylum system out of si- Apart from unanimous support for the ght, the Visegrád Group remains in “flexible”, later “effective solidarity”, it ad- Future EU: opposed to compulsory refugee relo- Does Visegrád have a plan? 6 vocates cooperation with third countries cation. via a Migration Compacts, copying agree- Authors: Aneta Zachová, Edit Zgut, Krzysztof ment with Turkey and protection of EU The V4 will never agree on Russia 8 Kokoszczynski and Zuzana Gabrizova external borders, where they are ready to “The effective application of the principles increase commitments. of responsibility and solidarity remains a As a matter of shared priority, the Viseg- V4 energy security: shared objective,” read the conclusions of rád Group calls for a return to the full ap- The land of nuclear and coal 11 the December European Council on the plication of the Schengen deal. internal aspects of migration. In this cooperative article, we take a clos- The Slovak Presidency has framed this er look at where the debate and situation wording as a “success”, claiming it means stands in every respective country of the that the “effective solidarity” concept Visegrád Group. that would allow countries to choose how they want to contribute to common SLOVAKIA: THE PRESIDENCY EFFECT efforts in the migration crisis thus avoid At the beginning of 2016, Slovak Prime actually taking in refugees, and it has Minister Robert Fico infamously stated gained overall support. that he wants to “prevent a creation of a The situation is more complex, however. coherent Muslim community in the coun- Slovakia has handed over the large migra- try”. It was at the height of the election tion dossier to the Maltese Presidency in campaign, where the migration crisis took the Council largely untouched. National centre stage in a country with virtually no positions differ even among the Western migrants and refugees. Polls between countries. spring and autumn 2015 showed a sharp With the support of: rise in people considering migration one Looming elections in the Netherlands, of the most important issues the country France and Germany will hardly make and the EU is facing. finding a compromise easier this year. The Visegrád Group (V4) – Slovakia, Since the emergence of the independent Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary – state in 1993, and after it joined the EU has emerged in the debate as a regional (Continued on next page) 2 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 in 2004, Slovakia adopted and maintained At the end of 2015, Slovakia had voluntarily lum in the Czech Republic. Syrians and Af- very strict and dissuasive migration and resettled 149 Iraqi Christians, who obtained ghans represent a minimum of them. Accord- asylum policies, opposing any proposal for asylum on humanitarian grounds. “To this ing to Zuzana Schreiberová from non-profit further harmonisation and burden sharing day only 89 stayed. The rest have returned organisation Multicultural Centre Prague it is initiatives at EU level. to Iraq citing homesickness,” says Petra Ach- because of the bad conditions in detention Despite its history as a multiethnic environ- bergerová, director of the migration and in- facilities where migrants are placed. ment and having considerable Hungarian tegration department at the Migration office. “The vast majority of them choose to contin- and Roma minorities, the country adheres For the time being, Slovakia has pledged to ue to other countries, mainly to Germany,” to a platform of “cultural homogeneity”, sup- take in 100 refugees from Greece on a vol- explained Schreiberová. The Czech Republic ported by a political consensus on the matter. untary basis and is offering 500 scholarships accepts a limited number of refugees. Every After the rise of migration as a central EU is- to Syrian teenagers. It also helped Austria,by third applicant for asylum is successful. temporarily housing more than 1000 refu- sue, it found a way towards domestic polit- HUNGARY: HOTSPOTS OUTSIDE gees applying for asylum in Austria. ical discourse. The government dominated SCHENGEN by centre-left party SMER-SD has strongly NGOs and volunteers showed a high level of The Hungarian Fidesz-KDNP government framed the problem in the narrative of se- engagement during the height of the refu- has overcome a period of falling popularity curity issue and problem of cultural incom- gee crisis, helping and organising help for by exploiting the refugee crisis. patibility of largely Muslim migrants. This refugees on their way via the Balkan route. was strengthened in the wake of the gen- Hungary was the first to erect a fence to eral elections. Robert Fico has won his third CZECH REPUBLIC: COMMITMENT TO keep migrants away from the country’s mandate, although not without loss of abso- BORDERS borders and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán re- lute control. Migration has also become one of the dom- jected the quota mechanism from the very beginning, advocating the protection of the Despite being clearly pro-European, the inant political topics of the past two years. EU’s external borders instead. government did not shy away from speak- Public debate on migration radicalised and a ing of “EU dictates” once the compulsory new anti-immigration movement has been To many, the Fidesz-KDNP government’s relocation scheme was on the table. It filed established, which includes the Party of Di- policies induced xenophobic attitudes a lawsuit against the Council decision on a rect Democracy, the sixth most successful in society by its constant anti-immigrant temporary relocation scheme, seconded by party in the regional elections in 2016. campaigns and the criminalisation of asy- Hungary. Despite that, the real policy maintains the lum-seekers. The rhetoric was toned down during the same direction, as it was before the start of For example, Orbán claimed that all ter- Slovak Presidency. The protection of the the crisis, says Miroslav Mareš, a professor of rorists are migrants. The question is only EU’s external borders remained a central political science at Masaryk University. Gov- when they arrived in Europe. According to speaking point. “This level of porousness ernment and activist activities have intensi- research Institute Tárki, xenophobia reached of the borders is potentially deadly for the fied, such as Czech police deployments to an all-time high in Hungary last year (58%). prestige of the EU, its administrative, politi- Greece, and NGOs helping refugees on their The referendum in October 2016 was invalid cal and social absorption capacity,” Ambas- journey through Europe. but 98% of the 3.3 million people casting a sador-at-Large for Migration Igor Slobod- According to the Czech Interior Ministry, the vote were against refugee relocation quo- ník said to EURACTIV.sk. current European Asylum System does not tas. The Slovak proposal for effective solidarity work well. The ministry is also critical of the “The Hungarian government’s response to has clearly failed to get every member state proposed revision. the refugee crisis was motivated by domes- on board. Nevertheless, diplomats say it “Even if we manage to enforce the proposed tic political goals, mainly its desire to cement managed to calm the debate. system, it will not lead to a significant reduc- its own power through artificially sustaining “You will never hear me praise this concept tion in the influx of migrants,” said ministry an air of anxiety,” said former Foreign Minis- as ideal. The name ‘flexible’ solidarity is un- spokeswoman Hana Malá. The revision of the ter Géza Jeszenszky, who believes it was im- fortunate, but the system, based on one Dublin Regulation containing redistribution possible to refer to the invalid referendum as manifestation of solidarity, is unsustainable,” of migrants is the most problematic part. a success in Brussels. the government plenipotentiary of the Slo- The Ministry of Interior claims that redistri- In contrast, Sándor Gallai, director of research vak EU Council Presidency Ivan Korčok said. bution should not be obligatory. The Czech at the Institute of Migration Research, says He argues there can be no change in the Republic supports the Slovak concept of “ef- that the government’s measures are found- Dublin rule, as it would constitute a pull fac- fective solidarity”, but it would offer greater ed on value-based political motivations. tor. “This is not how Schengen can survive,” involvement in the activities of the Europe- “The Orbán government is supporting the he added. an Asylum Agency and the European Board idea of an ethnically homogenous society Far-reaching harmonisation of asylum pro- and Coastal Guards instead of accepting re- that matches the opinion of Hungarians; cedures as envisaged in the draft proposals distributed refugees. it wants to solve demographic problems on the European Commission seem to be a NGO positions differ from those of the through family policy instead of immigra- no-go for Slovakia as well. Czech government. One example is an alter- tion,” said Gallai. Any reform of the Common Asylum System native concept by Martin Rozumek from the The Hungarian government sees the solu- must not bypass it, claims Zuzan Števulová Organization for Aid to Refugees and Zuza- tion for the migration crisis in the establish- of the NGO League for Human Rights. “Also, na Števulová from the League for Human ment of hotspots outside of the Schengen if we really want to build a common asylum Rights in Bratislava. The authors say that V4 Zone and not in the distribution of asy- system, there is no place for a transition countries should propose a European asy- lum-seekers between member states. lum system based on a harmonised asylum country in it,” she says. At the same time, “No one can be forced to settle someone in procedure and successful applicants would Števulová says that it would irresponsible if their country, aid must be taken to where the concerns of countries such as those in gain an EU-wide stay permit. Visegrád Group are taken lightly. Around 1,500 people per year apply for asy- (Continued on next page) 3 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 the problem is, meaning that asylum appli- ment. Although civil society organisations The minister said that Poland would do its cations must be decided outside of the EU,” (CSOs) are increasingly restricted from ac- part through helping countries of origin. said Zalán Zsolt Csenger, the Fidesz-affiliat- cessing refugees, CSOs established in 2015 Nevertheless, actions in that respect also ed vice president of the Hungarian National (Migszol, Segítsünk együtt a menekülteknek seem to be lacking, according to Jacek Białas Assembly’s foreign policy committee. [Help the refugees together]) continue to from the Helsinki Foundation for Human The Hungarian government’s view is that acts help those in need through non-financial Rights. He describes the government’s ap- of solidarity cannot be restricted to the relo- donations and food, while religious organisa- proach as “weak, negative, reluctant or even cation mechanism and it considers it down- tions are also increasingly active in this area. hostile”. right unacceptable that those unwilling to As the government gradually disengaged The Polish approach to migration cannot participate in it would be forced to pay a fine. from fulfilling its role, these civilians practi- be fully understood without understanding the current government of Poland and dis- Most asylum-seekers only pass through the cally took over its duties. course of conflict. It presents the world to country. “Last year, around 30,000 asylum POLAND: HELPING COUNTRIES OF its electorate by dividing it between ‘us’ and applications were filed, by the end of last ORIGIN ‘them’: ‘us’ and ‘the opposition’, ‘us’ and the November, 398 people had been granted Poland is one of the main opponents of the ‘liberal elites’. refugee status or subsidiary protection,” redistribution of refugees among the mem- In such a context, refugees make for a very said Márta Pardavi, the co-president of the ber states and to date it has not taken in a useful and convenient ‘them’ to be present- Hungarian Helsinki Committee. single refugee from Greece or Italy. ed as a threat. Currently, there are about 500 individuals in While the issue does not take the centre Unfortunately, such language helps encour- refugee reception centres, part of them in stage in such a way as in Hungary, for in- age violence. Sylwia Spurek, the deputy heated conditions but those accommodat- stance, the Polish government time and time Ombudsman, told EURACTIV.pl that without ed in Körmend have to survive the winter in again has voiced its opposition to actually a strong signal from the government oppos- military tents. being made to take some of asylum-seekers ing it, the mood of xenophobia would only Márta Pardavi claims that by dissolving the into the country. grow in Poland. refugee centres in Debrecen and Bicske, the Interior Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has said She stressed that since the last election, Om- government knowingly reformed the sys- that he thinks the Polish approach is a “sensi- budsman Adam Bodnar asked for a complex tem to encourage asylum-seekers to leave ble option”and that the redistribution mech- action plan for admitting refugees to Po- the country as fast as possible. anism is “a way to attract more migrants” land, which would include a mechanism for Nevertheless, there is one positive develop- rather than a solution. creating a Willkommenskultur for refugees. n

THE V4 WILL NEVER AGREE ON RUSSIA

Depending on which country you ask, in rent moment, times of uncertainty. Donald first decisions did not do anything to alleviate Central Europe, the new US government Trump, a newcomer to the world of politics, is the fears of America’s allies and partners. is either a source of unease in matters taking power on a wave of populism. His rise concerning Moscow or, in the case of to the presidency was unexpected and his (Continued on next page) Hungary, newfound confidence. Authors: Edit Zgut, Jakub Šimkovič, Krzysztof Kokoszczynski and Lukáš Hendrych The EU and the US have been close part- ners for the many years past. Despite their differences, they share similar values and co- operate on various policy issues. They are a driving force behind various pro-democracy initiatives and they cooperate closely on se- curity matters, including Syria and Ukraine. Nevertheless, Brussels and Washington have also been at odds many times. Recent years have witnessed a number of policy issues in which the EU and the US could not find a common ground – or in which finding a common position has required tiresome back-and-forth: privacy and data protection, a reduction in CO2 emissions or GMOs. The list is long. The ties were not made stronger through the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Part- nership negotiations. Following years of talks, the deal has not been completed and, as everything seems to indicate, will not be made in the future. source Joe Seer/ Shutterstock The coming years look like, at least at the cur- 4 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

Yet the Visegrad Group (V4) of countries may about further supporting the American fight “In my view, Trump´s position and stance is be a little calmer than their West European against terrorism and the IS, which may re- based on the idea that the European Union allies. At least in the short term, they are not quire some difficult decisions from Poland, is more a competitor than a partner. He sees likely to be harmed by Trump’s decisions – such as becoming more engaged in Syria,” the EU in the same way as he sees China. He and while they may not profit significantly he said. perceives these countries as competitors,” from the change of government across the Nevertheless, Tomasz Smura, Research he told EURACTIV Czech Republic. Atlantic, a lack of losses is its own profit. Fellow at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, “He will focus on countries where we can POLAND: WARY BUT OPTIMISTIC is cautiously optimistic about the future. see clear anti-European stances within pol- He stresses that “for the short term, six to iticians and societies. That means countries Poland and the US enjoy a historically strong twelve months, nothing much will change like the Czech Republic and V4 in general. It relationship, the perennial visa issue not- with respect to the security dimension of is also the reason why he stresses that An- withstanding. Poland has been the most the Polish-American relationship”. He not- gela Merkel´s migration policy is so bad,” he pro-American country in the V4, often re- ed that “the president is not the emperor, added. garded as the strongest supporter of the US so even if he wants to introduce any signif- and the American policy in the Central and Both politicians could find a common icant changes, they will require a consent Eastern Europe. This historical relationship ground in this field. Last year, the Czech of the Congress, so it will all depend on his is not directly under threat under the new President suggested that a national referen- position there”. administration, but Poland is worried about dum on membership in the EU and also in being marginalised under Trump. The Polish Foreign Ministry is even more op- NATO would not be a bad idea. Michał Baranowski, Director of the Warsaw timistic. “We are convinced that the impor- However, Vít Dostál, the Director of research Office of the German Marshall Fund of the tant Polish-American bilateral relationship Centre at Association for International Affairs US, sees the focus of the Trump Adminis- will continue to grow and be developed has a different point of view. “The question tration on bilateral relations as a chance for under the Donald Trump’s administration”,” is how the United States will perceive Czech strengthening the Polish-American bond. says Joanna Wajda, the spokesperson for the orientation to the east, mainly to China. For Nevertheless, he is wary of the “Trump’s un- ministry. She added, “this opinion has been Trump, China is the biggest opponent in the predictability and dynamic approach.” confirmed after the [Polish Foreign] Minis- international system. And Chinese effort to ter Witold Waszczykowski’s recent meeting gain influence in Middle Europe could be For Poland, in terms of her relationship with with Henry Kissinger, the Foreign Policy Ad- one of the things which the new American the US, the security issue takes priority. The viser, and Michael Flynn, the National Secu- administration will focus on,” he thinks. shadow of Russia has been growing over the rity Adviser”. last decade and Warsaw is anxious about Chinese investments are an important topic getting more and better security guaran- Despite these anxieties, the economic side of President Zeman and the visit of the Chi- tees from Washington, as Russia is consid- of the relationship is expected to grow nese President in the Czech Republic was, ered a real threat to the continued existence strong during the coming years. The trade in his opinion, a great success. As far as this of the Polish state. exchange between the two countries topic is concerned, Trump and Zeman could reached €9 billon in 2015 and has been rather argue. Poland has been quite successful in this growing ever since. respect in recent years: It bought its new Concerning the Visegrad Group as a whole, fighter jet, the F-16, from the US, in a deal Tony Housh, Chairman of the American the victory of Donald Trump is likely to be that included a significant offset package, Chamber of Commerce in Poland, does not bad news. Tomáš Prouza, the State Secretary increasing American investment even fur- expect any significant changes in terms of for European Affairs of the Czech Republic, ther. During the 2016 NATO summit in War- economic ties between Poland and the US. shares this view. “According to some of saw, the US committed to deploying troops He said that “the strong current relationship Trump´s statements, it seems that his victory in Poland as a part of the constant rotation [between Poland and the US] will continue, is rather bad for Central and Eastern Europe. in Central and Eastern Europe, the so-called without any disruption”, despite a certain At this time, Trump is rather a danger for our Eastern Flank. anxiety towards the new administration. defence and economy,” he warns. And here is the main reason behind the Pol- Poland has just welcomed American forces In his opinion, the reaction of these coun- ish anxiety over Trump. While Poland did not arriving in the country. Warsaw hopes that tries will be very important. “This situation play a significant role in his campaign, the the historical ties, improving trade and the brings two main tasks for the Czech Repub- new president’s comments on Russia and US military presence will manage to keep lic. First, we have to focus on supporting the Vladimir Putin, as well as his stated aim of the country safe for the coming years. internal Single Market and a free trade with decreasing American military engagement third countries. Second, we must strength- TRUMP WILL FOCUS ON COUNTRIES in NATO and in Europe has been heard in en our defence cooperation within Europe LIKE THE CZECH REPUBLIC Warsaw. Poland is unsure whether or not including the future creation of European President Trump will act on his campaign President of the Czech Republic Miloš armed forces. We shouldn´t be dependent promises and, if so, what shape his actions Zeman was one of the few European politi- on the USA in the field of defence anymore,” will take. cians who openly supported Donald Trump. he stresses. For Baranowski, the best way forward would It is probably the reason why he has already Recently, the strengthening of our security be to focus less on ideas and more on the been invited to the White House. While it is and defence cooperation has been quite mutual benefits of supporting Poland. usually better if politicians talk to each other a big topic in the EU. And the V4 countries “Trump has a more utilitarian approach to and have good relations, many in the Czech should have a responsible approach. “The their allies than his predecessors. Poland Republic ask the question is what this rela- Czech Republic must increase its defence should then focus on showing him what tionship is going to mean for the country. spending because the new American Ad- benefits the continued support of Poland Jan Kovář, researcher at the Institute of Inter- ministration will talk only to the countries will bring to the US: that the Eastern Flank national Relations in Prague says that one of that fulfil their obligations,” Radko Hok- is also important for the American securi- the Trump´s goals is to destabilise the Euro- ovský, the executive director of the Prague- ty, for example. We may also have to think pean Union. (Continued on next page) 5 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 based think-tank European Values, says. creased defence budget with Trump claim- long-term nature of bilateral relations: num- SLOVAKIA´S CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM ing NATO was “obsolete”. ber one is how the Russian-American rela- tionship develops, which everyone depends Early Slovak reactions to the election of Don- Slovakia´s pledge to raise military spending up to 1.6 % in 2020 goes well before the on in the region. The second is who will be ald Trump were polite, slightly optimistic, entrusted with Eastern European affairs in but mostly cautious. Prime Minister Robert recent heated debate on military expendi- tures in Europe. At the 2016 Warsaw Summit, the State Department. Ugrósdy said one can Fico said not to assume that Trump´s presi- only speculate what will happen until this dency would necessarily be a bad thing and the Slovak delegation seconded the motion to reinforce NATO´s Eastern Flank. becomes clear. The role of Hungary is tradi- hailed the prospect of “balance of powers tionally perceived in the context of Central Speaking to EURACTIV Slovakia, defence between the superpowers”, referring to US and Easter Europe in Washington, and if the ministry spokesperson Danka Capáková and Russia. What is more, he added that in Trump-Putin relationship deteriorates Hun- highlighted sending 152 soldiers to the Bal- some areas the EU “has acted a delivery boy gary could again face criticism as an under- tic training mission of the Visegrad Group for the US” and believes that if the US lifts paying NATO member and one of the most countries. sanctions against the Russia, the EU would important regional allies of the Kremlin. Ac- do the same, which he would prefer, calling Focusing on the Trump´s inauguration cording to Márton Ugrósdy, a researcher at them “nonsense”. speech, Dušan Fischer of the Slovak Foreign the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Fico acknowledged however that Europe Policy Association (SFPA) noticed no positive the change of guard in Washington will pro- will “need to react” if Trump goes along reference to Europe whatsoever. “For the vide the Hungarian government with half a with his pledge to decrease the military en- next 4 years, Trump might not even come year when it can achieve its goals under less gagement in Europe even further. President across relations with the V4,” Fischer said. American scrutiny. Andrej Kiska reacted in a manner that was HUNGARY EXPECTS MORE FREEDOM Donald Trump often voiced the opinion nowhere near as jubilant as the one of his that NATO is obsolete and it should operate Czech counterpart but wished Trump a suc- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s by dividing the share of the burden more cessful term. Kiska believes that NATO will vision of the Donald Trump-led world con- equally not only in his campaign but after represent the same values no matter who sists of the end of the era of multilateral his election as well. Thus, the underpaying sits in the White House. agreements and improving US-Hungarian relations. The Hungarian prime minister was member states must increase their defence In terms of transatlantic relations, Slovak the first mainstream leader to throw his sup- spending to 2% of the GDP as soon as possi- public perception differs from their V4 port behind the Republican candidate. The ble, which Hungary promised to achieve by neighbours. The research done by the In- Hungarian premier, looking to settle into a 2026. “Based on the statements of the Amer- stitute for Public Affairs (IVO) released in “multipolar world order”, argued against ican president it is not out of the question May 2016 showed that the level of distrust the election of Hillary Clinton from the very that the Hungarian government will have to towards the US is the highest in the region. beginning because the foreign policy of the rethink this commitment in order to bring Only 27 % of respondents said they trust Democrats is “deadly for Hungary”, while the deadline forward,” said the Fidesz-affil- America. that of the Republicans offers the country a iated chairman of the National Assembly’s Andrej Matišák, a Slovak journalist covering chance to live. He praised Trump for his an- foreign policy committee, Zsolt Németh. foreign affairs for Pravda, says that Slovakia ti-immigration views, his belief in strength- Europe is currently playing the waiting game and the US are members of same organ- ening secret services and putting an end to with regards to the effects of the Trump isations, and are connected by trade and the exporting of American democracy. Administration on the stability of transat- shared values. That “may sound too little for “Viktor Orbán disliked the Obama Admin- lantic relations, but the majority of Hungar- some, but even that is now at stake”, he told istration mainly because it constantly re- ian experts believe it is unrealistic that USA EURACTIV Slovakia. minded him of the importance of adhering would back out of NATO’s solidarity clause. To develop good relations, Matišák sug- to democratic values, while the Hungarian Nevertheless, the continent should estab- gests frequent contacts with the new U.S. government expects the complete opposite lish a more effective defence union, which administration as well as other centres of from the Trump Administration”, said former became clear after the Brexit referendum. power, for example, Congress, businesses Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Balázs. Ac- Németh believes that the agreement of EU and NGOs. “We need to be clear about our cording to the former EU Commissioner, ide- leaders on deepening defence and military expectations. I´m not entirely sure that´s the ological similarities and a less interventionist industry cooperation to establish a struc- case,” he added. American foreign policy could offer proto- ture working independently of NATO to be US-Slovak trade is steadily growing stronger. col-level advantages to Orbán in the form of an important step. “Although NATO handing According to AmCham Slovakia, in 2015, it an invitation to the White House, although over some competences, for example in the amounted to 2.06 billion USD. Policy Officer these factors are unlikely to offer him more Aegean Sea, to Europe would be the proper at the AmCham Michal Krčméry expects space for manoeuvre on the international thing to do, the defence structure of the un- that the positive trend in mutual trade re- stage. A White House less concerned with ion under no circumstance should become lations will indeed continue. “American in- the internal affairs of other states could of- an alternative to NATO,” noted the politician. vestors in Slovakia are relatively stable. We fer more freedom to the Hungarian govern- Even though nothing has been said about don´t expect them to re-evaluate their plans ment domestically – said US expert Tamás deepening defence cooperation being in light of the change in the White House,” Magyarics. The Orbán government has re- aimed at the establishment of a joint army, Krčméry said. “Surely, it is harder to tell how ceived a lot of criticism from Washington the Hungarian prime minister has for quite the political changes will translate into a fur- since its inauguration in 2010 for the media some time urged the establishment of an EU ther influx of more US investment.” law, attacks on civil society and the ero- Army founded on Franco-German coopera- The major outstanding question linked to sion of the system of checks and balances, tion. The message fits well into the “let’s put Trump´s presidency is his (un) willingness to among others, added the associate profes- security first” narrative propagated by the remain involved in European defence. The sor of ELTE University. Hungarian government. However, it is natu- Minister of Defence of the Slovak Republic, Political scientist Márton Ugrósdy believes rally in conflict with the anti-federalist view Peter Gajdoš, shied away from linking the in- two important factors will determine the of Orbán. n 6 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

FUTURE EU: DOES VISEGRÁD HAVE A PLAN?

In the Visegrád Group, there is a desire POLAND: REFORM IS NEEDED needs reform and adaptation, and this need to both strengthen the powers of mem- There is a widespread consensus in Poland has been its feature since the beginning”. ber states, but also defend the Schengen that reforms of the European Union are nec- No concrete reform proposals have materi- area, and the four freedoms. Unsurpri- essary and unavoidable. There are few, if any, alised so far. Given the government’s politi- singly, talk of treaty change is in the air. who contest this view. The problematic part cal disposition, though, it seems reasonable Authors: Adéla Denková, Edit Zgut, Krzysztof is describing what changes are needed, both to expect the strengthening powers of the Kokoszczynski and Zuzana Gabrizova for the improvement of the EU and for im- member states and the intergovernmen- In Valletta, the Visegrád Four, composed of proving the Polish position within the Union. tal aspects of the EU in order to limit the Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and The main question is whether Warsaw push- amount of power transferred to Brussels. Hungary agreed to come up with a common es for opening negotiations for a new treaty Szydło has mentioned that the goal of the contribution to the Rome Declaration. The for the EU. Such an initiative would allow the reform would be ensuring that “the EU document being drafted on behalf of the deepest changes in the structure of the EU strengthens the member states, which we Rome summit at the end of March, marking as a whole, as it could include, in theory at do not see at the moment”, as well as “pro- the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, least, changes to every single aspect of func- tecting [Polish] sovereignty”. intends to outline the future of the EU. tioning of the EU. Nevertheless, “strengthening the sovereign- ty of member states will be harmful for the Polish position in Europe”, stressed Katarzy- na Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, director of the Open Europe Programme at the Stefan Batory Foundation. She explained that Poland is among the EU countries with weaker econ- omies so that decreasing the role of supra- national institutions will necessarily weaken the Polish bargaining strength. While it is still early to discuss the exact shape of reforms, Smolar believes it likely that the current rise of Eurosceptic forces will lead to a deepened integration based on a voluntary model, concentrated around a core of the EU. “And it would be welcomed by PiS,” he added, as the ruling party is not keen on deepening the political integration with the rest of EU. Rafał Dymek, director of the Polish Robert Schuman Foundation, also sees the need for reform as an inherent part of the EU setup. And while he believes the need to be there, Dymek also warns of starting on reforms without a concrete plan. “Before we make source Government of the Czech Republic any changes, we need to define our goals: what should be the EU’s responsibilities? For what challenges in twenty years perspec- Ideas are already circulating, with Angela Jarosław Kaczyński, chairman of the ruling tive it should be prepared? What societal Merkel and the Italian hosts raising the issue Law and Justice (PiS) party, has been sup- aspects should be covered by the EU?” he of differentiated integration as one way to portive of opening negotiations for a new asks, warning that without answering these move forward in the EU. Various speeds are treaty for the EU. Last year he has revealed questions and pairing them with an ade- already a reality for the Union with the eu- that he has already reached out to a lawyer quate financial and institutional framework, rozone, Schengen etc. Nevertheless, for the to prepare such a proposal. As Kaczyński the result will be chaos. longest time, there was a belief in the Viseg- has an iron grip over the government, Prime rád countries that it is better not to be too Minister Beata Szydło also voiced her sup- Pełczyńska-Nałęcz does not see any chance flexible, as the countries feared being left on port for the reform of the EU last year and for quick reforms. “For a system of such the sidelines of developments with possibly promised to work on it. The ministry of for- complexity as the EU, any reform plan would far-reaching consequences. eign affairs is also pushing for it. need a support of a strong and numerous group of stakeholders. Currently, I do not see Eugeniusz Smolar, a board member at the It is obvious to all involved that the EU will be any such group around Poland,” she said. much more influenced by the results of elec- Centre for International Relations, noted, tions this year – at least in the Netherlands, “there is no chance for a treaty change, as HUNGARY: TWO-FACED RHETORIC France, Germany and possibly Italy – than no government will risk a failure of such Viktor Orbán has been on track with a fight by what will be written down in Rome. Nev- proposal”. Smolar thinks it is strange that for freedom against Brussels since he was ertheless, Rome and the weeks before the “Kaczyński pushes for treaty change, as elected in 2010. According to Orbán, the meeting itself will be a time for discussions there have to be people in his circle who European Commission is responsible for the on EU reform, and the Visegrád Group plans know well that it would be impossible to see to be a voice to be heard. through.” He agrees though that “the EU (Continued on next page) 7 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 complex crisis (both economic and political) of his political rhetoric, Hungarian society it an opening of the treaties or differentiated of the EU. “Every time the presidents cannot has a high opinion of EU institutions. Based integration. reach a consensus on a question – which on a 2016 Pew poll, 61% of Hungarians think “But we must clearly state, what kind of dif- happened in case of the Migrant Quota – that the European Union is a good thing, ferentiation and in which field will move us it is obvious that the Commission tends to whereas in France, it is just 38%. Medián’s forward. It must not become the basic prin- implements mandatory political require- last year survey shows that 77% of Hungar- ciple of future functioning of the EU because ments,” said the premier in an article recent- ians find it positive that Hungary is in the EU. that might lead towards further fragmenta- ly published in the right-wing American pe- Orbán’s two-faced rhetoric follows this tion.” The reluctance to undertake treaty riodical, the National Review. trend, and while he is constantly attacking change is not ideological. Rather, the argu- The truth is that the Commission operates Brussels Orbán is also emphasising the eco- ment goes that no one has identified what under strict rules imposed by the Council nomic benefits of the EU membership. should actually be amended. and the European Council within a “new in- “Orbán’s cultural counter-revolution – sup- At the same time, Bratislava believes that tergovernmentalism”, counters Róbert Csehi ported by Jaroslaw Kaczyński – is about member states should be the driver of the economist, political scientist, and researcher subverting the EU. He is anticipating that discussion on what kind of reform the EU at the Central European University. mainstream liberal elites are about to fail needs. Slovakia’s state secretary admits that “In most cases, the blame can be put on in- in the French, German and Dutch elections. the expected Commission white book on the tergovernmental institutions and member Therefore, he and other populists could future of the EU will be a “legitimate contribu- states. Between 2010-2013 the euro crisis take over the power in Europe,” said István tion to the discussion”, but does not see find- was thoroughly managed in the European Hegedűs, president of the Hungarian Euro- ing the answers to be an “institutional task”. Council and the Council, with only marginal pean Society. There are voices which advocate the need contribution from the Commission.” SLOVAKIA: NO DEFENCE REFLEX to go further with integration among Slovak Csehi claims that if Viktor Orbán is dissatis- public officials. “We are at a point, maybe On the political level, there is not much ap- fied with the EU’s decision-making policy, even beyond it, where we either take a qual- petite for a big overhaul of the EU in Slovakia. he might try to build a coalition within the itative leap forward, and that would be my Nevertheless, there is a basic mainstream European Council and make a proposal for preference, or we start to fall apart. Either consensus that EU needs consolidation. changing the EU treaty. way, the status quo is unsustainable,” says What that should look like is a more difficult Yet, the Hungarian government has been giv- Ivan Lesay, former state secretary at the min- question with few answers. The experience istry of finance responsible for the European ing mixed signals on the issue of opening the of the presidency of the Council of the EU treaties. At the beginning of last year, Orbán agenda, currently its highest ranking official. has left Slovakia slightly more open-minded To Lesay, the situation in the eurozone being urged the importance of it, but he changed and willing to reflect on the European fu- his tone after the Brexit referendum. a “half-finished product” and facing mainly ture, at least more than in the past. political risks is one example. Social, tax, se- “It is a signal from the Hungarian diplomacy, As the V4 readies its own contribution for curity and foreign policies are other candi- which means we are available if the bigger the Rome declaration, Slovak Prime Minister dates for further integration, which however member states are willing to open up,” said Robert Fico hinted in Valletta that the com- cannot be a goal per se. Botond Feledy, a researcher for CEID (Central mon narrative focuses on the “role of the in- The most likely scenario? The EU will survive, for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democra- dividual member states”. cy). “Without changing the Treaty, the EU but its importance will decline slowly over can hardly step forward, although it is a risky “We must respect each other in the EU, there time, Lesay says. project – especially in the countries where must not be stronger and weaker member Would the Slovaks support any major shifts? referendum is needed – to procrastinate,” states (…) There is no interest in breaking Yes and no, probably depending on how the he adds. something up, just to be a little more cou- question is asked. rageous,” given the circumstances of Brexit Budapest is most likely in a wait-and-see and new US approach, Fico said. V4 wants to Support for the EU is still relatively high in position now. “Instead of modifying the use the momentum to come up with “other Slovakia. But a recent research that looked power of institutions, Hungary is focusing ideas that would otherwise probably not be deeper into the opinions of citizens gives on improving the functioning of the EU. It is expected from us.” advises caution. “What has surprised us was not time to talk about the legal format yet, that many participants that have spontane- in which, by the way we are open and flex- State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign ously replied they feel positive about the ible,” Szabolcs Takács, State Secretary of EU Affairs Ivan Korčok says that the V4 will em- EU, later, when discussing more specifically, Affairs, told Political Capital. phasise safeguarding “three most important have become very critical and voiced disap- aspects – eurozone, Schengen and internal It would be a challenging test for Hungary pointment,” explains political scientist Ane- market”. to position itself in an institutionally two- ta Világi, of Comenius University. speed EU, where the core would be based Slovakia is aware of the voices coming from “We should not be complacent with our stable on the membership of the eurozone, be- the founding member states calling for a support of the public for the European integra- cause Hungary has no intention of adopting profound reform driven by the devotion to tion project,” she warns. “If any ‘Nigel Farage’, the common currency yet. Szabolcs Takács a deep integration and “ever closer union”. starts to mobilise these feelings of inner dissat- also says that Hungary may support deeper The prime minister says Slovakia does not isfaction and disappointment, I am afraid that economic cooperation for the sake of the see the need to open the treaties. Ivan Ko- the current consensus about the benefits of eurozone, but only if the unity of the single rčok acknowledges that even in the V4 “we the EU could evaporate very quickly.” market and a level playing field are provided might not have the same opinion when CZECH REPUBLIC: FOUR FREEDOMS and those who stay out will be able to de- it comes to profound internal changes as AND SECURITY cide freely on joining later. called for by Poland.“ The Czech Republic has always been op- The Hungarian premier has declared 2017 But Korčok adds that does not mean Slova- posed to either opening the treaties or a the year of rebellion, especially against the kia has “taboos” or a “defensive reflex” in any Commission and the European elite. In spite kind of debate about the future of the EU, be (Continued on next page) 8 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 deepening of differentiated integration. they promote useless proposals which di- control of external borders is ensured and There is a prevailing opinion that the legal vide the EU rather than solve current issues,” where the relevant authorities have suffi- framework and instruments at hand offer he added. cient instruments to protect people from enough room to tackle the current challeng- “We do not need ‘more Europe‘, but ‘less danger,” Czech State Secretary for European es. Regardless of possible variable speeds, Europe‘. We need less bureaucracy and Affairs Tomáš Prouza told Euractiv.cz. the EU should address the biggest expecta- regulations, more ties between the EU and He also said the EU must act more as an ac- tions of its citizens. the US and more free trade,” Czech MEP Jan tive global player responding actively to ex- These discussions tend to be currently over- Zahradil, of the Eurosceptic opposition par- ternal crises and threats of all nature. shadowed by those focusing on the security ty ODS (ECR), told Euractiv.cz. Regarding economic and social issues, aspects of future European cooperation. Only one-third of Czechs (36%) believe that which are also high on the concerns of Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka the European project has a future, according Czech citizens, according to the polls, the (Social Democrats) plans to discuss Brex- to an opinion poll conducted in April 2016 by government is focused on preserving the it and the European project’s future with the Public Opinion Research Centre (CVVM). four freedoms of the EU single market. all parties elected to the Czech Parliament More than half (53%) of the 1063 respond- “The four freedoms have developed equally. next week. Sobotka says he wants to have a ents said they did not have confidence in We must avoid both European and national “nation-wide” discussion across the political the European integration. These numbers measures which would limit these freedoms,” spectrum. are very similar to what the previous poll on Prime Minister Sobotka said in an interview According to Pavel Fára, of the Confedera- this topic showed in 2012. with Euroskop.cz, adding that the most press- tion of Industry of the Czech Republic, one According to a Eurobarometer poll conduct- ing issue is the freedom of movement. of the problems of Czech EU debates is that ed last fall, the biggest challenges that the This issue is connected with the negotia- European topics are used by populists for EU faces are immigration (63 %), terrorism tions on Brexit. The UK’s decision to leave raising a “storm in a teacup” and sidelining (47 %) and the state of public finances (15%), the EU is one of the biggest challenges that the important issues. Czechs think. the EU has to deal with, Czech MEP Luděk “On the other hand, the European repre- “Citizens feel secure only if they are con- Niedermayer of the pro-EU opposition party sentatives should realise that sometimes fident that they live in an area where full TOP 09 (EPP) told EURACTIV. n

THE V4 WILL NEVER AGREE ON RUSSIA

It would be hard to find a political issue CZECHS FIGHT AGAINST RUSSIAN However, one member of the executive that divides the Visegrád group more PROPAGANDA branch opposes this stance. Czech President than their opinion of the Putin regime. Russia´s relationships with western countries Miloš Zeman has repeatedly stated that sanctions against Moscow damage Czech Authors: Edit Zgut, Jakub Šimkovic, Krzysztof have been getting worse over the last few agriculture and industry. Last year he even Kokoszczynski and Lukáš Hendrych years. The Czech Republic is not an excep- tion. The annexation of Crimea and continu- declared that “sanctions are an expression While the relationship between NATO and ing war in eastern Ukraine are the main rea- of helplessness”. Jaroslav Hanák, the presi- the Russian Federation is tenser than it has sons why the Czech government has sup- dent of the Confederation of Industry of the ever been since the end of the Cold War, and ported EU sanctions since the beginning. Its the V4 decided to send 150 soldiers apiece stance is consistent in this regard. (Continued on next page) to the Russian border, which constitutes NA- TO’s eastern flank, members of the group dif- fer widely on their approach to the Kremlin. Though the traditionally anti-Moscow Po- land views President Vladimir Putin’s geo- political efforts as an existential threat to the Baltic states, the Slovakian and Hungarian leaderships are significantly more pro-Rus- sian in this regard. The Hungarian gov- ernment disguises its pro-Russian stance behind a mask of pragmatism.In the Czech Republic, conversely, President Miloš Zeman openly espouses pro-Russian views. Although the Visegrád Group followed EU policy since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, and it supported the sanctions and stood up for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, important differences are noticeable be- tween the policies followed by the four indi- vidual governments. In the following joint article, we will give an overview of the relations between the V4 and Russia and their opinion on the Ukrain- source Kremlin ian crisis. 9 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

Czech Republic, has a similar opinion. “We against the Russian disinformation cam- ing weak spots,” Marta Kowalska, a research have to take the initiative and propose lift- paign. Jakub Kalenský, a Czech journalist, is a fellow at the Pułaski Foundation said. ing the sanctions against Russia, especially member of this force. According to Kalenský, The economic relationship is also affected in the Visegrad Group,” he thinks. the best way to fight foreign propaganda is by hard feelings between Poland and Rus- Economic sanctions against Russia prob- the establishment of national centres as the sia. Russian gas, and to lesser extent oil, are ably have had a negative impact on trade Czech government did. still important elements of the Polish energy between Russia and the Czech Republic. In Barbora Knappová from the Prague Securi- supply. Furthermore, Russia used to be an 2012, bilateral trade amounted to CZK 270 ty Studies Institute also confirms the pres- important export destination for many dif- million (€10 million), but in 2015 it was only ence of Russian hybrid threats. “The most ferent branches of the Polish economy, espe- CZK 180 million (€6.6 million). On the other common way is spreading disinformation cially for Polish agriculture. Given the current hand, only 1.9% of total Czech exports went on so-called alternative websites. However, strained state of the relationship between to Russia in 2016. The interests of Czech Russia influences European public opinion Poland and Russia, the situation is changing. entrepreneurs focused on Russian markets in several ways. These include connections Poland is still the 12th most important trade are understandable. Despite the efforts of with political parties, even extremist ones, partner for Russia, but both imports and ex- Czech business and Zeman, the govern- support of paramilitary groups or financial ports have been falling every year, including ment´s stance has not changed and, accord- and economic tools,” she stressed. the export of machinery from Poland, which ing to many pundits, that is a good thing. As far as the Centre against Terrorism and is quite important from the perspective of Poland, not to mention the heavy hit taken “In my opinion, the policy of our govern- Hybrid Threats is concerned, the Czech pres- by Polish agricultural exports in the wake of ment is correct. However, it would be ap- ident strongly disagrees with it. He repeat- sanctions against Russia. propriate if this position would be stressed edly stressed that no one has a monopoly more loudly to the public,” said Michael Ro- on truth. He also expressed his doubts about Poland and Ukraine: struggling to find a mancov, a political geographer from Charles the danger of cyber attacks a few weeks common ground on difficult shared history University in Prague. “V4 countries have to ago. According to him, “the claptraps about Polish-Ukrainian relations, despite Polish be united in their stances against Russia. We all sorts of cyber attacks are kind of a fash- support for Kiev since the Maidan protests, have to oppose Russian policy, which is dan- ion”. Regardless of the president´s words, including the EU-Ukraine Association Agree- gerous mainly for smaller states and states the Czech government takes these modern ment, have become more complicated since that are situated in the area of Russian – or threats seriously. the change of government in Poland in 2015. former Soviet – influence,” he added. POLAND: RELATIONS ARE COLD BUT Officially, the Polish government, as Prime Top 09 MEP Jaromír Štětina (EPP) is more DISINFORMATION STILL WORKS Minister Beata Szydło has said, “considers free and independent Ukraine to be a guar- sceptical. “Czech policy towards Russian Poland and Russia do not have the best rela- antee of security for Poland” and to achieve aggression is too cautious. Pragmatism ex- tionship. While the shared, difficult history is that goal Warsaw wants to pursue bilateral ceeds the protection of human rights and certainly a factor, including but not limited projects and work together with Kiev. But international law. Czech politicians should to the Cold War period when Poland was a the situation is not as clear as it would seem. demand tougher sanctions,” he said. In his little more than a puppet state for Russia, view, V4 countries should follow the exam- there are also other factors. Given the hostil- Poland and Ukraine can hardly find a com- ple of Poland. “We should be aware of secu- ity between Russia and the West in general, mon ground in conversations about diffi- rity threats and strengthen our cooperation Poland is worried about Russian military ex- cult elements of shared history. Debate on with NATO. I would also like to see NATO ercises and build-up, but the actual bilateral current challenges is often burdened by the troops in the Czech Republic,” he added. relationship is not used to ease the tension. politics of memory. For example, Ukrainian nationalists insist on celebrating heroes who Disinformation strongly affects Czech As Piotr Buras, the director of the ECFR’s are considered criminals by the Polish side, society Warsaw Office, noted, “the current [bilater- while the Polish Sejm defines the actions of al] relations are on a very low, working level. However, the issue is not only Crimea, the the Ukrainian resistance between 1943 and They are kept this way due to the Russian Ukrainian war and sanctions. Recently, we 1945 as ‘genocide’. have been able to observe increasingly se- policy towards Ukraine, as well as relations rious efforts to fight disinformation and between Russia and the West, which Poland Russian disinformation targets tensions propaganda in the Czech Republic. Accord- has little opportunity to change,” said Buras. between Warsaw and Kiev ing to opinion polls, many Czechs believe Poland has been clear in denouncing the an- These factors leave Poland highly suscepti- news that is unverified or unreliable, so the nexation of Crimea by Russia as a violation ble to Russian disinformation. As Kowalska efforts of the Czech government have a pur- of international law. Since then, it has led a told EURACTIV POLAND, “Moscow wants to pose. For example, a survey undertaken by strong campaign for sanctions against Rus- further strain Polish-Ukrainian relations, so the STEM agency in June 2016 concludes sia on the international scene, including the Russian disinformation keenly targets Pol- that more than a half of Czech citizens are European Union. ish-Ukrainian history.” convinced that the United States is the cause Other than that, the relationship is rather un- On the one hand, putting Russian actions of migration from Syria. A quarter believes friendly at the moment and openly pro-Rus- aside, Łukasz Jasina of the Polish Institute so-called alternative media and disinforma- sian views have a hard time in making their of International Affairs noted that “after the tion websites and almost 40% of them think way into the political mainstream. Never- Maidan revolution the Ukrainian approach that Washington caused the Ukrainian crisis. theless, that does not mean that Poland has to Poland has become more pragmatic: re- The Czech Ministry of Interior established been spared by various pro-Russian disinfor- lations with Poland are worth as much as it is a new Centre against Terrorism and Hy- mation campaigns – far from it. “While due possible to gain from them. Hence the cool brid Threats, which should, inter alia, focus to our shared history it might have seemed approach of Kiev to the present government on disinformation and propaganda in the that we would be more resistant to Russian [of Poland]: due to the tensions between Czech Republic. There is a similar project disinformation, we are submitting to it. Warsaw and Brussels, Ukraine is aware that on the European level called East StratCom While Russia in Poland cannot use openly Task Force that was primarily created to fight pro-Russian elements, it is skilled at exploit- (Continued on next page) 10 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

Poland no longer can be as effective on their bours have. […] The Slovak public view has a special attitude towards the Russian behalf in Brussels”. The growing sense of is characterised by ambivalence and the leadership. tension between Poland and Ukraine may prioritisation of its own pragmatically un- “This is not a relationship based on mutu- continue to loom larger over the coming derstood short-sighted interests over more al trust. Viktor Orbán was one of the most months, increasing the chance for diplomat- value-based positions,” Grigorij Mesežnikov anti-Russian politicians in Europe between ic conflict. On the other hand, according to and Oľga Gyárfášová wrote. 1988 and 2009, which Moscow has not for- Kowalska, Russian-Polish relations will con- One year later, opinion leaders advocating gotten” – said Russia expert András Rácz, a tinue to be de facto frozen, as “there is no lifting the sanctions against Russia, such as professor at Pázmány Péter Catholic Uni- chance for improvement in the short-term”. the PM Fico, are turning increasingly vocal, versity. Viktor Orbán’s longstanding an- SLOVAKIA: RELUCTANT, BUT STILL IN Mesežnikov told EurActiv. If Russia decides ti-Russian stance evaporated right after he LINE WITH EU SANCTIONS to attack Ukraine once again, the public is briefly met Vladimir Putin in 2009. However, more likely to side with Ukraine. Until then, what happened during the discussion has Pro-Russian sentiment dating back to the the important thing is the viewpoint of opin- been a mystery ever since. Rácz believes second half of the 19th century is still able to ion-forming politicians and the way the me- Russian-Hungarian relations form an asym- sneak into modern politics in Slovakia, as its dia addresses the conflict. metric system based on occasional interests historical experience differs from that of its in the frames of which the Hungarian gov- neighbours. During the Bratislava Summit On the necessity of a new anti-propagan- ernment’s goal is to secure cheap energy to on 16 September 2016, Slovakia’s Prime Min- da unit aid its re-election, while the Russian side’s ister Robert Fico managed to spark an out- In Slovakia, like elsewhere in the V4 region, purpose is to advance the abolishment of cry with his assessment on the fulfilment of there are dozens of media outlets dissemi- the sanctions. the Minsk II agreement. Reuters quoted Fico, nating Russian propaganda. For more than who said, “Ukraine is doing less than Russia three years, experts such as Jaroslav Naď of Pragmatism based on Hungary’s energy to meet Minsk deal.” At times, Fico questions the Security Slovak Policy Institute (SSPI), dependence on Russia has always been a the sanctions imposed by the EU. At the EU have been pointing out that even the com- decisive factor in defining incumbent Hun- level, however, Slovakia is perfectly in line ment sections on news websites are riddled garian governments’ Moscow-strategy, and with the Union’s sanctions regime. Presi- with paid opinions devised abroad, the pay- one of the most important building blocks dent Andrej Kiska holds a different opinion ments possibly coming from Russian intel- of current Hungarian-Russian relations is the on Russia than Fico. The attitudes of the two ligence. Minister of Interior Robert Kaliňák partially top secret Paks project planned to have been consistent since the annexation finally acknowledged this fact two years be financed from a loan from Russia. Howev- of Crimea. later by saying that there are “information er, the long-term gas contracts allow for low energy prices, which aided Orbán is secur- Alexander Duleba of the Slovak Foreign channels” trying to undermine Slovakia´s ing another term in 2014. “I would not con- Policy Association (SFPA) notes that Slovak position in Euro-Atlantic structures. sider Hungary a part of the Russian sphere Prime Minister was able find a common in- EURACTIV Slovakia consulted with claim of influence, but certainly an entity Moscow terest with Kyiv in rejecting the Nord Stream there is a need to set up a unit dealing with poured resources into, and for this Putin 2 pipeline project, but at the same time propaganda on a national level. The spokes- expects something in return,” said György he attended the WWII commemoration in person of the Ministry of Interior, Michaela Deák András, a senior research fellow at the Moscow. President Kiska is, on the contrary, Paulenová, said that hybrid warfare is to be World Economy Institute. frequently promoting common European tackled in the forthcoming update of the Se- decision-making and the need for maintain- curity Strategy. She didn’t disclose whether Relativizing the Russian geopolitical ag- ing the sanctions. Somewhere in the mid- the ministry is considering the establish- gression dle, Minister of Foreign and European Affairs ment of a specialized body such as in the Budapest mainly differs from the more hard Miroslav Lajčák is trying to find a common Czech Republic. line Poland and the Baltic states in that it does ground, Duleba explained. Paulenová, however, suggested that “cer- not see the continuity of the threat posed The expert stresses that Slovakia in reality tain elements of the targeted Russian by Russia in relation to the crisis in Ukraine. enabled Ukraine to stop importing gas from propaganda and resentment towards the During his joint press conference with Pu- Russia. “That shows Slovakia’s importance EU and NATO in Slovakia” are addressed by tin, Viktor Orbán went as far as praising the for the energy security of Ukraine and the the National Security and Analytical Centre achievements of Hungarian-Russian bilater- act should be considered a clear support in (NBAC), which brought together represent- al economic ties in the face of the “strongly the context of confrontation with Russia,” atives of major state security authorities. anti-Russian sentiment in the Western part of Duleba said. Mitigating risks posed by the dissemination the continent” and what he considers to be “fashionable anti-Russian politics”. Public ambivalence of extremist propaganda in cyberspace, she explained, is further boosted by a project With regards to the crisis in Ukraine, Orbán In March 2016, opinion polls made by Insti- entitled EMICVEC (Effective Monitoring, only emphasised the importance of imple- tute for Public Affairs (IVO) were featured Investigation and Countering of Violent Ex- menting the Minsk Treaty, by which he prac- in Diverging Voices, Converging Policies, a tremism in Cyberspace). tically relativized the Russian aggression and publication of the Heinrich Böll Foundation. at the same time made the official Hungar- One of the authors of the pan-Visegrad anal- HUNGARY AIMS TO BE THE ‘PILLAR’ OF ian stance supporting Ukraine’s territorial ysis, Grigorij Mesežnikov said: “We see the RENEWED EU-RUSSIAN RELATIONS sovereignty and European integration look Russian-Ukrainian conflict as a test to our so- Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis frivolous. “The Hungarian government’s cieties, our foreign policy and the politicians.” Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán have met stance repeatedly emphasising Minsk II. It’s Slovakia was at the time the sole V4 country three times in two years. The latest meeting music to the Kremlin’s ears. Russia is not fea- in which the level of trust in Russians was in the series took place on 2 February, 2017, tured in the agreement as a concerned par- higher than it was in America (33 % vs. 23%). when the Russian president visited Buda- ty in any way and neither does the issue of “We can confirm that the Slovak public have pest. This is unparalleled among Europe- Crimea. Consequently, the Minsk Treaty can- traditionally had a relatively greater affini- an leaders and the frequency of meetings ty towards Russia than any of their neigh- indicates that the Hungarian government (Continued on next page) 11 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 not be the basis of a future wide-reaching scenario. Zoltán Sz. Bíró believes the goal aganda machine uses Hungary as a tool in settlement for Ukraine,” said Russia expert of the government echoing this completely its attack against Western values and the EU. Biró Sz. Zoltán. unrealistic number is to create a reason for Increasing political influence is also indicat- The Orbán government defined Hunga- criticising the sanctions policy. ed by the fact that the Russian thread is not ry’s role as one of the “pillars” of restarting Following the Russian pattern explored or investigated properly in cases EU-Russia relations by constantly arguing The now regular Russian-Hungarian leader- threatening Hungarian or regional national for lifting sanctions, which led Russian prop- ship summits’ significance in non-economic security that involve Russian secret servic- aganda channel Sputnik to call Hungary matters is underlined by the fact that Viktor es’ influencing attempts. For example, in the “battering ram” of the Kremlin. Fidesz Orbán himself referred to the success of the the case of the far-right paramilitary or- claims sanctions have caused a serious loss Russian illiberal model in 2014, and it seems ganisation holding joint drills with “Russian in the volume of exports to Hungary. “The like he follows the Russian example when diplomats,” the Russian connection has not sanctions policy does not only influence the he moves again free media and civil socie- been investigated appropriately and it is un- performance of Russian economy, but also ty organisations “attempting to overthrow likely this will happen due to close Hungari- that of former Soviet republics closely tied the government” or the ones labelled as an-Russian relations. to Russia, which has quite strong effects on “foreign agents”. Moreover, the Hungarian This situation has materialised in a society Hungary. The total loss amounts to USD 6.7 government’s rhetoric does not touch upon where 32% of Hungarian respondents to a billion due to the decline in the volume of the existence of the information war that is survey said Hungary should be part of the goods and services exported,” Deputy State accepted as a part of official Russian hybrid West, and Eastern-oriented respondents Secretary for Eastern Opening Zsolt Csutora warfare, which is the opposite of the prac- were barely visible (6%). The relative major- tols Political Capital. The minister admitted tice in the region, even though the Ministry ity (50%) would place our nation between that his number is not based on the real data of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s background the West and the East – at least in geopoliti- from 2013, but on a sanctionless 2014-2016 institution admitted that the Russian prop- cal and cultural terms. n

V4 ENERGY SECURITY: THE LAND OF NUCLEAR AND COAL

Visegrád countries are seeking ways to such a scheme were already introduced in diversify resources, among other reasons. ensure energy security while delivering Slovakia. Hungarian Greens/EFA MEP Benedek Jávor on their climate commitments. Nuclear Poland is preparing for an introduction of its says Hungary currently depends on Russia is seen as the ideal solution by some, own mechanism, too. But the country, reli- for 60% of its energy needs and it does not with natural gas playing a limited role. ant on coal, is strongly against a proposal by make sense that the Fidesz government Authors: Adéla Denková, Edit Zgut, Krzysztof the Commission to impose an emission lim- wants to remedy this by a treaty on a nuclear Kokoszczy and Pavol Szalai it that would prevent coal power plants from power plant financed by a Russian loan, built Energy systems in Europe are changing, entering the capacity support schemes. by the Russians, constructed using Russian with the increasing deployment of renew- One of the solutions for Poland to decrease technology and depending on (imported) able sources redefining old truths. Accord- its dependence on coal could be to opt for Russian fuel for its operation. ing to ideal visions, the energy mix in the nuclear power. That would be in line with “The government made no meaningful at- EU should be based on energy efficiency, the strategies of the other V4 states. Two tempt to outline an alternative to the two renewables and natural gas, which is per- new reactors are being built in Slovakia, and new blocks, even though estimates suggest ceived as a relatively clean source, flexible the Czech Republic has started to look for a investment costs would be as much as 30 enough to be compatible with solar or wind supplier of technology for another one. And per cent lower than what will be spent on power. Hungary has already received approval for the Paks expansion, by focusing on renew- Ironically, it is not profitable to operate gas the Russia-financed Paks II project. able energy and improving energy efficien- power plants under current market condi- HUNGARY: ONE WORD – PAKS cy,” the MEP said. tions, and many say renewables are to be The construction of two new nuclear blocks Hungarian governments have never been blamed for this. at the Paks site is the epicentre of Viktor Or- fond of renewable energy resources. “The In November 2016, the European Commis- bán government’s energy strategy. Orbán government went as far as putting special taxes on solar energy-related invest- sion introduced a jumbo legislative package Hungary currently depends on energy im- ments and made it completely impossible (aka Winter Package). Apart from the obvi- ports for 70%of its needs. The government to construct wind turbines. This is unprece- ous, it is an attempt to restore stability to the believes the easiest solution is to increase dented and goes against European energy electricity market in the EU. the capacity of the country’s only nuclear policy and global trends openly,” president There are two ways for Europe to ensure plant, contrary to the main concerns that of the Energy Club Ada Ámon said. stability for investments into stable con- this nuclear deal will further increase de- ventional power plants, as member states pendence on the Russian energy industry. The Commission raised concerns about sev- eral issues regarding the €12.5 billion Paks have to decide between a market-based ap- Government commissioner András Aradsz- investment, including the lack of public pro- proach and so-called capacity mechanisms ki argues that stable electricity production curement tender and illegal state aid to the designed to remunerate the availability of systems and new capacities that do not de- plant, but in the end gave a green light to electricity generation. pend on weather conditions are needed be- the project. This is one of the issues that the countries cause otherwise the country’s ability to pro- of the Visegrád Group – Poland, Czech Re- vide electricity at satisfactory prices would According to the latest polls, the project is public, Hungary and Slovakia – are divided be threatened. Some experts claim that opposed by 43% of Hungarians. However, on. While the Czechs oppose the implemen- nuclear energy has had a place in the Hun- tation of capacity mechanisms, versions of garian energy mix for a long time to help (Continued on next page) 12 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

23% have not yet decided what they think tion of Photovoltaic Industry (SAPI). “Big cen- of 70 EUR/MWh, the long-term market price about it. tralised units – including nuclear reactors – being slightly higher than 30 EUR/MWh,” Regulated prices of energy: Paws off! are ‘a matter of the past’,” Ján Karaba of SAPI Duleba explained. told EurActiv.sk. Energy policy, namely the Energy Union, has Karaba believes that “introducing some become one of the constant sources of con- There is a consensus that renewables, as form of capacity mechanism” would be the flict between Brussels and the Hungarian a domestic source of power, contribute to solution. This is also the hope of the domi- government. Viktor Orbán believes the EU security of supplies. At the same time, the nant gas utility and emerging power utility wants to ban Hungarian utility cost cuts by overwhelming view is sceptical of their sub- Slovenský Plynárenský Priemysel (SPP). amending the directive regulating the elec- sidies and fearful of their role in the system The company welcomed the introduction of tricity market as part of the Winter Package. stability. In fact, since 2013, distribution sys- CO limits as a criterion for capacity mecha- tem operators have been refusing to con- 2 The European Commission’s actual problem nisms in the Commission’s Winter Package. nect to the grid renewable capacities supe- with Hungarian energy policy is that the It hopes that the proposals include the rior to 10 kW. government sets energy prices in decrees factor of “emissions of other polluting sub- and the benefits of this are only available to Karol Galek, an opposition member of the stances”, too. household consumers. Fidesz wants to keep Slovak parliament’s economy committee A kind of a capacity mechanism – in the form the regulation of household electricity pric- and the energy expert of the Sloboda a Sol- of feed-in tariffs – was already introduced es in the hands of member states. It could idarita party, believes that nuclear energy in Slovakia, designed for the Nováky plant serve their own electoral goals, influential will continue to play a dominant role. But he powered by domestic brown coal. adds that “unsubsidized renewables, which Hungarian journalist Gábor Stier explains. It is unlikely that the power from coal (cur- must reflect local conditions, have the big- Utility cost cuts were already one of the rently 12% in the electricity mix) will be re- main campaign messages of Fidesz in 2014. gest potential”. Stier says it is one of the reasons why it is important for Hungary to obtain favourable negotiation positions with Russia. He says this was successfully achieved by the ex- tension of Hungary’s long-term natural gas contract. On the contrary, Ada Ámon said it is alarm- ing that our dependence on the Russian en- ergy industry is increasing. She also believes that the partly classified treaty on the Paks nuclear plant subordinates Hungary to Rus- sian interests not just in energy, but political- ly as well. SLOVAKIA: THE NUCLEAR CHAMPION Few in Slovakia believe that nuclear energy will not play a crucial role in the country’s electricity mix in the following decades. At 58% in 2015, its share will further increase before the end of the decade following the launch of two new reactors at Mochovce. Alexander Duleba, an energy analyst at the source IAEA/Flickr Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA), be- lieves that a safe operation of reactors is the key to Slovakia’s energy security, but also to According to energy analyst Karel Hirman, cheap supplies. “The power produced in old placed by natural gas (6%) in the foreseea- “energy security means the accessibility of nuclear reactors is currently the least expen- ble future. The image of the cleanest fossil sufficient amount of energy for a fair and sive,” Duleba told EurActiv.sk. fuel was, moreover, damaged by the 2009 affordable price when this energy/power is gas crisis. The analyst does, however, foresee a gradu- needed.” That implies a mix that does not “Today, Slovakia is a far more secure coun- al increase of the share of decentralised re- threaten the grid’s stability by unpredicta- try in terms of gas supplies than in 2009,” newables, which covered 23% of electricity ble fluctuations. “The deployment of renew- Duleba said, adding, however, that gas demand in 2015, with hydropower playing ables must stick to this frame,” Hirman told has a much more important role to play in the prime role. to EurActiv.sk. heating. “Together with the Netherlands we “Nuclear energy is the basis of low-emission Coal vs gas: Coal prevails have the densest gas network in the EU,” he power production and renewable sources also stressed. play a significant role in meeting the objec- It is generally acknowledged that subsidies tives stemming from the EU membership for renewables deformed the energy mar- SPP also underlined there is a great oppor- and help reducing global warming,” the Slo- ket, which in turn undermined gas power. It tunity for natural gas offered by energy ef- vak ministry of economy also said, stressing is illustrated by the fate of modern gas pow- ficiency measures, joining a cross-sectoral the priority of “energy security” and “cost er plant Malženice. consensus on the contribution of energy efficiency to Slovakia’s energy security. De- effectiveness”. “After a short test operation, the plant had spite the continued decrease in energy in- Raising the percentage of renewables in the to close, because it was not capable of pro- energy mix is the goal of the Slovak Associa- ducing electricity under the operation costs (Continued on next page) 13 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017 tensity, in 2015 Slovakia’s figure still ranked tralised systems independent from fuel to Malženice in Slovakia. Unless the price among the highest in the EU and 80 percent supplies are the best solution we have been of allowances and electricity is higher than higher than EU’s average. able to come up. An energy system based on today, it does not make sense to build new renewables could look that way,” Jan Osička gas generation capacities, Trejbal said. In his CZECH REPUBLIC: NOTHING BUT THE from Masaryk University in Brno also thinks. view, domestic reserves of coal offer a more MARKET Would gas save it? probable alternative to the nuclear blocs at In its energy strategy until 2040, the Czech the moment. Republic counts on nuclear power to replace Regarding the current problems of market coal as the main pillar of electricity gener- functioning, there is a coincidence of three POLAND: COAL (AND NUCLEAR?) ation. Its share should rise from the current factors: low price of allowances in the Euro- Poland is a very traditional market in terms 33% up to 45 or 50% over the next 23 years, pean emission trading scheme (EU ETS), low of energy supply. Most of the energy gen- helping the country both with stable elec- price of coal, and generation overcapacity, erated by Polish power plants comes from tricity supplies and climate goals fulfilment. according to Osička. fossil fuels. Coal’s position is dominant and By 2037, a new reactor at the Dukovany site “When it comes to electricity price, the unlikely to change in the coming years – should be put operation, possibly followed problem is that the fossil fuel industry does plants fuelled by black and brown coal are by another one later. There is also a plan to not pay adequately for the environmental responsible for generating over 80% of en- expand the other nuclear plant in Temelín. damages they cause,” Polanecký also said. ergy in Poland. Imposing a carbon tax could solve the low The government has already got in touch Coal plants are not only providing jobs by price of allowances, he thinks. with potential technology suppliers, but themselves. They are also connected with one serious challenge remains unsolved. Unlike many other countries, the Czech Re- coal mines and strong as ever miners’ labour The model for financing of this project public strongly opposes the establishment unions that vehemently oppose any plans worth around €4 billion is still unclear, and of capacity mechanisms. leading to a decrease in their power. As they Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka already in- “These should be the last resort measures, are a highly-organised and motivated group formed that there is no will to offer any kind justified by the regional generation ade- of voters, the miners enjoy a significant of price guarantees. quacy assessment conducted according to amount of influence in Polish politics. Just like in other European countries, invest- the EU common methodology. Capacity Poland also plans to join the club of coun- ment into conventional generation sources mechanisms should be market-based and tries using nuclear energy. The country’s first is considered to be critically unprofitable. not market distorting, and should include nuclear power plant was supposed to be on- That is also why the Czech ministry of indus- comprehensive phase-out roadmaps in case line in 2024, but it has suffered a number of try and trade views the currently negotiat- that the market deficiencies are removed. delays and currently the earliest date for it to ed EU electricity market reform as a crucial They must also be cross-border opened,” become operational is 2029 or 2030. issue. New market design should put an said Lenka Kovačovská, the Czech deputy Current energy minister Krzysztof Tchórze- end to market distortions, according to the minister of industry and trade claimed at the wski stressed recently the need for such Czechs. Energy Council at the end of February. power plant, and he hopes that the con- A “Level playing field must be ensured for all One of the theoretical questions constantly struction can start in “the coming two market participants,” the Czech negotiating present in Czech energy debates is whether years”. He added that a nuclear power plant position reads, underlining that active con- natural gas could play a more significant role is necessary for Poland, especially as the sumers or local energy communities should in electricity generation, possibly replacing country plans to continue use of coal, so be subject to the same conditions. nuclear in energy strategies. nuclear power will be “necessary to stabilise our energy mix”. Renewable sources of energy should play a According to green NGOs, which put em- significant role in the country’s future elec- phasis on the need to reduce consumption In terms of renewable energy, there are two tricity mix. In 2040, they could cover up to of gas in heating, it could complement re- main sources in Poland: biomass (over 80%of 25% of power generation, according to the newables in the electricity mix, as it is a flex- all the energy from renewable sources) and, national strategy. However, the government ible source, and it is also cleaner than coal. to a far smaller degree, wind (10%). Accord- is cautious when it comes to financial sup- This view is shared by a broader spectrum ing to the recent numbers by Eurostat, the port of green energy, based on bad expe- of stakeholders. However, concerns remain total RES share in 2015 was 11.8% against the riences with “solar boom” which occurred due to the bad image of gas connected with target of 15% in 2020. between 2009 and 2010. the security of supplies. The potential of renewables was supposed “The rapid development of renewables Osička says there is no need to worry. “We to be strengthened by a new bill in 2015. Yet turned the electricity market upside down, are the best-prepared country in Europe it was criticised by the groups as the legis- completely destroying the traditional invest- when it comes to the N-1 standard of sup- lation, together with amendments added in ment cycle in many countries and regions ply security. In January 2009 we survived a 2016, slowed down the market and failed to including the Czech Republic and Central Eu- thirteen-day-long interruption of the main support the development of the small-scale rope. It also brings significant costs for grid supply route – without problems. Since 2014 generation by citizens, farmers and SMEs maintenance,” says Václav Trejbal, an analyst we have successfully participated in supply- and the so-called prosumer economy. for the Czech confederation of industry. ing Ukraine with gas from Western Europe,” “The small-scale generation of energy from On the other hand, together with energy effi- he stressed. renewable sources should be a basis for ciency measures, renewables are considered According to Trejbal, gas does have its place the development of a decentralised power to contribute to energy security. “Physically, in Czech energy mix. “It is also one of the as- sector in Poland and for contribution to the these are the only domestic sources (unlike sumptions of the Czech energy strategy,” he 2020 RES target, which now is not likely to oil, gas or nuclear) which we are not running said. The strategic document counts on 5 to be achieved,” EURACTIV.pl was told by Grze- out of (unlike coal)”, Karel Polanecký of the 15% of gas in electricity generation. gorz Wiśniewski, president of the EC BREC Institute for Renewable Energy. Friends of the Earth Czech Republic said. However, Trejbal mentions the fate of mod- “When it comes to energy security, decen- ern gas plant in Počerady, very much similar (Continued on next page) 14 VISEGRAD AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION | 27. 3. – 31. 3. 2017

He admitted that given the increased po- liticisation of the Polish energy sector as a whole, it is difficult to foresee how the elec- tricity market will develop. However more and more politicians are calling for legal en- forcement of the development of prosumer energy, he said. Gas: Let’s have links to everyone Natural gas security is a much more compli- cated issue than coal. Poland imports nearly 75% of its gas from outside of the country. The chief source of imports is Russia – over 70% of the gas imported to Poland is bought from Gazprom. Yet there are many ways for the situation to change. As Robert Zajdler from the Sobieski Institute noted, the gas infrastructure has been improving in Poland over the recent years. “We have both new LNG terminal in Świnoujście and plans for the Baltic Pipe connecting Poland to Denmark and Nor- way,” he noted. The Świnoujście terminal, put into opera- tion in 2015, can host 5 billion cubic meters of LNG per year, less than a third of the Pol- ish yearly demand. Poland has a long-term contract with Qatar for supplying the LNG, which uses about a third of the terminal’s capacity and is supported by spot transac- tions, most recently with Statoil. Other than the terminal, Poland invests in Source: www.pixbay.com connections with most of its neighbours. “We have a good connection with the German market which is both big and liq- Finally, Poland is trying to lever its mem- been convinced to focus more on the en- uid enough to be able to provide us with bership in the EU to secure its supply. Civic ergy security, which includes pushing for security. There are also already existing Platform MEP Jerzy Buzek (EPP) and Donald increased cooperation between the mem- and planned, connections with the Czech Tusk, while he was still prime minister of Po- ber states, protected status, and plans for Republic, Slovakia, and Lithuania which land, had been the initial force pushing for joint purchases, though the latter were not will further improve our security,” Zajdler the closer energy union. implemented,” senior fellow of the Pulaski explained. “Thanks to the Polish actions, the EU has Foundation Przemysław Zaleski said. n

.sk .cz .pl

This Special Report is published as part of a project entitled V4 and the Future of the EU by EurActiv.sk (coordinating partner), EurActiv.cz, Political Capital Institute and EurActiv.pl. The project was supported by the International Visegrad Fund, project number 21630371.

For more information, please contact Pavel Nikodem, EurActiv.sk, Managing Director, +421 910 929 575, [email protected]