BRIEFING BOOK CORE CAPACITY TRANSIT STUDY BART Caltrain MUNI 80 AC Transit Ferry Berkeley 80 HWY 580 THE CORE San Francisco Alameda Oakland HWY 1 HWY HWY 880 HWY 101 Daly City HWY 280 HWY CORE CAPACITY TRANSIT STUDY Metropolitan Transportation Commission TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1 Bay Area Transit Core Capacity Study Area . 3 Figure 2 Existing Population Density - 2012 . 10 TABLE OF CONTENTS Figure 3 Projected Population Density and Growth - 2040 . 10 Figure 4 Existing Job Density - 2012 . 11 INTRODUCTION . 1 Figure 5 Projected Job Density and Growth - 2040 . 11 Study Overview . 2 Figure 6 Transbay Corridor Travel Demand Projection Vs . Actual Growth to Snapshot: The System Today . 4 Date . 14 Snapshot: The System in the Future . 5 Figure 7 Transbay Corridor Capacity and Potential Growth in Travel Briefing Book Structure . 6 Demand . 15 TRENDS . 7 Figure 8 San Francisco Corridor Definitions . 16 Figure 9 SF Metro Projected Peak-Hour Utilization by Corridor (2040) and Market Trends . 7 2015-2040 for Sunset and Richmond corridors . 17 Population Growth & Development Patterns . .. 9 Figure 10 BART’s Fleet of the Future . 25 Ridership Trends . 13 Figure 11 Transbay Peak Hour Passengers per Car . 25 CHALLENGES . 19 Figure 12 Pattern of Station Use Throughout the Day . 26 Figure 13 Embarcadero and Montgomery Peak Hour AM Exits as a Percent Transbay Corridor . 21 of Station Capacity . 27 Metro Rail . 23 Figure 14 Embarcadero Station Constraint Points . 28 Ferries . 39 Figure 15 Capacity Constraints in the Oakland Wye . 29 Peninsula – Commuter and Metro Rail . 55 Figure 16 Traffic Impacts During West Oakland Fire . 31 San Francisco – Light Rail and Bus . 43 Figure 17 Portals and Merges - CONCLUSIONS . 59 Potential Causes of Delay . 45 Next Steps . 62 Figure 18 Steps Required at Embarcadero Turnaround . 47 Figure 19 Causes of Transit Delays on City Streets . 48 Figure 20 Foregone Capacity and the ATCS System . 50 Figure 21 Downtown Extension and Regional Connections . 56 Figure 22 Summarizing the System’s Constraints . 60 C CORE CAPACITY TRANSIT STUDY Metropolitan Transportation Commission INTRODUCTION Bay Area residents depend more and more capacity to and from the San Francisco Core. each day on the region’s transit systems. Five While all of these operators are independently main agencies move hundreds of thousands considering various improvements and invest- of people into and out of San Francisco’s Core ments to their respective systems, no study to every day, helping them access the dense job date has brought the major transit operators centers of the Financial District and South together to address this regional issue in a of Market (SoMa) neighborhoods, as well as comprehensive, coordinated manner. the emerging job centers in Mid-Market and The Bay Area Core Capacity Transit Study Mission Bay. Facing increasingly crowded (CCTS) is a collaborative effort by those five conditions in recent years as the region and transit operators, the San Francisco County transit ridership have grown rapidly, our transit Transportation Authority (SFCTA), and the system is challenged to deliver quality service Metropolitan Transportation Commission to riders both now and in the future. (MTC). The project aims to estimate potential The Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART), future demand for travel to and from the San the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Francisco Core and come up with a plan for Agency (SFMTA), AC Transit, Caltrain, and the meeting demand in ways that support sustain- Water Emergency Transportation Authority able economic growth and improve the quality (WETA) are all committed to identifying invest- of life for the region’s residents, visitors, and ments and improvements to increase transit workers. This Briefing Book lays out the facts about land use patterns, ridership trends, and the constraints imposed by existing transit infrastructure serving the San Francisco Core. The book aims to get everyone with an interest in the Bay Area’s economic vitality — and the transit system that enables it — on the same page about key issues the system faces. Working collaboratively, we can have a constructive conversa- tion about potential solutions over the coming months. Image: Flickr user phoca2004 1 BRIEFING BOOK CORE CAPACITY TRANSIT STUDY Metropolitan Transportation Commission Metropolitan Transportation Commission INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION STUDY OVERVIEW The CCTS is a multi-agency study to identify and Specifically, prioritize the major investments needed to serve ▪ Short-term projects are improvements to the growing demand for quality transit service existing infrastructure that can be imple- into the San Francisco Core. Figure 1 shows mented over the next three to five years. the study area, which includes the two primary transit corridors that feed the Core: the Transbay ▪ Medium-term projects are larger improve- Corridor and the San Francisco Metro Corridor. ments that require additional study and will likely take five to 15 years to implement. The study will look at short-, medium-, and long- term investments that can help steadily upgrade ▪ Long-term projects are significant transit the system and keep pace with anticipated investments to serve levels of ridership population growth over the next quarter century. anticipated 20 to 25 years from today and beyond. BART Caltrain MUNI 80 A KEY INPUT TO THE 2017 PLAN BAY AREA UPDATE AC Transit Ferry Berkeley The Core Capacity Transit Study is a parallel ef- use goals and transportation funding priorities fort to Plan Bay Area 2040, a regional long-range for the next 25 years. As an important step planning effort sponsored by the Metropolitan toward funding and implementation, the projects Transportation Commission and the Association developed through the CCTS will be considered of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). Plan Bay for funding and prioritization for the nine-county Area 2040 will update the region’s overall land region. DOR 80 RRI Y CO SBA AN TR Oakland HWY 580 STUDY PARTNERS San Francisco THE CORE The CCTS was established through a charter ▪ Transit operators: San Francisco Municipal Alameda and funding commitments by seven Bay Transportation Agency (SFMTA), Bay Area Area agencies and is also supported by a U.S. Rapid Transit (BART), Alameda-Contra Costa Department of Transportation TIGER grant. The Transit (AC Transit), the Water Emergency seven partner agencies include: Transportation Authority (WETA), and Caltrain HWY 1 HWY ▪ Funding and planning partner: San Francisco ▪ Lead agency: Metropolitan Transportation SAN FRANCISCO HWY 880 METRO County Transportation Authority (SFCTA) HWY 101 Commission (MTC) CORRIDOR Daly City HWY 280 HWY Figure 1 Bay Area Transit Core Capacity Study Area 2 3 BRIEFING BOOK CORE CAPACITY TRANSIT STUDY Metropolitan Transportation Commission Metropolitan Transportation Commission SNAPSHOT: THE SYSTEM TODAY SNAPSHOT: THE SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE The San Francisco Core—the Financial District, This combination of forces has raised demand Addressing the transit system’s capacity limi- various ways to increase capacity in the SoMa, Mission Bay, and the areas around for transit during peak hours much more tations will become more critical as the Core Muni Metro tunnel. them—is the Bay Area’s largest and densest quickly than expected. At the same time, continues to densify. Failing to do so could limit ▪ Once complete, the new Transbay Transit single job center. Rapid housing and employ- aging infrastructure has caused increased the area’s potential to accomodate growth, Center will provide space for a larger fleet ment growth in eastern SoMa, Mission Bay, maintenance issues, exacerbating crowding which would in turn slow the regional economy of transbay buses, and direct access and Mid-Market, as well as increases in the on days when vehicles must be taken out of or push growth to low-density areas on the ramps to and from the freeway will speed number of workers in existing office towers service or infrastructure like tracks and wiring urban fringe. The region anticipates that two those buses on their way. AC Transit is in the historically dense Financial District, has need emergency repairs. Certain aspects of million more people will call the Bay Area home also exploring the potential of double- increased the urgency to improve mobility. the design of the rail networks that serve the by 2040, and many of them are expected decker buses, which would nearly double While much of this growth was planned, it has Core limit the system’s potential capacity, to find housing along the region’s transit bus capacity without taking up any occurred much faster than anticipated. The cause recurring reliability issues, and limit networks, commuting to jobs in the Core. The additional room on the bridge. rapid new development has been the result their ability to be resilient in the face of major region’s land use vision channels thousands of of changing market conditions and prefer- maintenance problems or natural disasters. new housing units and millions of square feet ▪ Caltrain is working to convert from diesel ences, including a rapidly growing economy Buses are limited by the need to contend with of new office space into neighborhoods like to cleaner, faster electric trains, and the and reductions in average office space per traffic on city streets and the Bay Bridge. the Financial District, South of Market, Civic agency plans to extend service further employee. A generational shift in where young Additionally, at current service levels, ferry Center, Market-Octavia,