Transitects Project Alpine Space Project – Cooperation program 2007-2013

Analysis and evaluation of the relationships amongst dryport/freight villages, ports and local economic/industrial patterns in Veneto region

Final report

Project Team:

eng. Vittorio Marzano Ph.D. eng. Roberta Vitillo Ph.D. eng. Paolo Del Gais

prof. Sergio Bologna

Local Area Network S.r.l. dr. Luca Romano dr. Ruggero Barbiero

Release: 2.0 Date: 27/04/2012

Summary 1 Introduction ...... 4 2 Reference scenarios ...... 5 2.1.1 Current scenario ...... 5 2.1.2 Perspective scenarios ...... 6 2.2 Outcomes of the research ...... 7 2.2.1 Reference context of the main issues analyzed in the study ...... 7 2.2.2 A selection of proposals taken into account in the study ...... 8 2.3 Quantitative analysis of freight transport supply and demand ...... 10 2.3.1 Desk analysis ...... 10 2.3.2 Quantitative tools for the simulation of the freight system ...... 12 2.3.3 Analysis of territorial accessibility for Veneto ...... 16 2.4 Methodology for the surveys ...... 17 2.5 Methodology for the analysis of the labour market ...... 19 3 North Adriatic ports ...... 20 3.1 Infrastructural characteristics ...... 20 3.2 Container services ...... 22 3.2.1 Direct services ...... 22 3.2.2 Feeder services ...... 24 3.3 Ro-Ro services...... 26 3.3.1 Ravenna ...... 26 3.3.2 Venice ...... 26 3.3.3 Monfalcone ...... 27 3.3.4 Trieste ...... 27 3.3.5 Koper ...... 29 3.3.6 Rijeka ...... 29 3.3.7 Summary Report ...... 29 3.4 Intermodal rail services ...... 30 3.5 Technical and shipping-oriented services ...... 31 3.6 Port traffics ...... 32 4 Intermodal rail services of the main freight villages in Veneto ...... 37 4.1 Interporto di Padova...... 37 4.2 Interporto di Verona ...... 40 4.3 Interporto di Bologna ...... 40

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4.4 Summary of existing services ...... 41 5 Freight transport demand in Veneto ...... 43 5.1 International trade ...... 43 5.1.1 Transport data in quantity for Italy (national level) ...... 44 5.1.2 Transport data in quantity for Veneto (regional level) ...... 47 5.1.3 Transport data in value for Italy (national level) ...... 50 5.1.4 Transport data in value for Veneto (regional level) ...... 54 5.1.5 Transport data in value for the provinces of Veneto (NUTS3 level) ...... 57 5.1.6 Analysis of trade data disaggregated by mode of transport ...... 60 5.2 National trade ...... 65 6 Perspective analysis of freight flows in Veneto ...... 76 6.1 National freight transport ...... 76 6.1.1 Total trade ...... 76 6.1.2 Railway freight demand ...... 81 6.2 International freight transport ...... 84 6.2.1 Continental trade ...... 85 6.2.2 Intercontinental traffic ...... 90 6.3 Freight villages and logistics regional system ...... 99 6.4 Synthesis ...... 115 7 Analysis of the results of the survey ...... 116 7.1 Survey to industrial/manufacturing companies ...... 117 7.1.1 Reference market ...... 117 7.1.2 Transport organization ...... 118 7.1.3 Warehouse management ...... 122 7.1.4 Current issues and development perspectives ...... 126 7.1.5 Characteristics of the sample ...... 131 7.2 Survey to transport/logistics operators ...... 134 7.2.1 Reference customers and target market ...... 136 7.2.2 Transport organization ...... 140 7.2.3 Warehouse management ...... 144 7.2.4 Current issues and development perspectives ...... 147 7.2.5 Characteristics of the sample ...... 152 8 Analysis of the labour and enterprise markets ...... 154 8.1 Working in the transport and logistics sector in Veneto ...... 154

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8.1.1 The Veneto Lavoro database ...... 154 8.1.2 Results ...... 155 8.2 Warehousing, transport and logistics companies in Veneto ...... 159 8.2.1 General characteristics of the sector ...... 159 8.2.2 Accounting analysis ...... 160 9 Swot analysis ...... 166 10 Policy actions suggested to Veneto Region ...... 168 10.1 Enterprises and market labour in the freight and logistics sectors ...... 168 10.2 Optimization and sustainability of road transport ...... 169 10.3 Rail freight transport perspectives ...... 170 10.4 Infrastructures and coordination in the regional freight system ...... 172 Annex: details about the incentives to rail freight transport ...... 175 A.1 Characteristics of the incentives ...... 175 A.1.1 Ferrobonus ...... 175 A.1.2 LR 15/2009 by Emilia-Romagna Region ...... 175 A.1.3 Combined transport service Napoli-Nola ...... 177 A.2 Conclusions...... 178 A.3 Ex post analysis...... 179

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1 Introduction This report summarizes the activities undertaken so far in order to support the research “Analysis and evaluation of the relationships amongst dryport/freight villages, ports and local economic/industrial patterns in Veneto region” carried out within the Transitects project (Territorial Cooperation - Alpine Space Programme 2007-2013).

In particular, Section 2 summarizes the overall methodological framework of the research, illustrating the areas under analysis, the relevant geographical and temporal contexts, and the expected outcomes. In order to achieve these objectives, different areas of the industrial/productive sector and of the regional logistics and freight transport sectors have been investigated, through a desk analysis based on available databases, a set of surveys specifically carried out for this study and a set of quantitative tools for simulation and forecasting of the whole regional transport system. Therefore, this section describes the databases and the approaches adopted for the analysis of freight transport supply and demand relevant for the Veneto region, the methods adopted for carrying out the surveys and the procedures for the analysis and the evaluation of the regional labour market in the logistics and transport sectors.

In turn, Section 3 presents a summary of the freight demand and supply characteristics (inland and foreland) of the main intermodal ports in the North Adriatic region. Section 4 deals with the intermodal rail freight connections of the main regional dryport/freight villages in Veneto. Section 5 summarizes the key aggregate figures of domestic and international freight demand relevant for Veneto.

Subsequently, the perspective stress test analysis of freight transport relevant for Veneto (Section 6), on the presentation of the results of the surveys to industrial/manufacturing companies and logistics operators (Section 7), and on the analysis of the labour market and of the enterprises in the transport/logistics sector (Section 8), are presented.

After a swot analysis summary (Section 9), the final product of the research is the identification of a set of policy actions to be possibly implemented by Veneto Region in order to increase the competitiveness of the regional logistics platform and to create a multiplier effect on the overall regional industrial system. These actions are summarized for each relevant topic in the final Section 10, while the Annex reports some details related to the issue of the incentives for freight rail transport.

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2 Reference scenarios

2.1.1 Current scenario The first phase of the study involved a thorough analysis of the current scenario, articulated into the following topics:

• traffic data related to relevant freight villages and ports, and to the relationship amongst them, based on demand/supply data sources available at regional, national and international level, specific datasets available to the project team, data collected through direct surveys at intermodal and transport nodes. Data were collected in terms of time series, including at least the last 5 years when possible, disaggregated by mode of transport and/or by commodity class (normally in accordance with the NST/R 1-digit commodity nomenclature), and by relevant characteristics of the goods (e.g. containerization); • analysis of direct and feeder container maritime services and Ro-Ro services for each of the ports of the NAPA, and analysis of the intermodal rail connections of freight villages and ports relevant for the Veneto region; • recognition of the technical and functional specialization of each logistics node (e.g. for freight villages, classification accordingly with the possible presence of gateway functions, origin/destination flows, distripark functions, inland terminal functions). Analysis of the business relationships between ports and freight villages in Veneto and, more generally, in their overall areas of influence, taking into account both horizontal and vertical integration; • analysis of the economic and logistics/transport characteristics of the regional industrial reference context, with particular emphasis on the following commodities: mechanical, metal products, optics and electronics, textiles and clothing, jewelery, furniture and furnishings, leather products and leather, rubber chemicals and plastics, transport, agriculture and food products, nonmetallic minerals, paper and printing; • analysis of current real estate logistics market, with the aim of characterizing the position of the freight villages in terms of pure logistics infrastructures within the regional market.

For this aim, in addition to the above mentioned databases and desk reviews, a specific survey was designed and carried out, aimed at analyzing the characteristics of current and prospective business of the freight villages and of their interactions with the territory, together with the analysis of the willingness of the regional industrial system to be integrated with the overall logistics and freight system. The survey focused on three categories of respondents: the management company of the freight villages, of the ports and other public/private relevant actors and stakeholders; companies and enterprises in the freight and logistics sectors; small and medium/large industrial and manufacturing companies. The subjects under investigation were also consistent with the critical issues and the corresponding proposals briefly mentioned in Section 2.3, and the evaluation of the results of the survey allowed characterizing more effectively the operational actions to be translated into policies for the Veneto Region.

Furthermore, using also a quantitative approach based on a model that simulates the whole multimodal freight transport system in the Euro-Mediterranean basin, available to the project team, the current basins of the NAPA cluster and of the regional intermodal system have been investigated, through drawing appropriate accessibility curves. In particular, taking advantage of the capabilities of the GIS tools, each intermodal node is associated with relevant isochrones of active and passive accessibility, and in turn the relevant territorial and socio-economic characteristics within each isochrone have been determined. This

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allows characterizing more properly the regional positioning and the possible functional specialization of each node.

2.1.2 Perspective scenarios The second phase of the study has a twofold objective: firstly, define two perspective scenarios of for the overall freight and logistics network in the Veneto, and proceed to the related stress test analysis based on future supply and demand forecasts; secondly, summarize the findings of the first phase into a package of regional policy guidelines aimed at optimizing the interaction between the industrial and the transport systems in Veneto.

For this aim, the analyses and the results obtained for the current scenario have been firstly used as a basis for a projection to the short/medium term, so as to draw a tendency scenario underlying a proper analysis of the stress test of the logistics network and the subsequent planning initiatives in the region. Such tendency scenario is built primarily on both the supply side and demand side.

From the supply side, this scenario is characterized by assumptions about the competition between ports, about the development of road and rail networks, the strategies of the shipping companies. This is particularly important in the context of intermodal rail traffic because, for example, if the transshipment is expected to play a different role with respect to the current structure of maritime services, the direct distribution will be increasingly relevant for ports, i.e. more inland traffic will be generated by the higher number of direct calls of deep sea services. In practice, this may lead the local industrial system to structurally change its relationships with the various relevant port clusters (North Adriatic Sea, Tyrrhenian Sea, Northern Range).

From the demand side, a log-linear gravity model is applied, which encompasses explanatory variables related to the characteristics of the transport system, together with economic and geopolitical variables for the relevant zones within the Euro-Mediterranean basin. For this aim, proper projections of GDP and of the distribution of economic activities have been performed, and the update of the supply characteristics of the transport system are calculated on the basis of the multimodal supply model mentioned above.

This tendency scenario is then the kernel of the evaluation leading to the stress tests of the regional logistics network in Veneto, which is therefore performed by taking into account the trends in demand and supply of transport, in terms of infrastructure and services. The stress tests of the logistics network has also been enriched by the findings of a special SP (Stated Preferences) part of the survey in which, through specific questions to respondents (relevant actors and stakeholders, firms, logistics operators), their willingness to interact in a stronger way with the freight villages and their perception of an enhanced integrated regional/transport system have been evaluated as well.

Finally, by combining the findings of the desk analysis and of the survey with the freight transport system model for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, it was possible to associate a current catchment area for each relevant intermodal node, corresponding to the markets actually served, and a potential catchment area under the assumption of ideal competition conditions from the transport supply side. The comparison between the two basins (current and potential) allows verifying directly the actual market penetration of the intermodal node under analysis, and also allows quantifying the potential demand attractable. Notably, it also allows checking the consistency of the results achieved by other relevant studies in the area (e.g. Scenari Adriatici, MDS Transmodal for NAPA ports, NEA study on the core network of European ports).

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2.2 Outcomes of the research The final product of research is represented by the identification of policy actions implementable by Veneto Region for enhancing the activities of the overall regional logistics platform, in order to create a possible multiplicative effect on the industrial system in Veneto. These actions are therefore summarized as guidelines for the governance of regional logistics, within a wider strategic framework. Indeed, they have been prepared on the basis of the results of analyses of the current scenario and of the perspective scenarios, and have been tested for compatibility and integration with policies already expressed by Veneto Region. In particular, they refer to the following topics:

• achieving a greater coordination between ports and container; • protection of the existing intermodal structure from the competition by new intermodal platforms built closely to ports and freight villages, in absence of an overall regional planning strategy; • how to react on the different perspectives of development of maritime traffics in the Northern Adriatic port cluster; • identify the main user needs of the regional productive system towards the development of an increased transport supply and distribution network; • how to optimize the interaction with the real estate logistics market; • how to cope with the dynamics of the labour market in the field of transport, logistics and warehousing; • what to do in a future where the component of sustainability will be crucial in the assessment of the quality and of the competitiveness of logistics services.

A summary of the most remarkable issues and of the corresponding policy actions proposed in response by this research is proposed in the next subsections.

2.2.1 Reference context of the main issues analyzed in the study In general, the historical model of the Italian “logistics district” is in constant decline, replaced by a system of interconnected logistics networks with international standards, only partially related to the specific characteristics of the territory. This circumstance has significantly changed the real estate logistics market, nowadays characterized by the significant presence of big players and by a remarkable decrease in rent prices, i.e. a “low-cost” logistics real estate possible also as a consequence of wrong and myopic planning policies from the relevant public bodies. In addition, the construction of new major infrastructures (e.g. the new Mestre turnpike) and the land saturation of some areas, not only around the main regional cities but also in the surroundings of cities such as Verona and Padova, has reshaped substantially the land use patterns, leading to new hierarchies of facility locations. In spite of the setback in the fall of warehouses’ rents, and notwithstanding the tailor-made nature of most of the new investments towards emerging market trends, this led to a risky situation of duplications in the areas of interest of regional dryports, with negative consequences for the profitability of past and future public investments.

At the same time, the intermodal railway market faced an unprecedented downturn: the overall domestic traffic in Italy fell from 36 to 26 million tons/year (-30%) from 2007 to 2009, due to both intrinsic demand reduction and supply shrink. Trenitalia Cargo, the former public national incumbent operator, has been reducing its market shares since 2007, focusing its operations on few strategic o-d pairs mainly in the North, whilst a lot of competitors increased at the same time their market shares from 7% in 2007 to 15% in 2010. However, there is no clear view of the future market structure at the end of such process of reorganization, nor it is clear whether a new intermodal operator will emerge as a main player. The

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international railway market is more dynamic, with the majority of routes to/from the Central/Eastern Europe, wherein the presence of major international operators (Trenitalia Cargo has a less than 50% market share on such routes) leads to a substantial marginalization of the intermodal nodes south of Verona. The Eastern European market offers interesting perspectives of growth. In any case, half of the overall railway Italian freight (traditional and/or combined) is linked to port traffics, even though in a context often characterized by infrastructural and organizational bottlenecks, which makes railway not competitive with respect to road. In addition, an holistic planning strategy for the enhancement of the regional network of intermodal terminals is missing, leading to the presence of large private terminals in close proximity to the public dryports, i.e. without an overall plan of rationalization. However, the traditional (i.e. non containerized) rail traffics to/from the port of Venice are - given the general Italian context - satisfactory, whilst the intermodal rail traffic is very marginal, due to the short distances to/from the final origins/destinations terminal which make the road transport much more competitive.

In order to face an international competitive environment and increase their market positioning, the ports in the Northern Adriatic cluster in 2010 established the North-Adriatic Ports Association (NAPA). However, within NAPA a remarkable inner competition still remains, e.g. in terms of port dues and of development projects for container trade. Notably, the establishment of the NAPA impacts somehow on the planning/governance activities of all the relevant involved public bodies (regions, national governments), which should now account for a wider and more complex coordination in the logistics and freight sectors, e.g. in the process of funding assignment for new infrastructures related to ports and inland connections. Specifically, this implies having a clear overview of the potential basin of the overall NAPA range, in terms of geographical coverage and potentially attracted demand: relevant studies have been already promoted for this aim.

In terms of connections between ports and inland terminals, the dryports normally follow the natural strategy of looking for a stricter integration with the ports, not only because of their potential generation capability of traffics, but also for the role that the dryports may play for the relevant supply chains for the ports. Paradoxically, in the current scenario there are remarkable freight flows between the regional dryports in Veneto and far ports in the Northern Range and into the Tyrrhenian arc: the only effective integration with local ports is related to the repositioning of empty containers in Padova. Notwithstanding, the other regional dryports may reveal an effective function of intermodal inland terminals, helping therefore the ports to increase the coverage of their target basin. On the other hand, the regional dryports have not established yet a significant process of specialization and functional integration within a single “regional dryports” scheme. They have actually started acting together as a system (with a cooperation extended also to the dryport of Bologna in Emilia-Romagna region) mainly in reaction and relation to the activities of NAPA, but not leading yet to a real and tangible value multipliers for the overall system of dryports.

2.2.2 A selection of proposals taken into account in the study The main outcome of the TRANSITECTS projects for Veneto Region may be identified as a set of policy initiatives, integrated within the wider regional planning and governance strategy for the freight and logistics sectors, aimed ad optimizing the overall regional logistics platform.

Planning oriented to technical/economic and environmental sustainability.

From a general standpoint, a greater coordination is needed between policy and planning actions at the regional and supra-regional levels, together with a renewed awareness of the context in which the new

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infrastructures will be built, i.e. avoiding dangerous duplications for the territory and for the economy. For the logistics real estate market, the demand is now strongly oriented towards leading edge warehouses and infrastructures in a scenario of essentially stable prices: however, from one side, the Veneto Region should allow new developments in relevant market areas and should discourage dangerous and unsustainable duplications of already existing warehousing/logistics facilities, from the other side the freight villages and the existing intermodal nodes should review their market positioning and perform the necessary refurbishment activities where needed. In general, Veneto Region is active in the process of estimating the target basins and the market catchment of its overall regional logistics platform and of each component node (ports, dryports, inland terminals, and so on). In particular, the built of new facilities for logistics warehousing and for intermodal transport should be carefully evaluated so as to avoid absolutely any overlaps with existing similar infrastructures, in order to minimize the negative effects due to the lack of coordination. Finally, investments in new road and rail infrastructures are going to be carefully assessed in order to be prioritized with respect to their multiplier impact on the overall regional logistics platform.

Incentives for rail transport and role of the freight villages.

In this context, regional incentives towards intermodal rail transport could be used for attracting a significant share of freight demand towards rail intermodal transport, provided that they are encompassed in long-term financed programs with certain and clear definition of the entity and of the duration of the contribution. In fact, this may represent an effective driver able to convince new operators to enter the market. In parallel, the identification of possible sustainable planning actions, devoted to the promotion of intermodal transport through cross-actions on road transport (e.g. improvement in vehicle load factors, reduction of empty trips and miles traveled, prosecuting dumping), is under investigation. Finally, a facilitation process towards a synergic coordination among regional dryports and between them and Veneto Region – aimed at strengthen their key role in the reprise of intermodal rail transport – has been started.

Coordination and functional specialization of the system of regional freight villages.

One possible option is to support the creation of an equivalent of the NAPA for regional dryports, maybe extended also to relevant analogous facilities in neighboring regions (e.g. Interporto Bologna), so as to promote common synergies joint strategies to face and address the issues described above. This requires a parallel and consistent definition of the relevant business areas for each dryport. In that respect, dryports oriented to intermodal rail transport should act as a whole, possibly promoting the establishment of new intermodal rail operators so as to create a critical mass for capturing demand segments otherwise inaccessible. This is what Interporto di Padova is trying to develop, and another relevant model at national level is represented by the railway operator ISC (Interporto Servizi Cargo) owned by Interporto Campano in Nola (Napoli).

Promotion of the connections between the system of ports and the system of freight villages.

Maritime traffics and dryports should be jointly treated as part of a common system, and therefore promoted and supported in an holistic view. Containerized maritime flows in the Northern Adriatic cluster exhibit remarkable perspectives of growth, however a necessary condition for this aim is the implementation of an adequate and effective network of freight services and connections both on the landside and on the seaside. In that respect, intermodal rail traffic should be encouraged further from regional dryports towards Northern European and Eastern European destinations, so as to enlarge the

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market view not only in the light of shipping companies, but also towards final customers, which perceive the overall origin-destination cost and not just the maritime rate.

Territorial marketing of logistics and freight transport.

In addition, in coordination and synergy with the above mentioned coordination actions, Veneto Region should implement effective regional marketing initiatives to promote the coordination and the development of its regional logistics platform.

2.3 Quantitative analysis of freight transport supply and demand

2.3.1 Desk analysis Several databases, survey, existing models, other recent relevant studies have been taken into account for carrying out the study, with reference to both the transport/logistics system and the industrial system. Used datasets are based on both free-of-charge available data sources and proprietary data available to the project team.

In particular, with reference to the freight transport objectives of the study, mai reference was made to the following data related to freight demand:

• national-based freight matrices provided by EUROSTAT reporting trade between each of the EU27 Countries and each Country in the world, in tons/year and in TEUs/year by commodity group (NC2 classification) and possibly transport mode, since 2001; • freight national and international matrices in tons/year at NUTS3 geographical level (provinces in Italy) for the entire Euro-Mediterranean Basin and for North Europe, disaggregated by commodity group (NST/R 1-digit classification) and by mode of transport, up to 2010; • annual traffic in TEU (split by import/export and transshipment) for the main container terminals of the Mediterranean basin and of the Northern Range, for the period 1990-2011; • national and international rail freight traffic in tons/year and trains/year provided for year 2007 from the incumbent Italian freight railway operator; • modal split (road/rail in inbound/outbound) for the inland traffic generated by Northern Adriatic ports and by the main ports of the Northern Range (coverage variable between 2007 and 2010); • traffic data on the Italian national highway network, provided by AISCAT and by Autostrade per l’Italia for the whole period 1998-2009, and on the network of Veneto (SIRSE database, updated on average to year 2009), expressed in terms of ADT by type of vehicle; • traffic data for ports and freight villages in the North-East of Italy, for the period 2007-2010, expressed in tons/year, trains/year (if applicable) and possibly disaggregated by commodity; • demand and supply transport databases embedded within the Euro-Mediterranean system of models available to the project team and specifically used for this study.

The aforementioned databases were specifically adapted and updated as much as possible, in order to support effectively the quantitative side of the TRANSITECTS research.

Still with reference to the transport side of the study, further reference was made to a series of datasets related to the characteristics of the relevant freight supply network. In particular, in order to support the market positioning analysis of ports and freight villages in Veneto within the international context, and in order to verify the degree of international integration of the industrial system of the region, a specific review of maritime services (container and Ro-Ro) and intermodal rail services in the NAPA ports and in the

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relevant inland ports was carried out. In particular, all significant intermodal rail services with both national and international origin/destination related to the geographical area of the Italian North-East have been taken into account, with a temporal coverage over several years, so as to identify basic trends affecting freight distribution across Alpine passes.

Many different databases and data sources have been therefore checked for the identification of those services, linked both to nodes (port authorities, management companies of freight villages) and operators (shipping companies, railway companies and multimodal operators). An accurate process of data coordination, integration and harmonization has been then performed, leading to a database updated at February 2012. Notably, a comparison/integration with existing studies (Scenari Adriatici, SEGESTA) carried out, and a careful review was provided by relevant experts and stakeholders involved in the surveying process.

Various studies related to logistical aspects of the territory and/or dealing with industry trends were also gathered from the technical literature and from sector journals (eg. Giornale della logistica, Logistica, Logistica Management).

Finally, with reference to the socio-economic and territorial analyses, the following database have been taken into account:

• total and per capita GDP in value up to 2011 for NUTS2/NUTS3 areas in the Euro-Mediterranean basin; • detailed data on logistics real estate in Veneto and in Northern Italy; • infrastructural and organizational data related to freight villages and ports of the North-East Italy; • number of enterprises established by municipality in Veneto, disaggregated by category, turnover class, year of foundation, number of employees.

By way of an example, the following Figure 1 shows a graphic representation of the number of employees in the warehousing and logistics sectors for year 2009 (source: database ASIA from ISTAT), represented by a scale of colors, and the number of medium/large third party warehouses and distribution centers and CEDI for each municipality in Veneto, represented by red dots.

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Figure 1 - Example of GIS spatial data collected for the study: number of employees in the areas of warehousing and logistics (source ASIA 2009) and number of medium/large 3PL and CEDI warehouses/logistics centers by municipality

2.3.2 Quantitative tools for the simulation of the freight system The quantitative analyses presented in the study have been carried out by means of a GIS-based quantitative tool encompassing a system of mathematical models – developed in accordance with the state of the art of the Transport Engineering – for the simulation of the whole transport system in the Euro- Mediterranean basin. Such tool has a twofold application: in the current scenario, it allows disaggregating and analysing supply and demand data with a higher level of resolution with respect to the available datasets; in the perspective scenarios, it allows quantifying changes in freight supply performance depending on new projects and plans from one side and, from the other side, also changes in freight demand due to both changes in transport supply and in socio-economic and territorial characteristics. In detail (Figure 2), the quantitative tool encompasses models and methods for simulating the performances (times, fares, generalized transport costs) of the freight supply system of infrastructures and services (supply model), models and methods for estimating freight transport demand (demand model), and models for simulating the interaction between transport supply and demand in order to calculate network flows and related external impacts (assignment and impact models).

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national level

ISTAT NATIONAL MACROECONOMIC SUPPLY SCENARIOS MODEL MRIO EUROSTAT FUTURE TRENDS MODEL

NATIONAL FOREIGN FREIGHT FUTURE NATIONAL FUTURE FOREIGN FREIGHT DEMAND DEMAND BY FREIGHT DEMAND FREIGHT DEMAND BY REGION REGION BY REGION BY REGION

MODE CHOICE

Euro-Mediterranean level regional level (Veneto)

DISAGGREGATION IN ROAD, RAIL AND SEA O-D SUPPLY MODEL ZONES WITHIN VENETO MATRIX AT EURO- FOR VENETO MEDITERRANEAN LEVEL

OD FREIGHT EURO- MATRICES FOR ASSIGNMENT VENETO BY MODE MEDITERRANEAN SUPPLY MODEL

NETWORK ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT FLOWS FREIGHT FLOWS

Figure 2 – Scheme of the system of mathematical models used for the freight supply and demand analyses both in the current scenario and in the perspective scenarios

It is important to emphasize that the analyses required by the current study implied adopting different spatial scales. For example, the analysis of the catchment areas of ports and freight villages can be conducted only on the basis of an Euro-Mediterranean area of study that integrates at least all the major European Countries relevant for freight flows to/from Veneto. Similarly, the analysis of the accessibility of intermodal nodes within the regional industrial context requires a detailed regional focus within the Veneto region. Consistently, a base model for the whole Euro-Mediterranean area available at the project team has been used for all the analyses at international level, whilst a specific particularization to the national and regional context has been performed in order to support the more local evaluations of the study.

Looking in more detail to the Euro-Mediterranean model, the study area comprises the 27 EU Member States, all non-EU members European Countries and other relevant Countries in the Middle East as well as Northern African countries bordering the Mediterranean basin, for a total of 57 States. The zonization is at the NUTS3 level for all EU Member States (corresponding to the provinces for Italy) and at the level NUTS1/NUTS2 for the remaining, for a total of 1508 areas. Such study area, covering the entire Euro- Mediterranean region, allows simulating future scenarios covering wide economic and political policies (e.g. greater integration between EU and the North African and Balkan areas). Trade from/to the rest of the world is represented through two centroids at the border of the study area, respectively at the Suez Canal (for Asian routes) and outside the Strait of Gibraltar (for the Atlantic routes). Furthermore, for the application of the gravity demand model (see below) the rest of the world is divided into twenty main world economic zones. Within the study area previously defined, a supply model has been implemented,

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encompassing four different modes for road networks, rail, maritime and inland waterways respectively, properly integrated within a multimodal approach so as to model effectively intermodal transport chains. By way of an example, the graphical level of detail of the overall supply model is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 – Detail of the overall multimodal supply model at Euro-Mediterranean scale used by the project team for the study

Consistent with the study area and with the corresponding detail of zonization, a mathematical model for the estimation of freight transport demand is available for the entire Euro-Mediterranean basin, properly segmented by mode of transport, type of unit load and commodity class. This model consists of a gravity model for the calculation of total freight flows and of a mode choice model for splitting the total freight flows among the different modes of transport available for each o-d pair. In particular, the gravity model provides total o-d matrices for several commodities at national level, calibrated on the basis of trade flows data supplied by EUROSTAT (COMEXT database), with reference to trade to/from EU27 Member States, and by WITS (UNCTAD TRAINS database), with reference to trade to/from other States in the study area. Those databases have been integrated and are further disaggregated in zones within the national level (the so-called provincialization) based on ISTAT, EUROSTAT, Arab Monetary Fund data and other data sources. At a glance, Table 1 describes aggregately the data sources used for covering the whole o-d matrices underlying the demand model. As a result, flow data are available in value and quantity, with a level of disaggregation by commodity consistent with the NST/R 2-digit classification for non-EU countries and with a further detailed classification for the EU countries and for Italy.

Table 1 – Structure of the demand databases for o-d estimation at Euro-Mediterranean scale

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EU resto del mondo regioni italiane altri paesi regioni italiane ISTAT * ISTAT COEWEB ISTAT COEWEB EUROSTAT EUROSTAT EU altri paesi ISTAT COEWEB (INTRASTAT ) (COMEXT ) UNCTAD UNCTAD EUROSTAT resto del mondo ISTAT COEWEB (COMEXT ) UNCTAD UNCTAD

* with specific ad hoc calculations based on available data.

Finally, the overall NUTS3 freight matrices by commodity provided by the gravity model and by the provincialization procedure are then entered into the mode choice model and finally assigned to the corresponding supply model.

Subsequently, for a more effective characterization of the freight trade patterns within Italy (i.e. analysis of national flows with both internal origin and destination) a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model available to the project team has been applied. This makes possible to calculate changes in freight demand between Italian regions, accounting for specific differential changes in regional GDP and other relevant socio-economic variables.

Finally, in order to simplify simulations requiring a transport analysis at the regional level1 only, the Euro- Mediterranean and national models have been adapted to the particular context of analysis of Veneto from both the demand and the supply side, that is:

• from the demand side, for each commodity category and for each mode of transport, all provincial demand flows related to provinces in Veneto (i.e. intra-regional provincial flows and flows between provinces in Veneto and extra-regional destinations) were disaggregated by the Veneto side, consistent with a zonization at the municipality level; • from the supply side, the Euro-Mediterranean road model has been integrated for the area of Veneto by means of a much more detailed topological model, consistent with the greater level of detail of zoning at the municipality level (Figure 4).

Moreover, a specific road freight matrix for the Veneto region has been obtained by “cutting” the whole Euro-Mediterranean matrix through a so-called process of cordon matrix.

1 For instance, the calculation of accessibility over a congested network, see Section 3.3. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 15

Figure 4 – Example of the regional transport supply model (detail of the area of Venice and Padua)

2.3.3 Analysis of territorial accessibility for Veneto The road supply model described in the previous Section 3.2 allows drawing specific territorial accessibility maps, in order to highlight the critical connections between each regional localization (municipality and/or census zone) from one side and, from the other side, other relevant locations such as freight villages and dryports, intermodal nodes, logistics facilities and so on. In particular, it is possible to define a territorial accessibility with respect to each internal destination in Veneto (i.e. based on travel times between each pair of zones within the region) and an accessibility with respect to the transport nodes relevant for extra- regional trade (i.e. based on travel times between each zone and each relevant transport node). Notably, the first accessibility identifies the quality of the connections of each zone with the region and therefore the level of performances in reaching other internal destinations, whilst the second qualifies the ease of an area to reach markets outside the region or to be supplied from the outside.

An example of an accessibility map is shown in Figure 5, showing the accessibility of each active census zone of the Veneto, measured in terms of minutes of travel times by road for a heavy vehicle (accounting for road congestion) towards the closest intermodal terminals, freight villages, ports and airports in the region Veneto.

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Figure 5 – Example of map of active accessibility of the census zones of Veneto towards the three closest transport nodes (intermodal terminals, dryports, ports, airports) within the region 2.4 Methodology for the surveys Three different surveys have been specifically designed for the study, specifically devoted to:

• experts, relevant stakeholders and actors of the system; • transport and logistics operators, operating both within and outside the main regional freight nodes; • industrial/manufacturing company and enterprises.

This approach made possible to interview an heterogeneous mix of actors involved both in the supply chain and production sectors. Attention was specifically focused therefore both on the key decision makers in the production/distribution chain, i.e. on the subjects able to guide the choice of a location of a logistics facility together with its physical structure and organization, and on the industrial/production companies in terms of critical issues and opportunities in the use of the regional logistics platform. However, the survey also accounted for the strategic variables considered by the logistics and transport operators which, although not being decision makers in the supply chain, express user needs to the territory in terms of peculiarities in the layout of the warehouses and of the logistics area, potentially contrastable with the supply of the regional freight villages. Finally, the same survey also took into account the strategies of the management companies of the freight villages, in order to verify the compatibility of their business models with the market requirements from one side and the policy developments envisaged by the Veneto Region on the other side.

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The aim of the survey was therefore to investigate what the main logistics operators and the regional industrial actors are expecting from the development of an overall regional logistic network, and contemporarily which functions and facilities can be offered currently and in perspective by the relevant logistic nodes, both standalone and in synergy so as to create proper value multipliers.

The practical implementation of the survey required the adoption of a mix of three surveying methods: PAPI, CATI and CAWI. The PAPI methodology (face-to-face survey recorded on digital media) was used to collect information from relevant opinion leaders and stakeholders, being appropriate for interviews based on a "track" of topics/issues/proposals that have been touched along a nonlinear path during the evolution of the interview. Indeed, a methodology of this type is recommended in situations where open questions are envisaged, therefore with the opportunity to gather much more information than a survey with closed questions. The CATI methodology (telephone survey) and CAWI (web-based survey platform) were used simultaneously to investigate the viewpoint of the economic/industrial actors with reference to their current and perspective opportunities and issues in interacting with the regional transport system.

In particular, following the CATI and CAWI methodologies along the trace of ad hoc designed questionnaires, the following aspects were specifically surveyed:

• organization of activities; • target markets; • prevailing freight organization and mode(s) of transport used; • warehouse management; • relationships with the transport infrastructures in the region; • assessment of the logistical facilities of the region; • strategies to be adopted, and possibility of collaborating with other companies.

An overall sample of 1.000 enterprises was selected, made up by two different subsets:

• 500 companies disaggregated by commodity sector and by province of activity, so as to obtain a representative sample of the manufacturing sector in the Veneto region. According to the ATECO 2007 classification, the companies belonging to the manufacturing sector were taken into consideration, i.e. those registered within the Chamber of Commerce register with a code in between 10.00.0 and 31.00.0 (included); • a further sub-sample of 200 medium/large manufacturing firms, i.e. with at least 20 workers or with a yearly turnover of a least 1 Million Euro, was selected again with codes in between 10.00.0 and 31.00.0 included; • 300 transport/logistics operators and service providers (carriers, freight forwarders, logistics providers), identified by an ATECO 2007 code activity from 49.00.0 and 53.20.0 included2.

Taking into account the sample dimension of 1.000 respondents, stratified by province, size and sector, a good coverage of the target universe was obtained, with a statistical margin of sampling error of less than 3,5%. Furthermore, whilst the 500 manufacturing companies were selected stratified by province and commodity class (food, clothing, textile and tanning, furnitures, chemicals, plastics, glass, paper, metal and products metal, electrical and electronics, machinery and mechanical) with a stratified random selection process, the 200 medium/large manufacturing companies were sampled randomly from the overall

2 Companies operating in passenger transport were obviously excluded from the survey. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 18

universe. However, it still represents a suitable and statistically significant structured focus on the business of this type of enterprises.

A web platform was launched at the beginning of the survey, so that any respondent – after an initial telephone contact – may directly answer the questionnaire (via login and password) at any time, and find information about the survey sample as an alternative to the telephone survey. An on-line help was also available, in addition an help-desk phone was activated for assisting the usage of the platform (which is however extremely user-friendly). A recall was performed throughout all the potential respondent which agreed to the survey but did not have still completed the questionnaire.

Obviously, some factors may interfere with the quality of the overall survey, e.g. the unwillingness or inability of firms to respond in a timely fashion or difficulties in finding the right answerer within an organization, leading to an investigated sample practically different of the one theoretically designed. Although only very small differences in the distribution of the theoretical and of the practical sample were detected, proper correction weights have been adopted however, so as to provide for an exact match between the two distributions. Finally, it should be also underlined that the adoption of CAWI and CATI survey methodologies ensure the continuous monitoring of the quality and of the consistency of the answers, providing compulsory streams that must be followed in completing the survey. Therefore, errors arising from non-responses are avoided a priori.

2.5 Methodology for the analysis of the labour market The characteristics of the companies in the transport and logistics sectors operating in the Veneto region and the corresponding trends of the related labour market have been specifically analysed within this research, in accordance with the overall framework described in Section 2.1. In particular, the study on the companies covered the following topics:

• market analysis of transport, warehousing and logistics companies through the latest available company reports, in order to update the historical analysis provided by Confetra until 2007; • checking the trends – through the ASIA database managed by the Camere di Commercio – of the turnover and the size of firms in the Veneto, in comparison with the segment of the transport and logistics companies; • gathering information about companies’ openings and closures during the economic downturn cycle, based on the register of companies maintained by Unioncamere; • analysis (possibly disaggregated in the deepest way) of the tendency of the market of the bank credits to enterprises; • information on corporate crises provided monthly by Veneto Lavoro; • collection of studies by the Fondazione Nord Est and by the research centre Aaster of Milan; • Information on the overall current feelings in the sector and on the future perspectives, coming from the surveys (Section 4).

With reference to the analysis of the labour market, the starting point is represented by the ad hoc data processing carried out by Veneto Lavoro on the basis of the compulsory communications made by the enterprises to the Centri per l’impiego (employment centres), that is: stocks and flows of workforce in transport, storage and logistics, with a breakdown by type of contracts, gender, age, country of origin of registrations and cancellations. The results were then integrated with a specific survey to relevant trade unions.

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3 North Adriatic ports

3.1 Infrastructural characteristics From an infrastructural standpoint, the five ports of the NAPA - North Adriatic Port Association (Ravenna, Venice, Trieste, Koper and Rijeka) are substantially heterogeneous, with a remarkable tendency towards a functional specialization of each port3.

For the purposes of this study, it is worth evidencing the main characteristics and differences among the areas specifically dedicated from each port for container handling and management, summarized at a glance in the following Table 2.

3 The NAPA website (http://www.portsofnapa.com/) points out Ravenna as the ideal dry bulk port, Venice as the top port for break bulk and project cargo, whilst Trieste, Koper and Rijeka are not explicitly characterized from a functional standpoint. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 20

Table 2 – Comparison of the infrastructural characteristics of the terminal containers of the NAPA ports (updated March 2012)

Venezia *** Ravenna * Trieste Koper Rijeka VECON TIV Berth length (m) 640 852 1060 770 596 460 Maximum depth (m) 9,6 10,6 10,5 17,4 11,4 11,7 4 gantry cranes panamax 2 gantry cranes post panamax 7 gantry cranes post panamax 4 gantry cranes post panamax Number of cranes 1 mobile crane panamax 4 gantry cranes panamax 3 mobile cranes panamax 4 gantry cranes panamax 4 gantry cranes panamax Terminal area (square meters) 300.000 300.000 149.000 400.000 300.000 150.000 Annual declared throughput (TEU) 300.000 450.000 300.000 700.000 700.000 170.000 2011 traffics (TEU) 198.000 233.000 160.000 393.000 590.000 151.000 Terminal congestion ratio 66% 52% 53% 56% 84% 89% Number of rail tracks within the terminal 5 of 420 m 4 of 400 m 6 5 of 600 m 2 of 671 m, 1 da 647 m 1 of 420 m + 12 tracks station 1) Development of a general cargo 1) Expansion of the current Brajdica terminal with the possibility of terminal already funded to build 1) Project for the construction of a new integration / merging of the piers V and additional 330 meters of quay with a 1) Construction of a container terminal in the Monte-Syndial area in Marghera terminal extension in the TCR area. VI. depth of 14.5 meters, 70000 square 2) Creation of a new container terminal with an attached distripark (quay of 1) Extension of the existing terminal at Development Plan (funded) from 2012 2) Expansion of the Molo VII to meters of new terminal and 4 tracks of 1.500 m with 10.000 sq m warehouse to handle up to 1 MTEUs) Pier I and Pier II to 2014 for 154 M €, which includes the increase capacity up to 1 million TEUs. 420 meters. Declared development plans 3) Construction of a new terminal at Fusina for Motorways of the Sea 2) Construction of a new terminal at lower depths of up to 11.50 meters in 3) Implementation of the new Pier VIII 2) Construction of a new terminal at 4) Creation of an offshore platform (Terminal offshore) off the mouth of Pier III devoted entirely to handling places. of over 900.000 square meters and Zagreb pier with 680 meters of quay in Malamocco (seabed at -20 m). containers 2) Design of interventions to bring the depths of up to 18 m. two stages with a depth of 18 meters 5) up to depths of -12 m of the channels of entrance to the harbor. depth to -14.50 meters. 4) Construction of a new terminal Ro / and 250.00 square meters of terminal. Ro in the southern part of the harbor The total capacity of the terminal will for more than four large vessels come up to 1 MTEUs Direct access to A4 highway (E70). link to A13 and A14 highways through Direct connection to A1 motorway Characteristics of the road connections direct access to A4 highway (E70) Direct connection to Slovenian A1 Direct connection to E71 suburban network partly congested (E61/E70) highway through two junctions single-track electrified branch, single-track electrified branch towards two-tracks electrified branch towards different electrification systems two-tracks electrified branch, max train Divaca e Sezana, max train length 550 Characteristics of the rail connections ** RFI and FER networks, max train length two-tracks electrified branch, max train length 550 m, max train weight 1600 t towards Slovenia and Hungary/Serbia, length 550 m, max train weight 1600 t m, max train weight 1300 t (slope just 530 m, max train weight 1300 t max train length 500 m, max train outside the port) weight 1300 t Container terminal management company 70% Sapir, 30% Contship PSA Mariner Spa / Marinvest Spa T.O. Delta Luka Koper Spa 51% ICTSI, 49% Adriatic Gate

Source: MDS Transmodal, websites of Port Authorities, website of container terminal operators * Data are referred to Terminal Container Ravenna (TCR). The multipurpose terminal Setramar handled in year 2011 about 16000 TEU. ** Length and weight limits are referred to the network in proximity of the port and not to the possibly relevant international routes. *** The port of Venezia is the only with potential access to inland wateray networks.

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3.2 Container services

3.2.1 Direct services Up to the first half of year 2011, two direct container services were available between NAPA ports and the Far East (Table 3). As reported by MDS Transmodal, the first service, jointly operated by CMA-CGM and Maersk, started in the second half of 2009 with calls firstly at Trieste and Koper and then with a further call at Rijeka added by the end of 2009, leading to the overall following sequence of calls: Tanjung Pelepas, Chiwan, Hong Kong, Pusan, Shanghai, Singapore, Port Klang, Jeddah, Port Said, Damietta, Rijeka, Koper, Trieste, Piraeus and return to the Far East. The related ships have a capacity of about 6.500 TEUs and are not compatible with the structures and the technical characteristics of the ports of Ravenna and Venice. The second service, operated by a joint of Hanjin, Yang Ming and UASC Hyundai was launched in the second half of 2010, using ships with an average capacity of 4.500 TEUs, with a roundtrip calling the ports of Singapore, Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai, Pusan, Hong Kong, Colombo, Port Said, El Dhakeila, Mersin, Koper, Rjieka, Trieste, Venice and back.

Table 3 – Direct services between NAPA ports and Far East: called ports and weekly capacity offered (period: 2010 – first 2011 half, provided by MDS Transmodal)

The Hanjin, Yang Ming, Hyundai and UASC direct service was stopped at the end of 2011, thus depriving Venice of a direct connection with the Far East. Meanwhile, CGA-CGM and Maersk have slightly changed the route of their direct service, which is current structured as depicted in Figure 6: it is still operated on a weekly basis through 9 dedicated ships, with a transit time of 30 days westbound and 34 days eastbound.

Figure 6 – Direct Far East-Europe Maersk/CGA-CGM service route (source: Maersk, update march 2012)

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Since April 2012, a new weekly direct service operated by the joint between the alliance CKYH (COSCO Container Lines (COSCON), Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha ("K" Line), Yang Ming and Hanjin Shipping) and Evergreen will connect the Far East and the Northern Adriatic ports of Trieste, Koper and Rijeka with 12 dedicated ships with a capacity of about 6.000 TEUs and an operational draft between 10,7 and 12,5 meters. The service will cover both the Pacific coast of the United States and the Far East (Figure 7), calling the following sequence of ports: Tokyo, Osaka, Pusan, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Kaoshsiung, Hong Kong, Yantian, Tanjung Pelepas, Colombo , Ashdod, Aleksandria, Taranto, Koper, Rijeka, Trieste, Taranto, Colombo, Tanjung Pelepas, Kaohsiung, Hong Kong, Yantian, Shanghai, Ningbo, Tacoma, Vancouver, Tokyo. The transit time from Tokyo to Trieste is 40 days, the overall transit time is 97 days.

Figure 7 – Direct CKYH/Evergreen container service between America, Far East and NAPA Ports (Source: Evergreen, updated March 2012)

The average size of ships calling NAPA ports with these direct services suggests that there is limited possibility of integration between deep sea container services and the current infrastructures of the ports of Venice and Ravenna. However, in the current stage the weekly capacity of the direct deep sea container services calling NAPA ports represents about 35% of the total available capacity. Some recent studies have highlighted relevant aspects related to the development of direct services between Far East and Northern Adriatic ports, that is:

• direct calls of deep sea services at NAPA ports is consistent with the so called “cascade effect”, that is the effective usage by the shipping companies of average size ships (i.e. between 6.000 and 8.500 TEU) otherwise unprofitable in routes allowing for larger scale economies; • on the other hand, the requirement of ensuring adequate loading factors normally requires a higher number of calls on the route Asia-North Adriatic with respect to the Asia-Northern Range services, which in turn implies the need to adopt higher operational vessel speeds in order to ensure adequate transit times; • this may be interpreted partly as the cause leading to the route change of the direct Maersk/CGA- CGM service with the elimination of the call at Piraeus, however also linked to the decrease of the performances of the Piraeus terminal and to the physiological demand decrease in the Greek area; • the latest trends in the container market, however, are driven partly by a structural change in the operations of the shipping company, which are now much more committed to remove the “dogma” of the shortest possible transit time offered to the market: it is reasonable therefore to assume that there will be higher flexibility in adding new perspective calls to existing services.

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Special attention should be paid to the circumstance that the mentioned deep sea direct services call three North Adriatic ports very close to each other (Trieste, Koper, Rijeka). In that respect, the most common explanation given by experts and relevant operators refers to the substantial separation of the catchment areas of the three called ports, specifically: Southern Germany and Austria from Trieste (plus a share of the Italian domestic market), Slovenia and part of the Central/Eastern Europe for Koper, Balkans from Rijeka. This is certainly true for the port of Rijeka, which however in the near future will have to face the increasing integration of the core freight network of Balkans within the European Union, whilst the ports of Trieste and Koper are significantly overlapped, mainly as a consequence of the inland penetration of their respective intermodal rail container services. In the medium run, therefore, the port of Rijeka will have to balance the opportunity given from the domestic demand increase in the Balkans and, from the other side, the risk of the increase in the competition with other ports and/or other modes of transport within its catchment area. On the other side, Trieste and Koper will likely reach an equilibrium in the subdivision of the competing markets overlapped in the respective catchment areas.

However, the strategies of the shipping companies will play a key role, for example by increasing the average size of vessels used and/or restructuring routes and services in response to changes in external conditions (e.g. bunker costs, implementation of emission trading schemes).

3.2.2 Feeder services The most recent survey on container feeder services for the NAPA ports area was carried out by MDS Transmodal in the first half of 2011: this was used as starting point for a substantial upgrade based on the following data sources: shortsea.info websites, statistics of various Port Authorities, websites of shipping companies, data from NAPA terminal containers, the website marinetraffic.com. Overall, an update to March 2012 was performed.

The following Table 4 provides an overall picture of the detected services. Clearly, all Northern Adriatic ports are satisfactorily connected with the main hubs of the central-eastern Mediterranean on a weekly basis, and also numerous direct intra-Mediterranean services are available as well. In addition, intra- Adriatic services departing from Trieste and linking both sides of the Adriatic have been launched recently. In general, the situation is extremely dynamic, with significant monthly variations in the structure of routes and calls for each individual feeder service.

By way of example, the service "MSC Croatia Express", which until the first half of 2011 guaranteed a weekly sequence Gioia Tauro - Rijeka - Koper - Gioia Tauro, was replaced in the early 2012 with a new feeder with sequence Gioia Tauro - Rijeka - Bar - Ploce - Gioia Tauro, and appropriate further modifications in the sequences of the calls were consistently performed for other services to/from the East Med in order to compensate the elimination of the call at Koper. Similarly, Evergreen has partially modified its ADL1 and ADL2 services within the process of transferring its related hub from Taranto to Piraeus.

However, importantly, the presence of an established network of feeder services weekly leads to a direct competition with the possibility of development of new direct services to/from the Far East.

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Table 4 – Feeder and intra-Mediterranean container services calling at NAPA ports (update March 2012)

call at NAPA ports + Monfalcone

type of operator/joint frequency sequence of port calls

service (TEU)

vessel capacity vesselcapacity

Ravenna Venezia Monfalcone Trieste Koper Rijeka x x Trieste, Venezia, Trieste, Ancona, Trieste (2 x week) 6/week * x x Trieste, Ancona, Ravenna, Trieste (1 x week) TO DELTA container 4 operating 1600 x x Trieste, Venezia, Trieste (2 x week) vessels x Trieste, Bar, Ploce, Spalato, Trieste (1 x week)

Borchard Adriatic container weekly 724 x x Ravenna, Venezia, Ashdod, Haifa, Limassol, Ravenna

CMA/CGM - Maersk - Hanjin - Malta, Taranto, Ploce, Split, Venezia, Trieste, Koper, UASC - Hapag Lloyd - Sermar Line - container weekly 907 x x x x x Rijeka, Ravenna, Ancona, Malta CSCL Piraeus, Rijeka, Koper, Venezia, Ancona, Piraeus, Cosco - Yang Ming container weekly 1150 x x x Thessaloniki, Piraeus

Evergreen - Italia Marittima - NYK - Koper, Venezia, Riijeka, Ravenna, Piraeus, Limassol, container weekly 1388 x x x Hanjin Ashdod, Mersin, Piraeus, Taranto, Koper

Trieste, Ravenna, Ancona, Piraeus, Alexandria, Beirut, Evergreen container 2/15 days 1388 x x Piraeus, Trieste

Ravenna, Monfalcone, Koper, Piraeus, Ashdod, Izmir, Grimaldi - Agemar multipurpose weekly 504 x x x Dernice, Gemlik

Ravenna, Venezia, Monfalcone, Koper, Limassol, Haifa, Grimaldi - Agemar multipurpose 10 days 650 x x x x Ashdod, Alexandria

Maersk container weekly - x x x Trieste, Venezia, Ancona, Ravenna, Trieste

Maersk container weekly - x x Malta, Ravenna, Trieste, Malta

Koper, Trieste, Ravenna, Piraeus, Limassol, Ashdod, Maersk container weekly 970 x x x Alexandria, Koper

Koper, Ravenna, Venezia, Piraeus, Izmir, Gebze, MSC - SEAGO LINE container weekly 2808 x x x x Gemlik, Istanbul, Piraeus, Trieste, Koper

Koper, Trieste, Venezia, Ravenna, Haifa, Ashdod, MSC - SEAGO LINE - ZIM container weekly 821 x x x x Koper

Koper, Gioia Tauro, Alexandria, Ravenna, Trieste, MSC - SEAGO LINE container weekly 2754 x x x x Venezia, Koper

Gioia Tauro, Koper, Trieste, Ravenna, Venezia, Gioia MSC container weekly 1889 x x x x Tauro, Mersin, Iskenderun, Gioia Tauro, Koper

MSC container weekly 1300 x Gioia Tauro, Rijeka, Bar, Ploce, Gioia Tauro

Sermar Line - UASC - Hapag Lloyd - Koper, Venezia, Ravenna, Ancona, Bengazhi, container 14 days 506 x x x Hanjin - SCI Alexandria, Port Said, Beirut, Lattakia, Mersin, Koper

Koper, Venezia, Ravenna, Ancona, Istanbul, Gemlik, Sermar Line - UASC container 14 days 448 x x x Thessaloniki, Izmir, Koper

United Feeder Services (Hapag Cagliari, Trapani, Palermo, Catania, Durres, Rijeka, container weekly 505 x x x Lloyd - CMA/CGM) Koper, Venezia, Ancona, Cagliari

Haifa, Ashdood, Koper, Trieste, Venezia, Ravenna, ZIM - CSCL - MSC - Grimaldi container weekly 1296 x x x x Aleksandria, Haifa

* frequency and sequence of call/route modifiable upon request

A particular container door-to-door service worth mentioning, not active at the date of February 2012 yet, but already defined through specific agreements signed between the Turkish logistics operator Inji Lojistik and Cosulich, provides a weekly service between Turkey (Aliaga) and Trieste with a vessel of 262 TEU capacity. The two peculiarities of the service are: “load units are 45-foot containers (pallet-wide, approved

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for the carriage of dangerous goods and equipped with GPS equipment to allow the customer to track the shipment), which provides customers with a loading space and a volume comparable to that of the classical truck trailer, conveyed by train from Manisa (industrial area of Izmir) to Aliaga as well as from Trieste to their final destinations (both Italian and foreign) with ad hoc block trains. Indeed, Inci Lojistik declared to have imposed a 200 km maximum threshold of road feeder transport in order to access the service [...] As announced by Inji Lojistik, the expected door-to-door transit time will be 5 days for Central-Northern Italy, 6 days for Austria and Germany, 7 days for Sweden and Denmark [...] the service will cover during the initial connection only the Aliaga – Trieste direct route, but is expected to grow with the inclusion of future calls in Ancona and Gezbe-Istanbul”4.

3.3 Ro-Ro services Ro-Ro services calling at North Adriatic ports are classified into three main categories:

• services offered by means of all-cargo multipurpose vessels, also performing container feeder links and intra-Mediterranean short sea shipping; • all-cargo services offered by means of dedicated Ro-Ro ships, i.e. not trading any other freight; • Ro-Pax mixed services.

The current state of the Ro-Ro services in each North Adriatic port is described in the following sub- sections.

3.3.1 Ravenna The port of Ravenna is served by two Ro-Ro lines. The first is the multipurpose Adriatic Service operated by Grimaldi Group (see Table 4) that, on a weekly basis, carries cars and trailers between the ports of Ravenna, Venice, Koper and Monfalcone on one hand, and the ports of Piraeus, Ashdod, Haifa, Alexandria, Izmir, Gemlik, Lattakia, Tartous, Limassol and the Eastern Mediterranean on the other hand. The sister ships Fides and Spes provide the service with a cargo capacity of 2400 cars. The second line is the thrice-weekly service operated by Tirrenia (which absorbed the former operator Adriatica di Navigazione) between Catania and Ravenna, with the sister vessels Espresso Ravenna and Espresso Catania, capable of 1800 linear meters of cargo. Despite the excellent loading factors observed in recent times (about 40.000 trailers/year transported, which effectively saturate the theoretical capacity of the service), the line suffers indirectly from the effects of the bankruptcy of Tirrenia. As a consequence, the schedule for the second quarter of year 2012 is still unavailable.

It should be finally noted that, for both services, the ships in operation are on average older than 20 years and are capable of a maximum speed of 18 knots, with a strong vocation for freight and only very limited passengers transport possibilities.

3.3.2 Venice The market segments of Ro-Ro and Ro-Pax services is particularly relevant for the Port of Venice, albeit with considerable supply variations over the last years.

The main route is to/from Greece, where significant services are provided by the shipping companies Minoan Lines (subsidiary of Grimaldi) and Anek Lines. In particular, Minoan Lines offers year-round connections with the ports of Igoumenitsa and Patras, and a seasonal connection (from April to October) to Corfu. The frequency of this service is on a bi-weekly basis, and becomes tri-weekly from July to September.

4 Ship to shore, n° 38 of 10/10/2011.

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The vessels used on these routes are the high speed cruise ferries Europa Palace and the Palace Olympia, dated 2002, strongly oriented to passenger comfort. The maximum speed is 31 knots and the load capacity is either 850 cars or 2000 lane meters for trailers. Notably, Minoan is capable to offer, through the control of Grimaldi, a "longbridge" service with a unique ticket between Spain and Greece using the Livorno- Barcelona and the Ancona-Igoumenitsa/Patrasso sea routes: as a consequence, the Ro-Pax service operated from Venice does not capture such traffic share. Anek Lines, which until 2005 operated from the port of Trieste, offers completely analogous routes, with connections from Venice to Igoumenitsa and Patras throughout the year on a bi-weekly basis, and four times a week from May to October with an additional call Corfu. Sister ships Kriti I and Kriti II travelling on this route are Ro-Pax vessels, built in 1979 and renovated in 1997, capable of a maximum speed of 22 knots and a capacity of 1700 lane meters for trailers.

The shipping connections between Venezia and Slovenia/Croatia, given the small distances and the consequent strong competition with the all-road competing alternative, are devoted exclusively to passengers transport and consist of high-speed catamaran services operated by Venezia Lines company, calling at Losinj, Pula, Porec, Rabac , Rovinj and Umag.

The third target market area for the Ro-Ro services calling at the port of Venice is represented by potential non-Schengen destinations in the Eastern Mediterranean. In particular, a new weekly Ro-Ro line was launched on May 2010 with Syria (Tartous) and Egypt (Alexandria) by the company Visemar, born from a partnership between the company shipbuilding Visentini of Porto Viro (Rovigo) and the shipping agency and Venetian forwarding company Tositti. The service, scheduled for departure every Thursday at 16, called at Tartous after 68 hours, reached Alexandria after another 20 hours and returned to Venice after 60 hours. The fleet was composed by the Visemar One ship, capable of carrying 200 trucks and 400 passengers at a speed of 24 knots. The service has been suspended since June 1, 2011 due to the unstable political situation in Syria.

In any case, the Venice-Alexandria route faced some operational difficulties, which have effectively limited the profitability even during the operating phase. In particular, as evidenced by some informal discussions of the project team with representatives of the Italian Embassy in Cairo in September 2010, a remarkable difficulty of reaching a break-even emerged, mainly due to the remarkable seasonality of passenger and cargo traffic (mainly fruit and vegetables). In addition, significant bureaucratic difficulties emerged as well: for passengers cars, Italian authorities were requiring a bank guarantee for the value of the boarded car as a condition for embarking; for goods, a temporary plate for the movement of trailers loaded on EU network should be temporarily issued, given that the Egyptian plates are not recognized at the EU level.

Finally, it should be emphasized that the port of Venice has no longer active Ro-Ro links with any other Italian ports, after the suspension of the historical weekly service Venice-Catania provided by the former Adriatica di Navigazione (now Tirrenia) with sister ships of the Ravenna-Catania service.

3.3.3 Monfalcone The port of Monfalcone benefits from the calls of the multipurpose Adriatic Service by Grimaldi (Table 3).

3.3.4 Trieste The Ro-Ro and Ro-Pax segments are a key feature of the maritime supply of the port of Trieste, which has been adopting an aggressive marketing and business policy since the lost in 2005 of the Anek Lines routes in favour of the port of Venice, as a consequence of structural inadequacies in the landside port facilities and performances.

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The main current destination is represented by Turkey, towards which operate the two companies UN Ro- Ro (now controlled by U.S. fund KKR) and Ulusoy Denizcilik (former owner of the UN Ro-Ro shipping company), both commercialized by Samer & Co. Shipping Group, which also provides terminalization services in the new terminal Riva Traiana. In particular, the U.N. Ro-Ro operates two services, respectively to/from Pendik/Ambarli (respectively in the Asian/European sides of Istanbul) and to/from Mersin, in south-eastern Turkey. The Pendik/Ambarli service is operated daily, with 9 dedicated vessels and a transit time of 57 hours, whilst the bi-weekly Mersin line was launched in March 2009 with a transit time of 80 hours, operated by two vessels: it is able to serve effectively all shippers operating in Central Anatolia and South-East Turkey. The vessels sailing on the two lines have a maximum speed of 21 knots and a capacity of 240 trailers. From December 2011, a Pendik-Constanța service is also available, with the possibility of transshipment on the service to/from Trieste, which is therefore now connected with the city of Constanța with a transit time of 80 hours. The Ulusoy Denizcilik shipping company provides a tri-weekly service from Cesme (Izmir), with a transit time of 60 hours. Overall, the supply of Samer & Co. Shipping is thus of 13 weekly departures from Trieste to Turkey, with 14 ships dedicated and an average total traffic of about 200.000 trailers/trucks per year.

It is also currently under appraisal the feasibility of a Çeşme-Israel service in order to expand the range of destinations from the port of Trieste. It should be emphasized that, for both companies, the type of service normally includes the loading of trailers and tractor (accompanied transport), with the transport of the truck driver by plane from/to the Ljubljana airport and subsequent transfer to the port of Trieste in order to continue the journey.

Another interesting aspect is that Samer Sea Ports acts as a Ro-La terminal operator for the service run by Alpe Adria S.p.A. in joint with the Austrian Oekombi between the Port of Trieste and Salzburg, consisting of four daily intermodal rail services (i.e. 25 trains/week on average) which trade about 40.000 trailers/year, i.e. corresponding to a market share of 20% of the total Ro-Ro traffic served by the port of Trieste. Moreover, a new combined service was recently launched, operated by Kombiverkehr, between Trieste and Worms with 6 trains per week: this service calls at the Ro-Ro Terminal F. Parisi S.p.A. and is dedicated to transporting only unaccompanied trailers to/from Turkey.

Importantly, the Ro-Ro market in Trieste is very attractive and turbulent at the same time, with rapid changes in supply and demand characteristics. In particular, the strong duopoly Ulusoy Denizcilik – U.N. Ro- Ro prevented effectively additional competitors to enter the market: it is worth mentioning here just the unlucky experiences of the BKT Ro-Ro, Ocean and SITT UND Deniz shipping companies, who tried to start new lines over the past two years, all eventually suspended5. The effects of the relocation plans in the Ro- Ro Muggia terminal, proposed by the Port Authority and partly contrasted by the same Samer, whose license expires in terminal Riva Traiana in 2016, should be also taken into account.

Finally, it should be noted also that the Trieste-Turkey corridor is now facing also an enlarged competition with the presence of intermodal sea/rail services trading 45 feet pallet-wide containers (see Section 3.2.2).

As of March 2012, there are no Ro-Ro services towards other destinations. In particular, the old domestic services operated by Adriatica di Navigazione was stopped, and in 2010 was suspended the weekly service to Durres, operated by NEL Lines together with the shipping agent Agemar. The vessels used were then sold to the Ventouris Ferries shipping company, which currently employs them on the Apulia-Greece relations.

5 The Uluslalarasi Nakliyeciler Derneg (UND) has been facing serious problems since 2008, included the fire onboard the UND Adryiatik ship, which caused the complete loss of the load.

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3.3.5 Koper The port of Koper is characterized primarily, with reference to the Ro-Ro segment, by the presence of numerous dedicated car carrier services to many intercontinental destinations offered by various specialized shipping companies (Hoegh Autoliners, Eukor, Wallenius - Wilhelmsen, NYK, NYKCOS). Furthermore, three services are open to the Ro-Ro transport of accompanied and unaccompanied trailers.

The first is the already aforementioned Adriatic Service by Grimaldi, which calls at Koper on a weekly basis, offering direct connections to the ports of Pireaus, Constance, Ilyichevsk, Dernancourt/Evyap, Yenikoy, Boursan, Limassol, Tartous, Beirut, Alexandria, Valletta, Tunis , Algiers, Casablanca, Valencia, Segunto, Barcelona, Livorno, Civitavecchia, Gioia Tauro.

The second service is operated by Neptune Lines, which connects with a fortnightly service round trip from Koper to Piraeus, Limassol, Tartous, Beirut, Alexandria, Piraeus and return to Koper. The vessel used has a maximum speed of 20 knots, a capacity of 1500 cars and between 800 and 1200 linear meters for loading trailers.

The third service is the Adriatic-Black Sea service operated by MCCL (Mediterranean Car Carriers Line), with a fortnightly service between the ports of Koper, Pireaus, Ilyichevsk and Odessa. The vessel used is the Anemos Sea, with a maximum speed of 12 knots and essentially dedicated to the car carrier segment.

3.3.6 Rijeka The port of Rijeka has only one international Ro-Ro service, run by the company Jadrolinija, which calls with a coastal round trip several ports on the eastern Adriatic side and the port of Bari with a transit time of about 36 hours. Actually, the service was suspended in January 2012 and currently there are no news about its reprise. Jadrolinija also operates a number of local services to the islands of the district of Rijeka, both served with either car ferries or catamarans, mainly devoted to passenger traffic.

3.3.7 Summary Report The lines described in the sub-sections above are summarized in the following Table 5.

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Table 5 – Ro-Ro services calling at NAPA ports (updated March 2012)

type of vessel origin destination company frequency type of service transit time update March 2012 * year max speed capacity Ravenna, Venezia, Monfalcone, Pireo, Ashdod, 2400 cars, 14 days Haifa, Alessandria, Izmir, Grimaldi Group weekly multipurpose 1993 19 knots active 500 TEU (round trip) Gemlik, Lattakia, Tartous, Limassol Koper Pireaus, Limassol, Tartous, 1500 cars o Neptune Lines fortnightly car carrier/Ro-Ro 1989 20 knots - active Beirut, Alexandria, Pireaus 1200 m.l.

Pireaus, Ilyichevsk e Odessa MCCL fortnightly car carrier/Ro-Ro 1980 12 knots - - active

Ravenna, Venezia, Koper, Pireo, Ashdod, Haifa, 2400 cars, 14 days Monfalcone Grimaldi Group weekly multipurpose 1993 19 knots active Alessandria, Izmir, Gemlik, 500 TEU (round trip) Lattakia, Tartous, Limassol Venezia, Koper, Monfalcone, Pireo, Ashdod, 2400 cars, 14 days Haifa, Alessandria, Izmir, Grimaldi Group weekly multipurpose 1993 19 knots active 500 TEU (round trip) Gemlik, Lattakia, Tartous, Ravenna Limassol active (timetable Catania Tirrenia 3/week Ro-Pax 1994 19 knots 1800 m.l. 13 hours unavailable from April 2012) Zadar, Split, Stari Grad, suspended January Rijeka Jadrolinija - Ro-Pax - - - - Dubrovnik, Sobra, Bari 2012 Pendik/Ambarli U.N. Ro-Ro daily Ro-Pax ** 2005/2010 21 knots 240 trailer 57 hours active Trieste Mersin U.N. Ro-Ro 2/week Ro-Pax ** 2005/2011 21 knots 240 trailer 80 hours active Çeşme (Izmir) Ulusoy Denizcilik 3/week Ro-Pax ** - - - 60 hours active Ravenna, Koper, Monfalcone, Pireo, Ashdod, 2400 cars, 14 days Haifa, Alessandria, Izmir, Grimaldi Group weekly multipurpose 1993 19 knots active 500 TEU (round trip) Gemlik, Lattakia, Tartous, Limassol Venezia Igoumenitsa, Corfù 2/week (winter), 850 cars o 20 hours Minoan Lines Ro-Pax 2002 31 knots active (seasonal), Patrasso 4/week (summer) 2000 m.l. (Patrasso)

Igoumenitsa, Corfù 2/week (winter), 22 hours Anek Lines Ro-Pax 1979 (1997) 22 knots 1700 m.l. active (seasonal), Patrasso 4/week (summer) (Patrasso)

* only services in operations at 31/12/2011 are taken into account ** truck drivers transported by plane to Ljubljana 3.4 Intermodal rail services All NAPA ports, albeit with different characteristics and potential, can offer a direct rail link with the main national and international rail networks. Consistently, a review of the existing intermodal rail services was performed, updated March 2012. The main source of such review was the MDS Transmodal study on the NAPA cluster, the websites of the Port Authorities and of the operators of the related container terminals, the public timetables of the train companies and of some multimodal logistics operators. The overall picture of the collected services is shown at a glance in the following Table 6. The dominant position of Trieste and Koper towards Germany to Eastern Europe is clearly underlined, whilst more marginal rail connections are available to/from Ravenna, Venice and Rijeka. On the other hand, by observing the percentage of modal distribution of the inland leg for the NAPA ports, the following values can be observed: Koper 70%, Trieste 40%, Rijeka about 10%, Ravenna 7%, Venice 3%.

From an organizational standpoint, the initiative of the Port Authority of Venice should be underlined, which has established a specific company (Venezia Logistics) in order to facilitate the inland connections of the port, with a particular emphasis to the railway: indeed, Venezia Logistics acts as multimodal transport operator for the bi-weekly block trains to/from Melzo (Milan). From the other side, a further element of great interest and potential growth for the positioning of the port of Trieste is the new joint venture created in early 2012 between T.O. Delta and Rail Cargo Austria, which in cooperation with Alpe Adria S.p.A. promoted an ambitious plan of development of rail intermodal connections from the port of Trieste along the Austria-Germany and Austria-Hungary axes.

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Finally, in addition to scheduled services listed in Table 6, the presence of additional services activated upon request from Trieste to Milan, Bologna and the Czech Republic, and from Koper to Romania (Arad) and the Czech Republic, should be reported as well.

Table 6 – Intermodal rail services to/from NAPA ports (update March 2012)

destination origin company frequency * country terminal Slovenia Lubiana, Maribor Adria Kombi 2/3 day Germany Monaco (via Lubiana) Adria Kombi 2 day Czeck Republic Vratimov Adria Kombi 3/week Budapest Adria Kombi 5/week Szolnok, Budaors-Torokbalint Navismart 3/week Hungary Budapest ARGO 2/week Budapest Metrans 1 day Žilina ** Adria Kombi 6/week Koper Slovakia Bratislava Adria Kombi 3/week Dunajska Streda (and forward) Metrans 3/day Serbia Belgrado (via Lubiana) Adria Kombi 2/day Croatia Zagabria Adria Kombi 2/day Graz *** Adria Transport 5/week Austria Villach RCA-ICA/Adria Kombi 5/week Poland Dabrowa Gornicza (via Lubiana - Vienna) Adria Kombi/LTE/Baltic rail 1/week Bulgaria Sofia (via Lubiana) Adria Kombi 1/week Melzo FER/Sogemar 3/week Ravenna Italy Bologna Interporto FER/Italcontainer 2/week Dinazzano FER/Italcontainer 4/week Serbia Belgrado n.a. **** 5/week Rijeka Hungary Budapest CroKombi 5/week Villach Alpe Adria - RCA 4-5/week Graz Alpe Adria - RCA 4-5/week Vienna Alpe Adria - RCA 4-5/week Austria Linz Alpe Adria - RCA 4-5/week Salisburgo Alpe Adria - RCA 4-5/week Wolfurth Alpe Adria - RCA 4-5/week Budapest T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria 1-2/week Hungary Zahony – via Budapest T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria 1-2/week Dobra – via Budapest T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria 1-2/week Monaco T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria 5/week Ulm T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria 1/week Trieste Ludwigshafen - via Monaco T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria - Kombiverkehr 5/week Germany Colonia - via Monaco T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria - Kombiverkehr 5/week Duisburg - via Monaco T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria - Kombiverkehr 5/week Lipsia - via Monaco T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria - Kombiverkehr 5/week Berlino - via Monaco T.O. Delta - RCA - Alpe Adria - Kombiverkehr 5/week Padova Interporto Alpe Adria 4/week Milano Alpe Adria 1/week 1/week Italy Bologna Alpe Adria on cargo inducement 1/week Modena Rubiera Alpe Adria on cargo inducement Venezia Italy Melzo Venezia Logistics 2/week

* in some cases the frequency should be intended as an upper limit ** service dedicated for KIA *** possibility of shipping single wagons from Maribor by Adria Kombi **** cited by MDS Transmodal but not available at March 2012 3.5 Technical and shipping-oriented services A major element to be accounted for the analysis of the relative competition among ports within the NAPA cluster is represented by the differences in the fares of the technical and shipping-oriented services (mooring, pilotage, towage): in fact, in Italy those services are operated under monopoly and are priced

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yearly on the basis of specific regulations by the Maritime Authorities, whilst in Slovenia and Croatia those fares are freely determined in the market. This issue has assumed a national relevance in Italy as a consequence of a specific report issued by the Italian Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato (authority for the regulation of the competition and of the markets) No. AS905 dated 14/12/2011, which has precisely identified the need for a greater liberalization in the sector.

An exact quantification of the differences of the fares amongst the NAPA ports is not straightforward, because of the numerous factors to which the fares themselves depend on. Quoting a letter sent to Confitarma in 2011 by the President of the Port Authority of Venice, "the negative effects of the high rates now in force are well-documented and the consequent lack of competitiveness of the Italian North Adriatic ports with respect to ports in Slovenia and Croatia it is clear [...] For instance, for a 42.000 dwt containership, the total cost due to port services (2010 figure) in Venice is about 30.000 Euros, which becomes 16.500 Euros in Trieste, 12.500 Euros in Koper and 9.000 Euros in Rijeka. Overall, the total cost paid by the shipping company on an yearly basis sums up to about one million Euros for intercontinental scheduled services with the Far East”. In other words, this means that being 100 the cost of a technical services in Venice, the same cost is 55 in Trieste, 42 in Koper and 30 in Rijeka.

3.6 Port traffics This section provides for an overall picture of freight movements in each of the ports of the NAPA cluster for the period 2006-2011, relevant to the TRANSITECTS study. In particular, the data for Ravenna are reported in Table 7, for Venice in Table 8, for Trieste in Table 9, for Koper in Table 10 and for Rijeka in Table 11. The main data source is represented by the statistics of each respective Port Authority, which however exhibit heterogeneous statistics in terms of how data are collected and disseminated.

An aggregated comparison between ports is then shown at a glance6 in Table 12: the functional specialization of each single ports emerges clearly, with Trieste substantially prevalent in the handling of liquid bulk, Ravenna and Venezia are main dry bulk ports, Venice again and Trieste on other types of goods and Koper on containers. Incidentally, using a simple conversion factor of about 11 tons per TEU, it follows that the container market segment is not the most important for the whole NAPA cluster.

The excellence of the NAPA ports in various sectors of maritime transport is even more highlighted if looking at their international ranking: Trieste in 2009 was the eighth European port for liquid bulk, Venice and Ravenna were respectively ranked 12th and 18th for conventional general cargo, Ravenna and Venice respectively 9th and 16th for dry bulk and Koper to the 17th place as car carrier port7.

6 For the sake of completeness, the NAPA website (www.portsofnapa.com) reported for 2011 a total freight flow of 124.2 million tons, with a growth tendency since 2009. However, a detailed analysis of the data for each single port (from Table 6 to Table 10), evidences a remarkably heterogeneous recovery cycle amongst NAPA ports. 7 Ranking based on EUROSTAT 2009 data, reported on the deliverables of the SONORA project (2011).

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Table 7 – Traffic statistics for the Port of Ravenna – 2006-2011 period

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 in out total in out total in out total in out total in out total in out total Total traffic (tons) 23.884.173 2.886.003 26.770.176 23.367.705 2.936.802 26.304.507 22.758.767 3.137.546 25.896.313 16.007.864 2.695.012 18.702.876 19.028.126 2.893.915 21.922.041 20.139.547 3.204.070 23.343.617 Liquid bulk (tons) 4.838.358 373.179 5.211.537 4.272.088 259.415 4.531.503 4.486.769 347.054 4.833.823 4.259.926 371.876 4.631.802 4.471.865 468.143 4.940.008 4.273.736 541.646 4.815.382 Crude oil 129.250 0 129.250 117.850 0 117.850 122.100 0 122.100 164.300 0 164.300 166.603 0 166.603 104.920 0 104.920 Refined products 2.612.360 143.491 2.755.851 2.044.400 120.900 2.165.300 2.182.055 203.787 2.385.842 1.930.672 232.865 2.163.537 1.923.755 181.204 2.104.959 1.759.265 190.640 1.949.905 Liquefied gas 435.400 46.499 481.899 417.239 29.415 446.654 426.038 14.593 440.631 394.494 17.597 412.091 463.005 27.285 490.290 482.009 14.694 496.703 Chemical products * n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.074.148 258.151 1.332.299 1.109.386 325.849 1.435.235 Other 1.661.348 183.189 1.844.537 1.692.599 109.100 1.801.699 1.756.576 128.674 1.885.250 1.770.460 121.414 1.891.874 844.354 1.503 845.857 818.156 10.463 828.619 Dry bulk (tons) 11.951.024 612.048 12.563.072 12.145.128 576.356 12.721.484 11.080.204 647.989 11.728.193 8.170.544 429.142 8.599.686 9.370.790 392.422 9.763.212 9.523.060 476.650 9.999.710 Cereals 592.622 37.934 630.556 793.268 49.848 843.116 825.774 52.143 877.917 761.618 28.943 790.561 947.797 29.219 977.016 1.220.633 63.348 1.283.981 Foodstuff 2.092.494 143.561 2.236.055 1.997.910 210.612 2.208.522 2.060.494 207.367 2.267.861 2.002.282 99.746 2.102.028 1.987.230 107.719 2.094.949 2.271.165 125.361 2.396.526 Coal 467.375 0 467.375 462.723 0 462.723 478.616 0 478.616 367.803 0 367.803 481.227 0 481.227 361.028 4.583 365.611 Metallurgical products 20.102 0 20.102 36.313 0 36.313 23.451 1.041 24.492 29.650 0 29.650 25.899 0 25.899 4.328 0 4.328 Ore, cement, lime 7.636.103 82.351 7.718.454 7.400.220 2.238 7.402.458 6.357.034 5.440 6.362.474 3.840.898 15.380 3.856.278 4.736.284 0 4.736.284 4.562.549 0 4.562.549 Fertilizers 1.142.328 348.202 1.490.530 1.454.694 313.658 1.768.352 1.371.474 384.391 1.755.865 1.168.293 285.073 1.453.366 1.192.353 255.484 1.447.837 1.103.357 283.358 1.386.715 General cargo (tons) 7.094.791 1.900.776 8.995.567 6.950.489 2.101.031 9.051.520 7.191.794 2.142.503 9.334.297 3.577.394 1.893.994 5.471.388 5.185.471 2.033.350 7.218.821 6.342.751 2.185.774 8.528.525 container 935.664 1.055.112 1.990.776 1.194.288 1.320.635 2.514.923 1.230.704 1.381.037 2.611.741 925.339 1.173.480 2.098.819 1.001.708 1.214.273 2.215.981 1.105.818 1.366.473 2.472.291 Ro/Ro 240.875 573.075 813.950 244.125 559.211 803.336 295.475 550.456 845.931 246.595 549.161 795.756 281.919 616.864 898.783 202.230 469.448 671.678 other 5.918.252 272.589 6.190.841 5512076 221185 5.733.261 5.665.615 211.010 5.876.625 2.405.460 171.353 2.576.813 3.901.844 202.213 4.104.057 5.034.703 349.853 5.384.556 Containers (TEU) 78.857 83.195 162.052 101.413 105.167 206.580 104.875 109.449 214.324 91.184 93.838 185.022 90.804 92.773 183.577 107.792 107.544 215.336 loaded 57.285 73.381 130.666 75.040 98.133 173.173 76.797 102.123 178.920 60.031 86.222 146.253 66.264 84.725 150.989 66.776 99.126 165.902 empty 21.572 9.814 31.386 26.373 7.034 33.407 28.078 7.326 35.404 31.153 7.616 38.769 24.540 8.048 32.588 41.016 8.418 49.434 Ro/Ro vehicles (n°) ** n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 38.942 21.596 60.538 26.642 17.692 44.334

* up to 2008 chemical products are classified as "other" liquid bulk ** data available since 2010

Source: statistics of the Port Authority of Ravenna

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Table 8 – Traffic statistics for the Port of Venice – 2006-2011 period

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 in out total in out total in out total in out total in out total in out total Total traffic (tons) 26.089.116 4.847.816 30.936.932 25.620.189 4.594.506 30.214.695 25.012.705 5.226.487 30.239.192 20.420.736 4.769.108 25.189.844 21.361.999 5.027.759 26.389.758 21.424.195 4.897.507 26.321.702 Liquid bulk (tons) 11.990.163 1.051.376 13.041.539 11.533.452 1.200.804 12.734.256 11.176.015 1.155.175 12.331.190 10.671.124 1.003.275 11.674.399 10.869.839 1.059.008 11.928.847 10.482.571 728.242 11.210.813 Crude oil 6.723.471 0 6.723.471 6.367.677 64.917 6.432.594 5.742.488 26.078 5.768.566 5.789.306 0 5.789.306 5.485.443 0 5.485.443 4.411.577 0 4.411.577 Refined products 3.998.374 639.629 4.638.003 3.920.647 788.829 4.709.476 4.339.124 752.480 5.091.604 3.865.515 694.686 4.560.201 4.222.667 688.011 4.910.678 5.019.093 402.918 5.422.011 Other 1.268.318 411.747 1.680.065 1.245.128 347.058 1.592.186 1.094.403 376.617 1.471.020 1.016.303 308.589 1.324.892 1.161.729 370.997 1.532.726 1.051.901 325.324 1.377.225 Dry bulk (tons) 8.889.373 140.703 9.030.076 8.470.784 45.208 8.515.992 8.492.418 20.233 8.512.651 6.228.210 100.695 6.328.905 6.213.794 211.909 6.425.703 6.480.125 128.230 6.608.355 Cereals 1.266.353 9.623 1.275.976 1.088.434 5.595 1.094.029 376.237 2.207 378.444 214.620 11.102 225.722 248.483 53.647 302.130 674.703 25.861 700.564 Foodstuff 697.844 91.611 789.455 780.806 32.228 813.034 1.583.479 7.972 1.591.451 1.430.312 32.578 1.462.890 1.533.880 15.675 1.549.555 1.325.565 29.591 1.355.156 Coal 3.071.175 27.179 3.098.354 2.996.615 7.385 3.004.000 3.164.458 7.963 3.172.421 2.372.977 6.121 2.379.098 1.937.803 0 1.937.803 1.604.000 0 1.604.000 Metallurgical products 892.570 0 892.570 790.659 0 790.659 779.463 0 779.463 446.014 1.780 447.794 618.022 0 618.022 566.732 6.362 573.094 Fertilizers 41.128 3.005 44.133 63.567 0 63.567 31.062 0 31.062 18.924 1.401 20.325 9.156 0 9.156 20.487 0 20.487 Other 2.920.303 9.285 2.929.588 2.750.703 0 2.750.703 2.557.719 2.091 2.559.810 1.745.363 47.712 1.793.075 1.866.450 142.587 2.009.037 2.288.638 66.416 2.355.054 General cargo (tons) 5.209.580 3.655.737 8.865.317 5.615.953 3.348.494 8.964.447 5.344.272 4.051.079 9.395.351 3.521.402 3.665.138 7.186.540 4.278.366 3.756.842 8.035.208 4.461.499 4.041.034 8.502.533 container 1.461.125 1.892.427 3.353.552 1.599.375 1.777.783 3.377.158 1.630.737 2.120.313 3.751.050 1.448.888 2.228.742 3.677.630 1.550.691 2.406.806 3.957.497 1.775.354 2.867.862 4.643.216 Ro/Ro 782.750 1.188.987 1.971.737 796.180 1.198.010 1.994.190 1.108.691 1.505.348 2.614.039 819.764 1.057.115 1.876.879 807.140 979.658 1.786.798 762.072 878.589 1.640.661 other 2.965.705 574.323 3.540.028 3.220.398 372.701 3.593.099 2.604.844 425.418 3.030.262 1.252.750 379.281 1.632.031 1.920.535 370.378 2.290.913 1.924.073 294.583 2.218.656 Containers (number) 112.744 100.163 212.907 121.696 97.522 219.218 132.060 112.834 244.894 127.504 110.713 238.217 135.787 122.386 258.173 154.207 143.002 297.209 empty 39.089 5.426 44.515 37.778 10.188 47.966 47.783 10.729 58.512 56.617 6.778 63.395 58.579 8.873 67.452 69.351 8.520 77.871 loaded 73.654 94.737 168.391 83.918 87.334 171.252 84.277 102.105 186.382 70.887 103.935 174.822 77.208 113.513 190.721 84.856 134.482 219.338 Containers (TEU) 167.095 149.547 316.642 184.318 145.194 329.512 204.031 175.041 379.072 197.282 172.192 369.474 207.419 186.494 393.913 238.609 219.754 458.363 empty 59.808 8.504 68.312 62.719 14.356 77.075 82.600 14.968 97.568 94.792 9.982 104.774 95.291 13.267 108.558 116.145 11.259 127.404 loaded 107.286 141.043 248.329 121.599 130.838 252.437 121.431 159.713 281.144 102.490 162.210 264.700 112.128 173.227 285.355 122.464 208.495 330.959 Number of vessels - - 4.998 - - 4.781 - - 4.974 - - 4.294 - - 4.189 - - 4.142

Source: statistics of the Port Authority of Venice

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Table 9 – Traffic statistics for the Port of Trieste – 2006-2011 period

year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total traffic (tons) 48.167.718 46.114.178 48.279.120 44.393.322 47.634.188 35.229.638 Commercial port n.a. 9.267.887 9.162.988 8.038.965 9.806.454 11.206.703 Terminale Ferriera n.a. 1.657.770 1.702.252 1.130.745 1.339.621 1.196.723 Terminale S.I.O.T. 36.820.683 33.586.912 36.066.577 33.980.346 35.163.794 34.330.446 P.F. Oli Minerali n.a. 484.589 665.702 617.684 805.577 587.405 Porto Industriale (Zaule) n.a. 1.117.610 681.579 625.393 518.742 916.700 Liquid bulk (tons) 37.765.398 34.766.830 37.268.454 35.025.452 36.208.303 35.229.638 Crude oil 37.761.336 33.586.912 35.927.174 33.967.193 35.118.794 34.228.706 Refined products 940.653 1.175.888 1.337.675 1.055.956 1.083.774 989.946 Other 4.062 4.030 3.605 2.302 5.735 10.986 Dry bulk (tons) 1.977.314 2.114.609 1.805.533 1.541.324 1.634.998 1.720.095 Cereals 281.952 104.948 94.673 81.437 102.138 105.181 Coal 704.137 700.577 781.529 568.623 644.104 616.426 Ore, cement, lime 876.722 1.019.329 653.544 743.214 715.113 500.324 Other 114.503 289.755 275.787 148.050 173.643 498.164 General cargo (tons) 8.380.134 9.234.636 9.205.120 7.826.546 9.790.887 11.288.244 container n.a. 2.832.064 3.119.293 2.865.660 3.093.692 4.644.396 Ro/Ro 5.680.786 6.053.645 5.487.951 4.783.957 5.648.502 5.817.998 Containers (TEU) 220.310 265.863 335.943 276.957 281.643 393.186 Ro/Ro vehicles (n°) n.a. 225.656 209.218 181.719 231.334 223.716 3.610 3.783 3.705 3.435 3.755 3.982 Number of Vessels

Source: statistics of the Port Authority of Trieste

Table 10 – Traffic statistics for the Port of Koper – 2006-2011 period

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year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 General cargo tons 1.180.924 1.607.027 1.468.723 1.418.124 1.445.631 1.383.354 tons 2.120.807 2.637.910 2.989.559 3.038.175 4.276.137 5.309.346 Container TEU 218.970 305.648 353.880 343.165 476.731 589.314 tons 570.214 744.610 816.192 444.621 559.706 665.878 Vehicles

Total n° 399.099 522.800 568.941 314.824 379.250 447.689 Dry bulk tons 8.106.467 8.132.961 7.900.610 5.575.403 6.363.557 6.769.845 Liquid bulk tons 2.052.321 2.240.441 2.875.365 2.667.298 2.727.013 2.922.891 Total tons 14.030.730 15.362.979 16.050.448 13.143.620 15.372.043 17.051.314

General cargo tons 1.049.376 1.245.815 1.046.875 1.069.240 1.142.059 986.330 tons 989.169 1.030.309 1.287.103 1.505.178 2.082.141 2.566.058 Container TEU 105.771 145.191 174.719 168.314 225.593 281.906 tons 251.209 294.550 312.123 225.805 310.503 338.266 Vehicles Out n° 159.774 192.410 198.225 146.284 200.253 226.305 Dry bulk tons 1.083.493 1.192.927 1.058.135 624.216 1.003.801 1.033.486 Liquid bulk tons 6 0 18.067 26.395 79.556 42.928 Total tons 3.373.253 3.755.571 3.722.302 3.450.834 4.618.061 4.967.068

General cargo tons 131.547 361.212 421.848 348.884 303.572 397.024 tons 1.131.638 1.607.601 1.702.456 1.532.997 2.193.996 2.743.288 Container TEU 113.199 160.457 179.161 174.851 251.138 307.408 tons 319.005 450.060 504.069 218.815 249.203 327.612

In Vehicles n° 239.325 330.390 370.716 168.540 178.997 221.384 Dry bulk tons 7.022.974 6.940.034 6.842.475 4.951.187 5.359.756 5.736.359 Liquid bulk tons 2.052.314 2.240.441 2.857.298 2.640.904 2.647.457 2.879.963 Total tons 10.657.479 11.599.348 12.328.146 9.692.787 10.753.984 12.084.246

Number of vessels 2.262 2.234 2.227 1.895 1.965 1.958

Source: statistics of the Port Authority of Koper

Table 11 – Traffic statistics for the Port of Rijeka – 2006-2011 period

year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total traffic (tons) 10.887.000 13.212.464 12.391.591 11.238.154 10.183.304 n.a. Dry bulk n.a. n.a. 6.027.427 5.207.332 4.559.877 n.a. General cargo n.a. n.a. 2.373.810 2.112.870 2.305.019 n.a. Bulk cargo n.a. n.a. 3.377.560 2.873.487 2.000.384 n.a. wood n.a. n.a. 276.057 220.975 254.474 n.a. Liquid bulk n.a. n.a. 6.364.164 6.030.822 5.623.427 n.a. Containers (TEU) 94.390 145.040 168.761 130.740 137.048 151.000

Source: statistics of the Port Authority of Rijeka

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Table 12 – Comparison amongst NAPA ports in terms of total traffic (tons) and container traffics (TEU) for years

2010/2011

Total traffic (tons) traffic Total (tons) bulk Liquid (tons) bulk Dry (tons) Generalcargo (TEU) Containers Ravenna 21.922.041 18% 4.940.008 8% 9.763.212 34% 7.218.821 23% 215.336 12% Venezia 26.389.758 22% 11.928.847 19% 6.425.703 22% 8.035.208 26% 458.363 25% Trieste 47.634.188 39% 36.208.303 59% 1.634.998 6% 9.790.887 31% 393.186 22% Koper 15.372.043 13% 2.727.013 4% 6.363.557 22% 6.281.473 20% 589.314 33% Rijeka 10.183.304 8% 5.623.427 9% 4.559.877 16% 0% 151.000 8% NAPA total 121.501.334 100% 61.427.598 100% 28.747.347 100% 31.326.389 100% 1.807.199 100%

Nota: figures in tons are referred to 2010, figures in TEU are referred to 2011

4 Intermodal rail services of the main freight villages in Veneto This section deals with a review of the intermodal rail services of the main freight villages in Veneto, i.e. Interporto di Padova and Interporto di Verona, together with a broader comparison with the relevant freight village of Interporto di Bologna. The analysis is based on data collected from the freight villages management companies, railway companies, major multimodal logistics/intermodal operators, the website www.cesar-online.com. In general, the supply market of intermodal rail services is very dynamic, with significant monthly variations, therefore the figures presented below should be considered updated to a period in between the months of February and March 2012.

4.1 Interporto di Padova Interporto di Padova, operating since 1973 and currently managed by the company "Interporto Padova SpA", occupies a total area of some 2 millions square meters, wherein remarkably different but highly integrated and complementary facilities are located. About 125 companies operate within Interporto di Padova, including 80 highly specialized transport operators, logistics and materials handling providers, with an overall employment impact of about 4.200 units, of which 71.5% (about 3.000 units) related to induced activities. Since 2010 Interporto Padova S.p.A. has been operating also as dedicated Multimodal Transport Operator (MTO), apart the well-established normal terminal activities, providing directly intermodal rail services to/from some destinations, for the delivery of both intermodal loading units (containers and swap bodies) and ordinary wagons for bulk traffic. Performing such activities is made possible by the presence of adequate railway infrastructures and a dedicated terminal occupying approximately 350.000 square meters. Overall, 16 tracks are available inside the terminal, and the terminals are connected to the national freight station of Padua, which occupies a total area of 150.000 square meters and has in turn 21 tracks dedicated to freight traffic.

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With reference to the intermodal rail services, 31 pairs of trains/week (Table 13) were surveyed based on data collected for the current year. Amongst them, 23 trains connect national origins- destinations (74% of total), 4 to the Netherlands (13% of total), 3 to Slovakia (10% of total), 1 to Great Britain (3% of total), as shown in Figure 8. Most of the services are operated as direct connections: a relevant exception is the service to/from Bari (gateway at Interporto Bologna), whilst Interporto di Padova acts as a gateway for the service to/from Slovenia, consolidating a traffic share to/from the terminal of Milan Segrate. Importantly, most of the destinations served by Interporto di Padova are maritime (container) terminals, therefore a main market segment is represented by the inland leg of the container transport chain. In that respect, a relevant share of the container traffic to/from ports is generated by the repositioning of empty containers from Tyrrhenian ports towards North-Eastern Italy.

Table 13 – Intermodal rail services to/from Interporto di Padova (update February 2012)

trains/day (typical week) direction Country Terminal notes M T W T F S total Bari Lamasinata 1 1 1 3 gateway via Bologna Genova Voltri 1 1 1 1 4 Italy La Spezia 1 2 1 2 2 1 9 Livorno Calambrone 1 1 1 3 Trieste 1 1 1 1 4

arrival Netherlands Rotterdam 1 1 1 1 4 Slovakia Ljubljana 1 1 1 3 gateway to Milan Segrate Great Britain Hams Hall 1 1 total 31 Bari Lamasinata 1 1 1 3 gateway via Bologna Genova Voltri 1 1 1 1 4 Italy La Spezia 1 2 1 2 2 1 9 Livorno Calambrone 1 1 1 3 Trieste 1 1 1 1 4

Netherlands Rotterdam 1 1 1 1 4 departure Slovakia Ljubljana 1 1 1 3 gateway to Milan Segrate Great Britain Hams Hall 1 1 total 31

Source: calculations based on data from Interporto di Padova, www.cesar-online.com, logistics and multimodal operators, railway companies.

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% analysis of intermodal rail services to/from Interporto di Padova by origin/destination

3%

10%

13% Great Britain Italy Netherlands Slovakia

74%

Figure 8 – % analysis of intermodal rail services to/from Interporto di Padova by origin/destination

With reference to the evolution of the intermodal rail services over the time, data in Table 14 show that the current supply of intermodal services at the Interporto di Padova is slightly higher than year 2009, reflecting an ongoing recovery, despite the strong crisis currently faced by the railway industry in addition to the economic downturn.

Table 14 – Evolution of intermodal rail services to/from Interporto di Padova – 2005-2012 period (trains/week)

Evolution of intermodal rail services from Interporto di Padova – 2005-2012 period (trains/week) Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 58 69 61 45 30 31 Evolution of intermodal rail services to Interporto di Padova – 2005-2012 period (trains/week) Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 46 58 58 39 23 31

For the purposes of this study, is also important to emphasize that Interporto di Padova is playing a particularly active role towards a strong expansion policy, focused on creating more stable and effective connections with the ports of NAPA. For instance, In particular, a transport experiment based on a 505-meters block train capable of carrying 700 tons (corresponding to 72 TEUs including high cube containers) has been recently8 carried out between Padua and the port of Koper: in more detail, the first three trains were made with wagons provided by the Slovenian railways and locomotives by Trenitalia Cargo and Adria Kombi, in order to transport empty containers on behalf of Maersk and CMA-CGM from Koper to Padua. The service is now on demand - directly managed by Interporto di Padova as multimodal operator - and has no synergy with other ports of NAPA, however with an obvious interest for potential future service enhancements and enlargements. In addition, cooperation agreements were signed with the Venice Port Authority in order to identify potential areas of common interest, especially related to the feasibility of a rail intermodal freight

8 Il Piccolo newspaper, news of February 24, 2012, online edition. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 39

link between Padua and Venice, maintained as strategic by the Venice Port Authority in the context of the development plan of the off-shore terminal.

The role of Ljubljana is also becoming increasingly strategic as a possible gateway to serve more effectively widespread destinations throughout the Balkans. Finally, another promising area of perspective traffic expansion refers to the rail trade of bulk and non unitized general cargo freight, e.g. with trains to/from southern Italy carrying mineral water and trains carrying beams produced by Cimolai.

4.2 Interporto di Verona The logistic center and freight village of Verona Quadrante Europa (QE), operating since 1974 and managed by the Consorzio ZAI (Consorzio Zona Agricola Industriale), extends over an area of about 2,5 million square meters, with an envisaged further expansion of 1,7 million square meters, i.e. an expected increase of about 68% of the current surface. Infrastructures related to intermodal rail transport occupy a total area of 260.000 square meters, divided into three separate terminals: intermodal terminal (160.000 m²), Interterminal (50.000 m²), Compact Terminal (50.000 m²). Overall, the intermodal area is equipped with 88 tracks, including: 24 for arrival/departure, 7 for trains pickup/delivery, 12 for inner circulation, 18 for intermodal loading/unloading, 7 for bulk/general cargo loading/unloading, 5 for recovery, 15 feeder branchs. The unique position of Verona QE, its key role in intermodal rail traffic and the quality of the related infrastructure and services are internationally recognized: for instance, Verona QE it is ranked first by DGG (Deutsche GVZ - Gesellschaft) in its annual ranking of the leading freight villages in Europe.

From the point of view of the intermodal rail services, based on data collected for the current year, a total of 242 weekly direct train services were surveyed for the relevant areas of the TRANSITECTS project. In addition, using the connections offered through numerous gateways in central Europe, there are additional 167 weekly services to/from the relevant areas of the TRANSITECTS project.

In terms of target international markets, the Germany is the main partner, with a market share of 78%, Eastern Europe (Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary) follows with 7,6%, Austria with 5 % and Denmark with 3,4%, whilst the remaining 7% is divided among smaller destinations. The type and the nature of the relevant intermodal traffic for Verona QE is mainly continental, i.e. devoted to supplying intra-European origin-destination pairs with little involvements in maritime-based transport chains.

Notably, also for Verona QE – similarly with the situation of Interporto di Padova – the bulk and non unitized general cargo market segments play a significant role for the rail traffic: by way of an example, it is worth mentioning the 6 pairs of car-carrier trains/week along the relationship with Monaco North, operated by Rail Traction Company. Finally, it should be noted that there is a partial overlap with the Ökombi traffics to/from the Interporto di Trento, also located along the Brenner axis in a favourable position.

4.3 Interporto di Bologna In order to provide for a comparison with the network of intermodal services related to Interporto di Padova and Verona QE, the weekly direct and gateway intermodal rail services to/from the Interporto di Bologna were taken into account. Specifically, 166 active direct services and 66 gateway

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services have been surveyed: mainly, the target market of the direct services is actually national, with a significant presence of both container traffic (i.e. to/from ports) and swap bodies (e.g. along the Pomezia-Nola route and towards some terminals in the North-West of Italy). The international markets are mainly accessible through gateway services, mainly based on Verona QE.

4.4 Summary of existing services Summing up the services previously analyzed for each individual freight village to/from the main areas of interest of the TRANSITECTS project, the Veneto region is served by 475 train services per week, substantially covering central Europe with both direct and gateways services (Figure 9). In particular, the absolute values and the market shares of the main Countries of origin/destination (Figure 10) are: 123 to/from Germany (54,7% of total), 40 internal to Italy (17,8%), 14 to/from Sweden (7,6%), 17 towards the Netherlands (6,2%), 11 to/from Belgium (4,9%), 8 to/from Denmark (3,6%), 5 to/from Norway (2,2%), 3 to/from Slovakia (1,3%), 3 to/from the Czech Republic (1,3 %), 1 to/from Great Britain (0,4%).

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Figure 9 – Map of existing intermodal rail services between Veneto freight villages and the TRANSITECTS relevant area (update February 2012)

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% analysis of intermodal rail services between Veneto freight villages and relevant TRANSITECTS countries by origin/destination

2,2% Italy 1,3% 7,6% Slovakia 17,8% Netherlands 1,3% Great Britain 6,2% Belgium 0,4% Denmark Germany 3,6% 54,7% Czech Republic Swedwn Norway

Figure 10 - % analysis of intermodal rail services between Veneto freight villages and relevant TRANSITECTS countries by origin/destination

5 Freight transport demand in Veneto

5.1 International trade This section provides for an overall picture of the international trade relations of the Veneto region, specifically particularized within the context of the international Italian trade and with respect to the objectives of the study. In order to take account properly of the relevant trends in international markets, and to support more effective the forecasts presented in the study, the data analysis is extended to the period 2006-2011.

The main data source adopted as reference for this study is the ISTAT Coeweb database specifically dealing with foreign trade9, which provides trade data in value and quantity with different levels of territorial breakdown10 and further disaggregation by type, time and mode of transport. In accordance with the objectives of this study, attention was focused mainly on the following types of data:

• import/export data in quantities (tons/year):  at national level from/to the rest of the world, disaggregated by product category and by main world economic areas;

9 It should be emphasized that the origin-destination matrices underlying the study are based also on EUROSTAT data sources, on previous studies and research conducted by the project team and on proprietary databases for analysis of freight flows at the Euro-Mediterranean level. For more details the reader may refer to the Report on the methodological background of the study. 10 The rest of the world is divided into the following areas: European Union (27 Countries); non-EU European countries, North Africa, Other African countries, North America, Central and South America, Middle East, Central Asia, East Asia, Oceania and others territories. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 43

 at the Veneto level from/to the rest of the world, disaggregated by product category and by main world economic areas; • import/export data in currency (€/year):  at national level from/to the rest of the world, disaggregated by product category, by main world economic areas and by mode of transport;  at the Veneto level from/to the rest of the world, disaggregated by product category, by main world economic areas and by mode of transport;  at the provincial level for the Veneto region from/to the rest of the world, disaggregated by product category and by main world economic areas.

Analyses performed are reported separately in each of the following subsections.

5.1.1 Transport data in quantity for Italy (national level) In 2011 trade between Italy and the rest of the world (Table 15) reached a total amount of about 427 million tons, a slight decrease compared to 2010 (-6,5 million tons, corresponding to -1,5%) but a clear recovery if compared to 2009 (+34,5 million tons, corresponding to +8%). An analysis of trade data over the entire observation period (2006 - 2011) shows that the crisis affecting the Italian economy does not exhibit still any clear recovery trend: indeed, despite a very small reprise in the last two years, trade flows remain still below the absolute 2007 figures.

Table 15 – Trade flows between Italy and the rest of the world (by main economic areas) from 2006 to 2011 (tons/year)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Country export export export export export export Non-EU European Countries 69.052.856 69.920.272 63.610.568 59.516.888 62.192.207 60.831.960 Northern Africa 49.640.056 49.893.391 49.627.759 43.433.578 41.411.667 23.539.762 Other African Countries 17.570.499 17.264.325 17.499.348 14.433.323 15.139.318 21.071.715 North America 22.438.349 22.947.769 22.583.341 16.781.492 19.141.202 20.300.301 Central and South America 29.143.365 30.281.277 28.837.966 18.552.755 23.251.946 26.670.540 Middle East 43.004.863 46.263.616 44.457.567 39.682.289 52.345.204 56.193.098 Centra Asia 9.434.657 8.765.581 8.773.813 7.215.808 9.263.794 10.761.418 Far East 26.845.198 28.162.183 27.379.172 22.123.314 25.583.077 25.026.796 Oceania 8.743.490 8.700.757 7.971.971 4.057.485 4.977.047 5.182.303 European Union (27 Members) 191.495.726 205.522.224 185.055.540 166.618.722 180.062.791 177.331.032 Total 467.369.059 487.721.396 455.797.046 392.415.655 433.368.253 426.908.925 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

As shown in Figure 11, in 2011 the main trading partner was the European Union (27 Countries), which accounts alone for the 42% of the total trade, followed by other non-EU European states (market share equal to 14%) and the Middle East (13%).

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Main trade partners for Italy - market shares 2011

14% Non-EU European Countries Northern Africa

5% Other African Countries 42% North America 5% Central and South America

5% Middle East Centra Asia 6% Far East Oceania 13% European Union (27 Members) 6% 3% 1%

Figure 11 – Main trade partners for Italy in 2011 (percentages calculated on overall trade flows – sum of import and export – expressed in quantities)

An analysis of trade data over the entire 2006-2011 observation period (Figure 12) shows how those market shares are quite consolidated, with quite stable values throughout the period but North African market which, especially in the last year, has showed a significant decrease mainly caused by the well-known geopolitical events.

Looking at the main commodities traded (absolute values in Table 16 and percentages for the year 2011 in Figure 13), analysis of data collected in 2011 shows that the most important commercial sectors are the manufacturing sector (which covers alone the 57 % of trade) and extraction (with 32% of trade). Furthermore, a detailed analysis for the whole 2006 to 2011 period (not reported here for the sake of brevity) shows that the weight of each commodity over the total trade is very stable.

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International trade relationships for Italy from 2006 to 2011 100%

90%

80% Oceania 70% Centra Asia Central and South America 60% North America

50% Other African Countries Far East 40% Northern Africa Middle East 30% Non-EU European Countries 20% European Union (27 Members)

10%

0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 12 – International trade relationships for Italy from 2006 to 2011: market shares for the main relevant world economic areas (percentages calculated on trade flows in quantities, sum of import and export)

Table 16 – Main commodities traded between Italy and the rest of the world (tons/year)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Total Commodity class export export export export export export Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing 26.519.036 26.530.230 25.141.840 24.858.447 27.454.615 27.788.765 158.292.932 Extraction of mineral products from mining a nd qua rry 168.304.011 169.083.443 154.227.524 136.809.996 142.849.780 136.976.120 908.250.874 Products of manufacturing activity 258.648.018 277.863.810 260.414.194 218.741.700 248.493.132 245.192.979 1.509.353.832 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 20 25 10 11 9 26 102 Products of waste management activity 12.475.383 12.112.051 12.909.285 9.573.704 12.120.815 14.013.628 73.204.865 Products of information and communication a c tivitie s 654.832 816.044 829.820 689.522 702.965 721.763 4.414.946 Products of professional, scientific and technical activities 901 333 342 287 273 217 2.353 Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun 3.177 3.616 3.287 2.570 3.231 2.988 18.869 Products of other services 121 91 159 200 105 42 718 Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other 763.562 1.311.753 2.270.584 1.739.217 1.743.329 2.212.398 10.040.842 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

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Main commodities traded by Italy - 2011

0% Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing 0%

3% 7% Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry

Products of manufacturing activity

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning

32% Products of waste management activity

Products of information and communication activities

57% Products of professional, scientific and technical activities

Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun

Products of other services

Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other

Figure 13 - Main commodities traded between Italy and the rest of the world: percentages by relevant commodities calculated on total trade in quantity for year 2011

5.1.2 Transport data in quantity for Veneto (regional level) In 2011 trade between the Veneto region and the rest of the world (Table 17) was approximately 39,6 million tons, a slight decrease if compared to 2010 (approximately 40,8 million tons) but clearly higher if compared to 2009 (37,9 million tons). However, the overall decrease in trade equals about 16,7% if compared to the best figure of the last five years (year 2007 with 46,2 million tons). This decrease is in line with the corresponding national figure (-14,4% in 2011 if compared to 2007), for which imports/exports made by the Veneto Region in 2011 represent approximately 9,3% of total international Italian trade.

Table 17 - Trade flows between Veneto and the rest of the world (by main economic areas) from 2006 to 2011 (tons/year)

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Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Country export export export export export export Non-EU European Countries 7.669.828 7.012.280 6.415.908 6.019.156 5.706.420 6.166.995 Northern Africa 3.569.488 3.621.528 3.073.336 3.604.104 3.702.963 1.645.166 Other African Countries 1.230.102 1.803.414 1.554.419 1.132.295 1.198.306 1.238.054 North America 1.292.216 1.408.927 1.112.407 973.482 1.207.640 957.626 Central and South America 1.954.995 2.006.388 2.188.767 1.622.409 1.000.760 1.163.997 Middle East 1.495.662 1.149.815 1.258.395 1.534.906 1.490.687 1.799.000 Centra Asia 852.280 1.031.188 839.969 683.533 859.400 603.477 Far East 3.438.313 3.593.797 3.467.991 2.537.000 2.003.096 2.223.301 Oceania 268.200 191.164 211.825 183.599 180.284 173.691 European Union (27 Members) 23.148.241 24.391.538 22.493.361 19.603.401 23.417.315 23.636.595

Total 44.919.324 46.210.041 42.616.376 37.893.884 40.766.869 39.607.901

Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

Looking at macro global flows, the data collected (Figure 14) shows that in 2011 the main trading partner of the Veneto region was the European Union (27 Countries), which accounts alone for 60% of trade, followed by other non-EU European countries (with 16%) and East Asia (with 6%). This finding is in line with that of the entire national territory, although with some noticeable differences, e.g. the slight larger share of the European market.

16% Non-EU European Countries Northern Africa 4% Other African Countries

3% North America 2% Central and South America 3% Middle East Centra Asia 60% 5% Far East Oceania 6% 1% European Union (27 Members)

0%

Figure 14 - Main trade partners for Veneto in 2011 (percentages calculated on overall trade flows – sum of import and export – expressed in quantities)

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The analysis of these data for the entire 2006-2011 period (Figure 15) shows that the European market has gradually increased its market share, mainly replacing the decrease of competitiveness of the North African market, literally collapsed last year.

100%

90%

80% Oceania

70% Centra Asia Middle East 60% Central and South America 50% North America Other African Countries 40% Northern Africa 30% Far East Non-EU European Countries 20% European Union (27 Members) 10%

0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 15 - International trade relationships for Veneto from 2006 to 2011: market shares for the main relevant world economic areas (percentages calculated on trade flows in quantities, sum of import and export)

Looking at the main commodities traded by the Veneto region (Table 18 for the absolute values and Figure 16 for the percentage splits), the leading commercial sector still remains the manufacturing sector, which alone covers 69% of trade between the Veneto and the rest of the world. Other relevant areas are represented by the mining (14%) and agriculture (12%) sectors. The importance of manufacturing and agricultural sectors is also highlighted if compared with the corresponding national figures, with respect to which the Veneto market shares are respectively +12% and +5% higher with respect to the national average.

Table 18 - Main commodities traded between Veneto and the rest of the world, 2006-2011 period (tons/year)

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Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Total Commodity class export export export export export export Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing 4.063.528 4.053.291 3.915.001 3.806.698 4.501.585 4.805.067 25.145.169 Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry 9.634.398 9.966.344 8.452.814 8.522.358 7.581.349 5.430.804 49.588.068 Products of manufacturing activity 29.679.127 30.429.418 28.419.254 24.107.204 26.840.102 27.387.511 166.862.615 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Products of waste management a c tivity 1.385.451 1.575.494 1.640.590 1.297.286 1.684.734 1.801.478 9.385.034 Products of information and communication activities 130.730 146.680 138.953 120.471 124.902 136.488 798.223 Products of professional, scientific and technical activities 222 51 35 37 37 10 391 Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun 450 522 453 267 453 459 2.603 Products of other services 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other 25.417 38.240 49.276 39.563 33.707 46.084 232.287 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

100% Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other 90% Products of other services 80% Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun 70%

60% Products of professional, scientific and technical activities

50% Products of information and communication activities

40% Products of waste management activity

30% Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 20% Products of manufacturing activity 10% Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry 0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing

Figure 16 - Main commodities traded between Veneto and the rest of the world: percentages by relevant commodities calculated on total trade in quantity for year 2011

5.1.3 Transport data in value for Italy (national level) This section reports some key data on the trade flows in currency (“value” in the following) corresponding to the quantitative figures presented in Section 4.1.1. Firstly, Table 19 shows the balance of trade between Italy and the rest of the world (by main economic areas) for each year of the 2006-2011 period: in particular, the 2011 ended with a deficit of about 2,6 billion Euros, though with a substantial reduction if compared with the deficit of some 7,3 billion Euros observed in 2010. From a general standpoint, the balance of trade does not exhibit a constant trend, with rather fast variations between positive (from 2007 to 2009) and negative (2006 and from 2010 to 2011) periods.

Table 19 - Trade flows between Italy and the rest of the world (by main economic areas) from 2006 to 2011 (€/year, negative values refer to import flows)

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Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Country export export export export export export Non-EU European Countries 6.804.139.938 8.519.675.717 12.214.035.153 8.365.113.489 9.092.431.577 14.369.909.280 Northern Africa -9.805.828.523 -8.265.650.401 -8.327.852.348 -1.285.480.542 -2.501.168.073 -67.459.064 Other African Countries -1.518.192.656 -1.979.016.735 -2.313.475.496 212.613.763 -1.251.171.633 -4.531.986.347 North America 15.154.803.147 14.361.377.131 12.173.376.098 8.515.700.899 10.046.927.780 10.788.036.499 Central and South America 478.351.937 1.382.499.129 1.375.632.689 1.741.363.098 1.172.335.323 2.106.774.277 Middle East -1.435.851.836 701.376.213 -693.121.067 3.005.018.502 -4.894.866.607 -10.569.700.623 Centra Asia -3.396.787.410 -2.511.166.246 -2.876.470.979 -446.226.841 -2.124.099.078 -4.309.089.235 Far East -13.350.695.447 -15.857.489.666 -17.122.866.246 -11.137.022.051 -19.708.314.988 -17.066.274.353 Oceania 1.889.728.144 2.382.216.609 3.324.419.147 2.534.570.823 2.846.099.376 3.198.660.163 European Union (27 Members) 1.381.430.151 6.600.755.243 12.811.564.238 -2.043.544.402 -2.568.752.040 3.513.206.028 Total -3.798.902.555 5.334.576.994 10.565.241.189 9.462.106.738 -9.890.578.363 -2.567.923.375 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

In turn, Figure 17 shows the market share (in percentage) for each of the main world economic areas within the Italian international trade, whilst Figure 18 shows the corresponding balance of trade for each world economic area: all calculations are referred to year 2011. Notably, a substantial balance of trade between the value of goods imported and exported with the European Union (the main Italian trade partner) can be observed, differently of the passive balance observed with East Asia and the Middle East and the positive balance exchanges with other European countries and North America.

The analysis of the data related to the entire 2006-2011 period (Figure 19) allows checking relevant changes over the years for the balance of trade between Italy and the rest of the world: interestingly, the balance is approximately constant for some economic areas, whilst significant fluctuations for other areas can be observed over the years.

In terms of the value of imports/exports disaggregated by commodity, from the analysis of Table 20 (absolute values) and Figure 20 (percentages) clear trade patterns can be identified: for instance, a strong propensity towards export in the manufacturing sector and the need of importing almost all energy products for domestic needs can be observed.

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100,0%

Oceania 90,0% 3,9% 7,7% 6,9% 80,0% Centra Asia 5,0% 9,5% 70,0% 13,4% Other African Countries 12,2% 60,0% 7,7% Northern Africa

50,0% Central and South America 40,0% North America 30,0% 54,7% 56,0% Middle East 20,0%

10,0% Non-EU European Countries

0,0% Far East

import European Union (27 Members) export

Figure 17 – Main International trade partners for Italy (by world economic areas) for year 2011 (market shares calculated on the value of trade)

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50% export import 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Non-EU Northern Other African North Central and Middle East Centra Asia Far East Oceania European European Africa Countries America South Union (27 Countries America Members)

Figure 18 – Import/export balance between Italy and main world economic areas for year 2011 (percentages calculated on trade value)

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50

40

30

20 Oceania Centra Asia

10 Central and South America North America Other African Countries 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Far East

BillionEuros Northern Africa -10 Middle East Non-EU European Countries -20 European Union (27 Members)

-30

-40

-50

Figure 19 – Trends of trade relationships between Italy and main world geographic areas for the period 2006-2011 (flows in billions of €, absolute values)

Table 20 - Balance of trade for Italy disaggregated by commodity, period 2006-2011 (values in €, negative values refer to import flows)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Commodity class export export export export export export Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing -5.520.118.931 -5.401.132.480 -5.500.714.093 -5.068.159.353 -5.468.774.875 -7.184.669.833 Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry -39.226.819.013 -39.519.826.698 -45.229.596.775 -30.208.516.237 -40.847.616.815 -49.419.814.417 Products of manufacturing activity 43.763.776.146 52.856.090.390 62.462.832.445 45.910.243.823 37.598.057.144 55.965.697.226 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning -656.278.958 -615.985.399 13.190 -878.329.312 12.107 133.153 Products of waste management a c tivity -2.505.780.895 -2.501.907.620 -2.922.272.304 -1.178.192.515 -2.508.579.953 -3.764.073.365 Products of information and communication activities -55.996.744 12.018.534 67.712.623 63.942.978 245.267.445 202.605.768 Products of professional, scientific and technical activities 9.497.096 7.580.189 7.462.865 23.663.088 24.666.201 19.382.687 Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun 49.407.012 45.185.009 72.620.693 27.318.959 115.829.874 100.860.115 Products of other services -6.192.033 -3.823.995 -7.745.258 -6.506.525 -6.491.617 -3.708.651 Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other 349.603.765 456.379.064 1.614.927.803 776.641.832 957.052.126 1.515.663.942 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

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60% Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other

Products of other services 40%

Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun

20% Products of professional, scientific and technical activities

Products of information and communication activities 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Products of waste management activity

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning -20%

Products of manufacturing activity

-40% Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry

Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing -60%

Figure 20 – Trend of overall Italian balance of trade by commodity from 2006 to 2011 (percentages calculated on trade flows in value)

5.1.4 Transport data in value for Veneto (regional level) The balance of trade between the Veneto region and the rest of the world in 2011 (Table 21) exhibited a surplus of about 9,7 billion Euros, an increase of about 2,4 billion Euros with respect to 2010. Overall, during the time period 2006-2011, the balance of the Veneto region, contrarily to the national case, has always been positive, despite a slight decline in years 2009-2010. Notably, the figure for the last year was also close to maximum of the period reached in 2007. Furthermore, with the already mentioned exception of North Africa, the balance of trade with each other relevant world economic zone remained constant over the last years.

Table 21 - Trade flows between Italy and the rest of the world (by main economic areas) from 2006 to 2011 (€/year, negative values refer to import flows)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Country export export export export export export Non-EU European Countries 1.911.475.553 2.589.210.115 3.285.796.283 2.493.722.097 2.708.016.690 2.978.724.588 Northern Africa -675.627.238 -561.277.547 -329.061.968 -235.626.876 -564.263.007 33.586.592 Other African Countries -272.325.699 -244.660.463 -53.501.405 -45.648.645 -57.664.295 185.250 North America 3.086.091.848 2.863.002.083 2.635.181.529 1.895.823.870 2.637.321.080 2.695.413.688 Central and South America 499.461.588 752.356.402 279.218.611 201.905.831 452.362.198 574.950.790 Middle East 1.153.173.015 1.484.817.307 1.623.266.978 1.254.947.770 1.336.092.180 1.213.430.225 Centra Asia -436.759.354 -582.047.739 -546.367.813 -410.015.276 -648.161.862 -477.409.123 Far East -1.522.078.179 -2.092.263.474 -2.149.663.852 -1.610.433.716 -1.984.465.603 -1.368.363.244 Oceania 361.108.010 363.700.536 459.023.817 330.162.114 388.571.900 413.225.282 European Union (27 Members) 5.167.811.821 6.140.268.170 5.307.948.132 4.740.518.349 3.025.023.599 3.620.889.814 Total 9.272.331.365 10.713.105.390 10.511.840.312 8.615.355.518 7.292.832.880 9.684.633.862 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

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In terms of disaggregation by world economic areas, Figure 21 and Figure 22 provide respectively the market share and the trade of balance for each area with respect to the Veneto region. In particular, it is worth underlying the slight relative majority of imports from the EU-27 and the clear majority of imports from East Asia. Furthermore, other non-EU European Countries and North America show a very positive balance of trade, leading to the well known effects on the penetration of the Tyrrhenian ports in the theoretical catchment area of the NAPA ports.

100,0%

Oceania 1,8% 8,4% 80,0% 6,8% Centra Asia

13,9% 12,7% Other African Countries

60,0% 8,5% Northern Africa

Central and South America 40,0% 64,2% Middle East

59,1% North America 20,0%

Non-EU European Countries

0,0% Far East

import European Union (27 Members) export

Figure 21 - Main International trade partners for Veneto (by world economic areas) for year 2011 (market shares calculated on the value of trade)

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100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% export

30% import

20%

10%

0% Non-EU Northern Other African North Central and Middle East Centra Asia Far East Oceania European European Africa Countries America South Union (27 Countries America Members)

Figure 22 - Import/export balance between Veneto and main world economic areas for year 2011 (percentages calculated on trade value)

With reference to the value of the import/export by commodity traded by the Veneto with the rest of the world, the analysis of Table 22 (absolute values for the period 2006-2011) and Figure 23 (market shares in value for the year 2011) highlights that the manufacturing sector is undoubtedly the most important for the economy of Veneto, accounting respectively for 89,9% of the imports and for 97,2% of exports.

Table 22 - Balance of trade for Veneto disaggregated by commodity, period 2006-2011 (values in €, negative values refer to import flows)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Commodity class export export export export export export Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing -979.452.438 -903.018.932 -922.466.433 -885.368.416 -1.037.184.513 -1.397.236.590 Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry -1.534.724.120 -1.604.764.359 -1.628.190.355 -1.400.310.519 -1.735.464.977 -1.269.364.437 Products of manufacturing activity 11.816.174.292 13.316.542.886 13.095.226.806 10.790.927.580 10.033.337.612 12.378.591.302 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning -3.253.460 67 0 987 2.724 2.197 Products of waste management a c tivity -239.662.444 -320.397.457 -308.459.343 -106.189.065 -194.752.327 -293.406.704 Products of information and communication activities 193.884.552 220.784.950 228.852.925 190.530.086 194.944.298 215.089.461 Products of professional, scientific and technical activities 2.517.833 1.170.780 1.029.193 895.006 817.104 636.756 Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun 5.827.074 -18.555.375 4.064.187 6.140.825 5.543.447 13.149.758 Products of other services -462.904 251.988 -3.644 -6.685 -41.954 -65.495 Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other 11.482.980 21.090.842 41.786.976 18.735.719 25.631.466 37.237.614 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

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100,0% 1,2% 0,4% Freight declared as onboard stores, miscellaneous goods, other

98,0% 1,6% Products of other services 0,1% 96,0% 5,4% Products of arts, sports, entertainment and fun

94,0% Products of professional, scientific and technical activities

92,0% 3,3% Products of information and communication activities

Products of waste management activity 90,0% 97,2%

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 88,0% 89,9% Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing

86,0% Extraction of mineral products from mining and quarry

84,0% Products of manufacturing activity import

export

Figure 23 - Import/export by commodity for Veneto in 2011 (percentages calculated on trade flows in value)

5.1.5 Transport data in value for the provinces of Veneto (NUTS3 level) The release of the ISTAT Coeweb database in value (i.e. national currency) allows, differently of that in quantity, checking the international trade patterns also at a NUTS3 geographical level, i.e. at the province level for Veneto region. The total value of exports for the provinces of Veneto in 2011 was approximately 50,3 billion Euros (Table 23 and graphically in Figure 24), with an increase with respect to the 2010 (lowest point of the crisis) of around 4,7 billion Euros (+ 9.3%), i.e. reaching values analogous in practice to year 2008. Looking separately at each province, the most performing result in 2011 was exhibited by Vicenza (29% of the total), followed by Treviso (21%), Verona (18%) and Padua (16%): the area formed by these four provinces, therefore, represents more than 84% of the overall exports of Veneto region. As a whole, within the reference period 2006-2011, all the provinces reached in 2009 a minimum before a reprise in the last two years, even if with different recovery intensities. Finally, the distribution percentages of exports across the provinces (not shown here for the sake of brevity) have been remaining substantially constant since 2006, with just insignificant (1% -2%) yearly variations.

Table 23 – Overall international trade exports from provinces in Veneto: 2006-2011 trend in value

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Values of exports for provinces in Veneto Year Province 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Verona 7.770.060.066 8.344.361.324 8.706.073.145 7.077.071.844 8.111.719.468 8.975.591.711 Vicenza 13.823.635.398 14.961.005.820 14.847.001.531 11.201.653.700 13.068.529.903 14.494.518.472 Belluno 2.403.910.928 2.681.380.167 2.484.713.069 2.060.850.361 2.466.242.451 2.689.642.684 Treviso 9.819.435.933 10.630.429.975 10.809.737.796 8.945.640.840 9.903.463.940 10.699.557.536 Venezia 4.494.732.561 5.304.661.284 4.559.906.734 3.302.090.543 3.813.831.205 3.824.105.041 Padova 7.019.207.624 7.615.028.971 7.304.229.932 5.759.565.714 7.153.485.681 8.281.243.811 Rovigo 953.325.736 1.020.367.825 1.302.365.164 892.548.865 1.096.212.814 1.317.934.418 Total 46.284.308.246 46.284.308.246 46.284.308.246 46.284.308.246 46.284.308.246 46.284.308.246 Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

16.000.000.000

14.000.000.000

12.000.000.000 Verona

10.000.000.000 Vicenza Belluno 8.000.000.000 Treviso

6.000.000.000 Venezia Padova 4.000.000.000 Rovigo

2.000.000.000

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 24 – Graphical representation of the figures reported in Table 23

A specific analysis has been then carried out with reference to the main markets of the different provinces of Veneto in import (Figure 25) and export (Figure 26) trade. The province of Verona confirms that the key trade partners are the EU27 Countries, the other non-EU Member Countries and East Asia, with a remarkably significant role played by the North American markets for export trade. The province of Vicenza, however, shows a less significant preference towards EU27 Countries, in favor of a greater redistribution towards the markets of East Asia and North America. The province of Belluno is characterized by the considerable weight of the North American market, close in magnitude to that of EU27 Countries; also remarkable is the high percentage in import of the East Asia.

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100%

90%

80%

70% Oceania Centra Asia

60% Central and South America Other African Countries

50% Northern Africa Middle East

40% North America Non-EU European Countries

30% Far East European Union (27 Members)

20%

10%

0% Verona Vicenza Belluno Treviso Venezia Padova Rovigo

Figure 25 – Market share of the main world economic areas for province of destination in Veneto, 2011 data (percentages calculated on flows in value)

100%

90%

80%

70% Oceania Centra Asia

60% Central and South America Other African Countries

50% Northern Africa Middle East

40% Far East North America

30% Non-EU European Countries European Union (27 Members)

20%

10%

0% Verona Vicenza Belluno Treviso Venezia Padova Rovigo

Figure 26 - Market share of the main world economic areas for province of origin in Veneto, 2011 data (percentages calculated on flows in value)

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The province of Treviso shows a preference towards European markets (both EU27 and non-EU Countries) and the Far East (East Asia); even in this case imports from the Far East play a significant role, just slightly below the EU27 figures. Analogous remarks can be performed for the province of Padua, e.g. with a preference towards the overall European market, which alone covers about 70% of exports. For the province of Venice the European market is prevailing in both imports and exports. Finally, for the Province of Rovigo, in addition to the European market, part of the Far East (East Asia) is a main partner.

5.1.6 Analysis of trade data disaggregated by mode of transport This paragraph complements the analyses presented so far, through a focus on the modal split of the international trade flows already discussed in the previous sections.

In general terms, as shown in Table 24 (absolute values for the period 2006-2011) and in Figure 27 (percentage values for 2011), the main mode of transport used for trade between Italy and the rest of the world in 2011 is the maritime transport, which covers 60% of trade in quantity, followed by road (17%) and railway (3%). The market share in quantity of the air transport is not significant compared to the others, but it is much more significant in terms of impact on the value of goods transported. Notably, there is a significant rate (20% of total) of the import/export flows for which the mode of transport used is not declared: this occurs only for part of the flows between Italy and the EU27 and depends on the EUROSTAT regulations. The prevalence of the maritime transport compared to the others is also confirmed by the analysis of the same data throughout the period 2006-2011 (not shown here for the sake of brevity), which shows that the market share of sea never fell below 60%, with oscillations primarily occurred between the road mode and the undeclared mode, whilst railway transport has a practically constant trend.

Table 24 – Modal split of import/export flows between Italy and the rest of the world: period 2006-2011 (data in tons/year)

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ import+ Transport mode export export export export export export Sea 293.137.950 299.096.776 284.356.545 236.805.730 261.501.798 254.739.414 Rail 17.661.929 17.889.575 17.978.286 11.327.642 10.867.998 11.583.719 Road 105.603.429 102.190.593 95.399.623 80.824.032 71.278.973 73.995.044 Air 713.137 978.748 2.173.921 1.382.747 1.155.654 1.813.293 Not Declared 40.562.482 54.454.864 50.630.432 46.640.654 88.216.604 84.455.703 Total 417.116.445 420.155.692 399.908.375 330.340.151 344.804.422 342.131.470 * "not declared" transport mode refers to trade to/from European Union Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

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20%

Sea 0% Rail Road

17% Air 60% Not Declared

3%

Figure 27 - Modal split of import/export flows between Italy and the rest of the world: 2011 shares (calculated on flows in quantities)

Figure 28 draws the modal split percentages for year 2011 (calculated again based on the total amount of transported tons) disaggregated by world economic zone: the above described trend is fully confirmed, and also clear specializations of specific transport modes to/from relevant economic zone can be immediately highlighted.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60% Not Declared 50% Air Rail 40% Road Sea 30%

20%

10%

0% Non-EU Northern Africa Other African North America Central and Middle East Centra Asia Far East Oceania European Union European Countries South America (27 Members) Countries

Figure 28 - Modal split of import/export flows between Italy and the rest of the world: detail by main world economic area for year 2011 (percentages calculated on flows in quantities)

Notably, the calculation of the modal split percentages based on the value of transported goods rather than on the quantities leads to the overall values reported in Table 25, directly comparable with the percentages in Figure 27. A straightforward comparison evidences again the importance of

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road transport (which alone accounts by 37,1%) and of air transport (which achieves a 9,1% market share), whilst the percentage of value for maritime transport (which is 26,7%) is lesser than the corresponding in quantity. Again, the rail transport becomes negligible whilst the undeclared transport mode percentages is 25,7%.

Table 25 - Modal split of export flows between Italy and the rest of the world for year 2011 (absolute values in € and percentages calculated on the flows in values)

Transport Export value % mode Sea 98.891.245.819 26,7% Rail 5.079.558.929 1,4% Road 137.385.391.834 37,1% Air 33.609.795.051 9,1% Not Declared 95.197.156.872 25,7% Total 370.163.148.505 100%

* "not declared" transport mode refers to trade to/from European Union

Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

In order to better characterize the data of Table 25, it is useful to look at the breakdown of the modal split share in value to 2011 by commodity11, shown in Figure 29. The main outcome is that air transport and rail transport become appreciable just for specific commodity categories.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10% Not Declared Air 0% Road Rail

Sea

Mail, parcels Mail,

Transport equipment Transport

made fibers; rubber and rubber fibers; made

-

Other non metallic mineral products mineral metallic non Other

equipment

Coke and refined petroleum products petroleum refined and Coke

together

Food products, beverages and tobacco beveragesand products, Food

and thorium and

Furniture; other manufactured goods n.e.c. goods manufacturedother Furniture;

plastic products ; nuclear fuel nuclear ; products plastic

Coal and lignite; crude petroleum and natural gas natural and petroleumcrude lignite; and Coal

printed matter and recorded media recorded and matter printed

optical instruments; watches and clocks and watches instruments; optical

Equipment and material utilized in the transport ofgoods transport in the utilized material and Equipment

moved for repair; other non market goodsn.e.c. market non other repair; formoved

Textiles and textile products; leather and leather products leather and leather products; textile and Textiles

Secondary raw materials; municipal wastes and other wastes other and wastes municipal materials; raw Secondary

Basic metals; fabricated metal products, except machinery and machinery exceptproducts, metal fabricated metals; Basic

straw and plaiting materials; pulp, paper and paper products; products; paper and paper pulp, materials; plaiting and straw

Chemicals, chemical products, and man and products, chemical Chemicals,

electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.; radio, television and television radio, n.e.c.; apparatus and machinery electrical

Goods moved in the course of household and office removals; office and household of course the in movedGoods

communication equipment and apparatus; medical, precision and precision medical, apparatus; andequipment communication

Grouped goods: a mixture of types of goods which are transported are which goods oftypes of mixture a Groupedgoods:

Machinery and equipment n.e.c.; office machinery and computers; and machinery officen.e.c.;equipment and Machinery

Wood and products of wood and cork (except furniture); articles of articles (exceptfurniture); cork and ofwood products and Wood baggage and articles accompanying travellers; motor vehicles being vehicles motor travellers; accompanying articles and baggage Metal ores and other mining and quarrying products; peat; uranium uranium peat; products; quarrying and mining other and ores Metal

11 The commodity classification adopted in this paragraph differs from that adopted in previous sections due to the intrinsic characteristics of the ISTAT Coeweb database. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 62

Figure 29 - Modal split of export flows between Italy and the rest of the world: detail by commodity group for year 2011 (percentages calculated on flows in values)

The same data reported at the national level can be particularized to the international trade for the region Veneto, reported in Table 26 and Figure 30 respectively in terms of absolute values (tons/year for the period 2006-2011) and of modal split percentages (calculated on the quantities transported ) for 2011. The main mode of transport used for trade between the Veneto and the rest of the world in 2011 was the maritime transport (37%), followed by road (28%) and railway (5%); as for Italy, the market share in quantity for air transport is not significant. Furthermore, about 30% of the total traded tons do not declare explicitly a transport mode. Comparing data for Veneto and for Italy, apart from the 10% increase of the undeclared transport mode, the maritime mode - although prevalent - loses his domain, mainly in favor of road transport: this also depends on the high proportion of continental flows to/from relevant markets for Veneto. In addition, the rail mode has a market share appreciably higher than the national average.

Table 26 - Modal split of import/export flows between Veneto and the rest of the world: trend for the period 2006-2011 (data in tons/year)

Year Transport mode 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sea 20.553.143 20.500.872 18.838.277 17.106.157 15.969.129 14.457.912 Rail 2.543.246 2.555.872 2.267.315 1.726.278 1.953.635 2.064.840 Road 15.321.552 14.100.802 13.648.612 11.799.703 10.749.578 10.949.933 Air 118.985 161.692 156.587 120.548 114.828 125.674 Not declared * 6.344.104 8.833.132 7.669.477 7.110.408 11.964.971 12.002.088 total 44.881.030 46.152.371 42.580.268 37.863.094 40.752.142 39.600.447 * undeclared transport mode is relevant for traffics between Veneto and EU27

Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

30% 37% Sea Rail Road Air 0% Not Declared

5% 28%

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Figure 30 - Modal split of import/export flows between Veneto and the rest of the world: percentages for year 2011 (calculated on quantities)

Figure 31 shows instead the modal split shares disaggregated by world economic zone (2011 data, percentages calculated on traded tonnage), exhibiting similar results to those at national level reported in Figure 28.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60% Not Declared 50% Air Rail 40% Road Sea 30%

20%

10%

0% Non-EU Northern Other African North America Central and Middle East Centra Asia Far East Oceania European European Africa Countries South America Union (27 Countries Members)

Figure 31 - Modal split of import/export flows between Veneto and the rest of the world: detail by main world economic area for year 2011 (percentages calculated on flows in quantities)

Similarly with the above, moving towards the evaluation of exports in value from Veneto (Table 27), the modal split shares change appreciably, with a 38,1% for road transport, 20% for maritime transport and 9,5% for air transport. Again, transport by railway becomes negligible, while the value of exports for which there is no declaration of transport mode equals the 31.7% of the total. These data, albeit with slight different percentages, are perfectly in line with the corresponding national figures.

Table 27 - Modal split of export flows between Veneto and the rest of the world for year 2011 (absolute values in € and percentages calculated on the flows in values)

Transport Export value % mode Sea 10.047.323.522 20,0% Rail 333.531.068 0,7% Road 19.159.597.046 38,1% Air 4.782.472.379 9,5% Not Declared 15.956.963.550 31,7% Total 50.279.887.565 100% * "not declared" transport mode refers to trade to/from European Union

Source: calculations based on ISTAT Coeweb data

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Finally, Figure 32 (analogous to Figure 29 referred to the national level) looks at the value of goods exported disaggregated by mode of transport and by commodity: there are no appreciable differences to be noted.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10% Not Declared Air 0% Road Rail

Sea

Mail, parcels Mail,

Transport equipment Transport

made fibers; rubber and rubber fibers; made

-

Other non metallic mineral products mineral metallic non Other

equipment

Coke and refined petroleum products petroleumrefined and Coke

together

Food products, beverages and tobacco beveragesand products, Food

and thorium and

Furniture; other manufactured goods n.e.c. goods manufacturedother Furniture;

plastic products ; nuclear fuel nuclear ; products plastic

Coal and lignite; crude petroleum and natural gas natural and petroleumcrude lignite; and Coal

printed matter and recorded media recorded and matter printed

optical instruments; watches and clocks and watches instruments; optical

Equipment and material utilized in the transport ofgoods transport in the utilized material and Equipment

moved for repair; other non market goods n.e.c.goods market non other repair; for moved

Textiles and textile products; leather and leather products leather and leather products; textile and Textiles

Secondary raw materials; municipal wastes and other wastes other and wastes municipal materials; raw Secondary

Basic metals; fabricated metal products, except machinery and machinery exceptproducts, metal fabricated metals; Basic

straw and plaiting materials; pulp, paper and paper products; products; paper and paper pulp, materials; plaiting and straw

Chemicals, chemical products, and man and products, chemical Chemicals,

electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.; radio, television and television radio, n.e.c.; apparatus and machinery electrical

Goods moved in the course of household and office removals; office and householdof course the in movedGoods

communication equipment and apparatus; medical, precision and precision medical, apparatus; and equipment communication

Grouped goods: a mixture of types of goods which are transported are which goods oftypes of mixture a goods:Grouped

Machinery and equipment n.e.c.; office machinery and computers; and machinery officen.e.c.;equipment and Machinery

Wood and products of wood and cork (except furniture); articles of articles (exceptfurniture); cork and ofwood products and Wood baggage and articles accompanying travellers; motor vehicles being vehicles motor travellers; accompanying articles and baggage Metal ores and other mining and quarrying products; peat; uranium uranium peat; products; quarrying and mining other and ores Metal

Figure 32 - Modal split of export flows between Veneto and the rest of the world: detail by commodity group for year 2011 (percentages calculated on flows in values) 5.2 National trade The current section provides for an overview of the national (i.e. internal to Italy) freight trade relevant for the territory of the Veneto region. For this aim, the main national available transport datasets (e.g. ISTAT Conto Nazionale dei Trasporti) as well as proprietary databases available to the project team have been adopted. Analyses are reported up to year 2010, the latest available from ISTAT statistics: the projection to 2012 and further forecasts to the short and medium term will be discussed below.

The total road freight transport generated by the Veneto region with national destination is shown in Table 27 for the period 2006-2010: the total traded is between the maximum of 193 million tons/year recorded in 2006 and in 2008, the minimum at 174 million tons (-9.8%) during 2009 and a reprise up to 180 million tons in 2010. Approximately 70% of those tons is traded within the Veneto, and almost 90% within the portion of Italy that includes Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy and Friuli- Venezia Giulia. Furthermore, it should be underlined that such figures do not include vehicles with a capacity lower than 3,5 tons - which often represent the majority of urban freight movements, but are not relevant for the present study - and refer to only transport made by vehicles registered in Italy. In that respect, EUROSTAT (2010) estimated the national cabotage in Italy to be less than just 0,6% of total tonnage traded by road.

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Similar considerations can be proposed for freight flows attracted by the Veneto region from other Italian destination, reported in Table 29.

ISTAT also provides origin-destination matrices at regional level for maritime transport, from which the total flows generated and attracted flows between each Italian region and Veneto are derived, reported in the following Table 30 and Table 31, again with reference to the thousands of tons/year traded within the period 2006-2010. Notably, with respect to road traffic, there is a strong imbalance between generated traffic (2,59 million tons in 2011) and attracted traffic (6,64 million tons in 2011), with the Sicily as the first region of origin/destination.

Table 28 – Tons/year generated by Veneto region by road for the period 2006-2010 (data in thousands of tons)

thousand of tons/year generated by road region of destination 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Abruzzo 630 680 617 699 550 Basilicata 56 109 107 98 95 Calabria 113 355 139 58 100 Campania 894 755 917 919 626 Emilia-Romagna 13.703 13.668 13.050 12.314 14.831 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 6.627 7.416 6.595 6.102 6.772 Lazio 1.632 1.455 1.276 1.208 1.609 Liguria 913 995 844 1.339 1.600 Lombardia 18.282 14.210 15.804 16.178 17.257 Marche 1.234 1.141 1.169 1.076 1.288 Molise 94 228 290 129 87 Piemonte 3.232 2.900 3.170 3.523 3.393 Puglia 787 759 1.322 390 586 Sardegna 19 148 93 49 42 Sicilia 137 360 336 246 246 Toscana 2.605 2.312 4.071 3.244 3.573 Trentino-Alto Adige 4.636 4.210 5.506 4.825 4.877 Umbria 578 536 457 530 616 Valle d'Aosta 6 22 1 0 3 Veneto 136.747 122.378 138.057 121.448 122.277 total 192.927 174.638 193.824 174.376 180.431

Source: calculation based on ISTAT Conto Nazionale Trasporti (National Transportation Account). Note: Values include only trips made by vehicles registered in Italy with a full load capacity greater than 3,5 tons.

Table 29 – Tons/year attracted by Veneto region by road for the period 2006-2010 (data in thousands of tons)

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thousand of tons/year attracted by road region of origin 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Abruzzo 518 438 372 515 220 Basilicata 121 117 168 160 110 Calabria 97 119 112 98 29 Campania 563 328 502 627 633 Emilia-Romagna 11.434 10.039 10.911 11.695 10.687 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 7.968 9.076 10.378 8.452 9.338 Lazio 803 691 651 853 1.064 Liguria 1.162 1.135 1.337 1.152 1.631 Lombardia 16.174 14.797 15.614 15.466 16.789 Marche 1.062 885 852 940 1.129 Molise 172 92 50 119 86 Piemonte 2.277 2.788 3.048 2.808 2.960 Puglia 1.011 1.365 1.403 343 1.083 Sardegna 25 2 30 167 255 Sicilia 173 219 313 49 354 Toscana 3.146 3.061 4.138 3.333 4.754 Trentino-Alto Adige 3.107 3.017 4.051 3.702 3.717 Umbria 573 431 438 397 586 Valle d'Aosta 14 15 0 15 0 Veneto 136.747 122.378 138.057 121.448 122.277 total 187.145 170.992 192.425 172.339 177.702

Source: calculation based on ISTAT Conto Nazionale Trasporti (National Transportation Account). Note: Values include only trips made by vehicles registered in Italy with a full load capacity greater than 3,5 tons.

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Table 30 – Tons/year generated by Veneto region by sea for the period 2006-2010 (data in thousands of tons)

thousand of tons/year generated by sea region of destination 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Abruzzo 1 5 13 15 11 Basilicata - - - - - Calabria 308 652 1.002 658 495 Campania 71 55 53 8 3 Emilia-Romagna 525 623 725 567 679 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 652 406 304 519 234 Lazio 2 0 5 52 60 Liguria 7 25 21 50 42 Lombardia - - - - - Marche 111 80 112 60 184 Molise - - - - - Piemonte - - - - - Puglia 210 114 146 264 219 Sardegna 36 93 44 39 53 Sicilia 243 229 221 300 328 Toscana 73 58 128 122 132 Trentino-Alto Adige - - - - - Umbria - - - - - Valle d'Aosta - - - - - Veneto 47 99 79 145 151 non classificate 24 30 13 8 6 total 2.310 2.469 2.866 2.807 2.597

Source: calculation based on ISTAT Conto Nazionale Trasporti (National Transportation Account).

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Table 31 – Tons/year attracted by Veneto region by sea for the period 2006-2010 (data in thousands of tons)

thousand of tons/year attracted by sea region of origin 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Abruzzo 4 5 18 25 20 Basilicata - - - - - Calabria 326 957 518 411 326 Campania 53 72 41 69 27 Emilia-Romagna 288 485 318 950 384 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 551 759 495 683 589 Lazio 45 12 62 45 105 Liguria 33 35 8 203 5 Lombardia - - - - - Marche 92 86 113 210 211 Molise 54 50 50 18 18 Piemonte - - - - - Puglia 1.736 1.972 1.644 1.653 1.475 Sardegna 694 468 907 408 652 Sicilia 3.332 3.529 3.104 3.719 2.645 Toscana 4 23 0 21 53 Trentino-Alto Adige - - - - - Umbria - - - - - Valle d'Aosta - - - - - Veneto 47 99 79 145 151 non classificate 307 222 223 88 3 total 7.566 8.774 7.580 8.648 6.664

Source: calculation based on ISTAT Conto Nazionale Trasporti (National Transportation Account).

Differently of the other modes, ISTAT does not provide national origin-destination matrices for rail transport with regional disaggregation, and therefore datasets available to the project team and dated 2007 were used to provide for an overview. Although of little significance for the study12, the results are useful for the quantification of the magnitude of rail freight transport on the total national trade to/from Veneto and for a better characterization of the modal split shares by region. Results are reported respectively in

Table 32 for tons generated and Table 33 for tons attracted.

A first general comment is that the share of rail transport is negligible, with only 2% in exports to other Italian regions and 1% in import: this figure includes, however, the inland forwarding of traffic flows to/from ports. Notably, Campania, Puglia, Toscana and Liguria offer a remarkably appreciable market share for freight railway transport to/from Veneto.

12 The estimation of national and international rail has been actually estimated in a much more detailed way with the help of mathematical models and GIS tools, as reported in the Final report of the study. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 69

Table 32 – Tons/year generated by Veneto region (all modes) for the year 2007 (data in thousands of tons) and modal split

thousand of tons/year generated in year 2007 modal market shares region of destination road sea rail total road sea rail Abruzzo 680 5 17 702 97% 1% 2% Basilicata 109 0 2 111 98% 0% 2% Calabria 355 652 96 1.104 32% 59% 9% Campania 755 55 244 1.054 72% 5% 23% Emilia-Romagna 13.668 623 256 14.547 94% 4% 2% Friuli-Venezia Giulia 7.416 406 184 8.006 93% 5% 2% Lazio 1.455 0 46 1.501 97% 0% 3% Liguria 995 25 793 1.812 55% 1% 44% Lombardia 14.210 0 693 14.903 95% 0% 5% Marche 1.141 80 5 1.226 93% 7% 0% Molise 228 0 0 228 100% 0% 0% Piemonte 2.900 0 41 2.940 99% 0% 1% Puglia 759 114 204 1.077 70% 11% 19% Sardegna 148 93 2 243 61% 38% 1% Sicilia 360 229 306 895 40% 26% 34% Toscana 2.312 58 311 2.680 86% 2% 12% Trentino-Alto Adige 4.210 0 11 4.222 100% 0% 0% Umbria 536 0 21 557 96% 0% 4% Valle d'Aosta 22 0 1 22 97% 0% 3% Veneto 122.378 99 828 123.305 99% 0% 1% total 174.638 2.439 4.057 181.134 96% 1% 2%

Source: calculation based on ISTAT data for road and sea transport and on datasets of the project team for railway. Note: road values include only freight movements by vehicles registered in Italy with a full load capacity greater than 3,5 tons, for the sea the figures refer to volumes in national cabotage, for railway they include inland forwarding to/from Italian ports.

Table 33 – Tons/year attracted by Veneto region (all modes) for the year 2007 (data in thousands of tons) and modal split

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thousand of tons/year attracted in year 2007 modal market shares region of origin road sea rail total road sea rail Abruzzo 438 5 1 444 99% 1% 0% Basilicata 117 0 2 119 99% 0% 1% Calabria 119 957 33 1.109 11% 86% 3% Campania 328 72 58 458 72% 16% 13% Emilia-Romagna 10.039 485 121 10.645 94% 5% 1% Friuli-Venezia Giulia 9.076 759 238 10.073 90% 8% 2% Lazio 691 12 3 705 98% 2% 0% Liguria 1.135 35 453 1.623 70% 2% 28% Lombardia 14.797 0 328 15.125 98% 0% 2% Marche 885 86 1 972 91% 9% 0% Molise 92 50 0 142 65% 35% 0% Piemonte 2.788 0 33 2.821 99% 0% 1% Puglia 1.365 1.972 98 3.435 40% 57% 3% Sardegna 2 468 1 471 0% 99% 0% Sicilia 219 3.529 47 3.795 6% 93% 1% Toscana 3.061 23 423 3.507 87% 1% 12% Trentino-Alto Adige 3.017 0 8 3.025 100% 0% 0% Umbria 431 0 0 431 100% 0% 0% Valle d'Aosta 15 0 0 15 100% 0% 0% Veneto 122.378 99 828 123.305 99% 0% 1% total 170.992 8.552 2.677 182.221 94% 5% 1%

Source: calculation based on ISTAT data for road and sea transport and on datasets of the project team for railway. Note: road values include only freight movements by vehicles registered in Italy with a full load capacity greater than 3,5 tons, for the sea the figures refer to volumes in national cabotage, for railway they include inland forwarding to/from Italian ports.

Finally, a more detailed analysis at the provincial level for Veneto was performed as well, using the databases and the models available to the project team. In particular, Figure 33 shows the destinations of goods generated by the provinces of the Veneto and transported by road in 2010, whilst Figure 34 shows the corresponding percentage change between years 2010 and 2008. In accordance with the other data reported above, the main basin of the national road freight traffic to/from Veneto is concentrated in the North-East, with extensions to Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna. It is also worth noting that the crisis has produced very heterogeneous absolute changes, with a contraction still evident towards the South and a partial recovery towards the main destinations of the Centre-North.

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Figure 33 – Freight transported by road generated from the provinces in Veneto: detail by province of destination for year 2010 (data in tons/year, own elaboration)

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Figure 34 – Freight transported by road generated from the provinces in Veneto: detail by province of destination, difference in absolute values between years 2010 and 2008 (data in tons/year, own elaboration)

Similar considerations can be also drawn to the national road freight flows attracted by provinces for the Veneto region, in absolute value reported for 2010 in Figure 35 and in terms of absolute changes between 2010 and 2008 in Figure 36.

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Figure 35 – Freight transported by road attracted by the provinces in Veneto: detail by province of origin for year 2010 (data in tons/year, own elaboration)

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Figure 36 – Freight transported by road attracted by the provinces in Veneto: detail by province of origin, difference in absolute values between years 2010 and 2008 (data in tons/year, own elaboration)

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6 Perspective analysis of freight flows in Veneto

6.1 National freight transport The analysis of freight traffic at national level for Italy requested specific modelling calculations also for the present scenario, since normally ISTAT publishes statistics on the transport of goods with a an average of two years delay with respect to the year of data collection13. Furthermore, also the level of detail of such data (e.g. geographical disaggregation and details by mode of transport) is not always compatible with the analyses to be performed. In addition, some data have recently taken an obvious commercial value – e.g. data related to demand patterns related to rail transport of goods, a sector wherein an increasing competition within the market is rapidly arising in Italy – and therefore the coverage of the phenomenon became partial and very aggregated as a consequence of the limited amount of data provided by the operators. In the remaining of the section, the analysis is reported firstly with reference to the total traffic (Section 2.1.1) and subsequently with a focus on rail traffic (Section 2.1.2).

6.1.1 Total trade A look at the freight demand data at national level14 allows understanding firstly the overall trend of the last years. Since data for 2011 are still not consolidated, the ISTAT Conto Nazionale Trasporti (National Transport Account) reports for the period 2007-2010 firstly a decrease of about 4,4% of the total national freight demand with respect to year 2008 during the minimum point of recession (late 2009), and then just a partial recovery: at the end of 2010, the national freight demand was still about 1,1% lower than the volumes transported in 2007.

In order to understand in more detail how the underlying patterns of national freight transport demand have changed recently, it is useful to look at the Figure 37 below, obtained using the system of mathematical models and databases used by the project team, which made it possible to make a projection for the year 2011. In particular, Figure 37 shows the network desire lines of the domestic demand for 2011 (expressed in tons/year) and the percentage change from 2007: it is clear that the demand has faced a general reduction on the entire Italian territory, albeit in a slightly different way depending on the geographical area.

The same approach has been also used to calculate demand forecasts in the medium term, useful for performing the stress test of the logistics network of Veneto. In particular, the total freight demand can be projected to a future horizon using a gravity model encompassing, amongst the explanatory variables, the regional GDP disaggregated by commodity class15: therefore, feeding the model with

13 For instance, aggregated traffic data related to railway freight demand at national level were made available just in March 2012. 14 These data are the same which the elaboration of national freight traffic to/from the Veneto reported in the Analytical report on existing data sources underlying the study is based on. 15 Until 2007, ISTAT categorized the freight statistics into five commodity groups (MB1: agricultural products and live animals, foodstuffs and fodder, MB2: crude oil, solid fuels and minerals, petroleum products, MB3: iron ore, metallurgical products, minerals, raw or manufactured and building materials; mb4: fertilizers, chemicals, coal, cellulose; MB5: machinery and equipment, vehicles, leather, textiles and clothing, other than RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 76

appropriate estimates of regional GDP, it is possible to quantify the corresponding changes in transport demand. It should be emphasized that the gravity model is calibrated separately for each commodity, for each of which different values of elasticity of demand for freight transport relative to GDP are therefore provided16.

goods), which became then eight since 2008 (MB1: agricultural products of hunting and fishing, food, beverages and tobacco; MB2: coal, coke, crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, MB3: metal ores, other mining, metal manufactures, building materials, ceramic products; MB4: chemicals, rubber and plastics; MB5: products of the textile and clothing, leather products, wood and wood products, paper and paper products, furniture and other artifacts; MB6: machinery and mechanical appliances, machinery and electrical appliances, television sets, communication equipment, means of transport; MB7: secondary raw materials, waste and other waste, other goods; MB8: mail, parcels, containers, pallets, swap bodies, pallets, grouped goods, goods contained in container or swap body not identifiable). 16 The gravity model used is sensitive also to the explanatory variables related to the performances of the freight transport system: for the study it was decided not to introduce significant changes in the national transport system supply, given the recent economic stagnation. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 77

Figure 37 – Network desire lines for year 2011 (national freight demand in tons/year) and percentage variation with respect to 2007 (source: own elaboration)

For this aim, the regional GDP projections were made based on studies available in the relevant literature. In particular, in October 2011, the research department of Confcommercio published a report that estimated the average annual rates of change of population, GDP and GDP per capita of each Italian region for each year of the period 2013-2017. On the other hand, the working group already elaborated some GDP forecasts for the year 2020 for each Italian region, during the slight economic reprise in 2011, based on time series available from ISTAT and from various regional databases. In particular, such projections took into account the phenomenon of slow recovery of the regional economies after periods of crisis, which has been already observed after the economic crisis of 1993-1994 and of 2002: in both cases, indeed, the average growth rate after the crisis was around

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just 75% of that observed in normal economic conditions before the crisis. Overall, by combining the above data sources, the regional GDP variations shown in the following Table 34 have been obtained.

Table 34 – Hypothesis of GDP projection for each Italian region to years 2015/2017 and 2020

yearly average variation hypothesis on GDP growth * GDP pro capita region rates 2013-2017 multiplier w.r.t. 2007 population GDP 2015 - 2012 2017 - 2012 2020-2012 Abruzzo 0,3 0,5 1,51% 2,53% 3,31% 91,30 Basilicata 0,0 0,0 0,00% 0,00% 3,89% 95,70 Calabria 0,0 0,2 0,60% 1,00% 1,81% 95,40 Campania 0,2 0,0 0,00% 0,00% 1,88% 91,90 Emilia-Romagna 0,4 1,1 3,34% 5,62% 6,42% 93,40 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 0,4 1,0 3,03% 5,10% 6,30% 96,10 Lazio 0,5 0,4 1,20% 2,02% 3,80% 93,60 Liguria 0,2 0,6 1,81% 3,04% 4,02% 99,50 Lombardia 0,4 0,9 2,72% 4,58% 4,46% 92,90 Marche 0,4 0,7 2,11% 3,55% 6,12% 94,80 Molise 0,0 0,2 0,60% 1,00% 3,00% 97,40 Piemonte 0,3 0,7 2,11% 3,55% 4,57% 93,70 Puglia 0,3 -0,2 -0,60% -1,00% 3,00% 91,70 Sardegna 0,2 0,2 0,60% 1,00% 2,30% 95,70 Sicilia 0,1 -0,1 -0,30% -0,50% 3,15% 95,50 Toscana 0,4 0,6 1,81% 3,04% 4,10% 94,40 Trentino-Alto Adige 0,4 0,9 2,72% 4,58% 5,51% 98,00 Umbria 0,4 0,5 1,51% 2,53% 5,25% 90,80 Valle d'Aosta 0,2 0,7 2,11% 3,55% 2,87% 97,60 Veneto 0,4 0,9 2,72% 4,58% 6,48% 94,90

* forecasts for 2015 and 2017 are based on average annual rates of variations derived from ISTAT-CONFCOMMERCIO calculations. The assumption for 2020 is based on projections of the working group during the slight economic recovery of 2011.

In terms of overall national traffic, the simulations across the years show that the 1,56 billion tons/year transported in 2007 (before the crisis) will become 1,59 billion tons/year in 2015 and 1,61 billion tons/year in 2017, that is an increase of just 3,2% in 10 years. In 2020, 1,66 billion tons are expected – in the most optimistic assumptions about the economic growth – that is reaching a 6,4% increase with respect to 2007. It is worth noting that these growth trends are well below the increases underlying most of the feasibility studies for new infrastructures of regional and/or national importance directly pertaining to freight transport supply.

In more detail, variations in freight transport demand for year 2015 corresponding to the aforementioned GDP variations are represented in Figure 38 below, which also shows the percentage differences compared with respect to the 2011scenario shown in Figure 37. In general, the traffic should start growing again along all main directions, even if some trade reductions are still observed for shorter interprovincial trade, indicating that in the medium term not all regions will return back to the demand levels before the economic recession. In percentage terms, however, the market shares of national trade for the main Italian directions do not change significantly: 61,3% of trades are intra-North, 21,4% are intra-Center and South, 7,3% are from/to islands, 6,4% is between Center-North (and vice versa), 2,0% of trades are along the Tyrrhenian axis, 1,6% of trades are along the Adriatic axis.

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Figure 38 - Network desire lines for year 2015 (national freight demand in tons/year) and percentage variation with respect to 2011 (source: own elaboration)

Then, looking in detail to the traffic generated/attracted from the Veneto region, Table 35 shows the expected increases values in tons/year for years 2015, 2017 and 2020 compared to 2011: on average, they are respectively 2,5% in 2015, 5% in 2017, and 8,5% in 2020. It is useful to underline that the absolute reduction in tons generated/attracted between 2008 and 2010 exceeded approximately 13 million tons/year, so with the growth rates expected the values before the crisis will be reached just in 2017 and only from then on an overall positive growth in absolute value will be observed.

Table 35 – Absolute and percentage increases, with respect to the current scenario, of national freight demand (tons/year) generated and attracted by Veneto region for years 2015, 2017 and 2020

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variations in tons/year 2015 2017 2020 generated 5.095.858 2,47% 10.320.261 5,01% 18.065.428 8,76% attracted 4.956.220 2,42% 10.035.999 4,90% 17.644.314 8,62%

Source: own elaboration.

6.1.2 Railway freight demand In addition to the analysis of the national freight trade outlined in Section 2.1.1, for the purposes of the TRANSITECTS project it is useful also to propose a detailed assessment of the evolution of the national rail freight traffic. Looking at the average values for the period 2005-2007, i.e. prior to the 2008 economic crisis and the consequent collapse of rail market share, rail traffic in the Veneto region summed up to 8,28 million tons attracted (of which 2,24 million with national origin and 6,04 million with foreign origin) and 8,13 million tons generated (of which 3,88 million with a national destination and 4,24 million with a foreign destination)17. Notably, 70% of the total of such traffic is concentrated in only three nodes: Verona Quadrante Europa (approximately 42% of total), Interporto di Padova (17% of the total), the port of Venice (11% of total). The intra-regional traffic, consisting mostly of trips from the port of Venice to destinations internal to the Veneto, was equal to 0,61 million tons.

In Italy, from 2007 onwards, there was a total collapse of rail transport, with a decrease from 62,51 millions of train·km traded in 2007 to 58,29 millions of train·km in 2008 and down to about 40 millions in 2009 and 2010, with a further reduction in 2011 not yet quantified by consolidated data. At the same time, the market share of Trenitalia Cargo (the former public incumbent operator) decreased from 90% in 2007 to 73% in 2010: looking to the data, the decrease has been almost completely absorbed by new operators, which actually did not generate significant shares of new traffic. A similar trend can be observed for Veneto: for instance, looking at the data provided by the Province of Treviso (based on RFI data), the number of freight trains in the typical weekday running within the province decreased from 146 to 97 (-35%). A further reflection of the reduction in rail freight traveled is clearly observable in the traffic data and in the supply data presented throughout the study.

The decline in rail freight demand for has also been accompanied by a drastic reduction in the number of available terminals in the Veneto, as a consequence of the market strategies of RFI (the railway infrastructure manager in Italy), and the built of some new private (intermodal) terminals often in proximity of the regional freight villages, mainly driven by foreign investment. A consequence of the reduction of the available terminals was the complete stop of multi-client trains.

As mentioned previously, the availability of rail freight demand data become highly aggregated and not very representative since 2008: therefore, the assessment of trade quantities and patterns in 2011 and their projection to 2015 and 2020 was performed by the working group using proprietary quantitative tools: results are reported in the following Figure 39.

17 The reader may refer to L. Della Lucia, Logistica e trasporti, which provides some rail freight demand data in Veneto for year 2007. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 81

Figure 39 – Railway freight demand (thousands of tons/year and % variations) generated and attracted by Veneto region to/from the main Italian zones: 2011 values and forecasts for years 2015 and 2020

First, it should be noted that the data of Figure 3 also include rail traffic between the Veneto and the Italian ports, which therefore represent a significant share of the national rail traffic of the Veneto, accounting about 25% of total traffic attracted and about 40% of total traffic generated for the sole container market segment18. Furthermore, it is worth underlining how the demand elasticity for rail transport is greater than that of the total trade, although its contribution to the overall increase in regional demand is marginal.

18 In that respect, forecasts underlying Figure 3 represent business as usual trends with respect to the increases in traffic to/from ports, since they do not take into account the extra-traffic possibly generated by the specific scenarios described in Section 3.2. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 82

Moreover, it is important to emphasize that the structure of the Veneto regional trade is such that, in any case, just a very limited amount of its national freight demand may be captured by a purely national rail service, i.e. not related to port traffics. In that respect, Figure 40 shows the network desire lines for year 2011 related just to the provincial o-d pairs with a distance higher than 500 km and an yearly trade volume of at least 25.000 tons/year, that is reasonable minimum thresholds for the competitiveness of rail services.

Figure 40 – Network desire lines for national o-d freight demand between provinces with distance higher than 500 km and yearly volume higher than 25.000 tons: total values (red) and generated/attracted by Veneto region (blue)

Overall, the provincial o-d pairs identified through the aforementioned thresholds of attractiveness trade about 5,97 million tons/year, mainly concentrated from the North-West towards the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian directions: the Veneto provides a total contribution (sum of generated and attracted demand) of about 775 thousand tons/year, i.e. approximately 13% of the potential domestic market. Therefore, it is clear that the potential contribution of purely domestic intermodal traffic in the Veneto region alone is marginal compared to the total handled by rail in the region, in other words

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maritime-related rail traffic should be necessarily attracted in order to enhance the relevant regional intermodal infrastructures. The relevance of this tenet is further confirmed by the significant share of regional intermodal services moving empty containers from/to the ports – e.g. traffics of empties from the Tyrrhenian ports towards the Interporto di Padova – obviously not counted within the demand flows in tons described above.

In order to highlight further the structure of national freight demand relevant for the Veneto region, Figure 41 represents the highway daily trips for the average winter working day generated/attracted by Veneto region, referred to heavy vehicles (fare classes 4+5): it is clear that the most of the traffic is originated/destined within the North-East itself.

Figure 41 – Highway daily trips for the average winter working day generated/attracted by Veneto region: vehicles/day for year 2011 related to heavy vehicles (fare class 4+5)

6.2 International freight transport This paragraph provides an assessment of the international freight traffic related to the transport network of Veneto, analyzing separately the contribution of continental trade (Section 2.2.1) and then focusing on intercontinental maritime traffic (Section 2.2.2). In general, the analysis of international trade is characterized by a greater availability of datasets with respect to the national traffic, for which the assessment of the structure of trade should face the shortcomings reported in

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Section 2.1. Similarly with the above, the main focus of the analysis is the medium-term prediction of international freight traffic, by means of the same gravity modeling approach described above, i.e. correlating the elasticity of freight demand by commodity to changes both in GDP and in the performances of the transport system supply.

Preliminarily, an important trend to be underlined is the inability of Italy to recover immediately from the cycles of economic recession, as shown by data from a recent study by Banca d’Italia19 summarized in Table 36: In December 2010 the recovery trend was active worldwide (+11% with respect to the value of the maximum pre-crisis) whilst in the Italian North-East the difference with the pre-crisis period was still -8,4%.

Table 36 – Duration and amplitude of the downturn-recovery cycle for exports (source: Banca d’Italia, June 2011)

export to PIL ratio cycle - trend components pre-crisis main areas (%) in 2007 downturn (months) reduction ** expansion *** comparison * North West 33,0 19 -23,9 24,3 -5,4 North East 29,4 19 -26,3 24,3 -8,4 Centre 16,8 20 -20,2 27,6 2,3 South and Islands 11,3 18 -34,9 44,4 -6,0 Italy 23,2 19 -25,1 25,6 -6,0 World trade - 15 -20,9 40,3 11,0 * % difference between the value of December 2010 and the maximum pre-crisis ** % difference between the minimum and the pre-crisis maximum *** % difference between December 2010 value and the within-crisis minimum

6.2.1 Continental trade As for domestic demand, continental trade was projected to the medium and long term prediction horizons based on the evolution of the GDP of Countries in the study area relevant to continental traffic (e.g. mainland Europe). For this aim, a reference guidance was derived from the documents periodically published by Ernst & Young both concerning Europe and emerging economies20, as well as documents of the Conference Board Global Economic Outlook in early 201221. Further additions were then performed using data and documents produced by EUROSTAT and by the International Monetary Fund. Overall, the reported harmonized percentage changes in GDP are summarized in Table 37, which represents therefore the inputs for the gravity model used to calculate changes in freight demand.

Table 37 – GDP variations forecasts for 2015 with respect to 2011 for the main Euro-Mediterranean countries

19 Economie regionali: l’economia delle regioni italiane. Edited by Banca di Italia, Eurosistema, June 2011. 20 Ernst & Young Eurozone forecast, spring 2012 edition and Ernst & Young Rapid Growth Market forecast, winter 2012 edition. 21 The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook, January 2012 edition, available for on-line download at: http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 85

Country % GDP variation 2015-2011 Austria 5,71% Belgium 4,15% Bulgaria 2,70% Croatia 2,60% Cyprus 4,14% Czech Republic 2,70% Denmark 2,60% Estonia 16,17% Finland 9,38% France 5,19% Germany 6,55% Greece -6,62% Hungary 2,70% Iceland 2,60% Ireland 4,96% Italy 0,47% Latvia 3,40% Lithuania 3,40% Luxembourg 10,68% Macedonia 2,60% Malta 8,23% Netherlands 5,17% Norway 2,60% Poland 2,70% Portugal -4,23% Romania 2,70% Slovakia 12,15% Slovenia 5,69% Spain 0,97% Sweden 4,25% Switzerland 2,60% Turkey 3,90% United Kingdom 2,13%

Source: own elaboration based on Ernst & Young, FMI, EUROSTAT, The Conference Board datasets.

From the supply side, reference was made to prevailing planning projects and studies reported in various international cooperation projects related to the Alps (first of all, SONORA and AlpCheck2), as well as in previous surveys conducted by the project team within the study area. Overall, however, significant infrastructural projects capable to modify appreciably the performances of the freight transport system of the Veneto region were not detected.

6.2.1.1 Total trade Firstly, aggregated results of the modeling analysis are summarized in Table 38, which shows the flows in thousands of tons/year between the Veneto and the main economic areas of the European

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basin, both in the current scenario (year 2011) and in the medium and long term scenarios, to 2015 and 2020 respectively22. Overall, Central and Western Europe account for 52% of imports and 59% of exports in 2011, and such percentages do not change appreciably in the two future scenarios. The predicted growth in import demand is 4,52% in 2015 and 18,6% in 2020 compared to 2011, while the percentage changes in exports amounted to respectively 2,80% and 14,79% for 2015 and 2020 respectively.

Table 38 – Current estimates and forecast for import/export trade of Veneto region (thousands of tons/year, all modes)

import export Trade area 2011 2015 2020 2011 2015 2020 Albania, Greece and Turkey 1.301 1.383 1.571 1.361 1.408 1.566 Balkans, Romania and Bulgaria 2.209 2.353 2.735 1.437 1.496 1.708 Lower Countries 1.653 1.705 1.876 1.262 1.289 1.423 Denmark and Scandinavia 524 544 622 433 444 501 East Europe 1.561 1.682 1.961 1.067 1.123 1.279 Central Europe 5.687 5.857 6.483 4.330 4.421 4.894 Western Europe 5.143 5.321 5.919 4.394 4.499 5.007 Russia and Baltic 2.492 2.667 3.231 302 315 366 total 20.570 21.511 24.398 14.586 14.995 16.743

Source: own elaboration.

In order to infer about the context underlying the changes in demand provided by Table 38, it is interesting to look at the trend of network desire lines of freight demand between Italy and relevant parts of Continental Europe in 2020 - thus highlighting the most of the variations with respect to current scenario - shown in Figure 42, which shows that the most significant demand increases are observed towards Eastern Europe and the Balkans, i.e. along the most relevant direction for potential traffics crossing the Veneto region.

On the other hand, looking at the overall series of Alpine crossing freight data (Table 39), it is worth noting that around 65,5 million tons crossed the Austrian passes (Brenner and Tarvisio) in 2010, corresponding to 45% total of goods traveled through the Alps. On the other hand, restricting attention just to the railway traffic, the Swiss passes were crossed by more rail tons with respect to the Austrian passes (24 million tons versus 20,8 million tons for year 2010 respectively), with a modal share for rail equal to 63,7% for Swiss passes and only 30,4% for Austrian passes. Moreover, in the period 2007-2010, Swiss alpine traffic lost about 2,8% of total trade, compared with the -11,4% by French passes and -13,2% of the Austrian passes. Therefore, the recovery trend likely observable in the near future will have firstly to fill the gap between the pre-crisis trade and the lowest point reached during the economic downturn.

22 Calculations for 2020 were obtained by projecting the rates of growth of GDP underlying values of Table 37 in the optimistic assumptions of full economic recovery, so as to quantify an upper limit to the demand for international transport related to Veneto. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 87

Figure 42 – Network desire lines of the total freight flows between Italy and relevant areas of continental Europe for year 2020 (optimistic scenario): absolute values in tons/year and percentage change compared to the current scenario (2011).

Table 39 – Alpine crossing freight traffic in tons/year: historical series 2000-2010, by transport mode (source: AlpInfo)

year transport mode

Ventimiglia Mont-Cenis Frejus Blanc Mont passes French Simplon Gotthard passes Swiss passes Swiss Brenner Tarvisio passes Austrian road 13,7 0,0 25,2 0,0 38,9 0,1 7,6 0,8 8,5 25,4 18,2 43,6 2000 rail 0,9 8,6 0,0 0,0 9,5 3,7 16,8 0,0 20,5 8,7 4,8 13,5 total 14,6 8,6 25,2 0,0 48,4 3,8 24,4 0,8 29,0 34,1 23,0 57,1 road 18,0 0,0 16,8 5,2 40,0 0,7 9,9 1,3 11,9 31,1 19,3 50,4 2004 rail 0,5 6,4 0,0 0,0 6,9 6,8 16,1 0,0 22,9 10,1 5,8 15,9 total 18,5 6,4 16,8 5,2 46,9 7,5 26,0 1,3 34,8 41,2 25,1 66,3 road 19,4 0,0 13,1 8,6 41,1 0,9 10,9 1,8 13,6 35,0 19,9 54,9 2007 rail 0,6 5,7 0,0 0,0 6,3 9,7 15,5 0,0 25,2 13,3 7,0 20,3 total 20,0 5,7 13,1 8,6 47,4 10,6 26,4 1,8 38,8 48,3 26,9 75,2 road 18,6 12,2 8,6 39,4 0,9 11,0 1,8 13,7 33,8 17,7 51,5 2008 rail 0,6 4,6 0,0 0,0 5,2 10,0 15,5 0,0 25,5 14,0 6,9 20,9 total 19,2 4,6 12,2 8,6 44,6 10,9 26,5 1,8 39,2 47,8 24,6 72,4 road 17,1 0,0 10,2 7,8 35,1 0,8 10,2 1,9 12,9 25,8 15,6 41,4 2009 rail 0,4 2,4 0,0 0,0 2,8 9,2 11,6 0,0 20,8 13,1 5,7 18,8 total 17,5 2,4 10,2 7,8 37,9 10,0 21,8 1,9 33,7 38,9 21,3 60,2 road 17,8 0,0 11,0 8,7 37,5 0,8 10,8 2,1 13,7 27,5 17,0 44,5 2010 rail 0,6 3,9 0,0 0,0 4,5 9,6 14,4 0,0 24,0 14,4 6,4 20,8 total 18,4 3,9 11,0 8,7 42,0 10,4 25,2 2,1 37,7 41,9 23,4 65,3

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6.2.1.2 Rail traffic Looking in more detail to rail freight traffic, Figure 43 shows an estimate of total rail freight traffics to/from Veneto – both in thousands of tons/year with reference to 2011 and to projections to 2015 and 2020, both in terms of percentage changes compared to 2011 (current scenario) – aggregated by macrozones within continental Europe. The vast majority of flows is towards Central Europe and the Netherlands, a valuable share is observable to/from the Balkans and Eastern Europe, whilst a more marginal contribution comes from France and from the Iberian Peninsula. In percentages, however, a perspective higher percentage increase is observed with respect to the Eastern Europe, leading to a slight shift in the market shares of the macrozones in 2020. Overall, the total traffic will grow from 9,25 million tons/year of year 2011 to 9,53 million tons in 2015 (+3.1%) and to 11,2 million in 2020 (+21,1% compared to 2011) .

Figure 43 – Estimation of rail freight traffics (thousands of tons/year in absolute terms and percentage variations) to/from Veneto aggregated by European macrozone: projections in backcasting for 2011 and forecasts for 2015 and 2020

Finally, similarly with national traffic, the potential freight traffic attractable by intermodal nodes in Veneto through rail intermodal gateway services has been estimated: for this aim, flows between the Italian regions (with the exception of Piemonte, Lombardia and Valle d'Aosta, evidently outside the possible catchment area) and relevant foreign macro-areas (see the zoning reported in Figure 43) have een taken into account. Notably, only o-d pairs exhibiting at the geographical level NUTS2 express a yearly freight flow of at least 10.000 and 25.000 tons/year were considered: results are reported in the following Table 40. This table also reports the unbalance ratio for each o-d pair (i.e.

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the percentage of export flows over the total), so as to investigate the coefficient of inner trade balance within each o-d pair. Notably, the attractable traffic with a threshold of 10.000 tons is some 3,34 million tons by 2015, i.e. just only the 11,6% of the total potential, indicating a strong fragmentation of the demand which obviously does not help the penetration of rail transport services. In addition, by increasing the acceptance threshold to 20.000 tons/year the potential demand drops to approximately 500 thousand tons/year (less than 2% of the total).

Table 40 – Total import/export gateway traffics relevant for Veneto (thousands of tons/year) and unbalance percentage: overall value and selection based on thresholds by o-d NUTS2 pair

zone o-d threshold type of flow 2010 2015 2020 % export 2010 total 11.718 12.040 13.267 41% tutte potential gateway for Veneto 4.186 4.303 4.741 36% total 7.595 7.807 8.602 38% Belgium and Netherlands > 10.000 potential gateway for Veneto 1.208 1.243 1.369 29% total 3.818 3.925 4.325 36% > 25.000 potential gateway for Veneto 236 243 268 11% total 3.884 4.008 4.555 44% tutte potential gateway for Veneto 1.392 1.439 1.638 39% total 533 548 624 40% Denmark and Scandinavia > 10.000 potential gateway for Veneto - - - - total 85 87 99 30% > 25.000 potential gateway for Veneto - - - - total 10.561 11.288 13.034 39% tutte potential gateway for Veneto 3.634 3.878 4.493 35% total 3.297 3.542 4.080 37% East Europe > 10.000 potential gateway for Veneto 102 111 127 40% total 763 824 945 41% > 25.000 potential gateway for Veneto - - - - total 42.302 43.424 48.072 40% tutte potential gateway for Veneto 13.198 13.561 15.009 40% total 10.083 10.391 11.503 29% Central Europe > 10.000 potential gateway for Veneto 871 895 990 41% total 4.250 4.381 4.852 25% > 25.000 potential gateway for Veneto 56 58 64 0% total 11.638 12.416 14.981 11% tutte potential gateway for Veneto 4.933 5.271 6.361 9% total 5.354 5.674 6.979 1% Russia and Baltic > 10.000 potential gateway for Veneto 1.008 1.065 1.323 0% total 2.516 2.658 3.307 0% > 25.000 potential gateway for Veneto 195 206 256 0% total 80.102 83.176 93.909 36% tutte potential gateway for Veneto 27.343 28.452 32.242 33% total 26.863 27.963 31.788 27% total > 10.000 potential gateway for Veneto 3.189 3.314 3.809 23% total 11.432 11.876 13.528 24% > 25.000 potential gateway for Veneto 487 506 588 5%

Source: own elaboration. Note: The total does not correspond to the total crossing flows reported in Table 6 because for both Italy and Europe just a selection of o-d pairs has been performed. A direction is considered to be perfectly balanced if the percentage of exports is equal to 50% of the total.

6.2.2 Intercontinental traffic The analysis of potential maritime containerized traffic relevant for the Northern Adriatic basin with intercontinental origin/destination is a very common theme in the technical literature, although sometimes significant differences in demand forecasts can be observed across studies. In this study, the project team adopted a consolidated method of analysis, obtaining an estimate of the potential

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trade in TEU/year for the NAPA ports in medium and long term scenarios, i.e. to 2015 and 2020 respectively. Obtained results are then compared with the findings of other relevant studies.

The starting point is the estimate of final demand generated and attracted by each NUTS3 area of Continental Europe, expressed in density of TEUs/km2/year. For this aim, firstly the net import/export traffic in TEUs for each of the 171 major European container ports has been collected, i.e. not accounting for either transshipment and empty containers. Subsequently, the 171 ports have been grouped into clusters and each of them associated with the respective catchment area currently served. In parallel, within each catchment area an estimation of the overall demand generated/attracted was performed on the basis of EUROSTAT data (COMEXT database) and numerous surveys and other o-d matrices available to the project team. Through a double-check of those data, therefore, it was possible to calculate the amount of TEUs/year generated by each NUTS3 area of Continental Europe in the current scenario (2011). Since the geographic level of detail of the Europe NUTS3 zoning is quite heterogeneous, in order to obtain a representation of the phenomenon that allows a direct comparison between zones, a map based on the density expressed in TEU/km2 handled by each zone by year, leading to the map of Figure 44.

Notably, areas with the largest concentration of intercontinental containerized flows is along the strip that includes the Northern Italy, Central Europe, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. In the rest of Continental Europe the demand flows are much less concentrated, with high demand in restricted areas near the most industrialized zones of each country. Overall, the identified study area generates/attracts 65,2 million TEUs per year.

Starting from the TEUs/year values of 2011, proper regression curves correlating this value (as dependent variable) with explanatory variables related to socio-economic and industrial characteristics of each zone (e.g. GDP, GDP per capita, employees, value of industrial production) have been estimated. This allows obtaining a tool able to provide future estimates of the density of TEU/km2/year for each NUTS3 zone, depending on the variations of GDP already described above.

By way of an example, the following Figure 45 reports the estimate of the variation of density of TEU/km2/year between 2020 and 2011, under the same hypothesis of economic growth given in Section 2.2.1. Again, the main increases were observed in areas within Central Europe and the Netherlands: at a glance, the 65,2 million TEUs handled in 2011 will become 70,8 in 2015 and 78,2 in 2020.

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Figure 44 – Container demand for 2011 in continental Europe: density in TEU/km2/year by NUTS3 zone (source: own elaboration)

Figure 45 – Container demand for 2020 in continental Europe: density variation in TEU/km2/year with respect to 2011 by NUTS3 zone (source: own elaboration)

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From the supply side, the problem of estimating the catchment area for each port cluster within Continental Europe arises. For this aim, the dynamics of interaction between a port and a zone of origin/destination depends, from a transport standpoint, on the characteristics and on the performance level of the inland and foreland transport networks connecting the port landside and seaside and, from a logistics standpoint, on the overall supply chain which the goods are transported within. The latter factor often plays a very important role, being equal the transport conditions: for example, an element of competitive advantage of the Northern Range ports is their closeness to most of the European distribution centers, which are located precisely in the Netherlands and Central Europe. As a consequence, a relevant share of the goods to/from the Italian markets still find convenient to use Northern Range ports for intercontinental connections. On the other hand, a port which offers excellent inland and foreland connections may in turn become the medium term a potential attractor for logistic activities related to it, thus helping to change the existing structure of supply chains.

In order to achieve in each case to a reliable estimate of the traffic captured by NAPA ports, their inland penetration capability, in terms of competitiveness against other port clusters that can serve continental Europe, in ideal transport condition was assessed, i.e. assuming that to/from any port the container transport conditions and performances to/from inland destination are ideal. Under these assumptions, for each NUTS3 zone of the study area the best transport cost to/from each port cluster has been calculated: this allows, in particular, estimating the cost differential between ports of the Northern Range and NAPA, graphically represented in Figure 46. In particular, the overall area of competition between those two port cluster can be immediately recognized: looking just to a  € 100 cost difference, Bavaria and the Czech Republic are the main areas of competition. However, the presence of the Alps provides for a substantial southbound shift of the center of mass of the catchment area of the Northern Range ports.

Once calculated the transport impedances between each NUTS3 zone and each relevant port in continental Europe – in the ideal inland transport conditions described above – a port choice model available to the project team was in turn applied, which provides the choice probability for each NUTS3 area of each available port, as a function of the transport impedances and of explanatory variables characterizing the port itself. As a result, it is therefore possible to calculate the "ideal" catchment area of each port cluster, and in particular of the NAPA ports, shown in Figure 47. Its analysis clearly evidence how the center of mass of the NAPA ports is ideally projected towards Eastern Europe, covering in more details the Austria, the North-Western Balkans, Hungary, Slovakia and parts of Bavaria and the Czech Republic.

It should be emphasized that the adopted port choice model explicitly accounts for an explanatory variable which measures the capability of the port to act as a hub (with different dimensions) and/or to attract more maritime traffics also in gateway function. In that respect, Figure 47 refers to a calculation under conservative assumptions, i.e. assuming that none of the NAPA ports would develop such functions. Similar calculations were conducted, however, even under the assumption of development of hub functions - obviously of limited size compared to those of the Northern Range ports.

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Figure 46 – Areas of competition between NAPA ports (from Ravenna to Rijeka) and Northern Range ports: cost difference (€) for inland forwarding of a maritime container between the two port clusters for each NUTS3 zone (source: own elaboration)

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Figure 47 – Ideal catchment area of the NAPA ports in the assumption of container maritime services with the same structure as in the current scenario

Interestingly, the overlapping of demand data (Figure 44 and Figure 45) and supply (Figure 47) in various scenarios allows quantifying the traffic in TEUs/year attracted by NAPA ports, summarized in Table 41.

Table 41 – Traffic estimates for the ideal catchment area of the NAPA ports (TEU/year) under different scenarios, with reference to year 2011 and to the medium and long term horizons (respectively 2015 and 2020)

scenario TEUs in the ideal NAPA catchment area 2011 - 3.420.000 without hub 3.730.000 2015 with hub 4.210.000 without hub 4.110.000 2020 with hub 4.630.000

Source: own elaboration.

A first clear result emerges by comparing the ratio between the actual 1.807.000 TEUs handled in 2011 and the potential 3.420.000 TEUs: NAPA ports are therefore able to capture only about 53% of their potential traffic23. Furthermore, assuming that nothing changes with respect to the current situation (“business as usual” scenario), but the volume of transport demand due to changes in

23 Clearly, in the current scenario NAPA ports serve zones external to their catchment area and, conversely, zones within the NAPA porti deal catchment area are currently served by other ports. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 95

socio-economic and industrial systems, the NAPA port cluster will handle about 2,45 million TEUs in 2020. On the contrary, in the most optimistic assumptions, i.e. significant penetration in the catchment area and simultaneous ability to capture deep-sea maritime services operated by large vessels, the total traffic would be between 4,11 and 4,63 million TEUs in 2020. These figures should however be considered a theoretical upper limit.

Finally, it is interesting to look separately at the Eastern side of the NAPA cluster (Trieste, Koper and Rijeka) and at the Western side (Ravenna and Venice) catchment areas, respectively shown in Figure 48 and Figure 49. In fact, the comparison shows that the international projection of the ports is NAPA mainly guaranteed by the eastern part of the cluster, while the ports of Venice and Ravenna have a predominantly national basin. Overall, in terms of catchable traffic, western NAPA ports account for 25% of the total NAPA trade whilst eastern NAPA ports account for 75%. By way of a comparison, currently (i.e. year 2011) the western NAPA ports cover 36% of total NAPA traffic.

Figure 48 - Ideal catchment area of the eastern NAPA ports (Trieste, Koper, Rijeka) in the assumption of container maritime services with the same structure as in the current scenario

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Figure 49 - Ideal catchment area of the western NAPA ports (Venice, Ravenna) in the assumption of container maritime services with the same structure as in the current scenario

As previously mentioned, numerous studies have tried recently to estimate the potential container traffic of NAPA ports24.

In particular, NEA recognizes that in 2008 the potential basin of the North Adriatic ports is 3,87 million TEUs (compared to the 3,42 million TEUs in 2011 reported in Table 41), with a negative balance in relation to the actual traded TEUs corresponding to a capacity of penetration into the catchment area of about 42%. For comparison, in the same period Northern Range ports captured 7,31 million TEUs more than their actual basin and Tyrrhenian Italians ports 0,9 million TEUs more: overall, the market shares observed in 2008 between Northern Range ports and Southern Range ports are close to a 80%-20% ratio respectively. On the other hand, looking at the data of Austrian Seehafenbilanz for 2011 expressing the market shares of port cluster for Austrian origin/destination

24 In particular, reference in the following will be made to: “NEA”: The balance of container traffic amongst European ports: final report (NEA study for the ports of Antwerp, Rotterdam and Hamburg; October 2011); “MDS”: Market study on the potential cargo capacity of the North Adriatic ports system in the container sector: final report (study by MDS Transmodal for the NAPA ports, January 2012); “Scenari adriatici”: Studio per gli Interporti di Bologna, Padova, Verona Q.E. (study by Sergio Bologna et al., January 2011); “SONORA”: SONORA (SOuth-NORth Axis) project: Improving transport infrastructure and services across Central Europe, available at http://www.sonoraproject.eu; “Unicredit Group”: studies on port traffics and on the shipping sectors available at https://www.unicredit.it/it/chisiamo/per-le-imprese/ricerche/per-il-cliente-private.html. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 97

flows, cited by the NEA, in 2010 the first port was Koper with 3,29 million tons, followed by Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg for an overall total of 5 million tons, corresponding to a 57% market share. Indeed, this percentage increases to 70% when looking to export flows, with Hamburg (1,71 million tons) as first port and only Koper amongst NAPA ports within the first 5 ranks (Bremerhaven, Antwerp and Rotterdam are the others).

An interesting aspect of the NEA study refers to the comparison of shipping costs between the deep- sea container shipping from the Far East ports towards the Northern Range and NAPA, respectively. Notably, whilst the average cost in U.S.$/TEU on the Northern Europe-Asia route is about 25% greater than the cost for the corresponding Asia-NAPA route (being equal all conditions), actually - given the current size of the vessel used - the ships of 12.500 TEUs serving the Asia-North Europe route have a cost in U.S.$/TEU of 13% lower compared to the vessels of 6.500 TEUs currently used in 25 the Asia-NAPA route . The same proportions apply in principle to the CO2 emissions, which would be approximately 20% lower on the main Asia-Europe route by scaling the NAPA ports rather than scaling Northern Range ports, being equal all conditions, whilst they are actually unfavorable for NAPA ports given the current conditions of ships employed and observed loading factors. This means that a necessary condition for increasing significantly the actual NAPA traffics is to attract much larger vessels than those currently adopted: taking into account the infrastructural characteristics of the NAPA ports, it is clear that without significant infrastructural improvements the only port suitable for this purpose is Trieste.

Looking at the traffic forecasts for the future scenarios, the NEA study assumes a 4% annual growth tout court for the containerized trade, which leads the net 35 million TEUs (i.e. without considering the transshipment) required by origin/destination within the study area26 (part of Europe) to more than double by 2030, reaching about 82,9 million TEUs. This would mean, again not accounting for transshipment, that the Tyrrhenian Italian ports are expected to move about 9,2 million TEUs in 2030 and NAPA ports about 4,1 million TEUs under the assumption of unchanged market shares between Northern Range and Southern Range, and 6,1 million TEUs in the case of an improvement of NAPA competitiveness with respect to the Northern Range. In any case, these increases are almost entirely related to eastern NAPA ports (Trieste, Koper, Rijeka), whilst the ports of Venice and Ravenna are mainly related with the Italian national demand.

The study conducted by MDS Transmodal is based on a more aggregated geographical zonization, i.e. NUTS2 instead of NUTS3 zones. An expected traffic for NAPA ports of 1,7 million TEUs is expected for 2015, 4 million TEUs for 2020 and 6 million TEUs for 2030 in the most optimistic scenario (11.000- TEU capacity vessels, optimal performance of rail freight, stop to Swiss incentives to intermodal transport, taxation of CO2 emissions). Less optimistic scenarios were also simulated, namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a BAU scenario with optimal performance of rail freight, a BAU scenario with 11-000 TEUs ships calling at Adriatic ports and optimal performance of rail freight but without efficient internalization of environmental costs. Respectively, for each scenario the forecasts

25 NEA performed the calculation accounting for the current observed load factor of the ships calling at NAPA ports, which is lower than that of the ships calling at Northern Range ports. Costs would be approximately the same if the load factors were equal. 26 The total is 44 Million TEUs by accounting also for zones not reachable either from NAPA or from Northern Range. Furthermore, the NEA study area is smaller than the one considered for the present study. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 98

for year 2030 lead to 2,6 million TEUs, 4.9 million TEUs and 5.9 million TEUs. Notably, according to MDS, in the most optimistic assumptions the container traffic increase would require additional 89 trains/day, divided between the Brenner and Mont Cenis passes, 85 trains/day along Tarvisio and Rijeka routes, and 35 trains/day internal to Italy27.

The study Scenari adriatici (Adriatic scenarios), carried out by part of the project team, has identified four strategic areas of interest for the ports of NAPA:

• export traffics to be captured from North Tyrrhenian Italian ports to North America and to/from destinations other than Far East; • competition with Northern Italian Tyrrhenian ports with reference to origin/destination zones to be served in between North East and North West of Italy; • competition with the Northern Range ports for final destinations in Bavaria and Austria; • areas of possible market position strengthening in the traffics towards Hungary and Eastern Europe.

The potential demand identified in the overall NAPA catchment area in ideal conditions is estimated for year 2020 in about 4 million TEUs, however in more realistic conditions it is quantified in no more than between 2,5 and 3 million TEUs. Also this study points out the leading role of the Eastern NAPA ports. Finally, the studies proposed within the SONORA project indicate 2,94 million TEUs in 2020 and 5,29 million TEUs in 2030 for the cluster NAPA, while the assessments of Unicredit Group, partially related to the (now abandoned) project of a new container terminal in Monfalcone, indicated a potential market of 2,57 million TEUs in 2012 and 4 million TEUs in 2020.

6.3 Freight villages and logistics regional system A remarkable aspect worth to be analysed in the context of the TRANSITECTS project refers to the evaluation of the territorial accessibility within the Veneto region, by means of the system of mathematical models and the corresponding methodologies described above.

Firstly, the accessibility of each census zone within Veneto towards the closest intermodal rail terminal has been evaluated, including both the regional freight villages and the intermodal terminals by RFI (as of the end of 2011). In particular, accessibility was measured by considering the congested travel time to reach the intermodal node from each census zone with a heavy vehicle, i.e. taking into account the effects of traffic congestion caused by passengers. The related thematic maps are shown in Figure 50, with reference to the closest terminal irrespective of its nature (i.e. either freight villages or intermodal terminal by RFI), from Figure 51 to Figure 54 with reference to each single relevant freight village (Padova, Rovigo, Venezia and Verona respectively), in Figure 55 for the port of Venice and in Figure 56 and Figure 57 for the airports of Venice and Verona respectively. For a better understanding of the phenomenon, Figure 58 shows the distribution of employees in the warehousing and logistics sectors for each municipality in Veneto (color theme) and, again at the municipal level, the number of major regional warehouses and distribution centers (red dots).

27 By way of a comparison, within the project SONORA AIOM estimates, on the basis of RFI data, a current daily capacity of 37 trains/day for the port of Trieste, which would become at maximum of 68 trains/day, corresponding to 1.440.000 tons/year. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 99

Figure 50 – Accessibility of the regional territory towards the closest intermodal terminal (freight villages, RFI terminals) – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

Figure 51 - Accessibility of the regional territory towards Interporto di Padova – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

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Figure 52 - Accessibility of the regional territory towards Interporto di Rovigo – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

Figure 53 - Accessibility of the regional territory towards Interporto di Venezia – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

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Figure 54 - Accessibility of the regional territory towards Interporto di Verona – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

Figure 55 - Accessibility of the regional territory towards the port of Venezia – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

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Figure 56 – Accessibility of the regional territory towards the airport of Venezia – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

Figure 57 - Accessibility of the regional territory towards the airport of Verona – current scenario at 2011 (source: own elaboration)

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Figure 58 – Number of employees in the logistics and warehousing sectors (source: ISTAT ASIA 2009) and number of main regional warehouses and distribution centres by municipality

A first comparison of the maps related to the freight villages shows that Padua, Venice and Rovigo have partially overlapping isochrones, while Verona is more independent. Clearly, the functional specialization of each freight village should be taken into account, so the closeness between two freight villages may not represent a possible shortcoming per se. It should also be noted that the logistic center of Verona is also quite close to the intermodal terminal in Mantova, with a perspective strong overlap between their potential catchment basins.

Notably, through a GIS-based overlapping of spatial data, territorial information supplied from the ASIA archive by ISTAT with the isochrones calculated, it is possible to characterize quantitatively the production structure within the isochrones of each freight village: values are reported for multiple isochrones with a 20-minutes increase step, starting from 40 minutes, in the following Table 42 in absolute terms and in Table 43 in cumulated values. The same data are also graphically represented in Figure 59 and Figure 60 (absolute and cumulated values respectively) for the local units and in Figure 61 and Figure 62 (absolute and cumulated values respectively) for the employees.

Looking at the 60 minutes isochrone, the most barycentric position is occupied by the freight village of Padua (about 172.000 local units) and Venice (149.000 local units), the freight villages of Rovigo and Verona have on average some 60.000 units, the freight village of Portogruaro is slightly less connected with the kernel of the regional industrial system. However, it should be stressed that a greater or a lesser density around a given freight village may not be an absolute index correlated with the handled traffic, which could for example be related to maritime or gateway traffics depending on its business model.

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Table 42 – Number of local units and employees around the five main freight villages in Veneto: absolute values (2009)

isochrone Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona [min] local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees < 40 61.631 233.549 15.959 62.189 24.533 86.019 65.889 248.722 28.132 117.392 40-60 111.360 441.009 22.483 95.576 41.222 147.968 83.685 338.608 26.431 104.561 60-80 82.890 345.729 61.029 231.891 51.043 201.357 107.881 433.042 46.963 194.524 80-100 65.292 254.336 64.635 253.580 104.388 428.147 43.104 173.907 66.946 262.257 > 100 118.530 478.757 275.597 1.110.144 218.517 889.889 139.144 559.101 271.231 1.074.647

Source: own elaboration based on ASIA 2009 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

Table 43 - Number of local units and employees around the five main freight villages in Veneto: cumulated values (2009)

isochrone Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona [min] local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees < 40 61.631 233.549 15.959 62.189 24.533 86.019 65.889 248.722 28.132 117.392 < 60 172.991 674.558 38.442 157.765 65.755 233.987 149.574 587.330 54.563 221.953 < 80 255.881 1.020.287 99.471 389.657 116.798 435.344 257.455 1.020.373 101.526 416.476 < 100 321.173 1.274.623 164.106 643.236 221.186 863.491 300.559 1.194.280 168.472 678.733 > 100 439.703 1.753.380 439.703 1.753.380 439.703 1.753.380 439.703 1.753.380 439.703 1.753.380

Source: own elaboration based on ASIA 2009 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

300.000

250.000

200.000 Padova 150.000 Portogruaro

# local local # units 100.000 Rovigo

50.000 Venezia Verona

0

60 80

- -

100

< 40 <

-

> 100>

40 60 80 isochrone [min]

Figure 59 – Local units around the main freight intermodal terminals: absolute values (source: ASIA 2009)

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500.000 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 Padova 250.000 Portogruaro 200.000

# local local # units Rovigo 150.000 100.000 Venezia 50.000 Verona

0

< 40 < 60 < < 80 <

< 100< 100> isochrone [min]

Figure 60 - Local units around the main freight intermodal terminals: cumulated values (source: ASIA 2009)

1.200.000

1.000.000

800.000 Padova 600.000 Portogruaro 400.000 Rovigo

200.000 Venezia # employees in local employees# local in units Verona

0

60 80

- -

100

< 40 <

-

> 100>

40 60 80 isochrone [min]

Figure 61 – Employees in local units around the main freight intermodal terminals: absolute values (source: ASIA 2009)

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2.000.000 1.800.000 1.600.000 1.400.000 1.200.000 Padova 1.000.000 Portogruaro 800.000 Rovigo 600.000

400.000 Venezia # employees # local in units 200.000 Verona

0

< 40 < 60 < 80 <

< 100< 100> isochrone [min]

Figure 62 - Employees in local units around the main freight intermodal terminals: cumulated values (source: ASIA 2009)

Interestingly, it is useful to look at the variations of such values over the time, particularly between 2001 (latest year for which a national ISTAT census is available) and 2009 (latest year for which ISTAT ASIA data is available). For this aim, Table 44 and Table 45 show respectively the values for year 2001 corresponding to the values reported in Table 42 and Table 43 for year 2009, while Table 46 reports the related percentage changes. Notably, the freight villages of Verona, Padua and Venice show a noteworthy increase in the number of local units (from +9,1% of Verona to + 6,3% of Venice within 40 minutes), however accompanied in some cases by a decrease in the number of employees (e.g. - 1% for Padua and – 4,6% for Venice). From the other side, a more stagnant economic structure seems to be observed around Portogruaro and Rovigo, which respectively experienced a fall of 1,3% and 1,9% respectively in the number of local units within 40 minutes.

Table 44 - Number of local units and employees around the five main freight villages in Veneto: absolute values (2001)

isochrone Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona [min] local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees < 40 68.332 276.138 20.141 81.077 26.321 101.500 62.010 260.772 25.781 113.458 < 60 98.316 442.030 17.949 76.030 38.571 148.941 80.613 347.456 26.372 112.548 < 80 81.706 367.511 59.417 254.224 49.984 210.340 108.291 476.660 46.874 213.438 < 100 66.290 272.860 61.680 263.291 101.214 461.337 44.275 193.899 64.311 276.669 > 100 121.985 557.014 277.442 1.240.931 220.539 993.435 141.440 636.766 273.291 1.199.440

Source: own elaboration based on ISTAT 2001 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

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Table 45 - Number of local units and employees around the five main freight villages in Veneto: cumulated values (2001)

isochrone Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona [min] local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees < 40 68.332 276.138 20.141 81.077 26.321 101.500 62.010 260.772 25.781 113.458 < 60 166.648 718.168 38.090 157.107 64.892 250.441 142.623 608.228 52.153 226.006 < 80 248.354 1.085.679 97.507 411.331 114.876 460.781 250.914 1.084.888 99.027 439.444 < 100 314.644 1.358.539 159.187 674.622 216.090 922.118 295.189 1.278.787 163.338 716.113 > 100 436.629 1.915.553 436.629 1.915.553 436.629 1.915.553 436.629 1.915.553 436.629 1.915.553

Source: own elaboration based on ISTAT 2001 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

Table 46 - % change between 2001 and 2009 in the number of local units and employees around the five main freight villages in Veneto

isochrone Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona [min] local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees local units employees < 40 7,8% -1,0% -1,3% -3,4% -1,9% -10,6% 6,3% -4,6% 9,1% 3,5% < 60 3,8% -6,1% 0,9% 0,4% 1,3% -6,6% 4,9% -3,4% 4,6% -1,8% < 80 3,0% -6,0% 2,0% -5,3% 1,7% -5,5% 2,6% -5,9% 2,5% -5,2% < 100 2,1% -6,2% 3,1% -4,7% 2,4% -6,4% 1,8% -6,6% 3,1% -5,2% > 100 0,7% -8,5% 0,7% -8,5% 0,7% -8,5% 0,7% -8,5% 0,7% -8,5%

Source: own elaboration based on ISTAT 2001 and ASIA 2009 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

Finally, an evaluation of the percentage breakdown of local units and their employees by ATECO commodity category within 60 minutes from each regional freight village, leading to the values reported in Table 47 and Table 48: no significant differences can be observed across the freight villages.

Table 47 - % of local units by ATECO commodity group within 60 minutes from each regional freight village

ATECO commodity group Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona Agriculture, hunting and forestry 0,8% 1,9% 1,2% 0,9% 1,7% Fishing, fish farming and related services 0,3% 0,2% 0,0% 0,3% 0,0% Mining and quarrying 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% Manufacturing 16,9% 14,5% 17,3% 16,2% 18,1% Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% Construction 13,6% 14,9% 13,5% 14,4% 14,4% Wholesale and retail 26,5% 25,8% 28,0% 26,6% 24,9% Hotels and restaurants 4,2% 7,9% 4,5% 4,7% 6,1% Transport, storage and communication 4,3% 4,3% 4,5% 4,2% 4,7% Financial intermediation 2,4% 2,2% 2,2% 2,4% 2,3% Real estate, renting, research 17,7% 15,8% 14,9% 17,3% 14,0% Public administration and defense 0,3% 0,3% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% Education 1,3% 1,2% 1,4% 1,2% 1,3% Health 3,7% 3,1% 3,7% 3,6% 3,5% Other community, social and personal services 7,9% 7,9% 8,2% 7,7% 8,4%

Source: own elaboration based on ISTAT 2001 and ASIA 2009 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

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Table 48 - % of employees in local units by ATECO commodity group within 60 minutes from each regional freight village

ATECO commodity group Padova Portogruaro Rovigo Venezia Verona Agriculture, hunting and forestry 0,4% 1,0% 0,6% 0,5% 0,9% Fishing, fish farming and related services 0,3% 0,2% 0,0% 0,4% 0,0% Mining and quarrying 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% Manufacturing 38,2% 38,4% 36,8% 38,2% 40,6% Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 0,4% 0,2% 0,5% 0,3% 0,2% Construction 8,6% 10,4% 9,0% 9,1% 8,3% Wholesale and retail 16,1% 16,6% 17,2% 16,5% 16,2% Hotels and restaurants 3,9% 5,6% 5,3% 4,4% 4,7% Transport, storage and communication 4,4% 3,8% 3,7% 4,3% 4,9% Financial intermediation 2,2% 1,8% 1,9% 2,2% 1,8% Real estate, renting, research 9,7% 8,3% 8,1% 9,4% 7,1% Public administration and defense 2,1% 1,6% 2,1% 1,7% 1,6% Education 5,1% 4,6% 5,6% 4,9% 4,7% Health 5,6% 3,9% 5,9% 5,0% 6,0% Other community, social and personal services 3,0% 3,3% 3,1% 2,9% 2,9%

Source: own elaboration based on ISTAT 2001 and ASIA 2009 data and on the basis of the isochrones.

The accessibility assessments presented so far, and the corresponding analysis of the distribution of the local units and of the employees by isochrones, are based on the current structure of the regional freight supply system. In perspective, a similar analysis should be carried out with reference to a future freight supply scenario encompassing planned infrastructural investments on the road network in Veneto, in order to check for possible differential effects on the accessibility of each single intermodal node. For this reason, the transport demand model for the Veneto region, implemented with reference to the current scenario, has been updated by accounting of the planned investments in the transport sector, consisting of the infrastructures shown in the following Figure 63. Specifically, the following major facilities have been included in the model: Pedemontana Veneta, Nuova Romea, autostrada Regionale Medio Padana-Veneta, autostrada Valdastico Sud, autostrada Valdastico Nord.

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Source: Feltrin, Maset, Della Torre, Valentini, Crescita economica, infrastrutture, mobilità: la scala sovraregionale e quella infraregionale, in “Nord regione globale: il Veneto” edited by P. Perulli, Ed. Bruno Mondadori, 2010.

Figure 63 – Future infrastructural scenario for the calculation of the variations in regional accessibility

Consistently, the accessibility calculations were then repeated for the aforementioned project scenario, and the corresponding absolute changes in accessibility compared to the current scenario graphically presented from Figure 50 to Figure 57. In particular, Figure 64 shows the accessibility variation towards the closest intermodal terminal, from Figure 65 to Figure 68 the analysis is particularized for the freight villages, in Figure 69 to the port of Venice and in Figure 70 and Figure 71 for the airports of Venice and Verona respectively. Results show that the freight villages of Verona and Rovigo benefit mainly of a significant increase of accessibility towards the region. Therefore, accounting also for the partial overlapping between the target basins of Rovigo and Padova, a perspective increase in their competition is likely to be expected, obviously depending also on possible common functional specifications. The position of Verona seems instead to be consolidated within the regional territory. Finally, it should also be underlined that Rovigo may increase its competitiveness in the medium term thanks to the direct connection to the main Italian inland waterway.

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Figure 64 – Accessibility increase towards the closest intermodal node: project scenario

Figure 65 - Accessibility increase towards the Interporto di Padova: project scenario

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Figure 66 - Accessibility increase towards the Interporto di Rovigo: project scenario

Figure 67 - Accessibility increase towards the Interporto di Venezia: project scenario

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Figure 68 - Accessibility increase towards the Interporto di Verona: project scenario

Figure 69 - Accessibility increase towards the port of Venezia: project scenario

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Figure 70 - Accessibility increase towards the airport of Venezia: project scenario

Figure 71 - Accessibility increase towards the airport of Verona: project scenario

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6.4 Synthesis In terms of total national traffic, the simulations show that the overall Italian freight demand changes from 1,56 billion tons/year transported in 2007 (before the crisis), to 1,59 billion tons/year in 2015 and to 1,61 billion tons/year in 2017, an increase of just 3,2% in 10 years. In 2020, some 1,66 billion tons are expected - under the most optimistic assumptions for economic growth - still reaching just a 6,4% increase over 2007. It is worth noting that such growth trends are remarkably below the proposed increases in most of the feasibility studies for new infrastructures of regional and/or national importance relevant for freight transport. Then, looking in detail to the traffic generated/attracted from the Veneto region, the proposed increases values in tonnes/year to 2015, 2017 and 2020 compared to 2011 are respectively equal to 2,5% in 2015, to 5% in 2017 and 8,5% in 2020. It is also useful to recall that the absolute reduction in the total amount of generated/attracted tons between 2008 and 2010 exceeded approximately 13 million/tons per year, so at the current growth rates the pre-crisis level will be reached back just in 2017, and only from then on an overall positive growth in absolute value will be observed.

In terms of national rail traffic, the expected recovery of traded volumes should lead to handle 5,29 million tons in 2015 and 6,18 million in 2020, assuming that there will be no substantial changes in the current trade patterns: such figures are not much higher with respect to the traffic of the pre- crisis period. Moreover, these values are primarily linked to the inland forwarding of maritime traffics, both containerized and traditional: indeed, looking just at the "pure" national rail traffic (i.e. with national origin and destination) the total potential traffic equals in the current scenario 5,97 million tons/year, mainly concentrated from the North-West to the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian directions: within this context, Veneto provides a total contribution (generated and attracted) of about 775 thousand tons/year, i.e. approximately a market share of 13% of the potential domestic market. Therefore, the potential contribution of purely domestic intermodal traffic in the Veneto region is marginal, compared to the total handled by rail in the region, and clearly maritime traffic should be necessarily attracted in order to enhance regional intermodal infrastructures devoted to rail transport. In that respect, a particular relevance should be assigned to the rail transport of empty containers.

In terms of "continental" international trade (i.e. to/from the Euro-Mediterranean area), Central and Western Europe account for 52% of imports and for 59% of exports in 2011, percentages which do not change appreciably in the future scenarios. The predicted demand growth in import for years 2015 and 2020 is 4,52% and 18,6% respectively if compared to 2011, whilst the envisaged percentage changes in exports are respectively 2.80% and 14.79% for 2015 and 2020. In absolute terms, the overall expected increase does not exceed 5 million tons, reaching just over 40 million tonnes in import/export by 2020. The most significant increases in demand are foreseen from Eastern Europe and the Balkans, i.e. along the most interesting directions for potential traffic crossing the Veneto. Looking in more detail to rail traffic, the freight demand increases from 9,25 million tons/year in 2011 to 9,53 million tons/year in 2015 tonnes (+3,1%), up to 11,2 million in 2020 (+21, 1% compared to 2011). Finally, similarly with national traffic, the potential trade28 which may be attracted by the Veneto through gateway functions has been evaluated: the potential traffic for a threshold of 10.000

28 Potential means accounting only the subset of national o-d pairs with more than 500 km and an yearly volume of more than a given threshold of tons/year. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 115

tonnes is 3,34 million tons in 2015, equivalent to just the 11,6% of the total potential, indicating a strong fragmentation of the demand which does not help the penetration of rail services. The sustainability of the international rail trade should therefore be mainly related to traffic with origin/destination in Veneto, both related to continental traffic and to maritime traffic, whilst the contribution that can come from gateway trades is appreciable but not significant.

With reference to the intercontinental maritime traffic captured by the NAPA ports, under ideal transport conditions (i.e. assuming that an optimal inland forwarding of maritime traffics is available from each port) the area of potential competition between the NAPA port cluster and the Northern Range cluster has its centre of mass in between Bavaria and the Czech Republic. The estimation of containerized maritime trade also notes that there is a noticeable difference between the 1.807.000 TEUs handled in 2011 and the 3.420.000 million TEUs in fact potentially attractable within the catchment area: as a result, NAPA ports can therefore capture only 53% of their potential traffic. Furthermore, assuming that nothing changes with respect to the current scenario but the transport demand due to changes in socio-economic and productive systems (business as usual scenario), the NAPA port cluster will move about 2,45 million TEUs by 2020. In the most optimistic assumptions, however, that is with substantial penetration in the catchment area and with the simultaneous ability to capture deep-sea maritime trade served by large vessels, the overall demand would lie in between 4,11 and 4,63 million TEUs in 2020. Those values should however be considered a theoretical upper limit. In any case, a necessary condition for a traffic increase is to allow for calls from very large vessels, a situation which can be guaranteed in the current infrastructural structures just by the port of Trieste within the NAPA cluster. Within the NAPA, furthermore, the analyses show that in fact the international projection of the NAPA ports is mainly guaranteed by the eastern part of the cluster, while the ports of Venice and Ravenna have a smaller basin with mainly national projection.

Finally, looking to the regional accessibility in a scenario of increased road infrastructures within the regional territory, the freight villages of Verona and Rovigo will benefit from a significant increase of accessibility to the region. Furthermore, a perspective competition between the freight villages of Padova and Rovigo may arise, provided that some overlaps in their functional specialization will occur.

7 Analysis of the results of the survey This section contains the detailed results of the survey performed to industrial enterprises, manufacturing companies and to transport/logistics operators. As previously mentioned, many topics have been surveyed, belonging to four areas of analysis:

• target markets and customers; • transport organization; • warehouse management; • critical issues and development strategies.

The survey was performed through two very similar questionnaires (respectively for manufacturers and transport/logistics bodies) and the gathered data were elaborate in order to highlight the most relevant aspects characterizing the activities of the two different sectors. In particular, the

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industrial/manufacturing companies were investigated in the survey by accounting for two different cluster: small enterprises and medium/large enterprises (i.e. companies with 20 employees or more and/or a specific threshold on yearly turnover). Similarly, the analysis of the transport/logistics system was performed both by illustrating the overall results and by highlighting some aspects that characterize and differentiate the world of industrial production with respect to the logistics and transport sector.

Specifically, Section 3.1 refers to the investigation on the industrial/manufacturing companies and Section 3.2 to the logistics and freight sectors.

7.1 Survey to industrial/manufacturing companies

7.1.1 Reference market The structure of the manufacturing sector in Veneto is characterized by an universe of medium-small size companies: indeed, according to official statistics, about 8 out of 10 organizations have less than 20 workers and their predominant activities are mostly local or national. Therefore, the manufacturing sector as a whole was compared with a specific subset of medium-large companies, so as to highlight possible differences about their transport management and goods shipping, and in general to detect possible structural differences in their organization.

The first aspect to be accounted for is the substantial difference in their reference market: in general, only one fifth of the companies working abroad and the market is mainly local/regional. Medium/large companies, however, operates significantly far from the national territory, with almost half of the enterprises working stably in foreign countries. However, the share of local trade (43,6%) still remains very significant.

Which is your reference market? (% calculated over all respondents)

All companies Medium/large companies

51,1% 43,6% 46,8%

33,6% 29,8% 26,3%

16,0% 21,2%

Italy

Local

Abroad North Italy North

Does not know/No answer: 1,4%

EU Countries account for the majority of the produced goods but, apart from the consolidated reference partners (e.g. Germany and France), a large share of the market is also represented by the Eastern Europe countries (e.g. Romania, Hungary, Slovenia) which joined the EU in recent years.

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Overall, the Europe as a whole remains the main market, taking into account that in addition to European Union countries, 25% of companies exhibit foreign business relations with other European countries, primarily Russia and the Balkan countries.

The North American market (United States over all) is another very relevant market, especially for medium/large companies, even if more dynamic trends and business perspectives are related to the emerging markets (China, South-East Asia and Middle East, particularly Arab countries), which are ranked third together after Europe and America.

Which are the main extra-national market areas? (% calculated over all respondents)

All companies Medium/large companies

64,3% EU27 55,6% 25,0% Other European Countries 31,1% 7,1% Africa 11,1% 17,9% Middle East 17,8% 17,9% China .- Far East 20,0% 7,1% Oceania 11,1% 25,0% North America 40,0% 10,7% Central - South America 15,6%

Does not know/No answer: 1,8%

7.1.2 Transport organization The organization of transports for the above mentioned target markets is primarily carried out by own account, and only for specific areas and for corresponding specific transport modes there is a remarkable market share of outsourcing to carriers and freight forwarders. There is therefore a direct proportionality between the amplitude of the market and the penetration of freight outsourcing, which is on average about 60% for European destination and 80% for other worldwide destinations.

Another aspect to be highlighted refers to the tendency of larger firms to handle a noteworthy share of own account transport, regardless of the destination of goods: indeed, the observed own account share is about 20% for European markets and around 15% for intercontinental markets, especially Middle East. On the contrary, smaller companies, not being sufficiently equipped with an internal structure able to support this type of service, adopt transport outsourcing also for national destinations (40% carriers and 33% logistics/freight operators).

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Organization of transports by reference market

Own account Carrier Freight forwarder

Local Northern Italy

100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% All companies Medium/large companies All companies Medium/large companies

Italy Europe

100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% All companies Medium/large companies All companies Medium/large companies

Extra-Europe

100,0%

80,0%

60,0%

40,0%

20,0%

0,0% All companies Medium/large companies

Does not know/No answer: 3,8%

Road transport is the prevailing mode of transport at both local and national levels. Other transport means (in particular rail and air) are marginally used for both small and medium/large enterprises. A more differentiated market share structure across transport modes can be observed for international

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origin/destinations, although road transport remains the prevailing mode also for European destinations (both intra and extra EU) with a market share close to 80%. Remarkably, the remaining of the shipments are mostly traded by air. Maritime transport is predominant for medium/large companies, while railway transport plays a marginal mode. Intercontinental freight consignments are organized mostly by air and by sea, with a greater use of the latter by large companies: in terms of market shares, air transport holds some 54% of intercontinental shipments, whilst sea mode about 38 %. For larger companies the preceding market shares become respectively 42% for air and 48% for sea transport.

Transport mode by reference market

Road Other

Northern Italy Italy

100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% All companies Medium/large companies All companies Medium/large companies

Road Rail Sea Air

Europe Extra-Europe 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% All companies Medium/large companies All companies Medium/large companies Does not know/No answer: 4,1%

Notably, the access to maritime mode – which is, as said, prevailing for intercontinental markets – is performed primarily by using the Tyrrhenian Sea ports (about 85%). This percentage falls to 55% if looking just to medium/large companies, who use more frequently also Adriatic ports.

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Ports of reference for extra-European trade by sea

55,4%

84,6% Tyrrhenian ports Adriatic ports

44,6%

15,4%

All companies Medium/large companies

Surveyed manufacturers organize an average of 16-18 consignments per month at a local level, whilst the consignment frequency is remarkably lower for farther markets: for European market, the number of shipments is about 11 per month, for destinations outside Europe it is around 6 per month. Medium/large companies are able to organize a higher number of trips both towards national (24/month) and international (18/month for European and 17/month non-European) markets.

Average number of consignment/months by reference market

All companies Medium/large companies

Northern Italy Italy

18,3 16,5

17,3 24,1

Europe Extra-Europe

10,8 6,4

18,5 16,8

Does not know/No answer: 4,3%

The prevailing use of road transport also affects the spread of intermodal transport units, with a low use of swap bodies observed within both national and international freight transport (shares below

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20%). In absolute terms, full truck load road vehicles are primarily used, with an observed frequency of 75% for North-Italian consignments and 50% for Italian consignments. Very widespread is the trailer as type of adopted vehicle. Finally, maritime container and air container become significantly present only in consignments to/from intercontinental markets, as intuitively expected.

(Intermodal) transport unit by reference market

Swap bodies Trailers Trucks Container Air container

Northern Italy Italy 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% All companies Medium/large companies All companies Medium/large companies Europe Extra-Europe 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% All companies Medium/large companies All companies Medium/large companies Does not know/No answer: 4,3%

7.1.3 Warehouse management An important aspect of the organization of industrial/manufacturing companies is represented by the warehouse management. In that respect, about 80% of the respondents declare to operate at least one warehouse, a share exceeding 94% for larger and more structured companies. The majority of respondents (over 85% on average and around 80% for medium/large companies) own a warehuse, whilst the share of warehouse rent is in between 12% and 15%. Less than 2% of the overall respondents decided to outsource the management of the stock, a percentage increasing to 6% for medium/large enterprises. In general, most of the companies operate a single warehouse (92% of the total within the sample), whilst the average number of managed warehouses rises slightly (from 1,17 to 1,28) with reference to medium/large companies.

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How many warehouses are operated by the company? (% calculated over all respondents)

All companies Medium/large companies Do not Do not manage manage warehous warehous es es 5,7% 20,4%

Manage warehous es Manage 79,6% warehous es 94,3%

Own warehouse 85,5% Own warehouse 79,8%

Rent warehouse 12,7% Rent warehouse 14,3%

Outsourcing 1,8% Outsourcing 5,9%

More than More than one one 8,4% 12,0%

One One 91,6% 88,0%

Average number of warehouses by Average number of warehouses by 1,17 1,28 company company Average surface 713 mq Average surface 1.254 mq

Does not know/No answer: 1,5%

Looking at the related equipment and facilities available, medium/large companies are characterized by a remarkably greater use of technological tools for inventory and stock management. Apart from forklifts, that represent the most widespread handling equipment, 32% of medium/large companies (against an average of less than 20%) adopt specific software for the warehouse management and are characterized, although to a limited extent, by the use of handling cooperatives (6,3%) and by the competences of external professionals (4%).

In general, looking at the operations within the warehouse, various tools and technologies have been surveyed: overhead cranes (33%), automatic shelves (11%), packaging automation (14%), goods storage equipment (6%).

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Which equipment/facilities are available for operations in the warehouse? (% calculated over all respondents)

All companies Medium/large companies

Forklift 85,2% Forklift 98,6%

Overhead crane 33,3% Overhead crane 42,6% Warehouse management Warehouse management 19,8% 31,1% software software Packaging automation Packaging automation 13,6% 18,5% systems systems Automatic shelves 11,1% Automatic shelves 12,2%

Storage equipment 6,2% Storage equipment 10,8%

Solar panels 6,2% Solar panels 6,8% External professional External professional 2,5% 6,3% resources resources Handling companies 1,0% Handling companies 4,1%

Does not know/No answer: 2,5%

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The majority of the respondents operate a warehouse in the same municipality wherein the company is mainly located (87%), while just in very few situations the warehouses are located within a freight village. A greater variability is observed for the medium/large companies, which mostly have a warehouse close to the main location of the company (about 66% of the companies have a warehouse in their own municipality) but, given the greater number of warehouses managed on average (1,28), a not negligible share of warehouses is located in the same province (9%), outside the province (7,6%), outside the region (5,3%) and abroad (12%). There is also a higher frequency of warehouses located within freight villages (about 10%).

Warehouses locations

All companies Medium/large companies Same Other province Same province province in Veneto 4,2% Other Outside 9,1% 7,6% province Veneto in Veneto 5,3% 3,9% Outside Same All'estero Veneto municipali 12,1% Same 5,2% ty municipali 65,9% ty 86,7%

Within a dryport Within a 0,9% dryport 9,6% Outside a Outside a dryport dryport 90,4% 99,1%

Does not know/No answer: 0,9% The presence and the services provided by freight villages within Veneto does not seem to attract remarkably manufacturing companies in Veneto, since only 6,5% of them show some interest in the possibility of interaction with these structures.

This lack of interest is primarily linked, in most cases, to organizational reasons (66%), which depend in turn on the transport structure and organization of the company: indeed, since many firms operate in a limited area, the freight and logistics organization has a remarkable share of own account management, i.e. without asking for external expertise and services. Secondly, warehousing facilities offered by the freight villages do not always meet the necessary requirements for the storage of goods, in particular in relation to the availability of very small warehouses (26%). Notably, shortcomings possibly related to the high fares (13%), to the location of structures (7.5%) and to the duration of the contracts (4%) seem to play a marginal role.

Looking at medium/large companies, freight villages are taken into consideration slightly above the average (14%), and amongst the reasons preventing interest towards these structures a substantial

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role is played by the cost of the fares and of the services offered (27% ). However, also for this category of firms, reasons related to their internal organization are one of the main obstacles for a widespread interaction with freight villages (42%) and the lack of adequate available storage facilities is also more significant (24%).

Interest towards freight villages

All companies Medium/large companies Potential Potential interest interest 6,5% 14,1%

No No interest interest 85,9% 93,5%

Reason for interest Reasons for lack of interest (% calculated over all respodents) (% calculated over all respodents)

Organizational 66,0% Organizational 42,2%

Inadequate facilities and Inadequate facilities and 26,4% 26,7% infrastructures infrastructures

Economic reasons (i.e. high Economic reasons (i.e. high 13,2% 24,4% fares) fares)

Localization of regional Localization of regional freight 7,5% 8,9% freight villages villages

Duration of the contracts 3,8% Duration of the contracts 4,4%

Does not know/No answer: 1,9%

7.1.4 Current issues and development perspectives The inefficiency and the lack of logistical infrastructures is strictly connected to the broader issue of the quality of the overall transport infrastructures in the area: highways, road and rail networks, ports, freight villages and airports.

The general opinion expressed by manufacturing companies about the regional highways is generally more than sufficient (average rating of 6,6 on a scale from 1 to 10) although the issue of the increasing fares (and indirectly of the increasing cost of the road transport due to the fuel price) is pointed out by a remarkable share of the medium/large companies, which perform a greater number of shipments per month. Notably, a significant appreciation for the accessibility to the highway network – varying between 6,8 across all respondents and 7,4 for the medium/large companies – is observed, thanks to the frequency and to the position of the regional highway junctions.

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Judgment about regional infrastructures - Highways (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

All companies Medium/large companies

Proximity 6,8 7,4

Service costs/fares 6,0 5,6

Efficiency/performances 6,6 6,8

Average 6,5 6,6

Does not know/No answer: 2,4% The opinion expressed about the freight villages is just sufficient (6,1) with a slightly more severe evaluation by the medium/large companies (5,9). The main shortcoming does not refer to either the characteristics or the performance/efficiency of the service offered, but rather to the costs that partly affect their attractiveness. A not sufficient average rating of 5.8 is also assigned to the average accessibility of some freight villages.

Judgment about regional infrastructures – Freight villages (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

All companies Medium/large companies

Proximity 5,8 6,1

Service costs/fares 6,0 5,6

Efficiency/performances 6,6 5,9

Average 6,1 5,9

Does not know/No answer: 4,8% The scarce use of regional ports by small enterprises suggests shifting attention especially towards medium/large companies, which express an overall positive judgment of 6,3 with a greater appreciation for the efficiency and the speed of service 6,6 rather than to the accessibility of the ports themselves (score 6,1). The service costs is definitely regarded as acceptable (score 6,3).

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Judgment about regional infrastructures - Ports (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

All companies Medium/large companies

Proximity 5,6 6,1

Service costs/fares 6,0 6,3

Efficiency/performances 6,5 6,6

Average 6,0 6,3

Does not know/No answer: 5,2% Regional airports are those achieving the highest average appreciation (evaluation score of 6,6) with a remarkable appreciation for the proximity of the airports (7,2) and the efficiency of the services offered (6,8). A more critical evaluation is in fact reported for the costs (5,7). For medium/large companies, the overall judgment equals 6,4 from a general standpoint and 6,7 with reference to the accessibility of the airports.

Judgment about regional infrastructures - Airports (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

Proximity 7,2 6,7

Service costs/fares 5,7 6,1

Efficiency/performances 6,8 6,4

Average 6,6 6,4

Does not know/No answer: 3,0%

Amongst the factors mainly affecting the profitability of the companies’ activities, the first place is occupied by the increase in fuel prices, which clearly indicates that a main current issue is the problem of the cost management which has been heavily penalizing the business nowadays. Other highlighted problems relate to the excess of competition in the business sector (7,5) as well as the payment delays by the customers (7.3), which are in turn related to the difficulty of access to bank

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credit. Secondary issues are the shortcomings in the freight and logistics infrastructures, the inadequacy of the regional road network (6,3), and the lack of effective territorial policies (5,9).

Shifting the focus towards the emerging and more structured companies, a main problem is the increasing competition with the emerging foreign economies, who often enhance their competitiveness by applying not always correct marketing strategies. Venetian companies feel not protected from this standpoint and suffer largely of the lack of an economic policy that protects their interests (score 6,5). Furthermore, the issue of costs also raises, primarily related to transport, given the constant rise in fuel prices (7,8). To a lesser extent, they evidence difficulties related to the delays in customers’ payments (6,5) and the difficulties of access to credit (5.2), whilst the low profitability trend is judged in line with the trend (4,8).

Factors affecting activities and operations (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

All companies Medium/large companies

8,1 Increase of fuel prices 7,8

7,5 High market competition 8,5

7,3 Delays in customers payments 6,5

6,9 Difficulty in access to credit 5,2

6,3 Inefficiency of the transport infrastructures 5,7

5,9 Inadequate regional territorial and transport policies 6,4

4,9 Low profitability 4,8

Does not know/No answer: 3,3% The cooperation between companies may be seen as a key strategy to overcome this shortcoming: about 1 over 3 companies expressed a remarkable interested towards establishing relationships and this proportion rises to 65% if accounting just for the medium/large companies. Amongst the various forms of possible cooperation, manufacturing companies mainly seek the opportunity to enter into agreements with other companies (53%). However, medium/large companies seem to be more versatile in that respect, emphasizing the interest towards joining already existing groups (36%), but not disregarding the possibility of creating a consortium (27%) or a joint venture (21%). Those not interested in the cooperation between firms evidenced primarily the risk of losing their autonomy

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and their customers (66%/15% overall and 48%/31% for medium/large companies respectively), while the lack of a suitable partner is seen only as a partial limit (12% on average compared to 22% of medium/large companies).

Interest towards cooperation among companies

All companies Medium/large companies

No Potential interest interest 35,1% 32,8%

No interest 67,2%

Potential interest 64,9%

Types of cooperations Types of cooperations

Formal contract /cooperation Adherence to an already 52,6% 35,7% agreement signed existing group

Establishment of a Establishment of a 21,1% 28,6% consortium consortium

Joint venture 15,8% Joint venture 21,4%

Adherence to an already Formal contract /cooperation 10,5% 14,3% existing group agreement signed

Reasons for lack of interest Reasons for lack of interest

Need to preserve autonomy 65,9% Need to preserve autonomy 47,8%

Difficulty in finding an 14,6% adequate partnership Risk of losing clients 30,5%

Risk of losing clients 12,2%

Difficulty in finding an 21,7% Not interested at all 7,3% adequate partnership

Does not know/No answer: 2,4%

Apart from the possibility of interacting with other firms, there is not a clear strategy to be taken in order to succeed in recovering the business. As a consequence, more than half of companies does not have a defined strategy, with this proportion falling slightly when considering only the medium/large companies.

However, amongst those who have already planned a recovery plan, the most popular strategies refer to the opportunity to diversify the customers/client and to the need to expand market share, since they are directly perceived as the most effective strategies to support the production activities. Besides the increase in production capacity, it is also worth noting the opportunity to diversify the

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type of service (33% for overall companies and 22% for medium/large), while the applications of certifications and patents is pursued just by companies with a more complex internal organization (15%).

Which strategies are likely to be followed in the near future?

All companies Medium/large companies

Well defined Well 48,9% defined 56,4%

Still Still unclear unclear 43,6% 51,1%

Strategies to be followed Strategies to be followed (% calculated over all respondents) (% calculated over all respondents) Clients/customers 49,3% diversification Increase products supply 39,3% Clients/customers 36,8% Increase products supply 46,3% diversification

Increase services variety 22,0% Increase services variety 32,8% Cooperate with other 17,1% companies Cooperate with other 7,5% Certificate the company/new companies 14,6% patents Certificate the 1,5% company/new patents Other 9,8%

Does not know/No answer: 4,8%

7.1.5 Characteristics of the sample In order to describe briefly the type and the characteristics of the enterprises involved in the survey, it should be primarily noted that they operate mainly in the timber (22%), textile and metal (20% each) commodity sectors. The sector of mechanical engineering and machinery accounts for 13% of the sample, closely followed by companies in the chemical/plastic/glass/paper (12%). The food and the electric/electronics companies, finally, count for less than 10% (9% and 4% respectively). From a geographical standpoint, Padova is the most represented province (approximately 25%), closely followed by Treviso (20%), Vicenza (16%) and Verona (15%).

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Respondents by commodity sector

Food 8,8%

Textiles, clothing, tanning 19,7%

Furniture and wood 21,9% Chemistry, plast, glass, 12,4% paper Metal and metal products 19,7% Mechanical engineering 13,1% and machinery Electrical and electronics 4,4%

Respondents by province

Vicenza 16,1% Belluno 5,1% Verona 14,6%

Venezia Padova 9,5% 24,8%

Treviso Rovigo 20,4% 9,5% The distribution of enterprises by legal form highlights, from one hand, the prevalence of S.n.c. (40%) and S.r.l. (34%) when considering the sample representative of the manufacturing sector as a whole, also with a significant proportion of individual firms (20%).

Respondents by legal form

Individual company 20,4%

S.n.c. 40,1%

S.a.s. 3,6%

S.r.l. 33,6%

S.p.a. 1,5%

Cooperative 0,8%

Looking at the year of foundation, surveyed companies are distributed fairly evenly among the four classes considered: 1 of 4 began operating before 1980, while 31% was established in the eighties. In

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turn, 23% began its activities between 1991 and 2000, while the more recently established companies represent 21% of the sample.

Respondents by year of foundation

Before After 2000 1980 21,2% 25,5%

Between Between 1981 and 1991 and 1990 2000 30,7% 22,6% Does not know/No answer: 1,4% As stated previously, a subsample of medium/large companies was extrapolated and interviewed. Overall, however, the majority of the sample is represented by companies with more than 5 employees (44%), while 26% of companies have a number of employees between 6 and 10 units. In the highest categories, 14% of firms have in between 11 and 20 employees and 16% have over 20 employees.

Respondents by class of workers

More than 20 15,7% Between 11 and 20 14,2%

Up to 5 44,0% Between 6 and 10 26,1% Does not know/No answer: 2,7%

The small-medium average size of the companies in Veneto is also reflected on their distribution by turnover class, in which only a little over a third of companies has a turnover higher than one million Euros per year. By contrast, however, looking just to medium/large companies, this percentage exceeds 56%, with on the contrary just 20% of the companies below the 500.000 Euros/year threshold.

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Respondents by turnover class

All companies Medium/large companies

Less than 100.000 € 9,0% Less than 500.000 € 2,6%

100.000 - 250.000 € 15,7% 501.000 - 1 million € 10,4% 251.000 - 500.000 € 22,4%

501.000 - 1 million € 17,9% 1 - 2 million € 20,6%

1 - 2 million € 28,4% More than 2 million € 66,4% More than 2 million € 6,6%

Does not know/No answer: 5,9%

7.2 Survey to transport/logistics operators After the analysis of the transport and logistics organization from the demand side (i.e. industrial/manufacturing companies), a focus on the supply side has been performed through the survey to logistics and freight companies, in order to draw a comparison on the relevant management and organizational strategies of the two reference contexts, as well as understanding how the transport and logistics is facing the economic downturn. Investigated logistics activities include all those dedicated to freight handling, shipments organization and the whole series of services related to the activities of storage and warehouse management. The sample was divided into three different types of services: from one hand, companies providing just transport services representing the largest share of the sample (48,5%), whilst the other half is divided between basic logistics services (35%) and companies that offer integrated logistics solutions (17%).

Companies by type of service

Advanced logistics 16,7%

Basic logistics 34,8% Just transport 48,5%

A first aspect to be accounted for in the world of logistics is the type of traded goods: a first relevant classification depends on whether a single commodity class is handled (single-product companies) or more commodities are handled together (multi-product companies). Notably, about 57% of the companies offering basic logistics services belongs to the former category, whilst a more uniform distribution is recorded for transport-oriented enterprises (about half of them is multi-product). In terms of market shares for each traded commodity, the first rank is occupied by foodstuff and

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related products (42% of respondents), closely followed by the transport of building materials (39%), mechanics and machines manufacturing (38%), and textile/clothing (35%).

Companies by type of traded commodities

Multi-business Single-business % calculated over all respondents

Agriculture/food 42,4% 43,5% 45,5% Building Materials 39,4% 50,4%

Machinery and vehicles 37,9%

Textiles / clothing 34,8%

Furniture / furnishings 34,8% 56,5% 54,5% Chemicals / Petroleum 34,8% 49,6%

Steel products 33,3%

Leather / footwear 31,8% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics Does not know/No answer: 1,2%

With reference to the expected working peak at the end of the year, an index which may synthesize the current status of the sector, an higher level can be observed with respect to the monthly average, even if the amount of work is lower than that recorded in the pre-crisis period (45% of respondents). Transport services suffer the highest decrease (35%), whilst the most advanced companies (67% for advanced logistics) in the year are still experiencing a workload concentration, although at lower levels with respect to the pre-crisis period.

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Does the company still face a workload peak at the end of the year if compared to the pre-crisis trends?

No 27,4% Yes 27,5%

Moderate 45,1%

100,0% 11,1% 24,9% 80,0% 34,6%

60,0% 43,8% 66,7% 38,5% 40,0%

20,0% 31,3% 26,9% 22,2% 0,0% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics Does not know/No answer: 1,3% Based on the results of the survey, one fifty of the sample is controlled by another entity, which in most of the cases operates at an international level. This happens mainly and especially for basic logistics companies, subsidiaries of larger firms operating in an international context (40%). This tendency is observed to a lesser extent for companies offering integrated logistics (about 20%), and it is rare for pure transport operators (less than 10%).

Is the company a subsidiary of a larger (possibly International) company?

100,0%

Controlled 80,0% Not 20,3% controlled Not 60,0% Not controlled controlled 40,0% Not controlled 20,0% Controlled 79,7% Controlled Controlled 0,0% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics

Does not know/No answer: 1,4%

7.2.1 Reference customers and target market Manufacturing companies are mostly using services offered by transport/logistics enterprises: in detail, the small/medium enterprises require mostly only basic transport services (over 60%), while

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storage and integrated logistics rely on mostly large industries and distribution/wholesale center. Notably, the big foreign freight forwarders cover just a little market share, and are basically interested just into transport services.

May you indicate how your turnover is subdivided amongst the types of reference customers?

Small/medium manufacturers Large manufacturers Retail/wholesale Services/Public Freight forwarders

100,0%

80,0%

60,0%

40,0%

20,0%

0,0% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics

Does not know/No answer: 3,5% Relationships with customers are, in most cases, stable and durable (74%), while only a small proportion result from occasional collaborations (6.5%). On average, a transport/logistics service over five is formally established, with an average duration of the contract of around 12 months (59%), however contracts during more than an year are also quite common (42%). This applies primarily to the most advanced logistics companies, that work with formal agreements (about 1 over 2), while basic transport and logistics activities have a very stable but not formally established portfolio of customers.

The formalization of the relationships is quite common towards wholesalers and large distribution centers, while shippers and freight forwarders, albeit being a very small part of the overall customers, show a greater variability. Industrial/manufacturing companies, however, mainly base their relationships on the personal knowledge and in less than 20% of cases the cooperation is formalized through a contract.

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Types of relationships disaggregated by type of service and contract

Regular 74,2% Contract 19,3% Up to 1 year 58,5%

More than 1 year 41,5% Spot 6,5%

Spot Regular Contract

100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0% 60,0%

40,0% 60,0% 20,0%

40,0% 0,0%

20,0%

Freight

Large

forwarders

Small/medium manufacturers manufacturers 0,0% Services/Public Retail/wholesale Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics

Does not know/No answer: 2,8%

The analysis of the reference markets show that the main destinations are located abroad in 37% of cases, while 24% of companies operate throughout Italy. The widest target basin is expressed by advanced logistics companies, whilst transport companies operate in a uniform way both at the local level and to/from international markets. A similar pattern is found also for single-product companies, those offering a more complete service focus instead towards larger domestic and foreign markets, with a less remarkable presence within the regional market.

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Which is your reference market? (% calculated over all respondents)

37,1%

27,4% 24,2%

17,7%

Local North Italy Italy International

Local North Italy Italy International

60,0% 50,0% 50,0% 40,0% 40,0% 30,0% 30,0% 20,0% 20,0% 10,0% 10,0%

0,0% 0,0%

business

business

- -

Just transport Just

Multi

Basic logisticsBasic Single

Advancedlogistics Does not know/No answer: 2,1% The non-domestic destinations are concentrated mainly within Europe, primarily to European Union countries (53%). The Middle East markets are also quite popular (35%), as well as the African countries, especially those along the Mediterranean coasts (32%). China and Southeast Asian markets are served by 30% of firms, while North America is a limited prerogative of a set of smaller companies (22% of respondents).

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Which are the main extra-national destinations?

(% calculated over all respondents)

EU27 52,6%

Other European Countries 47,8%

Middle East 34,8%

Africa 32,4%

China .- Far East 30,4%

North America 21,6%

Central - South America 17,4%

Oceania 13,0%

Does not know/No answer: 1,6%

7.2.2 Transport organization Road transport remains the most offered and adopted transport service by transport/logistics companies, similarly with industrial/manufacturing companies. This happens because national transport is satisfied almost exclusively by truck, with just a marginal share operated by rail or by air.

The market segments of the international shipments and of worldwide logistics are much more complex. Notably, a more widespread use of the maritime option can be observed for relevant European origins/destinations. Rail transport remains still marginal, whilst the market share of air transport becomes significant, even if less important with respect to the industrial/manufacturing companies.

The higher use of the maritime transport observed for transport and logistics providers with respect to the manufacturing companies depends on the different composition of their target markets: from one hand, United States is a major trading partner especially for medium to large manufacturing companies, who adopt largely air transport for this destination, whilst transport/logistics providers are more projected towards the Balkans, the Middle East and Mediterranean, for which the use of maritime cargo is more widespread.

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Transport mode by reference market

Road Rail Sea Air

Northern Italy Italy 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% Producers Logistics operators Producers Logistics operators Europe Extra-Europe 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% Producers Logistics operators Producers Logistics operators Reference ports for International trade to/from Veneto

5,2% 11,3%

Tyrrhenian 94,8% 88,7% Adriatic

Europa Extra-Europe Does not know/No answer: 4,4%

The average number of monthly shipments is estimated in 28/29 trips both for the domestic market and for European destinations. For intercontinental markets, however, the number of shipments sums to around 21 trips per month, clearly and obviously higher than that reported by manufacturing companies (around 6 monthly shipments).

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Average number of monthly consignments by reference market

Producers Logistics operators

North Italy Italy

18,3 16,5

28,9 28,2

Europe Extra-Europe

10,8 6,4

29,5 21,1

Does not know/No answer: 3,6% The type of used intermodal transport unit is obviously strictly related to the mode of transport adopted. On a national and European level, given the prevalence of road transport, trailers are mostly used, while at the intercontinental level shipping containers and air containers are mostly common.

A comparison between manufacturing companies and transport/logistics providers highlights two organizational systems with contemporarily some similarities and also some important differences. Intuitively, transport/logistics providers declare a much lower incidence of full truck load shipments with respect to manufacturing companies. Swap bodies, in both surveyed reference universes, reach a significant share in transport along the main national or European directions, whilst the use of air containers for overseas destinations is higher among manufacturing companies compared to the transport/logistics providers.

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(Intermodal) transport unit by reference market

Swap bodies Trailers Trucks Container Air container

Northern Italy Italy 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% Producers Logistics operators Producers Logistics operators

Europe Extra-Europe 100,0% 100,0%

80,0% 80,0%

60,0% 60,0%

40,0% 40,0%

20,0% 20,0%

0,0% 0,0% Producers Logistics operators Producers Logistics operators Does not know/No answer: 3,8% Intermodal rail transport is not particularly adopted, but has the potential to attract the interest of relevant operators, especially among companies dealing with advanced logistics services. Over 60% of them, in fact, has used or intends to use rail services in future, unlike basic transport and logistics providers which are less attracted by rail transport (respectively 33% and 13%).

Such lack of interest refers, in most cases, to organizational reasons (56%), which include a whole series of evaluations which do not act towards an effective integration with regional freight villages. In detail, relevant issues affecting this interaction refer to the difficulty of access to railway stations (32%) and to the low efficiency of the service (29%), by virtue of a systemic lack of infrastructure supporting logistics operations. Costs/fares represent only a marginal negative factor (12.5%), as well as the bureaucracy and the loss of competitiveness due to the need of signing a contract for providing the service (3%).

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Have you used/do you intend to use railway services within your business?

100,0%

80,0% NO

NO 60,0% NO

40,0% YES

20,0% YES YES 0,0% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics % calculated over all respondents

Organizational 56,3%

Localization of regional 31,9% freight villages

Inadequate facilities and 28,8% infrastructures

Economic reasons (i.e. high 12,5% fares)

Duration of the contracts 3,1%

Does not know/No answer: 2,6%

7.2.3 Warehouse management The warehouse management represents one of the core activities of logistics operators, even if obviously not all the firms within the sample offer this type of service, which is for instance optional for purely oriented transport providers. One respondent over five five, in fact, is not responsible for the management of warehouses (since he/she relates only to activities related to transport services). From the other side, the managed warehouses are mainly owned (52%), with a small market share for rented warehouses (27%), as well as for the outsourcing of the inventory management (21%). On average, the companies in the sample operate 3 warehouses corresponding to an area greater than 3.100 square meters per warehouse.

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Do you manage a warehouse for your activities?

Do not manage warehous es 21,0%

Manage warehous es 79,0%

Own warehouse 51,9%

Rent warehouse 26,9%

Outsourcing 21,2%

Average number of warehouses by company 2,83 Average surface 3.132 mq

Does not know/No answer: 2,8% With reference to warehouse equipments and facilities, forklifts are the most common equipment (97%) and 37% of the surveyed companies also own an overhead crane for goods handling. Furthermore, 4 respondents over 10 declared to use a specific software for inventory management and 16% of the sample manage an automatic shelving system. 13% of firms also have automation systems for packaging, while less than 10% make use of subsidiary cooperatives for loading/unloading trucks and for the storage of goods. Rare is the use of external expertise for the management of structures, a circumstance which reflects the tendency towards an independent management of the warehouse activities, mainly by exploiting internal skills.

In terms of location, 56% of the warehouses are located near the company headquarters but, unlike the productive enterprises for which almost all warehouses are located within the same municipality wherein the company operates, they are much more widespread, with a noteworthy percentage at the provincial level (33%) and some cases with a whole national coverage (5,8%) or even abroad (2,3% ).

Significant is the proportion of warehouses located within freight villages (38% of respondents), with a higher frequency of providers of advanced logistics activities (almost 60%), whereas this proportion drops to 40% for logistics companies and is just over 20% for basic transport operators.

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Which equipment/facilities do you normally use for warehouse management and operations? (% calculated over all respondents)

Forklift 96,8%

Warehouse management software 44,2%

Overhead crane 36,6%

Storage equipment 15,8%

Automatic shelves 15,8%

Packaging automation systems 13,2%

Handling companies 7,9%

External professional resources 5,3%

Solar panels 2,6%

Other 5,3%

Does not know/No answer: 2,5%

Warehouses locations

Other Same province province in Veneto 32,6% 3,5% Outside Veneto 5,8% Abroad 2,3% Same municipali ty 55,8%

100,0%

80,0% Outside a Outside a Outside a dryport dryport Outside a dryport 62,2% 60,0% dryport

40,0% Within a Within a dryport 20,0% Within a dryport Within a dryport 37,8% dryport 0,0% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics Does not know/No answer: 1,2%

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The possibility of locating the warehouses within the freight villages is of interest for a transport/logistics company over five. Whilst pure transport companies are basically not interested, the possibility of an integration grows in proportion with the quality of performed logistics services (40% for the basic logistics providers and almost 60% for advanced logistics providers).

High fare levels represent the main obstacle for the interaction with freight villages (43%), while the issues related to consignment organization, representing the primary issue for manufacturing companies, account just for the third rank in the view of the logistics operators (22%), after the difficulties of access to infrastructures (40%), a clear symptom of not entirely effective internal road connections.

Interest towards dryports

100,0%

Potential 80,0% interest 20,7% No No 60,0% No interest interest interest

40,0% No interest 79,3% 20,0% Potential Potential Potential interest interest 0,0% interest Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics Reason for lack of interest (% calculated over all respondents)

Economic reasons (i.e. high 42,6% fares)

Localizzazione interporti 39,6%

Localization of regional freight 22,1% villages

Does not know/No answer: 2,9%

7.2.4 Current issues and development perspectives In terms of overall judgment about the transport and logistics infrastructures on the territory of Veneto, a positive opinion is expressed regarding the highway network (average score 6,7), with a particular positive evaluation of the proximity of the junctions (6,8) and of the efficiency of the service (6,9). Rather more critical judgment are proposed on the costs/fares (6,3), although the evaluation is less negative than that shown by the production companies (6,0).

The evaluation of freight villages, for the respondents somewhat interacting with them, is substantially positive in terms of efficiency and speed of service (6,8), while the sufficiency is hardly reached with reference to the storage requirements and to the fares/tariffs applied. Overall,

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however, a better opinion than that expressed by manufacturing companies is registered (6,4 against 6,1). The increased use of ports by logistics operators enhances further the largely positive judgment expressed (7,5), with a greater appreciation for the accessibility of the port structures (7,7) and with a slightly lower appreciation for the cost and the efficiency of the service (respectively 7,5 and 7,4). The speed of air transport for intercontinental shipments represents the most successful aspect of the use of airports (rated 7,6), but also their accessibility is judged positively (6,9). The evaluation of the related costs/fares is instead sufficient, with a 6,3.

Judgment about regional infrastructures - Highways (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

Producers Logistics operators

Proximity 6,8 6,8

Service costs/fares 6,0 6,3

Efficiency/performances 6,6 6,9

Average 6,5 6,7

Does not know/No answer: 2,5% Judgment about regional infrastructures – Freight villages (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

Proximity 5,8 6,1

Service costs/fares 6,0 6,2

Efficiency/performances 6,6 6,8

Average 6,1 6,4

Does not know/No answer: 3,7%

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Judgment about regional infrastructures - Ports (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

Producers Logistics operators

Proximity 5,6 7,7

Service costs/fares 6,0 7,5

Efficiency/performances 6,5 7,4

Average 6,0 7,5

Does not know/No answer: 4,9%

Judgment about regional infrastructures - Airports (1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

Proximity 7,2 6,9

Service costs/fares 5,7 6,3

Efficiency/performances 6,8 7,6

Average 6,6 6,9

Does not know/No answer: 5,0%

The increase of fuel prices also represents a main issue for logistics operators, in the context of the wider problem of costs which is the current main problem (relevance equal to 7,9). A more critical judgment is reported with reference to the inadequacy of infrastructures and road network (score of 7.,1 compared with the 6,3 given by manufacturing companies) and also the high competition from Eastern European countries is pointed out as a critical issue, which affects the price of the services and reduces the revenues (votes respectively equal to 7,1 and 5,4 for prices and revenues). Finally,

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other relevant issues are the delays in customers payment (6,5), the difficulties in access to bank credit (5,9%) and the lack of policies to boost local economic development (5,3).

Factors affecting activities and operations

(1 to 10 scale with 1 minimum and 10 maximum)

Producers Logistics operators

8,1 Increase of fuel prices 7,9

7,5 High market competition 7,1

7,3 Delays in customers payments 6,5

6,9 Difficulty in access to credit 5,9

6,3 Inefficiency of the transport infrastructures 7,1

5,9 Inadequate regional territorial and transport policies 5,3

4,9 Low profitability 5,4

Does not know/No answer: 3,2% The interest towards external collaborations is one of the key strategies to overcome the current economic downturn: two out of three companies, indeed, declare their willingness to collaborate with other companies, especially with reference to business sectors involving basic or advanced logistics activities. Amongst the possible forms of cooperation, the most common are related to formal agreements (33%), but also important is the willingness to establish consortia to optimize resources and reduce costs (29%). The possibility of creating a joint venture is also quite common(24%), whilst however less importance is paid to procedures leading to join an existing group (9.5%) or to participate in a network of franchisees (5%).

The risk of losing autonomy is the main constraint preventing effective cooperation with other companies (46%) and another common motivation is also related to the fear of losing their customers (27%). In turn, amongst companies reporting this feeling, about 18% is not interested at all in establishing relationships with other enterprises, while just less than 10% relates this disinterest to the lack of a suitable partner within the regional territory.

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Participation/interest towards cooperation between enterprises

100,0% No No No interest interest 80,0% No interest 32,3% interest 60,0%

40,0% Interest Interest Interest 20,0% Interest 67,7% 0,0% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics Types of cooperations Reasons for the lack of interest

Formal contract /cooperation 33,3% Need to preserve agreement signed 45,5% autonomy Establishment of a 28,6% consortium Risk of losing clients 27,3% Joint venture 23,8%

Adherence to an already Not interested at all 18,1% 9,5% existing group

Difficulty in finding an 4,8% 9,1% Franchising adequate partnership

Does not know/No answer: 2,7% The business market of transport and logistics may be prevalently boosted again, after the economic downturn, through key strategies that relevant companies intend to follow in the near future: from this standpoint, about half of the sample has already planned some form of medium-term strategies, particularly within the sector of advanced logistics services. Main business strategies include differentiation of the type of service (38%), extension/diversification of the supplied products (31%), but at the same time the possibility of creating alliances or international consortia to reduce costs (36%) and to broaden target markets (31%) is regarded as relevant.

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Which business strategies do you intend to follow in the near future?

100,0%

80,0% Well Well Well defined defined defined Well 51,6% 60,0% defined

40,0% Still Still unclear unclear 20,0% Still Still unclear unclear 0,0% 48,4% Just transport Basic logistics Advanced logistics Strategies to be followed (% calculated over all respondents)

Increase services variety 37,5%

Cooperate with other 35,6% companies Clients/customers 31,3% diversification

Increase products supply 31,3%

Certificate the 8,1% company/new patents

Other 3,1%

Does not know/No answer: 3,2%

7.2.5 Characteristics of the sample It is finally worth looking at the characteristics of the transport/logistics companies by legal status, it reveals a high concentration of S.r.l. (61%) and S.p.a. (24%), while the other societary forms appear more marginal in the surveyed sample (individual firms 3,6%; S.n.c. 6,6%; S.a.s. 5,2%).

Respondents by legal status

S.p.a. Individual 23,9% company 3,6% S.n.c. 6,6% S.a.s. 5,2%

S.r.l. 60,7%

In terms of distribution of respondents by year of foundation, the starting year for business activity is evenly distributed in four classes: about 23% are operating after 2000, while amongst the oldest about 30% started its activities in the Eighties and about 26% between 1980 and 1990.

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Respondents by year of foundation

After 2000 Before 22,8% 1980 29,8%

Between Between 1981 and 1991 and 1990 2000 26,3% 21,1% Does not know/No answer: 1,7% In terms of staff employed, about 39% of the interviewed companies employ over 20 workers, while less than 1 company on 4 ranks in the lower class (11-20 employees). Micro-enterprises (up to 5 employees) account for just over a fifth of the sample and include almost exclusively only companies providing transport services.

Respondents by number of workers

Up to 5 21,7%

More than 20 39,2% Between 6 and 10 15,2%

Between 11 and 20 23,9% Does not know/No answer: 2,4% The distribution by class of turnover reflects the structure of the sample by number of employees, with a turnover of over 2 million for about 38% of the sample, plus a 7,7% that belongs to the immediately lower cluster. Companies under 100.000 Euros account for about 23% of the universe.

Respondents by turnover class

More than 2 million € Less than 38,4% 100.000 € 23,1%

1 - 2 million € 7,7% 100.000 - 501.000 - 250.000 € 1 million € 251.000 - 7,7% 7,7% 500.000 € 15,4% Does not know/No answer: 3,9%

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8 Analysis of the labour and enterprise markets

8.1 Working in the transport and logistics sector in Veneto

8.1.1 The Veneto Lavoro database The database of Veneto Lavoro, the body established by the Veneto region in 1998, has a fundamental importance for the assessment of the consistency and quality of employment in the transport and logistics sector in Veneto. At a glance, the total employment in transport and logistics, according to the INPS data related to employees (Figure 72 and Figure 72), can be estimated in 2011 to around 68-70 thousand units, with approximately 4.400 companies29.

Data at the end of 2010 ATECO 81 sector code companies workers Road transport 3.774 33.229 Inland waterways 107 726 Maritime transport 190 1.282 Air transport 6 253 Transport-related activities 155 5.122 Freight forwarders, travel agencies, 154 8.168 warehouses, transport intermediary Communications 15 92 Total 4.401 48.872

Source: INPS

Figure 72 – Number of companies and workers in the transport sector (ATECO code 81) in Veneto (year 2010)

ATECO 81 sector code Workers (monthly average)

Road transport 40.490 Maritime transport and inland waterways 2.019 Air transport 673 Freight forwarders, travel agencies, warehouses, 20.409 transport intermediary Total transport 63.591 Total workers in Veneto 1.250.261

Source: INPS

Figure 73 – Number of workers (monthly average) in the transport sector (ATECO code 81) in Veneto (year 2010)

In accordance with consolidated criteria of selection of the ATECO codes, Veneto Lavoro provided dedicated elaborations for the sectors transport and warehousing, collecting ten types of information30:

29 Notably, the mentioned data comes from the INPS dataset, whilst the following tables use data from the Employment Centres. 30 Table numbering refers to the Excel file reported as annex to the current report. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 154

• quarterly recruitment (Table 1.1); • quarterly recruitment by type of contract (Table 1.1); • recruitment by contract type and gender (Table 1.2); • recruitment by contract type, status and gender (Table 1.3); • recruitment by contract type, position and age classes (Table 1.4); • recruitment by type of contract and citizenship (Italian and foreign) (Table 1.5); • recruitment for contract type, position and time (part time, full time) (Table 1.6); • annual balance by type of contract (Table 2.1); • annual balance by province (Table 2.2); • annual balance by county and nationality (Table 2.3).

Notably, the recruitment data relate to all types of contract (permanent employees, fixed-term, intermittent, quasi-employees, internships, stageires) whilst annual balances do not contain data on the quasi-subordinate employees, intermittent workers and internships (called "working experiences") .

The highest level of disaggregation occurs in the subdivision by qualification of the annual recruitment (96 different qualifications taken into account).

Obviously, there is no equivalence between new recruitment positions and people recruited, because the same person can be recruited several times during the year, more than 70% deal with contracts that may be considered "precarious" (e.g. temporary, project-based), while the permanent contracts also cover personal working in unstable condition for cooperatives. The relationship between the recruited/dismissed flows and employment stock is around 62%.

8.1.2 Results Logistics moved in Veneto more than 43.000 jobs last year, according to the 2011 data reported in the following Table 49 and Table 50.

Table 49 – Recruitment by type of contract and by quarter. Transport and warehousing sectors in Veneto

2009 2010 2011 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Employees Permanent 3.417 3.108 2.697 2.790 3.162 3.069 2.947 2.570 3.536 2.860 2.288 1.815 Apprenticeship 139 122 118 152 144 188 214 195 211 210 210 164 Time-definite 3.425 4.251 4.385 4.175 3.865 4.763 5.086 4.720 4.438 5.166 4.942 4.140 "Somministrazione" 508 740 756 544 667 1.238 1.501 1.517 2.043 2.872 2.006 1.610 Total 7.489 8.221 7.956 7.661 7.838 9.258 9.748 9.002 10.228 11.108 9.446 7.729 Other workers Intermittent 219 267 309 333 435 506 633 527 683 699 977 652 Domestic 2 3 2 3 2 1 4 3 Total 221 270 311 336 435 508 633 528 683 699 981 655 Pseudo-subordinate 474 193 270 289 551 407 292 272 380 302 357 342 Working experiences 116 50 41 43 51 76 106 71 106 106 79 81 Overall total 8.300 8.734 8.578 8.329 8.875 10.249 10.779 9.873 11.397 12.215 10.863 8.807

Source: Veneto Lavoro based on SIIV data

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Table 50 – Recruitment by type of contract and by gender. Transport and warehousing sectors in Veneto

2009 2010 2011 F M T F M T F M T Employees Permanent 2.817 9.195 12.012 2.787 8.961 11.748 2.554 7.945 10.499 Apprenticeship 173 358 531 217 524 741 254 541 795 Time-definite 3.763 12.473 16.236 3.872 14.562 18.434 3.983 14.703 18.686 "Somministrazione" 586 1.962 2.548 611 4.312 4.923 629 7.902 8.531 Total 7.339 23.988 31.327 7.487 28.359 35.846 7.420 31.091 38.511 Other workers Intermittent 120 1.008 1.128 241 1.860 2.101 356 2.655 3.011 Domestic 3 7 10 3 3 1 6 7 Total 123 1.015 1.138 241 1.863 2.104 357 2.661 3.018 Pseudo-subordinate 212 1.014 1.226 329 1.193 1.522 337 1.044 1.381 Working experiences 128 122 250 137 167 304 213 159 372 Overall total 7.802 26.139 33.941 8.194 31.582 39.776 8.327 34.955 43.282

Source: Veneto Lavoro based on SIIV data

What does it mean? The above data deal with the yearly “flow” of workers since the values are related to starting working position communicated to the Employment Centres, which should therefore be coupled with the dismissed positions, in order to derive the overall annual balance31. In 2011 there was a positive balance of 564 units, entirely due to foreign labor. In 2008 the positive balance amounted to 2.700 units, nullified in the following black year of the crisis when a negative balance of 2.694 units was observed. The balance has not been recovered yet in the following year 2010, which still had a negative balance of only 54 units (Table 18).

Table 51 – Dependent* working position by type of contract (yearly balance). Transport and warehousing sectors

2008 2009 2010 2011 Permanent positions 2.703 -1.828 -1.052 1.025 Apprenticeship 190 -386 -244 47 Time-definite -172 -457 1.177 -507 "somministrazione" -21 -23 62 -1 Total 2.700 -2.694 -57 564 * not accounting for domestic and intermittent work Source: elaborations by Veneto Lavoro on SIIV data

The stock data evidence that in 2011 the total employment was about 68.000 units, with a very high turnover in the field even taking into account that the same person may be counted multiple times in the case in which he/she has several contracts in the same years.

Does logistics offers stable jobs? Assuming always the last year (2011) as reference, 24,2% of the assumptions was permanent, 43.1% fixed-term, 19,7% temporary work, 6,9% intermittent and 3,1% related to specific projects. Unfortunately, even if the staff of the cooperatives of workers is registered with permanent contracts, many cooperatives were dissolved just after the ending of the contract acquired either directly or through consortia. So the actual stable work is far below the 24,2% and probably less than 7%, otherwise the very high turnover would not be explainable. Finally, 20% of the recruitment is also part-time.

31 Communications are mandatory, but unfortunately in the logistics sector also operate cooperatives not entirely complying with the regulations. It may be possible therefore that the information is incomplete by default, since some operators may have failed to fulfill the compulsory communication. RTP Marzano – Bologna – LAN Srl 156

The logistics industry is still a male-dominated employment (80,7%) but women are well represented in higher duties: female “white-collar” employees account for 46,3% whilst the 53,6% are males. The employment situation for unskilled occupation in reversed, since the males are in clear majority (83%) and women account for only 16,9%: indeed, this is still an area of heavy work, as clearly emerges from the distribution of qualifications: 34,1% porters, 15,9% drivers, 7,1% HGV drivers, 5,1% logistic management, 5,1% delivery activities, 3.3% secretarial employees, 3,2% other types of drivers, 2,4% warehousing employees, 2,3% receptionists. In total, those nine qualifications, out of 96 considered, represent 78,5% of the overall recruitment in the sector.

Logistics is a sector that absorbs youth employment, although unstable: 30,4% of recruitment in 2011 is represented by young people under the age of 26, 63,3% of adults, the remaining are older. Young people are mainly recruited through fixed-term contracts (35% of total) and quasi-employees (34%), while amongst permanent employment (26,2%), intermittent (23%) and administered in the work (19,3%) youth employment is present with a lower than average value in the sector. The large majority of young people lies in temporary unskilled occupations.

The logistics sector is very low in terms of human capital if the description of the job qualifications is taken as a criterion for assessing the business. On the contrary, as the workers in the sector know very well, it is a sector with an high implicit knowledge, characterized by a knowledge not codified and communicable only informally through direct experience: in other words, it is a typical environment of “knowing by doing”.

The largest component of labor force involved through personnel recruitment is unskilled staff, which reached 63,7% of employment in the province of Venice, 47,1% in Verona, 41,6% in Vicenza, 39,5% and 37,3% respectively in Rovigo and in Padua, while in the provinces of Treviso (26,8%) and Belluno (17,3%) has a very minor incidence. The second largest component is represented by the officers, whilst very qualified labor skills and managerial competences are very scarcely required. The intellectual professions have a negligible impact, technical occupations are more consistent but do not exceed 2,6% of contracts.

At the end of the third quarter of 2011, at the highest point of the small economic reprise after the 2008-2010 heavy downturn, the curve of employment had not yet reached the levels of November- December 2008, and they are quite far from the level of June 2008. In other words, the negative trend has not been absorbed yet and employment curve is likely to fall down again.

Very interesting is Table 52, that provides the breakdown by province and by nationality of the yearly recruitment balance. In the 2008-2011 period, logistics has absorbed 1.717 foreigners - mostly immigrants - and lost 1.204 Italian citizens.

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Table 52 – Dependent* working position by province and citizenship (yearly balance). Transport and warehousing sectors

foreign workers province 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008-2011 total Belluno 4 -12 10 13 15 Padova 148 -40 58 332 498 Rovigo 1 21 12 271 305 Treviso 143 -202 -5 111 47 Venezia 173 -72 72 76 249 Verona 959 -477 -1 -154 327 Vicenza 4 -16 59 229 276 Total 1.432 -798 205 878 1.717 italian workers province 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008-2011 total Belluno 36 -72 -34 -88 -158 Padova 192 -479 -198 -201 -686 Rovigo -21 -93 39 69 -6 Treviso 107 -218 7 -35 -139 Venezia 181 -343 12 -126 -276 Verona 574 -431 -48 -55 40 Vicenza 199 -260 -40 122 21 Total 1.268 -1.896 -262 -314 -1.204 * not accounting for domestic and intermittent work Source: elaboration by Veneto Lavoro based on SIIV data

These figures show quite clearly that the provinces hosting large public infrastructures and logistics facilities (freight villages in Padova and Verona, port in Venice) are also those with the most consistent positive employment balance. Padova is one that mostly recruit foreigners and dismiss Italian workers. From the standpoint of geographical distribution, taking as reference the third quarter of 2011, Venice occupies the first rank with about 10.500 new workers over a regional total of about 34.000, followed by more than 9.000 of Verona, 5.300 in Padova, 3.600 in Vicenza, 3.500 in Treviso, and at the end Rovigo and Belluno. Overall balances are therefore negative for 2009 and 2010, whilst 2011 provided for a positive balance of 564 units.

As shown by the 2011 data reported below, after the 2009 crisis the employment of foreign labor continued to increase whilst that of the Italian labor force continued to decline contemporarily. In particular, the province of Verona exhibited the most pronounced decrease in employment whilst Rovigo seems able to go on a growing trend. From interviews with representatives of trade unions, most of the foreign occupation depends on massive labor cooperatives that act often on the margins of legality. These cooperatives are organized in consortia, the contract for the management of the warehouse is often managed by the consortium itself that subcontracts one of its cooperatives. Therefore, the final customer is charged with the consortium and the consortium itself in turn pays the cooperative. Many large operators (TNT, GLS Artoni, Bartolini) decided to create own cooperatives in order not to depend on consortia. Trade unions also followed this path, but this was not enough to move the market on an acceptable level, since the pressure of consortia organized by

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religious-political movements is becoming stronger and stronger. As a result, a new type of entrepreneur is emerging, who constitutes new cooperatives, takes the contract, dissolves the cooperative, and back to the beginning. Evasion of tax obligations and contractual minima, missed payments, cloudy issued payrolls items are on the agenda of such business. Clearly, the quality of the investments and the tendencies towards higher technological levels are not compatible at all with this market context.

8.2 Warehousing, transport and logistics companies in Veneto

8.2.1 General characteristics of the sector Looking at the database by Unioncamere, the number of companies active in the transport and warehousing sectors in Veneto region increased from 14.897 in 2009 to 14.363 in 2011, i.e. a reduction of 3,5%. The 84,6% of this universe relates to "land transport" and the 12,8% works in the warehousing sector, summing up together to 97,5% of the relevant enterprises. It is interesting to note that land transport enterprises decreased by 5,8% in this period, whilst companies in the warehousing sector grew by 4,3%.

Cancellations during the crisis have far exceeded enrollment: 964 in 2009, 867 in 2010, 854 in 2011. In total, 2.685 companies have gone out of business within three years, 1.054 started but their number has gradually decreased over the years. In addition, during 2011 there was a 20% fewer entries than the year of crisis, i.e. in 2009. Overall, there are clear signs of a significant fear which prevents rapidly increasing business recoveries also in the presence of a more favorable (albeit short- lived) economic reprise.

Table 53 – Companies in the transport and logistics sectors in Veneto: year 2011 (source: Unioncamere)

province registered active enrolled stopped land transport warehousing Belluno 412 395 8 27 378 14 Padova 2.975 2.742 56 172 2.448 279 Rovigo 782 732 12 48 643 78 Treviso 2.403 2.220 46 136 2.013 187 Venezia 3.253 3.031 76 129 1.640 489 Verona 3.310 2.993 69 194 2.404 568 Vicenza 2.404 2.250 43 148 1.997 238 total 15.539 14.363 310 854 11.523 1.853

Looking more closely at the data for 2011 (Table 53), Venice is surprisingly the province with the highest number of active enterprises in 2011 and also with the highest number of new registration of companies. Verona and Padua, in part because of the high number of cancellations, despite the presence of the related freight villages and a consolidated logistics structure, are characterized by 2.993 and 2.742 active companies respectively. Also large is the number of companies in Vicenza and Treviso. Venice is also the province where the incidence of the "land transport" subset is smaller, whilst Treviso is the one with the highest incidence. Verona and Padua are almost balanced among themselves. The province of Venice hosts a very high number of companies active in warehousing, although the province of Verona is the first with 568 companies, more than double of those located in the province of Padua. Vicenza and Treviso follow with 238 and 187active companies respectively.

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Finally, looking at the number of firms by class of employees (Table 54), only a hundred companies is characterized by more than 100 employees, 55,3% has no more than 1 employee, 82,1% not more than 5 employees. Firms with more than 500 employees are mostly foreign.

Table 54 – Companies in transport and logistics sectors in Veneto: breakdown by employees class (2011 data)

employees classes # companies More than 500 9 between 250 and 499 24 between 100 and 249 70 between 50 and 99 137 between 20 and 49 495 between 10 and 19 902 between 6 and 9 1.142 between 2 and 5 4.162 1 7.605 0 993

Source: Unioncamere (data refers only to registered companies, therefore they should be treated as incomplete because the number of workers is not amongst the compulsory information to be provided).

8.2.2 Accounting analysis The analysis refers to a panel of 212 companies in the logistics sector in the Veneto region, which takes into account the economic performance over the last three financial years (2010, 2009, 2008). Data were extracted from databases available from the chambers of commerce and considered the following variables:

• revenues • costs of production • use of third-party properties • personnel costs • operating income • value added generated • net profit • staff development and trends • return on investment (ROI) • cash flow management • total assets • equity

The decision to consider this panel of firms comes from the availability of data related to years from 2008 to 2010, i.e. only companies with data available for all the three years were taken into account. Clearly, this implies the chosen panel to be not entirely a representative sample of the universe of companies operating in the field of logistics, and some results (e.g. changes occurred in the three year period) may not be significant given the small number of analyzed firms. For instance, the structure of the panel underestimate freight forwarders and carriers (respectively 0,9% and 3,3% of the panel). Beyond the characteristics of the panel of firms follows are some tables of the changes

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recorded in the transition between 2008 and 2009 and between 2009 and 2010. In summary also shows the comparison between the situation pre-crisis (2008) and the last available year (2010). The main figures related to the panel are summarized in the charts below.

Companies by activity sector

Corrieri / Operatore Servizi logistico postali 6,1% Gestione 0,9% magazzini 3,3% Autotrasp. 7,5% Spedizion. / MTO Trasporto 74,5% marittimo 7,7%

Companies by number of employees

Oltre 20 dip. 15,2%

Da 11 a 20 Fino a 5 dip. dip. 44,1% 13,6%

Da 6 a 10 dip. 27,1%

Companies by turnover class (year 2010)

Oltre 5 Meno di 500 milioni euro mila 20,7% 21,7%

500 mila - 1 mlione euro 2-5 milioni 10,4% euro 20,8%

1-2 milioni euro 26,4%

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8.2.2.1 Economic results The added value of this analysis lies in the fact the progress of a panel of companies over the past three years can be observed, comparing the operating results of the last period with the period preceding the crisis. It is therefore meaningful to consider the overall result of the panel, highlighting the strong contractions that companies registered in all economic variables in the transition from 2008 to 2009. The year 2010 was a year of partial recovery, but the gap with respect to the pre-crisis period does not seem to have been completely filled.

The turnover in 2010 increased 16% over the previous year, but the recovery of the last year have failed to completely fill the downturn of 2009, where there was a decrease of more than 20%. Overall, compared to pre-crisis period, the revenues were down 9%, with a more pronounced decrease in the activities of freight forwarders (-13%). Similarly is the trend of changes in the costs of production, with a sharp contraction in 2009 (-21%) and a recovery the next year (+14,6%), a gap that still is above 9 percentage points.

Business logistics is characterized by a reduction of outsourcing: over the last two years there was a decrease of 9%, equally split between 2009 (-4,4%) and 2010 (-5%). The shipping activities suffered the most pronounced decrease (-41%), whilst freight forwarders and carriers were characterized by a fall slightly above the average reference (respectively -12,2% and -10,1%) .

The expenditures for personnel grew in 2010 of about 3,7%, due to an increase in employed workers (+3,3%), especially for the activities of freight forwarders and maritime transport operators (+3,2% and +8.3% respectively). The 2009, however, was characterized by a personnel reduction (-6,3%), although this downsizing lead to a total savings of just over one percentage point. A comparison with the pre-crisis period evidenced however an increase in costs (+2,3%) despite the decrease in the number of employees (-3,2%). This dynamic reveals the increasingly difficulty important of recruiting new staff, since the related costs are always higher and increasingly affect the accounting of the companies.

A significant aspect that emerges from this panel of firms is the reduction of their profitability. If also the revenue reduction is taken into account, a complete and concise situation of the difficulties of the companies analyzed can be drawn, although the panel does not represent the entire universe of logistics providers in Veneto. In detail, the added value suffered, compared to the pre-crisis period, a decrease of about three percentage points, due to the significant downsizing in 2009 (-9,2%). The 2010 showed a recovery trend (+7,2%) with road transport activities, however, still in trouble. The significant reduction in profits (-47% in 2009 and -19% in 2010) determined an more than halved amount produced compared to the pre-crisis period (-57%).

A negative trend is also evident with reference to the corporate liquidity: after the considerable decrease in cash flow in 2009 (-22,2%), in 2010 there was a smaller decrease of resources (-4,4%) for an overall reduction of about 25,6% (more than one quarter), with the activities of freight forwarders and maritime operators with contractions above the average (-39,4% and -55,7% respectively).

The overall activities are positive (+4,3% compared to 2008) and also the equity remained substantially constant (+0,9%); the crisis, therefore, did not affect the equity and the difficulties could be ascribed to an existing problem of low profitability. Despite the recovery in 2010, which partly

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compensates for the heavy losses of 2009, an increase in costs and a gradual lowering of profits has been observed: in practice, companies continue to work, but at lower prices.

Sales revenues – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport 7,4% 0,1% 7,5% Parcels/couriers 2,7% -2,1% 0,5% Warehousing 21,3% -5,4% 14,8% Logistics operators 18,1% -9,4% 7,0% Freight forwarders/MTO 18,3% -26,4% -12,9% Maritime transport 0,7% -29,5% -29,0% Total 16,0% -21,6% -9,1%

Production costs – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport 6,4% 0,7% 7,1% Parcels/couriers 1,6% -4,4% -2,8% Warehousing 20,9% -6,2% 13,4% Logistics operators 15,8% -10,6% 3,6% Freight forwarders/MTO 16,8% -25,3% -12,8% Maritime transport 0,5% -26,9% -26,5% Total 14,6% -20,8% -9,3%

Third-party assets usage – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -32,6% 30,2% -12,2% Parcels/couriers 4,6% -2,9% 1,6% Warehousing -1,1% -9,4% -10,3% Logistics operators 6,5% -1,0% 5,4% Freight forwarders/MTO -2,9% -7,4% -10,1% Maritime transport -8,1% -35,8% -41,0% Total -5,0% -4,4% -9,1%

Personnel costs – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -12,2% -1,7% -13,8% Parcels/couriers -2,2% 16,2% 13,6% Warehousing 31,6% -2,2% 28,7% Logistics operators 12,1% -5,5% 6,0% Freight forwarders/MTO 0,9% -1,8% -0,9% Maritime transport 2,9% -1,4% 1,5%

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Total 3,7% -1,3% 2,3%

Employees – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -19,4% 2,2% -17,6% Parcels/couriers -5,1% 18,2% 12,1% Warehousing 61,6% -15,7% 36,2% Logistics operators -27,3% -2,2% -28,9% Freight forwarders/MTO 3,2% -10,8% -7,9% Maritime transport 8,3% -15,2% -8,1% Total 3,3% -6,3% -3,2%

Generated value added – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -12,1% 2,1% -10,3% Parcels/couriers 6,8% 31,6% 40,5% Warehousing 30,5% -3,4% 26,0% Logistics operators 20,3% 4,8% 26,0% Freight forwarders/MTO 6,4% -14,8% -9,3% Maritime transport 3,6% -24,6% -21,9% Total 7,2% -9,2% -2,7%

Net profit – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -37,5% -179,7% -149,8% Parcels/couriers 57,4% 240,7% 436,3% Warehousing -111,0% 165,9% -129,3% Logistics operators -158,4% 105,0% -219,8% Freight forwarders/MTO -44,8% -48,8% -71,7% Maritime transport 26,1% -68,7% -60,5% Total -18,9% -46,9% -57,0%

Earning before interest and taxes –% variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -20,4% 60,3% 27,5% Parcels/couriers 46,5% 209,7% 353,6% Warehousing 11,4% -25,7% -17,2% Logistics operators 140,0% 130,0% 452,1% Freight forwarders/MTO 26,3% -49,8% -36,6% Maritime transport 12,2% -62,3% -57,7% Total 25,5% -42,0% -27,2%

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Return on investment (ROI) – average %

2010 2009 2008

Road transport 13,0 2,5 11,0 Parcels/couriers -8,5 1,4 3,6 Warehousing 5,4 7,9 9,2 Logistics operators 8,2 14,9 1,0 Freight forwarders/MTO 10,6 6,5 9,4 Maritime transport 3,7 8,5 12,0 Total 9,8 6,8 9,1

Cash flows – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport -1,5% 201,0% 196,6% Parcels/couriers 37,6% 113,6% 194,0% Warehousing -6,2% 8,7% 2,0% Logistics operators 174,0% 2,8% 181,8% Freight forwarders/MTO -16,5% -27,5% -39,4% Maritime transport 12,5% -60,6% -55,7% Total -4,4% -22,2% -25,6%

Total activities – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport 4,2% 1,8% 6,0% Parcels/couriers -0,2% 19,0% 18,8% Warehousing 17,7% 7,5% 26,5% Logistics operators 9,6% 1,5% 11,3% Freight forwarders/MTO 9,7% -7,6% 1,3% Maritime transport 9,8% -4,3% 5,1% Total 9,1% -4,4% 4,3%

Net worth – % variations

‘ 09 / ‘ 10 ‘ 08 / ‘ 09 ‘ 08 / ‘ 10

Road transport 1,8% 2,7% 4,6% Parcels/couriers 17,6% 20,6% 41,9% Warehousing 2,7% 14,3% 17,4% Logistics operators 53,6% 3,8% 59,4% Freight forwarders/MTO -0,7% -1,6% -2,3% Maritime transport 0,6% -5,4% -4,8% Total 1,6% -0,7% 0,9%

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9 Swot analysis The main findings of the research can be summarized in a SWOT analysis, disaggregated by reference to port and dryports regional system, in order to identify the main areas towards the policy actions recommended in the next chapter.

Consistently, two diagrams are reported below, synthesizing respectively the SWOT analyzes related to the port of Venice (Figure 74) and to the system of regional freight villages (Figure 75).

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

- foundation in 2010 by 5 Northern Adriatic ports (Ravenna, Venice, - lack of Ro-Ro active links from Venice to other Italian ports, after Trieste, Koper and Rijeka) of the North-Adriatic Ports Association the cancellation of the weekly service provided by the Venice- (NAPA), which allows lobbying towards institutions and operators Catania Adriatic Navigation (now Tirrenia). and performing common marketing actions - strong internal competition between the ports of NAPA, such as on port dutis and development projects, and a fundamental - functional specialization of ports due to very heterogeneous weakness with respect to Tyrrhenian and Northern Range ports as a infrastructural characteristics of the NAPA ports result of a strong infrastructural inefficiency and lack of competitiveness of inland services. - Ro-Ro and Ro-Pax market segments particularly active in the port - presence of infrastructural shortcomings in the rail node of of Venice, albeit with considerable variations in supply over the last Mestre. Most of the regional rail capacity is assigned to passenger year. services - presence of a direct rail link with the main national and - infrastructure of the ports of Venice and Ravenna cannot international rail networks to/from all NAPA ports, albeit with accommodate container services provided by large ships different characteristics and potential. - lack of sufficient critical mass for services on the Asia-North - creation by the Port Authority of Venice of a special purpose entity Adriatic route , with the consequent need for more calls and higher (Venice Logistics) to facilitate and promote land connections. operating speeds in order to ensure adequate transit time. - the presence of an established network of weekly feeder services INTERNALFACTOR - NAPA ports recognized as excellent examples in various fields of is in direct competition with the possibility of development of new maritime transport, e.g. looking at their international ranking. direct services to the Far East. - the management of Vecon terminal at the port of Venice is very - increasing competition with Ro-Ro and Ro-Pax services in the port effective in terms of organization of road access, customs and of Trieste, which is very active in the market after the the loss of phytosanitary services, technical-nautical services. It has also Anek Lines routes in 2005 in favor of Venice for problems of invested in refrigerated warehouses inadequate ground facilities. - NAPA's international connections mainly guaranteed by the eastern part of the cluster (Trieste, Koper and Rijeka), while the ports of Venice and Ravenna have a predominantly national basin. - use by the shipping companies of ships of average size, in order to - possible reduction in demand towards relevant markets served by offer profitable routes along main trade routes (cascade effect) Venice due to the political instability in North Africa. - market trend of the container customers leaving partially the - possible congestion of road and rail networks if the off-shore vision oriented to the minimization of the transit time terminal were realized - opportunity for shipping companies to increase the average size of - risk of loss of "rich" container traffic from the port of Venice, vessels employed, and to restructure routes and services in because an increase of feeder services would increase overall response to changes in external conditions (eg. fuel costs, transit times to final customers emissions charges). - promotion of rail supply through incentives, thereby making

sustainable short-range connections between port and inland ports EXTERNALFACTOR in the region.

Figure 74 – SWOT analysis: port of Venice

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POSITIVE NEGATIVE - Main destination served by Padova are port terminal containers, - growth rates of ​​warehouses buinding in the Veneto area lower than in therefore the maritime intermodal rail segment is prevailing. Verona other regions of Northern Italy. has a prominent role in continental intermodal rail

- strong expansion of Padova Interporto towards creating more stable - lack of definition of the processes of functional integration of the and effective connections with the ports of NAPA. regional dryports within the regional territory

- difficulties arising from a lack of planning in the sector on a regional - international recognition of the centrality of Verona QE on intermodal scale, with the proliferation of investments in property and construction traffic and quality of infrastructure and services. of logistics infrastructure in the vicinity of the dryports

- not insignificant role played by traditional rail traffic for both Verona - low demand capturable by purely national rail services, i.e. not related QE and Padova to port traffic, due to the structure of the Veneto regional trade.

- the strong position of Verona as main hub of the Southern European - shortage or even absence of a strategic planning of new intermodal intermodal network is currently not contestable by other terminals in terminals, which often are built close to existing dryports without an the Veneto Region. overall plan of freight rationalization. - about 30/35 thousand jobs a year in the Veneto region related to the - on average, enterprises manage very small warehouses INTERNALFACTOR field of freight and logistics, of which one quarter permanent - concentration of main international origins/destinations of freight - road transport is increasingly competitive, despite the increase of fuel relevant for Veneto to/from EU countries, with Germany being one of prices, and the competition with rail is very strong the main partners.

- companies face internal difficulties and issues, still more significant rather than infrastructural issues - 7-axes trucks carrying iron and steel without being classified as oversize loads are becoming very strong competitors of a traditionally rail captive market segment - companies do not perceive dryports as attractive as they are

- possibility of creating "logistics parks" or "freight villages" in order to - very negative impacts of the RFI policy of dismissing most of the rationalize investments, consume less land, choose the most favorable private rail connections between companies and the national rail locations in terms of accessibility, reduce operating costs of auxiliary network services and energy through construction of modern buildings.

- great perspectives of growth in the international market, with a domain of foreign operators along the central European routes which - economic downturn still takes place, trade volumes are below those tends to move the centre of traffics northbound, marginalizing the role observed in 2007 of the freight villages south of Verona.

- construction of warehouses with no interaction with the major regional - opportunity for intermodal logistics platform to look at the ports, not and national transport infrastructures, due to the policy of the only because potential generators of intermodal traffic, but also for a municipalities to allow warehouses building not for logistical needs but possible role of dryports for cash needs.

- possibility of incentives towards rail "traditional" freight, following similar initiatives by other regions, like Emilia Romagna, on the - remarkable presence of low-cost logistics real estate. combined transport. - possible unexpected competition from multinational logistics that - strong potential for growth in the area of Rovigo. have spaces available and put them on the market. - creation in areas of interest of dryports of dangerous situations of - necessity of enhancing rail infrastructures and services between the duplication, with negative consequences for the profitability of past and port of Venice and Padua and Verona freight villages future investments. - negative consequences due to the closure of the Brenner Pass on - large demand increase in flows to Eastern Europe for 2020, with a slight different days of the week during the summer months, with the risk that EXTERNALFACTOR shift in trade balance with respect to the current pattern many customers return to use of pure road.

- possible threat to the position of Verona as a main hub of southern - potential competition from a transport point of view between Padua European intermodal network represented by the development of the and Rovigo also due to the partial overlap of their catchment areas freight village of Trento

- the traffic pattern of empty containers might represent an opportunity - competition in the real estate logistics sector between Padova and of further growth for regional dryports Rovigo

- Increasing rail network congestion in Padova and Mestre due to the planned increase of passenger services

- negative market trend by enterprises in the freight and logistics sectors

- possible fall in profitability in the real estate logistics sector.

Figure 75 – SWOT analysis: regional dryports

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10 Policy actions suggested to Veneto Region

10.1 Enterprises and market labour in the freight and logistics sectors Evaluations by Veneto Congiuntura published in early April 2012 related to the freight, warehousing and logistics industries, lead to a "basically stable turnover in the fourth quarter of 2011, with a recorded variation of -0.3%", but expectations from entrepreneurs are substantially negative with reference to both the business volume and the employment.

Interviews conducted with relevant stakeholders and opinion leaders pointed out, however, another aspect which represents the real critical point of this period of crisis: the fall in profitability. The subjective judgments by the operators are clearly confirmed by the analysis of approximately 230 accounts of relevant enterprises located in Veneto for the years 2008-2010. The reduction in net income is impressive: over 50%.

This result should be carefully taken into account, even if the analyzed sample is not statistically significant. Notably, the analysis of financial accounts and of the health of companies is not a widespread practice in the world of transport research. The great emphasis on infrastructure makes usually forget that the system is based entirely on business: in other words, an infrastructural improvement will never be able to make efficient and competitive a company which currently is not such. In addition, some 82% of transport, logistics and warehousing companies registered at the Chambers of Commerce within Veneto does not exceed 5 employees and some 55% does not exceed 1 employee. This means that they represent an universe in which the standalone working has a significant presence, and the classification as an "enterprise" is not proper. In other words, it is impossible thinking of a policy impacting effectively at the same time on a company with 100 employees and on a single-employed company (i.e. autonomous work). In addition, most of the aforementioned 55% of individual workers improperly classified as enterprises is likely a basic supplier (e.g. transport by truck), of the 10% of firms with more than 100 employees. This means that they are two opposite universes on relevant questions, e.g. the minimal safety costs.

Moving forward, employment data disasggregated by category provided by Veneto Lavoro – represent the entire universe of employees in the region – clearly indicate that the freight and logistics sector absorbs a very little qualified workforce: intellectual and technical professions do not reach the share of 3%. On the contrary, 57% of the workforce (accounting for both employees and quasi-employees) is made up by porters and drivers, and the remaining cover executive and office- related duties that do not require even a bachelor.

Therefore, the first suggested action is to revise completely the criteria on which training policies are designed. Notably, they should be entirely devoted to those who already work - given also the current scarcity of resources – rather than to those who should still enter the labour market. Freight and logistics are the typical fields of "implicit knowledge", of the knowing by doing, meaning that the best preparation by schools and universities will never be able to prevent the new employee to fall into the road of the "now you have to learn everything”. Furthermore, the training contents should be imposed not from outside the industry, on the contrary they should meet the requirements of the relevant enterprises, which are the only able to judge what is needed. A substantial revision of the flexibility and of the certifications underlying the training processes should be performed as well.

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For this aim, it is preferable to provide the company with vouchers in order to attend highly specialized training courses, which may have high costs for non-members, offered by associations such as AILOG or other professional associations.

10.2 Optimization and sustainability of road transport Interviews and investigations carried out during the project lead to the conclusion that a substantial difference in behavior and perspectives is observed between those who (directly or indirectly) interact with public infrastructures (ports, ports, railways) and those who operate privately in the national and international markets.

In the first case, suggestions or improvement actions are usually discussed/proposed to the public bodies, whilst in the second case the public bodies are perceived as an obstacle which should be avoided in order to optimize the business. This reveals a remarkable political issue, which goes outside the scopes of this research and is of an higher level with respect to the pure freight and logistics sectors. It is however useful reflecting on the fact that infrastructural policies neither solve the problems that companies face every day, especially during periods of crisis, nor overcome the issues of transport efficiency, which are caused in particular by logistic patterns strongly oriented to distribution, i.e. with primary importance towards level of service rather than to load factors.

Coercive actions aiming at increase the efficiency of transport means are highly unlikely to be implemented, therefore proper incentives should be studied in order to increase the average load factor being equal the quantities transported. In Germany the effort towards an increase of the load factor was primarily adopted in the industrial logistics, so as to increase the efficiency of the means and thereby reduce congestion, but it is becoming little by little more important in distribution logistics, so as to achieve a significant emissions reduction. As a result, the reputation of the logistics companies is increasingly measured on their commitment towards factors of quality and environmental sustainability: in that respect, it is interesting to look just at the presentations at the conferences of the main German logistics conferences. During the research, the logistics manager of the Gruppo PAM has also documented a good practice of environmental sustainability strategies in the Veneto area, applied to logistics for the quality of the lorry fleet, to the use of eco-friendly fuels, to the CO2 reduction and to the adoption of reusable boxes and containers. The region could begin to establish a "quality mark" for companies that have started working along this path, promoting at the same time some meetings and workshops with relevant companies in order to look closely at how they deal with these issues.

Notably, despite the increase in fuel prices, road transport still exhibits substantial margins of growth because its potential catchment area increased substantially after the EU enlargement towards Eastern countries, and logistics companies are amongst the first to capture new business opportunities. By way of an example, Verona is an area wherein companies from Germany, Austria and Scandinavia have been active as if it were a domestic market for them. As a consequence, the most successful companies in Veneto are those who followed and helped their clients in their offshoring process towards China, Russia or other Eastern countries. However, the vast majority of surveyed companies during the TRANSITECTS research reported to have a mostly local market, therefore subject to an increasing competition which will be played in the fields of both new assets and more competitive labour contracts.

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10.3 Rail freight transport perspectives Rail transport is not a panacea for the regional freight sector, rather it should be regarded as another segment of the transport market, who needs structure and capacity in order to be more effective rather than the road transport.

Significant problems and issues were analyzed during the TRANSITECTS research. For instance, iron and steel are largely traded by rail, e.g. they represent the greatest share of rail traffic in the port of Venice, with about 40/43 trains per week. Unfortunately, there are contemporarily today 7-axis lorries operating in Veneto, which should be considered as oversize loads, but they circulate now without limitations and therefore they represent a formidable competitor of the train. In this case, authorities should be urgently devoted to adopt controls in order to prevent large rail-oriented trade to switch towards road, resulting in a re-localization of new steel factories away from the rail infrastructure in the medium and long run.

So far attention has been devoted almost exclusively to intermodal traffic because of the importance of intermodal terminals in Padua and Verona. In fact, interest should instead be focused on traditional rail transport for two main reasons:

• companies located in many areas of the Veneto and dealing with raw materials and bulk goods, and therefore they are either already major users or potential future customers of rail services;

• the policy of RFI (Italian Rail Network Management Company) of dismissing and closing most of the private connections to/from the national rail network may prevent future development of traditional rail transport.

Therefore, a policy proposal is to establish a permanent table between RFI and Veneto Region, also involving possibly the relevant manufacturers, with the aim of establishing and enlarging the presence of private connections to the national rail network. Indeed, in many cases, the municipalities leave open stations and ticket offices that Trenitalia would have otherwise closed. Intermodal traffic terminals operate if they have efficient and specialized terminals able to handle different types of traffics (containers, swap bodies, trailers, rolling highway), whilst traditional rail traffic needs direct connections between companies and the national rail network.

Notably, Trenitalia Cargo (the incumbent state-owned freight rail operator) underlines that in Veneto the potential of traditional rail traffic is larger than that of the intermodal traffic. The closure of the Brenner Pass on different days of the week during the summer will have negative consequences, many customers are likely to switch to pure road freight, and also the combined transport companies, in order not to lose customers, are planning to offer a truck service in replacement of the rail services. The international trains to Verona and Padua will be forced to use the Tarvisio pass, a modern line on the Italian side, but with significant shortcomings in Austria.

Recovering, implementing, enriching the existing connections in the Veneto, in contexts where they serve relevant production units, is a necessary requirement to prevent further relocations, closures or further heavy truck traffic on the roads of the region. Some findings from the TRANSITECTS project refers to: a) an hub for iron/steel in the area of Verona serving the triangle

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between Brescia, Mantova and Reggio Emilia, b) the specialization of the Domegliara terminal for the marble traffic c) the establishment of a polycentric network of terminals and storage facilities in order to serve various districts within the provinces of Vicenza and Treviso.

Trenitalia, in the context of its rationalization process parallel to RFI, is trying to focus the iron/steel traffic in the Legnago terminal, but some smaller hubs handling specialized product categories, such as cellulose or metallurgy, could bring many advantages if located in strategic positions. Relevant areas of potential rail freight traffic were pointed out by various subjects interviewed during the research, namely Montebello, the area of Schio, Cavanella Po, Badia Polesine, the Transpolesana stretch between the highway from Vicenza to the junction with the PD-BO. Therefore, there is no need for large terminals, just two tracks and a crane may be useful to concentrate traffics of interesting operators that are growing rapidly (Cereal Docks is a remarkable example).

However, intermodal rail traffic remains a market of great importance. Notably, although it is essentially a transport performed by rail, the initial and final road legs between the warehouse or factory and the terminal impact heavily on the efficiency and the profitability of the entire chain. In that respect, the location of the terminal becomes a crucial factor, being the distance from the centre of its reference catchment area a crucial factor in defining the daily number of possible pickup and deliveries and therefore its profitability. Unfortunately, catchment areas are likely to move over the years, e.g. the main basin of origin/destination container traffic, according to a major player, moved in Veneto region from the area between Padua and Vicenza towards east of Mestre. Notably, this shift (not definitive) may favor the development of the port of Venice, provided that new adequate shipping services may increase its competitiveness against the Northern Tyrrhenian ports.

In this sense, the current strategies of the shipping companies and the development projects stated by the NAPA port authorities in the short and medium term seem to foster the eastern part of the NAPA (Trieste, Koper, Rijeka) rather than Venice and Ravenna. By way of an example, it is worth remembering that Venice does not have any direct container services to/from the Far East, available instead to/from all three ports of the east bank of NAPA.

The positive experiences carried out by other regions, such as Emilia Romagna, in the context of establishing incentives to combined rail transport might be extended in the Veneto region for traditional rail transport. The Veneto region, therefore, may choose to follow that direction, accounting also for the results of different experiences of incentives adopted at regional and national levels (ferrobonus, LR Emilia-Romagna, Campania incentives). In that respect, two main types of actions can be put in force:

• to develop a system of incentives that involves the entire field of regional rail freight, i.e. based on the conceptual model of the so-called ferrobonus or the regional law no. 15/2009 by Emilia Romagna;

• to define a measure of ad hoc incentives for a specific service, as done by Campania Region for an high frequency combined road-rail service between the container terminal at the Port of Naples and the Freight Village of Nola.

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In both cases, Veneto Region will be required to notify the incentive to the European Commission, in order to obtain a compatibility declaration with the provisions of the European Treaty (Articles 87 and 88) regarding financial aid. Although there are previous favorable outcomes for both cases, the case of a general regional incentive is simpler and more straightforwardly acceptable by the EU. In the case of ad hoc aid, instead, the documentation to be produced, the duration and the outcome of the procedure will be more cumbersome and less obvious in its results. However, in the case of an ad hoc aid, adequate resources will be more effectively focused on strategic services, with a likely higher impact. Details on actions related to both types of incentives are given in the Annex to this Report.

10.4 Infrastructures and coordination in the regional freight system Another fundamental policy issue is the coordination of the catchment areas and of the operations of large freight and logistics infrastructures, e.g. ports and dryports.

In that respect, the position of Verona as a main hub of the South European intermodal network is not currently contended by other terminals in the Veneto region, even if a possible threat may come from the consolidation of the operations in Trento, located in a favorable position to intercept some of the relevant freight flows to/from Verona.

The difficulties arising from a lack of planning and governance in the sector on a regional scale are still remarkable, with the proliferation of real estate logistics investments close to the main regional freight villages and dryports. Veneto Region might importantly assess new building constructions within an overall design that would enhance the existing infrastructure and would avoid duplications.

In the absence of specific regulations allowing Regions to perform an overall regional planning design also in contrast with the decisions of single municipalities, the establishment of formal guidelines for the implementation of new freight and logistics infrastructures would be recommendable. Real estate specialists contacted during the TRANSITECTS study stressed the severe difficulties faced by investors who need to deal with the heterogeneous regulations by municipalities and by fire brigades during the overall authorization process, which may vary substantially across provinces leading to a subjectivity that creates uncertainties in the investors. In particular, foreign investors find it difficult to understand this lack of uniformity of standards and the wide autonomy left to local administrators. In many cases, this uncertainty makes it impossible to draw up a business plan.

All surveyed operators expressed interest towards the area of Rovigo, which is now exhibiting the greatest potential for a future growth. This may partly cause a partial overlapping with the business of the Interporto di Padova, however limited to the real estate logistics sector since the catchment area of the intermodal maritime traffic is entirely concentrated northbound of the Milano-Venezia motorway. With the same argumentation, the intention of the port of Venice to expand its area of influence in the Mira area through building specific custom warehouses would not impact on the business of the Interporto di Padova as a main hub of maritime container traffic.

The question of the planned offshore container terminal in Venice has been touched several times during the interviews with relevant stakeholders and opinion leaders. In general, a certain skepticism emerged about its technical and economic feasibility, while it was recognized the President of the Port Authority to have great communication and marketing capacities rewarded with successes in 2010 and 2011. Unfortunately, the new trends in container shipping, with the restructuring of many

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services and the increase in fuel prices have changed the strategy of the shipping companies that started calling Venice with direct services. Today, the port of Trieste emerges with a role of regional hub and has increased its container traffic by some 40% thanks to the transshipment calls of large vessels, in conjunction with feeder services to/from other NAPA ports. As a consequence, Venice become again a “secondary” container port, also served by feeder ships via Trieste, with a likely increase of the overall transit times to final customers up to two weeks. In terms of traffics, this means losing those customers who are committed with low transit times, usually related to “rich” goods to be received or to be exported.

Venice, like other northern Adriatic ports (e.g. Trieste, Koper) suffers from a strong trade imbalance and therefore has a high percentage of empty containers to handle. The service is offered by several specific operators in the region, particularly by the terminal of Messina, a shipowner from Genova who controls important north-south routes to/from West Africa and South America. The interview with the head of the Messina terminal in Vicenza revealed some peculiarities of the container intermodal market, and in particular the already mentioned movement of the centre of the catchment area of the relevant container traffic towards east.

In theory, this could help in the future the port of Venice, which already has the Vecon terminal with enough space and a dynamic management of the crane renovation process. The interview with the head of the terminal highlighted some relevant steps made by Paolo Costa (President of the Port Authority) with reference to the refurbishment of the road accesses, to the customs and sanitary services, and to the technical-nautical services. Similar remarks came from conversations with the President of the regional branch of Fedespedi, who is also a port operator managing refrigerated warehouses.

Therefore, the possibility that the port of Venice will become once again attractive to shipping lines, once overcome the current phase of freight rates falling and heavy losses, should not be underestimated, despite the realization of the offshore container terminal.

In line with such perspectives, some critical issues in terms of railway infrastructure must be kept under control, with specific reference to the node of Mestre, a necessary crossing point for all rail traffic to/from the port.

The role of rail services will become crucial in order to enhance the competitiveness of the container traffic in the near future. A possible expansion of the catchment area of the port of Venice, now a substantially local port with customers located more or less within 150 km (i.e. a distance that is not convenient for establishing rail services), would necessarily mean looking beyond the Alps. In turn, since all relevant stakeholders and opinion leaders point out that the future of North Adriatic ports is played over the Alps, an efficient rail service becomes a necessary condition.

In the meanwhile, pending the final decision about the planned offshore terminal, the port of Venice will continue to be characterized by non-containerized general cargo trades, bulk cargo, project cargo and heavy lift, for which it already occupies a prominent position in Italy and partly in Europe.

Consistently, this position of excellence requires proper strengthening and consolidating actions towards the enhancement of the efficacy and of the effectiveness of the traditional rail traffic.

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Another area in which the port of Venice is destined to play an important role is that of infra- Mediterranean Ro-Ro traffic, which however impact on road traffic from the inland standpoint. For this segment, Venice has captured a significant market share in the past thanks to operational difficulties at the port of Trieste. However, Trieste reorganized its business and now envisages significant perspectives of development and substantial growth, thanks to the consolidation of routes to Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean and to the massive use of railway for inland forwarding of semitrailers. On the other hand, Venice suffered from the suspension of the shipping lines towards Egypt and Syria, partly because of bureaucratic and market difficulties. In that respect, the Veneto region which could act as facilitator amongst stakeholders.

The motorway network in the Veneto region is already affected by crossing Ro-Ro traffic from the port of Trieste. This means that, under the scenario of completion of the offshore terminal, the port of Venice would become also an important node in container traffic in the Adriatic, with a critical increase of the road traffic in the areas of Venice, Padua and Mestre and betwee Mestre and Friuli- Venezia Giulia.

Implementing structural solutions for railway infrastructure and services between the port of Venice and the freight villages of Padova and Verona. In that respect, a key role should be played by the promotion through rail supply incentives, so as to have financially sustainable short-range connections between port and inland ports in the region. In this sense, the brevity of the distances requires that a simple provision of incentives should be accompanied by strong actions of coordination and integration along the overall transport chain, involving together railway and container termnal operations. Furthermore, the sustainability of such service could be achieved only by a proper balance between import and export trades.

The situation of the rail network could become critical in both nodes of Mestre and Padova, where a high frequency regional passengers service is planned for the incoming years. However, since the perspectives of implementation of the off-shore terminal lie in the medium term, it would be advisable that the table between RFI and the Region would address also such railway infrastructural problems.

Finally, a task force involving Prefectures, Autostrade Venete and other stakeholders should be established in order to address in a coordinated manner “the Brenner emergency”, which is likely to impact very negatively this summer on both freight and touristic flows.

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Annex: details about the incentives to rail freight transport The three major case studies of rail incentives (the so-called ferrobonus, the Emilia-Romagna regional law, the rail shuttle Napoli-Nola) are analyzed and summarized below, in order to support the actions described above for the TRANSITECTS project.

A.1 Characteristics of the incentives

A.1.1 Ferrobonus The peculiarities of the mechanism of the so-called ferrobonus can be summarized as follows:

• the beneficiaries are the final users of services provided by railway companies, i.e. those who purchase the complete train (shippers, carriers, freight forwarders, multimodal transport operators);

• amongst the main conditions to be ensured by the beneficiary, a minimum number of trains for a given period should be guaranteed;

• the entity of the contribution is established in a theoretical maximum of 2 € per train kilometer, but in practice it has been recognized to be reduced to almost a quarter of the such maximum;

• there is the possibility of a further incentive related to a documented increase compared to 2009, if residual financial resources are available;

• the overall incentive, including any additional contributions (by EU, national states, regional bodies) cannot exceed 30% of the cost of the service.

The elements that characterize this system of incentives are essentially two:

• on the one hand, the extreme ease of application and, in general, the simplicity of the documentation to be produced by the receiver of the incentive;

• on the other hand, the total lack of discriminating elements aimed at identifying priorities in relation to the services to be funded, unless the commitment to achieve a certain number of trains and to promote some specificities of the train services.

A.1.2 LR 15/2009 by Emilia-Romagna Region The key points of the system of incentives provided by Emilia-Romagna Region are the following:

• direct beneficiaries of the incentives are the relevant operators (i.e. who organize the transport) and the railway operators, both obliged to discount the amount of the contribution to end-users, i.e. shippers and industrial enterprises that are the indirect beneficiaries of the incentives;

• additional traffic will be encouraged, i.e. both new trains/new routes or upgrading of existing services provided that origin and/or destination are based in a regional terminal. The services should be necessarily complete train services, both intermodal and conventional.

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The contribution is defined by the difference in external costs between road and rail as calculated by the European Marco Polo program, reduced by 50%, i.e. € 0.01/tons/km for the first year and only for the actual tonnage of goods transported. The usage of the €/tons/km parameter encourages achieving a greater saturation of the train. The incentive is decreasing across the 3 years period of funding, so as to ensure the approach towards the market price once the incentive ends. Even in this case the total contribution, consistent with the EU requirements, shall not exceed 30% of the cost of the service. Furthermore, on the route covered by the regional contribution (up to 120 km), the incentive shall not be combined with any other contributions (EU, national or regional).

In this case, the system of incentives responds to clearly defined specific objectives and also identifies some clear strategies that are used to rank funded services. In fact, unlike ferrobonus in which the total amount of the contribution is shared between all eligible services, the contribution to be paid is well defined in unit terms and is provided till it finishes following a scrolling list. In other words, not all eligible services necessarily fall between those funded.

The overall objectives pursued by such system of incentives are:

• rebalancing the freight transport system by developing the intermodal and traditional rail market;

• reducing the environmental pollution and increasing traffic safety.

Within this context, the identified specific objectives are:

• to stimulate growth, encouraging additional rail traffic with respect to previous years, which likely remains in operation even after the cessation of the incentives;

• to promote short and medium range connections that have origin and/or destination in a regional node and serve either intraregional or interregional links with neighboring regions;

• to enrich connections to/from ports as strategic issues for the development of regional nodes, and also able to express enough critical mass for rail growth, giving priority to links with the ports that are hampered by bottlenecks or infrastructure constraints;

• to encourage both the intermodal and traditional rail traffics, as both functional to the vocations of the regional production system;

• to promote complete trains as the most effective functional model to build a sustainable traffic.

Consistent with such strategic framework, 10 priority criteria have been defined for the composition of the list, including quality, completeness, credibility and sustainability of the service over the time, and of course, the compatibility with the aforementioned objectives. The characteristic elements of the incentive system of Emilia-Romagna are:

• the application and, in general, the documentation to be produced by the recipient is rather complex;

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• the procedure for the selection of services to be financed allows focusing resources on the types of services that are strategically most important;

• linking the incentive to the tonnage of goods actually transported allows funding services having a higher probability of being able to survive in the market even once the scheme. This formula, however, is disadvantageous if the incentive is meant to support start-up of new services, for which demand is expected to report a likely deficit in its first year. This problem is partially solved by giving a greater contribution during the first year and then adopting a gradual reduction in the subsequent years.

A.1.3 Combined transport service Napoli-Nola The case study in question is interesting because it represents one of the few examples of incentives granted to a specific service, therefore, outside of a system of incentives to the whole freight rail industry. Objective of the incentive was to promote the realization of a combined transport service between the Port of Napoli and Interporto Campano (Nola) in order to reduce road traffic. The funding scheme provided the grant for a start-up period of 3 years.

The project financed by the incentive was related to the design of a combined road-rail high frequency service related to the transport of containers, in both directions between the Container Terminal of the Port of Napoli and Interporto Campano (Nola). The proposed project fell within the regional initiatives to increase efficiency and safety of movement of goods across the region and to reduce at the same time, the environmental impact of such movements, reducing road congestion and pollution .

In particular, the service envisaged 10 weekly rail shuttles (2/day), which will serve also final customers through a road leg to/from Interporto Campano. The beneficiary of the measure was Interporto Campano SpA (Interport manager of Nola), acting as multimodal transport operator in the initiative.

The total financial incentive amounted to 1.322.000 €, equal to the difference between costs and revenues provided by the business plan in the first three years of operations32. The intensity of the aid was 18% on average, resulting from a decreasing scheme (31% in the first year, 23% in the second and 8% in the third). The amount of the incentive could not be increased under any circumstances, but smaller adjustments were possible in order to preserve a close relationship of proportionality between the costs of the service and contributions, in the case where the beneficiary was not able to realize the number of shuttles/year provided by the business plan.

Aspects of particular interest in this case study related both to the administrative procedure adopted by the Campania Region and to the questions posed by EU in terms of compatibility with the Comunitary laws.

The first act of the Campania Region was a DGR (no. 1609/07), which recognized the statement of Interporto Campano to be unable to sustain the cost of a high frequency train service to the Port of Naples. Once sent a business plan quantifying the magnitude of the contribution required for the start up period of the service, the consistency of the proposed service with the regional strategy for

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development of logistics and freight transport was checked, with specific reference to the integration between regional ports and dryports. Subsequently, the following steps were pursued:

• notify to the European Commission - DG Competition the contents of the regional resolution, in accordance with the provisions of the rules of the EC Treaty on incentives;

• prepare a draft of the overall agreement, conditioned to the acceptance by EU of the proposed incentives funding scheme.

Subsequently, the state aid procedure with the European Commission took place. The procedure lasted about nine months, starting from the notification the special electronic format by the Italian authorities and up to the compatibility decision issued by the Commission itself. In this period two information additions were required and a conclusive technical meeting was held. Thanks to those exchanges, the European Commission incorporated all information needed to fully define the characteristics of the service and, in particular, to check that the start-up incentive does not affect trading conditions to an extent contrary to the common interest.

In that respect, attention was focused on possible distortions of competition between operators, and especially among the nodes involved in the logistics service and their competitors. This implied analyzing in detail the competition between the beneficiary (Interporto Campano), and other logistics centers located in the area of influence of the service, that could be used potentially in place of the chosen beneficiary. Specifically, EU required proving that the incentive to a shuttle to/from the Port of Napoli would have not affected the port choice by shipping companies and freight forwarders for their import/export activities.

In addition, the documentation had to show the necessary, proportional, temporary and reductive nature of the proposed incentive, the economic and financial sustainability of the service once completed the start-up aid and also the assessment of the expected impacts (which, of course, must be commensurate with the allocated aid).

In summary, then, the salient characteristics of this case study are the following:

• the incentive is tailor made for an ad hoc service, with all the complications and the issues that arise in terms of constraints on competition and tendering;

• the contribution was much higher, in unit terms, compared to that provided with the ferrobonus or by Emilia Romagna. For instance, considering a load of 600 tons per train, the contribution by Campania amounted to nearly 0.10 €/ton/km in the first year, 0.08 €/ton/km the second year and 0.02 €/ton/km the third year. On the other hand, for a service with a very short path (34 miles), the handling costs in the initial and final nodes are a prominent part of the overall implementation cost, so it is not entirely correct to think of it in terms of ton/km.

A.2 Conclusions The three examined measures of incentives can be compared on the basis of three main elements:

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• administrative and procedural complexity that characterizes both the definition and the implementation phases;

• the underlying strategic focus;

• the amount of the incentive in terms of €/ton/km.

In particular, the following Figure 2 describes the relative positioning of the Italian incentives by strategic focus, administrative complexity and size of the contribution.

entitàentity of del the contributo incentive for each per measure ciascuna misura

focus Ferrobonus L.R. 15/09 ER

trategic trategic Napoli-Nola

focus strategicofocus

s

administrativecomplessità amministrativa and procedural e procedurale complexity

Figure 1 – relative positioning of the Italian incentives by strategic focus, administrative complexity and size of the contribution

Notably, amongst the considered measures the ferrobonus is certainly the one with the lowest degree of complexity and of administrative requirements, but it is also the least selective in terms of beneficiaries, being devoted to the entire rail freight industrial sector without any specific focus. Contemporarily, it is also the lowest in terms of magnitude of the contribution (unless an empty or an half-empty train is considered). In general terms, with reference to a train of 500-600 tons, the ferrobonus provides an incentive of less than 0.004 €/ton/km, while the LR of Emilia-Romagna provides 0.01 €/ton/km (but only for the actual tonnage of freight carried) and the shuttle Naples- Nola on average € 0.07 €/ton/km.

The incentives supplied by Emilia-Romagna and Campania are characterized by a higher inherent complexity, being the Napoli-Nola the most complex case mainly due the difficulty of proving that the incentive does not affect competition in a way contrasting with the common interest. For both examples the incentives are relatively well focused: Emilia-Romagna identifies a list of eligible services (both traditional and combined) whilst the case of Campania is absolutely tailor made for a specific service within the wider regional priority of achieving effective integration between ports and freight villages.

A.3 Ex post analysis

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This section provides an ex post analysis of the aforementioned incentives to rail transport in Italy. For the ferrobonus there is actually no monitoring. The only clear observed effect is the substantial reduction of the overall contribution from the claimed 2 €/train/km to less than 0.5 €/t/km.

Some monitoring data are instead available for the effects of the first and of the second call of the implementation of the LR 15/09 by Emilia-Romagna region. Apparently, results seem to be broadly encouraging: 2.1 million tons handled of additional rail traffic per year, compared with an hypothesis of 2.3 million tons. Overall, the two 2010 calls lead to the start-up of 35 financed services, for a total of 18 beneficiaries.

Finally, the Napoli-Nola shuttle, although being the initiative with the highest contribution in unitary terms, has been suspended after about a year and a half because of its economic losses. That result should not be surprising. In this case, in fact, the overall project of integration between the port and the dryport included:

• integration of last-mile traction (i.e. within the nodes) and main traction (i.e. between the nodes) in a single operating company (Ferport Napoli) owned jointly by the Port Authority, by Serfer and by Interporto di Nola;

• the already mentioned regional incentives for the start-up of a high frequency train service between port and inland port (1.3 M€ in three years);

• full integration of terminal operators in the Port of Napoli and in Interporto Campano, through the Memorandum of Understanding Na.PLES between the Region, the Port Authority of Napoli and Interporto Campano.

In that respect, just the train services and the related incentives were effectively put in force, whilst the other two points of the plan have not been implemented, leading to the failure of the overall initiative. In particular, disagreements in the management of Ferport Napoli, resulting in a significant increase in operating costs of and the failed integration of terminal operators between the port and the freight village, preventing using Nola as the main gate for the Port of Napoli. As a consequence, the shuttle service operated into a non-integrated environment involving just import flows, therefore completely unbalanced in the return trips towards the Port. Finally, some changes in the plans by the shipping companies did not justify the launch of the second daily shuttle.

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