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International VOLUME XIX // NUMBER 2 // FALL 2016 Affairs Security Cooperation | Political-Military Affairs | Intelligence the foreign area officer association journal of INTERNATIONAL VOLUME XIX // NUMBER 2 // FALL 2016 AFFAIRS WWW.FAOA.ORG IS RUSSIA THE GREATEST THREAT TO U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY? BG DAWNE DESKINS, USANG COL CHRIS HARRIS, USAF COL DON JOHNSON, USAF CAPT JON YOUNG, USN 12 | Socio-Cultural Challenges in Syria 38 | Indonesia’s New Maritime Strategy 17 | Western Foreign Fighter Recruitment in Syria 47 | Venice to Dakar INSIDE 22 | Chilean Strategy in Antarctica 49 | Negotiating with the Taliban 28 | U.S. Defense Attachés in Haiti | Cuba 54 | Challenges to European Security Policy 32 | U.S. Counterterrorism in Northwest Africa ISSN 1551-8094 FAOA BOARD OF GOVERNORS JOURNAL STAFF The Foreign Area Officer Association PRESIDENT Graham Plaster, LCDR USNR (FAOA) Journal of International Kurt Marisa, Col, USAF (ret.) Editor-in-Chief Affairs is the publication for Regional and International Affairs professionals VICE PRESIDENT John B. Haseman, COL USA (ret.) of the FAO Association, a 501c(19) Robert Timm, COL, USA Chairman, Editorial Board non-profit Veterans’ organization bringing together experts and praction- SECRETARY Craig Byrnes ers in the fields of intelligence, security John Krause, Maj, USMC (ret.) Webmaster cooperation, foreign military sales, stability operations, peacekeeping, TREASURER Maridee Hargus, diplomacy and geopolitical advising Jeff S. Hoffmann, USAFR (ret.) Administrative Assistance for the US Department of Defense, US government stakeholders and allied MONTEREY Rep governments. The views expressed Mark Chakwin, COL, USA (ret.) EDITORIAL BOARD are those of the authors, not of the FAOA, the Department of Defense, EDITOR IN CHIEF Joseph Bincarousky, Maj, USAF or the Armed services or any DoD Graham Plaster, LCDR, USNR Mark Brice Chakwin, COL, USA (ret.) agency, and are intended to advance the Mike Ferguson, COL, USA (ret.) FAO and defense international affairs CONTENT EDITOR David Mack, LtCol, USAF (ret.) profession through academic dialog. John Haseman, COL, USA (ret.) Jason Nicholson, LTC, USA Dan Singleton, MAJ, USA As we continue to professionalize the Ivan Raiklin, MAJ, USA Phil Yu, CAPT, USN journal, our desire is to make it: Vincent Alcazar, COL USAF (ret.) 1. A professional stepping stone to help Robert Fagan, COL, USA (ret.) Vincent Duenas, MAJ, US Army you in your career as a warrior-scholar Robert Friedenberg, COL US Army (ret.) 2. A community of voices representing Paul Gendrolis, LTC, USA (ret.) the diversity of regions, specialties, and experiences in our network SUBSCRIPTION & MEMBERSHIP 3. An advocacy platform to inform the SUBMISSIONS defense community about the value of Subscription to the journal comes with the FAO profession membership in the association. Library Contributors should email articles to 4. A resource to help those who aspire and institutional rates and bulk dis- [email protected]. Further information to become FAOs understand the work counts are also available. Membership of submissions, format requirements and make an informed decision when and subscription information may be and assistance can be found on the back applying obtained online at www.faoa.org cover of this issue and online at www. 5. A bridge for FAO commu- faoa.org nity partners, in the public and private sectors, to stay connected and abreast The Editorial Board uses a “peer of industry thought leadership review” method for coordination of journal submissions. Board members Please join us at a critical inflection represent varied International Affairs point in our history. Whether new to backgrounds from all services including the community or a seasoned FAO, we active, civilian, reserve, and retired. If invite you to write for the journal and you are interested in serving on the spur new, important conversations. editorial board, please email [email protected] Cover Image: Wikimedia commons. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Greater_than_vladimir_putin_vector_image.svg 2 The FAOA Journal of International Affairs www.faoa.org 3 the foreign area officer association journal of INTERNATIONAL Political-Military Affairs | Intelligence | Security Cooperation AFFAIRS Volume XIX, Number 2 — Fall 2016 WWW.FAOA.ORG I N T H I S E D I T I O N 5 | Is Russia the Greatest Threat to U.S. National 49 | Strange Bedfellows in Afghanistan: New Security? Brigadier General Dawne Deskins, U.S. Air Prospects for a Negotiated Settlement with the National Guard; Colonel Chris Harris, U.S. Air Force; Taliban, Commander Todd Glidden, U.S. Navy; Colonel Don Johnson, U.S. Air Force; Captain Jon Major Shawn Patton, U.S. Army; Major Nathan Young, U.S. Navy Stackhouse, U.S. Air Force 12 | Untangling the Gordian Knot? The Socio- 54 | Illiberal Democracy’s Challenge to European Cultural Challenge of Syria, Colonel William Security Policy, Ms. Nahal Kazemi, U.S. Department Mengel, U.S. Army of State 17 | Western Foreign Fighters in Syria: An Empirical Analysis of Recruitment and Mobiliza- 59 | Letter to the Editor: Turkey tion Mechanisms, Lieutenant Commander Justin D. Dragon, U.S. Navy BOOK REVIEWS 22 | Chilean Strategy Towards Antarctica, Lieutenant Colonel Vicente Donoso Herman, Chilean 43 | Game Changers: Going Local to Defeat Air Force Violent Extremists by D. Scott Mann, LTC US Army(retired) | Reviewer: Dan Farson, Captain, U.S. 32 | Fighting to Avoid Conflict: U.S. Counterter- Navy (ret.) rorism Model in Northwest Africa, Colonel Samuel W. Curtis, U.S. Army 57 | Warrior Diplomat: A Green Beret’s Battle from Washington to Afghanistan by Michael G. 38 | Indonesia’s New Maritime Strategy, Waltz | Reviewer: Dustin Vandehey Colonel Timothy W. Gillaspie, U.S. Air Force NEWS FROM THE FIELD 28 | U.S. Defense Attachés in Haiti Worked 45 | FAO Association Joins AUSA to Sponsor Behind the Scenes to Contribute to Diplomatic Security Conference Engagement with Cuba, Commander Ted Kim, U.S. Coast Guard, and Lieutenant Colonel Santiago 47 | Venice to Dakar: How I learned to Stop Otero-Ortiz, U.S. Army Worrying and Love the Operations Protect Directorate, Colonel Scott H. Morgan, U.S. Army 2 The FAOA Journal of International Affairs www.faoa.org 3 LETTER from the EDITOR ellow Foreign Affairs Professionals baseball caps for their children. ... My last contact with Sergun occurred at Home and Abroad, in late 2013, just months before relations broke. I requested a meeting to deliver a message, and this powerful intelligence general arrived When I began assembling this issue it was well before in short notice in modest street clothes. He took my message and we Fthe U.S. election and I thought that we would have the journal in talked briefly about a planned visit to the United States with some your hands before the results were known. Alas, volunteerism of his senior GRU officers. That idea, of course, went stillborn when being what it is, I am writing these notes just a few days after the Russia invaded Crimea. So where do we go from here? The status quo, announcement of our new Commander in Chief. despite some minor improvement, remains quite negative. The results surprised many and certainly We must find meaningful ways to talk and work with introduced a profound new geopolitical context for Russian military counterparts on geostrategic concerns all partners and adversaries of the U.S. What will a of mutual interest, of which there are plenty. Despite “law and order” administration do? Our lead article, disagreements and frustrating disinformation, we must which is timely, asks whether Russia should be our persist in this. Nations, especially ones that are traditional primary national security concern or whether violent confrontational competitors that can existentially threaten extremist groups should be a higher priority. I won’t each other, must constantly and intensively communicate spoil the ending for you. Read the article to see how via different channels and echelons, including sensitive the authors framed it, and write us a letter of response military and intelligence conduits. This is hardly weakness if you disagree. or supplication; rather it displays strength, confidence and Speaking of Russia, during the campaign there prudence, and it shows we are comfortable in our own was some commentary in the media about how skin.* the U.S. should or shouldn’t engage with Putin’s Graham Plaster administration. FAOs often emphasize the importance Editor in Chief, Beyond Russia, General Zwack’s point is of military to military relationships as a backstop to FAO Association Journal applicable the world over. As foreign affairs political volatility. We have the privilege of forging Follow on Twitter professionals work towards this end, to “constantly these relationships and opening channels of com- @FAOAssociation and intensively communicate via different channels munication. I was grateful to receive a reminder of and echelons”, coming against the tide of fake this fact recently from one of our FAOA members, BG news, misinformation memes, and political spin Peter Zwack, who served as Defense Attaché to Russia doctoring, FAOs are the ones who can set the from 2012 to 2014. He sent me a link to his DefenseOne article record straight, speak truth to power and lay the framework for from February 1st which unpacks some of the nuances of the smart power. U.S.-Russia relationship. The following excerpt is shared with We’re in a new geopolitical context, but the importance of his permission: relationship building has not diminished. If anything, given the new leadership, I think we will see an increased emphasis on the Perhaps the highest-profile visit came in June 2013, when work of FAOs, the specialists who both understand the culture Sergun invited Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, director of the Defense Intel- and remain dedicated to “strength, confidence and prudence.” ligence Agency, for a three-day visit to Moscow. Following a trail carefully blazed by several predecessors, Flynn laid a wreath at Russia’s Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and visited the GRU’s ultra-modern headquarters Sincerely, outside Moscow.
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