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A Neoclassical Realist Account

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A Neoclassical Realist Account ABSTRACT The present monograph examines post-revolutionary Iran’s grand strategy by way of its adjustments at three key inection points. The rst spans the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the collapse of the bipolar order and the First Gulf War, along with internal structural changes following Ayatollah Khomeini’s death (1988-91). The second inection point encompasses the events of 11 September and the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq (2001-3). The third corresponds to the more recent Arab uprisings and the increasing internal and external pressures Iran faced over its nuclear program (2011-15). Given the epistemic challenges inherent in any reckoning of intentions or ends, as opposed to capabilities or means, a strict focus on the notion of ‘grand strategic adjustments’ instead permits an empirically-grounded COVER analysis of grand strategy as opposed to a more sweeping but potentially speculative reading. In examining these inection points, the author adopts Neoclassical Realism as a theoretical framework to structure the narrative, furnishing a systematic account linking systemic pressures and incentives (independent variable), via domestic lters (intervening variables), to nal outcomes or grand strategic adjustments (dependent variable). Given the prominence and predominance of ideas and the structure of rule in the Islamic Republic, the focus of domestic factors specically falls on the ‘ideational-constitutive’ (national identity, regime ideology, status aspirations and Grand strategic adjustments in state interests) and ‘institutional-competitive’ (elite interfactional bargaining) aspects. The author concludes that while Iran’s leaders have over the decades proven the capacity to both reconcile ends and means, and identify and respond to grand strategic threats and opportunities, they have ultimately yet to transcend the vicious post-revolutionary Iran: circle of self-manufactured challenges. AUTHOR BIO Kevjn Lim is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, Tel Aviv University, a graduate of its Security Studies program, and a specialist in foreign and A neoclassical realist security policy and Middle East aairs. He is also a Middle East and North Africa consultant analyst for IHS, and senior analyst with the UK-based Open Brieng: The Civil Society Intelligence Agency. account Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security was launched in 2002 by Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel in conjunction with the Harold Hartog School of Policy and Government and the Security Studies Program with the intention of exploring the link among security policy, technology and science. For Kevjn Lim this reason the workshop holds annual series of conferences and conducts research. The workshop covers various topics such as international relations and strategy, missiles and guided weapons, robotics, space policy and security, cyberspace and cyber warfare, the interplay between society and security, nuclear energy, homeland security, force build-up policy, government decision-making processes, and more. May 2016 Author Bio: Kevjn Lim is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, Tel Aviv University, a graduate of its Security Studies program, and a specialist in foreign and security policy and Middle East aairs. He is also a Middle East and North Africa consultant analyst for IHS, and senior analyst with the UK-based Open Brieng: The Civil Society Intelligence Agency. Grand strategic adjustments in post-revolutionary Iran: A neoclassical realist account Kevjn Lim Grand strategic adjustments in post-revolutionary Iran: A neoclassical realist account Kevjn Lim The Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security was launched in 2002 by Major General (Ret.) Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel in conjunction with the Harold Hartog School of Policy and Government and the Security Studies Program at Tel Aviv University. The Workshop was founded with the clear directive of exploring the links between science, technology and security. The Workshop conducts a broad range of research activities that include the publication of research papers and policy reports in the field of national security strategy & policy. Alongside its research activities, the Workshop also holds a senior executive forum that promotes public-private partnerships and initiatives and a popular series of monthly conferences at Tel Aviv University with the participation of senior IDF staff and security organization members, politicians, academia, and executives from leading Israeli and International companies. The goal of the Workshops’ activities is to create an open and fruitful dialogue with the general public in the fields of interest of the Workshop: Cyber Security, Space and Emerging Issues of National Security Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security officials: Major Gen. (Ret.) Prof. Isaac Ben Israel, Head of the Workshop Mrs. Gili Drob – Heistein, Executive Director of the Workshop Ms. Revital Yaron Mrs. Roni Sharir Ms. Dafna Kovler Graphic Editing: Michal Semo Kovetz, TAU Graphic Design Studio Printed by: Tel Aviv University Press, Israel, 2016 © All rights reserved. Table of Contents List of abbreviations 7 Preface 9 Abstract 10 1. Introduction 11 2. Grand strategy as object of inquiry 15 3. Neoclassical realism as theoretical framework 21 Intervening variables and the Iranian context 26 a. Ideational-constitutive variables 27 b. Institutional-competitive variables 36 4. The first inflection point, 1988-91 43 The independent variable: systemic imperatives 43 Intervening variable: ideational-constitutive aspects 45 Intervening variable: institutional-competitive aspects 46 The dependent variable: strategic adjustments 53 a. Internal rebalancing: economic rehabilitation and cooperation with industrialized nations 53 b. Diplomatic suasion and regional stabilization: the GCC 56 c. External balancing against US hegemony: alliances with Russia and China 58 d. Measured influence projection and regional stabilization: Central Asia and Azerbaijan 63 e. Ideological one-upmanship and external balancing: Israel 65 f. Military force posture: rearmament, self-sufficiency, and asymmetric deterrence 66 5. The second inflection point, 2001-3 72 The independent variable: systemic imperatives 72 Intervening variable: ideational-constitutive aspects 74 Intervening variable: institutional-competitive aspects 75 The dependent variable: strategic adjustments 83 a. Phase 1: diplomatic engagement, tactical cooperation in Afghanistan, and strategic anxiety 83 Phase 2: Iran’s strategic position strengthens vis-à-vis the US 88 b. Projecting influence and containing the US: post-Saddam Iraq 90 c. Maximizing power, security, and influence: Iran’s nuclear ambiguity 96 d. External balancing and regionalism: Iranian diplomacy in the East and peripheral states 100 6. The third inflection point, 2011-15 113 The independent variable: systemic imperatives 113 Intervening variable: ideational-constitutive aspects 115 Intervening variable: institutional-competitive aspects 117 The dependent variable: strategic adjustments 124 a. Strategic contention: preserving influence amid growing Sunni-Shi’a sectarianism 124 b. Reparative diplomacy: ‘heroic flexibility’ over Iran’s nuclear program 132 7. Conclusion: discerning an Iranian grand strategy 138 Bibliography 144 List of abbreviations ABNA: Ahlul Bayt News Agency AEI: American Enterprise Institute AFP: Agence France Presse AP: Associated Press (also Additional Protocol, depending on context) BBC SWB: BBC Summary of World Broadcasts BMI: Business Monitor International CCMES: Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Brandeis University) CIA: Central Intelligence Agency CFR: Council on Foreign Relations CNA: Center for Naval Analysis (Corporation) CRS: Congressional Research Service CSIS: Center for Strategic and International Studies CSM: Christian Science Monitor CSR: Center for Strategic Research (Tehran) CTC: Combating Terrorism Center FNSP: Foreign and national security policy FP: Foreign Policy (magazine) FPRI: Foreign Policy Research Institute FPNSE: Foreign policy and national security executive FT: Financial Times HMEIR: Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review IFRI: Institut Français des Relations Internationales IHT: International Herald Tribune IISS: The International Institute for Strategic Studies IRGC: Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRIB: Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (Seda o Sima) ISIS: Institute for Science and International Security MEI: The Middle East Institute MEJ: Middle East Journal MEQ: Middle East Quarterly MEP: Middle East Policy MERIA: Middle East Review of International Affairs MES: Middle Eastern Studies NYT: New York Times RAND: RAND Corporation RFE/RL: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty RSPI: Rivista di Studi Politici Internazionali SIPRI: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute TNI: The National Interest TNR: The New Republic TWQ: The Washington Quarterly WP: Washington Post WINEP: Washington Institute for Near East Policy WRMEA: Washington Report on Middle East Affairs WSJ: Wall Street Journal Preface The study of grand strategy is an undertaking which requires profound appreciation of a nation-state’s history, geography and psychology, as well as an extensive understanding of its international interactions over time. The present monograph is the product of just such an undertaking. It offers a reinterpretation of one of the most critical and controversial international actors today, an indispensable major player in the Middle East, and a salient subject in
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