DOCSLIB.ORG

A Neoclassical Realist Account

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

ABSTRACT The present monograph examines post-revolutionary Iran’s grand strategy by way of its adjustments at three key inection points. The rst spans the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the collapse of the bipolar order and the First Gulf War, along with internal structural changes following Ayatollah Khomeini’s death (1988-91). The second inection point encompasses the events of 11 September and the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq (2001-3). The third corresponds to the more recent Arab uprisings and the increasing internal and external pressures Iran faced over its nuclear program (2011-15). Given the epistemic challenges inherent in any reckoning of intentions or ends, as opposed to capabilities or means, a strict focus on the notion of ‘grand strategic adjustments’ instead permits an empirically-grounded COVER analysis of grand strategy as opposed to a more sweeping but potentially speculative reading. In examining these inection points, the author adopts Neoclassical Realism as a theoretical framework to structure the narrative, furnishing a systematic account linking systemic pressures and incentives (independent variable), via domestic lters (intervening variables), to nal outcomes or grand strategic adjustments (dependent variable). Given the prominence and predominance of ideas and the structure of rule in the Islamic Republic, the focus of domestic factors specically falls on the ‘ideational-constitutive’ (national identity, regime ideology, status aspirations and Grand strategic adjustments in state interests) and ‘institutional-competitive’ (elite interfactional bargaining) aspects. The author concludes that while Iran’s leaders have over the decades proven the capacity to both reconcile ends and means, and identify and respond to grand strategic threats and opportunities, they have ultimately yet to transcend the vicious post-revolutionary Iran: circle of self-manufactured challenges. AUTHOR BIO Kevjn Lim is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, Tel Aviv University, a graduate of its Security Studies program, and a specialist in foreign and A neoclassical realist security policy and Middle East aairs. He is also a Middle East and North Africa consultant analyst for IHS, and senior analyst with the UK-based Open Brieng: The Civil Society Intelligence Agency. account Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security was launched in 2002 by Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel in conjunction with the Harold Hartog School of Policy and Government and the Security Studies Program with the intention of exploring the link among security policy, technology and science. For Kevjn Lim this reason the workshop holds annual series of conferences and conducts research. The workshop covers various topics such as international relations and strategy, missiles and guided weapons, robotics, space policy and security, cyberspace and cyber warfare, the interplay between society and security, nuclear energy, homeland security, force build-up policy, government decision-making processes, and more. May 2016 Author Bio: Kevjn Lim is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, Tel Aviv University, a graduate of its Security Studies program, and a specialist in foreign and security policy and Middle East aairs. He is also a Middle East and North Africa consultant analyst for IHS, and senior analyst with the UK-based Open Brieng: The Civil Society Intelligence Agency. Grand strategic adjustments in post-revolutionary Iran: A neoclassical realist account Kevjn Lim Grand strategic adjustments in post-revolutionary Iran: A neoclassical realist account Kevjn Lim The Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security was launched in 2002 by Major General (Ret.) Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel in conjunction with the Harold Hartog School of Policy and Government and the Security Studies Program at Tel Aviv University. The Workshop was founded with the clear directive of exploring the links between science, technology and security. The Workshop conducts a broad range of research activities that include the publication of research papers and policy reports in the field of national security strategy & policy. Alongside its research activities, the Workshop also holds a senior executive forum that promotes public-private partnerships and initiatives and a popular series of monthly conferences at Tel Aviv University with the participation of senior IDF staff and security organization members, politicians, academia, and executives from leading Israeli and International companies. The goal of the Workshops’ activities is to create an open and fruitful dialogue with the general public in the fields of interest of the Workshop: Cyber Security, Space and Emerging Issues of National Security Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security officials: Major Gen. (Ret.) Prof. Isaac Ben Israel, Head of the Workshop Mrs. Gili Drob – Heistein, Executive Director of the Workshop Ms. Revital Yaron Mrs. Roni Sharir Ms. Dafna Kovler Graphic Editing: Michal Semo Kovetz, TAU Graphic Design Studio Printed by: Tel Aviv University Press, Israel, 2016 © All rights reserved. Table of Contents List of abbreviations 7 Preface 9 Abstract 10 1. Introduction 11 2. Grand strategy as object of inquiry 15 3. Neoclassical realism as theoretical framework 21 Intervening variables and the Iranian context 26 a. Ideational-constitutive variables 27 b. Institutional-competitive variables 36 4. The first inflection point, 1988-91 43 The independent variable: systemic imperatives 43 Intervening variable: ideational-constitutive aspects 45 Intervening variable: institutional-competitive aspects 46 The dependent variable: strategic adjustments 53 a. Internal rebalancing: economic rehabilitation and cooperation with industrialized nations 53 b. Diplomatic suasion and regional stabilization: the GCC 56 c. External balancing against US hegemony: alliances with Russia and China 58 d. Measured influence projection and regional stabilization: Central Asia and Azerbaijan 63 e. Ideological one-upmanship and external balancing: Israel 65 f. Military force posture: rearmament, self-sufficiency, and asymmetric deterrence 66 5. The second inflection point, 2001-3 72 The independent variable: systemic imperatives 72 Intervening variable: ideational-constitutive aspects 74 Intervening variable: institutional-competitive aspects 75 The dependent variable: strategic adjustments 83 a. Phase 1: diplomatic engagement, tactical cooperation in Afghanistan, and strategic anxiety 83 Phase 2: Iran’s strategic position strengthens vis-à-vis the US 88 b. Projecting influence and containing the US: post-Saddam Iraq 90 c. Maximizing power, security, and influence: Iran’s nuclear ambiguity 96 d. External balancing and regionalism: Iranian diplomacy in the East and peripheral states 100 6. The third inflection point, 2011-15 113 The independent variable: systemic imperatives 113 Intervening variable: ideational-constitutive aspects 115 Intervening variable: institutional-competitive aspects 117 The dependent variable: strategic adjustments 124 a. Strategic contention: preserving influence amid growing Sunni-Shi’a sectarianism 124 b. Reparative diplomacy: ‘heroic flexibility’ over Iran’s nuclear program 132 7. Conclusion: discerning an Iranian grand strategy 138 Bibliography 144 List of abbreviations ABNA: Ahlul Bayt News Agency AEI: American Enterprise Institute AFP: Agence France Presse AP: Associated Press (also Additional Protocol, depending on context) BBC SWB: BBC Summary of World Broadcasts BMI: Business Monitor International CCMES: Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Brandeis University) CIA: Central Intelligence Agency CFR: Council on Foreign Relations CNA: Center for Naval Analysis (Corporation) CRS: Congressional Research Service CSIS: Center for Strategic and International Studies CSM: Christian Science Monitor CSR: Center for Strategic Research (Tehran) CTC: Combating Terrorism Center FNSP: Foreign and national security policy FP: Foreign Policy (magazine) FPRI: Foreign Policy Research Institute FPNSE: Foreign policy and national security executive FT: Financial Times HMEIR: Harvard Middle Eastern and Islamic Review IFRI: Institut Français des Relations Internationales IHT: International Herald Tribune IISS: The International Institute for Strategic Studies IRGC: Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRIB: Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (Seda o Sima) ISIS: Institute for Science and International Security MEI: The Middle East Institute MEJ: Middle East Journal MEQ: Middle East Quarterly MEP: Middle East Policy MERIA: Middle East Review of International Affairs MES: Middle Eastern Studies NYT: New York Times RAND: RAND Corporation RFE/RL: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty RSPI: Rivista di Studi Politici Internazionali SIPRI: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute TNI: The National Interest TNR: The New Republic TWQ: The Washington Quarterly WP: Washington Post WINEP: Washington Institute for Near East Policy WRMEA: Washington Report on Middle East Affairs WSJ: Wall Street Journal Preface The study of grand strategy is an undertaking which requires profound appreciation of a nation-state’s history, geography and psychology, as well as an extensive understanding of its international interactions over time. The present monograph is the product of just such an undertaking. It offers a reinterpretation of one of the most critical and controversial international actors today, an indispensable major player in the Middle East, and a salient subject in
Recommended publications
  • The Caucasus Globalization

    The Caucasus Globalization

    Volume 6 Issue 2 2012 1 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES OF THE CAUCASUS THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies Conflicts in the Caucasus: History, Present, and Prospects for Resolution Special Issue Volume 6 Issue 2 2012 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 2 Volume 6 Issue 2 2012 FOUNDEDTHE CAUCASUS AND& GLOBALIZATION PUBLISHED BY INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES OF THE CAUCASUS Registration number: M-770 Ministry of Justice of Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press® Sweden Registration number: 556699-5964 Registration number of the journal: 1218 Editorial Council Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council (Baku) ISMAILOV Tel/fax: (994 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected] Kenan Executive Secretary (Baku) ALLAHVERDIEV Tel: (994 – 12) 596 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Azer represents the journal in Russia (Moscow) SAFAROV Tel: (7 495) 937 77 27 E-mail: [email protected] Nodar represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) KHADURI Tel: (995 32) 99 59 67 E-mail: [email protected] Ayca represents the journal in Turkey (Ankara) ERGUN Tel: (+90 312) 210 59 96 E-mail: [email protected] Editorial Board Nazim Editor-in-Chief (Azerbaijan) MUZAFFARLI Tel: (994 – 12) 510 32 52 E-mail: [email protected] (IMANOV) Vladimer Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Georgia) PAPAVA Tel: (995 – 32) 24 35 55 E-mail: [email protected] Akif Deputy Editor-in-Chief (Azerbaijan) ABDULLAEV Tel: (994 – 12) 596 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Volume 6 IssueMembers 2 2012 of Editorial Board: 3 THE CAUCASUS & GLOBALIZATION Zaza D.Sc.
  • Deterring Iran After the Nuclear Deal

    Deterring Iran After the Nuclear Deal

    MARCH 2017 COVER PHOTO NIEL HESTER | FLICKR 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com Deterring Iran After the Nuclear Deal PROJECT DIRECTORS AND EDITORS Kathleen H. Hicks Melissa G. Dalton CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Melissa G. Dalton Thomas Karako Jon B. Alterman J. Matthew McInnis Michael Connell Hijab Shah Michael Eisenstadt Michael Sulmeyer ISBN 978-1-4422-7993-3 Farideh Farhi Ian Williams Kathleen H. Hicks 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington,Ë|xHSLEOCy279933z DC 20036v*:+:!:+:! 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Blank MARCH 2017 Deterring Iran after the Nuclear Deal PROJ ECT DIRECTORS AND EDITORS Kathleen H. Hicks Melissa G. Dalton CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Melissa G. Dalton Thomas Karako Jon B. Alterman J. Matthew McInnis Michael Connell Hijab Shah Michael Eisenstadt Michael Sulmeyer Farideh Farhi Ian Williams Kathleen H. Hicks Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-68742_ch00_6P.indd 1 3/13/17 7:13 AM About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. T oday, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M.
  • Possible Succession Scenarios in Iran

    Possible Succession Scenarios in Iran

    Possible Succession Scenarios In Iran by Erfan Fard BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,062, June 3, 2021 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: A presidential election will take place in Iran on June 18, and it is rumored that Ali Khamenei prefers one candidate above the others: Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi. While Raisi has never belonged to the IRGC, his election would nevertheless represent a victory for the hardliners. Despite his lack of religious credentials, Raisi is also considered a serious contender to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the main economic, intelligence, and military power in Iran. While also very strong politically, the Corps has yet to assume full power in the political sphere. The upcoming presidential elections are highly portentous for both the IRGC and the house of Khamenei. Several IRCG commanders announced their desire to run for the presidency, but only one, Mohsen Rezaee—an individual with close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—was approved as a candidate and placed on the ballot. There are widespread rumors that Khamenei prefers the current Chief Justice, Ebrahim Raisi, over Rezaee for the presidency of the Islamic Republic. Rezaee was a presidential candidate in the 2017 elections but lost to the current incumbent, Hassan Rouhani. Should Raisi triumph in June, his ascent to the presidency over Rezaee would not represent a setback to the IRGC, as he too is closely linked to the Corps. It is highly likely that Raisi will indeed become the next president of Iran. The presidency is not, however, the only pressing internal matter in the country.
  • Iran's Nuclear Ambitions From

    Iran's Nuclear Ambitions From

    IDENTITY AND LEGITIMACY: IRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS FROM NON- TRADITIONAL PERSPECTIVES Pupak Mohebali Doctor of Philosophy University of York Politics June 2017 Abstract This thesis examines the impact of Iranian elites’ conceptions of national identity on decisions affecting Iran's nuclear programme and the P5+1 nuclear negotiations. “Why has the development of an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle been portrayed as a unifying symbol of national identity in Iran, especially since 2002 following the revelation of clandestine nuclear activities”? This is the key research question that explores the Iranian political elites’ perspectives on nuclear policy actions. My main empirical data is elite interviews. Another valuable source of empirical data is a discourse analysis of Iranian leaders’ statements on various aspects of the nuclear programme. The major focus of the thesis is how the discourses of Iranian national identity have been influential in nuclear decision-making among the national elites. In this thesis, I examine Iranian national identity components, including Persian nationalism, Shia Islamic identity, Islamic Revolutionary ideology, and modernity and technological advancement. Traditional rationalist IR approaches, such as realism fail to explain how effective national identity is in the context of foreign policy decision-making. I thus discuss the connection between national identity, prestige and bargaining leverage using a social constructivist approach. According to constructivism, states’ cultures and identities are not established realities, but the outcomes of historical and social processes. The Iranian nuclear programme has a symbolic nature that mingles with socially constructed values. There is the need to look at Iran’s nuclear intentions not necessarily through the lens of a nuclear weapons programme, but rather through the regime’s overall nuclear aspirations.
  • The Regionalist Perspective a Thesis Submitted

    The Regionalist Perspective a Thesis Submitted

    TURKEY’S FLUCTUATING RELATIONS WITH IRAN, 2002-2019: THE REGIONALIST PERSPECTIVE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ZEHRA FUNDA SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JANUARY 2021 1 2 Approval of the thesis: TURKEY’S FLUCTUATING RELATIONS WITH IRAN, 2002-2019: THE REGIONALIST PERSPECTIVE submitted by ZEHRA FUNDA SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations, the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Oktay TANRISEVER Head of Department International Relations Prof. Dr. Meliha BENLİ ALTUNIŞIK Supervisor International Relations Examining Committee Members: Assist. Prof. Dr. Şerif Onur BAHÇECİK (Head of the Examining Committee) Middle East Technical University International Relations Prof. Dr. Meliha BENLİ ALTUNIŞIK (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University International Relations Assist. Prof. Dr. Derya GÖÇER AKDER Middle East Technical University Area Studies Assist. Prof. Dr. Gülriz ŞEN TOBB University of Economics and Technology Political Science and International Relations Assist. Prof. Dr. Bayram SİNKAYA Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University International Relations 3 4 PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work Name, Last Name: ZEHRA FUNDA SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA Signature: iii ABSTRACT TURKEY’S FLUCTUATING RELATIONS WITH IRAN, 2002-2019: THE REGIONALIST PERSPECTIVE SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA, Zehra Funda Ph.D., The Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof.
  • Full Issue File

    Full Issue File

    Biannual of Research Institute for Strategic Strategic for Institute Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs 31 Vol. 11. No.1. Winter&Spring2020 Advisory Board Mohsen Rezaee Mirghaed, Kamal Kharazi, Ali Akbar Velayati, Ahmad Vahidi, Saeed Jalili, Publisher Ali Shamkhanim, Hosein Amirabdolahian, Ali Bagheri Institute for Strategic Research Editorial Board Expediency Council Seyed Mohammad Kazem Sajjadpour Director Professor, School of International Relations Mohsen Rezaee Mirghaed Gulshan Dietl Associate Professor, Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University Imam Hossein University Mohammad Marandi Professor, University of Tehran Jamshid Momtaz Editor-in-Chief Professor, University of Tehran Seyed Mohammad Kazem Mohammad Javad Zarif Sajjadpour Associate Professor, School of World Studies Professor of School of Mohiaddin Mesbahi International Relations Professor, Florida International University Hosein Salimi Professor, Allameh Tabatabii University Secretary of advisory board Seyed Jalal Dehghani Mohammad Nazari Professor, Allameh Tabatabii University Naser Hadian Director of Executive Affairs Assistant professor, University of Tehran Hadi Gholamnia Vitaly Naumkin Professor, Moscow State University Copyediting Hassan Hoseini Zeinab Ghasemi Tari Assistant Professor, University of Tehran Mohammad Ali Shirkhani Layout and Graphics Najmeh Ghaderi Professor, University of Tehran Foad Izadi Assistant Professor, University of Tehran Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs (IRFA) achieved the highest scientific ISSN: 2008-8221 grade from the Ministry of Science,
  • KHERAD-DISSERTATION-2013.Pdf

    KHERAD-DISSERTATION-2013.Pdf

    Copyright by Nastaran Narges Kherad 2013 The Dissertation Committee for Nastaran Narges Kherad Certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: RE-EXAMINING THE WORKS OF AHMAD MAHMUD: A FICTIONAL DEPICTION OF THE IRANIAN NATION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY Committee: M.R. Ghanoonparvar, Supervisor Kamran Aghaie Kristen Brustad Elizabeth Richmond-Garza Faegheh Shirazi RE-EXAMINING THE WORKS OF AHMAD MAHMUD: A FICTIONAL DEPICTION OF THE IRANIAN NATION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE 20TH CENTURY by Nastaran Narges Kherad, B.A.; M.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin May 2013 Dedication Dedicated to my son, Manai Kherad-Aminpour, the joy of my life. May you grow with a passion for literature and poetry! And may you face life with an adventurous spirit and understanding of the diversity and complexity of humankind! Acknowledgements The completion of this dissertation could not have been possible without the ongoing support of my committee members. First and for most, I am grateful to Professor Ghanoonparvar, who believed in this project from the very beginning and encouraged me at every step of the way. I thank him for giving his time so generously whenever I needed and for reading, editing, and commenting on this dissertation, and also for sharing his tremendous knowledge of Persian literature. I am thankful to have the pleasure of knowing and working with Professor Kamaran Aghaei, whose seminars on religion I cherished the most.
  • The Iranian Leadership's Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy

    The Iranian Leadership's Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy

    The Iranian Leadership’s Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy Israel 2009-2012 Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs המרכז הירושלמי לענייני ציבור ומדינה )ע"ר( © 2012 Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs 13 Tel Hai Street, Jerusalem, Israel Tel. 972-2-5619281 Fax. 972-2-5619112 Email: [email protected] Website: www.jcpa.org ISBN: 978-965-218-106-0 Production Coordinator: Tommy Berzi Graphic Design: Studio Rami & Jaki - www.ramijaki.co.il An updated version of “What Iranian Leaders Really Say about Doing Away with Israel: A Refutation of the Campaign to Excuse Ahmadinejad’s Incitement to Genocide”(November 2008) 2 The Iranian Leadership’s Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy Israel Preface In 2008, the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs published an in-depth study of the Iranian leadership’s views on Israel and Jews.1 At the time, international attention had been focused on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s October 2005 statement that Israel should be “wiped off the map.” A controversy arose at the time over whether he indeed made this remark or was mistranslated, as several academics and two members of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) and Ron Paul (R-Texas), alleged. It was demonstrated that Ahmadinejad indeed called for the destruction of Israel and his words were not misrepresented. The previous study concluded with the observation by Michael Axworthy, who served as head of the Iran Section of Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office from 1998 to 2000: “The formula had been used before by Khomeini and others, and had been translated by representatives of the Iranian regime as ‘wiped off the map.’ Some of the dispute that has arisen over what exactly Ahmadinejad meant by it has been rather bogus.
  • The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: a Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr

    The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: a Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr

    רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" ) רמה כרמ כ ז ז מל מה ו י תשר עד מל מה ו ד ו י ד ע י י ע ן י ן ו רטל ( למ ו מ" ר ) כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ו רטל ו ר The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: A Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr. Raz Zimmt November 5, 2020 Main Argument The Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has become a major intelligence apparatus of the Islamic Republic, having increased its influence and broadened its authorities. Iran’s intelligence apparatus, similar to other control and governance apparatuses in the Islamic Republic, is characterized by power plays, rivalries and redundancy. The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC, which answers to the supreme leader, operates alongside the Ministry of Intelligence, which was established in 1984 and answers to the president. The redundancy and overlap in the authorities of the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization have created disagreements and competition over prestige between the two bodies. In recent years, senior regime officials and officials within the two organizations have attempted to downplay the extent of disagreements between the organizations, and strove to present to domestic and foreign audience a visage of unity. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization (ILNA, July 16, 2020) The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, in its current form, was established in 2009. The Organization’s origin is in the Intelligence Unit of the IRGC, established shortly after the Islamic Revolution (1979).
  • UN Deems Gen. Soleimani Assassination A

    UN Deems Gen. Soleimani Assassination A

    WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 12 Pages Price 50,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 42nd year No.13705 Wednesday JULY 8, 2020 Tir 18, 1399 Dhi Al Qada 16, 1441 Next U.S. administration Tire production FIFA orders Persepolis Poor communication during must compensate for increases 24% in to pay Calderon pandemic brings depression to harms inflicted on Iran 2 a quarter yr/yr 4 $ 580,000 11 artists, gallery owners: art expert 12 Capital market, a chance for mining sector to bloom UN deems Gen. Soleimani By Ebrahim Fallahi sized mines across the country that are TEHRAN – Being among the world’s being operated by the government or top mineral-rich countries, Iran has set a the private sector. new target for further development of its Recently, however, due to the obsta- mining sector as the country’s economy is cles created by the U.S sanctions, many assassination a ‘violation moving away from oil toward becoming of the small and medium-sized mines oil-independent. which are mainly owned by the private Iran is one of the top 10 mineral-rich sector have been facing serious problems See page 3 countries in the world in which 68 types regarding the overhaul of their machinery of minerals have been identified so far, and equipment and even exports of their of UN Charter’ including the world’s largest deposits products, so that several small mines have of copper, zinc, and iron; so there are been forced to reduce their production or numerous large, medium and small- even completely shut down.
  • Tightening the Reins How Khamenei Makes Decisions

    Tightening the Reins How Khamenei Makes Decisions

    MEHDI KHALAJI TIGHTENING THE REINS HOW KHAMENEI MAKES DECISIONS MEHDI KHALAJI TIGHTENING THE REINS HOW KHAMENEI MAKES DECISIONS POLICY FOCUS 126 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY www.washingtoninstitute.org Policy Focus 126 | March 2014 The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including pho- tocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2014 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds a weapon as he speaks at the University of Tehran. (Reuters/Raheb Homavandi). Design: 1000 Colors CONTENTS Executive Summary | V 1. Introduction | 1 2. Life and Thought of the Leader | 7 3. Khamenei’s Values | 15 4. Khamenei’s Advisors | 20 5. Khamenei vs the Clergy | 27 6. Khamenei vs the President | 34 7. Khamenei vs Political Institutions | 44 8. Khamenei’s Relationship with the IRGC | 52 9. Conclusion | 61 Appendix: Profile of Hassan Rouhani | 65 About the Author | 72 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EVEN UNDER ITS MOST DESPOTIC REGIMES , modern Iran has long been governed with some degree of consensus among elite factions. Leaders have conceded to or co-opted rivals when necessary to maintain their grip on power, and the current regime is no excep- tion.
  • Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - I

    Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - I

    IRAN AND THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE - I The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions FIFTH WORKING DRAFT By Anthony H. Cordesman and Alexander Wilner Revised July 11, 2012 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Cordesman/Wilner: Iran & The Gulf Military Balance, Rev 5 7/11/12 2 Acknowledgements This analysis was made possible by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation. It draws on the work of Dr. Abdullah Toukan and a series of reports on Iran by Adam Seitz, a Senior Research Associate and Instructor, Middle East Studies, Marine Corps University. 2 Cordesman/Wilner: Iran & The Gulf Military Balance, Rev 5 7/11/12 3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 5 THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 6 Figure III.1: Summary Chronology of US-Iranian Military Competition: 2000-2011 ............................... 8 CURRENT PATTERNS IN THE STRUCTURE OF US AND IRANIAN MILITARY COMPETITION ........................................... 13 DIFFERING NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES .............................................................................................................. 17 US Perceptions .................................................................................................................................... 17 Iranian Perceptions............................................................................................................................