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Understanding the Change in Intelligence Organizations UNDERSTANDING THE CHANGE IN INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS: AN INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK by Ahmet Ates A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the University of Delaware in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science and International Relations Summer 2020 © 2020 Ahmet Ates All Rights Reserved UNDERSTANDING THE CHANGE IN INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS: AN INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK by Ahmet Ates Approved: __________________________________________________________ David Redlawsk, Ph.D. Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations Approved: __________________________________________________________ John A. Pelesko, Ph.D. Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences Approved: __________________________________________________________ Douglas J. Doren, Ph.D. Interim Vice Provost for Graduate and Professional Education and Dean of the Graduate College ii I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ M.A. Muqtedar Khan, Ph.D. Professor in charge of dissertation I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: Daniel M. Green, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Kassra A. R. Oskooii, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Yucel Bozdaglioglu, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Completing a doctoral degree requires intellectual, financial, and social capital. Luckily, I had three of them. First, I am grateful to my advisor Muqtedar Khan and committee members Daniel Green, Kassra Oskooii, and Yucel Bozdaglioglu for their guidance and contribution to this dissertation. Also, I thank my interviewees. They were generous to share their field experience with me to enhance my research. Second, I am grateful to the Turkish Ministry of National Education for their financial support. Without their scholarship, I would not have come to the US and got my doctoral degree. Also, I thank the University of Delaware, College of Arts and Sciences, Dean’s Office for providing me a travel grant, which gave me a chance to conduct fieldwork in Turkey. Last, I would like to thank my family for their support in this five-year- journey. I am grateful to my father Ugur Ates, my mother Guldane Ates, and my sister and brother Gulsum and Gurcan Onalan for not only their unconditional support but also bearing the 6000 miles between us for the last five years. More importantly, I am more than grateful to my dear wife Sevde Ates and my little daughter Tomris Ates for being the sources of joy and beauty of my life. Because Sevde has been with me in the last four years, not only I am a doctor now but also, I am the happiest man in the world. Finally, I thank Tomris for being the first reviewer of the early drafts of this dissertation since I read it to her several times while I was trying to put her sleep. I dedicate this dissertation to Sevde and Tomris. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... ix LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... xi ABSTRACT............................................................................................................ xvi Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Questions and Initial Explanations .......................................... 2 1.2 Method and Case Selection .................................................................. 12 1.3 Resources ............................................................................................. 16 1.4 Outline of the Dissertation ................................................................... 17 2 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK .............................................................. 20 2.1 Literature Review ................................................................................... 20 2.2. Institutional Framework ......................................................................... 34 2.2.1 Hypotheses .................................................................................. 34 2.2.1.1 Cataclysmic Event ........................................................ 34 2.2.1.2 External Threats ............................................................ 38 2.2.1.3 Domestic Threats .......................................................... 42 2.2.2 Concepts and Variables ............................................................... 46 2.2.2.1 Levels of Change .......................................................... 46 2.2.2.2 Types of Change ........................................................... 49 2.2.2.3 Variables....................................................................... 52 2.2.2.4. Institutional Framework ............................................... 57 2.3 General Background of American, Turkish and Russian Intelligence Organizations ....................................................................................... 59 2.3.1 The United States’ Intelligence Organizations ............................. 59 2.3.2 Turkish Intelligence Organizations .............................................. 74 v 2.3.3 Russian Intelligence Organizations .............................................. 80 2.4 Conclusion .............................................................................................. 85 3 CATACLYSMIC EVENTS .......................................................................... 89 3.1 Case of the United States of America ...................................................... 91 3.1.1. Philosophical Changes ................................................................ 93 3.1.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft ............................................... 99 3.1.3 Organizational Change ...............................................................107 3.1.3.1 Major Organizational Changes .....................................108 3.1.3.2 Minor Organizational Changes .....................................110 3.2. Case of Turkey ......................................................................................112 3.2.1 Philosophical Change .................................................................116 3.2.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft ..............................................119 3.2.3. Organizational Change ..............................................................131 3.3. Case of Russia ......................................................................................135 3.3.1. Philosophical Change ................................................................137 3.3.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft ..............................................140 3.3.3. Organizational Change ..............................................................141 3.4. Understanding the Transformation of Intelligence Organizations after a Cataclysmic Event ..............................................................................148 3.5. Conclusion ............................................................................................154 4 EXTERNAL THREATS..............................................................................157 4.1. Traditional External Threats ..................................................................159 4.1.1. Case of the United States of America.........................................159 4.1.1.1. Cognitive Change .......................................................160 4.1.1.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft................................163 4.1.2. Case of Turkey ..........................................................................169 4.1.2.1 Cognitive Change ........................................................169 4.1.2.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft................................172 vi 4.1.3. Case of Russia ...........................................................................179 4.1.3.1. Cognitive Change .......................................................181 4.1.3.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft................................184 4.2. Non-State External Threats ...................................................................187 4.2.1 Case of the United States of America .........................................188 4.2.1.1 Cognitive Change ........................................................189 4.2.1.2. Change in Intelligence Tradecraft................................192 4.2.1.3. Organizational Change ................................................197 4.2.2.
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