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The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction an Update
A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTIAL SCHOLAR’S PAPER THE FUTURE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AN UPDATE By John P. Caves, Jr. NIU Presidential Scholar November 2019 – November 2020 and W. Seth Carus THE FUTURE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION AN UPDATE John P. Caves, Jr. and W. Seth Carus National Intelligence University National Intelligence Press Washington, DC February 2021 The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Intelligence University, National Defense University, or any other part of the U.S. government. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS While the authors are solely responsible for the final content of this paper, they benefited greatly from the time, expertise and support freely availed to them by many knowledgeable individuals and organizations. They include Mr. Caves’ colleagues at National Intelligence University (NIU), where he worked on this paper while on a detail assignment from National Defense University (NDU). Mr. Caves expresses par- ticular gratitude to Dr. Brian Holmes, dean of the Anthony G. Oettinger School of Science and Technol- ogy Intelligence, for his leadership, knowledge, and support. Dr. Sharon Adams, Ms. Beverly Barnhart, Mr. George Clifford, Dr. LaMesha Craft, and Dr. R. Carter Morris offered helpful comments on the paper at various stages. They and Mr. Damarius Alston, LTC Jeffrey Bacon, Lt Col Frances Deutch, Ms. Thelma Flamer, Mr. Julian Meade, and Ms. Christina Sanders were among others at NIU whose assistance and support made Mr. Caves’ assignment at NIU enjoyable as well as productive. Both authors are deeply indebted to their colleagues at NDU’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction (CSWMD), especially Mr. -
Wikileaks and the Institutional Framework for National Security Disclosures
THE YALE LAW JOURNAL PATRICIA L. BELLIA WikiLeaks and the Institutional Framework for National Security Disclosures ABSTRACT. WikiLeaks' successive disclosures of classified U.S. documents throughout 2010 and 2011 invite comparison to publishers' decisions forty years ago to release portions of the Pentagon Papers, the classified analytic history of U.S. policy in Vietnam. The analogy is a powerful weapon for WikiLeaks' defenders. The Supreme Court's decision in the Pentagon Papers case signaled that the task of weighing whether to publicly disclose leaked national security information would fall to publishers, not the executive or the courts, at least in the absence of an exceedingly grave threat of harm. The lessons of the PentagonPapers case for WikiLeaks, however, are more complicated than they may first appear. The Court's per curiam opinion masks areas of substantial disagreement as well as a number of shared assumptions among the Court's members. Specifically, the Pentagon Papers case reflects an institutional framework for downstream disclosure of leaked national security information, under which publishers within the reach of U.S. law would weigh the potential harms and benefits of disclosure against the backdrop of potential criminal penalties and recognized journalistic norms. The WikiLeaks disclosures show the instability of this framework by revealing new challenges for controlling the downstream disclosure of leaked information and the corresponding likelihood of "unintermediated" disclosure by an insider; the risks of non-media intermediaries attempting to curtail such disclosures, in response to government pressure or otherwise; and the pressing need to prevent and respond to leaks at the source. AUTHOR. -
ASD-Covert-Foreign-Money.Pdf
overt C Foreign Covert Money Financial loopholes exploited by AUGUST 2020 authoritarians to fund political interference in democracies AUTHORS: Josh Rudolph and Thomas Morley © 2020 The Alliance for Securing Democracy Please direct inquiries to The Alliance for Securing Democracy at The German Marshall Fund of the United States 1700 18th Street, NW Washington, DC 20009 T 1 202 683 2650 E [email protected] This publication can be downloaded for free at https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/covert-foreign-money/. The views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the authors alone. Cover and map design: Kenny Nguyen Formatting design: Rachael Worthington Alliance for Securing Democracy The Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD), a bipartisan initiative housed at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, develops comprehensive strategies to deter, defend against, and raise the costs on authoritarian efforts to undermine and interfere in democratic institutions. ASD brings together experts on disinformation, malign finance, emerging technologies, elections integrity, economic coercion, and cybersecurity, as well as regional experts, to collaborate across traditional stovepipes and develop cross-cutting frame- works. Authors Josh Rudolph Fellow for Malign Finance Thomas Morley Research Assistant Contents Executive Summary �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Introduction and Methodology �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� -
Directors of Central Intelligence As Leaders of the U.S
All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in this book are those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Central Intel- ligence Agency or any other US government entity, past or present. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US government endorsement of the authors’ factual statements and interpretations. The Center for the Study of Intelligence The Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) was founded in 1974 in response to Director of Central Intelligence James Schlesinger’s desire to create within CIA an organization that could “think through the functions of intelligence and bring the best intellects available to bear on intelli- gence problems.” The Center, comprising professional historians and experienced practitioners, attempts to document lessons learned from past operations, explore the needs and expectations of intelligence consumers, and stimulate serious debate on current and future intelligence challenges. To support these activities, CSI publishes Studies in Intelligence and books and monographs addressing historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects of the intelligence profession. It also administers the CIA Museum and maintains the Agency’s Historical Intelligence Collection. Comments and questions may be addressed to: Center for the Study of Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency Washington, DC 20505 Printed copies of this book are available to requesters outside the US government from: Government Printing Office (GPO) Superintendent of Documents P.O. Box 391954 Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954 Phone: (202) 512-1800 E-mail: [email protected] ISBN: 1-929667-14-0 The covers: The portraits on the front and back covers are of the 19 directors of central intelligence, beginning with the first, RAdm. -
Typologies of the Use of Preventive Measures of Financial Institutions for Crime Detection and Risk Assessment
ЕВРАЗИЙСКАЯ ГРУППА по противодействию легализации преступных доходов и финансированию терроризма EURASIAN GROUP on combating money laundering and financing of terrorism EAG TYPOLOGY PROJECT TYPOLOGIES OF THE USE OF PREVENTIVE MEASURES OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR CRIME DETECTION AND RISK ASSESSMENT TYPOLOGICAL STUDY REPORT 2021 Contents General ....................................................................................................................... 3 Preventive Measures and Suspicious Transaction Reporting in the EAG members 3 Approaches Used by FIUs for Analyzing Incoming STRs and Service Denial Reports ....................................................................................................................... 9 Feedback on STRs ................................................................................................... 16 Trends and risks in the spread of COVID-19 .......................................................... 21 Impact of COVID-19 on AML/CFT supervisory activities and implementation of preventive measures ................................................................................................ 24 Summary of recommendations following the results of the study: ......................... 26 General Application by entities engaged in transactions with funds or other assets of preventive measures as well as identification of suspicious transactions and submission of suspicious transaction reports (STRs) to the financial investigation units (FIUs) is one of the most important measures aimed -
Intelligence Legalism and the National Security Agency's Civil Liberties
112 Harvard National Security Journal / Vol. 6 ARTICLE Intelligence Legalism and the National Security Agency’s Civil Liberties Gap __________________________ Margo Schlanger* * Henry M. Butzel Professor of Law, University of Michigan. I have greatly benefited from conversations with John DeLong, Mort Halperin, Alex Joel, David Kris, Marty Lederman, Nancy Libin, Rick Perlstein, Becky Richards, and several officials who prefer not to be named, all of whom generously spent time with me, discussing the issues in this article, and many of whom also helped again after reading the piece in draft. I would also like to extend thanks to Sam Bagenstos, Rick Lempert, Daphna Renan, Alex Rossmiller, Adrian Vermeule, Steve Vladeck, Marcy Wheeler, Shirin Sinnar and other participants in the 7th Annual National Security Law Workshop, participants at the University of Iowa law faculty workshop, and my colleagues at the University of Michigan Legal Theory Workshop and governance group lunch, who offered me extremely helpful feedback. Jennifer Gitter and Lauren Dayton provided able research assistance. All errors are, of course, my responsibility. Copyright © 2015 by the Presidents and Fellows of Harvard College and Margo Schlanger. 2015 / Intelligence Legalism and the NSA’s Civil Liberties Gaps 113 Abstract Since June 2013, we have seen unprecedented security breaches and disclosures relating to American electronic surveillance. The nearly daily drip, and occasional gush, of once-secret policy and operational information makes it possible to analyze and understand National Security Agency activities, including the organizations and processes inside and outside the NSA that are supposed to safeguard American’s civil liberties as the agency goes about its intelligence gathering business. -
Intelligence Services Roles and Responsibilities in Good Security Sector Governance
SSR BACKGROUNDER Intelligence Services Roles and responsibilities in good security sector governance About this series The SSR Backgrounders provide concise introductions to topics and concepts in good security sector governance (SSG) and security sector reform (SSR). The series summarizes current debates, explains key terms and exposes central tensions based on a broad range of international experiences. The SSR Backgrounders do not promote specific models, policies or proposals for good governance or reform but do provide further resources that will allow readers to extend their knowledge on each topic. The SSR Backgrounders are a resource for security governance and reform stakeholders seeking to understand but also to critically assess current approaches to good SSG and SSR. About this SSR Backgrounder This SSR Backgrounder explains the roles and responsibilities of intelligence services in good security sector governance (SSG). Intelligence services perform an essential security function by providing governments with timely and relevant information necessary to protect the security of states and their societies. Applying the principles of good SSG to intelligence services makes them both effective and accountable within a framework of democratic governance, the rule of law and respect for human rights. This SSR Backgrounder answers the following questions: What are intelligence services? Page 2 What do intelligence services do? Page 2 How is intelligence produced? Page 4 What intrusive legal powers do intelligence services hold? -
DETAILED ASSESSMENT REPORT on ISRAEL ANTI-MONEY
Strasbourg, 22 August 2008 MONEYVAL (2008) 01 EUROPEAN COMMITTEE ON CRIME PROBLEMS (CDPC) COMMITTEE OF EXPERTS ON THE EVALUATION OF ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING MEASURES AND THE FINANCING OF TERRORISM (MONEYVAL) DETAILED ASSESSMENT REPORT on ISRAEL 1 ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING AND COMBATING THE FINANCING OF TERRORISM Memorandum prepared by the Secretariat Directorate General of Human Rights and Legal Affairs (DG-HL) 1 Adopted by the MONEYVAL Committee at its 27 th Plenary Session (Strasbourg, 7-11 July 2008). All rights reserved. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. For any use for commercial purposes, no part of this publication may be translated, reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic (CD-Rom, Internet, etc) or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system without prior permission in writing from the MONEYVAL Secretariat, Directorate General of Human Rights and Legal Affairs, Council of Europe (F-67075 Strasbourg or [email protected]). 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. PREFACE.................................................................................................................................................... 7 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................................ 8 III. MUTUAL EVALUATION REPORT .................................................................................................... 15 1. GENERAL ................................................................................................................................... -
Treasury's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Could
September 2009 COMBATING ILLICIT FINANCING Accountability Integrity Reliability Treasury’s Office of Terrorism and Financial Highlights Intelligence Could Manage More Effectively to Highlights of GAO-09-794, a report to the Achieve Its Mission Committee on Finance, United States Senate Why GAO Did This Study What GAO Found In 2004, Congress combined TFI undertakes five functions, each implemented by a TFI component, in preexisting and newly created units order to achieve its mission, as shown in the following table. to form the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) within TFI Components and Functions the Department of the Treasury (Treasury). TFI’s mission is to Year integrate intelligence and Main function TFI component formed enforcement functions to (1) Build international coalitions Office of Terrorist Financing and 2004 safeguard the financial system Financial Crime Analyze financial intelligence Office of Intelligence and Analysis (OIA) 2004 against illicit use and (2) combat Administer and enforce the Bank Financial Crimes Enforcement Network 1990 rogue nations, terrorist facilitators, Secrecy Act (FinCEN) and other national security threats. Administer and enforce sanctions Office of Foreign Assets Control 1950 In the 5 years since TFI’s creation, Administer forfeited funds Treasury Executive Office for Asset 1992 questioned have been raised about Forfeiture how TFI is managed and allocates Source: Treasury. its resources. As a result, GAO was asked to analyze how TFI (1) TFI officials cite the analysis of financial intelligence as a critical part of TFI’s implements its functions, particularly in collaboration with efforts because it underlies TFI’s ability to utilize many of its tools. -
American Intelligence Journal Vol 34
AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE JOURNAL THE MAGAZINE FOR INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS The Cyber Threat: The Future of Intelligence in a Wired World __NMIF__________________________ Vol. 34, No. 1, 2017 American THE MAGAZINE FOR INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS Intelligence Journal Vol. 34, No. 1 2017 ISSN 0883-072X NMIF Board of Directors LTG (USA, Ret) Mary A. Legere, Chair Col (USAF, Ret) John Clark, President Col (USAF, Ret) William Arnold, Vice President Col (USAF, Ret) Michael Grebb, Treasurer Col (USAF, Ret) Carla Bass, Director LTC (USA, Ret) Steve Iwicki, Director Mr. Don Bolser, Director Dr. (Col, USAF, Ret) Eva S. Jenkins CDR (USNR, Ret) Calland Carnes, Director Capt (USNR, Ret) Stephanie Leung, Director Mr. Dennis DeMolet, Director Kel McClanahan, Esq., Director Lt Col (USAF, Ret) James Eden, Director Brad Moss, Esq., Director COL (USA, Ret) Michael Ferguson, Director Capt (USNR) Rick Myllenbeck, Director Col (USAF, Ret) Owen Greenblatt CDR (USNR) Louis Tucker, Director COL (USA, Ret) David Hale, Director COL (USA, Ret) Gerald York, Director Editor - COL (USA, Ret) William C. Spracher, Ed.D. Production Manager - Ms. Debra Hamby-Davis Brig Gen (USAF, Ret) Scott Bethel, Director Emeritus Dr. Forrest R. Frank, Director Emeritus MajGen (USMC, Ret) Michael Ennis, Director Emeritus LTG (USA, Ret) Patrick M. Hughes, Director Emeritus Col (USAF, Ret) William Huntington, Director Emeritus The American Intelligence Journal (AIJ) is published by the National Military Intelligence Foundation (NMIF), a non-profit, non-political foundation supporting American intelligence professionals and the U.S. Intelligence Community, primarily through educational means. NMIF believes in the power of the intelligence mission to inspire young people to join the intelligence profession as a career of service to the nation. -
Congressional Record United States Th of America PROCEEDINGS and DEBATES of the 108 CONGRESS, SECOND SESSION
E PL UR UM IB N U U S Congressional Record United States th of America PROCEEDINGS AND DEBATES OF THE 108 CONGRESS, SECOND SESSION Vol. 150 WASHINGTON, WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2004 No. 139 House of Representatives The House was not in session today. Its next meeting will be held on Tuesday, January 4, 2005, at 12 noon. Senate WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2004 The Senate met at 9:30 a.m. and was generations. Thank You for Your pro- ple with issues and wisdom to seek called to order by the President pro tection. You make wars to cease, de- Your guidance. tempore (Mr. STEVENS). stroying the weapons of those who Bless and strengthen the many staff- fight against Your purposes. Today, ers who provide the wind beneath the PRAYER guide our lawmakers with Your justice wings of our leaders. Bring to them a The Chaplain, Dr. Barry C. Black, of- and keep them as the apple of Your bountiful harvest for their many fered the following prayer: eye. Instruct them in Your wisdom and months of faithful toil. Let us pray. hide them under the shadow of Your Bless all who mourn the loss of Stan Faithful God, who stretches out the wings. Help them to find light in Your Kimmitt. He will be greatly missed. Earth above the waters, Your Name is laws and knowledge in Your instruc- We pray this in Your holy Name. great and Your goodness extends to all tions. Give them patience as they grap- Amen. NOTICE If the 108th Congress, 2d Session, adjourns sine die on or before December 10, 2004, a final issue of the Congres- sional Record for the 108th Congress, 2d Session, will be published on Monday, December 20, 2004, in order to permit Members to revise and extend their remarks. -
Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: a Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Pa
Department of Political Science Master’s Degree in International Relations - Global Studies Chair of Geopolitical Scenarios and Political Risk Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: A Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Paris Attacks and the Exceptionality of the Italian Case SUPERVISOR CANDIDATE Prof. Giuseppe Scognamiglio Antonella Camerino Student ID: 639472 CO-SUPERVISOR Prof. Lorenzo Castellani ACCADEMIC YEAR 2019-2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………………5 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………..6 CHAPTER 1: Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework 1.1 – The Intelligence Cycle………………………………………………………………….11 1.2 – Intelligence Failures…………………………………………………………………….19 1.3 – The Strategic Surprises and Surprises Attacks………………………………………….24 1.4 – The Black Swan Theory………………………………………………………………...30 CHAPTER 2: The Case of USA: The Attacks of the 9/11 2.1 – The US Intelligence Community……………………………………………………….35 2.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: Al-Qaeda………………………………………..43 2.3 – The 9/11 Attacks: Facts, Causes and Consequences……………………………………52 2.4 – The US Involvement in the Middle East: The War on Terror………………………….61 CHAPTER 3: The Case of France: The Paris Attacks of November 13 3.1 – The French Intelligence Community…………………………………………………...73 3.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: The Islamic State………………………………..80 3.3 – The Paris Attacks of November 13: Facts, Causes and Consequences………………...90 3.4 – The French Involvement in the Middle East: Opération Chammal…………………….98