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The Russian Wake-Up Call to Europe

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The Russian Wake-Up Call to Europe The Russian wake-up call to Europe The Russian wake-up call to call The Russianwake-up This study analyses whether and how the three European great powers French, German and British security priorities – France, the UK and Germany – have reacted to and remodelled their respective security and defence policies to the current security threats, especially Russia’s challenge to the European security order. It also gives JOHAN EELLEND, NIKLAS H. ROSSBACH AND ANNA SUNDBERG valuable insights on how the three view their role in international security landscape and within multilateral organisations, such as the EU and NATO. The study has been produced within the Nordic and Transatlantic Security Europe Eell Johan Programme (NOTS) at FOI. NOTS studies security and military-strategic developments within three main areas: the Nordic and Baltic regions, the European major military powers and the foreign-, defence- and security policy of the United States. Defence economics, defence reform, capabilities and conditions for military operations in Northern Europe are also included in the f eld of study. Exercise patterns, different countries and relevant multilateral security organisations (NATO and EU) means of action of relevance to security in the Northern European region and end, Nik possible consequences for Sweden also forms part of the studies. las H. Rossbach las H.Rossbach and Anna Sundberg and Anna FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fi elds such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 555 030 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--4270--SE SE-164 90 Stockholm Fax: +46 8 555 031 00 ISSN 1650-1942 June 2016 Johan Eellend, Niklas H. Rossbach and Anna Sundberg The Russian wake-up call to Europe French, German and British security priorities Cover: IStockphoto Jim Pruitt FOI-R--4270--SE Titel Den ryska väckarklockan. Franska, tyska och brittiska säkerhetsprioriteringar Title The Russian wake-up call to Europe. French, German and British security priorities. Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--4270--SE Månad/Month Juni Utgivningsår/Year 2016 Antal sidor/Pages 157 ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartementet Forskningsområde Säkerhetspolitik FoT-område Projektnr/Project no A16102 Godkänd av/Approved by Lars Höstbeck Ansvarig avdelning Försvarsanalys Detta verk är skyddat enligt lagen (1960:729) om upphovsrätt till litterära och konstnärliga verk, vilket bl.a. innebär att citering är tillåten i enlighet med vad som anges i 22 § i nämnd lag. För att använda verket på ett sätt som inte medges direkt av svensk lag krävs särskild överenskommelse. This work is protected by the Swedish Act on Copyright in Literary and Artistic Works (1960:729). Citation is permitted in accordance with article 22 in said act. Any form of use that goes beyond what is permitted by Swedish copyright law requires the written permission of FOI. FOI-R--4270--SE Sammanfattning Denna studie analyser om och hur de tre europeiska stormakterna – Frankrike, Storbritannien och Tyskland – har förändrat sin respektive säkerhets- och försvarspolitik i förhållande till de aktuella säkerhetshoten, i synnerhet Rysslands förändrade säkerhetspolitiska agerande och militära uppbyggnad. Studien visar att Frankrike, Storbritannien och Tyskland betraktar Rysslands agerande som en allvarlig säkerhetspolitisk utmaning och de är alla engagerade i NATO:s militära återförsäkransåtgärder i Östersjöområdet. Den globala terrorismen betraktas dock som det främsta hotet och en stor del av deras uppmärksamhet och resurser är därmed riktade till säkerhetsutmaningarna på den södra flanken. Detta engagemang kan påverka NATO:s östra och norra flank eftersom stormakternas begränsade resurser inskränker deras militära och säkerhetspolitiska handlingsutrymme. De pågående militära reformerna kommer inte att förändra detta i närtid. Men samtidigt har Tyskland genom sitt geografiska läge och Storbritanniens genom sina åtaganden i NATO visat allt större uppmärksamhet mot säkerheten i Östersjöområdet. Frankrike är också fast beslutet att fortsätta sina åtaganden i regionen, om än i mindre utsträckning än vad som ursprungligen planerats. Gemensamt för Frankrike och Storbritannien är att de fortsätter att se sig själva som stormakter med global räckvidd - trots sina brister. De har därför svårt att göra strategiska val, mellan inre och yttre säkerhetshot och mellan olika geografiska områden. Genom sin roll i EU och som medlare i Ukraina, har Tyskland internationella roll stärkts och landet framstår som mer öppet för att använda militär medel som ett utrikespolitiskt verktyg. Nyckelord: Frankrike, Storbritannien, Tyskland, europeiska stormakter, Ryssland, Ukraina, säkerhetspolitik, försvarspolitik, hotuppfattning, EU, NATO, återförsäkransåtgärder. 3 FOI-R--4270--SE Summary This study analyses whether and how the three European great powers – France, the UK and Germany – have reacted to and remodelled their respective security and defence policies to the current security threats, especially Russia’s challenge to the European security order. Neither of the three views Russia as a direct threat to its territory or national security. The ongoing reforms in their defence and security policies are not triggered by Russia. Still, their understanding is that Russia has undermined the European security order and that its position has changed from being a partner to an internationally unreliable actor and a potential threat to their allies. France, the UK and Germany are all committed to NATO’s military reassurance in the Baltic Sea region. But it is terrorism that is the primary threat and part of their attention and resources is directed to the southern flank. This engagement may affect NATO’s eastern and northern flank since all three are militarily overstretched. Still, Germany is caught up with its commitment to Northern and Eastern Europe through its geographic location, the UK’s commitment to NATO have led to increased attention to Baltic security, and France is set to continue its engagements in the region, although to a lesser extent than originally planned. Common to France and the UK is their perception of great powers with global reach and finding it hard to make strategic choices. Germany international role has increased and the country seams more willing to use force as a foreign policy tool. Concerning the conflict in Ukraine, none of the three envisage a military solution. Diplomacy and negotiations are the way forward. Keywords: France, the UK, Germany, European great powers, Russia, Ukraine, security policy, defence policy, threat perception, EU, NATO, reassurance. 4 FOI-R--4270--SE 5 FOI-R--4270--SE Table of Contents Preface and Acknowledgements 8 Acronyms and Abbreviations 9 1 Introduction 10 1.1 Purpose and questions ................................................................... 11 1.2 Method and material ....................................................................... 12 1.3 Constraints of the study .................................................................. 13 1.4 A changing security climate ............................................................ 13 1.4 Guide to the contents ...................................................................... 16 2 France – Between North and South, and Everywhere 17 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 17 2.2 France and Russia .......................................................................... 18 2.2.1 A flexible view on Russia ............................................................ 18 2.2.2 Countering Russia – firm and pragmatic the way to go .............. 25 2.2.3 France and NATO’s reassurance – everything counts ............... 28 2.3 France in the world.......................................................................... 31 2.3.1 A solo player looking for partners ............................................... 33 2.3.2 France in EU and NATO – change under way? ......................... 39 2.4 Defence priorities ............................................................................ 43 2.4.1 Threat perceptions ...................................................................... 43 2.4.2 The defence budget .................................................................... 47 2.5 Trends and analysis ........................................................................ 51 3 Germany – A Long Farewell to Ostpolitik 56 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 56 3.1.1 The traditional principle of German foreign and security policy ........................................................................................... 56 6 FOI-R--4270--SE 3.2 Germany and Russia ....................................................................... 58 3.2.1 Views and relations ....................................................................
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