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Global Zero Commission on Nuclear Risk Reduction GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION April 2015 De-Alerting and Stabilizing the World’s Nuclear Force Postures GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION April 2015 De-Alerting and Stabilizing the World’s Nuclear Force Postures Copyright © 2015 by Global Zero All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, sorted in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written permission of the copyright holder. Global Zero assumes full responsibility for the analysis and recommendations contained in this report. www.globalzero.org GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION April 2015 Chair Gen. (Ret.) James E. CARTWRIGHT, Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Fmr. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staf, United States Members Amb. K. Shankar BAJPAI, Fmr. Chairman, National Security Advisory Board; Fmr. Secretary of the Ministry of External Afairs, India Amb. Richard BURT, Fmr. United States Chief Negotiator, Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Evgeny P. BUZHINSKY, Senior Vice President, PIR Center; Fmr. Head, International Treaty Directorate, Main Department of International Military Cooperation, Ministry of Defense, Russian Federation Amb. Ivo H. DAALDER, President, Te Chicago Council on Global Afairs; Fmr. Permanent Representative of the United States to NATO Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Vincent DESPORTES, Senior Military Advisor, Panhard General Defense; Fmr. Director of the Joint War College (College interarmée de defense, CID), France Adm. (Ret.) Giampaolo DI PAOLA, Fmr. Minister of Defence, Italy; Fmr. Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Mahmud Ali DURRANI, Fmr. National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Pakistan; Fmr. Ambassador of the Republic of Pakistan to the United States Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Vladimir DVORKIN, Main Researcher, Center of International Security, Te Institute for World Economy and International Relations; Fmr. Director, Research Institute No. 4, Ministry of Defense, Russian Federation Gen. (Ret.) Jehangir KARAMAT, Founder and Director, Spearhead Research; Fmr. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staf, Pakistan; Fmr. Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States Vice Adm. (Ret.) Yoji KODA, Fmr. Vice Admiral of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force Vice Adm. (Ret.) Verghese KOITHARA, Independent Strategic Analyst; Fmr. Vice Admiral, Indian Navy Amb. Yuji MIYAMOTO, Chairman of Miyamoto Institute of Asian Research; Fmr. Ambassador of Japan to China; Fmr. Director of Disarmament Afairs of the United Nations Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Afairs, Japan Gen. (Ret.) Klaus NAUMANN, Fmr. Chairman, NATO Military Committee; Fmr. Chief of Staf, Bundeswehr, German Armed Forces Gen. (Ret.) Bernard NORLAIN, President, Conseil d’Administration, Committee for the Study of National Defense; Fmr. Air Defense Commander and Air Combat Commander, French Air Force Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Osamu ONODA, Asia Center Fellow, Harvard University; Fmr. Lieutenant General, Japan Air Self Defense Force Maj. Gen. (Ret.) PAN Zhenqiang, Deputy Chairman, China Foundation for International Studies; Fmr. Director, Institute for Strategic Studies, National Defense University, China Amb. Tomas PICKERING, Fmr. Undersecretary of State for Political Afairs, United States; Fmr. Ambassador of the United States to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel, El Salvador, Nigeria, and Jordan Min. Paul QUILÈS, Fmr. Minister of Defense, Transport, Interior and Public Security, France Gen. (Ret.) Lord David RAMSBOTHAM, Fmr. Commander Field Army and Inspector General of the Territorial Army, United Kingdom Rt. Hon. Sir Malcolm RIFKIND, Fmr. Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Afairs; Fmr. Secretary of Defense, United Kingdom Amb. Yukio SATOH, Vice Chairman, Japan Institute of International Afairs; Fmr. Ambassador of Japan to the United Nations Gen. (Ret.) John J. SHEEHAN, Fmr. Commander in Chief, United States Atlantic Command Vice Adm. (Ret.) Vijay SHANKAR, Admiral Katari Chair of Excellence, United Services Institute India; Fmr. Commander in Chief of the Andaman and Nicobar Command; Fmr. Commander in Chief, Strategic Forces Command of India Min. SONG Min-soon, Chair Professor, Kyungnam University; Fmr. Minister of Foreign Afairs and Trade, Republic of Korea Air Chief Marshal (Ret.) Shashindra Pal TYAGI, Member, National Security Advisory Board; Fmr. Chief of the Air Staf, Indian Air Force Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Noboru YAMAGUCHI, Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan; Fmr. Commanding General of the Japan Ground Self Defense Force Research and Development Command Maj. Gen. YAO Yunzhu, Director, Center for China-America Defense Relations; Director, Academy of Military Science, People’s Liberation Army, People’s Republic of China Maj. Gen. ZHU Chenghu, Director General and Professor of Academic Department of Strategic Studies, National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army, People’s Republic of China Baron Karl-Teodor ZU GUTTENBERG, Fmr. Federal Minister of Defense; Fmr. Federal Minister of Economics and Technology, Federal Republic of Germany Advisor Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Uzi EILAM, Senior Research Fellow, Te Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University; Fmr. Director General of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission; Fmr. Chief Scientist and Director of Research and Development in the Ministry of Defense, Israel Study Director Dr. Bruce BLAIR, Co-Founder, Global Zero TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Overview 5 Introduction 12 Still An Anarchic System 15 Escalation: General Risk Factors 16 Escalation: Specifc Risk Factors Among the World’s Nuclear Postures 20 Toward Bilateral and Multilateral De-Alerting Agreements 37 De-Alerting and National Security Interests of Other Key Nations 39 A U.S.-Russia Executive Agreement to De-Alert Nuclear Forces 50 Overall Evaluation Based on Five Criteria 57 U.S.-Russia Joint Project on De-Alerting 62 Toward a Global Multilateral De-Alerting Agreement 62 De-Alerting and National Security Interests 69 21st Century Nuclear Strategy, Force Posture and Employment 70 Guidance of the United States TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Te Global Zero Commission on Nuclear Risk Reduction 85 Policy Recommendations 5 Appendix A: Illustrative De-Alerting Measures 91 12 Appendix B: Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Vladimir Dvorkin’s Draf 106 15 Executive Agreement 16 Appendix C: U.N. Resolutions and Working Papers 108 20 Appendix D: U.S.-Russian Memorandum of Agreement 114 on a Joint Data Exchange Center 37 Appendix E: Nuclear Weapons States: Military Incidents 116 39 Appendix F: Nuclear Weapons Arsenals by Country 132 50 57 62 62 69 70 GLOBAL ZERO COMMISSION ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION REPORT DE-ALERTING AND STABILIZING THE WORLD’S NUCLEAR FORCE POSTURES I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Troughout the nuclear age the development, deployment and operation of nuclear weapons purportedly adopted a set of “best practices” – policy prescriptions designed to An arc of potential nuclear instability stretches around the strengthen strategic stability, and a set of standards designed globe. From Central Europe through South Asia to Northeast to minimize the risks of their accidental, unauthorized, and Asia and into the seas surrounding China, the nuclear weap- inadvertent use, or thef. ons countries, or their close allies, are involved in geopolitical, territorial and other disputes that have the potential to erupt Foremost among the policy aims was survivability. Survivable and escalate. Under the right conditions, any of the hotspots forces and command, control, and communications were along this arc could expand by design or inadvertence into a necessary to project credible threats of second-strike retali- nuclear crisis. ation, considered the bedrock of nuclear deterrence. Besides underwriting deterrence, survivability would relieve the pres- Tis report identifes ways to control crisis escalation and re- sure to “use or lose” nuclear forces, thus extending the time duce the myriad risks of the deliberate or unintentional use of available for deliberation and increasing the latitude for re- nuclear weapons. It is both diagnostic in that it examines the sponding fexibly. risk of nuclear weapons use, as well as prescriptive in ofering some remedies. It discerns an overall pattern in which risks Second, sound nuclear policy dictated that national leaders are generally trending in the wrong direction in today’s secu- maintain frm and exclusive control over nuclear weapons at rity environment of proliferation, nuclear build-ups in Asia, all times to ensure that nuclear operations always carried out spreading extremism, burgeoning cyber warfare, exploitable their orders and intentions, and never carried out actions that nuclear command and control networks, vulnerable and in- were not intended. Tis policy aim demanded resilient com- secure nuclear weapons storage sites and delivery platforms mand and control capable of fexibly directing nuclear forces (particularly silo-based strategic missiles), and de-stabilizing to coherent national purpose in all peacetime and confict global military competition featuring rapid innovation in conditions. It also demanded high safety standards to prevent weapons technology and modalities of warfare. In the current accidental detonations and strict safeguards to prevent unau- environment, much needs to be done to reduce nuclear risks. thorized use. Te slope from a crisis to nuclear brinksmanship to escalation to the
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