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Nuñez Angles 5th International Seminar on Security and Defence in the Mediterranean Multi-Dimensional Security Reports (+34) 93 302 6495 - Fax. (+34) 93 302 6495 - [email protected] (+34) 93 302 6495 - Fax. [email protected] Weapons of mass destruction in the Mediterranean: An omnidirectional threat. Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde, Balder Hageraats and Ximena Valente - Calle Elisabets, 12 08001 Barcelona, España Tel. Fundación CIDOB WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: AN OMNIDIRECTIONAL THREAT Jesús A. Núñez Villaverde Co-director of the Institute of Studies on Conflicts and Humanitarian Action, IECAH Balder Hageraats Researcher at IECAH Ximena Valente Researcher at IECAH Introduction 1. Similar to the first report, the concept of WMD is used in its general understanding of having the Similarly to the first report on Weapons of mass destruction in the three basic components of nuclear, Mediterranean: current status and prospects, released in 2005, this chemical and biological weapons. In practical terms, however, the main second report (Weapons of mass destruction in the Mediterranean: an focus of this report is on nuclear omnidimensional threat) is the result of an initiative – responding to a weapons given that these are the sustained interest in matters of security and defence in the Mediterranean only ones that true fit the profile of WMD at the moment. - by the CIDOB Foundation. It is therefore fitting to mention the annual seminars on security and defence that are held in Barcelona since 2002. In line with the decision taken at the third of these meetings, the aim of this report is to facilitate – both for those attending the sessions directly as well as the wider security community interested in the region - the analysis of one of the most pressing problems on the international agenda. At the same time, the report is an attempt to stimulate debate and reflection on the related threats. This includes both the existing nuclear, biological and chemical programmes and arsenals as well as the worrisome attempts to obtain such weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by various state and non-state actors. It is with this in mind that the following pages are intended to serve as a continued effort to offer tools for policymaking as well as to deepen the understanding of the issues at hand. These issues strongly influence the image of a Mediterranean that is characterised by high levels of insecurity. On the one hand there are highly poisoned and openly violent situations such as in Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict, while on the other hand there are sources of tension. These make it difficult to imagine in the medium- term a fulfilment of the objective of the Barcelona Process to create a Euro-Mediterranean space of shared peace and prosperity. On the contrary, the main signals emanating from the region point toward a generalised deterioration which pushes the notion of a Mediterranean free of WMD even further away. This worsening of the situation seems especially true in the more complex South-South relationships, rather than those between the South and the North. Since the presentation of the last report, there has only been an increase in concern over WMD1 in the Mediterranean – understood from a security perspective as the space made up by the European Union (EU), Balkans and Russia in the north, and - in the south and east - the • 153 Maghreb, Near East and Middle East. Most attention during the past months has centred on the evolution of Iran’s nuclear programme –together with the crisis surrounding North Korea– and the efforts by the international community –led by the EU, or, more specifically, the UK, France and Germany, with explicit support by the United States (US)– to avoid Iran possessing military capabilities in this area. From a regional security perspective, it is hard to find a relevant fact that points towards a lessening of tensions. The conflicts in Iraq and the one between Israel and its Arab neighbours have only worsened, while there is still no solution for the situation in Western Sahara or for the shadows that surround the relations between neighbouring nations in the Maghreb. The structure for dialogue and the confidence measures that were started years ago have so far failed to sufficiently reduce the enormous gaps of inequality and high levels of instability that affect the region as a whole. Among these measures are both those initiated by NATO and by the EU –with the Process of Barcelona– and some countries of the southern coast, and which are already more than a decade old, as well as those of sub-regional order, such as the 5+5 Group. In general terms, however, not all dynamics that were identified in the first report have undergone significant changes. Consequently, rather than repeating the same analysis again for countries whose profile with regard to WMD has not substantially changed, the reader is referred to last year’s report and to the update of the main issues per country in Section IV of this present report. The first report already announced the aim of successively filling the gaps which were not covered then. Therefore it was decided that the structure of this second report would be as follows: 1) Provide analysis (Section I) of northern countries that either because of their WMD capacities (France and the United Kingdom) or global interests with obvious links to the region (United States) should form part of this research on WMD in the Mediterranean. 2) Dedicate special attention –even if it was already analysed in last year’s report– to the case of Iran (Section II) which remains the most obvious priority after the events of the last twelve months. 3) Study in greater detail (Section III) the threat of so-called nuclear international terrorism which is nowadays considered –albeit not always backed-up by sufficient facts– to be one of the principal threats to international security. The report is completed by an Appendix (Section V) which contains a list of acronyms used in this text, a detailed chronology of Iran’s nuclear programme, and a list of internet sites related to the subject and which serves as an addition to the bibliographical references in Section VII of the first report. It is to be hoped that, in a future report, regional initiatives of non- proliferation will merit a whole section dedicated to them. This would be an indication that there exists a common political will to free the region from some arsenals and programmes that, rather than guaranteeing the security of separate countries, only contribute in increasing the insecurity of the whole. At the moment there is nothing worth adding to the report from 2005. At the global level, the conference on revision of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has demonstrated the enormous difficulties that exist in overcoming related obstacles in order to advance the agenda. At a regional level, it has 154 WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: AN OMNIDIRECTIONAL THREAT • been for a long time already that the differences in perception between Israelis, Arabs and Persians make it impossible to integrate the issue into the agenda for Mediterranean security. The analysis in this report is framed within an environment of international security that remains dominated by the badly-named “war on terror”, spearheaded by the US. It is within this framework that WMD proliferation, together with international terrorism, is identified as the two main threats that hang above our heads. It is also in this model that multilateral approaches to deal with global threats, identified after the Cold War, have been neglected. These threats themselves have also been largely ignored in order to give way to unilateral and militaristic methods. The problems worsen even further after detecting a clear preference of counter-proliferation methods –which are basically centred on the use of force and coercion– rather than strengthening non-proliferation –turned towards instruments of international law and political agreements. Concern also grows after finding that important state actors such as the US are repositioning their own nuclear strategies in order to make them into weapons for combat situations. Finally, there is an insistence on using double standards for evaluating different actors (India, Pakistan, Israel, and even North Korea). By considering that the problem is not so much possessing nuclear weapons in the first place but rather the profile of the owner, this only serves to feed the negative comparisons that cause others (Iran being the most obvious example) to accelerate the process of obtaining them themselves. In spite of the short time that has passed since the beginning of the implementation of this strategy –initiated by the US– it seems already sufficient in order to conclude that it is an inadequate tool. This is not only because it fails to effectively respond to problems such as poverty, exclusion, pandemics or environmental degradation –all real international security threats– but also to deal with the two main threats identified above which have turned into obsessions that are badly understood and managed even worse. Together with the persistent negative contamination that the “war on terror” provokes in the area of WMD in the Mediterranean region, the other starting points and influences that were identified in the first report remain valid. There is therefore no need to repeat them again, but they should be taken as principal factors that explain the pages that follow. It is with this in mind and with the final goal of ultimately achieving a Mediterranean that is free of WMD that this present report aims to contribute to promoting a climate of greater transparency, mutual confidence, and to raise awareness about a subject matter that is usually shrouded in secrecy and has the potential to worsen even more the regional relations that are clearly in need of improvement.
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