Order Code RL30427 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries Updated March 5, 2004 Andrew Feickert Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries Summary This report provides a current inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles throughout the world and discusses implications for U.S. national security policy. (Note: the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Terms Reference Handbook defines a ballistic missile as “ a missile that is guided during powered flight and unguided during free flight when the trajectory that it follows is subject only to the external influences of gravity and atmospheric drag” and a cruise missile as “a long-range, low-flying guided missile that can be launched from air, sea, and land.”) Ballistic and cruise missile development and proliferation continue to pose a threat to United States national security interests both at home and abroad. While approximately 16 countries currently produce ballistic missiles, they have been widely proliferated to many countries - some of whom are viewed as potential adversaries of the United States. Nineteen countries produce cruise missiles which are also widely proliferated and many analysts consider cruise missile proliferation to be of more concern than that of ballistic missile proliferation, primarily due to their low threshold of use, availability and affordability, and accuracy. This report will be updated annually. With the fall of Iraq, many analysts see North Korean and Iranian missile and WMD programs as the primary “rogue nation” long-range ballistic missile threat to U.S. national security. Russia and China continue to be the only two countries that could conceivably attack the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with nuclear weapons but improved relationships with both countries have done a great deal to diminish this threat over the past decades. India’s and Pakistan’s ongoing missile development programs is viewed by many analysts as highly aggressive and even provocative, but is generally viewed on a regional context as opposed to a direct threat to the United States. The renewal of dialogue between these two countries in an attempt to settle their disputes by diplomatic means may also help in slowing missile proliferation as well as preventing their potential use in this region. The implications of ballistic and cruise missile proliferation to the United States has necessitated both nonproliferation and counterproliferation approaches in trying to stem the development and deployment and export of missiles. Past Administrations have been characterized as nonproliferation-oriented by some analysts while the current Bush Administration is viewed by some as having abandoned nonproliferation for a more action-oriented counterproliferation approach towards missiles. Other experts have suggested that the United States must somehow find the right balance between missile nonproliferation and counterproliferation policies if meaningful, long-term progress is to be made. While some believe that missile proliferation can be “rolled back”by some combination of these approaches, others note that both ballistic and cruise missiles have become such an integral part of many countries’ national security frameworks that it is highly unlikely that countries will abandon their programs in deference to U.S. and Western pressure. Contents Introduction ......................................................1 Missile Production and Development Facilities ......................2 Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Warheads........................3 The Demand for Missiles and WMD ..............................4 Status of Missile Proliferation........................................4 Russia.......................................................6 China .......................................................7 North Korea..................................................9 Iran........................................................16 Iraq .......................................................18 India.......................................................20 Pakistan ....................................................21 Cruise Missiles...............................................22 Implications.....................................................24 U.S. Counter and Nonproliferation Policy ..............................25 Appendix 1. Ballistic and Land Attack Cruise Missile Inventory ............27 List of Figures Figure 1. North Korean Short and Medium Range Missile Capabilities .......13 Figure 2. Potential North Korean Long-Range Missile Capabilities ..........14 Figure 3. Ranges of Iran’s Missiles...................................24 Figure 4. Ranges of Missiles in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Iraq...............27 List of Tables Table 1. Missiles by Categories of Range ...............................6 Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries Introduction Foreign ballistic and cruise missiles pose a potential threat to the national security interests of the United States. While weapons of mass destruction (WMD) can be delivered by a variety of means including aircraft, artillery, and asymmetric means, it is missile-delivered WMDs that garner the most domestic and international political attention. Countries with a WMD missile capability have the potential to influence the actions of other countries in their regions or even countries on another continent and, in some cases, destroy population centers and national infrastructure. At the present time, the United States is within range of the ballistic missiles of Russia, China, and perhaps North Korea, as well as France and the United Kingdom. Several other countries have missiles within range of U.S. overseas facilities and interests. A number of countries are attempting to either procure or develop longer- range ballistic missiles to accurately deliver WMDs over great distances and many fear that one day such an attack may be launched against the United States by a regional power or rogue state where stringent political and military controls over these weapons are not exercised. Estimates of the missile threat to the United States continue to be controversial for a number of reasons. One reason is that many missile programs have moved underground in some countries and can also be hidden in a country’s civilian space or aerospace industry, making it much harder for intelligence organizations to track development. Also, as countries increasingly share intelligence about missile proliferation, different estimates about range, operational capability, and possible payloads lead to conflicting views.1 There is also some controversy still surrounding the 1995 National Intelligence Estimate and 1998's Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (P.L. 104-201) also known as the Rumsfeld Commission Report. Even in 2003 and 2004, the Rumsfeld Commission Report continues to be the open source benchmark for missile proliferation, despite numerous developments in missile programs world-wide. While there is still some disagreement about the extent of the missile threat, the Bush Administration’s unwavering commitment to ballistic missile defense, withdrawal from the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and the December 2002 Presidential 1 An example of this is Iran’s Shahab-3 missile. U.S. intelligence believes that the range is about 800 miles, qualifying it as a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) while the head of the Israeli Mossad reportedly told the NATO North Alliance Council in June of 2002 that the Shahab-3's range was closer to 1,860 miles qualifying it as an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM). CRS-2 Directive to begin fielding the initial set of ballistic missile defense capabilities continues to overshadow many of the contentious issues related to the missile threat. Recent estimates released by the U.S. Intelligence Community vary little from those issued in the late 1990s. Iran is still assessed as being capable of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)2 capable of reaching the United States by 2015 3 although in the 1995 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) most intelligence agencies believed that this could happen before 2015. The NIE also cites North Korea as posing an ICBM threat to the United States before 2015. Likewise, North Korea’s ballistic missile development time lines may need to be re-evaluated as new missile programs have been made public. While not posing a direct threat to the United States, the proliferation of shorter range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles has resulted in heightened regional tensions in the Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and between China and Taiwan. Missile Production and Development Facilities One significant trend is the increasing number of missile production and development facilities. Sixteen countries are known to produce ballistic missiles: the United States, France, Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Egypt, Syria, Ukraine, and Argentina. Several other countries, including Germany, Japan, Great Britain, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina, could produce ballistic missiles but have chosen not to. When a country has a missile production facility, its