Il Caucaso Transizione Politica Ed Economica

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Il Caucaso Transizione Politica Ed Economica UNIVERSITA’ DEGLI STUDI DI CAGLIARI IL CAUCASO TRANSIZIONE POLITICA ED ECONOMICA UNA ANALISI TRANSFRONTALIERA Michele Brunelli DOTTORATO IN STORIA, ISTITUZIONI E RELAZIONI INTERNAZIONALI DELL’AFRICA E DELL’ASIA MODERNA E CONTEMPORANEA XX CICLO Tutor: Ch.mo Prof. Emilio Bottazzi SPS/14 – Storia ed Istituzioni dell’Asia INDICE INTRODUZIONE ..........................................................................................................................1 1. PREMESSA METODOLOGICA ....................................................................................................2 1.1 Metodologia di analisi della transizione politica ............................................................2 1.2 Metodologia di analisi della transizione economica....................................................15 1.3 Il problema delle fonti.....................................................................................................15 2. L’IDENTIFICAZIONE DELL’AREA GEOGRAFICA D’INDAGINE ...........................................16 3. IL FENOMENO DELLA TRANSIZIONE NELLE SUA DUPLICE COMPONENTE ECONOMICA E POLITICA..................................................................................................................................................19 4. LA DIMENSIONE STORICA.......................................................................................................20 Il retaggio sovietico in Transcaucasia ..................................................................................23 1. LA TRANSIZIONE POLITICA ............................................................................................29 La via verso il golpe. La strada verso la dissoluzione........................................................32 1.1 IL COLLASSO DELL’UNIONE SOVIETICA E LE RIPERCUSSIONI SULLE PERIFERIE DELL’IMPERO..........................................................................................................................................36 Nuove indipendenze, vecchie rivoluzioni ...............................................................................38 Il caso georgiano.....................................................................................................................38 Le elezioni del 1990................................................................................................................42 La Rivoluzione delle Rose.....................................................................................................48 L’Armenia................................................................................................................................51 L’Azerbaijan ............................................................................................................................59 1.2 IL RISVEGLIO DELL’ETHNOS ................................................................................................66 Le etnie nella Transcaucasia..................................................................................................72 I gruppi etnici in Georgia..................................................................................................74 I gruppi etnici in Armenia.................................................................................................76 I gruppi etnici in Azerbaijan.............................................................................................78 1.3 LA TORTUOSA VIA VERSO LA DEMOCRATIZZAZIONE: DEMOCRAZIE COMPIUTE O “FAILED STATES”?..................................................................................................................................80 1.1 Grado di controllo del proprio territorio da parte dello Stato. L’integrità territoriale81 L’integrità territoriale georgiana.......................................................................................81 L’integrità territoriale armena ed azera ...........................................................................86 1.2 Controllo sui propri confini e controllo del territorio.....................................................87 Il controllo sui propri confini: Georgia ..........................................................................87 Il controllo sui propri confini: Armenia .........................................................................88 i Il controllo sui propri confini: Azerbaijan......................................................................89 1.3 I conflitti violenti ..................................................................................................................89 I conflitti violenti in Georgia............................................................................................90 L’Ossezia del Sud ...................................................................................................................90 Il conflitto nel “paese dell’Anima”.......................................................................................93 I conflitti violenti in Armenia ed in Azerbaijan.............................................................99 Il Nagorno-Karabakh: una regione per due Stati.............................................................100 1.4 Privatizzazione della violenza e 1.5 Stato e struttura della sicurezza nazionale.........106 La privatizzazione della violenza in Georgia................................................................109 La struttura della sicurezza nazionale in Georgia........................................................112 La privatizzazione della violenza in Armenia ..............................................................116 La struttura della sicurezza nazionale in Armenia.......................................................117 La privatizzazione della violenza in Azerbaijan...........................................................120 La struttura della sicurezza nazionale in Azerbaijan ...................................................121 1.6 Tassi di criminalità..............................................................................................................125 L’andamento della criminalità in Georgia ....................................................................126 L’andamento della criminalità in Armenia ...................................................................131 L’andamento della criminalità in Azerbaijan................................................................132 1.7 Abuso di potere da parte dello Stato ...............................................................................137 L’abuso di potere da parte dello Stato georgiano........................................................137 Tutela dei gruppi religiosi minoritari .................................................................................138 L’abuso di potere da parte dello Stato armeno............................................................139 Tutela dei gruppi religiosi minoritari .................................................................................140 L’abuso di potere da parte dello Stato azero................................................................140 1.8 Livello dell’influenza esterna.............................................................................................141 Il livello dell’influenza esterna in Georgia....................................................................142 Il livello dell’influenza esterna in Armenia...................................................................151 Il livello dell’influenza esterna in Azerbaijan ...............................................................153 Le pressioni russe sul Caucaso dai territori della Federazione ..................................154 Legittimità e funzione della supremazia della Legge dello Stato........................................156 2.1 Ampiezza del fenomeno della corruzione e del clientelismo.......................................157 Corruzione e clientelismo in Georgia ...........................................................................159 Corruzione e clientelismo in Armenia ..........................................................................162 Corruzione e clientelismo in Azerbaijan.......................................................................163 ii 2.2 Il processo elettorale e la dimensione dei brogli elettorali............................................166 Il processo elettorale in Georgia....................................................................................166 Il processo elettorale in Armenia...................................................................................170 Il processo elettorale in Azerbaijan ...............................................................................172 2.3 Sostegno al regime..............................................................................................................175 Il sostegno al regime in Georgia....................................................................................175 Il sostegno al regime in Armenia...................................................................................177 Il sostegno al regime in Azerbaijan ...............................................................................179 2.4 La garanzia dei diritti civili e dei diritti umani ................................................................180 La garanzia dei diritti civili e dei diritti umani in Georgia..........................................180 La garanzia dei diritti civili e dei diritti umani in Armenia.........................................181 La garanzia dei diritti
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