EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

DELHI THE HINDU 10 EDITORIAL MONDAY, MAY 27, 2019 EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE The making of the 2019 verdict Voters want someone who will protect them from insecurities flowing from the new economy and globalisation Narendra Modi who had held pow­ dia, contract labour was cial esteem, the politics of frustra­ er for more than 12 continuous introduced in the organised work­ tion and social envy have been years in Gujarat before he became ing class. This generated tremen­ harnessed to a project of xeno­ Facing the debacle Prime Minister. Three, authoritar­ dous insecurity. Public enterprises phobic nationalism. In this mood Congress’s stocktaking must be deeper than ian populist leaders prefer to were privatised and workers were of nationalism anyone who is not speak directly to an inchoate and thrown onto the street. Here they like us becomes the enemy who an off­the­cuff take on Rahul Gandhi Neera Chandhoke slippery entity called ‘the people’ joined the ranks of the unorgan­ has appropriated land and re­ n light of the Congress’s dismal defeat in the 17th than through reported speeches ised working class whose lives are sources. Even if a majority of In­ general election, Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s and questioning in Parliament or blighted by anxiety. Where is the dians are not directly involved in great deal has been already press conferences. Four, populist next mess of porridge going to hate crimes against minorities, offer to resign from his party post at the Congress I said and written on the leaders dismiss groups, such as come from? India transited to the they do not sympathise with the Working Committee on Saturday was on expected lines. Aspectacular victory of the immigrants and minorities, as service sector, but in the lower le­ victims of these crimes against hu­ What came as a surprise is the indication that he was Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), or non­people. Five, authoritarian vels of these enterprises, young manity. And the few who carry out seemingly unmoved by the CWC resolution that urged rather Prime Minister Narendra populists eschew the niceties of G. RAMAKRISHNA people are not promised security candlelight processions to protest him to continue as president and restructure the party. Modi in the 2019 general election, public debate, which is expected both processes were formally of jobs, they can be sacked at the against any intolerance are labeled Either way, whether Mr. Gandhi finally insists on quit­ why he won, and why the Con­ to be civil and heedful of the sensi­ launched in 1991. The process that drop of a hat. On balance, the in perverse ways. Our own people ting or allows himself to be persuaded otherwise, the gress lost so badly. Still the results bilities of other participants. They was initiated in the late 1980s was working people live in unstable became strangers in their own occasion surprise. Mr. Modi head­ have contempt for politically cor­ marked by the rollback of the wel­ conditions. land. The poet Firaq Gorakhpuri party cannot look away from a dilemma that has sha­ ed the government during a pe­ rect language. They provoke and fare state by Ronald Reagan in the There is no doubt that the de­ had famously written: Sar Zamine­ dowed it for long: the double­edged sword of the dynas­ riod of major job losses, a serious insult. They delight in breaking ev­ U.S., and Margaret Thatcher in the regulation of the economy benefit­ e­Hind par aqwam­e­alam ke Firaq/ ty. Devoid of a coherent ideology or organisational agrarian crisis, marginalisation of ery taboo. U.K. For them an unfettered mar­ ed sections of people who man­ Kafile baste rahe/Hindostan banta structure, especially over the past two decades, the the minorities, and polarisation of Because they speak as they will ket was the answer to all pro­ aged to make the transition to new gaya (India was created as a plural Nehru­Gandhi dynasty has remained the party’s ce­ society. And yet he was re­elected and how they will, authoritarian blems. The mythology of the mar­ modes of technology and new society by successive waves of mi­ menting glue. The family is projected as the party’s to power. What is the secret of his populists are disorienting. Opposi­ ket was once again reasserted, its ways of working. But in the pro­ gration). Today people whose an­ emotional currency with the public and the Gandhi sur­ appeal to voters across class and tion leaders found it impossible to injustices were forgotten. cess, inequality between classes cestors settled in this land, whose name is invoked to hark back to the formative years of caste? keep pace with Mr. Modi’s rapidly deepened to an alarming extent. labour was mixed with the land to changing rhetoric. Despite the ma­ Checking the market Among those who had been left create wealth, and who became a modern India. However, now in 2019, facing its tough­ A worldwide trend ny errors that he committed when Karl Polanyi had in The Great out, it generated both aspirations part of the earth when they died est crisis, the Congress must address the question un­ Over the past five years we see a campaigning, the Opposition Transformation (1944) told us that for better lifestyles and resent­ are characterised as foreigners. flinchingly, and in depth, if it is to refresh itself as a pol­ worldwide trend — for example in simply could not respond adeq­ the market is based on exploitative ment at the glittering life styles of Mr. Modi’s strongman image is itical force. The decline of the Congress is symptomatic the U.S., Russia, Turkey, the Phi­ uately, or in time. He shifted from social relations, it dislocates peo­ the affluent. Insecurity, combined reassuring to people wracked by of the fading appeal of the old ways of conducting polit­ lippines, Hungary, Poland, and “chowkidar” to Balakot, and non­ ple and leads to misery. The coun­ with aspirations and resentment, both anxiety and aspirations. It is ics and of the disenchantment with opaque and unac­ Brazil — of a shift to a mode of pol­ BJP leaders had just no time to ask ter­movement to suffering caused engendered the politics of desire the same case in other parts of the countable power­wielding by political dynasties. Also, itics known as authoritarian popu­ an important question, how on by the market was the rise of work­ and social envy. world. Researchers tell us that to­ lism. Populist leaders are not anti­ earth did the Pulwama attack hap­ ing­class struggles. These move­ It was a mixture of these com­ day the working class votes for as with the Left and Mandal parties, the Congress has democratic, they are elected often pen? Mr. Modi raised his arms, all ments managed to re­embed the bustible sentiments that were ar­ right­wing populists. Matters are collectively failed to upgrade its message, modes of out­ with huge mandates. Once they fire and brimstone, and practically market in the state. Someone had ticulated by new forms of music, not very different in India. Once reach and organisational structures. But the Congress’s are elected, authoritarian popu­ threatened the use of nuclear wea­ to be in charge of the market, so­ such as rap. This mix was also we had a social democratic state, success in nimbly facing up to the rout is vital if India is lists disdain institutions and pro­ pons. Everyone kept quiet. The meone had to be responsible for tapped by authoritarian populist now we have an authoritarian po­ to have a coherent political opposition that keeps the cesses that act as brakes on the ex­ quintessential authoritarian popu­ the depredations wreaked by this leaders. They drew upon rage pulist leader who might protect government of the day democratically accountable. ercise of power — civil society, a list rides rough shod over consis­ institution. The market could not against elites, and they initiated a his people, but who has no pa­ Of course, Congress leaders argue that the party free media, separation of powers, tency or decorum. He presents be left alone, it would destroy so­ backlash against inherited privi­ tience with the tedious processes and a judiciary. They are impatient himself as a strong leader, breaks cial and economic life. leges. Above all, we saw that popu­ of parliamentary democracy. Tho­ would disintegrate if Mr. Gandhi were to quit. Mr. Gand­ with the intricate and laborious conventions and makes his own Postcolonial elites tried to con­ list leaders drew upon resentment mas Hobbes had written in the hi, who had once likened power to poison, must take processes of democratic gover­ rules. trol market processes that had to build up xenophobic national­ 17th century that all people want full responsibility for his party’s debacle. However, fi­ nance. They prefer to concentrate Why do electorates in democra­ been monopolised by imperial ism. And we witnessed with some self­preservation. They are willing guring out the form that this account­taking must as­ power in their corporeal person. cies opt for rule by a strong man? powers. But in the 1990s the mar­ sadness the retreat of progressive to give up their rights to a Leviath­ sume is what makes it a difficult moment for him and Two, authoritarian leaders gar­ Perhaps they look for someone ket acquired dominance and legiti­ politics. an in exchange for security. We the Congress. Whether Mr. Gandhi sticks to his resolve ner power by attacking existing who will protect them against the macy. This time there was no continue to vote for Leviathans. to quit or not, the party will have to go through a pro­ elites as corrupt. They themselves continuing insecurities that liber­ working class to counter the ideol­ Firaq’s caution might be a part of this elite — recol­ alisation and globalisation have ogy and the practices of this sys­ Fuzzy class positions and insecuri­ Neera Chandhoke is a former Professor of cess of revitalisation that deals with the hollowing out lect a wealthy Donald Trump or a brought in their wake. In India tem. It had been decimated. In In­ ties, desire for a better life and so­ Political Science at Delhi University of its intra­party democracy. Any organisational reform that does not decentralise decision­making and fix ac­ FROM THE READERS’ EDITOR countability at all levels is bound to fail. It must involve a frank assessment of the Congress’s risk of failing to cohere if Mr. Gandhi were to abruptly leave his post as Electoral outcomes don’t alter the purpose of journalism party president. True, the Congress may well be able to sustain itself without a dynast. But unless the new lea­ Journalists should regain their sense of pride to pose probing questions and to speak truth to power dership emerges through a truly democratic exercise, countries regarded as safe, where outside... The purpose of journal­ periodic broadcast, “Mann Ki and is truly independent of the dynasty, any half­heart­ journalists can work in complete ism is thus to provide citizens with Baat”, and this is obviously yield­ ed restructuring will only lead to the enfeeblement of security, even as authoritarian re­ the information they need to make ing political dividends. But, as the the party. A dynasty­free Congress will surely invigorate gimes continue to tighten their the best possible decisions about head of the largest democracy in the Indian polity, but a Congress­free polity could well grip on the media. The Index also their lives, their communities, the world, there is a need to con­ prove dangerous for Indian democracy. downgrades India by two ranks — their societies, and their govern­ stantly interact with the larger A.S. Panneerselvan from 138 to140 — because “critics ments.” news media and not some select of Hindu nationalism were brand­ The political climate is not hos­ players alone. An open press con­ ed as ‘anti­Indian’ in online harass­ tile to the idea of the credible­in­ ference in which unscripted ques­

Fire and laissez-faire his newspaper’s editorial, ment campaigns and six journal­ GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO formational function of the news tions are encouraged would be a Fix accountability for Surat tragedy, and “For a rediscovery of India” ists were murdered in 2018”. gative. And there is an often con­ media. But, there is a chilling inti­ welcome departure. There is a update the fire safety protocol countrywide T(May 24, 2019), was not only flicting demand between what is midating environment when it need to reverse tendencies to un­ about Narendra Modi’s return to Some of the basics in public interest and what the pu­ comes to the second function — of dermine the salient features of the he deadly fire in a Surat coaching centre that re­ power but also about the funda­ On the question of governance, blic is interested in. Hence, it is im­ being critical­analytical­investiga­ Right to Information Act. Pulitzer­ sulted in the death of 22 young people highlights mentals of journalism. The edito­ the editorial was unequivocal in portant for not onlyjournalists but tive. From SLAPPs, (Strategic Law­ Prize winning historian Ron Cher­ Tthe gap between India’s dreamy visions of smart rial pointed out the most impor­ expecting the Prime Minister to also citizens to know the purpose suit Against Public Participation), now summaris ed, in one sen­ cities and the cruel reality of urban chaos and lawless­ tant retreat we are witnessing in walk the talk of “ sabka saath, sab­ of journalism. to draconian criminal defamation tence, the prevailing media envi­ ness. Images of students leaping from the blazing build­ the body polity: “In recess, if not ka vikas (with all, development for For years, Bill Kovach and Tom laws and denial of crucial access, ronment during a White House in irreversible decline, is the idea all)”. It hoped that “Mr. Modi’s se­ Rosenstiel, the authors of the de­ multiple devices are deployed to Correspondents Association din­ ing in a bid to escape will remain imprinted on the pu­ of India that had grown from the cond term will be more inclusive fining textbook, The Elements of blunt efforts to hold those in pow­ ner last month : “We now have to blic consciousness; many more teenagers were freedom movement, and had pre­ than the first, which was marred Journalism, have been exploring er accountable. Let us not forget fight hard for basic truths that we hopelessly overpowered by the flames within the pre­ vailed for most part of the history by arrogant pride and hateful pre­ the purpose of journalism. For that India has the ignominy of fi­ once took for granted.” mises, while a lucky few escaped with their lives. These of the Republic.” judice”. Before attempting to ad­ them, the purpose is not defined guring in the Global Impunity In­ Journalists should not be apolo­ young Indians are the latest victims of a culture of lais­ There is a disturbing retreat in dress the crucial question of what by technology, nor by journalists dex, which is computed by the getic but instead regain their sense sez­faire urbanisation that city governments have bred the information and media sphere we, as citizens, expect from the or the techniques they employ. Committee to Protect Journalists of pride to pose probing ques­ and which the courts allow to be pursued without sev­ too. For instance, the World Press media in general, and The Hindu in The principles and purpose of every year, over the last decade. tions, to demand accountability, Freedom Index for 2019 compiled particular during Mr. Modi’s se­ journalism are defined by someth­ to seek answers, and to speak ere penalties. India’s abysmal record on fire safety is re­ by Reporters Without Borders cond term, I would like to list out ing more basic: the function news What would be welcome truth to power. Because that is not flected in the death of 17,700 people countrywide in (RSF) has documented “how some of the fundamentals of jour­ plays in the lives of people. They As Prime Minister during his first only the purpose of journalism but fires in both public and residential buildings during hatred of journalists has degener­ nalism. Media scholars identify write: “News is that part of com­ term, Mr. Modi may have deve­ also the reason for journalism to 2015, according to the latest available data from the Na­ ated into violence, contributing to two major functions for the news munication that keeps us in­ loped a direct communication survive as a discipline. tional Crime Records Bureau. Periodically, high­profile an increase in fear”. It points to a media: the credible­informational formed of the changing events, is­ channel with the people through cases such as the Uphaar cinema blaze in Delhi that steady decline in the number of and the critical­analytical­investi­ sues, and characters in the world his social media handles and his [email protected] killed 59 people in 1997, and the Kumbakonam school fire in Tamil Nadu in 2004 in which 94 children per­ LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials. ished shock the nation, but even these are not strong enough to persuade governments to make fire safety Getting off the ropes which has been its primary BJP’s jaw­dropping victory Even if she had lost, it would exists in the first place. It will flout safety norms in almost the priority it should be. Neither has prolonged, aggres­ The Congress has been strength right from its that there is still a lot of have still sent a powerful be a mistake to seek and every field and occupation. sive litigation by the affected families in the Uphaar case decimated but there is still origin. It may be a bit too latent support for the message to the party rank confirm the existence of an One needs to praise Ketan made a difference, because the criminal culpability of hope for revival (Editorial much to expect the Congress, at least among and file that she is willing to overarching pull factor that Jorawadia for his quick the administrative machinery and officials who sanc­ page, “No easy solutions for Congress to relinquish its many of us old­time readers pick up any gauntlet. Life is drew voters towards the thinking. tioned unsafe buildings, often in return for bribes, re­ the Congress”, May 25). The dynastic leadership (Page 1, of this daily (I am 88) who about fighting the odds, ruling party. The pre­ and A. Jainulabdeen, base of the grand old party “CWC rejects Rahul’s offer grew up with the Congress. I which the BJP’s Smriti Irani post­poll surveys pointed to Chennai mains largely unaddressed. has been chipped away by to quit, asks him to wonder whether Rahul has proven. The Congress the high level of trust that The Surat fire cannot be called an accident, since the BJP and regional parties overhaul party”, May 26). Gandhi is even aware of his must remember that in 2024, large segments of society The precursor there are reports of notices having been served to the over a period of time and The leadership should get party’s great legacy. The 10 crore new voters will be reposed in the leadership of I wonder why the captioned builder on the risks, but not pursued by the Fire De­ the party has made rid of its coterie­guided Congress does not belong to added. Can it connect with Mr. Modi. The other article, “When rage became partment. Civic officials have displayed unforgivable in­ absolutely no effort to functioning and develop a the Nehru­Gandhi family them in terms of its great troubling finding is the claim terror” (Magazine, May 26, difference, since two deaths occurred in another coach­ rebuild the organisational regional­local leadership. alone. It belongs to the rest legacy? that Mr. Modi’s first term was pp 6­9), did not find it ing centre in the city late last year. That tragedy should base. The situation has Kosaraju Chandramouli, of India too as it represents C.H. Subramanian, “marred by arrogant pride relevant to make even a become so dismal that even Hyderabad values that are still dear to us Pune and hateful prejudice”. This passing reference to the role have led to a comprehensive review of public buildings. when it formulated an in this great country. appears to be a sweeping played by majoritarian The present inquiry into the disaster should go into any attractive welfare scheme, ■ The time has come for the If the Congress is to rebuild Mandate and after denunciation that can be policies (in the name of deviations from the sanctioned plan for the commercial the party failed to Congress party to regain its itself, it needs to stay away The editorial, “For a countered. Despite his democracy) followed by building housing the coaching centre, and the role of communicate its political legacy. The party from ‘power­point rediscovery of India” (May popularity, no Prime successive governments in urban planning officials in allowing it to come up. Ulti­ significance to voters. lacks leadership. In the presentations’. There must 24), has tossed a new Minister in independent Sri Lanka for decades. mately, litigation on fire disasters goes to the courts, Going forward, it needs to current political scenario, be mass contact programmes catchword into the BJP’s India has been as viciously Wasn’t this directly the cause and it is essential for the judiciary to send out the mes­ rebuild the party from the there is no leader in the in parliamentary camp: “sabka vishwas (the targeted by his opponents as of Tamil dissatisfaction sage that there will be no tolerance to corruption and village level. State and Congress who can match Mr. constituencies. This is the trust of all).” Despite the Mr. Modi, sometimes which severely rocked the district level leaders who Modi in terms of oration and strategy that the BJP has editorial’s attempt to strike a overstepping the boundaries country and in all probability evasion in the enforcement of building rules and fire sa­ are in touch with the presence. Moreover, the fine­tuned to its advantage. It balance between uncritical of decorum. created a fertile breeding fety. Beyond suspending a few officials and filing cases people should be Congress’s secularism has also needs to have a strategy praise and fair criticism, one V.N. Mukundarajan, ground for those macabre against the building owners, there is a need to make an encouraged rather than taken a beating. Unless there for the short, medium and feels that the purported Thiruvananthapuram and destructive thoughts to example of sanctioning and enforcement authorities. parachuting ‘Made in Delhi’ are new ideas and ideals, the long term. Finally, I feel objectivity seems marred by enter the minds of those The unwavering message must be that Indians demand leaders. The party Congress, or for that matter Amethi was lost after Mr. two sweeping and Surat fire whose motivations and accountability. Mandating compulsory insurance for all president should tour the any other Opposition party Gandhi announced his unambiguous assertions. The fire accident at a actions the article seeks to public buildings against fire risk and public liability can country extensively in the in India, cannot even dream decision to contest from One is attributing the coaching centre in Surat analyse? It has profound next five years and of dislodging the BJP. Wayanad. Whatever the spin outcome to an “electoral reminds me of a similar lessons for how we in India bring about a change to the way architects and builders understand the problems of C. Sambasivam being given to the decision, endorsement of Hindutva or incident in 2004 at manage our society and approach the question of safety, since the insurer the common people. Mettur dam, Tamil Nadu the perception was that he Hindu nationalism”. I don’t Kumbakonam, Tamil Nadu politics. would require a reduction of risk and compliance with Further, the party should was “running away”. think many people who (“Surat coaching centre Sushil Prasad, building plans. At least, that would be a start to rewrit­ eschew its soft Hindutva ■ It is evident from some of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra voted for the BJP will even owner held after fire, toll Hyderabad ing India’s shameful record on fire safety. strategy to counter the BJP the letters that have been should have also contested remotely be aware that such now 22”, May 26). It is more letters online: and re­embrace secularism, published ever since the against the Prime Minister. an ideological world view common practice in India to www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/

CM A ND-NDE YK EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

THE HINDU DELHI MONDAY, MAY 27, 2019 VERDICT 2019 11 EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE One saffron, four outliers Barring Karnataka, the BJP has been halted by a different political vehicle in each of the southern States

Sandeep Shastri dia (Marxist)­led LDF. Vote share dif­ ferences between the alliances are just a few percentage points. This The 2019 Lok Sabha election results time, the UDF got more seats. The in the south present an interesting LDF faced anger for its stand on the contrast to the rest of the country. Supreme Court judgment on Sabari­ Apart from Karnataka, where the mala. The Congress had skilfully ap­ Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) decimat­ propriated the BJP’s stand on the is­ ed the Congress­Janata Dal (Secular) sue. The BJP was thus not able to alliance, the south has withstood the benefit from the unhappiness with efforts of the BJP to increase its na­ the way the LDF State government tional footprint. Yet, developments handled the issue. Kerala is likely to indicate that the BJP has gained see this bipolar alliance competition ground elsewhere in the south too. It for some more time. is now in close competition with the Congress as the key competitor to A crucial election the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) Tamil Nadu witnessed its first elec­ in Telangana. In Kera­ tion after the two stalwarts of its la, the BJP was unable main parties, M. Karunanidhi and to make a dent in the Jayalalithaa, passed away. The victo­ Heading towards bipolar contest bet­ ry achieved by the M.K. Stalin­led ween the United De­ DMK alliance showed that DMK sup­ mocratic Front (UDF) porters recognise him as the true in­ political uncertainty and the Left Demo­ heritor of his father’s legacy. It is un­ cratic Front (LDF). In Tamil Nadu, clear who is seen as the political heir the winner­takes­all trend was re­ of Jayalalithaa as the All India Anna peated by the Dravida Munnetra Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam The BJP’s victory in Karnataka could impact Kazhagam (DMK)­led alliance. And­ (AIADMK) is divided and its govern­ the State government’s stability hra Pradesh is a direct fight between ment in the State is unpopular. The two State­based parties; the two na­ AIADMK alliance and government gress and the JD(S) there was un­ tional parties are out of the seem to have the BJP in the driver’s happiness with the choice of can­ competition. seat. The drubbing the alliance re­ didates. All the infighting within ceived in this election is indicative of these parties could also explain The outlier “The DMK alliance’s victory shows that DMK supporters recognise M.K. Stalin the public mood in the State. their collective poor performance. The BJP has been a key player in the as the true inheritor of his father’s legacy.” Supporters of the party celebrate in The most critical question for the Fourth, in northern Karnataka, politics of Karnataka, the outlier in Chennai after the alliance’s victory in the Lok Sabha election. * AFP near future will be whether the rest the BJP ensured a consolidation of the south this time, since the 1990s. of the southern States will follow the the Lingayat, upper caste and non­ This time, the Congress and the JD propelled the BJP nominees to victo­ Andhra Pradesh witnessed simul­ Karnataka pattern or States like Ta­ dominant Other Backward Classes (S), which together formed the go­ ry. Second, the failure of the Con­ taneous polls to the Lok Sabha and mil Nadu and Kerala will continue to (OBC) vote in its favour. Post­poll vernment in the State last year, came gress and the JD(S) to unite at the State Assembly. The trend in the As­ throw up political competition that survey data indicate that close to together to challenge the BJP. Over ground level cost them dearly. Third, sembly poll has been replicated in is rooted in State­specific socio­cul­ Veenadevi & Nagesh K.L. nine of every 10 Lingayat voters the last three decades, the Lok Sabha the intense infighting and factional­ the Lok Sabha verdict. The victory of tural and historical factors. The five endorsed the BJP, and the party elections in Karnataka have wit­ ism within both the Congress and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Con­ articles on the south by the State Karnataka provided the only was able to do well both among nessed dramatic swings, but never a the JD(S) also contributed to the de­ gress Party is both a triumph of his coordinators of Lokniti provide de­ southern comfort for the Bharatiya the non­dominant OBCs and the total rout of any party or alliance. In feat of their candidates. 18­month tour of the State and a vote tailed empirical proof of the electo­ Janata Party (BJP). It was the only Dalits. The Hyderabad­Karnataka this election, the Congress and the In Telangana, it was expected that against the Telugu Desam Party ral trends in these States and explain State in south India that followed region was considered a strong JD(S) have just one representative the TRS would repeat its impressive (TDP) government. The two national the people’s verdict. The BJP has the national trend of endorsing a base of the Congress. Its promi­ each in the Lok Sabha from Karnata­ performance in the 2018 Assembly parties have been sidelined for diffe­ been halted by a different political second term for the BJP­led Na­ nent national leader, Mallikarjun ka. The BJP did not merely consoli­ polls, but the voters gave the party a rent reasons. The Congress has vir­ vehicle in each of the four southern tional Democratic Alliance. The Kharge, who has never lost an date its position in northern and less celebratory victory. The BJP tually been replaced by the YSR Con­ States where the party has found scale of the victory that the BJP election was defeated this time. coastal Karnataka, but also made sig­ emerged with four seats and the gress, its own splinter group. The much less acceptance compared to achieved in the face of a Congress­ Finally, the Congress­JD(S) al­ nificant inroads into old Mysore, the Congress won three. Thus, the tussle BJP’s break with the TDP cost it dear­ other parts of the country. Janata Dal (Secular) alliance was liance failed to present the voters bastion of the Congress and the JD in the State is now for the second po­ ly and has pushed it to the sidelines. truly spectacular. Never before has with a positive agenda. This ex­ (S). Three factors seem to have been sition. Over time, as the BJP attempts Kerala has traditionally seen a S andeep Shastri is the Pro Vice-Chancellor of the BJP achieved such a high strike plains why it could not garner the at play in the State. First, the support to enlarge its footprint in south In­ face­off between the Congress­led Jain University, Bengaluru and the National rate in the State. Nor has Karnata­ support of younger voters, the for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister dia, it will look towards Telangana. UDF and the Communist Party of In­ Co-ordinator of the Lokniti network ka seen a victory of such a big scale educated segments of society, and in the competitive party system those who have high exposure to which has existed in the State the media. Among these sections, since the 1980s. By winning all but the BJP secured a much higher per­ three seats, the BJP swept all re­ centage of votes. The defeat of pro­ gions of the State. The Congress minent leaders of the alliance in­ When schemes translate into votes and the JD(S) were left clutching cluding Mr. Kharge, JD(S) patriarch on to one seat each, and an inde­ Deve Gowda, former Congress Un­ pendent backed by the BJP com­ ion Ministers Veerappa Moily and The BJP was able to attract more women voters compared to 2014 pleted the Karnataka contingent. K.H. Muniyappa, and Chief Minis­ ter H.D. Kumaraswamy’s son Nik­ Vibha Attri & Anurag Jain Reasons for the BJP’s surge hil Gowda indicate the intensity of What explains the surge of the BJP the sweep of the BJP. in Karnataka? First, the CSDS­Lok­ The 2019 Lok Sabha election saw not niti post­poll data indicate that the Impact of the result only the highest number of women level of satisfaction with the Cen­ This election result might directly candidates contesting (724), but also tral government was reasonably impact the stability of the alliance the highest number of women win­ high. Close to three­fourths of the government in the State. It is only ners (78). For the first time in India’s respondents said they were satis­ a matter of time before the blame electoral history, the voter turnout fied with the BJP­led government’s game for the election defeat is out for men and women was almost performance at the Centre. As op­ in the open. The Congress will equal — 66.79% and 66.68%, posed to this, only two­thirds said need to deal with factionalism respectively. they were satisfied with the Con­ within the party. gress­JD(S) government’s perfor­ Meanwhile, the BJP must be on The gender disadvantage mance in the State. the horns of a dilemma. It would Previous National Election Studies Second, the Modi factor ap­ show that the Bharatiya Janata Party pears to have played a key role. (BJP) has traditionally received less More than half the respondents in support from female voters than the State hoped that Prime Minis­ male voters. Despite the BJP’s spec­ ter Narendra Modi would be re­ tacular victory in this election, the elected. He led Congress president party continues to have a gender dis­ Rahul Gandhi by over 20 percen­ advantage of three percentage points seen a marginal decline from four tage points. More importantly, ov­ among women voters at an all­India percentage points in 2014 to three er half of those who voted for the level. The Congress, a party that is percentage points in 2019. We also BJP said that they would not have traditionally favoured by women, see that more women (along with voted for the party if Mr. Modi had was supported by more or less an men) have shifted from the Congress not been its prime ministerial can­ equal percentage of men and wo­ to the BJP than vice­versa between didate. This explains why all 27 BJP men, and so were the Bahujan Samaj 2014 and 2019. A considerable rise in candidates sought votes in Mr. Mo­ Party and its allies and the Left. the Prime Minister’s popularity di’s name. The gender disadvantage for the among women voters since the 2014 Third, the Congress­JD(S) al­ BJP was not uniform across the coun­ election could have affected this liance stitched by the leadership try, however. Among the Hindi hear­ shift. did not really work on the ground, tland States, Madhya Pradesh and whether among party cadres or Rajasthan saw the highest gender Benefiting from schemes party supporters, especially in the disadvantage for the party, where Another reason could be a result of old Mysore region of Bengaluru the gap between men and women the various schemes launched by the and southern Karnataka. In this was seven and five percentage points Modi government. When voters Vokkaliga heartland, the tradition­ respectively. However, in Chhattis­ were asked to name one policy or al fight has been between the Con­ garh, Uttarakhand and Haryana, the programme of the Modi government gress and the JD(S). In this elec­ party saw more women voting for it. that they liked the most, the Ujjwala tion, by fighting together, the two In Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pra­ Yojana, which is directed at women, parties opened up the space for desh, the number of women and was most popular. This was followed the BJP to emerge. The post­poll men voting for the party was the by Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Jan Dhan data indicate that six out of every same. Yojna, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana 10 Vokkaliga votes went this time and Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao. An to the BJP. In the recent past, this Social profile equal proportion of men and women Vokkaliga vote was divided among The Congress support base among (34%) in our study reported to have the three players. With two of women was more or less balanced benefited from the Ujjwala Yojana. them joining hands, the BJP thus across all social groups, except Among women beneficiaries of this became the beneficiary of those among the upper castes, Muslims scheme, more women voted for the Vokkaliga votes which were not in and Adivasis. On the other hand, the BJP compared to those who did not favour of the alliance. Commenta­ BJP enjoys much higher support benefit from it (41% and 33% respec­ tors had suggested that the com­ like to go in for a mid­term poll if among young women voters as well tively). Among women beneficiaries bined vote share of the Congress the government were to fall. Yet, as upper caste, educated and rich of the Jan Dhan Yojana, 42% of wo­ and the JD(S) would trump the BJP. given the fact that the House has women voters. Across most social men beneficiaries opted for the BJP This did not work as political deve­ barely completed a year, there groups, more men voted for the BJP compared to 34% of non­beneficiar­ lopments since the last election could be stiff resistance from the than women from the same group. ies. have swayed the mood in favour of sitting MLAs who may not be keen This was not the case with Congress There is thus some strength to the the BJP. The belief that the alliance to go back to the voters to seek a voters, where gender­wise support argument that despite its overall gen­ came together to merely deny the fresh mandate. The State is clearly for the party across different social der disadvantage, the BJP was able to BJP a chance to come to power heading towards a phase of politi­ groups was more balanced. higher for men compared to women. support among women than among attract more women voters to it this may well have caused sympathy cal uncertainty. A higher proportion of men want­ While 44% women preferred to see men), the disadvantage is less com­ time as a result of a rise in Mr. Modi’s among a segment of voters in fa­ ed to give the BJP­led National Demo­ him as Prime Minister, 49% men pared to what it was in 2014. Back popularity and the impact of his go­ vour of the BJP. Further, at the con­ Veenadevi is Professor at the Department cratic Alliance another chance as wanted to see him leading the then, 29% of women had opted for vernment’s schemes. stituency level, the rivalry bet­ of Political Science at Bangalore compared to women. The prefe­ country. the party. This rose to 36% this elec­ ween the cadres of the Congress University, Bengaluru, and Nagesh K.L. is rence for Narendra Modi as Prime Although the overall gender disad­ tion. The gap between men and wo­ Vibha Attri & Anurag Jain are with CSDS, and the JD(S) led to a lacklustre Lecturer in PU College, Maakali, Minister was five percentage points vantage for the BJP persists (i.e., less men voters who voted for the BJP has New Delhi campaign. Within both the Con­ Channapatana CM A ND-NDE YK