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Turkish Foreign Policy Toward Israel Through the Lens of Neoclassical Realism, 1949-2010

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Turkish Foreign Policy Toward Israel Through the Lens of Neoclassical Realism, 1949-2010 TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL THROUGH THE LENS OF NEOCLASSICAL REALISM, 1949-2010 A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ANDREW JAMES EMMERT IN PARTIAL FULLFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SEPTEMBER 2020 Approval of the thesis: TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL THROUGH THE LENS OF NEOCLASSICAL REALISM, 1949-2010 submitted by ANDREW JAMES EMMERT in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in International Relations, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean. Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Oktay TANRISEVER Head of Department Department of International Relations Prof. Dr. Özlem TÜR Supervisor Department of International Relations Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Meliha ALTUNIŞIK (Head of the Examining Committee) Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations Prof. Dr. Özlem TÜR (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations Prof. Dr. Ayşegül SEVER Marmara University Department of International Relations I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name: Andrew James Emmert Signature: iii ABSTRACT TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL THROUGH THE LENS OF NEOCLASSICAL ISRAEL, 1949-2010 Emmert, Andrew James M.Sc., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür September 2020, 167 pages This thesis analyzes Turkish foreign policy toward Israel through the lens of Neoclassical Realist theory from 1949-2010. It specifically attempts to discern the various international, regional, and domestic factors that have contributed to Ankara’s foreign policy toward the Jewish state by examining the eras of bipolar (1949-1989), unipolar (1990-2001), and multipolar (2002-2010) international structures. By doing such the author believes that a fresh interpretation of nearly the entire course of Turkish- Israeli relations will be provided. Keywords: Turkey, Israel, International relations, Neoclassical realism iv ÖZ NEOKLASİK REALİZM PERSPEKTİFİNDEN İSRAİL'E YÖNELİK TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI, 1949-2010 Emmert, Andrew James Y. Lisans, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Özlem Tür Eylül 2020, 167 sayfa Bu tez, Türkiye’nin İsrail’e yönelik dış politikasını 1949-2010 yılları arasında Neoklasik Realist teori perspektifinden incelemektedir. Özellikle iki kutuplu (1949-1989), tek kutuplu (1990-2001) ve çok kutuplu (2002- 2010) uluslararası system dönemlerini inceleyerek Ankara'nın Yahudi devletine yönelik dış politikasına katkıda bulunan çeşitli uluslararası, bölgesel ve yerel faktörleri ayırt etmeye çalışmaktadır. Tez, bu şekilde Türkiye-İsrail ilişkilerinin seyrine dair analizlere yeni bir yorum getirebilmeyi hedeflemektedir. Anahtar kelimeler: Türkiye, Israil, Uluslararası ilişkiler, Neoklasik realism, Orta Doğu v To my family… vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to express my special gratitude toward my thesis advisor Dr. Özlem Tür for her tremendous patience and guidance over the past several years. I would also like to thank the other two members of my committee, Dr. Meliha Altunışık and Dr. Ayşegül Sever, for not only accepting request to join the committee, but for also offering me profound and constructive criticism. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to thank my good friends Aysel Kızıltay and Cansu Tokar for their tremendous help with technical and translational matters, respectively, over the past few months. Such support was tremendous and this authors holds a great deal of gratitude toward them. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PLAGIARISM ............................................................................................................. iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iv ÖZ ................................................................................................................................. v DEDICATION ............................................................................................................ vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... viii CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Forward ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Methodology ............................................................................................................... 6 1.3. Identity, History, and Geography: A Brief Survey of Turkish Foreign Policy .. 9 1.4. Millets and Mandates: Turkey, Jews, and Ankara’s Foreign Policy toward the Jewish Agency .......................................................................................................... 11 1.5. Prime Ministers and Presidents: The Turkish Domestic Scene, 1950-2010 .... 13 1.6. Guardians of the Republic: The Role of the Turkish Military in Politics ......... 17 2.UNDERSTANDING NEOCLASSICAL REALISM ............................................. 21 2.1. Neoclassical Realism: The Foreign Policy Executive and Domestic Factors .. 26 2.2. The Value of Neoclassical Realism in the Examination of Turkish Foreign Policy toward Israel.................................................................................................. 31 3.THE COLD WAR AND THE EARLY YEARS OF TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS, 1949-1989 ....................................................................................... 34 3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 34 3.2. The International Structure and Regional Subsystem ......................................... 35 3.3. The Domestic Factors and the FPE ........................................................................ 43 3.4. The FPE: The Menderes Government ................................................................... 44 3.5. The FPE: Süleyman Demirel and his Governments ............................................ 47 3.6. The FPE: The Third Ecevit Government .............................................................. 50 viii 3.8. The Domestic Variables: The Growth of Religiousity within Turkish Society ..................................................................................................................................... 53 3.9. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 59 4.TURKISH-ISRAELI RELATIONS IN A UNIPOLAR WORLD, 1990-2002 ...... 61 4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 61 4.2. Enter the Unipolar World: The Structural and Regional Factors behind Turkey’s Turn toward Israel .................................................................................... 63 4.3. The Regional Factors ............................................................................................... 66 4.4. Domestic Factors and the Foreign Policy Executive ........................................... 71 4.5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 83 5. TAKING ANOTHER TURN FOR THE WORSE: TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL IN A MULTIPOLAR WORLD, 2003-2010 ........ 85 5.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 85 5.2. The International Factors: The Coming of the Multipolar World ...................... 89 5.3. The Regional Factors ............................................................................................... 93 5.4 The Domestic Factors: Introduction ........................................................................ 98 5.5. The FPE: The Rise of the Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi ........................................ 98 5.6. Bringing the Military to Heel: European Union Harmonization and the Civilinization of the FPE ....................................................................................... 101 5.7. Creating Strategic Depth: Davutoğlu and the New Look of Islamist Foreign Policy Ideals ............................................................................................................ 106 5.8. The Rubber Hits the Road: Stratejik Derinlik and the AKP’s Foreign Policy Ideology in Practice ................................................................................................ 110 5.9. The AKP and the Palestinian Issue ...................................................................... 114 5.10. The Domestic Factors: Public Opinion.............................................................. 121 5.11. The Domestic Factors: The Opposition Parties in Parliament and the Islamization of the Turkish Right ...................................................................... 126 5.12 Conclusion .............................................................................................................
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