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The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey Angel Rabasa t F. Stephen Larrabee Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE This research was sponsored by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the Defense Intelligence Community under contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rabasa, Angel. The rise of political Islam in Turkey / Angel Rabasa, F. Stephen Larabee. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4457-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Islam and politics—Turkey. 2. Islam and state—Turkey. 3. Islam—Turkey— History. I. Larabee, F. Stephen. II. Title. BP63.T8R33 2008 322'.109561—dc22 2008009764 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Rod Sato © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Turkey is a Muslim-majority country that is also a secular democratic state, a member of NATO, a candidate for membership in the Euro- pean Union, a long-standing U.S. ally, and the host of İncirlik Air Base, a key hub for logistical support missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. As such, Turkey is pivotal to U.S. and Western security interests in a critical and unstable zone where the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus intersect. Turkey’s importance derives not only from its geopolitical position, but also from the example that it provides of the coexistence of Islam with secular democracy, globalization, and modernity. Of course, the Turkish experiment with the rule of a party with Islamic roots, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), within a framework of strict secularism has generated controversies over the boundaries between secularity and religion in the public sphere—ten- sions that were brought to a head over the selection of the new presi- dent and that led to parliamentary elections, along with a new mandate for the party, in July 2007. This monograph describes the politico-religious landscape in Turkey and the relationship between the state and religion, and it evaluates how the balance between secular and religious forces— and between the Kemalist elites and new emerging social groups— has changed over the past decade, particularly since the AKP came to power in 2002. The study also assesses the new challenges and oppor- tunities for U.S. policy in the changed Turkish political environment and identifies specific actions that the United States may undertake to advance the U.S. interest in a stable, democratic, and friendly Turkey iii iv The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey and, more broadly, in the worldwide dissemination of liberal and plu- ralistic interpretations of Islam. The analytical framework for this study follows that of recent RAND work on politico-religious trends in the Muslim world, partic- ularly The Muslim World After 9/11, by Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair, Theodore W. Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian O. Lesser, and David E. Thaler (MG-246-AF, 2004). This research was sponsored by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and was con- ducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the Defense Intelligence Community. The authors can be contacted by e-mail at [email protected] or [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, ext. 5268 or 5218; or by mail at The RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, ext. 5134; or by mail at The RAND Corporation, 1200 S. Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Table ................................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ............................................................. xvii Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Politics and Religion in Turkey ................................................... 1 Structure of the Report ............................................................ 5 CHAPTER TWO The Islamic Landscape in Turkey .............................................. 7 Religion, Ethnicity, and Politics .................................................. 9 The Management of Islam .......................................................11 Sufi Brotherhoods .................................................................13 Religious Movements .............................................................15 Islamic Foundations ..............................................................18 Islamic Schools ....................................................................19 Shi’ites and Alevis .................................................................19 Turkish Attitudes Toward Religion ............................................ 22 The Violent Fringe ............................................................... 26 Turks in Europe .................................................................. 27 CHAPTER THREE The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey ........................................31 The Impact of the Kemalist Revolution ........................................32 The Advent of Multiparty Democracy..........................................35 The “Turkish-Islamic Synthesis” ................................................37 v vi The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey The Impact of the Özal Reforms ............................................... 38 The Rise of the Religious Right ................................................ 40 Political Islam in Power: The Welfare Interlude .............................. 42 The Impact of the February 28 Process........................................ 44 The Ascendency of the AKP .....................................................47 The July 22, 2007, Election ......................................................49 CHAPTER FOUR The AKP in Power ...............................................................51
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