University of Bath PHD Explaining party system development in post-communist Belarus Korosteleva-Polglase, Elena A. Award date: 2001 Awarding institution: University of Bath Link to publication Alternative formats If you require this document in an alternative format, please contact: [email protected] General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 09. Oct. 2021 EXPLAINING PARTY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN POST-COMMUNIST BELARUS Submitted by Elena A. Korosteleva-Polglase For the degree of PhD/MPhil of the University Bath 2001 COPYRIGHT Attention is drawn to the fact that copyright of this thesis rests with its author. This copy of the thesis had been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with its author and that quotation from the thesis and no information derived from it may be published without the prior written consent of the author. This thesis may be made available for consultation within the University Library and may be photocopied or lent to other libraries for the purposes of consultation. Elena A. Kforosteleva-Polglase UMI Number: U601595 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U601595 Published by ProQuest LLC 2013. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 To my Father, for his never ending love, courage and sacrifice... Abstract This thesis intends to explain the problematic development of the political party system in post-communist Belarus. There has been very little scholarly discussion of post-communist Belarus either in the West or in Belarus itself. Nevertheless, Belarus proves to be a good candidate for analysis as it demonstrates some generic features, typical of third-wave democracies (Huntington, 1971). At the same time, Belarus has pursued its own sui generis path of transition. Behind its democratic fagade of semi-regularised elections, full suffrage, and constitutionally guaranteed civil liberties, one can witness an increasing misbalance of power that is heavily weighted towards the president and away from parties and the legislature. This necessitates a discussion of party system development and associated with it, democratic deficit in the new regime. The thesis proceeds in five chapters. Chapter 1 outlines the principal features of third wave transitions, and focuses on the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which follow a different path of development to other regimes. The result is that they are becoming ‘outsiders’ in the ‘new’ Europe. In Chapter 2 an analysis of transitional theories will be undertaken in an attempt to develop a complex explanatory framework, known as the ‘structure-agency approach’, to study Belarus’ party system. Chapter 3 focuses on the chronological development of structural and institutional determinants of party system development in Belarus. Chapter 4 examines parties as three-dimensional decision-making agencies, that are parties in public office, central office and grassroots vis-a-vis their voters. The thesis concludes in Chapter 5 with a wider discussion of what type of democracy, if any, is likely to become established in Belarus and what needs to be done in order to sustain it. EXPLAINING PARTY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN POST-COMMUNIST BELARUS Contents List of tables and figures page vii Acknowledgements ix Introduction. Disclosing third wave transitions: Towards an explanation of xi party system development in Belarus Chapter 1. Democratisation in the CIS compared to other third wave transitions 1 1.1. Particularities of the third-wave democratisation 3 1.2. CIS vis-a-vis other third wave transitions: what makes them different? 20 1.2.1 Economic externalities and elite strategic considerations 25 1.2.2 Structural, institutional and cultural diversity of the CIS 33 Chapter 2. Theories of democratisation: in search of a complex explanatory framework of the party system development in Belarus 39 2.1 The structure-oriented framework 43 2.1.1 The neo-institutional approach 44 2.1.2 The historical-structural approach 56 2.1.3 The cultural approach 65 2.2 The process-oriented framework 73 2.2.1 The rational choice theory 75 2.2.2 The path-dependent approach: a middle-way approach 82 2.3 Parsimonious analytical framework: structure-agency debate 88 Chapter 3. The impact o f structure on party system development in Belarus, between 1988-2000 97 3.1 Structural analysis of Belarus’ political history 103 3.1.1 The road to independence 103 3.1.2 Lukashenko’s rise to power 117 3.1.3 Aftermath of the new presidency: 1996-2000 123 3.1.4 International standpoint and further discussion 134 3.2 Analysis of institutional environment in Belarus 138 3.2.1 The impact of a strong presidency on party system formation 142 3.2.2 Belarus’ institutional environment 153 3.2.3 Institutional requirements for building democracy 169 Chapter 4. The role o f agency: Parties and party system development in Belarus 176 4.1. Parties in public office: between representation and autocracy 181 4.1.1 Methodology and working hypotheses 188 4.1.2 Belarus’ Parliament between 1990 and 1999: a general picture 200 4.1.3 Factional politics in the 1996 parliament 215 4.1.4 Further discussion 220 4.2. Parties as organisations: central office and regional network 225 4.2.1 Methodology and working hypotheses 226 4.2.2 The ‘mass type’ party organisations in Belarus 232 4.2.3 The new type of party organisations 249 4.2.4 Further discussion 257 4.3. Political parties and their voters in Belarus 265 4.3.1 Methodology of data collection and analysis 266 4.3.2 The 1990-1999 Belorussian electorate: trends in electoral behaviour 268 4.3.3 Explaining electoral volatility 283 4.3.4 The President and the parties’ electorates: what is the difference? 296 Chapter 5. Democratic perspectives for party system institutionalisation in Belarus 312 5.1 Democracy with adjectives: analytical differentiation 313 5.2 Delegative democracy: illusory consolidation or sustainable regime? 318 5.3 Can democracy develop from a delegative regime in Belarus? 330 Further discussion and Conclusion 338 Bibliography 355 Appendix 1. Political parties in Belarus. January 2000 381 Appendix 2. Results of parliamentary elections in 1990, 1995 and 2000 383 Appendix 3. Parties’ electoral profiles. December 2000 385 Appendix 4. Some behavioural trends within the Belarusian electorate 391 Appendix 5. Belarus’ comparison with other transition economies 394 Appendix 6. List of interviewees, 1996 & 1999, Belarus 398 List of tables and figures Table 1.2.1-1. The share of oil and gas in Russia’s exports to the CIS 30 Table 1.2.2-1. ‘European versus Slav’ cleavage 35 Table 4.1.2-1. Indexes of factions’ voting behaviour in the 1996 parliament 218 Table 4.3.2-1. The left-right distribution of public attitudes in different regions of the country in relation to the introduction of direct presidential rule had civil unrest occurred 274 Table 4.3.2-2. The left-right distribution of public attitudes in different regions of the country in relation to the necessity of multi-party system and freely contested elections 275 Table 4.3.2-3, The left-right distribution of public attitudes amongst different educational groups of the population in relation to return to communist rule 276 Table 4.3.2-4. The left-right distribution of public attitudes in different occupational groups in relation to return to communist rule 277 Table 4.3.2-5. The left-right distribution of public attitudes in different age groups in relation to return to communist rule 277 Table 4.3.2-6. Generational effect calculated on the basis of voters’ separation into cohorts according to the election year when they became socialised into 278- politics 279 Table 4.3.4-1. Public trust of political and social institutions in Belarus, 1998 302 Figures 4.1.2-1. Positions of members of Belarus’ parliaments between 1990 and 1996 205 Figures 4.1.2-2. Positions of factions in Belarus’ parliaments between 1990 and 1996 212 Figure 4.3.3-1. Mean Gross Volatility 1991-1999 287 Figure 4.3.3-2. Mean Net Volatility 1991-1999 287 Figure 4.3.3-3. Comparing Mean Block Volatility (BV) 1991-1999: Structural Influence of the PCB and the BNF 290 Figure 4.3.3-4. Comparing Mean Within-Block Volatility (WBV) 1991-1999: Structural influence of the PCB and the BNF 290 Acknowledgments The tangible completion of this volume means a great deal to me, as being a student is a beneficial and rewarding experience.