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The Effects of Identity on Relations Between Russia and Belarus University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2012 Turning Away From Your Slavic Brother: The Effects Of Identity On Relations Between Russia And Belarus Matt Matejka University of Central Florida Part of the International Relations Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Masters Thesis (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Matejka, Matt, "Turning Away From Your Slavic Brother: The Effects Of Identity On Relations Between Russia And Belarus" (2012). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 2153. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/2153 TURNING AWAY FROM YOUR SLAVIC BROTHER: THE EFFECTS OF IDENTITY ON RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND BELARUS by MATT MATEJKA B.A. University of Central Florida, 2006 A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters in Arts in the Department of Political Science in the College of Sciences at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2012 © 2012 Matt Matejka ii ABSTRACT On September 24, 2011, it was announced that Putin would run for president once again in 2012. The reaction in the West was that ―the more things change, the more they stay the same.‖ The Western conception of the post-Cold War Russia is often one of remarkable consistency since the turn of the century. This Western narrative focuses on an autocratic Putin reigning over his resurgent and confrontational Russia. Does this narrative tell the story of Russia today, or does it instead obscure it? To answer this I have elected to analyze Russian identity and how it relates to Russia‘s foreign policy with Belarus, traditionally a close ally of Russia. Analyzing news articles from state-owned Russia Today, I look at changes in reporting and Russian identity over time. I argue that a shift in Russian identity towards a more liberal outlook between 2006 and 2010 motivated a degradation of relations with Belarus. I argue that once the simplified narrative of a resurgent Russia is peeled back, a closer look reveals competing identities and competing interest groups in Russia‘s domestic arena. Finally I conclude that not only does identity play a pivotal role in Russia‘s relations, but also that researching identity is important in that it gives us a window into a fairly closed regime that lies at the center of the global stage. Discovering how Russian identity reacts to and influences foreign policy can offer insight into the domestic framework of contemporary Russia, as well as offer us an understanding of how central ideas are to crafting the world around us. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Dr. Thomas Dolan and Dr. Waltraud Morales for their invaluable assistance. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 A Different World ....................................................................................................................... 1 The Brother States ....................................................................................................................... 5 II. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 9 Identity And Its Measurement ..................................................................................................... 9 Identity in Russia ....................................................................................................................... 13 Foreign Policy And Its Measurement ........................................................................................ 20 Traditional Theories Of Foreign Policy Regarding Russia ....................................................... 22 Brief Notes On Organizational Learning And Its Significance ................................................ 26 What Prompts Identity?: Individual Elites Or Broad Cultural Constructs? Can The Two Even Be Divorced? ............................................................................................................................. 27 III. RUSSIA‘S DOMESTIC STRUCTURE ................................................................................. 31 The Clan: The Political Unit Of Russian Politics ..................................................................... 31 Belarus: A Deviation From CIS Clan Formations .................................................................... 35 The Siloviki In Power And The Connection Between Factions And Identities ........................ 36 Cracks In The Illusion Of Elite Unity ....................................................................................... 39 The Transferring Of Power From The Siloviki To The Civiliki ............................................... 43 Medvedev: Not Quite A Puppet After All ................................................................................ 45 Dual Power In Russia From 2008 Onwards .............................................................................. 47 The Meaning Of The New Centrism In Context ....................................................................... 49 IV. RUSSIAN-BELARUSIAN RELATIONS ............................................................................. 52 The Trajectory Of Russian Foreign Policy Since The Collapse Of The Soviet Union ............. 52 A History Of The Russia-Belarus Relationship ........................................................................ 54 Gazprom: The State, Inc. ........................................................................................................... 58 The Case Of Gazprom: Marketization Or Blackmail? .............................................................. 62 V. DATA ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................. 66 A Look At The Framing Of The Split With Belarus ................................................................. 66 Statism Whithering?: A Look At The Data ............................................................................... 76 Alternate Hypothesis 1: Gazprom As Foreign Policy Monopolizer ......................................... 93 Alternate Hypothesis 2: Bargaining Approaches And Russia‘s Realpolitik ............................. 99 VI. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 106 Illiberal Pluralism: Russia‘s Capacity For Change Without Democratic Means .................... 106 Identity As A Shaper Of National Interests ............................................................................ 108 An Impending Shift Away From Liberalism In 2012? ........................................................... 112 APPENDIX A: CHRONOLOGY OF RUSSIAN-BELARUSIAN RELATIONS ..................... 114 APPENDIX B: RT ARTICLE ILLUSTRATING HOW IDENTITY WAS QUALIFIED ........ 123 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 126 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: International Relations Rhetorical Focuses of the Two Dominant Identities ................. 12 Table 2: Identities Groups in Russia ............................................................................................. 14 Table 3: Statist and Neo-Soviet Identities Compared ................................................................... 17 Table 4: The Changing Fortunes of the Elite ................................................................................ 44 Table 5: Gazprom in Government ................................................................................................ 59 Table 6: Rhetoric as Identity Indicators ........................................................................................ 77 Table 7: Typology of Rhetorical Measurements .......................................................................... 78 Table 8: Rhetorical Breakdown for 2006 and 2010 ...................................................................... 82 Table 9: 2006 Rhetorical Usages .................................................................................................. 83 Table 10: 2010 Rhetorical Usages ................................................................................................ 83 Table 11: What is Viewed as the "Other" ..................................................................................... 86 Table 12: Phrase Usages ............................................................................................................... 88 Table 13: Tag Usages.................................................................................................................... 89 Table 14: Rhetorical Breakdown for Russian-Language Articles ................................................ 91 Table 15: 2006 Russian-Language Rhetorical Usages ................................................................. 92 Table 16: 2010 Russian-Language Rhetorical Usages ................................................................. 92 Table 17: Gas Prices ....................................................................................................................
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