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TO EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP (Analytical Report of Razumkov Centre) NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE π 4 (108) CONTENTS 2009 UKRAINE-RUSSIA: FROM CRISIS – TO EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP (Analytical Report of Razumkov Centre) ............................................................................................. 2 Founded and published by: Section 1. POLITICAL FACTORS OF BILATERAL COOPERATION ....................................................... 3 Section 2. BILATERAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION OF UKRAINE AND RUSSIA .........................15 Section 3. RELATIONS OF UKRAINE AND RUSSIA IN THE ENERGY SECTOR .............................. 24 Section 4. HUMANITARIAN ASPECT OF UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS ......................................28 Section 5. STATE AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE-RUSSIA COOPERATION IN THE MILITARY SECTOR ......................................................................................... 33 UKRAINIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STUDIES Section 6. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS ............................................................................. 37 NAMED AFTER OLEXANDER RAZUMKOV PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF UKRAINE-RUSSIA PARTNERSHIP (Round-table by correspondence) .................................................................................................... 43 LONG-TERM FRUITFUL AND MUTUALLY ADVANTAGEOUS COOPERATION Director General Anatoliy Rachok OF UKRAINE AND RUSSIA IS OF OUR MUTUAL INTEREST Editor-in-Chief Maryna Melnyk Victor YUSHCHENKO ........................................................................................................... 43 Layout and design Oleksandr Shaptala ESTABLISH EFFECTIVE COOPERATION BETWEEN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA Technical & computer Yulia TYMOSHENKO ............................................................................................................ 45 support Volodymyr Kekuh GOOD-NEIGHBOURLINESS, MUTUAL TRUST AND RESPECT FOR NATIONAL INTERESTS OF EACH PARTY ARE THE CORNERSTONE OF BILATERAL RELATIONS This magazine is registered with the State Committee Yuriy KOSTENKO ................................................................................................................. 46 of Ukraine for Information Policy, INTENSIFICATION OF BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IS ONE OF THE MAIN TASKS OF THE FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE STATE registration certificate KB №4122 Bohdan DANYLYSHYN ......................................................................................................... 47 STRENGTHEN TRUST BETWEEN OUR STATES Printed in Ukrainian and English Oleh BILORUS ..................................................................................................................... 49 Circulation: 3 800 WE SHOULD PART WITH VAIN PROMISES, CLEARLY FORMULATE OUR POSITION AND BEGIN PRACTICAL ACTION Editorial address: Anatoliy GRYTSENKO .......................................................................................................... 51 46 Volodymyrska str., Office Centre, 5th floor, TASK OF POLITICIANS AND AUTHORITIES OF BOTH COUNTRIES – TO USE POTENTIAL OF CONSTRUCTIVE COOPERATION Kyiv, 01034 Borys TARASYUK ................................................................................................................ 52 tel.: (380 44) 201-1198 UKRAINE-RUSSIA: WAYS OF OVERCOMING CRISIS IN RELATIONS fax: (380 44) 201-1199 (Presentations of Round-table participants) ..................................................................................... 53 e-mail: [email protected] UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR, PRAGMATIC, web site: www.razumkov.org.ua EFFECTIVE AND POSITIVELY COMPETITIVE Arseniy YATSENIUK ............................................................................................................. 53 Reprinted or used materials must refer to STRENGTHEN POTENTIAL OF BILATERAL COOPERATION “National Security & Defence” Kostyantyn HRYSHCHENKO ................................................................................................ 54 EMPHASIS SHOULD BE MADE ON GAINS IN BILATERAL RELATIONS The views expressed in this magazine Vsevolod LOSKUTOV ........................................................................................................... 55 do not necessarily reflect those RUSSIA AND UKRAINE – POSSIBILITIES OF A DIALOGUE Igor BUNIN .......................................................................................................................... 56 of the Razumkov Centre staff DRAW UP A ROADMAP TO LEAD RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS OUT OF CRISIS Anatoliy ADAMISHIN ........................................................................................................... 59 Photos: ENCOURAGE IMPROVEMENT OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE COOPERATION UNIAN – cover, Alexander MUZYKANTSKIY ................................................................................................. 60 www.cruiser-moskva.info – p. 10, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN EXPERTS ABOUT THE STATE, PROBLEMS Press-service of the President of Ukraine – p. 11, AND PROSPECTS OF BILATERAL RELATIONS Ukrinform – pp. 16, 18, (Expert poll) ...................................................................................................................................... 61 promstroi-group.ru – p. 25, UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS IN ASSESSMENTS OF UKRAINE’S CITIZENS NNEGC “Energoatom” – p. 26 (Nation-wide poll) ............................................................................................................................. 72 © Razumkov Centre, 2009 This project is implemented with support from Arseniy Yatseniuk’s Information on how to receive this magazine on a regular basis may be found at: “Open Ukraine” Foundation http://www.razumkov.org.ua/magazine МІСЦЕВІ ВИБОРИ UKRAINE-RUSSIA: FROM CRISIS – TO EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP oday, the Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical state. Conflicts are on the rise in the key fields of T cooperation – political, socio-economic, humanitarian. A number of problems complicating bilateral contacts actually remain “frozen”. The parties’ positions divided on a number of key foreign policy issues, the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine and Russia are totally different. The process of estrangement of the state and political elites of the two countries goes on, while the political-diplomatic dialogue acquired numerous traits of mutual accusations and demarches. The intensity of bilateral contacts between representatives of the political establishment, expert communities, business circles, academic communities and the public notably goes down. Numerous declarations of Kyiv and Moscow of “normalisation, rationalisation, de-politicisation” of relations did not lead to success. Probably, the most alarming is that the recent years saw deterioration of relations between citizens of the two countries. Sociologists record growth of estrangement, prejudice, enmity. This trend witnesses the threat of breakup of traditional socio-cultural ties of the two countries. Such processes and trends give grounds to note a systemic crisis in the Ukraine-Russia partnership, unreadiness of the parties for positive reformatting of cooperation. The atmosphere of relations was strongly undermined by the conflict in the Caucasus (August 2008) that affected the security architecture on the regional and global scale, the Ukraine-Russia “gas war” of January 2009, which involved countries of the European continent. Escalation of conflicts poses a double-edged threat, devaluates “geopolitical assets” of both countries. For Russia, there is a threat of staying an unpopular regional power player overburdened by the post-imperial syndrome, with inadequate claims of control of the post-Soviet space. For Ukraine – a threat of staying in a state of uncertainty, transition, in the “grey zone” of collision of interests of the West and East. Unfortunately, there are grounds to suggest that in the near future, the character of bilateral relations will not fundamentally change. Another “unfriendly pause” arose in the dialogue of Kyiv and Moscow, most probably, in connection with the forthcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. What is also evident is that such state of affairs does not meet the national interests of both Ukraine and Russia, aggravates the regional situation, complicates contacts of the two countries with the European community, NATO, and the USA. There is no alternative to establishment of good-neighbourly partnership between Ukraine and Russia. Such partnership should rest on the European norms and rules, parity and mutual benefit, transparency, mutual respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity, consideration of each other’s interests, peaceful settlement of disputes without the use of force, political-economic and other tools of pressure. This Analytical Report consists of six sections. First section analyses the specificity and trends of development of Ukraine-Russia relations in the policy domain. Second surveys the state and prospects of interaction in the economic sector, problem factors in the development section of trade and economic ties. Third outlines the problems of relations in the energy sector. Issues of energy supply and energy security of the section country are examined in the context of bilateral relations. Fourth considers the humanitarian aspect of bilateral partnership; satisfaction of national-cultural needs of section Ukrainians in Russia and the Russia-speaking population in Ukraine. Fifth assesses the state of Ukraine-Russia military cooperation in the political-military, operational and Military and section technical cooperation. Sixth carries general conclusions
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