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Weeklyoverview UKRAINIAN EQUITY MARKET:: WEEKLY OVERVIEW Parex Asset Management 5–6 JANUARY 2010 Republikas laukums 2a, Riga, Latvia, LV-1522 Lidiya Mudra, Financial Analyst Tel. 371 67010810 Fax. 371 67778622 http://www.parexgroup.com Email: [email protected] Equity Market The Ukrainian major exchanges started the year on a PFTS Index positive note, with PFTS index gaining 3.82% and UX 700 adding 5.09% during holiday-shortened trading week. PFTS In the metallurgical sector, the Financial Times has last week: informed that an unnamed Russian group is close to 650 buying control of the Ukrainian metallurgical +3.82% corporation Industrial Union of Donbas (IUD). According to FT, the “50%+2 shares” stake in the IUD 600 might be sold by the end of January for up to $2b. 06-Jan-10: Later in the week, Oleksandr Pilipenko, a vice 594.80 550 president within the IUD group, revealed in a Oct Nov Dec Jan statement that one of its new owners is Swiss-based steel trader Carbofer, itself co-owned by Russian below.) businessman Alexander Katunin. At the same time, In the agricultural sector, Ukraine's leading sugar PFTS index gained he did not name the others Mr. Katunin’s partners, producer Astarta Holding released 2009 operational 3.82% and UX revealing only that “none of the new owners would results. In 2009, Astarta produced more than 225ths added 5.09% during have more than a 20% stake”. There were given no tonnes of sugar (-4.5% y/y) that allowed the company the week figures for the value of the deal in the statement. to keep its leading position among Ukraine’s major Ukraine’s metallurgical companies posted preliminary sugar producers, with its share of the domestic sugar output figures for December 2009. Specifically, production increasing to 18% (+3pp y/y). Astarta also Ukraine’s steelmakers reported an increase of 2.8% harvested 376ths tonnes of grain and oilseeds (-4% m/m in crude steel output in December to 2.75m y/y) and produced 44.1ths tonnes of milk (+22% y/y). tonnes. In 2009, crude steel production was 19.8% According to release, the company significantly down in y/y terms, reaching 29.76m tonnes. increased the energy efficiency and productivity of its Local coke production grew by 6.1% m/m to 1.56m sugar plants over 2009 due to consistent tonnes last month, expanding the 2009 output to implementation of the modernization program. In 17.38m tonnes, down 11.2% y/y. particular, the average consumption of natural gas for Domestic iron ore producers raised concentrate processing of one tonne of sugar beet reduced by output in December by 3.7% m/m to 5.44m tonnes, 20% y/y to 35m3. Meanwhile, the sugar yield bringing 2009 full year production to 54.85m tonnes, increased to 14.8% in 2009 from 13.9% in 2008, down 3.3% y/y. significantly exceeding the Ukrainian average of Steel pipe production dropped by 11.5% m/m in approx. 13.5%. December, to 106.7ths tonnes. For 2009, Ukraine’s In addition, the company informed it had increased its pipe industry output fell by 33.9% y/y to 1.56m land bank under long-term lease by 6% y/y in 2009 to tonnes. (For detailed output data please see the table 175ths ha. Economics and Politics The State Statistic Committee published inflation data December. For the Ukrainian side to pay in time the for December. Consumer prices grew by 0.9% in NBU had to buy a large portion of the government December after a 1.1% increase in November. In bonds placed by the cabinet in the statutory capital of annual terms, consumer inflation slowed down to the company, worth UAH 12b. 12.3% from 13.6% recorded in November and 14.1% Ukraine’s incumbent president Victor Yuschenko, who in October. In December, the major drivers of inflation is also a candidate in this year's presidential elections, were continuing seasonal increase in the prices of stated that he was holding talks with four other food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.7% m/m). contenders for the presidency on nominating a single Producer prices picked up to 1.0% m/m in December candidate. According to Yuschenko’ statement, he from 0.4% m/m in November. Last month, the most was carrying such talks with the Civil Position leader significant growth was witnessed in prices of Anatoliy Hrytsenko, the Ukrainian People's Party’s electricity, gas and water suppliers (+3.2% m/m), leader Yuriy Kostenko, the Svoboda party's leader In December, food, beverages and tobacco manufacturers (+3.1% Oleh Tyahnybok, and the Front for Change party's Ukraine’s CPI was m/m) as well as chemical and petrochemical leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk. However, Yuschenko's up 12.3% y/y producers (+2.0% m/m). In y/y terms, the pace of proposition seems likely to fail as Yatsenyuk has producer prices growth accelerated to 14.3% y/y in already claimed that he is not intending to withdraw December vs. recorded 12.9% y/y in November and from presidential race in favour of another candidate, 5.1% y/y in October. whereas Hrytsenko and Tyahnybok have denied both YTD inflation data confirmed disinflation trend as CPI their being in talks with Yuschenko as well as their decelerated to 15.9% y/y in January-December of readiness for such talks at all. 2009 from 25.2 y/y in the same period of 2008, while In the related news, France, Britain, Germany PPI slowed to 6.5% y/y in January-December of 2009 announced neutral stand in Ukrainian election. French from 35.5% y/y for the corresponding period of 2008. Secretary of State for European Affairs Pierre The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced its Lelloucheand visiting British Minister for Europe Chris gross international reserves reduced by 2.9% m/m to Bryant claimed at a joint press conference that they $26.5b in December. For 2009 full year, the reserves had reached agreement with German State Minister declined by 16%. of Foreign Affairs Werner Hoyer to take an impartial Russian Gazprom confirmed that it had received position toward every candidate in Ukraine's payment from Naftohaz Ukrainy for gas delivered in presidential election. Weekly Leaders / Laggards Largest Gainers Largest Losers Largest Turnover Turnover, Issuer Change Price Issuer Change Price Issuer USD Alchevsky Iron and Steel 28.75% 0.18 UAH Astarta -5.00% 38.00 PLN Ferrexpo 26.3m Ferrexpo 19.55% 2.37 GBP Tmm Real Estate -1.51% 1.96 EUR Regal Petroleum 21.4m Sintal Agriculture 10.00% 2.31 EUR JKX Oil&Gas 11.9m DUPD 8.77% 0.62 GBP Kernel 5.9m Regal Petroleum 7.81% 0.86 GBP Astarta 3.4m Ukrainian Equity Market Market 2009 Results at a Glance Indicators’ Performance* in 2009 Due to a strong rally since March the local market, as measured by PFTS index, 750 1650 managed to rise by 90.1% YTD, to 572.91 points as of the last trading day of 2009, but it was 52.6% lower from its highest close of 1208.61 on January 15, 650 PFTS UX 1450 2008. In 2008 it saw a sharp decline that made Ukraine the second worst- performing stock market in the world, being down 74.3% y/y. 550 1250 UX index advanced by 190.9% since the bourse’s launching at the end of March 2009, to 1454.53 points on December 31, 2009. For the same period, 450 1050 PFTS index gained 161.4%. 350 850 Overall, the combined equities turnover on both major Ukrainian bourses stood at UAH 6.6b, with the PFTS and the UX being responsible for almost equal 250 650 proportions of this volume. The recorded volume was half that of 2008. 150 450 Trading Volumes Dynamics in 2004-2009, m UAH Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 * Ukrainian Exchange was launched on the 26th of March, 2009 15 000 PFTS UX Major Indicators Components’ Performance in 2009 12 000 UX PFTS 9 000 Mar- Mar- Component Component YTD Dec Dec 6 000 Alchevsky Iron & Steel +139% Alchevsky Iron & Steel +136% +67% Avdiyivsky Coke* +82% Avdiyivsky Coke +238% +131% 3 000 Azovstal +404% Azovstal +406% +214% Raiffeisen Bank Aval +208% Raiffeisen Bank Aval -68% 0 +227% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Centrenergo +203% Centrenergo +208% +86% Yenakievo Steel +288% Dniproenergo +37% +37% Bank Forum* +45% Donbasenergo +236% +97% The Most Traded Stocks of 2009 (by volume) Motor Sich +415% Yenakievo Steel +290% +214% Sumy Frunze Mach. Eng. +248% Kryukiv Railcar +233% +98% Stirol* +59% Motor Sich +414% +351% PFTS UX Mariupol Heavy Machine Ukrnafta +114% +141% +89% Engineering % of the % of the Ukrsotsbank +335% Interpipe NTR +15% -82% Issuer m UAH entire Issuer m UAH entire volume volume Ukrtelecom +146% Poltavskiy GOK +214% +139% Yasynivsky Coke* +200% Sumy Frunze Mach. Eng. +178% +194% Avdiyiv. Coke 398 11.1 Ukrnafta 503 17.6 Zakhidenergo +31% Stirol +150% +67% Azovstal 349 9.75 Yenakievo Steel 357 12.5 Ukrnafta +112% +52% Ukrnafta 315 8.80 Azovstal 303 10.6 Ukrsotsbank +359% +59% Zakhidenergo 188 5.26 Ukrsotsbank 227 7.92 Ukrtelecom +149% +68% Centrenergo 164 4.58 Alchevsky Steel 219 7.65 Yasynivsky Coke +570% +319% *since late April of 2009 Zakhidenergo + 41% -16% Output Data Steel output, ths tonnes Coke output, ths tonnes Company Dec-09 y/y m/m 12m09 y/y Company Dec-09 y/y m/m 12m09 y/y Dniprospetsstal 27.0 80.0% -6.9% 259.5 -47.2% Avdiyivsky Coke 262.0 46.4% 1.9% 2 805.0 -28.4% Yenakievo Iron and Steel 209.0 5.6% -2.0% 2 384.8 -12.8% Donetskkoks 31.0 82.4% -3.1% 276.0 -25.0% Azovstal 468.0 113.7% 2.5% 4 643.8 -15.7% Yasynivsky Coke 132.0 33.3% 3.1% 1 493.0 -1.6% Mariupol Ilyich Iron and Steel 444.0 50.0% 15.0% 4 289.0 -23.5% Alchevsky Coke 255.0 0.4% -1.2% 3 428.0 2.9% Alchevsk Steel 256.0 13.3% -10.5% 3 641.0 -16.0% Bagliykoks 64.0 120.7% 23.1% 595.0 -9.8% Mittal Steel Kryviy Rih 514.0 92.5% -1.0% 5 054.0 -18.9% Zaporizhkoks 98.0 -14.0% -5.8% 1 244.0 -25.8% Zaporizhstal 259.0 -8.8% -9.8% 3
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