NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE π 4-5 (133-134) CONTENT EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS 2012 (Аnalytical report by the Razumkov Centre) .............................................2 Founded and published by: CHAPTER 1. EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA: POLITICAL DIMENSION OF RELATIONS ....4 Annex. STATE OF EXECUTION OF THE ACTION PLAN ON VISA LIBERALISATION (APVL) PROVIDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION TO UKRAINE...............11 CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC RELATIONS IN THE EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA UKRAINIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STUDIES TRIANGLE ..........................................................................19 NAMED AFTER OLEXANDER RAZUMKOV CHAPTER 3. EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA ENERGY “TRIANGLE”: DEPENDENCY, INTERESTS, CONTRADICTIONS ..................30 Director General Anatoliy Rachok CHAPTER 4. SECURITY DIMENSION OF EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA Editor Valeriya Klymenko Layout and design Oleksandr Shaptala RELATIONS ........................................................................37 Technical support Volodymyr Kekukh CHAPTER 5. HUMANITARIAN DIMENSION OF EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS ........................................................................45 This journal is registered with the State Committee of Ukraine for Information Policy, CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS ......................................51 registration certificate KB №4122 EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA: PROBLEMS, ACHIEVEMENTS, PROSPECTS (Interviews, Ukrainian government officials and politicians) ..................55 Published in Ukrainian and English Oleh BILORUS, Oleksandr YEFREMOV, Vitaliy KLYCHKO, Andriy КОZHEMIAKIN, Circulation: 3,800 copies Volodymyr LYTVYN, Borys TARASYUK, Ihor SHAROV Editorial address: EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS: INTERVIEWS WITH FOREIGN DIPLOMATS 16 Lavrska str., 2nd floor, (Interviews, foreign diplomats) ..............................................................66 Kyiv, 01015 Catherine ASHTON & José Manuel BARROSO, Hans-Jurgen GAYMZET, tel.: (380 44) 201-11-98 Cornel IONESCU, José Rodríguez MOYANO, Ivan POČUCH, Villy SØVNDAL fax: (380 44) 201-11-99 e-mail: [email protected] ARTICLES web site: www.razumkov.org.ua GEOPOLITICS Reprinted or used materials must refer to UKRAINE, RUSSIA, EUROPE “National Security & Defence” James SHERR ..........................................................................................72 UKRAINE’S FOREIGN POLICY: LOSING ITS BALANCE Photos: Steven PIFER ...........................................................................................75 www.segodnya.ua – pp.7, 36 e-mail.ru – p.8, i.lb.ua – p.10 UKRAINE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE EU politclub.info – p.73 Аndrey PIONTKOVSKY ..............................................................................78 i.obozrevatel.ua – p.74 ECONOMY www.voanews.com – p.79 image.tsn.ua – p.90 RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC INTERACTION WITH UKRAINE AND THE EU STATES farm4.static.flickr.com – p.91 FOR THE SAKE OF MODERNISATION: A CORPORATE PERSPECTIVE rusmir.in.ua– p.93 Boris KHEIFETS ........................................................................................81 www.religion.in.ua – p. 96 RISKS OF INVOLVING UKRAINE IN THE SPHERE OF RUSSIA’S ECONOMIC INTERESTS kiev.ucoz.org – p.98 Vasyl YURCHYSHYN .................................................................................87 SOCIO-CULTURAL DIMENSION © Razumkov Centre, 2012 THE DICHOTOMY OF RUSSKIY MIR FOR UKRAINE The project “EU-Ukraine-Russia Relations Triangle: Liudmyla SHANGHINA ...............................................................................92 Problems and Prospects” was supported by the International Renaissance Foundation. THE STATE AND PROSPECTS OF EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS: The publication was supported by the National EXPERTS’ ASSESSMENTS ......................................................................................99 Endowment for Democracy (USA). RELATIONS OF UKRAINE WITH THE EU AND RUSSIA: CITIZENS’ ASSESSMENTS ...................................................................................108 EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS oday, relations between Kyiv, Brussels and Moscow are rather complex and contradictory. High degree T of uncertainty, the credibility gap and conflict of interests are its main features. Contacts between the parties are burdened with ideological opposition, “frozen” conflicts, and competing integration projects in the post-Soviet area. The relations between the EU, Russia and Ukraine in political, economic, energy, security and humanitarian spheres are rather problematic. This situation creates additional risks for the European security, does not correspond to the parties’ interests and requires some joint measures and mutually accepted solutions to the issues on the agenda. 1. When considering the relations between the EU, Ukraine and Russia, one should note that there exists no “triangle” that could be institutionally formalised at the international level. Brussels, Kyiv and Moscow are not united by trilateral agreements. There are no relevant international mechanisms for cooperation or elements of common policy. However, the parties are closely tied when it comes to political, economic, humanitarian relations and security sector, etc. This is caused by the process of geopolitical restructuring of the European space following the collapse of the “socialist camp” and the formation of two “centres of influence” on the European continent – the EU and Russia that have been implementing their fundamentally different integration projects in the post-Socialist (now, the post-Soviet) states. The EU pursues the policy of enlargement and/or creating a group of partner countries that would act on the basis of the European (Western) norms and standards. In the meantime, Russia has been pursuing an integration project of its own (the Eurasian Union) that would be governed by the rules and norms inherent to the state-centric political system of an “Eastern” pattern. 2. Analysis of relations in the “triangle” is especially important for Ukraine, which is directly influenced by the above-mentioned integration projects – the European and the Eurasian. It can be said without exaggeration that the choice of the integration vector will shape the country’s future. This is especially urgent given the sharp deficit of time, political and economic resources now experienced by Ukraine. Analysis of relations in the trilateral format is also important for the EU and Russia, since it actually means competition of integration potentials of the European and the Eurasian projects, in which Ukraine has an important role to play. While for Russia, “losing” Ukraine means the final devaluation and complication of implementation of its integration project. For the EU, Ukraine’s choice of the Eurasian path is far less critical, however it might result in creation of a “managed democracy” at its border, with values different from the European, and therefore – halting the eastward expansion of the EU’s area of democracy, freedom and security. 3. Therefore, the competition of integration projects is crucial for relationship between the sides of the “triangle”. While implementing the Wider Europe, the European Neighbourhood Policy and promoting the Eastern Partnership Initiative, the EU is penetrating even farther into the post-Soviet region of the Eastern Europe and the Caucasus that Russia considers to be the sphere of its privileged interests. This is the key problem of relations in the EU-Ukraine-Russia format. Russia and the EU see differently the essence and goals of integration processes in the post-Soviet space. The projects of Moscow and Brussels rest on different values and cooperation mechanisms. Namely, by contrast to the EU, the countries that belong to (or plan to join) integration structures led by Russia are not required to ensure the rule of law, defence of civil rights and freedoms, development of civil society, independence of the judicial system, fairness and transparency of election processes. Basic agreements made within the framework of unions pushed by the Russian Federation do not pursue development of democracy in the member countries. 2 • RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №4-5, 2012 EU-UKRAINE-RUSSIA RELATIONS: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS 4. As we noted, Ukraine is beng influenced by integration projects of the EU and Russia. Now, the choice is especially pressing for Ukraine. On the one hand, the Association Agreement with the EU was initialled (although its signing and ratification remain doubtful due to internal problems in Ukraine). On the other – Russia does its best to get Ukraine involved in the Customs Union. After the election of Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, that pressure will only grow. It will apply not only to the Customs Union but also to the Eurasian Union, initiated by Vladimir Putin in his pre-election programme article. And in his inauguration speech on May 7, 2012, Vladimir Putin said: “…All of us should realise that the life of the future generations, the historic prospects of the state and our nation today depend on us…, on our ability to become the leaders and the centre of gravity for the whole of Eurasia”.1 That course has already been formulated in one of the first Presidential decrees “On Measures to Implement the Russian Foreign Policy”. 5. Therefore, Ukraine is facing a choice of the priority line of integration. That choice goes beyond purely economic considerations. In fact, it is a civilisation choice for Ukraine, a choice of basic, fundamental values for its further development. Either Ukraine