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Home , Lytvyn Bloc, Oleksandr Moroz, Volodymyr Lytvyn, Vyacheslav Kyrylenko

Prince of Orange Yatsenyuk to launch his own bloc as he looks to play coalition kingmaker in the Orange civil war

Taras Kuzio

ollowing the collapse of the Orange former parliamentary speaker Arseniy Yatse- a nosedive from which he has never recov- coalition on 16 September it is nyuk will be looking to punch above their ered. As a result Ukrainian politics finds itself Fanybody’s guess what President Viktor weight as they play the role of kingmaker to in a somewhat irrational position with the Yushchenko’s strategy will be. After all, there a future coalition or, if elections are called, two political forces most likely to gain from has been little sign of strategy in the under- provide strength in numbers ahead of the elections (’s BYUT bloc mining of the Yulia Tymoshenko government coming campaign. and the ) not favouring pre- and it looks uncomfortably like there is no term elections while the political force most credible post-undermining strategy either. Who wants new elections? likely to lose ground (Our ) osten- Nevertheless, in the horse-trading that is Recent events have suggested a failure sibly supporting them. Our Ukraine leader currently dominating behind-the-scenes to learn the lessons of September 2005, , undoubtedly with developments in a number of second- when the removal of the first Tymoshenko Bankova’s prodding, last week laid down a tier political leaders led by rising star and government sent the President’s ratings into set of tough conditions for Our Ukraine to :

20 www.businessukraine.com.ua politics 21 VR Speaker Arseniy Arseniy VR Speaker announced Yatsenyuk he last week that his create intends to party. political own popularity Yatsenyuk’s tired with an electorate old faces of the same crucial if prove could into is forced Ukraine of snap round another elections parliamentary Parliamentary Parliamentary kingmaker: Former September 29-October 05, 2008 29-October September

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Orange Prince of of Prince : re-join any coalition with BYUT, but there is from the Orange coalition was only supported Yushchenko’s name. Any national democratic little to suggest that they are in a position to by a slim majority of 39 deputies, just two parties seeking to support the bloc would be be issuing ultimatums. more than the bare minimum required. Five tasked to merge with Our Ukraine, something The President’s ratings are currently a frac- of the Our Ukraine/People’s Self-Defence which they had promised to do prior to the tion of Mrs. Tymoshenko’s, while his political bloc’s nine member parties did not support 2007 elections before baulking at losing party has only a sixth of the support of BYUT. the decision, including the two largest their party fiefdoms. Presumably the logic is In any new election Our Ukraine could actu- – former Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk’s that by adding Mr. Yushchenko’s name the ally find itself failing to make it past the 3% Rukh and Interior Minister ’s President’s 5% support would improve its threshold for entering a new parliament, People’s Self Defence. Lutsenko headed the election chances. with most pollsters giving the party 4% entire bloc going into the 2007 pre-term elec- As the Orange rivals play the percentages support, which is down from 14% in the 2007 tions. Rukh is currently negotiating to join ahead of any coming vote, the role of former elections. One would think that Our Ukraine’s BYUT to become its fourth party member. parliamentary speaker 2% share of the ballot in the May Kyiv city Other defections may be imminent. could well be pivotal. Last week Mr. Yatse- hall elections and their consequent failure to nyuk announced his intention to create his enter the city council would have focused the Lytvyn and the chances own political party, confirming speculation attention of Bankova. Obviously it has not. of a new Orange coalition that he intends to take on a leadership role in Nor is support for the President within A new coalition will be difficult to establish any future coalition talks. As one of the few his dwindling political grouping a foregone because none of the issues that undermined relatively new faces in Ukrainian politics and conclusion. The withdrawal of Our Ukraine the old coalition have been effectively dealt at the still tender age of 34, Mr. Yatsenyuk is with. Demands made by the Tymoshenko widely regarded as the rising star of Ukrainian bloc including the removal of Viktor Baloga politics and his backing could prove invalu- from his post as presidential chief of staff able to the under-fire President. His decision have gone unheard, while Our Ukraine offi- to head up his own party is in keeping with cials have responded with their list of require- modern Ukrainian political tradition: the ments. One potential solution would be the position of parliamentary speaker has regu- construction of a wider coalition to include larly gone to the head of those who have held the Volodymyr . If Mr. Lytvyn’s it, whether Ivan Pliushch, eponymous political force joins BYUT and Our or . In a mature democ- Ukraine in a new, wider Orange coalition this racy such as Britain it would be unthinkable Ukraine is left waiting would improve its cohesion by increasing the for the parliamentary speaker to launch his for the President’s previous slim majority of 228 to a comfortable political project, but in Ukraine it remains decision to either majority of 248 deputies. The Lytvyn bloc did standard practice. re-establish a larger not support the July vote of no confidence, Mr. Yatsenyuk is a Yushchenko loyalist but it also remained outside of coalition talks and the President is thought to see him Orange coalition with in late 2007 following the slim Orange victory as a worthy successor. The main potential BYUT and the Lytvyn in the September 2007 snap poll. sponsors and allies of the Yatsenyuk bloc bloc or, if he decides to Increasing the size of the coalition would would likely come from the notorious “Dear go for broke after the be to BYUT’s advantage but not to Bankova’s. Friends,” as the business wing of Our Ukraine thirty days allowed to The Lytvyn bloc’s additional 20 deputies are mockingly referred to. These big busi- establish a new coalition would curtail the Presidential Secretariat’s ness interests first entered politics in 2002 expires in mid October, ability to blackmail BYUT by threatening in the then newly created Our Ukraine party to disband parliament to withdraw the votes of the 10-15 United which was at the time headed by Viktor Yush- and call fresh elections. Centre party supporters who are regarded as chenko. These Dear Friends have not joined Both scenarios offer most loyal to the President. Mr. Baloga’s United Centre party and are little comfort to Presi- looking for an alternative political vehicle. Mr. The scramble for allies Yatsenyuk’s relatively untarnished reputation dent Yushchenko In the event of a decision by the President and reformist credentials could fit the bill. to disband parliament and call new elec- The presence of former speaker Mr. Yatse- tions, Mr. Yushchenko would be forced to nyuk may also help win over another former place his hopes in a motley array of untried speaker with his own kingmaker potential. political forces and awkward realignments. Many of Mr. Yushchenko’s Dear Friends, The President would likely reject the strategy such as National Bank chairman Petro pursued in the 2002, 2006 and 2007 elections Poroshenko, have had long-term ties to Mr. of establishing a bloc of pro-Yushchenko Lytvyn. Channel 5’s airing of rumours that Mr. parties. Instead, Our Ukraine, which is one of Poroshenko was one of the financiers of the the nine parties in the OU-PSD bloc, would Lytvyn bloc in last year’s elections led to the become the sole electoral vehicle bearing Mr. dismissal of a Channel 5 journalist. Mean-

22 www.businessukraine.com.ua while, Mr. Yushchenko’s personal gratitude Party of Regions would fit. Would they remain if undertaken by Mr. Yushchenko and terrible politics to Mr. Lytvyn is related to his role as parlia- within the Party of Regions as a pro-Yush- if undertaken by Mrs. Tymoshenko? mentary speaker during the Orange Revolu- chenko ‘fifth column’ or would they become tion and in the round-table negotiations that natural members of the Yatsenyuk bloc where No sign of Orange armistice brokered a repeat second round and paved they would rub shoulders with the tradition- President Yushchenko has so far refused to the way for his presidency. The Yatsenuk and ally anti-Tymoshenko Dear Friends? heed BYUT’s demand to remove Mr. Baloga Lytvyn blocs would therefore be fairly logical National Security and Defence secretary because Mr. Yushchenko is convinced that centrist allies. Raisa Bohatyriova was expelled from the Party only Mr. Baloga can ensure he wins a second Another figure with little experience on of Regions on September 1 after she returned term. He has ignored the 72% of the national political stage is Kyiv Mayor from a visit to the US, suggesting that there who do not want him to stand in the 2010 Leonid Chernovetskiy, who could yet form a are also stresses within the famously united presidential election, while heeding the call third pillar of pro-Yushchenko support. Any party of the pro-Russian camp. Party of of 16% of Ukrainians who say he should. As Chernovetskiy bloc would aim to build on his Regions leader was said to the well-known Zerkalo Nedeli commentator success in using his position in Kyiv to win be personally offended by Mrs. Bohatyriova’s Serhiy Rakhmanin wrote last week: ‘Yush- sufficient votes to enter parliament. Ukraine’s response to a question posed by myself at chenko, regardless of everything, does not precedent for this is found in the 1998 elec- a Washington luncheon as to whether she believe in polls. Otherwise he would not be tions when dissident oligarch supported Mr. Yushchenko’s or Mr. Yanu- prepared to take part in the election campaign ensured his new political project Hromada kovych’s stances on Georgia. Mrs. Bohatyriova for a second term. Yushchenko believes in crossed into parliament after winning the gave her strong support to Mr. Yushchenko’s his mission. He believes in administrative majority of its 4.68% votes in its home base position on Georgian territorial integrity and resources. And he believes in Baloga.” of Dnipropetrovsk. A big vote in Kyiv could ridiculed Mr. Yanukovych’s support for Geor- Mr. Yushchenko has made it abundantly also push Mr. Chernovetskiy into parliament gian separatism. The failed Party of Regions clear that he believes a Tymoshenko presi- with a small but strategically important band parliamentary draft in support of South Osse- dency would be a disaster for Ukraine and of deputies. tian and Abkhaz independence was conspicu- that she should be therefore stopped in her Assuming that a reconstituted Our Ukraine ously not supported by 35 Party of Regions tracks at all costs. The August treason charges, together with United Centre and the Yatse- deputies (the Crimean parliament, where the accusations of her involvement in a bizarre nyuk, Lytvyn and Chernovetskiy blocs could Party of Regions controls 50% of seats, was assassination plot against Mr. Baloga and each obtain 3-4% in a new election, this would more successful in adopting a resolution). investigations attempting to link her to Mr. give Mr. Yushchenko between 60-80 deputies The pragmatic wing and the energy lobby Yushchenko’s poisoning all have their origins in parliament. Even this meagre return would within the Party of Regions do not support a in Bankova’s aim to destroy her so that she rely on a gamble that all these four political coalition with BYUT and have long backed a either chooses not to stand in the elections or projects passed the 3% threshold. Even grand coalition with Our Ukraine. The Presi- is unable to do so. assuming all four blocs did enter parliament dential Secretariat’s problem is that its entire this would still only give the President control anti-Tymoshenko campaign since late August A difficult choice of a sixth of deputies. has rested on attacking Mrs. Tymoshenko for for the President In pre-term elections there would be always allegedly contemplating forming a coalition Ukraine is left waiting for the President’s the danger that BYUT would again increase its with the Party of Regions which President decision to either re-establish a larger Orange faction. This is a genuine threat, given that Yushchenko and Mr. Kyrylenko have dubbed a coalition with BYUT and the Lytvyn bloc or, if BYUT remains the only political force to have “pro-Kremlin coalition.” Mr. Kyrylenko, mean- he decides to go for broke after the thirty days accomplished this feat in every election held while, has commented that his party could allowed to establish a new coalition expires in since 2002. Pre-term elections could also lead not form a coalition with the Party of Regions, mid October, to disband parliament and call to an outcome whereby the Party of Regions “because of deep differences over our world fresh elections. The collapse of the coalition increased its vote giving it enough deputies, views.” This is fanciful and flies in the face of was the inevitable outcome of eight months together with the Communists and Lytvyn President’s Yushchenko’s previous support for of undermining the government which bloc, to create a second Anti-Crisis coalition. a broad coalition. climaxed in August with attempts to destroy Currently these three political forces fall just When acting Prime Minister and Our Ukraine Mrs. Tymoshenko’s political credibility. short of a slim majority with 222 deputies. leader was instructed by Both scenarios offer little comfort to Presi- the President to negotiate a grand coalition dent Yushchenko. Either a new and larger Coming to terms with with the Party of Regions following the 2006 Orange coalition will be created, leaving the the Party of Regions elections and when the President instructed PM position in the hands of BYUT, or pre- Even with the appearance of new political Our Ukraine to join the Anti-Crisis coalition term elections are held that at best would forces such as the Yatsenyuk and Cherniv- in August 2006 this was defined by Bankova only give Mr. Yushchenko a similar number of etskiy blocs together with guaranteed support as a positive step towards national unity. deputies to his current total. At worst, a new from the remaining Our Ukraine loyalists, Before BYUT and the Party of Regions have election could leave the President without there remain many question marks over the even formally established a coalition it is any support whatsoever in parliament if his benefits of this strategy. The first is the ques- dubbed as treasonous and pro-Kremlin. Why various allies and loyalists fail to make it past tion of where the so-called pragmatists in the is coalition with the Party of Regions positive the 3% mark. l

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