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Online & Mobile Banking Forecast

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Online & Mobile Banking Forecast SINCE 1994, THE EXCLUSIVE MONTHLY REPORT ON INTERNET BANKING PRODUCTS & MARKETS . Number 176 January 21, 2010 STRATEGIES FOR Online & Mobile Banking Forecast FINANCIAL The next 10 years INSTITUTIONS ____________________________ obile dominated the alt-delivery landscape for the third year in a row. But this year, the channel graduated from Internet banking Mtalk to action, as we saw real innovation and consumer adoption take hold throughout the year: • USAA became the first North American bank to truly Innovations embrace the mobile channel as it surpassed one million users, more than 15% of its customers (see #1, pp. 13-15) Epayments • WV United Credit Union and USAA launched the first iPhone feature that could not easily be replicated online, mobile remote check deposit (see #3, pp. 18-19) Email • Mobank launched the first European all-mobile financial service company, demoing at our Finovate Spring event in April (see video at finovate.com) Marketing • Bank of America doubled its mobile banking base, closing the year at about 4 million users, the largest in Online lending North America by a large margin. The bank’s mobile base alone would make it top-20 retail bank (see #1, pp. 13-15). Social media Penetration of online banking in the U.S. inched up a few percentage points just shy of an important milestone, 50% of all households (see INSIDE forecast, pp. 5-6). Mobile penetration nearly tripled, ending the year at 10 million, more than one in five online banking households. The Past, Present, The biggest hype of the year belonged to person-to-person (P2P) & Future payments, but it will be another year or two before we know if it becomes more than just a niche offering (see #5, pp. 24-25). The Past......................................2 The Present: 2009 results .........3 Other major milestones of 2009: • Intuit acquires Mint (no surprise) and then moves to The Future: Ten-year Forecast .5 migrate the Quicken Online brand into Mint (big surprise; see #4, pp. 20-23) Top 40 Innovations of All Time.8 • Mobile payments at the point of sale being publically Recap of Past Top 10 Winners10 tested via Starbucks mobile app powered by mFoundry (see #6, pp. 26-27) Top 10 Innovations of 2009.....12 • Social media gets transactional: Streaming banking Honorable Mentions ................35 transactions via Twitter at Vantage Credit Union (see #9, pp. 32-33) Top 10 of the Decade...............36 – Jim Bruene, Editor & Founder [email protected] ONLINE BANKING REPORT.COM THE PAST A Look Back Table 1 Online Banking Timeline number of U.S. households using online banking and/or bill payment 57 million 44 million 33 million 20 million 7.0 million 100,000 1.0 million Jan 1994 May 1996 Dec 1998 Dec 2001 Dec 2003 Dec 2006 Dec 2009 Online banking is Boston’s Web lending Eight U.S. Industry execs Mobile is back on Apple’s App built into BayBanks goes mainstream banking embrace the the radar screen Store begins to Microsoft Money creates buzz by with more than companies each online channel as phones change mobile personal finance bagging 100,000 one million card have at least one for sales, service, become commerce and software. users in 60 days. apps per month. million users. and profits. ubiquitous. banking. Source: Online Banking Report estimates based on industry data, plus or minus 10%, Jan. 2010; not to scale very year about this time, we develop a Table 2 10-year forecast (see Table 7, p. 5). Our Online Banking Evolution E first forecast more than ten years ago Product Primary (year-end 1997, OBR 33) predicted that 33 to 50 Phase Period Positioning Market million U.S. households would be banking Beta 1983 to Beats keying data Outliers online by 2010, with a mid-range of 42 million. Novelty 1999 into Quicken According to our latest estimate of 62 million by Beats calling an 800 number; more the end of 2010, we’ll beat even the high-end by Early adopters Version 1.0 1999 to efficient record and early prediction by more than 20% (see Table 7, p. 4). Convenience 2005 keeping and easier mainstream for routine Although online banking turned 26 last year, the transactions first 15 years it was only used by a few thousand Beats all other approaches: better computer hobbyists. Real adoption began in the Version 2.0 2005 to Half the management of Must have 2010 country late 1990s and finally hit the 50% threshold last personal finances year (50% of all U.S. households). with less effort Bank follows you Everyone with Version 3.0 Looking ahead (Table 3), we are beginning the with real-time info, a mobile Mobile 2010+ better security, phone & bank next phase as the mobile channel converges integration faster transactions account with online to provide the majority of Source: Online Banking Report, Dec. 2009 households with powerful banking on the go. Copyright 2009: ONLINE BANKING REPORT (ISSN 1095-2829) is published monthly by Financial Insite Inc., 4739 University Way NE, Suite 1002, Seattle, WA 98105, USA. Phone: +1(206) 517-5021, Fax: +1(206) 524-0351, [email protected]. Subscriptions: US$1,795 per year worldwide, includes paper and electronic editions with online archive access. Editor & Founder: Jim Bruene, [email protected]; Analysts: Andrew Dolbeck, [email protected], Chris Young, [email protected]; Business Manager: Kate Schultz; [email protected]; Marketing Director: Eric Mattson, [email protected]; Circulation: Anita Schultz, [email protected]; Webmaster: Gerry Soroczak, [email protected]; Copy Editor: Jennifer Russell Warning! Federal copyright law prohibits copying this report. Contact [email protected] for reprints or electronic rights. page 2 © ONLINE BANKING REPORT Number 176 January 21, 2010 THE PRESENT Online Banking: 2009 Results uring 2009, online banking grew at about the same pace it had in the prior five years, with an estimated five million net new households banking online and/or via mobile device. The D U.S. total now stands at about 57 million, half of all U.S. households, five-fold growth during the decade (see full details, Table 7, p. 5). Table 3 Consumer Households Using Online Banking: U.S. vs. Worldwide millions of households actively using online banking and/or online bill payment Online Banking Households (millions) 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 Worldwide total 175 150 125 U.S. total 100 75 50 25 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 US 0.6 2.5 4.5 7 10.5 15.5 22 28 33 36 40 44 48 52 57 WW 8 15 23 32 43 55 75 100 130 160 200 235 270 310 370 Source: Online Banking Report estimates, Jan. 2010; accuracy estimated at plus or minus 10% U.S., 25% worldwide Table 4 Annual Growth of U.S. Online Banking Households millions of net new U.S. households and percent change from previous year 2009 10% 5 4 8% 4 2007 9% 4 10% 4 2005 11% 3 9% 5 2003 18% 6 27% 6.5 2001 42% 5 48% 3.5 1999 50% 2.5 56% 1997 80% 2 1.9 320% 1995 0.35 140% Source: Online Banking Report mid-range estimates, Jan. 2010; accuracy estimated at plus or minus 10%; see Table 7, p. 5 for details page 3 © ONLINE BANKING REPORT Number 176 January 21, 2010 THE PRESENT Definition Reading the trade press, you’ll see a variety of totals cited for online and mobile banking totals. Sometimes the numbers appear very different. However, usually when you drill down into the specific definitions, you’ll find that’s where most of the difference occurs. So it’s important to understand what we are measuring. We consider anyone that manages any type of banking or credit account online or through their mobile device to be an “online banking customer.” See Table 5 below for more details. Table 5 OBR Definition: Online Banking Household Someone in the household has done at least ONE of the following online* or mobile activities during the past six months: • Viewed balance or transaction data for a checking account, savings account, CD, credit card, debit card, prepaid card, loan or mortgage • Authorized bill payments or transferred funds to third parties at any bank, non-bank, portal, or card site • Paid a bill at any financial services site such as a credit card issuer Does not include: • Viewing and/or paying a non-financial bill online, e.g., utility bills • Online point-of-sale purchases *Any connection from home, work, school, or other place where data can be viewed through any device (desktop PC, smartphone, tablet, laptop, etc.) Table 6 OBR Track Record: Accuracy of Previous Forecasts millions of U.S. households banking online 2010 Forecast (mid-range) 2010 Forecast (high-end) Original Original Latest Original Latest Forecast Date Forecast Forecast Diff % Diff Forecast Forecast Diff % Diff Dec 1997 (33) 42 mil 61 mil 19 mil +45% 50 mil 61 mil 11 mil +22% Dec 1998 (44) 46 61 15 +33% 57 61 4 +7% Apr 2000 (59) 45 61 16 +36% 55 61 6 +11% Oct 2001 (76) 45 61 16 +36% 55 61 6 +11% Nov 2002 (89) 51 61 10 +20% 61 61 0 none Dec 2003 (103) 52 61 9 +17% 61 61 0 none Dec 2004 (114) 52 61 9 +17% 61 61 0 none Dec 2005 (125) 52 61 9 +17% 61 61 0 none Dec 2006 (137) 52 61 9 +17% 59 61 2 +3% Dec 2007 (150) 59 61 2 +3% 67 61 (6) (9%) Dec 2008 (162) 60 61 1 +2% 67 61 (6) (9%) Source: Online Banking Report, 1997 to 2008 Diff = difference between original forecast amount and latest prediction for year-end 2010 page 4 © ONLINE BANKING REPORT Number 176 January 21, 2010 THE FUTURE 10-Year Forecast: 2010 Through 2019 nline banking has reached the point in the For 2009, we project single-digit growth with net adoption curve where overall market growth of 4 million to 5 million new households.
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