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RIDING THE WEB-STOCK ROLLER COASTER Reprinted from the August 12, 2004 issue of BusinessWeek Online. Copyright © 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies. This reprint implies no endorsement, either tacit or expressed, of any company, product, service or investment opportunity. RIDING THE WEB-STOCK ROLLER COASTER Our BW Web 20 Index tracks a selection of favorite Net stocks, and this column will help interpret the ups and downs he past month has been rotten Just last week, Forrester Research christening the BW Web 20 Index Tfor Internet investors. Stocks raised its e-commerce forecast, pre- – is intended to help aggressive have been hammered since second- dicting U.S. online sales of $227 bil- investors accept the risk inherent in quarter earnings showed Web out- lion in 2007, up from earlier projec- the Web, but balance it by focusing fits growing pretty much as they had tions of $204 billion. Forrester on “real” companies with solid prod- promised – a change from their habit expects e-commerce in the U.S. to ucts, services, and profits. Every of slightly besting quarterly projec- grow 14% annually through 2010 – month, this column will do more than tions. The carnage has been just as three to four times faster than the track how stocks in our index trade – severe in the Real World Internet economy. Meanwhile, growth in it also will help investors figure out Index, a group of Web stocks we Europe is predicted to average 33% which rallies are sustainable and spot picked in 2002 to help ordinary annually through 2009. the bubblicious behavior that earned investors play the Internet without Net investing a bad rap. Another plus: Net stocks’ valuations undue risk. Ten of the stocks in our aren’t as high as urban legends insist. NEW BLOOD. Companies only get portfolio as of the close of trading The 20 stocks in our newly updated into the Web 20 if they make money Aug. 9 tanked after second-quarter index trade at an average of 32 times or are cash-flow positive. They don’t reports – in one case, after a com- this year’s forecasted profits. That’s stay there if they lose money or turn petitor’s report. twice the composite price-earnings cash-flow negative. And they need Is it time to bail out of Net stocks? (p-e) multiple of the Standard & to be leaders in using the Web to Some analysts think so. On July 30, Poor’s 500 – but it’s still way down drive change. Witness how eBay took Merrill Lynch (MER) cut the weight- from the 38 p-e our index had in the idea of a garage sale and used ing of Internet stocks in its model March. Yahoo! (YHOO) and eBay the Internet to create a global mar- technology portfolio, citing weak (EBAY) still trade at 83 and 64 times ketplace. We cribbed our philosophy earnings surprises and deteriorating earnings, but most companies’ stocks from the best: Legg Mason Value momentum in stock prices. Even are priced for much less aggressive Trust, a fund that has beaten the Google, the search engine whose growth. And valuations are offset by S&P for 13 straight years. Not sur- upcoming IPO was a hotly awaited the fact that the average Internet prisingly, we like a lot of the same bellwether for a recovering market, marketing and media company is stocks: Web 20 members eBay, Ama- is under fire. “The Internet will take expected to boost profits 40% in 2004 zon (AMZN), and IAC/InterActive it in the chin for a while,” says and 39% next year, according to (IACI) are all in Value Trust’s top 10 Steven Milunovich, global technology Piper Jaffray analyst Safa Rashtchy. holdings. strategist at Merrill Lynch. “Tech Profits for companies in the S&P 500 Still, it’s essential to fix your investors are getting more risk- are expected to grow 10%. averse.” mistakes. Effective at the close of So the answer isn’t to bail out – it’s trading Aug. 10, we’re dropping four BAD RAP. The fundamentals suggest to invest smart. The Real World In- companies from our Index: low-cost a more promising outlook, however. ternet Index – which we’re now Internet service provider United On- Net Worth line (UNTD), online conferencing ROOM TO GROW. Our index has Back when Internet stocks were software provider WebEx Communi- bested the market for most of the busting, Value Trust manager cations (WEBX), Web advertising-serv- last two years, and the biggest gains William H. Miller III, which already ices company DoubleClick (DLCK), and came from having guts at times like had a huge stake in Amazon, bought Digital Insight (DGIN), which makes these. The BW Web 20 was first pub- more shares for as little as $6 and software for banks to run online bank- lished (under its old name) in Au- change. Miller likes to point out ing sites. The four were jettisoned not gust, 2002 – about two months be- to his staff that lower prices mean fore Web stocks bottomed out. It just for poor performance, but because better prospective returns, says jumped 71% in its first year, vs. a Michael J. Mauboussin, chief they face strategic challenges and fresh, 6% rise for the S&P 500. Only since strategist for Legg Mason Funds tougher competition. the last revision, in March of this Management. The companies we’re adding repre- year, has our index underperformed a sent some of the fastest-growing major market index, falling 11% vs. Is that still the case? The numbers niches on the Web. They are: the S&P 500’s 7% decline. Even so, indicate yes. Even Milunovich says, the Web 20 has still beaten the 13% “I’m not that negative, looking out a Aquantive (AQNT): This Seattle- dip in the Nasdaq composite index couple of years.” With less than 7% based online ad agency competes since Mar. 1, 2004. of U.S. retailing and 5% of U.S. ad- with DoubleClick, but it’s better Retreats like these are buying op- vertising done online, it’s early to diversified. It’s also making an portunities for true Net believers. say the party’s over. interesting play into the fast-growing pay-for-performance advertising BW WEB 20 INDEX market, charging only when an ad P/E PEG Return Since actually leads directly to a sale. CompanyRatio Ratio 03/01/04 (%) Amazon.com 37 1.2 -15 Blue Nile (NILE): The online jeweler Ameritrade 16 1-37 is taking the diamond business by Aquantive 33 1.2 -5 storm. More than 100 brick-and-mor- Blue Nile 44 1.4 12* tar stores would be required to du- Checkfree 21 1.1 -10 plicate the $129 million in sales Blue CTrip.com International 35 0.9 2 Nile handled through a small ware- Digital River 21 0.8 8 house last year, jewelry industry EBay 64 1.7 10 analyst Ken Gassman says. Forrester E*Trade 13 0.8 -24 sees online jewelry and luxury-goods IndyMac Bancorp 10 0.6 -1 sales doubling by 2007. Infosys 30 1.1 13 Infosys Technologies (INFY): While IAC/InterActiveCorp 25 1.2 -31 this Indian outsourcing company is- Netflix 34 0.8 -54 n’t a classic Internet outfit, the Net Priceline 22 2.2 -18 makes it possible for it to service Sina 18 0.5 -53 clients thousands of miles away. Symantec 29 1.8 10 Plus, it has something the Web 20 University of Phoenix Online 45 1.3 -6 hasn’t looked for in the past – a Websense 37 1.6 33 2.6% dividend. Yahoo 83 2.4 24 IndyMac Bancorp (NDE): This 1- 800-Flowers 21 0.6 -20 Pasadena (Calif.)-based bank man- S&P 500 Index 16 1.5 -7 ages its business through a Web-co- * Blue Nile return is measured from IPO price on May 20 ordinated network of mortgage bro- Dropped from Index, effective August 10: United Online, DoubleClick, Digital Insight, WebEx Communications kers and its own consumer site. It P/Es are based on estimates for calendar 2004, except UOPX, which is based on fiscal 2004, ending in August was a member of the original index The BW Web 20 Index is 100 shares of each company, adjusted for any splits after a company was added to in 2002, but we dropped it last Au- the Index. The index includes 200 shares of Netflix, Yahoo, Symantec and EBay DATA: BLOOMBERG FINANCIAL MARKETS, CBS MARKETWATCH, YAHOO FINANCE. gust, betting rising interest rates t was not part original of article. would hurt its stock. But shares of By Timothy J. Mullaney this highly efficient industry leader have risen 56% since. (Ouch!) We Mullaney is BW’s e-Business editor, based in New York repent, and they’re back in. Edited by Patricia O’Connell Graphic callou Graphic Reprinted from BusinessWeek Online, August 12, 2004, copyright by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., with all rights reserved. This reprint implies no endorsement, either tacit or expressed, of any company, product, service or investment opportunity..
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