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ECONOMY MODELS Assessing Economic, Energy And INNOVATIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES IN ENERGY- ECONOMY MODELS Assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades doctor rerum politicarum (Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaft) eingereicht an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin von Diplom Volkswirtin Katja Schumacher (geb. am 26. Nov. 1968 in Düsseldorf) Präsident der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin: Prof. Dr. Christoph Markschies Dekan der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät Prof. Oliver Günther, Ph.D. Gutachter/Gutachterin: 1. Prof. Dr. Claudia Kemfert 2. Prof. Dr. Heinz Welsch eingereicht: 18. April 2007 Tag des Kolloquiums: 18. Juli 2007 Abstract Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international competitiveness and economic output. Keywords: Energy technologies, electricity generation, iron and steel production, technological change, learning-by-doing, general equilibrium modelling, hybrid modelling, climate policy, international trade. Zusammenfassung Die Einführung neuartiger Energietechnologien wird allgemein als der Schlüssel zur Senkung klimaschädlicher Treibhausgase angesehen. Allerdings ist die Abbildung derartiger Technologien in numerischen Modellen zur Simulation und ökonomischen Analyse von energie- und klimaschutzpolitischen Maßnahmen vielfach noch rudimentär. Die Dissertation entwickelt neue Ansätze zur Einbindung von technologischen Innovationen in energie- ökonomische allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle, mit dem Ziel den Energiesektor realitätsnäher abzubilden. Die Dissertation adressiert einige der Hauptkritikpunkte an allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodellen zur Analyse von Energie- und Klimapolitik: Die fehlende sektorale und technologische Disaggregation, die beschränkte Darstellung von technologischem Fortschritt, und das Fehlen von einem weiten Spektrum an Treibhausgasminderungsoptionen. Die Dissertation widmet sich zwei Hauptfragen: (1) Wie können technologische Innovationen in allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle eingebettet werden? (2) Welche zusätzlichen und politikrelevanten Informationen lassen sich durch diese methodischen Erweiterungen gewinnen? Die Verwendung eines sogenannten Hybrid- Ansatzes, in dem neuartige Technologien für Stromerzeugung und Eisen- und Stahlherstellung in ein dynamisch multi-sektorales CGE Modell eingebettet werden, zeigt, dass technologiespezifische Effekte von großer Bedeutung sind für die ökonomische Analyse von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen, insbesondere die Effekte hinsichtlich von Technologiewechsel und dadurch bedingten Änderungen der Input- und Emissionsstrukturen. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Dissertation, dass Lerneffekte auf verschiedenen Stufen der Produktionskette abgebildet werden müssen: Für regenerative Energien, zum Beispiel, nicht nur bei der Anwendung von Stromerzeugungsanlagen, sondern ebenso auf der vorgelagerten Produktionsstufe bei der Herstellung dieser Anlagen. Die differenzierte Abbildung von Lerneffekten in Exportsektoren, wie zum Beispiel Windanlagen, verändert die Wirtschaftlichkeit und die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und hat wichtige Implikationen für die ökonomische Analyse von Klimapolitik. Schlagwörter: Energietechnologien, Stromerzeugung, Eisen- und Stahlproduktion, technologischer Wandel, Lerneffekte, allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle, Hybridmodellierung, Klimapolitik, internationaler Handel. Table of Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Energy-economy-environment modeling............................................................... 2 1.2 Innovation and technological change in energy-economy-environment models... 6 1.3 Goal and structure of dissertation......................................................................... 12 1.4 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................. 16 1.5 References ............................................................................................................ 17 2 Electricity sector innovations in climate policy modeling for Germany.................... 23 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 23 2.2 German electricity sector...................................................................................... 25 2.3 SGM-Germany ..................................................................................................... 29 2.4 Analysis and results.............................................................................................. 32 2.4.1 Technology choice................................................................................... 33 2.4.2 Electricity sector results........................................................................... 36 2.4.3 Economic and emissions results............................................................... 38 2.5 Summary and conclusions.................................................................................... 42 2.6 References ............................................................................................................ 44 3 An innovative CGE approach for the inclusion of industrial technologies in energy-economy models.................................................................................................. 46 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 46 3.2 Methods ................................................................................................................ 50 3.2.1 Benchmark data........................................................................................ 51 3.2.2 Technology-based approach..................................................................... 52 3.2.3 Aggregate production function approach................................................. 55 3.2.4 CGE framework ....................................................................................... 56 3.2.5 Technical change...................................................................................... 57 3.3 Iron and steel technologies ................................................................................... 58 3.3.1 Background on production routes ............................................................ 58 3.3.2 Production costs and energy use for iron and steel .................................. 64 3.4 Analysis and results.............................................................................................. 67 3.4.1 Technology-based analysis....................................................................... 68 3.4.2 Aggregate CES versus technology-based approach................................. 74 3.4.3 Economic and emissions results............................................................... 77 3.5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 79 3.6 References ............................................................................................................ 81 4 Economic comparison of GHG mitigation strategies................................................... 87 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 87 4.2 Background........................................................................................................... 89 4.3 Methods ...............................................................................................................
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