Translating Risk Assessment to Contingency Planning for CO2 Geologic Storage: A Methodological Framework Authors Karim Farhat a and Sally M. Benson b a Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA b Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA Contact Information Karim Farhat:
[email protected] Sally M. Benson:
[email protected] Corresponding Author Karim Farhat 475 Via Ortega Huang Engineering Center, 245A Stanford, CA 94305, USA Email:
[email protected] Tel: +1-650-644-7451 May 2016 1 Abstract In order to ensure safe and effective long-term geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2), existing regulations require both assessing leakage risks and responding to leakage incidents through corrective measures. However, until now, these two pieces of risk management have been usually addressed separately. This study proposes a methodological framework that bridges risk assessment to corrective measures through clear and collaborative contingency planning. We achieve this goal in three consecutive steps. First, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach is adopted to characterize potential leakage features, events and processes (FEP) in a Bayesian events tree (BET), resulting in a risk assessment matrix (RAM). The RAM depicts a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set of leakage scenarios with quantified likelihood, impact, and tolerance levels. Second, the risk assessment matrix is translated to a contingency planning matrix (CPM) that incorporates a tiered- contingency system for risk-preparedness and incident-response. The leakage likelihood and impact dimensions of RAM are translated to resource proximity and variety dimensions in CPM, respectively. To ensure both rapid and thorough contingency planning, more likely or frequent risks require more proximate resources while more impactful risks require more various resources.