The Fate of the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts: A Structured Decision Making Process

Presented to Professor Tim McDaniels for the course Planning Practice Methods (PLAN 525)

Ignatius But (45624103) Ernette Hutchings-Mason (81260151) Fausto Inomata (82975153) Alex Jia (81920150) Stefan Larose (54852025) Andrew Martin (82798159) Cail Smith (81934151)

12 November 2015

GEORGIA AND DUNSMUIR VIADUCTS – FINAL REPORT

Table of Contents

1. Introduction ...... 2 2. History, Background and Decision Context ...... 2 3. Structured Decision Making Context ...... 3 3.1 What is the decision to be made, by whome, and when? ...... 3 3.2 Objectives ...... 3 3.2.1 The Means-Ends Diagram ...... 3 3.2.2 Objectives, Sub-Objectives and Performance Measures ...... 4 3.3 Alternatives ...... 6 3.4 Expected Consequences ...... 9 3.5 Uncertanties ...... 11 3.6 Key Tradeoffs ...... 12 3.7 Implementation ...... 13 4. Recommended Next Steps ...... 14 5. Conclusion ...... 14 6. References ...... 16

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1. Introduction The process of Structured Decision Making (SDM) is a proven method for reaching a resolution, particularly in complex decisions that involve many stakeholders and interest groups. The idea of Structured Decision Making is eloquently outlined in the book Structured Decision Making by Gregory et al. (2012). This approach is effective because it systematizes the consultative process into an objective procedure that produces high-quality results and allows decision makers to more heartily defend their conclusions. For the above reasons, the project team used an SDM approach to create and evaluate a partially hypothetical decision process regarding the removal of the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts in , .

2. History, Background, and Decision Context The first Georgia Viaduct was originally built in 1915 so vehicle traffic could bypass industrial and tidal water areas when entering and exiting (City of Vancouver, 13 October 2015). In 1972, the Georgia Viaduct was twinned with the Dunsmuir Viaduct, which were both intended to become part of a city-wide freeway project. However, the freeway was never completed. As land use in the area has changed, the viaducts have become a psychological and physical barrier between neighbourhoods, particularly affecting Strathcona to the north-east of the viaducts. These viaducts are not only a barrier to nearby community connections, but are also a painful reminder of the mistreatment experienced by various populations during the construction of the viaducts including African Canadians, Chinese Canadians, Strathcona residents, and others. Today, the City of Vancouver is considering demolishing the viaducts to open valuable land for development, to improve transportation networks in the area, and to avoid exorbitant maintenance and upgrading costs1. The viaducts currently operate at only 40% capacity, serve minimal purpose since the municipal freeway project was not completed, and are in need of costly seismic upgrades in order to meet earthquake safety standards (City of Vancouver, 13 October 2015). There is a window of opportunity for the City of Vancouver to upgrade the viaducts in preparation for a possible seismic event in the future and as such, the City of Vancouver is considering whether the benefits outweigh the drawbacks to this decision. This report will outline

1 As the situation with the City’s viaducts proposal is changing daily, this report will not be able to address all materials and decisions currently being considered.

2 GEORGIA AND DUNSMUIR VIADUCTS – FINAL REPORT the steps of the Structured Decision Making process and how they can support the decision to be made.

3. Structured Decision Making Context 3.1 What is the decision to be made, by whom, and when? The first step of the SDM approach is to clearly define the decision to be made, by whom, and when. The decision to be made is: What is the best alternative for the Georgia and Dunsmuir viaducts, as well as the surrounding area? Vancouver City Council is the final decision maker for this project, but input is being provided by residents, business owners, developers, professionals, and the City Planning Department. City Council has recently decided to go ahead with the option of tearing down both viaducts, however, for the purposes of this project the analysis team will ignore this fact and proceed as if the decision has not yet been made.

3.2 Objectives Objectives make up the primary evaluation criteria when comparing and evaluating alternatives. In this study, primary objectives were identified through a process of brainstorming and creating an influence diagram, then the ends and means were separated (see Figure 1), which produced five ‘ends’.

3.2.1 The Means-Ends Diagram The means-ends diagram presented in Figure 1 separates the objectives that the team brainstormed into means and ends. The ends are the end goals for this project while the means are the ways to achieve these goals. Possible evaluation methods are also included in the diagram. This diagram was produced early on in the decision-sketching process, and is a snapshot that shows the evolution of the team’s progress. It was used as a tool to produce the final list of objectives, sub- objectives and performance measures; therefore, it does not include all of the final objectives, sub- objectives and performance measures in the diagram itself.

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Figure 1. Means-ends diagram for the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts decision making process.

3.2.2. Objectives, Sub-Objectives, and Performance Measures After later consulting with and receiving input from our SDM advisor Tim McDaniels, the team arrived at a final list of eight objectives. Each of the objectives is made up of a series of sub- objectives, totaling 18 sub-objectives. Each sub-objective has a preferred direction identified (where appropriate), and is described by at least one performance measure, totaling 28 performance measures (of which 25 are quantifiable). Objectives are listed below (bolded), with sub-objectives nested below these, and performance measures in italics:

1. Keep costs down (use taxpayer money efficiently) • Decrease annual maintenance costs • Decrease potential repair costs in case of major earthquake • Keep down capital costs for replacement infrastructure (now or in the future) • Increase funding from higher levels of government

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2. Increase environmental quality (requires an Environmental Impact Assessment) • Avoid adverse effects of environmental contaminants in soil: m3 of contaminated soil safely addressed (by incineration, burying, removal from site, secured in place, etc.) • Improve air quality by decreasing greenhouse gas emissions: measured concentration of airborne pollutants near roadways

3. Reconnect communities • Socially: number of new community amenities in site area o Hectares of park space (for different demographics’ use: youth, skateboarders, tourists, elderly, etc.) o Number of new free indoor spaces (e.g. community centres) o Number of new cafes and restaurants • Physically: o Decrease hectares of empty/dead space: hectares of empty lots and brownfields o Improve pedestrian networks: § Minutes walking north-to-south across site § Minutes walking east-to-west across site § Desirability rating of an improved sea wall (for walkers; constructed scale)

4. Improve city reputation and image • Number of new high-profile urban design feature elements (that are likely to get coverage in media outside of Vancouver)

5. Increase housing • Increase number of units of social (subsidized) housing • Increase number of units of affordable housing (as defined by the City of Vancouver) • Increase number of units of market rental housing

6. Avoid adverse effects on mobility • Improve transportation networks for users of bikes, cars and emergency response vehicles o Minutes cycling north-to-south across site o Minutes cycling east-to-west across site o Desirability rating of an improved sea wall (for cyclists; constructed scale) o Minutes driving north-to-south across site o Minutes driving east-to-west across site o Minutes driving east-to-west across site for emergency vehicles (to new potential hospital site, from both downtown and )

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7. Improve public health • Increase number of people using active modes of transportation o Counts of pedestrians o Counts of cyclists • Increase space and facilities for sporting activities o m2 of new land for sports and recreation facilities o m2 of new storage facilities for watersports (such as for dragon boat storage, etc.)

8. Avoid adverse impacts on neighbours during construction • Decrease duration of potential construction (in days) • Minimize noise, dust, demolitions, construction vehicle access, and other impacts

3.3 Alternatives In order to address the objectives, a set of alternatives was formulated. The alternatives under consideration are grouped into six portfolios focused on relevant themes: environment, community, transportation, economy, a base case scenario, and the concept proposed by the City of Vancouver. Each portfolio is a package of specific elements and provides a comprehensive approach to the decision situation. These portfolios reflect the different priorities across the objectives, and as such, allow for real options and choices for decision makers. Environmentally Focused Alternative This alternative emphasizes elements related to the environment, parks, green space, and sustainable forms of transportation. In essence, this alternative maximizes the natural features of this city planning challenge. A major aspect of this alternative is that the viaducts will not be torn down due to the high amount of embedded energy within the built structures and the potential to repurpose their function. The following features are components that are included as part of this alternative: bioremediation of contaminated soil, water squares2, park space (ground-level and elevated), community gardens, recreational space, multi-use pathways, bike lanes, car-free viaducts, affordable and social housing, and maintenance and reinforcement of the viaducts.

2 A water square is a plaza that is intended to flood when there are heavy rains and acts as a holding reservoir for runoff water until it can be absorbed by drainage infrastructure. These water squares can be useful in areas prone to flooding, such as the lands surrounding the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts (De Urbanisten, 2015).

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Community Focused Alternative This alternative combines elements and features normally associated with community building and those that foster neighbourliness and social cohesion. Accordingly, items associated with this alternative emphasize ways to bring the communities surrounding the study area together as well as to promote the creation of a new sub-neighbourhood in the study area. By tearing down the viaducts, the following features can be included as part of this alternative: ground-level park, public plazas, water squares, recreation spaces, a community centre, small cafes, community gardens, social housing, multi-use pathways, new bus routes, new traffic route(s), bioremediation of contaminated soil, affordable housing, commercial space, and market housing. Transportation Focused Alternative The transportation focused alternative is organized by mode share options and by the type and variety of corridors possible in the area. The area is significantly influenced by the transportation corridors that surround and pass through it. By tearing down the viaducts, this alternative aims to deliver optimal ways to travel through the site using multiple forms of transportation. The area is considered a bottleneck at the edge of downtown, hence, increasing transportation choices for citizens is key to this alternative. The following features are components that are included as part of this alternative: bike lanes, multi-use pathways, new traffic routes, new bus routes, parking spots, a ground-level park, social housing, affordable housing, market housing, commercial space, and soil remediation. Economically Focused Alternative This alternative attempts to minimize the cost of the project for the City of Vancouver. The project seeks to maximize the amount of land that can be sold in order to generate revenues for the City by tearing down both viaducts. The following features are included in this alternative: the sale of government lands, affordable and market housing, commercial use, cost-effective soil remediation, water squares, ground-level park, parking spaces, re-paved roadway, and bike lanes. Base Case Scenario (Status Quo) In this scenario, the viaducts will be maintained in their current form, while development will proceed in the area surrounding the viaducts. Development in the study area is poised to proceed regardless of the decision to remove the viaducts. If the status quo is maintained and development proceeds, there are still many uncertainties that will not be explored in this project

7 GEORGIA AND DUNSMUIR VIADUCTS – FINAL REPORT such as “what are the consequences for the study area?”. This scenario requires that the viaducts be seismically upgraded to meet structural codes. City of Vancouver Proposal The City of Vancouver Proposal is an alternative that has not yet been fully developed as of yet, but will involve the removal of both viaducts and the construction of new roadways at grade to accommodate traffic and improve traffic flow. This alternative will also include land transfers between the City of Vancouver and land developers in order to proceed with new traffic routing and to optimize the development potential for both the City and private land developers.

Below are summary tables of the four alternatives created by the analysis team (Figure 2): Alternative 1 Alternative 2 (Environmentally Focused) (Community Focused) Viaducts Remain and be upgraded Be torn down will… Alternative • Remediation of Soil • Remediation of Soil Component • Water Squares and Park Space • Park Space and Public Plaza • Community Garden • Water Squares • Recreational Space • Recreational Space • Multiuse Pathways and Bike Lanes • Community Centre and Gardens • Car-Free Viaduct (Pathways and • Small Cafes & Retail Stores Garden) • Social and Affordable Housing • Affordable and Social Housing • Multiuse Pathways • Maintenance of Viaducts • New Bus Routes and Traffic Routes Alternative 3 Alternative 4 (Transportation Focused) (Economically Focused) Viaducts Be torn down Be torn down will… Alternative • Remediation of Soil • Lowest cost remediation of Soil Component • Park Space • Park Space and Water Squares • Social and Affordable Housing • Recreational Space • At-Market Housing • Sell or Lease all Government Land • Commercial Space • Affordable and At-Market Housing • Bicycle lanes and Multiuse Pathways • Commercial Space • New Traffic Routes and Bus Routes • Bicycle Lanes • Additional Street Parking • Additional Street Parking

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3.4 Expected Consequences The Consequence Table is a matrix that informs the performance of each alternative by the eight objectives. In order to evaluate the alternative portfolios the team created, the alternatives are rated between 1 and 5. On this scale, a rating of 1 means the objective is not well met, and a rating of 5 means the objective is being met to the fullest extent possible (see Figure 3). The team acknowledges the limitations of the rating system, as it does not inform the actual difference between classifications, and it lacks scientific rigor. The positives and negatives for each alternative are listed in a second chart, to support in creating future iterations of the alternatives.

Objectives (below) Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4 (Environmentally (Community (Transportation (Economically focused) focused) focused) focused)

Keep costs down 1 2 2 5

Increase 5 3 3 1 environmental quality

Reconnect 4 5 4 3 communities

Improve city 4 4 2 2 reputation and image

Increase housing 2 5 5 4

Avoid adverse effects 1 (could be higher 4 5 3 on mobility in the long term)

Improve public health 5 4 3 2

Avoid adverse 5 1 1 1 impacts on neighbours during construction

Figure 3. Consequence table for the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts project. The alternatives have been ranked for their favourability towards meeting each objective, based on value judgments made by the project team. A ranking of 1 is the least favourable, while a ranking of 5 is the most favourable. The City of Vancouver proposal and the Status Quo option have not been evaluated in this table due to the fact that there are many unknowns in both of these alternatives and many of the plans in these options have not been fully explained, thus making it too difficult to evaluate based on the objectives set out by the project team.

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Alternative 1 Alternative 2 (Environmentally Focused) (Community Focused) Key Maintain and upgrade viaducts Tear viaducts down and build new Element affordable housing and amenities Pros • Reduces environmental impact as • Increased rental housing stock all soil will be remediated • Reconnect Strathcona and Chinatown • Reduces construction impacts with Neighbourhoods (noise and pollution) as viaducts • New community facilities remain • New housing will be created Cons • Greater cost than other • Construction impacts will last three to alternatives as long-term five years maintenance and seismic • Affordable housing and community improvement are expensive facilities are expensive and do not • Viaducts continue to be barrier to generate capital connectivity • Community gardens and other activities • Viaducts take up land that could require complete treatment of otherwise be used for housing and contaminated soil amenities Alternative 3 Alternative 4 (Transportation Focused) (Economically Focused) Key Replace viaducts with at grade Tear viaducts down and sell or lease land to Element transportation networks developers Pros • More transit and cycle paths will • Leasing or selling land will generate encourage active transportation revenue • Some land would be sold to offset • Increased housing supply costs • Increased connectivity • New housing will be created Cons • Potential negative impacts on • Potential future health or environmental community from construction and impacts of low cost remediation of new street network contaminated soil • More at-grade traffic could • Negative impacts of construction on increase pollution exposure and neighbours potential conflicts between • Developer actions and plans difficult to transportation modes regulate • Not all costs will be offset

Figure 4: Consolidated list of the pros and cons of each of the four alternatives.

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3.5 Uncertainties There are several key uncertainties that could impact the decision at hand. Firstly, the level of contamination in the soil on the site is unknown. The soil is composed of excavated fill from the Grandview Cut, construction waste from Expo ’86, and waste from heavy industries that were previously operating in the area, including a coal gasification plant. Although the City of Vancouver has conducted some borehole investigations to estimate the amount of contamination present in the soil, the extent of this contamination and its environmental impact will be unknown until excavation begins (City of Vancouver, 2011). As such, the cost and environmental impact of soil remediation is uncertain. Future population and employment growth are another great uncertainty. Currently, the majority of all jobs in the region are located in the downtown core and the study area serves as a major transportation connection between downtown, the northeastern section of the city, and cities to the east of Vancouver (City of Vancouver, 2011). However, the regional population is expected to grow by one million residents over the next 25 years (Metro Vancouver, 2011). Where this new population will live and work will have significant impacts on travel patterns in the study area. If the majority of employment growth remains centered in downtown and the population increases significantly in the eastern cities, it may cause much greater demand on the transportation network than anticipated. While many of the alternatives in this document explore non-automobile options for transportation, which would help to alleviate increased congestion due to reduced road capacity, the extent to which any of these proposed changes will be able to accommodate future traffic congestion is unknown. It remains to be seen whether the recent trends in travel mode share will continue to change, favouring non-automobile travel. Whether or not any of these proposed network changes will be able to accommodate future travel patterns is therefore unknown. The final cost and funding sources for the project also remain uncertain. This analysis uses cost estimates without in-depth financial data on the proposed alternatives. Full costing of the project will only be possible once the final designs are made. Even then, projects of this size are often subject to cost overruns due to fluctuations in labour and material costs. An important consideration with regards to this decision is how the project will be funded. The City of Vancouver has stated that they anticipate that a portion of public benefits will be funded by the Province of

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British Columbia (City of Vancouver, 2015). The Province stands to receive substantial fees from private land developers if future developments in the study area surpass set density thresholds. The City of Vancouver intends on asking the Province to contribute a portion of these funds to the neighbourhood to fund public benefits (City of Vancouver, 2015). This is subject to negotiations between the two levels of government. Thus, it is uncertain how the wide range of public benefits that are recommended in many of the alternatives will be funded.

3.6 Key Trade-offs In the Structured Decision Making process, once alternatives and their consequences have been outlined, stakeholders must evaluate these against their personal and professional values. When considering the future of the area around the viaducts, several key trade-offs emerged between the four alternatives created by the analysis team. The environmentally focused portfolio has several key positive and negative aspects for Vancouver and local residents. First, it is the type of green leadership project that will contribute to Vancouver’s “Greenest City” brand. The short term impact on nearby neighbourhoods will also be low as construction in the area would be minor since the viaducts would remain. One of the trade- offs for these benefits is the high cost of this development. The remediation and seismic upgrading costs will be high, and the cost will not be offset by capital generated from selling or leasing land. Without the creation of new residential buildings on this land, the project fails to contribute to to fulfilling housing demands. Although the city might be interested in environmentally conscious options, the trade-offs required may not generate sufficient public or private support. In contrast, the economically focused portfolio would create more housing and significantly offset the cost to the city. Since this portfolio focuses on profit generation, as much land as possible must become market housing or commercial space. This comes at the cost of a lack of environmental alternatives within the portfolio, potentially negatively impacting the “Greenest City” brand. Additionally, although many new units would be created, the number that are affordable or subsidized would be kept as low as possible. This option may be attractive to financial conservatives, but could hurt the City’s dominant political party, Vision Vancouver, during the next election as they are often portrayed in the media as giving too much favour to private development.

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The community and transportation focused portfolios are quite similar in their approach and how they balance meeting the objectives. They are both costly (with some expenses offset by the selling or leasing of land) and both have short-term adverse effects on the community during construction. Both projects create positive impacts on public health and community connections. Given this is the last significant parcel of unused land near the downtown core, these alternatives make good use of this land for housing and green space. These two alternatives will likely satisfy the most stakeholders, to varying degrees. If deciding between community and transportation focused portfolios, the city must choose an option that will do more to enhance the city’s image, improve public health, and improve connectivity. The community focused portfolio would deliver more public amenities such as recreation facilities, a community centre, and community gardens. It would encourage increased social activity and be seen as an iconic project in the North American context. The transportation focused option would be similar but would include better connectivity for all transportation modes, thus sacrificing some community space. Ultimately, the city’s values regarding trade-offs will determine which decision they make.

3.7 Implementation The first step to implementation would be the selection of a portfolio of alternatives by the City Council. Following this approval, the City and private land developers would need to jointly re- negotiate any agreements they have. The City will also need to refine the site plan and negotiate to sell or lease any additional open lands for development. In the case of the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts, there is little chance of monitoring for adaptive management of the structures as they cannot be rebuilt. However, monitoring before and after the implementation of each alternative can provide information on how well each choice performs as a reference for future decisions. Several individual elements of the alternatives could be continuously monitored, particularly the less costly and more operationally focused alternatives such as the implementation of new bike lanes, bus routes and parking spaces. These elements could be enhanced by monitoring the volume of cyclists, the number of bus passengers, and occupancy of parking spaces, for example.

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4. Recommended Next Steps The next steps for the Structured Decision Making process would include the refinement of the portfolios by iteration, creating a more balanced set of alternatives. The alternatives presented in this report could become bookends, as they focus on single objectives or themes. The SDM method suggests that the next step would be ruling out portfolios by dominance and using criteria to test for sensitivity. A quick assessment of the consequence table included in this report shows that there is no dominated portfolio: each one performs better than the others in at least one objective. There is no criterion insensitiveness, as all alternatives perform differently. The team also realizes the need for more robust performance measures. Even though the units proposed here could measure how well each objective is achieved, the group found it difficult to define natural performance measures without a more detailed project. At this stage it would also be possible to add new objectives and alternatives, as this report only encompasses the first iteration of the SDM method. Nevertheless, it is important to define a deadline for new objectives and alternatives. Next steps would refine those portfolios by iteratively rearranging the existing alternatives into more balanced groups. Employing a preference exercise and swing-weighting could help to clarify biases, and assess the most valued alternatives while eliminating less effective alternatives. Ultimately, a decision must be made as to what alternative best suits the City’s values.

5. Conclusion As explained in this report, the future of the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts is a contentious issue because of the tumultuous history of the viaducts and the many stakeholders who will be positively and negatively affected by the decision made by City Council. This report used the process laid out in the book Structured Decision Making by Gregory et al. (2012) to frame the initial question of “what is the best alternative for the Georgia and Dunsmuir viaducts, as well as the surrounding area?”, and to create and evaluate several alternatives based on eight objectives. The objectives presented in this report attempt to parallel the City of Vancouver’s values, however these objectives are merely hypothetical, created for the sake of this project. These eight objectives led to the establishment of a set of six alternatives, four of which are portfolios focused

14 GEORGIA AND DUNSMUIR VIADUCTS – FINAL REPORT on specific themes (bookends), as well as the status quo option and the City of Vancouver’s current proposal. Each of the alternatives had uncertainties and tradeoffs which were also discussed. In the end, the decision made by the City of Vancouver will be a decision that is determined by the values of the City Council and the values of Vancouver residents, because none of the alternatives is a clear choice in objective terms. The decision that is made will impact how the City of Vancouver is perceived going into the future and should not be taken lightly. As such, the project team hopes that this report will be useful for anyone looking to gain insight into the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts decision making process.

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6. References

City of Vancouver (2015). Removal of the Georgia and Dunsmuir Viaducts. Retrieved November 10, 2015 from http://vancouver.ca/files/cov/2015-Staff-Report-Removal-of- the-Georgia-and- Dunsmuir-Viaducts.pdf

City of Vancouver (2015, October 13). The Future of Vancouver's viaducts: In-depth. Retrieved October 28, 2015 from http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/viaducts-study- in-depth.aspx

City of Vancouver (2011). Viaducts and False Creek Flats Planning: Eastern Core Strategy. Retrieved November 7, 2015 from http://vancouver.ca/docs/eastern-core/core-strategy- council- report.pdf

De Urbanisten (2015). Benthemplein Water Square - A place for storm water. Landscape Architecture Europe, On the move. 4:182-183.

Gregory, R. et al. (2012). Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices. Wiley-Blackwell: West Sussex, UK.

Metro Vancouver (2011). About Metro Vancouver 2040: Shaping our Future. Retrieved November 7, 2015 from http://www.metrovancouver.org/services/regional-planning/ metro- vancouver-2040/about-metro -2040/Pages/default.aspx

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