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The Annexation of Crimea IB GLOBAL POLITICS THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA CASE STUDY UWC COSTA RICA WWW.GLOPOIB.WORDPRESS.COM WWW.GLOPOIB.WORDPRESS.COM 1 MAP Map taken from the Economist website at https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/06/08/crimea-is-still-in- limbo-five-years-after-russia-seized-it WWW.GLOPOIB.WORDPRESS.COM 2 INTRODUCTION Ukraine’s most prolonged and deadly crisis By 2010, Ukraine’s fifty richest people since its post-Soviet independence began as a controlled nearly half of the country’s gross protest against the government dropping plans domestic product, writes Andrew Wilson in the to forge closer trade ties with the European CFR book Pathways to Freedom. Union, and has since spurred escalating tensions between Russia and Western powers. A reformist tide briefly crested in 2004 when The crisis stems from more than twenty years of the Orange Revolution, set off by a rigged weak governance, a lopsided economy presidential election won by Yanukovich, dominated by oligarchs, heavy reliance on brought Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency. Russia, and sharp differences between Yet infighting among elites hampered reforms, Ukraine’s linguistically, religiously, and and severe economic troubles resurged with ethnically distinct eastern and western regions. the global economic crisis of 2008. The revolution also masked the divide between After the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovich European-oriented western and central in February 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Ukraine and Russian-oriented southern and peninsula and the port city of Sevastopol, and eastern Ukraine. deployed tens of thousands of forces near the border of eastern Ukraine, where conflict Campaigning on a platform of closer ties with erupted between pro-Russian separatists and Russia, Yanukovich won the 2010 presidential the new government in Kiev. Russia’s moves, election. By many accounts, he then reverted including reported military support for to the pattern of corruption and cronyism. His separatist forces, mark a serious challenge to family may have embezzled as much as $8 established principles of world order such as billion to $10 billion a year over three years, sovereignty and nonintervention. according to Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He also Why is Ukraine in Crisis? imprisoned his reformist opponent in the 2010 presidential race, Yulia Tymoshenko, on The country of forty-five million people has charges of abuse of power. struggled with its identity since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukraine has failed Yanukovich continued talks with the EU on a to resolve its internal divisions and build strong trade association agreement, which he political institutions, hampering its ability to signaled he would sign in late2013. implement economic reforms. In the decade (Tymoshenko’s release was one of the following independence, successive presidents conditions set by the EU for the trade allowed oligarchs to gain increasing control association agreement.) But under pressure over the economy while repression against from Russia, he dropped those plans in political opponents intensified. November, citing concerns about European competition. WWW.GLOPOIB.WORDPRESS.COM 3 The decision provoked demonstrations in Kiev Ukraine is also a major economic partner that on what became known as the Euromaidan by Russia would like to incorporate into its protesters seeking to align their future with proposed Eurasian Union, a customs bloc due Europe’s and speaking out against corruption. to be formed in January 2015 whose likely members include Kazakhstan, Belarus, and The Yanukovich government’s crackdown after Armenia. three months of protests, in some cases spurring reprisals by radicalized demonstrators, Ukraine plays an important role in Russia’s caused the bloodiest conflict in the country’s energy trade; its pipelines provide transit to 80 post-Soviet period, with scores killed. percent of the natural gas Russia sends to Yanukovich’s subsequent ouster sowed new European markets, and Ukraine itself is a major divisions between the eastern and western market for Russian gas. Militarily, Ukraine is halves of the country, and fighting between also important to Russia as a buffer state, and pro-Russian separatists and government forces was home to Russia’s Black Sea fleet, based in broke out in April 2014. Separatists in the the Crimean port city of Sevastopol under a regions of Luhansk and Donetsk established bilateral agreement between the two states. self-declared “people’s republics.” Russia considers EU efforts to expand Elections on May 25 brought pro-Western eastward to Ukraine, even through a relatively businessman Petro Poroshenko into power, and limited association agreement, as an alarming he moved to try to reassert central government step that opens the door to others Western control over restive eastern cities. By August, institutions. The EU’s Eastern Partnership the fighting had killed more than 2,000 people Program is aimed at forging tighter bonds with and caused hundreds of thousands to flee their six former Eastern bloc countries, but Russia homes, according to UN officials. Officials in sees it as a stepping stone to organizations Kiev and NATO states accused Russia of such as NATO, whose eastward expansion is arming the separatists and said rebels in regarded by Russia’s security establishment as eastern Ukraine using Russia-supplied ground- a threat. Ukraine belongs to NATO’s to-air missiles were responsible for the Partnership for Peace program, but is seen as downing of a civilian airliner in July 2014, in having little prospect of joining the alliance in which 298 people were killed. Russia denied the foreseeable future. the charges but has continuously deployed thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border Russian president Vladimir Putin has portrayed his country’s role in Ukraine as safeguarding What are Russia's concerns? ethnic Russians worried by lawlessness spreading east from the capital, charges that Russia has strong fraternal ties with Ukraine leaders in Kiev dismiss as provocations. In the dating back to the ninth century and the case of Crimea, Putin has stressed Moscow is founding of Kievan Rus, the first eastern Slavic not imposing its will, but rather, supporting the state, whose capital was Kiev. Ukraine was free choice of the local population, drawing part of Russia for centuries, and the two parallels with the support Western states gave continued to be closely aligned through the to Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence Soviet period, when Ukraine and Russia were from Serbia. Shortly before moving to annex separate republics. “The West must understand Crimea on March 18, Putin told the Russian that, to Russia, Ukraine can never be just parliament that Russia would protect the rights aforeign country,” wrote former U.S. secretary of Russians abroad. of state Henry Kissinger in a Washington Post op-ed WWW.GLOPOIB.WORDPRESS.COM 4 What is the role of the European Union? he peninsula only became part of Ukraine in 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev The EU’s Eastern Partnership Program was transferred it from the Russian Soviet Socialist established in 2009 to expand political and Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist economic ties between the EU and Armenia, Republic in what was seen as a largely Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and symbolic administrative move. The majority- Ukraine, while stopping short of offering Russian residents of Crimea continued to have membership to partner countries. The ill-fated strong ties with Russia. Following the association agreement negotiated by EU dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the two officials and the Yanukovich government new countries reached an agreement to permit involved a comprehensive free-trade deal. A the Russian Black Sea fleet to remain based at number of analysts fault EU officials for the Crimean port of Sevastopol. neglecting the broader geopolitical implications of the deal for Russia, and Overall, Russians make up an estimated 59 declining to map out strategic aims for Europe. percent of the population of Crimea, Ukrainians make up about 23 percent, and After Poroshenko’s election, he pressed Muslim Tatars about 12 percent. forward plans to sign the association agreement and Ukraine did so along with Do Russian moves in Ukraine violate Moldova and Georgia on June 27, 2014. international law? Poroshenko said after signing the agreement: “Ukraine is underlining its sovereign choice in U.S. officials say Russia’s actions in Crimea and favor of membership of the EU.” eastern Ukraine are in breach of international law, including the nonintervention provisions in What is the status of Crimea? the UN Charter; the 1997 Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, Prior to the crisis, Crimea was an autonomous which requires Russia to respect Ukraine’s republic of Ukraine of two million people with territorial integrity; and the 1994 Budapest its own parliament and laws that permitted the Memorandum on Security Assurances. Signed use of the Russian language in everyday life. by the United States, UK, and Russia, that After the ouster of Yanukovich in February document provided security guarantees to 2014, Crimea’s parliament called for a Ukraine in exchange for relinquishing its referendum, in which the peninsula’s 1.5 million nuclear arsenal. voters opted overwhelmingly for union with Russia. Following that vote, Russian legislators For its part, Russia has rejected charges that it passed a
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