2013 On Korea began in December 2006 with the initiation of KEI’s Academic Paper AC Series, a year-long program that provides an opportunity for both leading Korea scholars and new voices from around the world to speak and write on ADEMIC P current events and trends on the Korean Peninsula. Each year, KEI commissions approximately ten papers and distributes them individually to over 5,000 government officials, think tank experts, and scholars around the United States and the world. Authors are invited to the Korea Economic Institute of America to discuss their research before a Washington, DC policy audience. At the conclusion of each series, the papers are compiled APER SERIES and published together as the On Korea volume. To learn more about how to contribute to future Academic Papers Series forums and other programs at KEI, please visit: www.keia.org. ON KOREA ON K OREA Vo lu me Volume 6: 6 North Korea After Kim Jong-il Korean Trends in an Asia-Pacific Century 1800 K St. NW, Suite 1010 Washington, DC 20006 Korean Politics and Security t. 202.464.1982 f. 202.464.1987 www.keia.org ON KOREA 2013: ACADEMIC PAPER SERIES Volume 6 KEI Editorial Board KEI Editors: Abraham Kim, Nicholas Hamisevicz Contract Editor: Gimga Group Design: Gimga Group. Cover photo courtesy of NASA. The Korea Economic Institute of America is registered under the Foreign Agents Regis- tration Act as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the Government of the Repubic of Korea. This material is filed with the Department of Justice, where the required registration statement is available for public inspection. Registration does not indicate U.S. government approval of the contents of this document. KEI is not engaged in the practice of law, does not render legal services, and is not a lobbying organization. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. While this monograph is part of the overall program of the Korea Economic Institute of America endorsed by its Officers, Board of Directors, and Advisory Council, its contents do not necessarily reflect the views of individual members of the Board or of the Advisory Council. Copyright © 2013 Korea Economic Institute of America www.keia.org Printed in the United States of America. ISSN 1937-9196 Contents KEI Board of Directors ...............................................................................i KEI Advisory Council.................................................................................ii About the Korea Economic Institute of America....................................iii Preface....................................................................................................iv North Korea After Kim Jong-il Assessing Political Stability in Post-Kim Jong-il North Korea Hyung-Gu Lynn..........................................................................................................3 Keys to the Kimdom: North Korea’s Economic Heritage and Prospects After Kim Jong-il’s Death Aidan Foster-Carter..................................................................................................23 Chinese Perspectives on North Korea and Korean Unification Sunny Seong-hyon Lee.........................................................................................49 A Convergence of Interests: Prospects for Rason Special Economic Zone Andray Abrahamian............................................................................................69 Korean Trends in an Asia-Pacific Century Bracing for Low Fertility and a Large Elderly Population in South Korea Elizabeth Hervey Stephen........................................................................................83 Advancing Economic Freedom: Key to Ensuring South Korea’s Greater Economic Future Anthony Kim........................................................................................................99 Korean Politics and Security The Politics of Designing Agrarian Affairs in South Korea Albert Park........................................................................................................115 Korean American Voting Behavior Taeku Lee..........................................................................................................135 The Seoul Nuclear Security Summit: How Much of a Success? Miles Pomper....................................................................................................157 i 2013 Volume 6 n ON KOREA KEI Board of Directors Sukhan Kim, Esq. Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld Dr. Yoon-shik Park George Washington University Prof. David Steinberg Georgetown University Dr. Won-ho Kim Hankuk University of Foreign Studies Officers The Honorable Donald Manzullo President & CEO Dr. Abraham Kim Vice President II KEI Advisory Council Chair The Honorable Stephen W. Bosworth The Fletcher School at Tufts University Mr. Bradley Babson His Excellency Tae-sik Lee World Affairs Council of Maine Former Ambassador to the U.S. Dr. Claude Barfield Dr. Young-Sun Lee American Enterprise Institute Yonsei University Dr. John Bennett Dr. Wonhyuk Lim Former KEI President Korea Development Institute Dr. Thomas F. Cargill Mr. Paul M. McGonagle University of Nevada, Reno Consultant His Excellency Yoon-je Cho The Honorable Mark C. Minton Sogang University The Korea Society Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt Dr. G. Mustafa Mohatarem American Enterprise Institute General Motors Corporation Mr. Robert Fallon Dr. Chung-in Moon Columbia Business School Yonsei University Mr. Gordon Flake Dr. Hugh T. Patrick Maureen & Mike Mansfield Foundation Columbia University The Honorable Thomas C. Hubbard The Honorable Ernest H. Preeg The Korea Society/McLarty Associates Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI The Honorable James A. Kelly Dr. Mitchell B. Reiss EAP Associates, Inc. Washington College Mr. Andrew B. Kim Mr. Alan Romberg Sit/Kim International Henry L. Stimson Center Mr. Spencer Kim Dr. Jeffrey R. Shafer Pacific Century Institute JR Shafer Insights Mr. Bruce Klingner His Excellency Joun-yung Sun Heritage Foundation Kyungnam University The Honorable James T. Laney Mr. W. Robert Warne Emory University Former KEI President Dr. Kirk W. Larsen Mr. Joseph A.B. Winder Brigham Young University Winder International/Former KEI President III 2013 Volume 6 n ON KOREA About the Korea Economic Institute of America The Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) is a Washington, D.C.–based nonprofit policy and research institute designed to promote dialogue and understanding between the U.S. and South Korean governments, policy communities, and academia. Since its founding in 1982, the institute has actively organized programs across the United States and widely published research on a diverse range of economic, political, security, and societal issues, including U.S.- Korea trade and investments, the North Korea nuclear program, alliance issues, the role of Korean Americans in U.S. politics, and China’s growing role in the Asia-Pacific region. Some of KEI’s current efforts include: • Every year, KEI produces three celebrated compilation volumes— On Korea, Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies, and Korea’s Economy —that are used by experts and universities all over the world. • KEI brings Korea experts and government officials to U.S. colleges and civic groups to lecture on current events related to the Korean peninsula. • The institute reaches several thousand listeners globally with its podcast show, Korean Kontext, where Korean and American policy, civic, and cultural leaders are engaged in a casual interview about recent events, their work, and personal lives. For more information about these programs and upcoming events at KEI, please visit our website, www.keia.org. KEI is contractually affiliated with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), a public policy research institute located in Seoul and funded by the government of the Republic of Korea. IV Preface The Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) is pleased to issue this sixth volume of On Korea, compiling the KEI Academic Papers released in 2012. KEI Academic Papers are commissioned following a call for proposals to academic and policy communities in the United States, South Korea, and around the globe. The objective is to provide opportunity for recognized specialists and new voices to present fresh research and innovative works on Korea. These papers are original pieces exclusively for this volume, and most of the authors also presented their findings before a Washington, D.C. policy audience. KEI prepares each paper for publication and distributes it to more than 5,000 recipients in governments, the private sector, policy institutes, and educational communities around the world. The papers in this volume address some of the key issues that impacted Korea in 2012 and some important trends that will influence future policies. In the first year following the death of Kim Jong-il, this volume contains four papers focused on North Korea, two specifically examining the political and economic developments in North Korea after the death of Kim Jong-il. Other articles in this volume analyze South Korea’s hosting of the Nuclear Security Summit as well as the effect of agricultural issues on politics in South Korea. Lastly, this volume has excellent pieces on South Korean demographics and economics and a look at the effect of Korean American voting behavior in U.S. elections. KEI strives to choose papers that are well balanced, policy relevant, and make a contribution to areas not traditionally covered