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Revisiting Afghanistan's Modern REVISITING AFGHANISTAN’S MODERN POLITICAL HISTORY: THE ROLE OF ETHNIC INCLUSION ON REGIME STABILITY A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By RAHIMULLAH AKRAMI B.A., Berea College, 2014 2019 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL December 6, 2018 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Rahimullah Akrami ENTITLED Revisiting Afghanistan’s Modern Political History: The Role of Ethnic Inclusion on Regime Stability BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. ______________________________ Liam D. Anderson, Ph.D. Thesis Director ______________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: ___________________________________ Liam D. Anderson, Ph.D. ___________________________________ Pramod Kantha, Ph.D. ___________________________________ Carlos E. Costa, Ph.D. ___________________________________ Barry Milligan, Ph.D. Interim Dean of the Graduate School ABSTRACT Akrami, Rahimullah. M.A. Department of Political Science, Wright State University, 2019. Revisiting Afghanistan’s Modern Political History: The Role of Ethnic Inclusion on Regime Stability This study examines the role of ethnic inclusion as a factor of regime stability in Afghanistan through an historical case analysis from 1880 until 2009. By utilizing case study research methods, the goal of the study is to examine all the past regimes in order to show whether there is a relationship between the dependent variable regime stability and the independent variable ethnic inclusion. The study assumes the hypothesis that an ethnically inclusive regime will be stable while an ethnically exclusive regime will be unstable. Five indicators are used to measure each variable respectively. Each indicator is assigned a score of 1 or 0, with a total possible score of 0 or 5. The differences of the combined scores on each variable are utilized to test the hypotheses, where a lower denominator indicates robustness and a higher denominator indicates weakness. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO: TRENDS IN LITERATURE ............................................................................... 5 The Origins and Application of Ethnicity in Afghanistan ............................................................ 5 The Impact of Ethnic Politics on the Afghanistan as a Nation-State ......................................... 8 Managing Ethnic Minorities through a Democratic Framework ............................................. 12 Engineering a Democratic Approach to Accommodate Ethnic Societies ................................ 13 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY AND VARIABLE MEASUREMENT .............. 16 Research Design ................................................................................................................................ 16 Operationalization of Variables .................................................................................................... 16 Hypothesis .......................................................................................................................................... 19 Case Selection .................................................................................................................................... 20 Table 1. 1: Selected Case ........................................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER FOUR: CASE REVIEW & ANALYSIS ................................................................... 21 Abdur Rahman, (ruled) 1880–1901 .............................................................................................. 21 Table 1: A. Rahman Regime Scores ...................................................................................................... 29 Table 2: A. Rahman Regime Scores ...................................................................................................... 30 Habibullah Khan, 1901-1919 ......................................................................................................... 32 Table 3: H. Khan Regime Scores ............................................................................................................. 40 Table 4: H. Khan Regime Scores ............................................................................................................. 41 Amanullah Khan, 1919-1929 ......................................................................................................... 42 Table 5: A. Khan Regime Scores ............................................................................................................. 53 Table 6: A. Khan Regime Scores ............................................................................................................. 54 iv Habibullah Kalakani, 1929 ............................................................................................................ 55 Table 7: H. Kalakani Regime Scores ..................................................................................................... 62 Table 8: H. Kalakani Regime Scores ..................................................................................................... 63 Nadir Khan, 1929-1933 ................................................................................................................... 65 Table 9: N. Khan Regime Scores ............................................................................................................. 71 Table 10: N. Khan Regime Scores .......................................................................................................... 72 Zahir Shah, 1933—1973 ................................................................................................................. 74 Table 11: Z. Shah Regime Scores ........................................................................................................... 85 Table 12: Z. Shah Regime Scores ........................................................................................................... 87 Daud Khan, 1973-1978 .................................................................................................................... 89 Table 13: D. Khan Regime Scores .......................................................................................................... 96 Table 14: D. Khan Regime Scores .......................................................................................................... 96 Nur Muhammad Tarakai, 1978-1979 .......................................................................................... 98 Table 15: N. M. Tarakai Regime Scores ............................................................................................. 102 Table 16: N. M. Tarakai Regime Scores ............................................................................................. 103 Hafizullah Amin, 1979 .................................................................................................................. 105 Table 17: H. Amin Regime Scores ........................................................................................................ 107 Table 18: H. Amin Regime Scores ........................................................................................................ 108 Babrak Karmal, 1979-1986 .......................................................................................................... 110 Table 19: B. Karmal Regime Scores .................................................................................................... 115 Table 20: B. Karmal Regime Scores .................................................................................................... 116 M. Najibullah Ahmadzai, 1986-1992 ......................................................................................... 118 v Table 21: M. N. Ahmadzai Regime ....................................................................................................... 124 Table 22: M. N. Ahmadzai Regime Scores ........................................................................................ 125 The Mujahideen & Burhanuddin Rabbani, 1992-1996 ......................................................... 127 Table 23: B. Rabbani Regime Scores .................................................................................................. 133 Table 24: B. Rabbani Regime Scores .................................................................................................. 134 The Taliban & Mullah M. Omar, 1996-2001 ........................................................................... 136 Table 25: M. M. Omar Regime Scores ................................................................................................ 146 Table 26: M. M. Omar Regime Scores ................................................................................................ 147 Hamid Karzai, 2002-2009 ............................................................................................................. 148 Table 27: H. Karzai Regime Scores ..................................................................................................... 155 Table 28: H. Karzai Regime Scores ..................................................................................................... 156 CHAPTER
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