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Road to Peace in Afghanistan: Its History and Future

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Road to Peace in Afghanistan: Its History and Future Moderator’s introduction to the workshop Afghanistan and China are close neighbors. Afghanistan is regarded as the heart of Asia and is an important part of the ancient Silk Road, with a very important geostrategic value. The Afghan war has lasted for 40 years, which has made it the home of several transnational terrorist forces. The long-term competition among world powers in Afghanistan has complicated its domestic political and social relations. There was a turning point in 2020. On February 29, 2020, the Taliban and the US reached a peace agreement, and on September 12, the Afghan internal reconciliation process was officially launched. In this context, relevant experts and scholars were invited to participate in this workshop to review the history of political reconciliation in Afghanistan, analyze current major issues, and look forward to the prospects for peace. Regarding the current situation in Afghanistan, the participants believed that the change of American attitude was the key driver of the US-Taliban agreement. The reasons for the change of attitude are as follows: adjustment of national security strategies, exhaustion caused by long-term war, the high cost of troops, and so on. The US adjusting its strategy to Afghanistan is for its own interests, not for peace in Afghanistan. At present, the reconciliation process among Afghans has begun, but the negotiations have not yet officially started, and the negotiation 1 procedures are still being discussed. There are serious differences between the Taliban and the Kabul government. There are two key points of contention. First, the Taliban advocates the establishment of Shariah rule based on the Hanafi school, and the Afghan government objects to this in the name of “inclusive peace.” Second, the Taliban claim that the US-Taliban agreement is the basis for intra-Afghan reconciliation, but the Kabul government does not agree. Experts believe that the Afghan government’s position amid the current political reconciliation is very embarrassing. The main problem facing the government itself is a fierce factional struggle and severe corruption. The future stability and development of Afghanistan require distinguished leaders, effective government administration, and strong military and police forces, as well as the development of the economy, culture and education. Afghan political and cultural conditions determine that it will not completely rely on any country in international relations, but will try to maintain its neutrality and independence. Afghan issue has never been simple. Most of its problems are caused by foreign countries, and solutions also require foreign help. Regarding the future of the situation in Afghanistan, the participants believe that, first, if Trump is re-elected, the withdrawal of US troops will be a foregone conclusion. The US will not leave Afghanistan. But it is not interested in the specific 2 details of the future political system of Afghanistan. It only hopes that the future Afghan government can cooperate with the implementation of US strategy. There are many difficulties impeding reconciliation among the Afghan people. The solution is to find a power distribution plan accepted by all parties, with the international community continuing to provide support and assistance. Second, peace talks are better than war, but peace talks are not yet true peace. The current peace talks may not reach an agreement. Even if a peace agreement is reached, it does not mean that peace can be achieved. Since 2019, the ISKP and Al-Qaida have reorganized and their strength has grown significantly. Third, the friendly relations between China and Afghanistan should be further developed, and people-to-people exchanges and commercial exchanges should be promoted. Participants proposed that the Chinese media should help Afghanistan build a positive image in the international community and facilitate peace in Afghanistan. The US and regional powers have their own interests in Afghanistan. Attention must be paid to the negative effects of the US. Qian Xuemei October 13, 2020 3 The 38th Broadyard Workshop Road to Peace in Afghanistan: Its History and Future October 12, 2020 Qian Xuemei, an associate professor at the School of International Studies of Peking University, moderated the first part of the workshop. Zhang Min, the former chargé d’affaires of the Chinese Embassy in Afghanistan, gave a presentation on “Prospects for Peace in Afghanistan.” His lecture included the following 13 points. First, Afghanistan’s political structure has been relatively loose since its founding. In different historical periods, the western, southeastern, and northern parts of Afghanistan belonged to the Persian Empire, the Indian Empire, and to various dynasties of Central Asia. Persian, Indian, and Central Asian cultures have therefore strongly influenced these regions. In 1747, Ahmed, a young officer born in the Pashtun tribe, extricated Afghanistan from the Persian Empire and established a unified country. It was a tribal union maintained by fearsome military power. The people’s sense of unity was relatively weak, but their national identity and tribal concepts were very profound. In the past 200 years of living together, various ethnic groups have merged to a certain extent. However, since the 1980s, the war has alienated the different ethnic groups. Second, it has been a glorious tradition of the Afghans to pursue independence and resist foreign invaders. In the struggle against invaders, the Afghan people have shown their independence, courage, 4 and love for freedom. They have protected their homeland with their lives and show their gallant character. Third, at the end of the 19th century, Emir Rahman determined the territory of today’s Afghanistan and established an autocratic monarchy. He forcefully suppressed and carried out bloody extermination of the rebellious Pashtun and non-Pashtun uprisings, and finally realized the relative peace and stability of this country for more than half a century, and, at the same time established a strong national army. Fourth, from 1973 to 2001, Afghanistan experienced regime changes through military means four times. During this period, the Soviet Union implemented a military occupation of Afghanistan to expand its influence. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a large-scale armed conflict broke out in Afghanistan, causing a lot of civilian casualties. Fifth, in 1996, the Taliban defeated the Mujahideen and established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. They exercised strict religious rule and practiced fundamentalism, which further deepened ethnic contradictions. The Taliban’s actions caused other ethnic groups to establish alliances with each other, resulting in the isolation of the Pashtuns. Sixth, in 2001, the US and its allies sent troops to overthrow the Taliban regime and implemented Western parliamentary democracy in Afghanistan. Under this system, Afghan government departments were allocated proportionately according to ethnic and political 5 factions. The Tajiks of the Northern Alliance controlled the three most important departments of national defense, foreign affairs, and internal affairs. They excluded the Taliban and some moderates. The reorganized Taliban regarded the new government as a puppet of the US. They continued to call themselves the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Their activities covered more than half of the country’s territory, and they infiltrated their forces into Kabul, launched terrorist attacks on the US military, and prepared for the next step. Seventh, the US must be involved in any peace plan for Afghanistan. The US spent about $750 billion in Afghanistan over 19 years, and the number of its soldiers killed and wounded reached more than 2,000. However, it has gained nothing for it. At present, in the context of the global contraction of US forces, and the strengthening of its Indo-Pacific strategy, it is almost certain that the US will withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. The US initially identified the Taliban as a terrorist organization, but it now has had to have face-to-face talks with them. This change shows that the US military is eager to get out of Afghanistan. Although the Taliban are eager to drive foreign troops out of Afghanistan from their territory, at the same time they have been insisting on their terms and are striving to let the US make enormous concessions. Eighth, in theory, Afghanistan will begin the peace process after the US withdraws its troops. The prolonged war has destroyed the relatively stable social pattern and structure of Afghanistan and deepened and solidified its original social contradictions and problems. 6 To avoid new large-scale conflicts, all parties must sign an agreement after the US withdraws its troops. Ninth, Afghanistan needs a distinguished leader and an effective government in the future. The distribution of power after peace is a universal problem, especially in Afghanistan. In the past 100 years, aside from King Zahir, none of Afghanistan’s top leaders have died a natural death. Since the Mujahideen came to power in 1992, they began to distribute the power of various government departments according to ethnic faction. In the distribution, the Taliban had big ambitions and put forward the demand that it should control all key government departments. However, the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, and other ethnic groups also want to be in power and participate in politics. They do not want to allow the Pashtuns to monopolize power. Tenth, the main tasks of the current military and police forces in Afghanistan are as follows: maintain domestic peace and stability, and deter and weaken the formation of local warlords and tribal forces. However, due to the difficult reality of the lives of the individual soldiers and policemen, the collective will of those forces is not firm. The government needs to improve the benefits it gives to the army to build a mighty national army in the future. Of course, this also requires funds, so the government needs to make a proper budget. Eleventh, religious fanatics such as Al-Qaida and ISIL fighters in Afghanistan must be dealt with severely.
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