Possible US Return to Iran Nuclear Agreement

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Possible US Return to Iran Nuclear Agreement Possible U.S. Return to Iran Nuclear Agreement: Frequently Asked Questions January 29, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46663 SUMMARY R46663 Possible U.S. Return to Iran Nuclear January 29, 2021 Agreement: Frequently Asked Questions Kenneth Katzman President Joseph Biden and members of his Administration have expressed an intention to Specialist in Middle reverse various Trump Administration policies toward Iran, particularly the Trump Eastern Affairs Administration’s decision to end its participation in the 2015 multilateral nuclear agreement known as the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA). This report provides background Paul K. Kerr and analysis on the agreement, the conditions under which the United States might re-enter it, Specialist in and potential legal, congressional, and regional implications. Nonproliferation The JCPOA, which was finalized on July 14, 2015, by Iran and the United States and five other powers (Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), exchanged relief from Jennifer K. Elsea international sanctions for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The Obama Administration Legislative Attorney called the JCPOA a significant diplomatic achievement that would accomplish the core U.S. national security goal of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The Trump Dianne E. Rennack Administration asserted that the JCPOA did not address the broad range of Iran’s objectionable Specialist in Foreign Policy behaviors and that JCPOA-mandated limitations on Iranian nuclear activities did not justify the Legislation sanctions relief provided. In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced that the United States would exit the JCPOA and would instead apply “maximum pressure” on Iran’s economy Clayton Thomas in an attempt to change its behavior more broadly, centered on enforcement and imposition of Analyst in Middle Eastern comprehensive economic sanctions on Iran. All U.S. sanctions that had been suspended to Affairs implement the JCPOA were reactivated as of November 5, 2018. New U.S. sanctions beyond those in place prior to the JCPOA also were imposed. In May 2019, Iran began exceeding limitations on its nuclear program that were stipulated in the JCPOA. In a September 13, 2020 editorial, then-presidential candidate and former Vice President Joseph Biden called the maximum pressure policy a “dangerous failure” and indicated an intent, if elected, to return to an Iran policy closer to that implemented during the Obama Administration. He indicated that the United States would resume implementing all of its JCPOA commitments if Iran were to do so. Such a step would be “a starting point for follow-on negotiations” on such issues as Iran’s development of ballistic missiles and its support for regional armed factions. Since the start of the Biden Administration on January 20, 2021, Biden Administration cabinet nominees and officials have expressed that they will move forward with the policy shift on Iran. However, some experts have argued that the Biden Administration should maintain the leverage gained by U.S. sanctions in hopes of renegotiating the JCPOA to include binding limits on many other aspects of Iran’s objectionable behavior. Iranian leaders have issued several demands of the new Administration but have indicated that they might be willing to undertake a mutual return to the stipulations of the JCPOA. Despite interest expressed by all signatories, the United States’ return to the JCPOA might be a complicated process. For its part, Iran would need to undertake significant, verified steps in order to resume implementing all of its JCPOA commitments. A U.S. return to JCPOA implementation would require that the Biden Administration suspend those sanctions that had been suspended in 2016, and also many of the additional sanctions imposed during the Trump Administration. Some in Congress might question the authorities of the Administration to ease these sanctions on Iran, if there were a decision to do so. Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INARA, P.L. 114-17), any changes to the JCPOA would require Administration reporting to Congress, which could open the door for congressional review of the entire agreement. Some regional governments that have opposed the JCPOA have requested to be included in or consulted about a return to full implementation of the JCPOA—an insistence that, if met, could further complicate any U.S.-Iran talks on a mutual return to the JCPOA. For further reading on the JCPOA, U.S. sanctions on Iran, the Trump Administration maximum pressure policy, and the broader range of threats posed by Iran, see the following: CRS Report R43333, Iran Nuclear Agreement and U.S. Exit, by Paul K. Kerr and Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL32048, Iran: Internal Politics and U.S. Policy and Options, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RS20871, Iran Sanctions, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report R44017, Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report R43311, Iran: U.S. Economic Sanctions and the Authority to Lift Restrictions, by Dianne E. Rennack; and CRS Report R46148, U.S. Killing of Qasem Soleimani: Frequently Asked Questions, coordinated by Clayton Thomas. Congressional Research Service Possible U.S. Return to Iran Nuclear Agreement: Frequently Asked Questions Contents 1. Introduction: What is the new Administration’s Position on Resuming Implementation of the JCPOA? ............................................................................................. 1 Should the Administration seek to change and expand the JCPOA? ........................................ 3 What sanctions relief would be required? ................................................................................. 4 U.S. Sanctions that Remained in Place under the JCPOA .................................................. 5 Sanctions Re-Imposed and Newly Imposed by the Trump Administration ........................ 6 Sanctions Imposed After the U.S. Exit from the JCPOA .................................................... 7 What does Iran need to do to return to full compliance? .......................................................... 8 Actions Exceeding JCPOA Limits ..................................................................................... 9 Verification and Monitoring .............................................................................................. 10 Would Congress review a U.S. return to the JCPOA? ............................................................. 11 What is the President’s authority to ease sanctions in the process of returning to the JCPOA? ................................................................................................................................ 14 Would regional countries that are not JCPOA parties be involved in negotiations on the U.S. return to the JCPOA? ............................................................................................. 15 What are Congress’ options? ................................................................................................... 17 Contacts Author Information ........................................................................................................................ 18 Congressional Research Service Possible U.S. Return to Iran Nuclear Agreement: Frequently Asked Questions 1. Introduction: What is the new Administration’s Position on Resuming Implementation of the JCPOA? One of the major questions facing the Biden Administration is U.S. policy toward Iran, whose government U.S. officials have long assessed as posing a multiplicity of threats to the United States and its allies and partners in the Middle East region.1 The Biden Administration has argued that the Trump Administration decision in 2018 to cease implementing U.S. commitments pursuant to the JCPOA2 did not compel Iran to change its behavior in any area of contention, including ballistic missile development and material support to regional armed factions, and furthermore prompted Iran to respond by exceeding JCPOA-mandated limits on its nuclear program. The new Administration has expressed its intent to implement an Iran policy that is similar to that pursued by the Obama Administration, centered on a return to the JCPOA, and rooted in a core judgment that preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon would facilitate U.S. efforts to counter the broad range of threats posed by Iran. President Biden outlined his rationale for the policy shift during the 2020 presidential campaign in an editorial on September 13, 2020, writing:3 This past month has proven that Trump's Iran policy is a dangerous failure. At the United Nations, Trump could not rally a single one of America's closest allies to extend the UN arms embargo on Iran. Next, Trump tried to unilaterally reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, only to have virtually all the UN Security Council members unite to reject his gambit. Now there are reports that Iran has stockpiled 10 times as much enriched uranium as it had when President Barack Obama and I left office. We urgently need to change course... I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations. With our allies, we will work to strengthen and extend the nuclear deal's provisions, while also addressing other issues of concern …. … we will continue to push back against Iran's destabilizing activities,
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